Pub Date : 2023-11-11DOI: 10.1007/s11069-023-06281-7
Mohammad Reza Jangi, Azar Zarrin, Abbas Mofidi, Abbasali Dadashi-Roudbari
{"title":"Intensifying heatwave trends in Iran based on observational data using excess heat factor (EHF)","authors":"Mohammad Reza Jangi, Azar Zarrin, Abbas Mofidi, Abbasali Dadashi-Roudbari","doi":"10.1007/s11069-023-06281-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-06281-7","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":18792,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards","volume":"14 16","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135043845","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Predicting the velocity and trajectory of a rockfall after collision considering the effects of slope properties","authors":"Shao-Zhen Duan, Guang-Li Li, Xin Yang, Xin-Rong Wei","doi":"10.1007/s11069-023-06278-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-06278-2","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":18792,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards","volume":"98 36","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135091870","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Prediction of factor of safety of slopes using stochastically modified ANN and classical methods: a rigorous statistical model selection approach","authors":"Abiodun Ismail Lawal, Shahab Hosseini, Minju Kim, Nafiu Olanrewaju Ogunsola, Sangki Kwon","doi":"10.1007/s11069-023-06275-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-06275-5","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":18792,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards","volume":" 73","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135241586","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-08DOI: 10.1007/s11069-023-06279-1
Chenchen Qiu, Lijun Su, Xueyu Geng
Abstract A timely warning system for debris-flow mitigation in mountainous areas is vital to decrease casualties. However, the lack of rainfall monitoring stations and coarse resolution of satellite-based observations pose challenges for developing such a debris-flow warning model in data-scarce areas. To offer an effective method for the generation of precipitation with fine resolution, a machine learning (ML)-based approach is proposed to establish the relationship between precipitation and regional environmental factors (REVs), including normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), digital elevation model (DEM), geolocations (longitude and latitude) and land surface temperature (LST). This approach enables the downscaling of 3B42 TRMM precipitation data, providing fine temporal and spatial resolution precipitation data. We use PERSIANN-Cloud Classification System-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CCS-CDR) data to calibrate the downscaled results using geographical differential analysis (GDA) before applying the calibrated results in a case study in the Gyirong Zangbo Basin. After that, we calculate the rainfall thresholds of effective antecedent rainfall ( P e )—intraday rainfall ( P o ) based on the calibrated precipitation and integrate these thresholds into a susceptibility map to develop a debris-flow warning model. The results show that (1) this ML-based approach can effectively achieve the downscaling of TRMM data; (2) calibrated TRMM data outperforms the original TRMM and downscaled TRMM data, reducing deviations by 55% and 57%; (3) the integrated model, incorporating rainfall thresholds, outperforms a single susceptibility map in providing debris-flow warnings. The developed warning model can offer dynamic warnings for debris flows that may have been missed by the original warning system at a regional scale.
{"title":"A precipitation downscaling framework for regional warning of debris flows in mountainous areas","authors":"Chenchen Qiu, Lijun Su, Xueyu Geng","doi":"10.1007/s11069-023-06279-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-06279-1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract A timely warning system for debris-flow mitigation in mountainous areas is vital to decrease casualties. However, the lack of rainfall monitoring stations and coarse resolution of satellite-based observations pose challenges for developing such a debris-flow warning model in data-scarce areas. To offer an effective method for the generation of precipitation with fine resolution, a machine learning (ML)-based approach is proposed to establish the relationship between precipitation and regional environmental factors (REVs), including normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), digital elevation model (DEM), geolocations (longitude and latitude) and land surface temperature (LST). This approach enables the downscaling of 3B42 TRMM precipitation data, providing fine temporal and spatial resolution precipitation data. We use PERSIANN-Cloud Classification System-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CCS-CDR) data to calibrate the downscaled results using geographical differential analysis (GDA) before applying the calibrated results in a case study in the Gyirong Zangbo Basin. After that, we calculate the rainfall thresholds of effective antecedent rainfall ( P e )—intraday rainfall ( P o ) based on the calibrated precipitation and integrate these thresholds into a susceptibility map to develop a debris-flow warning model. The results show that (1) this ML-based approach can effectively achieve the downscaling of TRMM data; (2) calibrated TRMM data outperforms the original TRMM and downscaled TRMM data, reducing deviations by 55% and 57%; (3) the integrated model, incorporating rainfall thresholds, outperforms a single susceptibility map in providing debris-flow warnings. The developed warning model can offer dynamic warnings for debris flows that may have been missed by the original warning system at a regional scale.","PeriodicalId":18792,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards","volume":" 77","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135341074","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-07DOI: 10.1007/s11069-023-06276-4
Ramil B. Atando, Daisuke Sugawara
