Unlike demand studies in other industries, models of provider demand in health care often must omit a price, or any other factor that equilibrates the market such as a waiting time. Estimates of the consumer response to quality may consequently be attenuated, if the limited capacity of individual physicians prevents some consumers from obtaining higher quality. We propose a tractable method to address this problem by adding a congestion effect to standard discrete-choice models. We show analytically how this can improve forecasts of the consumer response to quality. We then apply this method to the market for heart surgery, and find that the attenuation bias in estimated quality effects can be important empirically.
{"title":"Measuring Quality Effects in Equilibrium","authors":"Seth Richards-Shubik, Mark S. Roberts, J. Donohue","doi":"10.3386/W28817","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28817","url":null,"abstract":"Unlike demand studies in other industries, models of provider demand in health care often must omit a price, or any other factor that equilibrates the market such as a waiting time. Estimates of the consumer response to quality may consequently be attenuated, if the limited capacity of individual physicians prevents some consumers from obtaining higher quality. We propose a tractable method to address this problem by adding a congestion effect to standard discrete-choice models. We show analytically how this can improve forecasts of the consumer response to quality. We then apply this method to the market for heart surgery, and find that the attenuation bias in estimated quality effects can be important empirically.","PeriodicalId":19091,"journal":{"name":"NBER Working Paper Series","volume":"220 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77426382","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Childhood obesity is one of the most serious public health challenges of the twenty-first century. While small-scale experiments change behaviors among adults in the short run, we know little about the effectiveness of large-scale policies or the longer-run impacts. To nudge primary school children into a long-term habit of exercising, the German state of Saxony distributed sports club membership vouchers among all 33,000 third graders in 2009. In 2018, we carried out a register-based survey to evaluate the policy. Even after a decade, awareness of the voucher program was significantly higher in the treatment group. We also find that youth received and redeemed the vouchers. However, we do not find significant short- or long-term effects on sports club membership, physical activity, overweightness, or motor skills. Apparently, membership vouchers for children are not a strong enough policy tool to overcome barriers to exercise regularly. (JEL H75, I12, I18, I21, I28, J13, Z21)
{"title":"The Long-Run Effects of Sports Club Vouchers for Primary School Children","authors":"Jan Marcus, T. Siedler, Nicolas R. Ziebarth","doi":"10.3386/W28819","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28819","url":null,"abstract":"Childhood obesity is one of the most serious public health challenges of the twenty-first century. While small-scale experiments change behaviors among adults in the short run, we know little about the effectiveness of large-scale policies or the longer-run impacts. To nudge primary school children into a long-term habit of exercising, the German state of Saxony distributed sports club membership vouchers among all 33,000 third graders in 2009. In 2018, we carried out a register-based survey to evaluate the policy. Even after a decade, awareness of the voucher program was significantly higher in the treatment group. We also find that youth received and redeemed the vouchers. However, we do not find significant short- or long-term effects on sports club membership, physical activity, overweightness, or motor skills. Apparently, membership vouchers for children are not a strong enough policy tool to overcome barriers to exercise regularly. (JEL H75, I12, I18, I21, I28, J13, Z21)","PeriodicalId":19091,"journal":{"name":"NBER Working Paper Series","volume":"93 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81703210","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-05-01DOI: 10.1016/J.JDEVECO.2021.102678
Zhibo Tan, S. Wei, Xiaobo Zhang
{"title":"Deadly Discrimination: Implications of \"Missing Girls\" for Workplace Safety","authors":"Zhibo Tan, S. Wei, Xiaobo Zhang","doi":"10.1016/J.JDEVECO.2021.102678","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JDEVECO.2021.102678","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":19091,"journal":{"name":"NBER Working Paper Series","volume":"57 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82121026","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Exploiting informative endogenously selected samples while minimizing sample selection bias with minimum modeling assumptions and analytical burden.
利用信息丰富的内生选择样本，同时以最小的建模假设和分析负担最小化样本选择偏差。
{"title":"Simplifying Bias Correction for Selective Sampling: A Unified Distribution-Free Approach to Handling Endogenously Selected Samples","authors":"Y. Qian, Hui Xie","doi":"10.3386/W28801","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28801","url":null,"abstract":"Exploiting informative endogenously selected samples while minimizing sample selection bias with minimum modeling assumptions and analytical burden.","PeriodicalId":19091,"journal":{"name":"NBER Working Paper Series","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89045164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
African-American motorists may adjust their driving in response to increased scrutiny by law enforcement. We develop a model of police stop and motorist driving behavior and demonstrate that this behavior biases conventional tests of discrimination. We empirically document that minority motorists are the only group less likely to have fatal motor vehicle accidents in daylight when race is more easily observed by police, especially within states with high rates of police shootings of African-Americans. Using data from Massachusetts and Tennessee, we also find that African-Americans are the only group of stopped motorists whose speed relative to the speed limit slows in daylight. Consistent with the model prediction, these shifts in the speed distribution are concentrated at higher percentiles of the distribution. A calibration of our model indicates substantial bias in conventional tests of discrimination that rely on changes in the odds that a stopped motorist is a minority.
