A long-standing challenge for welfare economics is to develop welfare criteria that can be applied to allocations with different population levels. Such a criterion is essential to resolve the optimal population problem, i.e., the tradeoff between population size and the welfare of each person alive. A welfare criterion that speaks to this issue inherently requires evaluating the welfare of nonexistent people, because some people exist only in some allocations but not in others. To make progress, we consider the population problem in an environment where population is variable, but there is a fixed supply of souls, who may experience multiple incarnations over time. Rather than pondering the value of nonexistence, from the souls' perspective comparing larger or smaller populations merely involves valuing shorter or longer waits until the next incarnation. We argue that such comparisons are possible on the basis of introspection and lead to intuitive welfare criteria with attractive properties. We emphasize that one does not have to believe in reincarnation to accept the resulting criteria; rather, reincarnation serves as a metaphor to facilitate the necessary utility comparisons. Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.
{"title":"A Soul&Apos;S View of the Optimal Population Problem","authors":"David de la Croix, Matthias Doepke","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3804552","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3804552","url":null,"abstract":"A long-standing challenge for welfare economics is to develop welfare criteria that can be applied to allocations with different population levels. Such a criterion is essential to resolve the optimal population problem, i.e., the tradeoff between population size and the welfare of each person alive. A welfare criterion that speaks to this issue inherently requires evaluating the welfare of nonexistent people, because some people exist only in some allocations but not in others. To make progress, we consider the population problem in an environment where population is variable, but there is a fixed supply of souls, who may experience multiple incarnations over time. Rather than pondering the value of nonexistence, from the souls' perspective comparing larger or smaller populations merely involves valuing shorter or longer waits until the next incarnation. We argue that such comparisons are possible on the basis of introspection and lead to intuitive welfare criteria with attractive properties. We emphasize that one does not have to believe in reincarnation to accept the resulting criteria; rather, reincarnation serves as a metaphor to facilitate the necessary utility comparisons. Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.","PeriodicalId":19091,"journal":{"name":"NBER Working Paper Series","volume":"142 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76887888","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Francisco J. Buera, Hugo Hopenhayn, Yongseok Shin, N. Trachter
Why don't poor countries adopt more productive technologies? Is there a role for policies that coordinate technology adoption? To answer these questions, we develop a quantitative model that features complementarity in firms' technology adoption decisions: The gains from adoption are larger when more firms adopt. When this complementarity is strong, multiple equilibria and hence coordination failures are possible. More important, even without equilibrium multiplicity, the model elements responsible for the complementarity can substantially amplify the effect of distortions and policies. In what we call the Big Push region, the impact of idiosyncratic distortions is over three times larger than in models without such complementarity. This amplification enables our model to nearly fully account for the income gap between India and the US without coordination failures playing a role.
{"title":"Big Push in Distorted Economies","authors":"Francisco J. Buera, Hugo Hopenhayn, Yongseok Shin, N. Trachter","doi":"10.21144/WP21-07","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21144/WP21-07","url":null,"abstract":"Why don't poor countries adopt more productive technologies? Is there a role for policies that coordinate technology adoption? To answer these questions, we develop a quantitative model that features complementarity in firms' technology adoption decisions: The gains from adoption are larger when more firms adopt. When this complementarity is strong, multiple equilibria and hence coordination failures are possible. More important, even without equilibrium multiplicity, the model elements responsible for the complementarity can substantially amplify the effect of distortions and policies. In what we call the Big Push region, the impact of idiosyncratic distortions is over three times larger than in models without such complementarity. This amplification enables our model to nearly fully account for the income gap between India and the US without coordination failures playing a role.","PeriodicalId":19091,"journal":{"name":"NBER Working Paper Series","volume":"5 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91442391","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Morgan C. Williams, Nathan Weil, Elizabeth Rasich, Jens Ludwig, Hye Chang, Sophia Egrari
Body-worn cameras (BWCs) are an increasingly common tool for police oversight, accountability, and transparency, yet there remains uncertainty about their impacts on policing outcomes. This paper reviews what we know about the benefits of BWCs and how those benefits compare to the costs of this new technology. We make two contributions relative to existing research. First, we update prior meta-analyses of studies of the impacts of BWCs on policing outcomes to incorporate the most recent, and largest, studies carried out to date in this literature. This additional information provides additional support for the idea that cameras may affect a number of policing outcomes that are important from a social welfare perspective, particularly police use of force. Second, we carry out a benefit-cost analysis of BWCs, as financial barriers are often cited as a key impediment to adoption by police departments. Our baseline estimate for the benefit-cost ratio of BWCs is 4.95. Perhaps as much as one-quarter of the estimated benefits accrue to government budgets directly, which suggests the possibility that this technology could, from the narrow perspective of government budgets, even pay for itself.
Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.
{"title":"Body-Worn Cameras in Policing: Benefits and Costs","authors":"Morgan C. Williams, Nathan Weil, Elizabeth Rasich, Jens Ludwig, Hye Chang, Sophia Egrari","doi":"10.3386/W28622","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28622","url":null,"abstract":"Body-worn cameras (BWCs) are an increasingly common tool for police oversight, accountability, and transparency, yet there remains uncertainty about their impacts on policing outcomes. This paper reviews what we know about the benefits of BWCs and how those benefits compare to the costs of this new technology. We make two contributions relative to existing research. First, we update prior meta-analyses of studies of the impacts of BWCs on policing outcomes to incorporate the most recent, and largest, studies carried out to date in this literature. This additional information provides additional support for the idea that cameras may affect a number of policing outcomes that are important from a social welfare perspective, particularly police use of force. Second, we carry out a benefit-cost analysis of BWCs, as financial barriers are often cited as a key impediment to adoption by police departments. Our baseline estimate for the benefit-cost ratio of BWCs is 4.95. Perhaps as much as one-quarter of the estimated benefits accrue to government budgets directly, which suggests the possibility that this technology could, from the narrow perspective of government budgets, even pay for itself.<br><br>Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at <a href=\"http://www.nber.org/papers/w28622\" TARGET=\"_blank\">www.nber.org</a>.<br>","PeriodicalId":19091,"journal":{"name":"NBER Working Paper Series","volume":"25 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72589429","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In 2019, production on federal lands comprised 40% of domestic coal, 22% of domestic oil, and 12% of domestic natural gas production. Currently, the federal fossil fuel leasing program does not consider the climate costs of burning federal fossil fuels. One way to do so is through a climate royalty surcharge in addition to the current royalty rate, set in 1920, of 12.5% (18.75% offshore). We consider determining this surcharge by maximizing revenue, maximizing welfare, or setting royalties to achieve 80% of the emissions reductions of an outright leasing ban. Using the model in Prest (2021), we calculate the resulting surcharges and their implications. We estimate that all three approaches would lead to meaningful declines in global emissions, and the first two would substantially increase royalty receipts, which are split with the state of production. For example, we estimate that choosing a common royalty rate to maximize revenues yields a climate royalty surcharge of 39%, increases annual royalty receipts by $6.2B, and reduces global emissions by 37 to 63 MMton CO2e/year.
{"title":"Climate Royalty Surcharges","authors":"Brian C. Prest, J. Stock","doi":"10.3386/W28564","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28564","url":null,"abstract":"In 2019, production on federal lands comprised 40% of domestic coal, 22% of domestic oil, and 12% of domestic natural gas production. Currently, the federal fossil fuel leasing program does not consider the climate costs of burning federal fossil fuels. One way to do so is through a climate royalty surcharge in addition to the current royalty rate, set in 1920, of 12.5% (18.75% offshore). We consider determining this surcharge by maximizing revenue, maximizing welfare, or setting royalties to achieve 80% of the emissions reductions of an outright leasing ban. Using the model in Prest (2021), we calculate the resulting surcharges and their implications. We estimate that all three approaches would lead to meaningful declines in global emissions, and the first two would substantially increase royalty receipts, which are split with the state of production. For example, we estimate that choosing a common royalty rate to maximize revenues yields a climate royalty surcharge of 39%, increases annual royalty receipts by $6.2B, and reduces global emissions by 37 to 63 MMton CO2e/year.","PeriodicalId":19091,"journal":{"name":"NBER Working Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83167030","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
David N. Figlio, Paola Giuliano, Riccardo Marchingiglio, Umut Ozek, Paola Sapienza
We study the effect of exposure to immigrants on the educational outcomes of U.S.-born students, using a unique dataset combining population-level birth and school records from Florida. This research question is complicated by substantial school selection of U.S.-born students, especially among White and comparatively affluent students, in response to the presence of immigrant students in the school. We propose a new identification strategy, comparing sibling outcomes with the inclusion of family fixed effects, to partial out the unobserved non-random selection of native-born families into schools. We find that the presence of immigrant students has a positive effect on the academic achievement of U.S.-born students, especially for students from disadvantaged backgrounds. Moreover, the presence of immigrants does not negatively affect the performance of affluent U.S.- born students, who typically show a higher academic achievement compared to immigrant students.
