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Tax Reforms in Transition Economies – A Mixed Record and Complex Future Agenda 转型经济体的税收改革:喜忧参半的记录和复杂的未来议程
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1440219
Marek A. Dąbrowski, Magdalena M. Tomczynska
The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the diversified picture of the tax systems and tax reforms in the former communist countries after the first decade of their transition from a centrally planned to a market economy system. While CEB countries are seriously advanced in synchronization of their tax systems with those of the EU, the countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) suffer a lot of instability and distortions in this sphere (and Balkan countries staying in the middle between both groups). Thus, the CIS countries, including Russia and Ukraine, face a challenge of further substantial tax reforms related to list of existing taxes and quasi-tax obligations, construction of basic taxes, tax administration and procedures, issue of fiscal federalism (particularly in Russia), and many others. The authors' intention is to give the overall characteristics of the tax systems in two broad groups of countries (i.e. the EU candidates, and the CIS+ countries) with a special emphasis devoted to principal shortcomings of tax regulations, and remaining challenges of tax reform.
本文的目的是展示前共产主义国家在从中央计划经济体制向市场经济体制过渡的第一个十年后税收制度和税收改革的多样化图景。虽然行政首长协调会国家在其税收制度与欧盟同步方面取得了重大进展,但独立国家联合体(独联体)国家在这一领域遭受了许多不稳定和扭曲(巴尔干国家处于两个集团之间)。因此,包括俄罗斯和乌克兰在内的独联体国家面临着进一步实质性税收改革的挑战,这些改革涉及现有税收和准税收义务的清单、基本税收的建设、税收管理和程序、财政联邦制问题(特别是在俄罗斯)以及许多其他问题。作者的意图是给出两大类国家(即欧盟候选国和独联体+国家)税收制度的总体特征,特别强调税收法规的主要缺点,以及税收改革的剩余挑战。
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引用次数: 15
Indicators of Currency Crisis: Empirical Analysis of Some Emerging and Transition Economies 货币危机的指标:一些新兴和转型经济体的实证分析
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.1445379
M. Jakubiak
This paper focuses on the measurement of a contemporaneous currency crisis. The analysis covers 14 "emerging" or "transforming" economies that experienced episodes of currency crises over the last decade. It adds to well-known examples relatively littleknown evidence on the crisis depth in some of the CIS countries. Following the Eichengreen, Rose, and Wyplosz (1994) definition of a currency crisis, the emphasis is primarily put on the examination of changes in relative reserves, exchange rates, and real interest rates during periods of exchange rate pressure. Other measures of the depth of a currency crisis as well as measures of external vulnerability are also discussed. The findings support the adequacy of the Eichengreen, Rose, and Wyplosz (1994) definition in analyzing crisis developments in emerging economies.
本文关注的是对同时期货币危机的度量。该分析涵盖了过去10年经历过数次货币危机的14个“新兴”或“转型”经济体。它在一些独联体国家危机深度的众所周知的例子之外,又增加了鲜为人知的证据。根据Eichengreen、Rose和Wyplosz(1994)对货币危机的定义,重点主要放在对汇率压力期间相对储备、汇率和实际利率变化的检查上。本文还讨论了衡量货币危机深度的其他指标以及衡量外部脆弱性的指标。研究结果支持了Eichengreen、Rose和Wyplosz(1994)定义在分析新兴经济体危机发展时的充分性。
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引用次数: 9
The Lisbon Strategy at Midterm: Expectations and Reality 中期里斯本战略:期望与现实
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1414888
P. Lenain, Vicente Royuela
CASE - Center for Social and Economic Research inspired an extensive discussion on the Lisbon Strategy, its goals and objectives, successes and failures. The fervent debate, which took place in Warsaw at the end of 2004, investigated the future of the Strategy in Europe and Poland. The publication, which we are proud to present, is a result of this discussion. The Polish context for achieving the Lisbon goals was explored at a conference on December 9, 2004 entitled “The Lisbon Strategy in Poland: Directions of Necessary Reforms”. Earlier, however, answering the question whether the Lisbon objectives successfully support competitiveness in Europe was of chief concern to a group of scholars and specialists attending the conference entitled “Lisbon Strategy as an Effective Tool of Increasing Competitiveness in Europe?” (The meeting took place in Warsaw on November 8, 2004). The conference dialogue resulted in systematic and inquisitive debate on the causes of successes and failures of the Lisbon Strategy against the background of the current economy in the united Europe. The perspectives for the future implementation of the Strategy and its desired effects also proved to be of great concern. The arguments presented by the authors of the present publication continue the discussion, which has now been enriched by the contributions by conference participants.
