State and federal minimum wage hikes are likely to impact the retail industry employing a great number of less well-compensated part-time workers. Despite the relevance of this issue, it is not clear how minimum wage increases affect full-time and part-time retail employees differentially. In this study, using state-level monthly data from the Current Population Survey (CPS), we find that minimum wage hikes lead to rising part-time wages, but not to declining part-time employment. Instead, retailers reduce their full-time employment and hours of full-time workers in order to stay within a labor budget and keep serving their customers.
{"title":"Impacts of Minimum Wage Increases in the US Retail Sector: Full-Time versus Part-Time Employment","authors":"K. Yonezawa, M. Gómez, E. Mclaughlin","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3520915","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3520915","url":null,"abstract":"State and federal minimum wage hikes are likely to impact the retail industry employing a great number of less well-compensated part-time workers. Despite the relevance of this issue, it is not clear how minimum wage increases affect full-time and part-time retail employees differentially. In this study, using state-level monthly data from the Current Population Survey (CPS), we find that minimum wage hikes lead to rising part-time wages, but not to declining part-time employment. Instead, retailers reduce their full-time employment and hours of full-time workers in order to stay within a labor budget and keep serving their customers.","PeriodicalId":18085,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"28 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83402747","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article examines how COVID-19 impacts migrant workers and what can be done for their equitable transition after the pandemic is subdued. The immediate policy response to the pandemic was closing of national borders that resulted in a state of emergency on a global scale. The need for continuous and safe passage of goods, services, and workers was acknowledged by laws and policies that were an ‘exception’ to the rule, and deemed ‘essential’. This approach resulted in five distinct types of impact on the migrant worker in the spheres of employment, health, movement, social protection, and opportunities. This study uses the framework of ‘just’ transition from sustainability discourse to imagine a labor-centered long-term policy for the migrant worker.
{"title":"Labor Migration in the Post-COVID World: Imagining ‘Just Transition’ using Decent Work Agenda","authors":"Francis Kuriakose, Deepa Kylasam Iyer","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3666064","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3666064","url":null,"abstract":"This article examines how COVID-19 impacts migrant workers and what can be done for their equitable transition after the pandemic is subdued. The immediate policy response to the pandemic was closing of national borders that resulted in a state of emergency on a global scale. The need for continuous and safe passage of goods, services, and workers was acknowledged by laws and policies that were an ‘exception’ to the rule, and deemed ‘essential’. This approach resulted in five distinct types of impact on the migrant worker in the spheres of employment, health, movement, social protection, and opportunities. This study uses the framework of ‘just’ transition from sustainability discourse to imagine a labor-centered long-term policy for the migrant worker.","PeriodicalId":18085,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"147 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86024207","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The objective of this paper is to identify determinants of the reductions in the use of labor observed in Argentine agriculture. The paper focuses on the 2002-2018 period, using data from the last two publications of the Censo Nacional Agropecuario (the census undertaken in 2008 is incomplete). The paper summarizes trends of labor use and firm size in Argentina, and presents three possible hypothesis accounting for the observed changes: (a) capital-labor substitution, (b) labor-saving technical change (reduced and no-tillage), and (c) changes in the farm size and the types of capital (machines) used.
本文的目的是确定阿根廷农业中观察到的劳动力使用减少的决定因素。本文重点关注2002年至2018年期间，使用的数据来自国家农业统计局(Censo national Agropecuario)最近两份出版物(2008年进行的人口普查不完整)。本文总结了阿根廷劳动力使用和企业规模的趋势，并提出了三种可能的假设来解释观察到的变化:(a)资本-劳动力替代，(b)节省劳动力的技术变革(减少和免耕)，以及(c)农场规模和使用的资本(机器)类型的变化。
{"title":"The Human Factor in Argentine Agriculture","authors":"M. Gallacher","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3685185","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3685185","url":null,"abstract":"The objective of this paper is to identify determinants of the reductions in the use of labor observed in Argentine agriculture. The paper focuses on the 2002-2018 period, using data from the last two publications of the Censo Nacional Agropecuario (the census undertaken in 2008 is incomplete). The paper summarizes trends of labor use and firm size in Argentina, and presents three possible hypothesis accounting for the observed changes: (a) capital-labor substitution, (b) labor-saving technical change (reduced and no-tillage), and (c) changes in the farm size and the types of capital (machines) used.","PeriodicalId":18085,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":" 29","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91412802","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
I analyze the impact of one of the leading automation technologies of the last decades – industrial robots – on the declining labor force participation in the US. Exploiting exogenous variation in the adoption of robots across local labor markets and over time, I find that, on average, one additional robot drives two workers out of the labor force. The massive increase in robot adoption between the mid-1990s and 2014 explains about 15 percent of the decline in labor force participation in these years. I next investigate the channels through which automation affects nonparticipation and find that robot adoption leads to rising university enrollment rates among the young, early retirement of older workers and a considerable fraction of middle-aged workers enrolling in disability insurance.