{"title":"Endogenous Driving Behavior in Tests of Racial Profiling","authors":"Jesse J. Kalinowski, M. Ross, Stephen L. Ross","doi":"10.3386/W28789","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28789","url":null,"abstract":"African-American motorists may adjust their driving in response to increased scrutiny by law enforcement. We develop a model of police stop and motorist driving behavior and demonstrate that this behavior biases conventional tests of discrimination. We empirically document that minority motorists are the only group less likely to have fatal motor vehicle accidents in daylight when race is more easily observed by police, especially within states with high rates of police shootings of African-Americans. Using data from Massachusetts and Tennessee, we also find that African-Americans are the only group of stopped motorists whose speed relative to the speed limit slows in daylight. Consistent with the model prediction, these shifts in the speed distribution are concentrated at higher percentiles of the distribution. A calibration of our model indicates substantial bias in conventional tests of discrimination that rely on changes in the odds that a stopped motorist is a minority.","PeriodicalId":19091,"journal":{"name":"NBER Working Paper Series","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82225922","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
How should international economic policy address climate change? Does trade cause deforestation and endangered species depletion? How does globalization affect air and water pollution? Do trade and investment create a race to the bottom in environmental policy? How important are environmental impacts of transporting goods? We review theory and empirical work linking international trade and the environment with a focus on recent work and methods. We discuss the literature linking trade to local and global pollutants, the impact of emissions from transportation, the effect of trade on the sustainability of renewable resources, and the interaction between trade and climate policy. To shape our review, we present nine new stylized facts that, together with our review of past work, highlight questions for future research.
{"title":"Globalization and the Environment","authors":"B. Copeland, Joseph S. Shapiro, M. Scott Taylor","doi":"10.3386/W28797","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28797","url":null,"abstract":"How should international economic policy address climate change? Does trade cause deforestation and endangered species depletion? How does globalization affect air and water pollution? Do trade and investment create a race to the bottom in environmental policy? How important are environmental impacts of transporting goods? We review theory and empirical work linking international trade and the environment with a focus on recent work and methods. We discuss the literature linking trade to local and global pollutants, the impact of emissions from transportation, the effect of trade on the sustainability of renewable resources, and the interaction between trade and climate policy. To shape our review, we present nine new stylized facts that, together with our review of past work, highlight questions for future research.","PeriodicalId":19091,"journal":{"name":"NBER Working Paper Series","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84684269","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Soeren J. Henn, Christian Mugaruka, M. Ortiz, Raúl Sánchez de la Sierra, David Wu
We show that armed actors refrain from using their power to arbitrarily steal from an economy if, and only if, the armed actors’ property rights over stealing from that economy are secure. By 2009, armed actors taxed, administered, and protected various villages in Democratic Republic of the Congo. We exploit the timing and targeting of an international military operation that permanently made taxing these villages impossible. Following the operation, these armed actors turned to violently expropriating the same villages. The findings suggest that the security of property rights over stealing, hence the stealing horizon, can sustain, or destroy, economic growth.
{"title":"On the Ends of the State: Stationary Bandits and the Time Horizon in Eastern Congo","authors":"Soeren J. Henn, Christian Mugaruka, M. Ortiz, Raúl Sánchez de la Sierra, David Wu","doi":"10.3386/W28631","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28631","url":null,"abstract":"We show that armed actors refrain from using their power to arbitrarily steal from an economy if, and only if, the armed actors’ property rights over stealing from that economy are secure. By 2009, armed actors taxed, administered, and protected various villages in Democratic Republic of the Congo. We exploit the timing and targeting of an international military operation that permanently made taxing these villages impossible. Following the operation, these armed actors turned to violently expropriating the same villages. The findings suggest that the security of property rights over stealing, hence the stealing horizon, can sustain, or destroy, economic growth.","PeriodicalId":19091,"journal":{"name":"NBER Working Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89259550","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
N. M. Daysal, Todd E. Elder, J. Hellerstein, Scott A. Imberman, C. Orsini
We use rich administrative data from Denmark to assess medical theories that autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a heritable condition transmitted through underlying parental skills. Positing that occupational choices reflect skills, we create two separate occupation-based skill measures and find that these measures are associated with ASD incidence among children, especially through the father’s side. We also assess the empirical relevance of assortative mating based on skill, concluding that intertemporal changes in assortative mating explain little of the increase in ASD diagnoses in recent decades.
Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.
