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Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena最新文献

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Non-Markovian modelling highlights the importance of age structure on Covid-19 epidemiological dynamics 非马尔科维奇模型强调年龄结构对新冠肺炎流行病学动态的重要性
IF 2.2 4区 数学 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-03-02 DOI: 10.1051/mmnp/2022008
B. Reyné, Q. Richard, C. Selinger, Mircea T. Sofonea, R. Djidjou-Demasse, S. Alizon
The Covid-19 outbreak was followed by a huge amount of modelling studies in order to rapidly gain insights to implement the best public health policies. Most of these compartmental models involved ordinary differential equations (ODEs) systems. Such a formalism implicitly assumes that the time spent in each compartment does not depend on the time already spent in it, which is unrealistic. To overcome this “memoryless” issue, a widely used solution is to chain the number of compartments of a unique reality (e.g. have infected individual move between several compartments). This allows for greater heterogeneity, but also tends to make the whole model more difficult to apprehend and parameterize. We develop a non-Markovian alternative formalism based on partial differential equations (PDEs) instead of ODEs, which, by construction, provides a memory structure for each compartment. We apply our model to the French 2021 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic and we determine the major components that contributed to the Covid-19 hospital admissions. A global sensitivity analysis highlights a huge uncertainty attributable to the age-structured contact matrix. Our study shows the flexibility and robustness of PDE formalism to capture national COVID-19 dynamics and opens perspectives to study medium or long-term scenarios involving immune waning or virus evolution.
新冠肺炎爆发后,进行了大量的建模研究,以迅速获得见解,实施最佳公共卫生政策。这些分区模型大多涉及常微分方程(ODEs)系统。这种形式主义隐含地假设在每个隔间中花费的时间并不取决于已经在其中花费的时间,这是不现实的。为了克服这个“无记忆”问题,一个广泛使用的解决方案是将一个独特现实的隔间的数量连锁起来(例如,感染者在几个隔间之间移动)。这允许更大的异质性,但也往往使整个模型更难理解和参数化。我们开发了一种基于偏微分方程(PDE)而非常微分方程的非马尔可夫替代形式,通过构造,它为每个隔间提供了一个记忆结构。我们将我们的模型应用于法国2021年严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2型疫情,并确定导致新冠肺炎住院的主要成分。全球敏感性分析强调了年龄结构接触矩阵带来的巨大不确定性。我们的研究显示了PDE形式主义在捕捉国家新冠肺炎动态方面的灵活性和稳健性,并为研究涉及免疫减弱或病毒进化的中长期情景开辟了前景。
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引用次数: 9
Higher-order semi-rational solutions for the coupled complex modified Korteweg-de Vries equation 耦合复修正Korteweg-de Vries方程的高阶半有理解
IF 2.2 4区 数学 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-02-02 DOI: 10.1051/mmnp/2022006
Yu Lou, Yi Zhang, Rusuo Ye
We explore the Darboux-dressing transformation of the coupled complex modified Korteweg-de Vries equation. Next, with the aid of an asymptotic expansion theory, we derive the concrete forms of three types of semi-rational solutions. In particular, the seed solution is related to the normalized distance and retarded time. Interestingly, we construct a kind of novel rogue wave called as curve rogue wave. More importantly, the kinetics of semi-rational solutions are discussed in detail. We hope that these results would shed more light on comprehending of the solutions occurring in multi-component coupled systems.
