Pub Date : 2024-09-28Epub Date: 2024-09-16DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(24)01885-3
Samuel Kariuki
{"title":"Global burden of antimicrobial resistance and forecasts to 2050.","authors":"Samuel Kariuki","doi":"10.1016/S0140-6736(24)01885-3","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S0140-6736(24)01885-3","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":18014,"journal":{"name":"Lancet","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":98.4,"publicationDate":"2024-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142290378","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-28Epub Date: 2024-09-16DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(24)01867-1
<p><strong>Background: </strong>Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses an important global health challenge in the 21st century. A previous study has quantified the global and regional burden of AMR for 2019, followed with additional publications that provided more detailed estimates for several WHO regions by country. To date, there have been no studies that produce comprehensive estimates of AMR burden across locations that encompass historical trends and future forecasts.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We estimated all-age and age-specific deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to and associated with bacterial AMR for 22 pathogens, 84 pathogen-drug combinations, and 11 infectious syndromes in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. We collected and used multiple cause of death data, hospital discharge data, microbiology data, literature studies, single drug resistance profiles, pharmaceutical sales, antibiotic use surveys, mortality surveillance, linkage data, outpatient and inpatient insurance claims data, and previously published data, covering 520 million individual records or isolates and 19 513 study-location-years. We used statistical modelling to produce estimates of AMR burden for all locations, including those with no data. Our approach leverages the estimation of five broad component quantities: the number of deaths involving sepsis; the proportion of infectious deaths attributable to a given infectious syndrome; the proportion of infectious syndrome deaths attributable to a given pathogen; the percentage of a given pathogen resistant to an antibiotic of interest; and the excess risk of death or duration of an infection associated with this resistance. Using these components, we estimated disease burden attributable to and associated with AMR, which we define based on two counterfactuals; respectively, an alternative scenario in which all drug-resistant infections are replaced by drug-susceptible infections, and an alternative scenario in which all drug-resistant infections were replaced by no infection. Additionally, we produced global and regional forecasts of AMR burden until 2050 for three scenarios: a reference scenario that is a probabilistic forecast of the most likely future; a Gram-negative drug scenario that assumes future drug development that targets Gram-negative pathogens; and a better care scenario that assumes future improvements in health-care quality and access to appropriate antimicrobials. We present final estimates aggregated to the global, super-regional, and regional level.</p><p><strong>Findings: </strong>In 2021, we estimated 4·71 million (95% UI 4·23-5·19) deaths were associated with bacterial AMR, including 1·14 million (1·00-1·28) deaths attributable to bacterial AMR. Trends in AMR mortality over the past 31 years varied substantially by age and location. From 1990 to 2021, deaths from AMR decreased by more than 50% among children younger than 5 years yet increased by over 8
{"title":"Global burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance 1990-2021: a systematic analysis with forecasts to 2050.","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/S0140-6736(24)01867-1","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S0140-6736(24)01867-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses an important global health challenge in the 21st century. A previous study has quantified the global and regional burden of AMR for 2019, followed with additional publications that provided more detailed estimates for several WHO regions by country. To date, there have been no studies that produce comprehensive estimates of AMR burden across locations that encompass historical trends and future forecasts.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We estimated all-age and age-specific deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to and associated with bacterial AMR for 22 pathogens, 84 pathogen-drug combinations, and 11 infectious syndromes in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. We collected and used multiple cause of death data, hospital discharge data, microbiology data, literature studies, single drug resistance profiles, pharmaceutical sales, antibiotic use surveys, mortality surveillance, linkage data, outpatient and inpatient insurance claims data, and previously published data, covering 520 million individual records or isolates and 19 513 study-location-years. We used statistical modelling to produce estimates of AMR burden for all locations, including those with no data. Our approach leverages the estimation of five broad component quantities: the number of deaths involving sepsis; the proportion of infectious deaths attributable to a given infectious syndrome; the proportion of infectious syndrome deaths attributable to a given pathogen; the percentage of a given pathogen resistant to an antibiotic of interest; and the excess risk of death or duration of an infection associated with this resistance. Using these components, we estimated disease burden attributable to and associated with AMR, which we define based on two counterfactuals; respectively, an alternative scenario in which all drug-resistant infections are replaced by drug-susceptible infections, and an alternative scenario in which all drug-resistant infections were replaced by no infection. Additionally, we produced global and regional forecasts of AMR burden until 2050 for three scenarios: a reference scenario that is a probabilistic forecast of the most likely future; a Gram-negative drug scenario that assumes future drug development that targets Gram-negative pathogens; and a better care scenario that assumes future improvements in health-care quality and access to appropriate antimicrobials. We present final estimates aggregated to the global, super-regional, and regional level.</p><p><strong>Findings: </strong>In 2021, we estimated 4·71 million (95% UI 4·23-5·19) deaths were associated with bacterial AMR, including 1·14 million (1·00-1·28) deaths attributable to bacterial AMR. Trends in AMR mortality over the past 31 years varied substantially by age and location. From 1990 to 2021, deaths from AMR decreased by more than 50% among children younger than 5 years yet increased by over 8","PeriodicalId":18014,"journal":{"name":"Lancet","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":98.4,"publicationDate":"2024-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142290379","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-28DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(24)01410-7
