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Digital Twin of a Generic Jack-Up Platform 通用自升式平台的数字孪生
Pub Date : 2023-04-24 DOI: 10.4043/32221-ms
Shanli Zhang, Chi Zhang, H. Santo, M. Cai, M. Si, Jixing Cao, S. Quek
A development of physics-based digital twinning of a generic jack-up platform is presented in this paper. Due to lack of field measurement data, a generic large-scale jack-up model was designed, fabricated and tested in TCOMS ocean basin at 1:30 scale under different configurations, with the objective to provide high-quality datasets to validate the proposed digital twin methodologies. The framework and the performance of the digital twin are demonstrated using a realistic and representative basin-scale model as a proof-of-concept. Fundamental to any physics-based digital twins is the establishment of numerical models capable of reproducing consistent behaviors and responses of the physical assets. For this digital twin development, a full order model (FOM) and a reduced order model (ROM) are established. In view of uncertainties associated with the physical asset and numerical modelling, e.g., foundation fixities, leg stiffness, leg-hull connection stiffness and hydrodynamic coefficients, model updating or system identification is performed using the ROM to identify the parameters with relatively large uncertainties. A mapping between the parameters and the associated responses of the FOM and the ROM is subsequently established. After the model updating is completed with the identified parameters, good agreement in terms of the structural responses between the model test and numerical results can be achieved. Both the FOM and ROM are able to reproduce structural responses with good accuracy when compared to physical measurements. The ROM, being a linear structural model based on modal responses, is unable to account for larger non-linear effects due to spudcan fixities, if any. Nevertheless, the ROM is suitable for fatigue evaluation considering fast computational speed and validity of the piecewise linear constraints as assumed for the foundation. The FOM, being less computationally efficient, is suitable for strength evaluation and able to account for any non-linear structural behaviors. The results of boundary displacements from the global dynamic response analysis can be mapped to a detailed local joint model to derive the hotspots stress for a more accurate fatigue evaluation. The digital twin framework for fatigue and strength evaluations based on measured wave loading is demonstrated for a better structural integrity management. As an emerging technology, digital twin will provide visibility of structural health condition to facilitate the transition from preventive to predictive and reliability-centered maintenance strategies. Although the digital twin framework presented in the paper makes use of a representative jack-up at model-scale, the proposed methodology can be potentially applied to full-scale operating jack-ups.
本文介绍了通用自升式平台基于物理的数字孪生技术的发展。由于缺乏现场测量数据,为了提供高质量的数据集来验证所提出的数字孪生方法,在TCOMS海洋盆地中设计、制作了一个通用的大尺度自升式模型,并在不同配置下以1:30的比例进行了测试。数字孪生的框架和性能使用一个现实的和代表性的盆地尺度模型作为概念验证。任何基于物理的数字孪生的基础都是建立能够再现物理资产一致行为和响应的数值模型。针对这种数字孪生模型的开发,建立了全阶模型(FOM)和降阶模型(ROM)。针对物理资产和数值建模的不确定性,如基础固定性、支腿刚度、支腿-船体连接刚度、水动力系数等,利用ROM进行模型更新或系统识别,识别不确定性较大的参数。随后建立了FOM和ROM的参数和相关响应之间的映射。利用识别的参数完成模型更新后,模型试验结果与数值计算结果吻合较好。与物理测量相比,FOM和ROM都能够以良好的精度再现结构响应。ROM是基于模态响应的线性结构模型,如果存在,则无法解释由于spudcan固定引起的更大的非线性效应。然而,考虑到计算速度快和分段线性约束的有效性,ROM适用于疲劳评估。FOM计算效率较低,适用于强度评估,能够考虑任何非线性结构行为。从整体动力响应分析得到的边界位移结果可以映射到详细的局部节点模型中,从而得到热点应力,从而更准确地进行疲劳评估。基于实测波浪载荷的疲劳和强度评估的数字孪生框架证明了更好的结构完整性管理。作为一项新兴技术,数字孪生将提供结构健康状况的可见性,以促进从预防性到预测性和以可靠性为中心的维护策略的转变。虽然本文中提出的数字孪生框架使用的是模型规模的代表性自升式平台,但所提出的方法可以潜在地应用于全尺寸的自升式平台。
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引用次数: 0
A New Experimental Core Analysis Method for Formation Permeability Measurement Under Two-Phase Condition 两相条件下储层渗透率试验岩心分析新方法
Pub Date : 2023-04-24 DOI: 10.4043/32249-ms
Fengyuan Zhang, Qiang Zhang, Zhengxin Zhang, Z. Rui, Yueliang Liu, Wei Zhang, X. Zheng, F. Torabi, A. Afanasyev
Experimental methods for core plug analysis are widely used to measure formation permeability under steady-state flow or unsteady state flow conditions, which provides important geoscience information on formation properties. However, typical laboratory techniques hardly reproduce the two-phase water and hydrocarbon storage and transport conditions that formation is subject to in reality. Accordingly, we presented an integrated experimental core analysis method for permeability measurement, which better reproduces these two-phase conditions. The proposed experimental method consists of two-phase fluid initialization and production test, during which the gas rate, liquid rate, and inlet/outlet pressure of the core plug are recorded simultaneously. After constructing with uniform distribution of gas and liquid, the core sample is transformed into a two-phase production process under the conditions of variable rate and sealed boundary. Rate transient analysis