Pub Date : 2021-04-23DOI: 10.1101/2021.04.22.21255952
S. Bracke, L. Grams
Since December 2019, the world is confronted with the outbreak of the respiratory disease COVID-19. At the beginning of 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic evolved into a pandemic, which continues to this day. Within many countries, several control strategies or combinations of them, like restrictions (e.g. lockdown actions), medical care (e.g. development of vaccine or medicaments) and medical prevention (e.g. hygiene concept), were established with the goal to control the pandemic. Depending on the chosen control strategy, the COVID-19 spreading behavior slowed down or approximately stopped for a defined time range. This phenomenon is called saturation effect and can be described by saturation models: E.g. a fundamental approach is Verhulst (1838). The model parameter allows the interpretation of the spreading speed (growth) and the saturation effect in a sound way. This paper shows results of a research study of the COVID-19 spreading behavior and saturation effects depending on different pandemic control strategies in different countries and time phases based on Johns Hopkins University data base (2020). The study contains the analyzing of saturation effects related to short time periods, e.g. possible caused by lockdown strategies, geographical influences and medical prevention activities. The research study is focusing on reference countries like Germany, Japan, Denmark, Iceland, Ireland and Israel.
{"title":"COVID-19 pandemic: Analyzing of different pandemic control strategies using saturation models","authors":"S. Bracke, L. Grams","doi":"10.1101/2021.04.22.21255952","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.04.22.21255952","url":null,"abstract":"Since December 2019, the world is confronted with the outbreak of the respiratory disease COVID-19. At the beginning of 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic evolved into a pandemic, which continues to this day. Within many countries, several control strategies or combinations of them, like restrictions (e.g. lockdown actions), medical care (e.g. development of vaccine or medicaments) and medical prevention (e.g. hygiene concept), were established with the goal to control the pandemic. Depending on the chosen control strategy, the COVID-19 spreading behavior slowed down or approximately stopped for a defined time range. This phenomenon is called saturation effect and can be described by saturation models: E.g. a fundamental approach is Verhulst (1838). The model parameter allows the interpretation of the spreading speed (growth) and the saturation effect in a sound way. This paper shows results of a research study of the COVID-19 spreading behavior and saturation effects depending on different pandemic control strategies in different countries and time phases based on Johns Hopkins University data base (2020). The study contains the analyzing of saturation effects related to short time periods, e.g. possible caused by lockdown strategies, geographical influences and medical prevention activities. The research study is focusing on reference countries like Germany, Japan, Denmark, Iceland, Ireland and Israel.","PeriodicalId":187633,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2021)","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117330351","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-04-23DOI: 10.1101/2021.04.22.21255953
S. Bracke, A. Puls, M. Inoue
In December 2019, the world was confronted with the outbreak of the respiratory disease COVID-19. The COVID-19 epidemic evolved at the beginning of 2020 into a pandemic, which continues to this day. The incredible speed of the spread and the consequences of the infection had a worldwide impact on societies and health systems. Governments enforced many measures to control the COVID-19 pandemic: Restrictions (e.g. lockdown), medical care (e.g. intensive care) and medical prevention (e.g. hygiene concept). This leads to a different spreading behavior of the COVID-19 pandemic, depending on measures. Furthermore, the spreading behavior is influenced by culture and geographical impacts. The spreading behavior of COVID-19 related to short time intervals can be described by Weibull distribution models, common in reliability engineering, in a sound way. The interpretation of the model parameters allows the assessment of the COVID-19 spreading characteristics. This paper shows results of a research study of the COVID-19 spreading behavior depending on different pandemic time phases within Germany and Japan. Both countries are industrial nations, but have many differences with respect to historical development, culture and geographical conditions. Consequently, the chosen government measures have different impacts on the control of the COVID-19 pandemic. The research study contains the analyses of different pandemic time intervals in Germany and Japan: The breakout phase in spring 2020 and subsequently following waves until winter season 2020/2021.
{"title":"COVID-19 pandemic: Analyzing of spreading behavior, the impact of restrictions and prevention measures in Germany and Japan.","authors":"S. Bracke, A. Puls, M. Inoue","doi":"10.1101/2021.04.22.21255953","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.04.22.21255953","url":null,"abstract":"In December 2019, the world was confronted with the outbreak of the respiratory disease COVID-19. The COVID-19 epidemic evolved at the beginning of 2020 into a pandemic, which continues to this day. The incredible speed of the spread and the consequences of the infection had a worldwide impact on societies and health systems. Governments enforced many measures to control the COVID-19 pandemic: Restrictions (e.g. lockdown), medical care (e.g. intensive care) and medical prevention (e.g. hygiene concept). This leads to a different spreading behavior of the COVID-19 pandemic, depending on measures. Furthermore, the spreading behavior is influenced by culture and geographical impacts. The spreading behavior of COVID-19 related to short time intervals can be described by Weibull distribution models, common in reliability engineering, in a sound way. The interpretation of the model parameters allows the assessment of the COVID-19 spreading characteristics. This paper shows results of a research study of the COVID-19 spreading behavior depending on different pandemic time phases within Germany and Japan. Both countries are industrial nations, but have many differences with respect to historical development, culture and geographical conditions. Consequently, the chosen government measures have different impacts on the control of the COVID-19 pandemic. The research study contains the analyses of different pandemic time intervals in Germany and Japan: The breakout phase in spring 2020 and subsequently following waves until winter season 2020/2021.","PeriodicalId":187633,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2021)","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115101178","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_282-cd
Akash Basia, Z. Simeu-Abazi, E. Gascard, P. Zwolinski
{"title":"State of Health Estimation for Lithium-Ion Battery by Incremental Capacity Based ARIMA -- SVR Model","authors":"Akash Basia, Z. Simeu-Abazi, E. Gascard, P. Zwolinski","doi":"10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_282-cd","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_282-cd","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":187633,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2021)","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125348756","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-10-04DOI: 10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_008-cd
J. Braband, H. Schabe
Recently the European Union Agency for Railways (ERA) has received a mandate for 'the development of common safety methods for assessing the safety level and the safety performance of railway operators at national and Union level'. Currently, several methods are under development. It is of interest how a possible candidate would behave and what would be the advantages and disadvantages of a particular method. In this paper, we study a version of the procedure. On the one hand side we analyze it based on the theory of mathematical statistics. As a result, we present a statistically efficient method the rate-ratio test based on a quantity that has smaller variance than the quantity handled by the ERA. Then, we support the theoretical results with the help of a simple simulation study in order to estimate failure probabilities of the first and second kinds. We construct such alternative distributions which the decision procedure cannot distinguish. We will show that the use of procedures that are optimal in the sense of mathematical statistics combined with the use of a characteristics that has small spread, here the number of accidents, is advantageous.
