Using Mallick (2014) ceiling price results and the price gap approach, this paper derives all the formulae of interest in autarky, free trade, and after an import tariff for a small country. All derived formulae are in terms of three adjustment weights. It also offers comparisons of results of free trade with autarky and after tariff with free trade. Any formula can be applied independently.
{"title":"Uses of Price Gap and Adjustment Weights in Analyzing Autarky, Free Trade, and Import Tariff for a Small Country","authors":"Naresh C. Mallick","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2424432","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2424432","url":null,"abstract":"Using Mallick (2014) ceiling price results and the price gap approach, this paper derives all the formulae of interest in autarky, free trade, and after an import tariff for a small country. All derived formulae are in terms of three adjustment weights. It also offers comparisons of results of free trade with autarky and after tariff with free trade. Any formula can be applied independently.","PeriodicalId":197385,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Import/Export Strategies (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-04-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115693435","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
What kind of tariff reform is likely to raise welfare in situations where tariff revenue is important? Uncertainty about specification and risk from imprecise parameter estimates of any particular specification reduce the credibility of simulation estimates. A promising alternative is to develop rules which are robust with respect to such uncertainty. We present sufficient conditions for a class of linear rules that guarantee welfare-improving tariff reform. The rules span cones of welfare-improving tariff reforms consisting of convex combinations of (i) trade-weighted-average-tariff-preserving dispersion cuts; and (ii) uniform tariff cuts that preserve domestic relative prices among tariff-ridden goods.
{"title":"Revenue Tariff Reform","authors":"James E. Anderson, J. Neary","doi":"10.3386/W19752","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W19752","url":null,"abstract":"What kind of tariff reform is likely to raise welfare in situations where tariff revenue is important? Uncertainty about specification and risk from imprecise parameter estimates of any particular specification reduce the credibility of simulation estimates. A promising alternative is to develop rules which are robust with respect to such uncertainty. We present sufficient conditions for a class of linear rules that guarantee welfare-improving tariff reform. The rules span cones of welfare-improving tariff reforms consisting of convex combinations of (i) trade-weighted-average-tariff-preserving dispersion cuts; and (ii) uniform tariff cuts that preserve domestic relative prices among tariff-ridden goods.","PeriodicalId":197385,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Import/Export Strategies (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125635896","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Global structural imbalances in international trade have become a major topic in particular after the Great financial and economic crisis in 2008. China and Germany have been running major balance of trade in goods and services surpluses as well as balance of current account surpluses in the past decade. Contrary other countries including the US on top have run major current account deficits at the same time. Now, after some time of quarreling about the global recovery, this debate on – how to correct for those global imbalances – is back on the transatlantic agenda. This time Germany is the major villain, because last year Germany's current account surplus reached a 7 percent to GDP level. However, this is already rebalancing and the future new German government is planning policy measures like a major increase in public infrastructure investments, introducing a minimum wage for the whole economy, increasing public spending in education and training, which would stimulate domestic demand and growth in Germany in the coming year. The paper looks at the empirical facts of the past couple of years related to the rebalancing of international imbalances already under way. It confronts these findings with the harsh critique of Paul Krugman published in the New York Times, who blames German politics as the major source for the current global imbalances. Looking at the facts much of the blame Krugman addresses on misguided German politics cannot be confirmed to be in line with the available statistics and most recent forecasts.
特别是2008年国际金融经济大危机之后，全球国际贸易结构性失衡成为一个重要话题。近10年来，中德两国货物和服务贸易均保持较大顺差，经常项目也保持较大顺差。相反，包括美国在内的其他国家同时出现了巨额经常账户赤字。如今，在围绕全球经济复苏争论了一段时间之后，这场关于如何纠正全球失衡的辩论又回到了大西洋两岸的议程上。这一次，德国成了罪魁祸首，因为去年德国的经常账户盈余达到了GDP的7%。然而，这已经在重新平衡，未来的新一届德国政府正在规划政策措施，比如大幅增加公共基础设施投资，为整个经济引入最低工资标准，增加教育和培训方面的公共支出，这些措施将在未来一年刺激德国的国内需求和增长。本文考察了过去几年与已在进行的国际失衡再平衡相关的经验事实。它将这些发现与保罗•克鲁格曼(Paul Krugman)在《纽约时报》(New York Times)上发表的严厉批评进行了对比。克鲁格曼指责德国政治是当前全球失衡的主要根源。从事实来看，克鲁格曼对德国政治误入歧途的指责，很多都不能证实与现有的统计数据和最新的预测相符。
{"title":"The German Current Account Surplus and Krugman’s and Wolff’s Critique","authors":"G. Erber","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2350759","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2350759","url":null,"abstract":"Global structural imbalances in international trade have become a major topic in particular after the Great financial and economic crisis in 2008. China and Germany have been running major balance of trade in goods and services surpluses as well as balance of current account surpluses in the past decade. Contrary other countries including the US on top have run major current account deficits at the same time. Now, after some time of quarreling about the global recovery, this debate on – how to correct for those global imbalances – is back on the transatlantic agenda. This time Germany is the major villain, because last year Germany's current account surplus reached a 7 percent to GDP level. However, this is already rebalancing and the future new German government is planning policy measures like a major increase in public infrastructure investments, introducing a minimum wage for the whole economy, increasing public spending in education and training, which would stimulate domestic demand and growth in Germany in the coming year. The paper looks at the empirical facts of the past couple of years related to the rebalancing of international imbalances already under way. It confronts these findings with the harsh critique of Paul Krugman published in the New York Times, who blames German politics as the major source for the current global imbalances. Looking at the facts much of the blame Krugman addresses on misguided German politics cannot be confirmed to be in line with the available statistics and most recent forecasts.","PeriodicalId":197385,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Import/Export Strategies (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132783613","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Log export bans (LEBs) are a popular development tool utilised by developing nations with sizable endowments of timber; however, the actual impact of these policies is debatable. British Columbia has a developed forestry sector and still maintains a LEB. This trade restriction continually creates conflicts with Canada's international trade partners, including the United States. This paper examines the efficiency implications of a hypothetical removal of roundwood export restrictions in British Columbia using roundwood price and quantity data from 1995 to 2008. A time‐series econometric approach is utilised to determine supply and demand elasticities for British Columbia's roundwood. Empirical results from a vector error correction model suggest that a removal of export restrictions will generate an overall increase of approximately $347.91 million US dollars per year to British Columbia's forest economy.
