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Analysing the Determinants of Credit Risk for General Insurance Firms in the UK 分析英国一般保险公司信用风险的决定因素
Pub Date : 2016-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2808513
G. Caporale, M. Cerrato, Xuan Zhang
This paper estimates a reduced-form model to assess the credit risk of General Insurance (GI) non-life firms in the UK. Compared to earlier studies, it uses a much larger sample including 30 years of data for 515 firms, and also considers a much wider set of possible determinants of credit risk. The empirical results suggest that macroeconomic and firm-specific factors both play important roles. Other key findings are the following: credit risk varies across firms depending on their business lines; there is default clustering in the GI industry; different reinsurance levels also affect the credit risk of insurance firms. The implications of these findings for regulators of GI firms under the coming Solvency II are discussed.
本文估计了一个简化的模型来评估英国一般保险(GI)非寿险公司的信用风险。与早期的研究相比,它使用了更大的样本,包括515家公司30年的数据,并且还考虑了更广泛的信用风险可能决定因素。实证结果表明,宏观经济因素和企业特定因素都起着重要作用。其他主要发现如下:各公司的信用风险因其业务线而异;地理信息产业存在默认集群;不同的再保险等级也会影响保险公司的信用风险。讨论了这些发现对即将到来的偿付能力II下GI公司监管机构的影响。
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引用次数: 6
Disclosure of Corporate Tax Reports, Tax Enforcement, and Price Information 披露公司税务报告、税务执行和价格信息
Pub Date : 2016-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2576741
J. Caballe, A. Dumitrescu
In this paper, we analyze the effects of disclosing corporate tax reports on the performance of financial markets and the use of asset prices by the tax enforcement agency in order to infer the true corporate cash flows. We model the interaction between a firm and the tax auditing agency, and highlight the role played by the tax report as a public signal used by the market dealer and the role of prices as a signal used by the tax authority. We discuss the determinants of both the reporting strategy of the firm and the auditing policy of the tax authority. Our model suggests that, despite disclosure of the tax reports being beneficial for market performance (as the spreads and trading costs are smaller than under no disclosure), the tax agency might have incentives to not disclose the tax report when its objective is to maximize expected net tax collection.
在本文中,我们分析了披露企业税务报告对金融市场表现和税务执法机构使用资产价格的影响,以推断真实的企业现金流量。我们对公司和税务审计机构之间的互动进行了建模,并强调了税务报告作为市场交易商使用的公共信号所起的作用,以及价格作为税务机关使用的信号所起的作用。我们讨论了公司的报告策略和税务机关的审计政策的决定因素。我们的模型表明,尽管披露税务报告有利于市场表现(因为价差和交易成本比不披露时要小),但当税务机构的目标是最大化预期净税收时,它可能有不披露税务报告的动机。
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引用次数: 1
КАТЕГОРИЯТА „БИЗНЕС“ В КОНТЕКСТА НА СЧЕТОВОДНОТО ОТЧИТАНЕ НА БИЗНЕСКОМБИНАЦИИТЕ СПОРЕД МСС/МСФО (The Category 'Business' in the Context of Accounting for Business Combinations Under IAS/IFRS)
Pub Date : 2016-05-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2784114
A. Atanasov
Bulgarian Abstract: Понятието „бизнес“ днес се използва широко както в икономическата литература, така и в масовото общуване като смисъла, който се влага в него не винаги е еднозначен.В контекста на счетоводните стандарти във връзка с представянето на сделките по сливане и придобиване категорията „бизнес“ е дефинирана в приложимия стандарт за бизнескомбинациите – МСФО 3. Считаме, че внасянето на яснота в полето на счетоводното регламентиране на една изключително важна категория като бизнескомбинациите е повече от наложително, тъй като вярваме, че разбирането на икономическия смисъл на бизнескомбинациите, чиято есенция е в разбирането на категорията бизнес, е от решаващо значение за тяхното счетоводно регламентиране и последващо представяне във финансовите отчети. Освен това бизнескомбинациите са носител на огромни транзакционни потоци, което прави информацията за тези сделки и тяхното счетоводно представяне изключително важни за бъдещите инвестиционни решения С оглед на изложените в текста аргументи е предложено дефиницията за бизнес да претърпи редакция и да придобие следния вид: „бизнес“ представлява съвкупност от активи и дейности (и поети задължения), които предприятието ръководи и осъществява с цел получаване на възвръщаемост за инвеститорите под различна форма и които в обозримо бъдеще не се предвижда да бъдат прекратени.Последната част от предложената дефиниция считаме, че е особено важна, тъй като има отношение към цялостната концепция за счетоводно отчитане на една бизнескомбинация.English Abstract: One of the most important moments, gives the appearance of the whole topic of business combinations is the determination whether as a result of the business combination, the acquirer obtains control of one or more businesses. We believe that the acquisition of the business and its continuation is the basis for a business such as economic transactions. If the acquirer acquires resources and processes that are not considered business at the date of acquisition, then to that date should not be recognized and the goodwill from the transaction as a separate identifiable asset and any difference that emerges to present itself as gain or loss on the transaction. Adopting this basic thesis believe that the same should be considered and a situation in which the acquirer can identify the date of acquisition business, but does not provide for its continuation.