is performed to estimate formation permeability with the gathered two-phase rate decline and pressure data. A two-phase diagnostic plot and specialty plot are introduced to identify flow regimes and extract permeability from the slope of a straight line during the experimental data analysis. In this paper, commercial software is used to generate synthetic data for the production test of a core plug. The simulation of two-phase fluid initialization and production tests were conducted on core plugs. The simulation results show a unit-slope straight line on the generated diagnostic plot, which indicates a clear boundary-dominated flow (BDF) regime. By performing a straight-line analysis, we calculated the permeability of the core plug with the slope of straight-line period on specialty plot. The good match of the calculated permeability with the reference value confirms the accuracy of the proposed experimental method with the relative error less than 10%. In addition, the proposed two-phase core analysis method can enormously accelerate test-time, as the permeability of selected rock sample can be estimated in less than 10 minutes. Instead of measuring permeability only under the condition of single phase flow, this paper presents a laboratory technique that combines the experiment of small-diameter core production test under two-phase flow with rate transient analysis method. Unlike prior experimental techniques, the proposed method reproduces the more realistic condition of two-phase flow in the formation during permeability measurement. The two-phase core analysis method achieves the objective of accurate and fast characterization of formation permeability, which is a more "apples to apples" comparison between the fluid flow in the actual reservoir and the core plug.
岩心塞分析的实验方法被广泛用于测量稳态或非稳态流动条件下的地层渗透率,这为地层性质提供了重要的地球科学信息。然而,典型的实验室技术很难再现现实中地层所受的两相水和碳氢化合物的储存和运输条件。因此,我们提出了一种综合实验岩心分析渗透率测量方法,可以更好地再现这两相条件。所提出的实验方法包括两相流体初始化和生产测试,同时记录岩心塞的气速、液速和进出口压力。经过气液均匀分布的构造,岩心样品在变速率和密封边界条件下转变为两相生产过程。利用收集到的两相速率下降和压力数据,进行速率瞬态分析来估计地层渗透率。在实验数据分析中,引入了两相诊断图和特殊图来识别流型,并从直线斜率中提取渗透率。本文利用商业软件生成岩心塞生产试验的综合数据。在岩心桥塞上进行了两相流体初始化模拟和生产试验。模拟结果显示,在生成的诊断图上有一条单位斜率的直线,显示出明显的边界主导流(BDF)模式。通过直线分析,在专业图上以直线周期斜率计算岩心桥塞渗透率。计算渗透率与参考值吻合较好,验证了实验方法的准确性,相对误差小于10%。此外,所提出的两相岩心分析方法可以在不到10分钟的时间内估计出所选岩样的渗透率,大大加快了测试时间。本文提出了一种将两相流条件下小口径岩心采油试验与速率瞬态分析方法相结合的实验室技术,取代了仅在单相流条件下测量渗透率的方法。与以往的实验技术不同,该方法在渗透率测量过程中更真实地再现了地层中两相流的情况。两相岩心分析方法实现了准确、快速表征地层渗透率的目的,将实际储层流体流动与岩心塞进行了“苹果对苹果”的比较。
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引用次数: 0
Using the Pugh Method to Select a Polymetallic Nodule Vertical Transport System 用Pugh法选择多金属结核垂直输送系统
Pub Date : 2023-04-24 DOI: 10.4043/32426-ms
A. Barr
On the sea floor of specific deep ocean environments lie prolific amounts of polymetallic nodules that contain minerals critical to meeting the future energy demands of a growing worldwide population. Polymetallic nodules rich in manganese, nickel, and cobalt spread over millions of square kilometers of abyssal seabed and contain the minerals needed for future energy storage demands. The offshore oil and gas industry seeks to participate in the energy expansion by leveraging its deepwater experience to harvest these nodules. The knowledge and wisdom gained from decades of operating offshore provides significant insight into the development and implementation of the technology needed to address the challenges of deep sea nodule harvesting. The authors describe a design selection tool based on the methods described by Stuart Pugh to select a polymetallic nodule Vertical Transport System. Stuart Pugh, known for his work in product design and development, introduced the Pugh Method in the 1980s. The Pugh Method is a structured and integrated process applied to design development including concept generation, evaluation, and selection. The Vertical Transport System design processes uses the Pugh Method to recommend a candidate design. The evaluation step uses a two groups of company experts who present the concepts (the team), and collectively evaluate (the group) and recommend the best design concept for further development. We apply the method to the case of deep sea mineral recovery operations specifically the design of the Vertical Transportation System. First, the authors introduce the Pugh Method tool, how it works, and how it applies to this specific case. We describe how risks and rewards relate to each selection characteristic used to evaluate the Vertical Transport System concepts. Further, we talk about team selection and the points to consider when assembling the right team to achieve credible results. Next, we describe each concept identifying and recognizing the various technical, operational, and economic selection characteristics, such as size, power consumption, reliability, availability, etc. Finally, we evaluate each concept against the different selection characteristics and discuss the results. The paper concludes with a robust process flow chart describing the selection method for a Vertical Transport System.