{"title":"Diversity in Schools: Immigrants and the Educational Performance of U.S. Born Students","authors":"David N. Figlio, Paola Giuliano, Riccardo Marchingiglio, Umut Ozek, Paola Sapienza","doi":"10.3386/W28596","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28596","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We study the effect of exposure to immigrants on the educational outcomes of U.S.-born students, using a unique dataset combining population-level birth and school records from Florida. This research question is complicated by substantial school selection of U.S.-born students, especially among White and comparatively affluent students, in response to the presence of immigrant students in the school. We propose a new identification strategy, comparing sibling outcomes with the inclusion of family fixed effects, to partial out the unobserved non-random selection of native-born families into schools. We find that the presence of immigrant students has a positive effect on the academic achievement of U.S.-born students, especially for students from disadvantaged backgrounds. Moreover, the presence of immigrants does not negatively affect the performance of affluent U.S.- born students, who typically show a higher academic achievement compared to immigrant students.","PeriodicalId":19091,"journal":{"name":"NBER Working Paper Series","volume":"52 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84012405","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Using smartphone data for Japan, we show that non-commuting trips are frequent, more localized than commuting trips, strongly related to the availability of nontraded services, and occur along trip chains. Guided by these empirical findings, we develop a quantitative urban model that incorporates travel to work and travel to consume non-traded services. We use the gravity equation predictions of the model to estimate theoretically-consistent measures of travel access. We show that consumption access makes a substantial contribution to the observed variation in residents and land prices and the observed impact of the opening of a new subway line. Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.
{"title":"Consumption Access and the Spatial Concentration of Economic Activity: Evidence from Smartphone Data","authors":"Y. Miyauchi, K. Nakajima, S. Redding","doi":"10.3386/w28497","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w28497","url":null,"abstract":"Using smartphone data for Japan, we show that non-commuting trips are frequent, more localized than commuting trips, strongly related to the availability of nontraded services, and occur along trip chains. Guided by these empirical findings, we develop a quantitative urban model that incorporates travel to work and travel to consume non-traded services. We use the gravity equation predictions of the model to estimate theoretically-consistent measures of travel access. We show that consumption access makes a substantial contribution to the observed variation in residents and land prices and the observed impact of the opening of a new subway line. Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.","PeriodicalId":19091,"journal":{"name":"NBER Working Paper Series","volume":"90 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74204663","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Using data from about seven millions room postings by hotels in France and the UK, we document that, rather than smoothly decreasing to zero, cancellation premia remain positive at roughly 10%to 15% of the full price until two days before the stay. A model where travelers have different willingness to pay and some overestimate the probability to cancel their trip explains this price-setting mode more consistently than alternative interpretations. We denote these strategies as a form of naivete-based price discrimination. We use our model also to identify conditions under which these strategies are exploitative of certain consumers, or are welfare enhancing instead. Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.