CASE -社会和经济研究中心激发了对《里斯本战略》、其目标和目的、成功与失败的广泛讨论。2004年底在华沙举行的激烈辩论调查了该战略在欧洲和波兰的未来。我们自豪地向大家介绍的这份出版物就是这次讨论的结果。在2004年12月9日举行的题为“波兰的里斯本战略:必要改革的方向”的会议上,探讨了波兰实现里斯本目标的背景。然而,早些时候,参加题为“里斯本战略是提高欧洲竞争力的有效工具”会议的一群学者和专家主要关心的问题是,里斯本目标是否成功地支持了欧洲的竞争力?(会议于2004年11月8日在华沙举行)。会议对话的结果是,在欧洲统一的当前经济背景下,就《里斯本战略》成功和失败的原因进行了系统和好奇的辩论。未来执行该战略的前景及其预期效果也证明是令人极为关切的。本出版物作者提出的论点继续了讨论,现在会议与会者的贡献使讨论更加丰富。
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引用次数: 2
Predicting Currency Crises, the Ultimate Significance of Macroeconomic Fundamentals in Linear Specifications with Nonlinear Extensions 预测货币危机:具有非线性扩展的线性规范下宏观经济基本面的终极意义
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1440222
Marcin Sasin
Informative content of macroeconomic fundamentals with respect to currency crisis prediction is reassessed for the period of 1990s on the panel of 46 developed and emerging economies. In the first part the paper develops a model for currency crisis prediction. The distinction is made between variables emphasized by 'first generation' and 'second generation' models. Special attention is directed towards multiple equilibria and contagion phenomena. Considerable amount of predictability is found, particularly on behalf of standard leading crisis indicators, such as overvaluation of the real exchange rate and the level of foreign exchange reserves. Multiple equilibria don't get much support from the data while contagion effect is obviously working – apparently through various channels. In the second part the relationship between model specification and the significance of coefficients is investigated in the attempt to ultimately evaluate what can be expected from empirical implementation of crisis prediction. An average predictive power of such models and employed variables is assessed.
由46个发达和新兴经济体组成的小组对1990年代期间有关货币危机预测的宏观经济基本面的信息内容进行了重新评估。在第一部分中,本文建立了一个货币危机预测模型。区分“第一代”和“第二代”模型所强调的变量。特别关注多重均衡和传染现象。其中发现了相当多的可预测性,特别是在实际汇率高估和外汇储备水平等标准主要危机指标方面。多重均衡并没有得到足够的数据支持,而传染效应显然在起作用——显然是通过各种渠道。在第二部分中,研究了模型规格与系数显著性之间的关系,试图最终评估从危机预测的经验实施中可以预期的结果。评估这些模型和所用变量的平均预测能力。
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引用次数: 19
The Economics of the 'European Neighbourhood Policy': An Initial Assessment “欧洲邻国政策”的经济学:初步评估
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1441851
Susanne Milcher, B. Slay
This paper describes the general framework of the EU’s emerging relationship with its new neighbours and investigates the potential economic impact of the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP), both for the EU itself and for its neighbours. In particular, it seeks to develop an answer to the question of whether the ENP is sufficiently attractive so as to induce the governments in neighbourhood countries to adopt (or accelerate the adoption of) the types of economic and governance reforms that were implemented in the new member states during their accession processes. Although the specifics of the ENP are still being developed, the lack of incentives as regards to unclear accession to the EU is identified as the main weakness of the ENP. Economically, the ENP seeks to ease trade restrictions through the implementation of legislative approximation and convergence with EU standards, before accessing the EU’s single market can become a reality. Positively though, is that the access to the single market could improve significantly under the ENP. As experienced by the Central European states, FDI is instrumental to transform the economies of the Western CIS and the Caucasus. The ENP can be a supportive framework for improving investor confidence. Likewise, the new European Neighbourhood Instrument can add more coherence in technical assistance, and provide more financial support for creating capacities for trade infrastructures and institutional and private sector development. Finally, measures to promote increased labour migration between the new neighbours and the enlarged EU may be worth to put on the agenda for the future development and impact of the ENP.