在特定的深海环境的海底蕴藏着大量的多金属结核,其中含有对满足日益增长的世界人口未来的能源需求至关重要的矿物质。富含锰、镍和钴的多金属结核分布在数百万平方公里的深海海底,含有未来能源储存需求所需的矿物质。海上油气行业试图通过利用其深水经验来收获这些结核,从而参与能源扩张。从数十年的海上作业中获得的知识和智慧,为解决深海结核收获挑战所需技术的开发和实施提供了重要的见解。作者介绍了一种基于Stuart Pugh所描述的方法来选择多金属结核垂直输送系统的设计选择工具。以产品设计和开发工作而闻名的斯图尔特·皮尤(Stuart Pugh)在20世纪80年代引入了皮尤方法。Pugh方法是应用于设计开发的结构化和集成过程,包括概念生成、评估和选择。垂直运输系统设计过程使用Pugh方法推荐候选设计。评估步骤使用两组公司专家,他们提出概念(团队),并集体评估(组)并推荐进一步开发的最佳设计概念。我们将该方法应用于深海矿物回收作业的案例,特别是垂直输送系统的设计。首先,作者介绍了Pugh方法工具,它是如何工作的,以及它如何应用于这个特定的案例。我们描述了风险和回报如何与用于评估垂直运输系统概念的每个选择特征相关。此外,我们还讨论了团队选择以及在组建合适的团队以获得可信结果时需要考虑的要点。接下来,我们描述每个概念,识别和认识各种技术、操作和经济选择特征,如尺寸、功耗、可靠性、可用性等。最后,我们根据不同的选择特征对每个概念进行评估,并讨论结果。最后给出了描述垂直输送系统选择方法的鲁棒过程流程图。
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引用次数: 0
Efficient Survey Tools for an Improved Understanding of Deep Seabed Minerals 提高对深海海底矿物认识的有效测量工具
Pub Date : 2023-04-24 DOI: 10.4043/32490-ms
R. Bosler, Simen Rønne, David Furmidge, Alfhild Waeroe, Johann Rangua, Craig Ferguson
The proposed paper presents a novel method of sampling potential polymetallic nodule and manganese crust extraction sites that improves the efficiency and effectiveness of the campaign when compared to traditional surveying methods. The new method utilizes a work-class ROV to perform survey sampling and testing tasks at a relatively large number of sites per dive. The ROV platform enables the use of precision measurement devices such as high-resolution sonar, cone penetrometer test (CPT) systems and core drilling machines to take in-situ samples and measurements. An ROV mounted skid with integrated sample storage drawers allows samples to be taken from numerous sites using ROV resources and manipulators. Transiting from sample site to sample site at depth improves the efficiency of sampling campaigns especially at very deep polymetallic nodule fields up to 6000 meters deep. Initial studies have shown that high resolution sonar scans can measure nodule abundance and size with sufficient accuracy over a much greater area in less time when compared to traditional box coring methods. Studies of nodule and manganese crust sampling campaign durations have shown that transiting from site to site with the ROV at depth reduces the total duration of a representative sampling campaign by 50% or more. Incorporation of a high accuracy CPT system onto the ROV skid enables in-situ geotechnical testing at depth that are more accurate than the traditional method of measuring sub-core samples taken from box core samples at surface laboratories. For manganese crust fields, a novel core sampling drill rig is capable of drilling core holes on sea floor slopes from 0 – 90° without the need for the ROV to land. These advantages combined with the adaptable capability of manipulator systems to collect samples and the ability to provide high-definition video footage of seafloor topology will result in significant improvements to the efficiency and quality of polymetallic nodule and manganese crust site evaluation. The expected gains in cost and accuracy of assessing deep-sea mineral resources will accelerate the pace of material extraction projects and allow greater investment in marine mineral extraction projects due to greater confidence of project success.