{"title":"Parental Skills, Assortative Mating, and the Incidence of Autism Spectrum Disorder","authors":"N. M. Daysal, Todd E. Elder, J. Hellerstein, Scott A. Imberman, C. Orsini","doi":"10.3386/W28652","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28652","url":null,"abstract":"We use rich administrative data from Denmark to assess medical theories that autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a heritable condition transmitted through underlying parental skills. Positing that occupational choices reflect skills, we create two separate occupation-based skill measures and find that these measures are associated with ASD incidence among children, especially through the father’s side. We also assess the empirical relevance of assortative mating based on skill, concluding that intertemporal changes in assortative mating explain little of the increase in ASD diagnoses in recent decades.<br><br>Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at <a href=\"http://www.nber.org/papers/w28652\" TARGET=\"_blank\">www.nber.org</a>.<br>","PeriodicalId":19091,"journal":{"name":"NBER Working Paper Series","volume":"2005 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86900667","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Nika Haghtalab, Nicole Immorlica, Brendan Lucier, M. Mobius, Divyarthi Mohan
We study a model of social learning and communication using hard anecdotal evidence. There are two Bayesian agents (a sender and a receiver) who wish to communicate. The receiver must take an action whose payoff depends on their personal preferences and an unknown state of the world. The sender has access to a collection of n samples correlated with the state of the world, which we think of as specific anecdotes or pieces of evidence, and can send exactly one of these samples to the receiver in order to influence her choice of action. Importantly, the sender's personal preferences may differ from the receiver's, which affects the seller's strategic choice of which anecdote to send. We show that if the sender's communication scheme is observable to the receiver (that is, the choice of which anecdote to send given the set they receive), then they will choose an unbiased and maximally informative communication scheme, no matter the difference in preferences. Without observability, however, even a small difference in preferences can lead to a significant bias in the choice of anecdote, which the receiver must then account for. This can significantly reduce the informativeness of the signal, leading to substantial utility loss for both sides. One implication is informational homophily: a receiver can rationally prefer to obtain information from a poorly-informed sender with aligned preferences, rather than a knowledgeable expert whose preferences may differ from her own.
Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.
{"title":"Persuading with Anecdotes","authors":"Nika Haghtalab, Nicole Immorlica, Brendan Lucier, M. Mobius, Divyarthi Mohan","doi":"10.3386/W28661","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28661","url":null,"abstract":"We study a model of social learning and communication using hard anecdotal evidence. There are two Bayesian agents (a sender and a receiver) who wish to communicate. The receiver must take an action whose payoff depends on their personal preferences and an unknown state of the world. The sender has access to a collection of n samples correlated with the state of the world, which we think of as specific anecdotes or pieces of evidence, and can send exactly one of these samples to the receiver in order to influence her choice of action. Importantly, the sender's personal preferences may differ from the receiver's, which affects the seller's strategic choice of which anecdote to send. We show that if the sender's communication scheme is observable to the receiver (that is, the choice of which anecdote to send given the set they receive), then they will choose an unbiased and maximally informative communication scheme, no matter the difference in preferences. Without observability, however, even a small difference in preferences can lead to a significant bias in the choice of anecdote, which the receiver must then account for. This can significantly reduce the informativeness of the signal, leading to substantial utility loss for both sides. One implication is informational homophily: a receiver can rationally prefer to obtain information from a poorly-informed sender with aligned preferences, rather than a knowledgeable expert whose preferences may differ from her own.<br><br>Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at <a href=\"http://www.nber.org/papers/w28661\" TARGET=\"_blank\">www.nber.org</a>.<br>","PeriodicalId":19091,"journal":{"name":"NBER Working Paper Series","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86919009","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper revisits capital-skill complementarity and inequality, as in Krusell, Ohanian, Rios-Rull and Violante (KORV, 2000). Using their methodology, we study how well the KORV model accounts for more recent data, including the large changes in the labor's share of income that were not present in KORV. We study both labor share of gross income (as in KORV), and income net of depreciation. We also use nonfarm business sector output as an alternative measure of production to real GDP. We find strong evidence for continued capital-skill complementarity in the most recent data, and we also find that the model continues to closely account for the skill premium. The model captures the average level of labor share, though it overpredicts its level by 2-4 percentage points at the end of the period.
{"title":"Revisiting Capital-Skill Complementarity, Inequality, and Labor Share","authors":"L. Ohanian, Musa Orak, Shihan Shen","doi":"10.3386/W28747","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28747","url":null,"abstract":"This paper revisits capital-skill complementarity and inequality, as in Krusell, Ohanian, Rios-Rull and Violante (KORV, 2000). Using their methodology, we study how well the KORV model accounts for more recent data, including the large changes in the labor's share of income that were not present in KORV. We study both labor share of gross income (as in KORV), and income net of depreciation. We also use nonfarm business sector output as an alternative measure of production to real GDP. We find strong evidence for continued capital-skill complementarity in the most recent data, and we also find that the model continues to closely account for the skill premium. The model captures the average level of labor share, though it overpredicts its level by 2-4 percentage points at the end of the period.","PeriodicalId":19091,"journal":{"name":"NBER Working Paper Series","volume":"2013 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86461830","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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