For the last decades, regions in the United States have been diverging. More skill-intensive regions have experienced a higher wage and skill premium growth and have become even more skill-intensive. In this paper, I show that this may be driven in part by trade with China. One of the main findings of this paper is that the consequences on local labor markets of higher income competition are highly heterogeneous. In particular, I focus on how consequences of imports from Chinese manufacturers are different depending on the share of college-educated workforce in the regions. Conditional to be exposed to the same level of import competition, effects in terms of wages and growth of college-educated population growth are especially negative for less educated regions. However, this finding does not mean just an attenuation of negative effects for some educated areas. Instead, I find that import competition has net positive effects among more college-educated regions. Indeed, among more skill-intensive regions, a greater exposure to import competition attracts college-educated workers and increases college-wages and skill premium; whereas it has opposite effect among less skill-intensive regions.
{"title":"Regional Divergence and Import Competition","authors":"Javier Quintana Gonzalez","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3184163","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3184163","url":null,"abstract":"For the last decades, regions in the United States have been diverging. More skill-intensive regions have experienced a higher wage and skill premium growth and have become even more skill-intensive. In this paper, I show that this may be driven in part by trade with China. One of the main findings of this paper is that the consequences on local labor markets of higher income competition are highly heterogeneous. In particular, I focus on how consequences of imports from Chinese manufacturers are different depending on the share of college-educated workforce in the regions. Conditional to be exposed to the same level of import competition, effects in terms of wages and growth of college-educated population growth are especially negative for less educated regions. However, this finding does not mean just an attenuation of negative effects for some educated areas. Instead, I find that import competition has net positive effects among more college-educated regions. Indeed, among more skill-intensive regions, a greater exposure to import competition attracts college-educated workers and increases college-wages and skill premium; whereas it has opposite effect among less skill-intensive regions.","PeriodicalId":197385,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Import/Export Strategies (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122452714","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper applies a variety of “mirror statistics” initiatives, practices and experiences of many internationals organizations like United Nations, World Trade Organization, World Customs Organization, and national customs administrations in the world as well as cross-border trade-related findings from mirror analyses of Vietnam in 2010-2016. This paper is intended to answer three main questions: (1) what are the substantial reasons of discrepancies in cross-border trade data from mirror analyses of Vietnam in 2010-2016? (2) How to harmonize and standardize “mirror statistics” in cross-border trade administration of Vietnam? And (3) How to produce an effective model of “mirror statistics” analysis for cross-border trade administration of Vietnam in future?
{"title":"Mirror Study of Vietnam's International Merchandise Trade: Findings and Implications on Cross-Border Trade Administration","authors":"Hien Phan Thi Thu, N. Hung","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3146840","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3146840","url":null,"abstract":"This paper applies a variety of “mirror statistics” initiatives, practices and experiences of many internationals organizations like United Nations, World Trade Organization, World Customs Organization, and national customs administrations in the world as well as cross-border trade-related findings from mirror analyses of Vietnam in 2010-2016. This paper is intended to answer three main questions: (1) what are the substantial reasons of discrepancies in cross-border trade data from mirror analyses of Vietnam in 2010-2016? (2) How to harmonize and standardize “mirror statistics” in cross-border trade administration of Vietnam? And (3) How to produce an effective model of “mirror statistics” analysis for cross-border trade administration of Vietnam in future?","PeriodicalId":197385,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Import/Export Strategies (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123179568","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jangho Choi, Sooho Lim, Seogki Lee, Yoojeong Choi, So Jeong Im
Korean Abstract: 본 연구는 수출입 통계를 비롯해서 북한과 관련된 얼마 되지 않는 자료들을 여러 각도로 분석함으로써 김정은 정권의 산업정책이 얼마만큼 실현되었는지 분석하고자 최초로 시도했다는 점에 차별점이 있다. 본 연구는 정성적인 면에서 지금까지 북한의 대외관계 발전전략이 산업정책에 갖는 함의와 노동신문과 경제연구를 통해 김정은 집권 전후 산업정책에 어떠한 변화가 있었는지에 대한 분석을 시도했다. 또한 정량적인 면에서 통계적으로 북한의 수출입을 산업별·사용목적별·기술수준별 등 다각도로 분석함으로써 북한 내부 산업정책의 변천을 추리했다. 무엇보다 이 연구가 우리 정부의 대북정책 수립과 관련해서 보탬이 되는 정보를 제공하기를 희망한다. English Abstract: 2017 marks the 5th year of Kim Jong Un’s reign, and evaluating the economic performance during this period is meaningful in that by doing so we can measure the future direction of the North Korean economy. However, despite the great efforts made to survey the North Korean economy, there is still only a superficial understanding regarding its economic size, industrial policies, industrial situation, and factories. The purpose of this study is to provide a new type of perspective through analyzing new kinds of data to help evaluate the North Korean economy. To this end, we provide a comparison between the industrial policies of the Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il regimes and the industrial policies emphasized since Kim Jong Un came to power. We then analyze the North Korean import and export data by industry, technology level, and utility purposes. Finally, this research considers the changes in North Korea’s industrial policy and import and export statistics to assess the economic situation of North Korea and the outcomes of its industrial policy after Kim Jong Un’s incumbency, and predicts the effect of sanctions on North Korea’s economy.
