This analysis investigates the predictive power of the most important leading indicators for the German economy, which are provided by the ifo Institute and IHS Markit. We conduct an out-of-sample, real-time forecast experiment for growth of gross domestic product and growth of gross value added in both the manufacturing and the service sector. We find that both survey providers produce valuable leading indicators to predict the current quarter of German GDP growth. Regarding forecasts for the next quarter, the ifo indicators are slightly better than the IHS Markit headline index. For the manufacturing sector, series provided by ifo are clearly superior to those of IHS Markit. For the service sector, the ifo indicators produce better nowcasts, whereas the indicators by IHS are more valuable for one-quarter-ahead predictions.
{"title":"Tracking and Predicting the German Economy: Ifo vs. Pmi","authors":"R. Lehmann, Magnus Reif","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3552385","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3552385","url":null,"abstract":"This analysis investigates the predictive power of the most important leading indicators for the German economy, which are provided by the ifo Institute and IHS Markit. We conduct an out-of-sample, real-time forecast experiment for growth of gross domestic product and growth of gross value added in both the manufacturing and the service sector. We find that both survey providers produce valuable leading indicators to predict the current quarter of German GDP growth. Regarding forecasts for the next quarter, the ifo indicators are slightly better than the IHS Markit headline index. For the manufacturing sector, series provided by ifo are clearly superior to those of IHS Markit. For the service sector, the ifo indicators produce better nowcasts, whereas the indicators by IHS are more valuable for one-quarter-ahead predictions.","PeriodicalId":18085,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"154 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79764458","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines the interaction of road taxes with spatially invariant labor taxation in a polycentric network. It derives analytical expressions for the network counterparts of the traditional double-dividend effects (i.e., Pigouvian, tax-interaction, and revenue-recycling effects), and computes them under different policy regimes. The analysis reveals a series of conditions under which a system of cordons around the major nodes of a network might be more efficient than marginal external cost pricing. With a high elasticity of labor supply and limited public transport coverage, it is shown that the Pigouvian tax rule might reduce welfare even when the generated revenue is used to finance labor tax cuts.
{"title":"Second‐Best Road Taxes in Polycentric Networks with Distorted Labor Markets","authors":"I. Tikoudis","doi":"10.1111/sjoe.12322","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/sjoe.12322","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the interaction of road taxes with spatially invariant labor taxation in a polycentric network. It derives analytical expressions for the network counterparts of the traditional double-dividend effects (i.e., Pigouvian, tax-interaction, and revenue-recycling effects), and computes them under different policy regimes. The analysis reveals a series of conditions under which a system of cordons around the major nodes of a network might be more efficient than marginal external cost pricing. With a high elasticity of labor supply and limited public transport coverage, it is shown that the Pigouvian tax rule might reduce welfare even when the generated revenue is used to finance labor tax cuts.","PeriodicalId":18085,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"29 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79211459","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-01DOI: 10.7551/mitpress/11728.003.0012
{"title":"Fiscal Policy and Its Implications","authors":"","doi":"10.7551/mitpress/11728.003.0012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7551/mitpress/11728.003.0012","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":18085,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74267656","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-01DOI: 10.7551/mitpress/11728.003.0005
{"title":"Why and How Do \u0000Countries Grow?","authors":"","doi":"10.7551/mitpress/11728.003.0005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7551/mitpress/11728.003.0005","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":18085,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74969625","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Lawrence J. Christiano, M. Eichenbaum, M. Trabandt
Abstract We argue that wage inertia plays a pivotal role in allowing empirically plausible variants of the standard search and matching model to account for the large countercyclical response of unemployment to shocks.
{"title":"Why is Unemployment so Countercyclical?","authors":"Lawrence J. Christiano, M. Eichenbaum, M. Trabandt","doi":"10.3386/w26723","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w26723","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We argue that wage inertia plays a pivotal role in allowing empirically plausible variants of the standard search and matching model to account for the large countercyclical response of unemployment to shocks.","PeriodicalId":18085,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75864178","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
David E. Altig, E. Ilin, Alexander I. Ruder, Ellyn Terry
Benefits cliffs, which occur when earnings gains are offset by the loss of public benefits, have long been recognized to create financial disincentives for low-income individuals to earn more income. In this paper, the authors develop a new methodology to study benefits cliffs in the context of career advancement. The authors illustrate the change in net financial resources for an individual pursuing the health care services career pathway from certified nursing assistant (CNA) to licensed practical nurse (LPN) to registered nurse (RN). Accounting for increases in taxes and the loss of public benefits, the authors show that a single mother with two children receiving maximum available public benefits can be financially worse off in the short and medium term when advancing from the entry-level CNA position. Over a lifetime, career advancement leads to large financial gains. The authors also calculate a large lifetime net public savings if the mother advances to the RN position. Finally, the authors illustrate two policy interventions: a childcare subsidy phaseout that is gradual rather than sudden, and an application of transitional public benefits with asset mapping of financial resources. The authors show how each of these interventions benefits a low-income parent seeking to advance up the economic ladder.