本文提出了一种新的多金属结核和锰结壳提取地点的采样方法,与传统的测量方法相比,该方法提高了该活动的效率和有效性。新方法利用工作级ROV在每次潜水中在相对较多的地点执行调查抽样和测试任务。ROV平台可以使用高精度测量设备,如高分辨率声纳、锥形探深仪测试(CPT)系统和岩心钻机,进行现场取样和测量。ROV安装的滑橇带有集成的样品存储抽屉,可以使用ROV资源和操纵器从多个地点采集样品。从一个采样点到另一个采样点的深度转换提高了采样活动的效率,特别是在深达6000米的非常深的多金属结核油田。最初的研究表明,与传统的箱形取心方法相比,高分辨率声纳扫描可以在更短的时间内,在更大的区域内,以足够的精度测量结节的丰度和大小。对结核和锰结壳取样持续时间的研究表明,使用ROV从一个地点转移到另一个地点,可以将代表性取样活动的总持续时间减少50%或更多。将高精度CPT系统集成到ROV滑块上,可以在深度进行原位岩土测试,比在地面实验室测量从箱形岩心样本中提取的亚岩心样本的传统方法更准确。对于锰壳油田,一种新型岩芯取样钻机能够在0 - 90°的海底斜坡上钻取岩芯孔,而无需ROV着陆。这些优势与机械臂系统采集样品的适应性以及提供海底拓扑的高清视频片段的能力相结合,将显著提高多金属结核和锰结壳现场评估的效率和质量。深海矿物资源评估成本和准确性的预期收益将加快物质开采项目的步伐,并由于对项目成功的更大信心而允许对海洋矿物开采项目进行更大的投资。
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引用次数: 0
Unsteady-State Mechanical Formation Damage Modeling in Pressure-Sensitive Oil Reservoirs Near No-Flow Boundaries Using a Coupled-Integro-Differential-Perturbation Method 基于积分-微分-摄动耦合方法的无流边界压敏油藏非稳态机械地层损伤建模
Pub Date : 2023-04-24 DOI: 10.4043/32253-ms
F. Fernandes, A. Braga, Petrobras Ant°audio Soares
Identification of no-flow zones and mechanical formation damage management are essential for a successful exploratory and production campaign during the development of an oil field. This work develops a new unsteady-state two-dimensional (2-D) integro-differential solution for permeability loss monitoring in a well near an infinite sealing fault. The model presented in this study allows solving the nonlinear hydraulic diffusivity equation (NHDE) with the oil source term. The proper Green's Function (GF) for an infinite sealed barrier represents the well's instantaneous oil point-source/sink effect. Based on image method (IM), the pressure field for the constant permeability solution is given by the sum of two exponential integral functions Ei(tD). However, this solution does not consider the nonlinear effect caused by pressure-sensitive permeability loss. A new deviation factor ξ(p) is derived and coupled to an asymptotic first-order series expansion to deal with this phenomenon. The model also allows for evaluating the oil flow rate influence on the permeability loss during the well-reservoir production curve. Sensitivity analysis investigates the parameters that highly influence the diffusivity deviation factor. Pressure and permeability input data were obtained through a uni-axial test performed in two sandstone layers of the same reservoir rock in an offshore field in Brazil. The analytical solution addressed in this paper was calibrated by a porous media oil flow simulator named IMEX®, broadly used in reservoir engineering works, and the results were accurate. The results present the instantaneous permeability decay effect by a deviation compared to the linear solution in a semi-log plot. The main advantages of the proposed solution are the accuracy, availability of a comprehensive table of the GFs, ease of implementation, and computational cost savings. It constitutes a valuable and attractive mathematical tool to calibrate new models and support well-reservoir performance management.