Thanh N Nguyen, Mohamad Abdalkader, Urs Fischer, Zhongming Qiu, Simon Nagel, Hui-Sheng Chen, Zhongrong Miao, Pooja Khatri
Stroke related to large vessel occlusion is a leading cause of disability and death worldwide. Advances in endovascular therapy to reopen occluded arteries have been shown to reduce patient disability and mortality. Expanded indications to treat patients with large vessel occlusion in the late window (>6 h from symptom onset), with basilar artery occlusion, and with large ischaemic core at presentation have enabled treatment of more patients with simplified imaging methods. Ongoing knowledge gaps include an understanding of which patients with large ischaemic infarct are more likely to benefit from endovascular therapy, the role of endovascular therapy in patients who present with low National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale scores or medium or distal vessel occlusion, and optimal management of patients with underlying intracranial atherosclerotic disease. As reperfusion can now be facilitated by intravenous thrombolysis, mechanical thrombectomy, or both, the development of cytoprotective or adjunctive drugs to slow infarct growth, enhance reperfusion, or decrease haemorrhagic risk has gained renewed interest with the hope to improve patient outcomes.
{"title":"Endovascular management of acute stroke.","authors":"Thanh N Nguyen, Mohamad Abdalkader, Urs Fischer, Zhongming Qiu, Simon Nagel, Hui-Sheng Chen, Zhongrong Miao, Pooja Khatri","doi":"10.1016/S0140-6736(24)01410-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(24)01410-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Stroke related to large vessel occlusion is a leading cause of disability and death worldwide. Advances in endovascular therapy to reopen occluded arteries have been shown to reduce patient disability and mortality. Expanded indications to treat patients with large vessel occlusion in the late window (>6 h from symptom onset), with basilar artery occlusion, and with large ischaemic core at presentation have enabled treatment of more patients with simplified imaging methods. Ongoing knowledge gaps include an understanding of which patients with large ischaemic infarct are more likely to benefit from endovascular therapy, the role of endovascular therapy in patients who present with low National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale scores or medium or distal vessel occlusion, and optimal management of patients with underlying intracranial atherosclerotic disease. As reperfusion can now be facilitated by intravenous thrombolysis, mechanical thrombectomy, or both, the development of cytoprotective or adjunctive drugs to slow infarct growth, enhance reperfusion, or decrease haemorrhagic risk has gained renewed interest with the hope to improve patient outcomes.</p>","PeriodicalId":18014,"journal":{"name":"Lancet","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":98.4,"publicationDate":"2024-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142349401","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-28DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(24)02082-8
{"title":"Department of Error.","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/S0140-6736(24)02082-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(24)02082-8","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":18014,"journal":{"name":"Lancet","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":98.4,"publicationDate":"2024-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142349399","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-28DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(24)01489-2
Renée Street, Caradee Y Wright
{"title":"The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: representation matters.","authors":"Renée Street, Caradee Y Wright","doi":"10.1016/S0140-6736(24)01489-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(24)01489-2","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":18014,"journal":{"name":"Lancet","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":98.4,"publicationDate":"2024-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142349413","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-28Epub Date: 2024-09-13DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(24)01881-6
Prince Imani-Musimwa, Mija Ververs
{"title":"Mpox and breastmilk: for once, can we act in time?","authors":"Prince Imani-Musimwa, Mija Ververs","doi":"10.1016/S0140-6736(24)01881-6","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S0140-6736(24)01881-6","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":18014,"journal":{"name":"Lancet","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":98.4,"publicationDate":"2024-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142290382","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-28DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(24)01481-8
Sheikh Mohd Saleem, Shah Sumaya Jan
{"title":"Operationalising the One Health approach for rabies elimination.","authors":"Sheikh Mohd Saleem, Shah Sumaya Jan","doi":"10.1016/S0140-6736(24)01481-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(24)01481-8","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":18014,"journal":{"name":"Lancet","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":98.4,"publicationDate":"2024-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142349405","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-28DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(24)02132-9
Paul Adepoju
{"title":"Vaccination under way as mpox cases continue to rise.","authors":"Paul Adepoju","doi":"10.1016/S0140-6736(24)02132-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(24)02132-9","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":18014,"journal":{"name":"Lancet","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":98.4,"publicationDate":"2024-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142349414","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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