Korean Abstract:本研究的不同点在于，通过从多个角度分析进出口统计等与北韩相关的为数不多的资料，首次试图分析金正银政权的产业政策实现了多少。本研究在定性方面，试图通过到目前为止朝鲜对外关系发展战略对产业政策的含义和劳动新闻和经济研究，分析金正恩执政前后产业政策发生了怎样的变化。另外，在定量方面，从统计角度对北韩的进出口按产业类别、使用目的类别、技术水平类别等进行多方面的分析，从而推理出北韩内部产业政策的变迁。最重要的是，希望该研究能提供有关韩国政府制定对北政策的信息。english abstract:2017年marks the 5th year of Kim Jong Un ' s reignand evaluating the economic performance during this period is meaningful in that by doing so we can measure the future direction of the North Korean economy。However, despite the great efforts made to survey the North Korean economy, there is still only a superficial understanding regarding its economic size, industrial policies, industrial situationand factories。The purpose of this study is to provide a new type of perspective through analyzing new kinds of data to help evaluate The North Korean economy。To this end, we provide a comparison between the industrial policies of the Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il regimes and the industrial policies emphasized since Kim Jong Un came To power。We then analyze the North Korean import and export data by industry, technology level, and utility purposes。finally,this research considers the changes in North Korea ' s industrial policy and import and export statistics to assess the economic situation of North Korea and the outcomes of its industrial policy afterKim Jong Un ' s incumbency, and predicts the effect of sanctions on North Korea ' s economy。
{"title":"북한의 무역과 산업정책의 연관성 분석 (Analysis on North Korea's Trade and Industrial Policy)","authors":"Jangho Choi, Sooho Lim, Seogki Lee, Yoojeong Choi, So Jeong Im","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.3087788","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.3087788","url":null,"abstract":"Korean Abstract: 본 연구는 수출입 통계를 비롯해서 북한과 관련된 얼마 되지 않는 자료들을 여러 각도로 분석함으로써 김정은 정권의 산업정책이 얼마만큼 실현되었는지 분석하고자 최초로 시도했다는 점에 차별점이 있다. 본 연구는 정성적인 면에서 지금까지 북한의 대외관계 발전전략이 산업정책에 갖는 함의와 노동신문과 경제연구를 통해 김정은 집권 전후 산업정책에 어떠한 변화가 있었는지에 대한 분석을 시도했다. 또한 정량적인 면에서 통계적으로 북한의 수출입을 산업별·사용목적별·기술수준별 등 다각도로 분석함으로써 북한 내부 산업정책의 변천을 추리했다. 무엇보다 이 연구가 우리 정부의 대북정책 수립과 관련해서 보탬이 되는 정보를 제공하기를 희망한다. English Abstract: 2017 marks the 5th year of Kim Jong Un’s reign, and evaluating the economic performance during this period is meaningful in that by doing so we can measure the future direction of the North Korean economy. However, despite the great efforts made to survey the North Korean economy, there is still only a superficial understanding regarding its economic size, industrial policies, industrial situation, and factories. The purpose of this study is to provide a new type of perspective through analyzing new kinds of data to help evaluate the North Korean economy. To this end, we provide a comparison between the industrial policies of the Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il regimes and the industrial policies emphasized since Kim Jong Un came to power. We then analyze the North Korean import and export data by industry, technology level, and utility purposes. Finally, this research considers the changes in North Korea’s industrial policy and import and export statistics to assess the economic situation of North Korea and the outcomes of its industrial policy after Kim Jong Un’s incumbency, and predicts the effect of sanctions on North Korea’s economy.","PeriodicalId":197385,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Import/Export Strategies (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115639396","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
President Trump broke from decades of Republican support for free trade. Specifically, his brand of economic nationalism encourages US citizens to consume fewer imports and, instead, to "buy American." Surveys show that his rhetoric resonates with voters. But do these attitudes actually affect trade? This paper looks for the "tariff equivalent" effect of Trump's nationalist rhetoric. If voters are increasingly wary of free trade, we should see decreased demand for foreign goods. The observable implication should be declining imports. We test this prediction in the automotive industry-—a large, high-profile industry in which the "foreign vs domestic" distinction is clear. Using monthly imports data for each US state, we test whether Trump's campaign success affected automotive trade. Measuring Trump's political influence and electoral success several ways, we find no correlation between his "buy American" message and import flows. Nor is there are an interactive effect with traits of states' economies, including unemployment rates. Our evidence suggests that there's an important difference between sentiment and behavior. Voters claim to be wary of trade, and yet markets appear to be behaving normally. Our evidence is consistent with existing work that casts doubt on the impact of boycotts and nationalist rhetoric.