在油田开发过程中,无流层的识别和机械地层损伤管理对于成功的勘探和生产活动至关重要。本文提出了一种新的非稳态二维(2d)积分微分解,用于无限密封断层附近井的渗透率损失监测。该模型允许用油源项求解非线性水力扩散方程(NHDE)。对于无限密封屏障,适当的格林函数(GF)代表了油井的瞬时油点源/汇效应。基于图像法(IM),用两个指数积分函数Ei(tD)的和给出了恒渗透率解的压力场。然而,该方案没有考虑压敏渗透率损失引起的非线性效应。导出了一个新的偏差因子ξ(p),并将其与渐近一阶级数展开相耦合以处理这一现象。该模型还允许在井-储生产曲线中评估油流量对渗透率损失的影响。灵敏度分析研究了对扩散系数偏差系数影响较大的参数。压力和渗透率输入数据是通过在巴西海上油田同一储层的两个砂岩层进行单轴测试获得的。本文采用广泛应用于油藏工程的多孔介质油流模拟器IMEX®对解析解进行了标定,结果准确。结果表明,与半对数图的线性解相比,渗透率的瞬时衰减效应有一个偏差。所提出的解决方案的主要优点是准确性、GFs综合表的可用性、易于实现和节省计算成本。它是一种有价值和有吸引力的数学工具,用于校准新模型和支持井-油藏动态管理。
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引用次数: 0
A Novel Hydraulics Design Approach Enables Simplified Configuration Offshore Wells 新型水力设计方法简化海上油井配置
Pub Date : 2023-04-24 DOI: 10.4043/32570-ms
U. Sansoni, A. Waldmann, Gabriela Márcia Ribeiro Menezes, K. Gonzaga, Daniel Suchodolak, A. Martins
The reduction of the number of sections in the construction of an offshore well is a major driver for cost reduction. In order to achieve this goal, the sections must be longer, resulting in additional challenges. A critical aspect is related to the second section (no fluid return to surface) reaching high inclinations and longer extensions. Such sections are drilled with fluids with no carrying capacity, reaching 1500 m and inclinations as high as 65 degrees, resulting in expressive cuttings accumulation in the wellbore annulus. The scope of this article is to present a novel hydraulics design procedure which accounts for the effect of hole cleaning actions during well construction which reposition hydraulic parameters into acceptable criteria. This paper details novel design procedures which include the following steps: Defining cuttings bed height deposited along the wellbore annulus using traditional steady state cuttings transport models. This information is the initial condition for the design of hole cleaning pills pumping. Estimation of the extension of the cuttings bed through a material balance. Estimation of drag efforts for drillstring movement in the presence of a cuttings bed and the maximum well length which can be handled by the rig without carrying extra hole cleaning procedures. Calculation of the solids removal due to the pumping of hole cleaning pills based on a transient solid-liquid model. Optimization of the frequency, volumes and pump rates for the cleaning pills. This way, the proposed methodology allows the creation of a hydraulics design package which incorporates the optimization of hole cleaning actions during the drilling of a deviated well with fluids which do not present cuttings carrying capacity. The procedure was successfully implemented in 4 offshore wells in Campos basin, offshore Brazil, which were built in only 3 sections including a horizontal section. The present methodology is a milestone in hydraulics design for offshore wells, enabling the construction of horizontal wells in 3 phases resulting in a huge well construction time reduction.
减少海上油井的施工段数是降低成本的主要驱动力。为了实现这一目标,部分必须更长,从而产生额外的挑战。一个关键的方面是与第二段(没有流体返回地面)有关,达到大倾角和更长的延伸。这些井段的钻井液没有携带能力,钻进深度达到1500米,井斜高达65度,导致岩屑在井筒环空堆积。本文的范围是提出一种新的水力设计程序,该程序考虑了井建过程中井眼清洗动作的影响,将水力参数重新定位为可接受的标准。本文详细介绍了新的设计流程,包括以下步骤:利用传统的稳态岩屑运移模型确定沿井筒环空沉积的岩屑层高度。这些信息是设计井眼清丸泵的初始条件。通过物料衡算估算岩屑床的延伸。在存在岩屑床的情况下,估算钻柱移动的阻力,以及钻机可以处理的最大井长,而无需进行额外的井眼清洗程序。基于瞬态固液模型的井眼清丸泵送固相去除计算。优化清洗丸的频率、体积和泵速。通过这种方式,所提出的方法可以创建一个液压设计包,该包包含了在斜井钻井过程中对不具有岩屑携带能力的流体进行井眼清洁的优化。该方法在巴西海上Campos盆地的4口海上井中成功实施,这些井只建了3个井段,其中包括一个水平井段。目前的方法是海上油井液压设计的一个里程碑,可以分三期进行水平井施工,从而大大缩短了施工时间。
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引用次数: 0
Machine-Learning-Based Proxy Modelling for Geothermal Field Development Optimisation 基于机器学习的地热田开发优化代理模型
Pub Date : 2023-04-24 DOI: 10.4043/32301-ms
Daniel Asante Otchere, A. Latiff, Mohamed Yassir Taki, L. Dafyak
More than 40 billion tonnes of CO2 are released annually, hampering climate change efforts. The goal of current research is to utilise these gases in generating energy. The oil and gas industry faces increasing expectations to clarify the implications of energy transitions for their operations and business models, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and achieve the Paris Agreement and Glasgow Climate Pact targets. A solution is integrating machine learning and geothermal energy to optimise field development to reduce CO2 emissions while meeting energy demands. The study area is a simulated actual field data, with three existing geothermal doublets and six exploration wells. The development plan aims to satisfy the energy demand for two locations, D1 and D2, for the next 100 years, using geothermal energy and optimising field development plans via machine learning models as surrogate models. A pseudo-geological model was developed using limited field data to identify sweet spots for further drilling. Four separate model cases were simulated using DARTS. The time-energy data from DARTS was then used to train and test several machine learning models to serve as a proxy model to optimise the best strategy to meet the energy demand. The economic model was simulated for 20 years for the selected strategy for field development. Using an injection rate of 500 m3/day per well to validate the ML models, the best-performing model had a mean absolute error within the range of 0.6 to 1.5 MW for all the doublets. Based on the ML results, the computational power and time required for field development plan simulation were dramatically reduced, and several configurations were performed. The optimal strategy for this field comprises 7 geothermal doublets, 3 for D1 and 4 for D2. This strategy uses all available wells to avoid lost investment or excess cost when those wells are needed to complement production when decline sets in after 20 years, allowing a reliable and long-term energy supply. This strategy will achieve a net energy output of 108 MW for D2 and 82 for D1. This strategy uses machine learning energy estimation for the optimum configuration and addresses the issues of excess energy storage, uncertainty in production, and rising energy demand. The economic model was based on a fixed OPEX, an estimated Capex based on field development strategy, and an associated discount rate of 7%. The project resulted in a Levelized Cost of Energy of €11.16/MWH for 20 years whiles reducing annual CO2 emissions by about 367,000 metric tons. This study shows that geothermal energy is a crucial step toward cleaner energy. ML can speed up the energy transition by optimising geothermal field development. This research aims to reduce CO2 emissions while meeting energy needs.