{"title":"Sticky Price for Declining Risk? The Case of Cancellation Premia in the Hotel Industry","authors":"N. Lacetera, C. Piga, L. Zirulia","doi":"10.3386/W28456","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28456","url":null,"abstract":"Using data from about seven millions room postings by hotels in France and the UK, we document that, rather than smoothly decreasing to zero, cancellation premia remain positive at roughly 10%to 15% of the full price until two days before the stay. A model where travelers have different willingness to pay and some overestimate the probability to cancel their trip explains this price-setting mode more consistently than alternative interpretations. We denote these strategies as a form of naivete-based price discrimination. We use our model also to identify conditions under which these strategies are exploitative of certain consumers, or are welfare enhancing instead. \u0000 \u0000Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.","PeriodicalId":19091,"journal":{"name":"NBER Working Paper Series","volume":"2015 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73300258","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A. Ahuja, S. Athey, Arthur Baker, Eric Budish, Juan Camilo Castillo, R. Glennerster, S. Kominers, M. Kremer, Jean N. Lee, Canice Prendergast, Christopher M. Snyder, A. Tabarrok, B. Tan, W. Więcek
Vaccinating the world's population quickly in a pandemic has enormous health and economic benefits. We analyze the problem faced by governments in determining the scale and structure of procurement for vaccines. We analyze alternative approaches to procurement, arguing that buyers should directly fund manufacturing capacity and shoulder most of the risk of failure while maintaining some direct incentives for speed. We analyzed the optimal portfolio of vaccine investments for countries with different characteristics as well as the implications for international cooperation. Our analysis, considered in light of the experience of 2020, suggests lessons for future pandemics.
{"title":"Preparing for a Pandemic: Accelerating Vaccine Availability","authors":"A. Ahuja, S. Athey, Arthur Baker, Eric Budish, Juan Camilo Castillo, R. Glennerster, S. Kominers, M. Kremer, Jean N. Lee, Canice Prendergast, Christopher M. Snyder, A. Tabarrok, B. Tan, W. Więcek","doi":"10.3386/W28492","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28492","url":null,"abstract":"Vaccinating the world's population quickly in a pandemic has enormous health and economic benefits. We analyze the problem faced by governments in determining the scale and structure of procurement for vaccines. We analyze alternative approaches to procurement, arguing that buyers should directly fund manufacturing capacity and shoulder most of the risk of failure while maintaining some direct incentives for speed. We analyzed the optimal portfolio of vaccine investments for countries with different characteristics as well as the implications for international cooperation. Our analysis, considered in light of the experience of 2020, suggests lessons for future pandemics.","PeriodicalId":19091,"journal":{"name":"NBER Working Paper Series","volume":"6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82731531","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We explore whether ageist stereotypes in job ads are detectable using machine learning methods measuring the linguistic similarity of job-ad language to ageist stereotypes identified by industrial psychologists. We then conduct an experiment to evaluate whether this language is perceived as biased against older workers. We find that language classified by the machine learning algorithm as closely related to ageist stereotypes is perceived as ageist by experimental subjects. The scores assigned to the language related to ageist stereotypes are larger when responses are incentivized by rewarding participants for guessing how other respondents rated the language. These methods could potentially help enforce anti-discrimination laws by using job ads to predict or identify employers more likely to be engaging in age discrimination.
{"title":"Machine Learning and Perceived Age Stereotypes in Job Ads: Evidence from an Experiment","authors":"I. Burn, Daniel Firoozi, Daniel Ladd, D. Neumark","doi":"10.3386/W28328","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28328","url":null,"abstract":"We explore whether ageist stereotypes in job ads are detectable using machine learning methods measuring the linguistic similarity of job-ad language to ageist stereotypes identified by industrial psychologists. We then conduct an experiment to evaluate whether this language is perceived as biased against older workers. We find that language classified by the machine learning algorithm as closely related to ageist stereotypes is perceived as ageist by experimental subjects. The scores assigned to the language related to ageist stereotypes are larger when responses are incentivized by rewarding participants for guessing how other respondents rated the language. These methods could potentially help enforce anti-discrimination laws by using job ads to predict or identify employers more likely to be engaging in age discrimination.","PeriodicalId":19091,"journal":{"name":"NBER Working Paper Series","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78878138","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.1016/J.ECONMOD.2021.02.010
Y. Gorodnichenko, Oleksandr Talavera, Nam T. Vu
{"title":"Quality and Price Setting of High-Tech Goods","authors":"Y. Gorodnichenko, Oleksandr Talavera, Nam T. Vu","doi":"10.1016/J.ECONMOD.2021.02.010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ECONMOD.2021.02.010","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":19091,"journal":{"name":"NBER Working Paper Series","volume":"163 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88816040","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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