{"title":"Statistical Assessment of Safety Levels of Railway Operators","authors":"J. Braband, H. Schabe","doi":"10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_008-cd","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_008-cd","url":null,"abstract":"Recently the European Union Agency for Railways (ERA) has received a mandate for 'the development of common safety methods for assessing the safety level and the safety performance of railway operators at national and Union level'. Currently, several methods are under development. It is of interest how a possible candidate would behave and what would be the advantages and disadvantages of a particular method. In this paper, we study a version of the procedure. On the one hand side we analyze it based on the theory of mathematical statistics. As a result, we present a statistically efficient method the rate-ratio test based on a quantity that has smaller variance than the quantity handled by the ERA. Then, we support the theoretical results with the help of a simple simulation study in order to estimate failure probabilities of the first and second kinds. We construct such alternative distributions which the decision procedure cannot distinguish. We will show that the use of procedures that are optimal in the sense of mathematical statistics combined with the use of a characteristics that has small spread, here the number of accidents, is advantageous.","PeriodicalId":187633,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2021)","volume":"72 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115355731","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-09-01DOI: 10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_009-cd
H. Schabe, J. Braband
The assessment of in-service safety performance is an important task, not only in railways. For example it is important to identify deviations early, in particular possible deterioration of safety performance, so that corrective actions can be applied early. On the other hand the assessment should be fair and objective and rely on sound and proven statistical methods. A popular means for this task is trend analysis. This paper defines a model for trend analysis and compares different approaches, e. g. classical and Bayes approaches, on real data. The examples show that in particular for small sample sizes, e. g. when railway operators shall be assessed, the Bayesian prior may influence the results significantly.
{"title":"Application of the Cox Regression Model for Analysis of Railway Safety Performance","authors":"H. Schabe, J. Braband","doi":"10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_009-cd","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_009-cd","url":null,"abstract":"The assessment of in-service safety performance is an important task, not only in railways. For example it is important to identify deviations early, in particular possible deterioration of safety performance, so that corrective actions can be applied early. On the other hand the assessment should be fair and objective and rely on sound and proven statistical methods. A popular means for this task is trend analysis. This paper defines a model for trend analysis and compares different approaches, e. g. classical and Bayes approaches, on real data. The examples show that in particular for small sample sizes, e. g. when railway operators shall be assessed, the Bayesian prior may influence the results significantly.","PeriodicalId":187633,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2021)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133168797","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1900-01-01DOI: 10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_261-cd
L. Landi, A. Buffi, M. Marracci, A. Stecconi, Pasqualino Di Leone, Fabio Bernardini, Luciano Didonato
{"title":"Localization Systems for Safety Applications in Industrial Scenarios","authors":"L. Landi, A. Buffi, M. Marracci, A. Stecconi, Pasqualino Di Leone, Fabio Bernardini, Luciano Didonato","doi":"10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_261-cd","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_261-cd","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":187633,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2021)","volume":"55 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115395139","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1900-01-01DOI: 10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_609-cd
M. Radetzky, Tom Stürwold, S. Bracke
{"title":"Image Based Wear Behaviour Analyis of Cutting Tools","authors":"M. Radetzky, Tom Stürwold, S. Bracke","doi":"10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_609-cd","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_609-cd","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":187633,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2021)","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115438366","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1900-01-01DOI: 10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_624-cd
John David Hanna
{"title":"Characterizing Previously Unknown Dependencies in Probabilistic Risk Assessment Models of Nuclear Power Plants","authors":"John David Hanna","doi":"10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_624-cd","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_624-cd","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":187633,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2021)","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115647958","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1900-01-01DOI: 10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_495-cd
Daiwei Li, Huixing Meng
{"title":"A STAMP-Game Model for Accident Analysis of an Oil Spill and Explosion Accident","authors":"Daiwei Li, Huixing Meng","doi":"10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_495-cd","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_495-cd","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":187633,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2021)","volume":"220 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123040799","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1900-01-01DOI: 10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_325-cd
Lucía Bautista Bárcena, Bautista Bárcena, and Inma, I. Castro
{"title":"Analysis of a Condition-Based-Maintenance Policy in Heterogeneous Systems Subject to Periodic Inspections","authors":"Lucía Bautista Bárcena, Bautista Bárcena, and Inma, I. Castro","doi":"10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_325-cd","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_325-cd","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":187633,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2021)","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116943089","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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