本文描述了欧盟与其新邻国的新兴关系的总体框架,并调查了欧洲邻国政策(ENP)对欧盟本身及其邻国的潜在经济影响。特别是,它试图找到一个问题的答案,即ENP是否具有足够的吸引力,以诱使邻国政府采用(或加速采用)在新成员国加入过程中实施的经济和治理改革类型。虽然环境政策的具体内容仍在制定中,但人们认为环境政策的主要弱点是在不明确加入欧盟方面缺乏激励措施。在经济上,ENP寻求在进入欧盟单一市场成为现实之前,通过实施立法近似和与欧盟标准趋同来放松贸易限制。积极的一面是,在ENP下,单一市场的准入可能会显著改善。正如中欧国家所经历的那样,外国直接投资有助于改变独联体西部和高加索地区的经济。环境政策可以成为提高投资者信心的支持性框架。同样,新的《欧洲邻国文书》可以在技术援助方面增加更多的连贯性,并为建立贸易基础设施以及机构和私营部门发展的能力提供更多的财政支持。最后,促进新邻国和扩大后的欧盟之间劳动力迁移的措施可能值得列入ENP未来发展和影响的议程。
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引用次数: 21
Comparative Notes on Pension Developments and Reforms in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania 捷克共和国、匈牙利、波兰和罗马尼亚的养恤金发展和改革比较
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1445375
S. Gomulka
Pension systems and pension expenditures show large variations among countries worldwide. This variation appears to reflect mainly demographic factors and differences in the level of insurance protection, the latter tending to increase with the level of development. The focus of this paper is pension developments and reforms in the four transition countries: the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania during the 1990s. Our major factual finding is that Poland and Romania are clear outliers among the FOUR in terms of key pensions statistics. The paper concludes that the greater pension expenditures in Hungary and Poland are in part inherited (especially in Poland) and in part caused by the more radical restructuring reforms, and that these greater expenditures have in turn prompted these two countries to start replacing gradually their PAYG-DB system with a three-pillar mixed system, with private pension funds constituting a large component of the reformed system.
养恤金制度和养恤金支出在世界各国之间差别很大。这种差异似乎主要反映了人口因素和保险保护水平的差异,后者往往随着发展水平的提高而增加。本文的重点是四个转型期国家:捷克共和国、匈牙利、波兰和罗马尼亚在20世纪90年代的养老金发展和改革。我们的主要事实发现是,就关键养老金统计数据而言,波兰和罗马尼亚显然是四国中的异常值。本文的结论是,匈牙利和波兰较大的养老金支出部分是继承的(特别是在波兰),部分是由更激进的重组改革造成的,这些较大的支出反过来促使这两个国家开始逐步用三支柱混合体系取代现收现付养老金制度,私人养老基金构成改革后体系的重要组成部分。
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引用次数: 6
Currency Crises in Emerging - Market Economics: Causes, Consequences and Policy Lessons 新兴市场经济中的货币危机:原因、后果和政策教训
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1432337
Marek A. Dąbrowski
Currency crises have been recorded for a few hundreds years but their frequency increased in the second half of the 20th century along with a rapid expansion of a number of fiat currencies. Increased integration and sophistication of financial markets brought new forms and more global character of the crises episodes. Eichengreen, Rose and Wyplosz (1994) propose the operational definition, which helps to select the episodes most closely fitting the intuitive understanding of a currency crisis (a sudden decline in confidence towards a specific currency). Among fundamental causes of currency crises one can point to the excessive expansion and over-borrowing of the public and private sectors, and inconsistent and nontransparent economic policies. Over-expansion and overborrowing manifest themselves in an excessive current account deficit, currency overvaluation, increasing debt burden, insufficient international reserves, and deterioration of other frequently analyzed indicators. Inconsistent policies (including the so-called intermediate exchange rate regimes) increase market uncertainty and can trigger speculative attack against the domestic currency. After a crisis has already happened, the ability to manage economic policies in a consistent and credible way becomes crucial for limiting the crisis' scope, duration and negative consequences. Among the dilemmas that the authorities face in such circumstances is the decision on readjustment of an exchange rate regime, as the previous regime is usually the first institutional victim of any successful speculative attack. The consequences of currency crises are usually severe and typically involve output and employment losses, fall in real incomes of a population, deep contraction in investment and capital flight. Also the credibility of domestic economic policies is ruined. In some cases a crisis can