{"title":"Political Rhetoric as Trade Barrier: Trump's 'Buy American' Campaign and US Demand for Imports","authors":"Jeffrey Kucik, Krzysztof J. Pelc","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3067518","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3067518","url":null,"abstract":"President Trump broke from decades of Republican support for free trade. Specifically, his brand of economic nationalism encourages US citizens to consume fewer imports and, instead, to \"buy American.\" Surveys show that his rhetoric resonates with voters. But do these attitudes actually affect trade? This paper looks for the \"tariff equivalent\" effect of Trump's nationalist rhetoric. If voters are increasingly wary of free trade, we should see decreased demand for foreign goods. The observable implication should be declining imports. We test this prediction in the automotive industry-—a large, high-profile industry in which the \"foreign vs domestic\" distinction is clear. Using monthly imports data for each US state, we test whether Trump's campaign success affected automotive trade. Measuring Trump's political influence and electoral success several ways, we find no correlation between his \"buy American\" message and import flows. Nor is there are an interactive effect with traits of states' economies, including unemployment rates. Our evidence suggests that there's an important difference between sentiment and behavior. Voters claim to be wary of trade, and yet markets appear to be behaving normally. Our evidence is consistent with existing work that casts doubt on the impact of boycotts and nationalist rhetoric.","PeriodicalId":197385,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Import/Export Strategies (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128400886","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-10-24DOI: 10.16980/JITC.13.5.201710.1
Young-soo Lee, Youngin Seo
Despite much literature on the internationalization of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SMEs), extant studies examined traditional SMEs, internationalization patterns, and typologies of SMEs entering foreign markets. Therefore, the aim of this study is to examine the characteristics of SMEs and to investigate empirically the relationships among the CEO’s characteristics, organizational attributes, technology orientation and export performance. We collected data from 168 technology-intensive SMEs. Then, structural equation modeling was employed to analyze a proposed relationship using PLS-SEM. The findings suggest that firms with technology orientation are more capable of achieving higher export performance, which implies that higher export performance relies on the fundamental factors of global experience, international orientation, innovative culture and learning orientation, while simple and vague global experience, international orientation and learning orientation hardly attain high export performance, per se. This study contributes to a theoretical extension of antecedents concerning technology orientation and export performance, moving forward with empirical results. To the best of our knowledge, our model is the first attempt to examine how Korean SMEs enhance export performance with a mediating role of technology orientation.
{"title":"Export Performance of Korean Technology-Intensive SMEs: The Role of the CEO and Organizational Characteristics","authors":"Young-soo Lee, Youngin Seo","doi":"10.16980/JITC.13.5.201710.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.16980/JITC.13.5.201710.1","url":null,"abstract":"Despite much literature on the internationalization of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SMEs), extant studies examined traditional SMEs, internationalization patterns, and typologies of SMEs entering foreign markets. Therefore, the aim of this study is to examine the characteristics of SMEs and to investigate empirically the relationships among the CEO’s characteristics, organizational attributes, technology orientation and export performance. We collected data from 168 technology-intensive SMEs. Then, structural equation modeling was employed to analyze a proposed relationship using PLS-SEM. The findings suggest that firms with technology orientation are more capable of achieving higher export performance, which implies that higher export performance relies on the fundamental factors of global experience, international orientation, innovative culture and learning orientation, while simple and vague global experience, international orientation and learning orientation hardly attain high export performance, per se. This study contributes to a theoretical extension of antecedents concerning technology orientation and export performance, moving forward with empirical results. To the best of our knowledge, our model is the first attempt to examine how Korean SMEs enhance export performance with a mediating role of technology orientation.","PeriodicalId":197385,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Import/Export Strategies (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127358497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In the article is described an observation of new phenomenon, called by the author with working title “Cross Country Consumption” In the cases of food consumption and cross export it could be called “Food arbitrage”. In the case where same action, but with raw materials is involved, it could be called “Raw materials arbitrage”. This Cross Country Consumption is due to the different qualities of the same on first sight products. This is kind of local consumption due to Globalization and Internationalization of the Economy.