{"title":"Benefits Cliffs and the Financial Incentives for Career Advancement: A Case Study of the Health Care Services Career Pathway","authors":"David E. Altig, E. Ilin, Alexander I. Ruder, Ellyn Terry","doi":"10.29338/dp2020-01","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.29338/dp2020-01","url":null,"abstract":"Benefits cliffs, which occur when earnings gains are offset by the loss of public benefits, have long been recognized to create financial disincentives for low-income individuals to earn more income. In this paper, the authors develop a new methodology to study benefits cliffs in the context of career advancement. The authors illustrate the change in net financial resources for an individual pursuing the health care services career pathway from certified nursing assistant (CNA) to licensed practical nurse (LPN) to registered nurse (RN). Accounting for increases in taxes and the loss of public benefits, the authors show that a single mother with two children receiving maximum available public benefits can be financially worse off in the short and medium term when advancing from the entry-level CNA position. Over a lifetime, career advancement leads to large financial gains. The authors also calculate a large lifetime net public savings if the mother advances to the RN position. Finally, the authors illustrate two policy interventions: a childcare subsidy phaseout that is gradual rather than sudden, and an application of transitional public benefits with asset mapping of financial resources. The authors show how each of these interventions benefits a low-income parent seeking to advance up the economic ladder.","PeriodicalId":18085,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74424458","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Empirical findings suggest a positive correlation between inequality and social immobility, a phenomenon coined the Gatsby curve. However, complete explanations of the phenomenon have not yet been proposed. This paper answers two questions: What are Gatsby curves? When do they exist? We build a theoretical environment in which parental investment and education improve the economic prospects of children. Gatsbian economies and Gatsby curves are formally defined, and we characterize the conditions under which they will arise. We show that an economy may go from being Gatsbian to non-Gatsbian. Finally, we show that the better network of relations of those with high-paying jobs may also generate a Gatsbian economy.
{"title":"Uncovering Gatsby Curves","authors":"Pierre St-Amant, Jean‐Denis Garon, N. Marceau","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3526604","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3526604","url":null,"abstract":"Empirical findings suggest a positive correlation between inequality and social immobility, a phenomenon coined the Gatsby curve. However, complete explanations of the phenomenon have not yet been proposed. This paper answers two questions: What are Gatsby curves? When do they exist? We build a theoretical environment in which parental investment and education improve the economic prospects of children. Gatsbian economies and Gatsby curves are formally defined, and we characterize the conditions under which they will arise. We show that an economy may go from being Gatsbian to non-Gatsbian. Finally, we show that the better network of relations of those with high-paying jobs may also generate a Gatsbian economy.","PeriodicalId":18085,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81180571","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-01DOI: 10.7551/mitpress/11728.003.0011
{"title":"The Current Account and External Debt","authors":"","doi":"10.7551/mitpress/11728.003.0011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7551/mitpress/11728.003.0011","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":18085,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"122 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73617538","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper aims to shed new light on explanations for the sexual division of labour, within a broader examination of within-household specialisation. We propose a set of indices which we believe are the first direct within-couple measures of specialisation. We use these to present a rich descriptive profile of specialisation. Absolute advantage in market work has only a small role in behaviour for heterosexual couples, and no role at all for same-sex couples. In contrast, sex-based specialisation is much greater. We consider whether the patterns in the data are consistent with a formal Beckerian model of comparative advantage. A woman would need to be 109 times more productive in market work than her male partner before reaching expected parity in domestic work, and this is likely biased downwards due to endogeneity of relative wages related to earlier time use decisions.
{"title":"Rethinking Specialisation and the Sexual Division of Labour in the 21st Century","authors":"P. Siminski, Rhiannon Yetsenga","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3542646","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3542646","url":null,"abstract":"This paper aims to shed new light on explanations for the sexual division of labour, within a broader examination of within-household specialisation. We propose a set of indices which we believe are the first direct within-couple measures of specialisation. We use these to present a rich descriptive profile of specialisation. Absolute advantage in market work has only a small role in behaviour for heterosexual couples, and no role at all for same-sex couples. In contrast, sex-based specialisation is much greater. We consider whether the patterns in the data are consistent with a formal Beckerian model of comparative advantage. A woman would need to be 109 times more productive in market work than her male partner before reaching expected parity in domestic work, and this is likely biased downwards due to endogeneity of relative wages related to earlier time use decisions.","PeriodicalId":18085,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"256 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83499236","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study was conducted to determine the effect of Customer Satisfaction, Trust, Price and Quality Service to Repurchase Interests in Online Shop In this research involved 200 respondents in the city. This research was conducted within two months ie from October to November. This research method used survey method with approach to causation. Data collection through literature and questionnaires. Data were analyzed using SmartPLS software version 3. PLS (Partial Least Square) with structural equation analysis (SEM). The results showed that the variables that have a major influence on the Repurchase Interest is trust. Meanwhile, the variables that have a low impact on the Repurchase Interest is the price.
{"title":"Effect of Customer Satisfaction, Trust, Price And Quality Service on Repurchase Interests in Online Shop","authors":"Osly Usman, Alfathurrijal Anshorulloh","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3511848","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3511848","url":null,"abstract":"This study was conducted to determine the effect of Customer Satisfaction, Trust, Price and Quality Service to Repurchase Interests in Online Shop In this research involved 200 respondents in the city. This research was conducted within two months ie from October to November. This research method used survey method with approach to causation. Data collection through literature and questionnaires. Data were analyzed using SmartPLS software version 3. PLS (Partial Least Square) with structural equation analysis (SEM). The results showed that the variables that have a major influence on the Repurchase Interest is trust. Meanwhile, the variables that have a low impact on the Repurchase Interest is the price.","PeriodicalId":18085,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89962339","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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