我们探讨了耦合复变修正Korteweg-de-Vries方程的Darboux穿衣变换。接下来,借助于渐近展开理论,我们导出了三类半有理解的具体形式。特别地,种子解与归一化距离和延迟时间有关。有趣的是,我们构造了一种新的流氓波,称为曲线流氓波。更重要的是,半有理解的动力学被详细讨论。我们希望这些结果能为理解多组分耦合系统中的解提供更多的线索。
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引用次数: 0
Mathematical Modeling of Inflammatory Processes of Atherosclerosis 动脉粥样硬化炎症过程的数学模型
IF 2.2 4区 数学 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-01-31 DOI: 10.1051/mmnp/2022004
G. Abi Younes, N. El Khatib
In this paper we study the early stages of atherosclerosis via a mathematical model of partial differential equations of reaction-diffusion type. The model includes several key species and identifies endothelial hyperpermeability, believed to be a precursor on the onset of atherosclerosis. We reduce the system to a monotone system and provide a biological interpretation for the stability analysis according to endothelial functionality. We investigate as well the existence of solutions of traveling waves type along with numerical simulations. The obtained results are in good agreement with current biological knowledge. Likewise, they confirm and generalize results of mathematical models previously performed in literature. Then, we study the non monotone reduced model and prove the existence of perturbed solutions and perturbed waves, particularly in the bistable case. Finally, we consider the complete model proposed initially, perform numerical simulations and provide more specific results. We study the consistency between the reduced and complete models for a certain range of parameters. We elaborate bifurcation diagrams showing the evolution of inflammation upon endothelial permeability and LDL accumulation. We show that the regulation of atherosclerosis progression is mediated by anti-inflammatory responses that, up to certain extent, lead to plaque regression.
本文通过反应扩散型偏微分方程的数学模型研究动脉粥样硬化的早期阶段。该模型包括几个关键物种,并确定内皮细胞的高渗透性,被认为是动脉粥样硬化发病的前兆。我们将该系统简化为单调系统,并根据内皮功能为稳定性分析提供生物学解释。我们还研究了行波型解的存在性,并进行了数值模拟。所得结果与目前的生物学知识很好地吻合。同样地,他们证实并推广了先前文献中执行的数学模型的结果。然后,我们研究了非单调简化模型,并证明了摄动解和摄动波的存在性,特别是在双稳情况下。最后,我们考虑了最初提出的完整模型,进行了数值模拟,并给出了更具体的结果。我们研究了在一定参数范围内的简化模型和完备模型之间的一致性。我们精心制作了显示炎症在内皮通透性和LDL积累上的演变的分岔图。我们发现动脉粥样硬化进展的调节是由抗炎反应介导的,在一定程度上导致斑块消退。
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引用次数: 9
A fractional diffusion model of CD8+T cells response to parasitic infection in the brain CD8+T细胞对脑内寄生虫感染反应的分数扩散模型
IF 2.2 4区 数学 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-01-24 DOI: 10.1051/mmnp/2022003
A. Farhadi, E. Hanert
Toxoplasma gondii (T. gondii) is a parasitic pathogen that causes serious brain diseases in fetuses and patients with immunodeficiency, particularly AIDS patients. In the field of immunology, a large number of studies have shown that effector CD8 + T cells respond to T. gondii infection in the brain tissue through controlling the proliferation of intracellular parasites and killing infected brain cells. These protective mechanisms do not occur without T cell movement and searching for infected cells, as a fundamental  feature of the immune system. Following infection with a pathogen in a tissue, in their search for infected cells, CD8 + T cells can perform different stochastic searches, including Levy and Brownian random walks. Statistical analysis of CD8 + T cells in response to infected brain cells could be described by a Levy random walk., In this work, by considering a Levy distribution for the displacements, we propose a space fractional-order diffusion equation for the T cell density in the infected brain tissue. Furthermore, we derive a mathematical model representing CD8 + T cell response to infected brain cells. By solving the model equations numerically, we perform a comparison between Levy and Brownian search strategies.