{"title":"Robots and Non-participation in the US: Where Have All the Workers Gone?","authors":"Benjamin Lerch","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3650905","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3650905","url":null,"abstract":"I analyze the impact of one of the leading automation technologies of the last decades – industrial robots – on the declining labor force participation in the US. Exploiting exogenous variation in the adoption of robots across local labor markets and over time, I find that, on average, one additional robot drives two workers out of the labor force. The massive increase in robot adoption between the mid-1990s and 2014 explains about 15 percent of the decline in labor force participation in these years. I next investigate the channels through which automation affects nonparticipation and find that robot adoption leads to rising university enrollment rates among the young, early retirement of older workers and a considerable fraction of middle-aged workers enrolling in disability insurance.","PeriodicalId":18085,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"51 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78831459","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Maiken Skovrider Aaskoven, T. Kjær, D. Gyrd-Hansen
This paper studies how a severe parental health shock affects children's school achievements using a rich longitudinal dataset of Danish children. We use coarsened exact matching to control for potential endogeneity between parental health and children's school outcomes and employ cancer specific survival rates to measure the size of the health shock. We find robust negative (albeit small) effects of a parental health shock on children's basic school grades as well as their likelihood of starting and finishing secondary education, especially for poor prognosis cancers. We observe different outcomes across children's gender and age and gender of the ill parent, but no effects of family-related resilience factors such as parental education level. The effects appear to be driven by non-pecuniary costs rather than by pecuniary costs. Moreover, we find that the negative effects on school performance increase in the size of the health shock for both survivors and non-survivors.
{"title":"Effects of parental health shocks on children's school achievements: A register-based population study","authors":"Maiken Skovrider Aaskoven, T. Kjær, D. Gyrd-Hansen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3650881","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3650881","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies how a severe parental health shock affects children's school achievements using a rich longitudinal dataset of Danish children. We use coarsened exact matching to control for potential endogeneity between parental health and children's school outcomes and employ cancer specific survival rates to measure the size of the health shock. We find robust negative (albeit small) effects of a parental health shock on children's basic school grades as well as their likelihood of starting and finishing secondary education, especially for poor prognosis cancers. We observe different outcomes across children's gender and age and gender of the ill parent, but no effects of family-related resilience factors such as parental education level. The effects appear to be driven by non-pecuniary costs rather than by pecuniary costs. Moreover, we find that the negative effects on school performance increase in the size of the health shock for both survivors and non-survivors.","PeriodicalId":18085,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"345 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91458461","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In the United States, market hours worked are approximately flat across the wealth distribution. Accounting for this phenomenon is a standing challenge for standard heterogeneous-agent macro models. In these models, wealthier households consume more, enjoy more leisure, and work less. We propose a theory that generates the cross-sectional wealth-hours relation as in the data. We quantify this theory in the context of a new general-equilibrium heterogeneous-agent incomplete-markets model with three key features: a quality choice in consumption, non-homothetic preferences, and a multi-sector production structure. As external validation, we show that the model produces expenditure patterns that are consistent with the data, as well as realistic "quality Engel curves."
{"title":"Wealth and Hours","authors":"D. Ferraro, V. Valaitis","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3740240","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3740240","url":null,"abstract":"In the United States, market hours worked are approximately flat across the wealth distribution. Accounting for this phenomenon is a standing challenge for standard heterogeneous-agent macro models. In these models, wealthier households consume more, enjoy more leisure, and work less. We propose a theory that generates the cross-sectional wealth-hours relation as in the data. We quantify this theory in the context of a new general-equilibrium heterogeneous-agent incomplete-markets model with three key features: a quality choice in consumption, non-homothetic preferences, and a multi-sector production structure. As external validation, we show that the model produces expenditure patterns that are consistent with the data, as well as realistic \"quality Engel curves.\"","PeriodicalId":18085,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"66 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85694019","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Expanding unemployment insurance (UI) not only reduces the burden for the unemployed but also the moral cost of layoffs to firms and their managers. Using staggered expansions of UI across US states, we show that expanding UI leads to larger layoffs in firms experiencing negative economic shocks. The effects are stronger in weakly governed and financially unconstrained firms, where managers have greater discretion to avoid moral cost. This study presents moral cost as a novel microeconomic channel through which UI affects layoff decisions, which can compromise its effectiveness as a social insurance program and an automatic stabilizer.