serve as the economic and political catharsis: devaluation helps to temporarily restore competitiveness and improve a current account position, the crisis shock brings the new, reform-oriented government, and politicians may draw some lessons for future. The responsible macroeconomic policy can help to diminish a risk of an occurrence of a currency crisis. It involves balanced and transparent fiscal accounts, proper monetary-fiscal policy mix, and low inflation, avoiding indexation of nominal variables and intermediate monetary/ exchange rate regimes. On the microeconomic level key elements include privatization, demonopolization and introduction of efficient competition policy, prudential regulation of the financial sector, trade openness, and simple, fair and transparent tax system. All the above should help elimination of soft budget constraints, overborrowing on the side of both private and public sector and moral hazard problems. All these measures need to be strengthened by legal reforms, efficient and fair judiciary system, implementation of international accounting, reporting and disclosure standa
货币危机已经记录了几百年,但在20世纪下半叶,随着一些法定货币的迅速扩张,它们的频率有所增加。金融市场的日益一体化和复杂化带来了危机事件的新形式和更大的全球性。Eichengreen, Rose和Wyplosz(1994)提出了操作性定义,这有助于选择最符合对货币危机(对特定货币的信心突然下降)的直觉理解的事件。在货币危机的根本原因中,人们可以指出公共和私人部门的过度扩张和过度借贷,以及不一致和不透明的经济政策。过度扩张和过度借贷表现为经常账户赤字过大、货币估值过高、债务负担增加、国际储备不足以及其他经常分析的指标恶化。不一致的政策(包括所谓的中间汇率制度)增加了市场的不确定性,并可能引发对本国货币的投机性攻击。在危机已经发生之后,以一致和可信的方式管理经济政策的能力对于限制危机的范围、持续时间和负面后果至关重要。在这种情况下,当局面临的困境之一是对汇率制度进行再调整的决定,因为在任何成功的投机攻击中,前一种制度通常是第一个制度性受害者。货币危机的后果通常很严重,通常涉及产出和就业损失、人口实际收入下降、投资严重萎缩和资本外逃。此外,国内经济政策的可信度也被毁了。在某些情况下,危机可以作为经济和政治的宣泄剂:货币贬值有助于暂时恢复竞争力并改善经常账户状况,危机冲击带来了新的、以改革为导向的政府,政治家们可以为未来吸取一些教训。负责任的宏观经济政策有助于降低发生货币危机的风险。它包括平衡和透明的财政账户,适当的货币-财政政策组合,低通胀,避免名义变量指数化和中间货币/汇率制度。在微观经济层面上,关键因素包括私有化、取消垄断和实行有效的竞争政策、审慎管理金融部门、贸易开放和简单、公平和透明的税收制度。上述所有措施应有助于消除软预算约束、私人和公共部门的过度借贷以及道德风险问题。所有这些措施都需要通过法律改革、有效和公平的司法制度、实施国际会计、报告和披露标准、透明的公司和公共治理规则以及许多其他因素来加强。国际货币基金组织和其他国际组织可以支持改革,这些组织应将其行动和决策过程非政治化,坚持国家评估及其执行的专业标准。
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引用次数: 9
Business Climate in CIS Countries 独联体国家的商业环境
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.1441924
V. Dubrovskiy, Oleg Ustenko
The paper examines the quality of the business climate in the group of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) from the prospective of the level of development of entrepreneurship, and individual countries’ attractiveness to the foreign direct investments (FDI). The analysis suggests that the main obstacles for further improvements of the business climate in this group of countries are high level of corruption, inefficiency in the existing system of tax administration and regulation, discretionary implementation of custom and trade regulations, low level of property rights protection, and macroeconomic instability. Some explanations of the historical and institutional causes of these business impediments are provided. Although the net FDI inflow to CIS countries has been substantially increased since the time they gained independence, it’s still well bellow than in Central & Eastern Europe Countries (CEE). The number of private enterprises per capita vastly varies within the CIS countries, with some of them approaching the OECD level, but some else lagging far behind. FDI stocks also unequally distribute within the CIS group. Fuel exporting countries are better off than fuel importing countries, although the individual country’s business climate within two groups does not differ significantly. As a conclusion, paper suggests a number of concrete public policy recommendations aiming to improve business climate in the CIS region.
本文从创业发展水平和各国对外国直接投资(FDI)的吸引力两方面考察了独联体(CIS)集团的商业环境质量。分析表明,这组国家进一步改善商业环境的主要障碍是腐败程度高、现有税收管理和规章制度效率低下、自由执行海关和贸易规章、产权保护水平低以及宏观经济不稳定。对这些商业障碍的历史和制度原因进行了一些解释。虽然独联体国家的外国直接投资净流入自其获得独立以来已大幅增加,但仍远低于中欧和东欧国家。独联体各国的人均私营企业数目差别很大,其中一些接近经合发组织的水平,但其他一些则远远落后。外国直接投资的存量在独联体集团内部也分布不均。燃料出口国的情况好于燃料进口国,尽管个别国家在两组内的商业环境差别不大。最后,论文提出了一些具体的公共政策建议,旨在改善独联体区域的商业环境。
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引用次数: 1
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