每年排放的二氧化碳超过400亿吨,阻碍了气候变化的努力。目前研究的目标是利用这些气体来发电。油气行业面临着越来越多的期望,需要澄清能源转型对其运营和商业模式的影响,减少温室气体排放,实现《巴黎协定》和《格拉斯哥气候公约》的目标。一种解决方案是整合机器学习和地热能,以优化油田开发,减少二氧化碳排放,同时满足能源需求。研究区为模拟实际野外数据,现有3个地热双峰,6口勘探井。该开发计划旨在满足D1和D2两个地点未来100年的能源需求,利用地热能,并通过机器学习模型作为替代模型来优化油田开发计划。利用有限的现场数据建立了一个伪地质模型,以确定进一步钻井的甜点。使用dart对四个独立的模型案例进行了模拟。然后使用来自DARTS的时间-能量数据来训练和测试几个机器学习模型,作为代理模型来优化满足能源需求的最佳策略。该经济模型对油田开发策略进行了20年的模拟。使用每口井500 m3/天的注入速率来验证ML模型,性能最好的模型的平均绝对误差在0.6至1.5 MW之间。基于ML结果,油田开发计划模拟所需的计算能力和时间大大降低,并执行了几种配置。该油田的最优策略为7个地热双峰,D1为3个,D2为4个。该策略利用所有可用的井,避免了投资损失或额外成本,当20年后产量开始下降时,这些井需要补充产量,从而实现了可靠和长期的能源供应。这一策略将使D2的净能量输出达到108兆瓦,D1的净能量输出达到82兆瓦。该策略使用机器学习能量估计来实现最优配置,并解决了储能过剩、生产不确定性和能源需求上升等问题。该经济模型基于固定的运营成本、基于油田开发策略的估计资本支出以及7%的相关贴现率。该项目在20年内实现了11.16欧元/兆瓦时的平准化能源成本,同时每年减少约367,000公吨的二氧化碳排放量。这项研究表明,地热能是迈向清洁能源的关键一步。ML可以通过优化地热田开发来加速能源转换。这项研究旨在减少二氧化碳排放,同时满足能源需求。
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引用次数: 1
Buzios: The Development of Well Construction in a Giant Pre-Salt Field 大型盐下油田建井技术的发展
Pub Date : 2023-04-24 DOI: 10.4043/32246-ms
E. Sortica, J. Percy, Leonardo Paiva Goulart, Manuel Parcero Oliveira
Búzios is the largest ultra-deep water oil field in the world, located on the Brazilian coast, in the pre-salt polygon. Its development has taken place at an accelerated pace, with more than 60 wells already drilled and 4 FPSO's operating by the end of 2022, and a forecast of 7 more installed up to 2026, and at least 80 more wells till 2030. In this way, well configurations represent a great challenge, requiring technological and technical developments to allow high production flow and maintenance of integrity throughout the field's productive life, estimated in 30 years. Several well configurations, whether in drilling or in completion, were applied with greater or lesser success, bringing objective results in the reduction of time in well construction: from 130 days at the beginning of development to durations of less than 80 days, reducing CAPEX and increasing the rate of return on investment. This work aims to describe the various challenges faced in the design of well projects and construction, whether in drilling or completion, as well as how the geological characteristics of the field influenced the choices and methodologies adopted. In addition, demonstrate how the methodologies contributed to improve the quality of construction and linked to the reduction of time and costs.