英文摘要:"企业 "一词如今在经济学文献和大众传播中被广泛使用,因为它所蕴含的含义并不总是明确的。在与并购交易列报相关的会计准则中,"企业 "这一类别在企业合并的适用准则--《国际财务报告准则》第 3 号中被定义。我们认为,对企业合并这样一个重要类别的会计监管领域加以明确是势在必行的,因为我们认为,理解企业合并的经济含义(其本质在于理解企业的类别)对于其会计监管和随后在财务报表中的列报至关重要。此外,企业合并是巨额交易流的载体,因此有关这些交易的信息及其会计列报对未来的投资决 策至关重要。鉴于文中提出的论点,建议将企业的定义修订如下:"企业 "是指一个实体为以 各种形式为投资者创造回报而管理和开展的、在可预见的未来无法预见的一系列资产和活动 (以及承诺)。我们认为,收购业务及其延续是经济交易等业务的基础。 如果收购方收购的资源和流程在收购之日不被视为业务,那么到该日不应确认,交易产生 的商誉作为一项单独的可识别资产,出现的任何差额作为交易损益列示。 采用这一基本论点,我们认为应考虑同样的情况,即收购方可以确定收购业务的日 期,但没有规定其延续。
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引用次数: 0
Customer Concentration and Public Disclosure: Evidence from Management Earnings and Sales Forecasts 客户集中度与公开披露:来自管理层盈余和销售预测的证据
Pub Date : 2016-05-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2781627
Steven Crawford, Ying Huang, Ningzhong Li, Ziyun Yang
This study examines the effect of customer-base concentration on corporate public disclosure policy. We argue that large customers have lower costs of accessing the supplier firm’s private information, which reduces their demand for the supplier’s public information, suggesting a negative association between customer concentration and the amount of public disclosure. Consistent with this argument, we find that the likelihood and frequency of management earnings forecasts decrease with customer concentration among firms with major corporate customers. This effect is stronger when the supplier and customers are engaged in more relationship-specific investments and when it is less costly for customers to find another supplier. We find a similar negative association between the concentration of prospective customers and the likelihood and frequency of management earnings forecasts.
本研究探讨顾客基础集中度对企业公开披露政策的影响。我们认为,大客户获取供应商公司私人信息的成本较低,这降低了他们对供应商公开信息的需求,表明客户集中度与公开披露量之间存在负相关关系。与这一论点一致,我们发现,在拥有主要企业客户的公司中,管理层盈余预测的可能性和频率随着客户集中度的降低而降低。当供应商和客户进行更多关系特定的投资时,当客户寻找另一个供应商的成本较低时,这种效应会更强。我们发现,潜在客户的集中度与管理层盈余预测的可能性和频率之间也存在类似的负相关关系。
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引用次数: 54
Optimal Financing and Disclosure 最优融资与信息披露
Pub Date : 2016-03-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2735981
M. Szydlowski
I study an entrepreneur who finances a project with uncertain cash flows and who jointly chooses the disclosure and financing policies. In the Bayesian persuasion framework, I show that it is optimal to truthfully reveal whether the project’s cash flows are above a threshold. This class of threshold policies is optimal for any prior belief, monotone security, and increasing utility function of the entrepreneur. I characterize how the disclosure threshold depends on the underlying security, the prior, and the cost of investment. The financing choice of the entrepreneur is determined by a new trade-off between the likelihood of persuading investors and relinquishing cash flow rights. Absent further frictions, the optimal security is indeterminate. If there is adverse selection after the entrepreneur has disclosed information, the unique outcome is a pooling equilibrium in which the entrepreneur pledges the entire cash flow. This paper was accepted by Tomasz Piskorski, finance.