{"title":"CCC-Cross Country Consumption of Raw Materials Due to Their Quality – does the Statistics Encounters it?","authors":"Bancho Banov","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3057888","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3057888","url":null,"abstract":"In the article is described an observation of new phenomenon, called by the author with working title “Cross Country Consumption” In the cases of food consumption and cross export it could be called “Food arbitrage”. In the case where same action, but with raw materials is involved, it could be called “Raw materials arbitrage”. This Cross Country Consumption is due to the different qualities of the same on first sight products. This is kind of local consumption due to Globalization and Internationalization of the Economy.","PeriodicalId":197385,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Import/Export Strategies (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115134957","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We argue that existence of public good does not necessarily imply market failure, and illustrate this point in the context of international trade. An influential hypothesis states that export pioneers are too few relative to social optimum because the first exporter's action creates an informational public good for all subsequent exporters. The hypothesis has been invoked to justify certain types of government interventions. We note, however, that such market failure requires two inequalities to hold simultaneously: the discovery cost is neither too low nor too high. Neither has to hold in the data. We propose a structural estimation framework to evaluate the hypothesis, and estimate the parameters based on the customs data of Chinese electronics exports. Our key finding is that "missing pioneers" are a low-probability event for large countries, but can be a serious problem for small economies.
{"title":"Sizing Up Market Failures in Export Pioneering Activities","authors":"S. Wei, Ziru Wei, Jianhuan Xu","doi":"10.3386/W23893","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W23893","url":null,"abstract":"We argue that existence of public good does not necessarily imply market failure, and illustrate this point in the context of international trade. An influential hypothesis states that export pioneers are too few relative to social optimum because the first exporter's action creates an informational public good for all subsequent exporters. The hypothesis has been invoked to justify certain types of government interventions. We note, however, that such market failure requires two inequalities to hold simultaneously: the discovery cost is neither too low nor too high. Neither has to hold in the data. We propose a structural estimation framework to evaluate the hypothesis, and estimate the parameters based on the customs data of Chinese electronics exports. Our key finding is that \"missing pioneers\" are a low-probability event for large countries, but can be a serious problem for small economies.","PeriodicalId":197385,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Import/Export Strategies (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116301725","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This work contributes to the growing literature on international trade in services at firm level. Our data set provides information on exports and imports of services (excluding transportation and travel) in 2008–09 for almost 3,000 Italian industrial and services firms, divided by partner country and type of service. We report a set of stylised facts on services trade and analyse the choice between export and foreign direct investment in services at the firm level. We find that the export and import of services are highly concentrated in just a few firms. Firm‐level variation in trade is positively correlated with firm size and productivity. Country‐level variation is to a large extent explained by the standard gravity variables: distance strongly reduces trade in services in spite of their intangibility. Smaller and less productive firms choose to export rather than sell through foreign affiliates, although there is some heterogeneity among service types.