{"title":"License to Fire? Unemployment Insurance and the Moral Cost of Layoffs","authors":"D. Keum, Stephan Meier","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3647982","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3647982","url":null,"abstract":"Expanding unemployment insurance (UI) not only reduces the burden for the unemployed but also the moral cost of layoffs to firms and their managers. Using staggered expansions of UI across US states, we show that expanding UI leads to larger layoffs in firms experiencing negative economic shocks. The effects are stronger in weakly governed and financially unconstrained firms, where managers have greater discretion to avoid moral cost. This study presents moral cost as a novel microeconomic channel through which UI affects layoff decisions, which can compromise its effectiveness as a social insurance program and an automatic stabilizer.","PeriodicalId":18085,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"32 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85020015","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-07-01DOI: 10.1016/J.EUROECOREV.2020.103446
H. Egger, C. Fischer
{"title":"Increasing Resistance to Globalization: The Role of Trade in Tasks","authors":"H. Egger, C. Fischer","doi":"10.1016/J.EUROECOREV.2020.103446","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/J.EUROECOREV.2020.103446","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":18085,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"66 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86070298","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We examine the macroeconomic information content of aggregate earnings from the labor market's perspective. We use insights from the labor economics literature to characterize the information contained in aggregate GAAP earnings and its components that is relevant for predicting aggregate job creation and destruction. Our results suggest that not only does aggregate earnings news convey information about future labor market aggregates, but its information content is incremental to other macroeconomic variables at near-term horizons. Further, the source of this information stems primarily from two earnings components: aggregate core earnings and special items. Shocks to core earnings signal persistent changes in economy-wide profitability that predict aggregate job creation up to four quarters ahead, while shocks to special items predict job destruction up to one quarter. Taken together, our results suggest that aggregate earnings contain useful information about future labor market conditions, with the nature of such information varying across earnings components. JEL Classifications: E37; E44; G17; G24; M41.
{"title":"Another Look at the Macroeconomic Information Content of Aggregate Earnings: Evidence from the Labor Market","authors":"Rebecca N. Hann, Congcong Li, M. Ogneva","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2993654","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2993654","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We examine the macroeconomic information content of aggregate earnings from the labor market's perspective. We use insights from the labor economics literature to characterize the information contained in aggregate GAAP earnings and its components that is relevant for predicting aggregate job creation and destruction. Our results suggest that not only does aggregate earnings news convey information about future labor market aggregates, but its information content is incremental to other macroeconomic variables at near-term horizons. Further, the source of this information stems primarily from two earnings components: aggregate core earnings and special items. Shocks to core earnings signal persistent changes in economy-wide profitability that predict aggregate job creation up to four quarters ahead, while shocks to special items predict job destruction up to one quarter. Taken together, our results suggest that aggregate earnings contain useful information about future labor market conditions, with the nature of such information varying across earnings components.\u0000 JEL Classifications: E37; E44; G17; G24; M41.","PeriodicalId":18085,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83178176","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We provide evidence that regions in the U.S. with higher income inequality tend to have a riskier banking sector. However, not all banks are more risky, as reflected in a higher dispersion of bank risk. We show how a model based on risk-shifting incentives where banks channel insured deposits into subprime loans can account for both findings. In equilibrium, a competition to risk-shift emerges, leading to a subprime lending boom in which loans to high-risk borrowers carry negative NPVs. Some banks engage in risk-shifting by lending to high-risk subprime borrowers, while the rest specialize in lending to low-risk prime borrowers.
{"title":"Unequal and Unstable: Income Inequality and Bank Risk","authors":"Y. Mitkov, U. Schüwer","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3636750","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3636750","url":null,"abstract":"We provide evidence that regions in the U.S. with higher income inequality tend to have a riskier banking sector. However, not all banks are more risky, as reflected in a higher dispersion of bank risk. We show how a model based on risk-shifting incentives where banks channel insured deposits into subprime loans can account for both findings. In equilibrium, a competition to risk-shift emerges, leading to a subprime lending boom in which loans to high-risk borrowers carry negative NPVs. Some banks engage in risk-shifting by lending to high-risk subprime borrowers, while the rest specialize in lending to low-risk prime borrowers.","PeriodicalId":18085,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"464 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77040272","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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