我研究了一个企业家,他为一个现金流不确定的项目融资,并共同选择披露和融资政策。在贝叶斯说服框架中,我表明,最优的是如实披露项目的现金流量是否高于阈值。这类阈值策略对于企业家的任何先验信念、单调安全性和增加效用函数都是最优的。我描述了披露阈值如何取决于基础安全性、先验性和投资成本。企业家的融资选择取决于在说服投资者的可能性和放弃现金流权之间的一种新的权衡。如果没有进一步的摩擦,最优安全性是不确定的。如果在企业家披露信息后存在逆向选择,其独特的结果是企业家将整个现金流质押的池均衡。这篇论文被财经的Tomasz Piskorski接受。
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引用次数: 19
Determinants of Voluntary Disclosure: A Study in the Brazilian Banking Sector 自愿披露的决定因素:巴西银行业研究
Pub Date : 2016-03-23 DOI: 10.18028/2238-5320/rgfc.v5n2p23-37
L. Forte, João Batista Santos Neto, F. Nobre, Liana Holanda Nepomuceno Nobre, D. Queiroz
Disclosure theory assumes the wide availability of information to users, increasing the level of corporate transparency and reducing information asymmetry common to the business environment. This research aims to investigate the factors influencing the level of voluntary disclosure by companies in the Brazilian banking sector. Corporate reputation (REP), firm size (TAM), performance (DES), and internationalization (ADR) were the variables used as factors influencing the level of disclosure. The sample was composed of the 100 largest Brazilian banks in relation to total assets in 2012. The methodology technique used multiple linear regression. The evidence revealed that the corporate reputation and the size of the companies had a significant and positive relationship with the level of voluntary disclosure. In this sense, the larger the company and higher the standard of corporate reputation, the higher the level of corporate disclosure. Performance and internationalization were not statistically significant.
披露理论假定信息对用户具有广泛的可得性,从而提高了企业的透明度水平,减少了商业环境中常见的信息不对称。本研究旨在探讨影响巴西银行业公司自愿披露水平的因素。企业声誉(REP)、企业规模(TAM)、绩效(DES)和国际化(ADR)是影响信息披露水平的变量。样本由2012年总资产占比最大的100家巴西银行组成。方法技术采用多元线性回归。证据表明,企业声誉和企业规模与企业自愿信息披露水平之间存在显著的正相关关系。从这个意义上说,企业规模越大,企业声誉标准越高,企业信息披露水平也就越高。性能和国际化无统计学意义。
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引用次数: 11
Corporate Governance and Risk Disclosure: Evidence from Saudi Arabia 公司治理与风险披露:来自沙特阿拉伯的证据
Pub Date : 2016-01-22 DOI: 10.22495/cocv13i2p14
Abdullah Al-Maghzom, K. Hussainey, Doaa A Aly
Purpose - This study aims to empirically explore corporate governance and the demographic traits of top management teams as the determinants of voluntary risk disclosure practices in listed banks. This study also aims to contribute to the existing risk disclosure literature by investigating the effect of a combination of determinants on voluntary risk disclosure practices in an emerging market. Furthermore, this study seeks to contribute to risk disclosure theories by employing the upper echelons theory to examine the determinants and their effects on voluntary risk disclosure practices. Design/Methodology/Approach - This investigation uses manual content analysis to measure the levels of risk disclosure in all Saudi listed banks from 2009 to 2013. It also uses ordinary least squares regressions analysis to examine the joint effect of corporate governance and demographic traits on risk disclosure. Results - The empirical findings show that external ownership, audit committee meetings, gender, size, profitability and board size are primary determinants of voluntary risk disclosure practices in Saudi listed banks. The remainder of the independent variables of both corporate governance mechanisms and demographic traits are insignificantly correlated with voluntary risk disclosure practices in Saudi listed banks. This study supports upper echelons theory and further encompasses demographic research into the risk disclosure field. Potential Implications - The empirical findings offer several important implications by reporting to banks’ stockholder, regulatory bodies and any other interested group on the importance of corporate governance and demographic determinants, which can be used to augment risk reporting in the banking industry. This study also backs upper echelons theory and encourages further demographic research into the risk disclosure field. Originality - To the best of the researcher’s knowledge, no prior research has been conducted on the determinants of risk disclosure in Saudi Arabian listed banks. Therefore, this is the first study to investigate the determinants of risk disclosure in the context of Saudi Arabia.