{"title":"Exporters and Importers of Services: Firm‐Level Evidence on Italy","authors":"S. Federico, Enrico Tosti","doi":"10.1111/twec.12462","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12462","url":null,"abstract":"This work contributes to the growing literature on international trade in services at firm level. Our data set provides information on exports and imports of services (excluding transportation and travel) in 2008–09 for almost 3,000 Italian industrial and services firms, divided by partner country and type of service. We report a set of stylised facts on services trade and analyse the choice between export and foreign direct investment in services at the firm level. We find that the export and import of services are highly concentrated in just a few firms. Firm‐level variation in trade is positively correlated with firm size and productivity. Country‐level variation is to a large extent explained by the standard gravity variables: distance strongly reduces trade in services in spite of their intangibility. Smaller and less productive firms choose to export rather than sell through foreign affiliates, although there is some heterogeneity among service types.","PeriodicalId":197385,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Import/Export Strategies (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124785654","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Considering Bangladesh’s successful industrialization, Bangladesh’s sharply deteriorating terms of trade (ToT) are a puzzle for the original Prebisch-Singer hypothesis. The Prebisch-Singer hypothesis suggested that countries exporting primary products will experience deteriorating ToT, while countries exporting manufacturing goods will experience ToT improvements. This paper provides an empirical review of Bangladesh’s ToT from 1980 to 2013. It reviews the theoretical literature explaining the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis and uses econometric analyses to determine some of the key factors for Bangladesh’s ToT deterioration. It shows that exchange rate devaluations and increases in export quantity have a negative impact on the ToT, while improvements in export quality have some positive impact on the ToT. In the case of Bangladesh, the problem however is that export quality has been decreasing, contributing to sharply falling ToT. The key policy implication is that export promotion policies need to be refined, focusing also on export quality, not only export quantity
{"title":"Free Falling Terms of Trade Despite Industrialization: The Case of Bangladesh","authors":"B. Gunter, V. Vargas","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3053657","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3053657","url":null,"abstract":"Considering Bangladesh’s successful industrialization, Bangladesh’s sharply deteriorating terms of trade (ToT) are a puzzle for the original Prebisch-Singer hypothesis. The Prebisch-Singer hypothesis suggested that countries exporting primary products will experience deteriorating ToT, while countries exporting manufacturing goods will experience ToT improvements. This paper provides an empirical review of Bangladesh’s ToT from 1980 to 2013. It reviews the theoretical literature explaining the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis and uses econometric analyses to determine some of the key factors for Bangladesh’s ToT deterioration. It shows that exchange rate devaluations and increases in export quantity have a negative impact on the ToT, while improvements in export quality have some positive impact on the ToT. In the case of Bangladesh, the problem however is that export quality has been decreasing, contributing to sharply falling ToT. The key policy implication is that export promotion policies need to be refined, focusing also on export quality, not only export quantity","PeriodicalId":197385,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Import/Export Strategies (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131290116","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The current study has been conducted in the year 2017 to explore the determinants of export diversification strategies of Bangladesh during 1976-2016 using Vector Error Correction Method (VECM). Annual time series data ranging from 1976 to 2016 on total exports, Foreign direct investment (FDI), national savings, industry value added in percentage of GDP, growth of GDP and official development assistance (US currency) has been taken from data storage of world bank. Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test has been employed to check the stationary properties of the raw data. Moreover, the Johenson Cointegration test has been employed to discover the long-term relationship among the data series the result showed that taken data have long ran relationship. At next step, VECM model was used to investigate the dynamic association between the variables and the result showed that there is long run causality running from the FDI, GDP Growth, savings, official development and industry value to Export and there is long run causality running from the export, FDI, GDP growth, saving and official development to industry value. Granger causality test has been run to check the short run relationship among the variable. The Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test ensures that our model is out of serial correlation problem. At last Jarque-Bera test also ensure that all model except FDI and GDP growth, the residual are normally distributed.
{"title":"Determinant of Export Diversification Strategy of Bangladesh: Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Approach","authors":"M. Wadud","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3114111","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3114111","url":null,"abstract":"The current study has been conducted in the year 2017 to explore the determinants of export diversification strategies of Bangladesh during 1976-2016 using Vector Error Correction Method (VECM). Annual time series data ranging from 1976 to 2016 on total exports, Foreign direct investment (FDI), national savings, industry value added in percentage of GDP, growth of GDP and official development assistance (US currency) has been taken from data storage of world bank. Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test has been employed to check the stationary properties of the raw data. Moreover, the Johenson Cointegration test has been employed to discover the long-term relationship among the data series the result showed that taken data have long ran relationship. At next step, VECM model was used to investigate the dynamic association between the variables and the result showed that there is long run causality running from the FDI, GDP Growth, savings, official development and industry value to Export and there is long run causality running from the export, FDI, GDP growth, saving and official development to industry value. Granger causality test has been run to check the short run relationship among the variable. The Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test ensures that our model is out of serial correlation problem. At last Jarque-Bera test also ensure that all model except FDI and GDP growth, the residual are normally distributed.","PeriodicalId":197385,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Import/Export Strategies (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128850570","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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