{"title":"Differences in the earthquake preparedness of low- and high-income countries: the cases of Shizuoka prefecture, Japan, and the four provinces in Panay, Philippines","authors":"Ramil B. Atando, Daisuke Sugawara","doi":"10.1007/s11069-023-06276-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-06276-4","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":18792,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards","volume":"6 8","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135432312","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Constructing a cross-field scenario system to aware systemic risk: national security as an example","authors":"Qing Deng, Mengjiao Yao, Hui Zhang, Feng Yu, Lida Huang, Yaping Ma","doi":"10.1007/s11069-023-06265-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-06265-7","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":18792,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards","volume":"145 s1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135480073","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-07DOI: 10.1007/s11069-023-06271-9
Mehmet Cetin, Asir Yuksel Kaya, Necmettin Elmastas, Fatih Adiguzel, Ahmet Emrah Siyavus, Nurhan Kocan
{"title":"Assessment of emergency gathering points and temporary shelter areas for disaster resilience in Elazıg, Turkey","authors":"Mehmet Cetin, Asir Yuksel Kaya, Necmettin Elmastas, Fatih Adiguzel, Ahmet Emrah Siyavus, Nurhan Kocan","doi":"10.1007/s11069-023-06271-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-06271-9","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":18792,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards","volume":"50 44","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135432862","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-06DOI: 10.1007/s11069-023-06274-6
Gebray H. Alene, Ivan Depina, Vikas Thakur, Andrew Perkis, Oddbjørn Bruland
Abstract Disaster emergency management is crucial for safeguarding lives and the environment in the face of natural and human-caused calamities, such as quick clay landslides. Disaster emergency management encompasses hazard identification, prevention, response, and recovery, most of which require knowledge and information acquired through training initiatives. Quick clay landslides pose a substantial hazard in regions like Scandinavia, Canada, Alaska, and Russia. With numerous historical incidents, knowledge-based awareness of quick clay landslide hazards is of paramount importance. In recent years, the area of application of virtual reality (VR) has grown tremendously from the entertainment industry to the military, to mental health, to hazard identification training and our daily lives. VR has been widely employed in hazard identification and prevention, safety training, evacuation, search and rescue, and damage identification of hazards. This study outlines the design, development, and implementation of QuickAware, a VR tool designed to create awareness of quick clay hazards. The development process of the tool started with a co-design approach where stakeholder experts were brought to collaborate in setting up VR scenarios and defining the VR environment contents. The contents were then conceptualized and translated into a VR experience. The novelty of the tool is that it immerses users in a realistic experience, allowing them to engage directly with the causes and consequences of quick clay landslide disasters which would be dangerous in real-life. The usability of the VR tool was examined by surveying 16 participants. The preliminary results of the survey indicated that the tool has a promising value in improving awareness creation for quick clay landslide hazards.
{"title":"QuickAware: a virtual reality tool for quick clay landslide hazard awareness","authors":"Gebray H. Alene, Ivan Depina, Vikas Thakur, Andrew Perkis, Oddbjørn Bruland","doi":"10.1007/s11069-023-06274-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-06274-6","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Disaster emergency management is crucial for safeguarding lives and the environment in the face of natural and human-caused calamities, such as quick clay landslides. Disaster emergency management encompasses hazard identification, prevention, response, and recovery, most of which require knowledge and information acquired through training initiatives. Quick clay landslides pose a substantial hazard in regions like Scandinavia, Canada, Alaska, and Russia. With numerous historical incidents, knowledge-based awareness of quick clay landslide hazards is of paramount importance. In recent years, the area of application of virtual reality (VR) has grown tremendously from the entertainment industry to the military, to mental health, to hazard identification training and our daily lives. VR has been widely employed in hazard identification and prevention, safety training, evacuation, search and rescue, and damage identification of hazards. This study outlines the design, development, and implementation of QuickAware, a VR tool designed to create awareness of quick clay hazards. The development process of the tool started with a co-design approach where stakeholder experts were brought to collaborate in setting up VR scenarios and defining the VR environment contents. The contents were then conceptualized and translated into a VR experience. The novelty of the tool is that it immerses users in a realistic experience, allowing them to engage directly with the causes and consequences of quick clay landslide disasters which would be dangerous in real-life. The usability of the VR tool was examined by surveying 16 participants. The preliminary results of the survey indicated that the tool has a promising value in improving awareness creation for quick clay landslide hazards.","PeriodicalId":18792,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards","volume":"20 2","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135678964","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-04DOI: 10.1007/s11069-023-06273-7
Ömer Faruk Gönen, Tezcan Çavuşoğlu, Erkan Kurnaz
{"title":"Medical rescue team's experiences in disaster response to individuals with special needs: The case of Türkiye","authors":"Ömer Faruk Gönen, Tezcan Çavuşoğlu, Erkan Kurnaz","doi":"10.1007/s11069-023-06273-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-06273-7","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":18792,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards","volume":"65 6","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135773446","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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