Búzios是世界上最大的超深水油田,位于巴西海岸的盐下多边形。它的发展速度正在加快,到2022年底,已经钻探了60多口井,4艘FPSO投入使用,预计到2026年还将安装7口井,到2030年至少再安装80口井。在这种情况下,井的配置是一个巨大的挑战,需要技术和技术的发展,以实现高生产流量,并在油田的整个生产寿命(估计为30年)中保持完整性。无论是钻井还是完井,几种井的配置都取得了或多或少的成功,从客观上缩短了建井时间:从开发初期的130天缩短到不到80天,降低了资本支出,提高了投资回报率。这项工作的目的是描述在钻井或完井的设计和施工中所面临的各种挑战,以及油田的地质特征如何影响所采用的选择和方法。此外,说明这些方法如何有助于提高施工质量,并与减少时间和成本相联系。
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引用次数: 0
Broachment Studies Considering Fracture Propagation in a Well Containment Analysis 井围分析中考虑裂缝扩展的延伸研究
Pub Date : 2023-04-24 DOI: 10.4043/32271-ms
F. Cutrim, C. Azevedo, Renan Martins Baptista, André Alonso Fernandes
Well Containment Analysis – WCA - is a set of integrity analysis criteria in a shut in scenario performed during the well design phase. The installation of a capping and shut in of the well shall not induce hydrocarbon leakages to the seabed. One of the integrity analysis criteria within WCA is a situation in which the well, in a blowout scenario, is closed with the capping, and a fracture is then initiated at a specific casing shoe of the well, propagating through shallow formations. The analysis ensures that the time for fracture propagation to reach the mudline is longer than the time to drill a relief well and have the well controlled. When considering a situation of a fracture propagation in a blowout scenario after capping and controlling the well there are two main possibilities: (I) a shallow reservoir can absorb the hydrocarbon flow from a deeper reservoir, (II) the time required for the fracture propagation to reach the seabed is greater than the time needed to control the well in blowout situation, guaranteeing that there is no fluid broaching to the seabed. When considering the time for fracture propagation, a safety margin is needed due to uncertainties in the geological data. This work aims to present a few case studies where well projects didn’t attend WCA analysis considering P90 pore pressure scenario and needed further analysis to ensure attendance of well integrity. In this situation, studies were done considering fracture propagation beginning after the well closure due to a hypothetic blowout, trying to analyze if hydrocarbons would broach to the mudline, and if so, how much time such an event could occur. Study results show the impact of geology and geomechanics on fracture propagation. There are situations in which the fracture remains confined due to the presence of a shallower reservoir and others where the fracture broaches to the mudline in a short amount of time. This analysis has the potential to turn the concept of well integrity more flexible, allowing the well designer to combine, in a tentative optimal way, a safe and feasible design in more challenging scenarios.
井封分析(WCA)是在井设计阶段执行的关井方案中的一套完整性分析标准。安装封顶和关闭油井不得导致碳氢化合物泄漏到海底。WCA的完整性分析标准之一是井喷情况下,井盖关闭,然后在井的特定套管鞋处开始裂缝,并通过浅层地层传播。分析表明,裂缝扩展到泥线的时间比钻一口减压井和控制井的时间要长。当考虑井喷封堵后裂缝扩展的情况时,主要有两种可能性:(1)浅层储层能够吸收深层储层的油气流动;(2)井喷工况下裂缝扩展到达海底所需的时间大于井喷工况下控制井所需的时间,保证没有流体拉入海底。在考虑裂缝扩展时间时,由于地质数据的不确定性,需要一个安全裕度。本工作旨在介绍几个案例研究,这些井项目没有参加考虑P90孔隙压力情景的WCA分析,需要进一步分析以确保井的完整性。在这种情况下,研究人员考虑了假设井喷导致的闭井后裂缝扩展,试图分析碳氢化合物是否会延伸到泥线,如果会,这种事件发生的时间。研究结果表明了地质和地质力学对裂缝扩展的影响。在某些情况下,由于存在较浅的储层,裂缝仍然受到限制,而在其他情况下,裂缝在短时间内拉入泥线。这种分析有可能使油井完整性的概念变得更加灵活,使油井设计人员能够以一种尝试性的最佳方式,在更具挑战性的情况下结合一种安全可行的设计。
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引用次数: 0
2023-2027 Capital Project Portfolio: The Strategy and Issues Behind the Challenge to Undertake the New FPSOs Necessary to Fulfill the Company's Pre-Salt Business Plan in Brazil 2023-2027年资本项目组合:为实现公司在巴西的盐下业务计划,承担新fpso所需的挑战背后的战略和问题
Pub Date : 2023-04-24 DOI: 10.4043/32631-ms
Jose Carlos Do Nascimento Travassos, Edmar Diniz de Figueiredo, Lourenço Lustosa Froes Silva, Leonardo Schacherl de Lima, Luiz Felipe Mathias Saramago