弓形虫(T.gondii)是一种寄生病原体,会导致胎儿和免疫缺陷患者,特别是艾滋病患者患上严重的脑部疾病。在免疫学领域,大量研究表明,效应CD8+T细胞通过控制细胞内寄生虫的增殖和杀死受感染的脑细胞,对脑组织中的弓形虫感染做出反应。如果没有T细胞的运动和寻找受感染的细胞,这些保护机制就不会发生,这是免疫系统的一个基本特征。在组织中感染病原体后,在寻找感染细胞时,CD8+T细胞可以进行不同的随机搜索,包括Levy和Brownian随机行走。CD8+T细胞对感染的脑细胞的反应的统计分析可以通过Levy随机游走来描述。,在这项工作中,通过考虑位移的Levy分布,我们提出了感染脑组织中T细胞密度的空间分数阶扩散方程。此外,我们推导了一个代表CD8+T细胞对受感染脑细胞反应的数学模型。通过数值求解模型方程,我们对Levy和Brownian搜索策略进行了比较。
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引用次数: 0
Dynamics of a stochastic population model with Allee effect and jumps 具有Allee效应和跳跃的随机种群模型动力学
IF 2.2 4区 数学 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-01-13 DOI: 10.1051/mmnp/2022002
Rong Liu, Guirong Liu
This paper is concerned with a stochastic population model with Allee effect and jumps.First, we show the global existence of almost surely positive solution to the model. Next, exponential extinction andpersistence in mean are discussed. Then, we investigated the global attractivity and stability in distribution. At last,some numerical results are given. The results show that if attack rate $a$ is in the intermediate range or very large,the population will go extinct. Under the premise that attack rate $a$ is less than growth rate $r$, if the noise intensityor jump is relatively large, the population will become extinct; on the contrary, the population will be persistent in mean.The results in this paper generalize and improve the previous related results.
本文研究了一个具有Allee效应和跳跃的随机种群模型。首先,我们展示了该模型几乎可以肯定的正解的全局存在性。接下来,讨论了指数消光和平均值的持久性。然后,我们研究了分布的全局吸引性和稳定性。最后给出了一些数值结果。结果表明,如果攻击率$a$处于中等范围或非常大,种群将灭绝。在攻击率$a$小于增长率$r$的前提下,如果噪声强度或跳跃相对较大,种群将灭绝;相反,人口的平均数将是持久的。本文的结果对以前的相关结果进行了推广和改进。
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引用次数: 0
Quantifying the effects of non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 epidemic in the Republic of Korea: Mathematical model-based approach considering age groups and the Delta variant 量化大韩民国非药物和药物干预措施对COVID-19流行病的影响:考虑年龄组和Delta变体的基于数学模型的方法
IF 2.2 4区 数学 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2021-11-01 DOI: 10.1101/2021.11.01.21265729
Y. Ko, V. M. Mendoza, Y. Seo, J. Lee, Y. Kim, D. Kwon, E. Jung
Background: Early vaccination efforts and non-pharmaceutical interventions were insufficient to prevent a surge of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases triggered by the Delta variant. This study aims to understand how vaccination and variants contribute to the spread of COVID-19 so that appropriate measures are implemented. Methods: A compartment model that includes age, vaccination, and infection with the Delta or non-Delta variants was developed. We estimated the transmission rates using maximum likelihood estimation and phase-dependent reduction effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) according to government policies from 26 February to 8 October 2021. We extended our model simulation until 31 December considering the initiation of eased NPIs. Furthermore, we also performed simulations to examine the effect of NPIs, arrival timing of Delta variant, and speed of vaccine administration. Results: The estimated transmission rate matrices show distinct pattern, with the transmission rates of younger age groups (0~39 years) much larger than non-Delta. Social distancing (SD) level 2 and SD4 in Korea were associated with transmission reduction factors of 0.64 to 0.69 and 0.70 to 0.78, respectively. The easing of NPIs to a level comparable to SD2 should be initiated not earlier than 16 October to keep the number of severe cases below the capacity of Korean healthcare system. Simulation results also showed that a surge prompted by the spread of the Delta variant can be prevented if the number of people vaccinated daily was larger. Conclusions: Simulations showed that the timing of easing and intensity of NPIs, vaccination speed, and screening measures are key factors in preventing another epidemic wave.