目的:本研究旨在实证探讨公司治理和高层管理团队的人口特征作为上市银行自愿风险披露实践的决定因素。本研究还旨在通过调查决定因素组合对新兴市场自愿风险披露实践的影响,为现有的风险披露文献做出贡献。此外,本研究试图通过运用上层理论来检验决定因素及其对自愿风险披露实践的影响,从而为风险披露理论做出贡献。设计/方法/方法-本调查使用手动内容分析来衡量2009年至2013年所有沙特上市银行的风险披露水平。本文还利用普通最小二乘回归分析,考察了公司治理和人口特征对风险披露的共同影响。结果——实证研究结果表明,外部所有权、审计委员会会议、性别、规模、盈利能力和董事会规模是沙特上市银行自愿风险披露实践的主要决定因素。公司治理机制和人口统计学特征的其余自变量与沙特上市银行自愿风险披露行为的相关性不显著。本研究支持上层梯队理论,并进一步将人口统计学研究纳入风险披露领域。潜在影响-通过向银行股东、监管机构和任何其他利益集团报告公司治理和人口决定因素的重要性,实证研究结果提供了几个重要的影响,这些影响可用于增加银行业的风险报告。这项研究也支持上层梯队理论,并鼓励在风险披露领域进行进一步的人口统计学研究。原创性——据研究者所知,此前没有研究对沙特阿拉伯上市银行风险披露的决定因素进行过研究。因此,这是研究沙特阿拉伯背景下风险披露的决定因素的第一项研究。
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引用次数: 1
Pursuing a High Risk Business Model: The Case of Lehman Brothers 追求高风险的商业模式:雷曼兄弟的案例
Pub Date : 2016-01-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2717666
Karikari Amoa-Gyarteng
Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy was the largest in the history of the United States. It contributed in part to the 2007-2008 Global Financial Crisis. Lehman Brothers, as enumerated in this paper, was principally responsible for its own collapse with the hugely risky investments it undertook which led to the accumulation of toxic assets. With its huge size and ability to manipulate financial reports, it engaged in the use of Repo transactions to hide its rather high leverage from the prying eyes of regulators, investors and lenders. This paper analyzes the events leading up to the colossal failure of the bank and suggests that tight regulations and accounting standards with no gray areas are the measures needed to contain the pursuit of high risk business models by greedy CEO’s.
雷曼兄弟的破产是美国历史上最大的破产案。这在一定程度上导致了2007-2008年的全球金融危机。正如本文所列举的,雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)对自己的倒闭负有主要责任,因为它进行了高风险的投资,导致了有毒资产的积累。凭借其庞大的规模和操纵财务报告的能力,它利用回购交易来掩盖其相当高的杠杆率,以躲避监管机构、投资者和贷款机构的窥探。本文分析了导致该银行巨大失败的事件,并提出严格的监管和没有灰色地带的会计准则是遏制贪婪的首席执行官追求高风险商业模式所需要的措施。
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引用次数: 0
Management Risk and the Cost of Borrowing 管理风险与借贷成本
Pub Date : 2015-11-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2641923
Yihui Pan, T. Wang, M. Weisbach
Risk generated by uncertainty about future management policies appears to affect firms' cost of borrowing. In a sample of S&P 1500 firms between 1987 and 2012, CDS spreads, loan spreads and bond yield spreads all decline over the first three years of CEO tenure, holding other macroeconomic, firm, and security level factors constant. This decline occurs regardless of the reason for the prior CEO's departure. Similar but smaller declines occur following turnovers of CFOs. The spreads are more sensitive to CEO turnover and tenure when the prior uncertainty about the incoming CEO's ability is likely to be higher: when he is not an heir apparent, is an outsider, is younger, or when he does not have a prior relationship with the lender. The spread-tenure sensitivity is also higher when the firm has a higher default risk and when the debt claim is riskier. These patterns are consistent with the view that the decline in spreads in a manager's first three years of tenure reflects the resolution of uncertainty about management. Firms adjust their propensities to issue external debt, precautionary cash holding, and reliance on internal funds in response to these short-term increases in borrowing costs early in their CEOs' tenure.