The ambitious five-year strategic business plan for Petrobras presented a challenge for its Surface Installation Engineering Department. This paper explores the business case behind the strategy, initiatives and identified issues that enabled Petrobras to design, plan, contract, build and deliver more than fifteen new O&G production systems. The company transformation relied on strategic parallel initiatives. Four areas concentrated the efforts: Corporate Integration, Surface Installations, Subsea Systems and Reservoir Wells. This article focuses on the analysis of the technical actions in the Surface Installation department. Nonetheless, it summarizes the related essential efforts, as well. The optimization process started with high level assumptions, for instance to reinforce one company value. That is, to keep and develop a strong in-house technical knowledge. This allowed to continue a previous development initiative to create internal Concept and Basic Design Engineering for Standard FPSO Design. The major challenge occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic. Petrobras mobilized its longest and largest Organizational Response Structure (EOR) team in its history. It involved all company departments with direct contribution of more than a thousand employees assigned for two years. With deep respect to the lives impacted and lost, there were lessons learned in this process, although Petrobras managed to continue its essential operations. From Corporate Integration perspective, Petrobras actively managed its asset portfolio to reduce the company's debt. Combined with favorable commodity prices, it allowed the company to restore and increase its financial situation to invest in oil production development despite observed volatility in the macroeconomic scenario. Regarding Reservoir and Wells, innovative technology created conditions to reduce the overall completion time. Subsea Systems layout optimizations and a more efficient resource management like the PLSV assigned fleet present significant contribution to the results. Focusing on Surface Installations, in this article are detailed the actions taken to improve the internal conditions to meet the company's strategic plan. Firstly, the reinforcement of internal capacity for Concept and Basic Design Engineering in standard FPSO Design. The portfolio of FPSOs allowed design standardization process to evolve. Optimization in system machinery design templates saved time while respecting each project unique input design conditions. One of the results was a new series of FPSOs with All Electric concept design. It consequently tends to increase efficiency and overall reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Another key point identified was the interface among Petrobras, its supply partners, and shipyards. Through a permanent FPSO market monitoring committee, the process of procuring technical qualification was updated and stimulated early engagement of critical equipment suppliers. Furthermore, Petro
Petrobras雄心勃勃的五年战略业务计划对其地面安装工程部提出了挑战。本文探讨了战略背后的商业案例、计划和确定的问题,这些问题使Petrobras能够设计、规划、签订合同、建造和交付超过15套新的油气生产系统。公司的转型依赖于战略上的并行行动。主要集中在四个方面:公司集成、地面安装、海底系统和油藏井。本文着重分析了地面安装部门的技术动作。尽管如此,它也总结了相关的基本努力。优化过程从高层次的假设开始,例如强化公司价值。也就是说,保持和发展强大的内部技术知识。这使得之前的开发计划得以继续,为标准FPSO设计创建内部概念和基本设计工程。主要挑战发生在COVID-19大流行期间。巴西国家石油公司动员了其历史上最长、最大的组织响应结构(EOR)团队。它涉及到公司所有部门,有一千多名员工直接参与,历时两年。尽管巴西国家石油公司设法继续其基本业务,但我们对受到影响和失去的生命深表敬意,并在此过程中吸取了经验教训。从企业整合的角度来看,巴西国家石油公司积极管理其资产组合,以减少公司的债务。再加上有利的大宗商品价格,该公司得以恢复并增加其财务状况,以便在宏观经济形势波动的情况下投资于石油生产开发。在油藏和油井方面,创新技术为缩短整体完井时间创造了条件。海底系统布局优化和更有效的资源管理(如PLSV分配的船队)对结果做出了重大贡献。本文以地面设施为重点,详细介绍了为改善内部条件以满足公司战略计划而采取的行动。第一,加强标准FPSO设计中概念和基础设计工程的内部能力。fpso的组合使设计标准化过程得以发展。系统机械设计模板的优化节省了时间,同时尊重每个项目独特的输入设计条件。其中一个成果是采用全电动概念设计的新系列fpso。因此,它倾向于提高效率和全面减少温室气体排放。确定的另一个关键点是Petrobras、其供应合作伙伴和造船厂之间的接口。通过常设FPSO市场监测委员会,更新了采购技术资格的过程,并刺激了关键设备供应商的早期参与。此外,巴西国家石油公司一直在不断改进每个FPSO项目的合同条款起草,以激发共同利益。最后,在FPSO建造和调试阶段也有改进。上述努力有望增加Petrobras实现其战略计划和可持续增长的机会。从15个油气生产系统的同步生产中吸取了经验教训。对于任何一家运营商来说,这都是相当多的海上项目。
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引用次数: 3
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Day 2 Tue, May 02, 2023
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