背景:早期疫苗接种工作和非药物干预措施不足以预防由Delta变异引发的2019冠状病毒病(COVID-19)病例激增。本研究旨在了解疫苗接种和变异如何促进COVID-19的传播,以便实施适当的措施。方法:建立了一个室室模型,包括年龄、疫苗接种和感染Delta或非Delta变异。我们根据2021年2月26日至10月8日的政府政策,使用最大似然估计和非药物干预措施的阶段性减少效应来估计传播率。考虑到缓和的npi的开始,我们将模型模拟延长至12月31日。此外,我们还进行了模拟,以检验npi的影响、Delta变体的到达时间和疫苗施用速度。结果:低年龄组(0~39岁)的传播率明显高于非三角洲年龄组。韩国的社会距离(SD)等级2和SD4的传播减少系数分别为0.64 ~ 0.69和0.70 ~ 0.78。应不早于10月16日开始将国家预防措施放宽到与SD2相当的水平,以使严重病例数量低于韩国卫生保健系统的能力。模拟结果还显示,如果每天接种疫苗的人数更多,则可以防止由Delta变体传播引起的激增。结论:模拟结果表明,npi缓解的时机和强度、疫苗接种速度和筛查措施是预防另一波疫情的关键因素。
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引用次数: 5
Exact insurance premiums for cyber risk of small and medium-sized enterprises 准确的中小企业网络风险保费
IF 2.2 4区 数学 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2021-10-17 DOI: 10.1051/mmnp/2022041
Stefano Chiaradonna, N. Lanchier
As cyber attacks have become more frequent, cyber insurance premiums have increased, resulting in the need for better modeling of cyber risk. Jevtic and Lanchier[20] proposed a dynamic structural model of aggregate loss distribution for cyber risk of small-and-medium-sized enterprises under the assumption of a tree-based local-area-network topology that consists of the combination of a Poisson process, homogeneous random trees, bond percolation processes, and cost topology. Their model assumes that the contagion spreads through the edges of the network with the same fixed probability in both directions, thus overlooking a dynamic cyber security environment implemented in most networks, and their results give an exact expression for the mean of the aggregate loss but only a rough upper bound for the variance. In this paper, we consider a bidirectional version of their percolation model in which the contagion spreads through the edges of the network with a certain probability moving toward the lower level assets of the network but with another probability moving toward the higher level assets of the network. Also, our different mathematical approach leads to exact expressions for both the mean and the variance of the aggregate loss, and therefore an exact expression for the insurance premiums.
随着网络攻击变得越来越频繁,网络保险费也在增加,因此需要更好地建模网络风险。Jevtic和Lanchier[20]在基于泊松过程、均匀随机树、键渗透过程和成本拓扑的树型局域网络拓扑假设下,提出了中小企业网络风险总损失分布的动态结构模型。他们的模型假设传染在两个方向上以相同的固定概率通过网络边缘传播,从而忽略了在大多数网络中实现的动态网络安全环境,他们的结果给出了总损失均值的精确表达式,但只有方差的粗略上界。在本文中,我们考虑了他们的渗透模型的一个双向版本,其中传染通过网络边缘传播,以一定的概率向网络的较低级别资产移动,但以另一个概率向网络的较高级别资产移动。此外,我们不同的数学方法导致了总损失的均值和方差的精确表达式,因此保险费的精确表达式。
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引用次数: 2
A mathematical justification for metronomic chemotherapy in oncology 肿瘤节律化疗的数学依据
IF 2.2 4区 数学 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2021-10-14 DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-1113138/v1
L. Fern'andez, C. Pola, Judith Sáinz-Pardo:
We mathematically justify metronomic chemotherapy as the best strategy to apply most cytotoxic drugs in oncology for both curative and palliative approaches, assuming the classical pharmacokinetic model together with the Emax pharmacodynamic and the Norton-Simon hypothesis.From the mathematical point of view, we will consider two mixed-integer nonlinear optimization problems, where the unknowns are the number of the doses and the quantity of each one, adjusting the administration times a posteriori.Mathematics Subject Classification: 93C15, 92C50, 90C30
假设经典药代动力学模型、Emax药效学模型和Norton-Simon假设,我们在数学上证明了节律化疗是肿瘤治疗和姑息治疗中应用大多数细胞毒性药物的最佳策略。从数学的角度来看,我们将考虑两个混合整数非线性优化问题,其中未知数是剂量的数量和每个剂量的数量,后验调整给药次数。数学学科分类:93C15、92C50、90C30
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引用次数: 1