未来管理政策的不确定性所产生的风险似乎会影响企业的借贷成本。在1987年至2012年的标准普尔1500公司样本中,CDS息差、贷款息差和债券收益率息差在首席执行官任期的前三年都有所下降,而其他宏观经济、公司和安全水平因素保持不变。不管前任CEO离职的原因是什么,这种下降都会发生。在首席财务官更替后,也会出现类似但较小的下降。当对新任CEO能力的先前不确定性可能更高时,利差对CEO更替和任期更敏感:当他不是接班人,是局外人,更年轻,或者他之前与银行没有关系时。当公司违约风险较高和债权风险较高时,价差-期限敏感性也较高。这些模式与以下观点是一致的,即经理任期前三年利差的下降反映了管理层不确定性的解决。公司调整其发行外债、预防性现金持有和对内部资金依赖的倾向,以应对首席执行官任期早期借款成本的短期上升。
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引用次数: 8
Risk Governance and Performance of the Italian Banks: An Empirical Analysis 意大利银行风险治理与绩效:实证分析
Pub Date : 2015-10-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2684516
Elisa Cavezzali, Gloria Gardenal
Italian Abstract: Il paper indaga la relazione tra l’adozione di buone pratiche di gestione del rischio e la performance e la rischiosita delle banche italiane. In particolare, l’obiettivo della ricerca e capire se una risk governance strutturata possa aiutare le banche ad aumentare la propria performance e la stabilita dei loro risultati. L’analisi si focalizza sui 21 gruppi bancari italiani quotati e copre un orizzonte d’indagine compreso tra il 2005 e il 2014, differenziandosi dagli studi precedenti che considerano principalmente il mercato americano ed europeo e si basano su dati meno aggiornati.I risultati evidenziano che le scelte di risk management e risk governance delle banche italiane possono influenzare le loro performance e il rischio associato. Le evidenze empiriche suggeriscono che la scelta di dotarsi di un Cro non e indice di successo in termini di redditivita o di contenimento dei rischi. E, invece, l’attivita del Comitato Rischi che si dimostra efficace nel permettere una maggiore solidita della banca stessa, che si manifesta in una riduzione della variabilita dei risultati, sia in termini di redditivita che di rischio.English Abstract: The paper investigates the relation between the adoption of good practices in risk management and the level of performance and riskiness of banks. In particular, we aim at understanding if the application of the Enterprise Risk Management approach to banks helps increasing their stability. We test the hypothesis that those banks using an integrated risk management approach have, ceteris paribus, a lower level of risk and a higher performance. Our analysis focuses on 21 Italian listed banking groups, in the time period 2005-2014. Our preliminary results show that the risk management function influences the risk and performance of the bank; however, it is not possible from our data to define an optimal model of risk governance.
意大利摘要:该文件探讨了采用良好的风险管理做法与意大利银行的表现和风险之间的关系。特别是,研究的目的是确定结构化风险治理是否有助于银行提高业绩和业绩稳定性。该分析集中在21家上市的意大利银行集团,涵盖了2005年至2014年期间的调查范围,不同于之前的研究,这些研究主要关注美国和欧洲市场,并基于较不成熟的数据。调查结果显示,意大利银行的风险管理和风险治理选择可能会影响它们的表现和相关风险。经验证据表明,从盈利能力或风险控制的角度来看,选择a是成功的指标。另一方面,风险委员会的工作证明是有效的,它使银行本身更加强大,这反映在利润和风险方面业绩的变化减少。英语摘要:论文调查了在风险管理中采用良好做法与银行绩效和风险水平之间的关系。特别是,我们的目标是了解企业风险管理的应用是否会增加它们的稳定性。我们测试这些银行使用综合风险管理方法的hypothesis,在其他条件相同的情况下,风险较低,表现较高。我们在2005-2014年期间对21个意大利银行集团进行了分析。我们的初步调查结果显示,风险管理职能影响银行的风险和表现;从我们的数据到定义风险治理的最佳模型是不可能的。
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引用次数: 9
期刊
Corporate Governance: Disclosure
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