Mathematical analysis of an age structured epidemic model with a quarantine class 具有隔离类的年龄结构流行病模型的数学分析
IF 2.2 4区 数学 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2021-10-07 DOI: 10.1051/mmnp/2021049
B. Ainseba, T. Touaoula, Z. Sari
In this paper, an age structured epidemic Susceptible-Infected-Quarantined-Recovered-Infected (SIQRI) model is proposed, where we will focus on the role of individuals that leave their class of quarantine before being completely recovered and thus will participate again to the transmission of the disease. We investigate the asymptotic behavior of solutions by studying the stability of both trivial and positive equilibria. In order to see the impact of the different model parameters like the relapse rate on the qualitative behavior of our system, we firstly, give the explicit expression of the epidemic reproduction number $R_{0}.$ This number is a combination of the classical epidemic reproduction number for the SIQR model and a new epidemic reproduction number corresponding to the individuals infected by a relapsed person from the R-class. It is shown that, if $R_{0}leq 1$, the disease free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and becomes unstable for $R_{0}>1$. Secondly, while $R_{0}>1$, a suitable Lyapunov functional is constructed to prove that the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable on some subset $Omega_{0}.$
在本文中,提出了一个年龄结构的流行病易感性感染者隔离康复感染者(SIQRI)模型,其中我们将重点关注在完全康复之前离开隔离级别的个人的作用,从而再次参与疾病的传播。我们通过研究平凡平衡点和正平衡点的稳定性来研究解的渐近行为。为了观察复发率等不同模型参数对系统定性行为的影响,我们首先给出了流行病繁殖数$R_{0}.$的显式表达式这个数字是SIQR模型的经典流行病繁殖数字和与被R类复发者感染的个体相对应的新流行病繁殖数字的组合。结果表明,如果$R_{0}leq1$,则无病平衡是全局渐近稳定的,并且对于$R_{0}>1$是不稳定的。其次,当$R_{0}>1$时,构造了一个合适的Lyapunov泛函,证明了在某个子集$Omega_{0}上唯一的地方性平衡是全局渐近稳定的$
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引用次数: 0
Spectral instability of small-amplitude periodic waves for hyperbolic non-Fickian diffusion advection models with logistic source logistic源双曲型非菲克扩散平流模型小振幅周期波的谱不稳定性
IF 2.2 4区 数学 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2021-10-07 DOI: 10.1051/mmnp/2022020
E. Alvarez, Ricardo Murillo, R. Plaza
A hyperbolic model for diffusion, nonlinear transport (or advection) and production of a scalar quantity, is considered. The model is based on a constitutive law of Cattaneo-Maxwell type expressing non-Fickian diffusion by means of a relaxation time relation. The production or source term is assumed to be of logistic type. This paper studies the existence and spectral stability properties of spatially periodic traveling wave solutions to this system. It is shown that a family of subcharacteristic periodic waves emerges from a local Hopf bifurcation around a critical value of the wave speed. These waves have bounded fundamental period and small-amplitude. In addition, it is shown that these waves are spectrally unstable as solutions to the hyperbolic system. For that purpose, it is proved that the Floquet spectrum of the linearized operator around a wave can be approximated by a linear operator whose point spectrum intersects the unstable half plane of complex numbers with positive real part.
考虑了扩散、非线性输运(或平流)和标量产生的双曲模型。该模型基于Cattaneo-Maxwell型本构律,通过松弛时间关系表示非菲克扩散。假定生产项或源项属于物流类型。本文研究了该系统空间周期行波解的存在性和谱稳定性。结果表明,在波速的一个临界值附近,局部Hopf分岔产生了一组亚特征周期波。这些波具有有限的基本周期和小振幅。此外,还证明了这些波作为双曲系统的解在谱上是不稳定的。为此,证明了波周围线性化算子的Floquet谱可以用点谱与实部为正的复数的不稳定半平面相交的线性算子来近似。
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引用次数: 3
期刊
Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena
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