{"title":"Are There Efficiency Gains from the Removal of Natural Resource Export Restrictions? Evidence from British Columbia","authors":"J. Fooks, Steven J. Dundas, T. Awokuse","doi":"10.1111/twec.12041","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12041","url":null,"abstract":"Log export bans (LEBs) are a popular development tool utilised by developing nations with sizable endowments of timber; however, the actual impact of these policies is debatable. British Columbia has a developed forestry sector and still maintains a LEB. This trade restriction continually creates conflicts with Canada's international trade partners, including the United States. This paper examines the efficiency implications of a hypothetical removal of roundwood export restrictions in British Columbia using roundwood price and quantity data from 1995 to 2008. A time‐series econometric approach is utilised to determine supply and demand elasticities for British Columbia's roundwood. Empirical results from a vector error correction model suggest that a removal of export restrictions will generate an overall increase of approximately $347.91 million US dollars per year to British Columbia's forest economy.","PeriodicalId":197385,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Import/Export Strategies (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125328870","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper unveils a serious mistake committed by Kemp (1967). His positive tariff is actually an export subsidy. The corrected Kemp model implies that the whole optimal tariff theory must have been working in the wrong direction.
{"title":"Kemp's Notorious Optimal Tariff Theory","authors":"Hak Choi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2273388","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2273388","url":null,"abstract":"This paper unveils a serious mistake committed by Kemp (1967). His positive tariff is actually an export subsidy. The corrected Kemp model implies that the whole optimal tariff theory must have been working in the wrong direction.","PeriodicalId":197385,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Import/Export Strategies (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128494378","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Devaluation of currency has been stipulated and utilized increasingly as a stabilization device in developing countries, as part of International Monetary Fund (IMF) mainstream adjustment programs. The policy measure of currency devaluation has aimed to make export products more competitive and permutes demand towards domestically produced goods eventually boosting the overall output of the country. The objective of this work is to add to the existing empirical literature on the effect of currency devaluation on the value of some export items. It examines the relationship between devaluation of Ethiopian Birr and the value of coffee export during the period 1992/93-2011/12. During these span of time, the National Bank of Ethiopia took several policy measures to devalue birr. Empirical studies made both on developing and developed countries indicated mixed results about the effect of currency devaluation on the value of trade balance in general and on the value of export items in particular. This study uses simple linear regression analysis to observe the association between the value of coffee export of Ethiopia and the devaluation of Birr pertaining to the period 1992/93-2011/12. The statistical results point out that there is strong positive correlation between currency valuation and value of coffee export during the study period.
{"title":"Does Devaluation Matter? Evidence from Ethiopian Coffee Export","authors":"A. Ali","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2357069","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2357069","url":null,"abstract":"Devaluation of currency has been stipulated and utilized increasingly as a stabilization device in developing countries, as part of International Monetary Fund (IMF) mainstream adjustment programs. The policy measure of currency devaluation has aimed to make export products more competitive and permutes demand towards domestically produced goods eventually boosting the overall output of the country. The objective of this work is to add to the existing empirical literature on the effect of currency devaluation on the value of some export items. It examines the relationship between devaluation of Ethiopian Birr and the value of coffee export during the period 1992/93-2011/12. During these span of time, the National Bank of Ethiopia took several policy measures to devalue birr. Empirical studies made both on developing and developed countries indicated mixed results about the effect of currency devaluation on the value of trade balance in general and on the value of export items in particular. This study uses simple linear regression analysis to observe the association between the value of coffee export of Ethiopia and the devaluation of Birr pertaining to the period 1992/93-2011/12. The statistical results point out that there is strong positive correlation between currency valuation and value of coffee export during the study period.","PeriodicalId":197385,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Import/Export Strategies (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132406549","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines the microeconomics behind the dramatic export boom experienced by Turkey during the 2000s. Using disaggregated customs data covering the universe of export transactions for Turkey during the period 2002-2011, it characterizes firm-level dynamics in the export sector and decomposes export growth at the aggregate, sector, and destination market levels to identify the role of firm turnover, destination turnover, and product turnover. The paper shows that in the short-run, aggregate export growth is dominated by growth in continuous exporters, and for these, growth is dominated by exports to their continued destinations and of their continued products. However, the observed high degree of churning across firms, destinations, and products accounts in the long run for a substantial part of Turkey's export growth. The patterns of micro-dynamics of export growth are verified across sectors and across groups of destination markets with some exceptions regarding exports to new emerging markets where net entry by Turkish-based exporters plays a more critical role for long-run growth.
{"title":"Microdynamics of Turkey's Export Boom in the 2000s","authors":"Tolga Cebeci, A. Fernandes","doi":"10.1111/twec.12183","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12183","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the microeconomics behind the dramatic export boom experienced by Turkey during the 2000s. Using disaggregated customs data covering the universe of export transactions for Turkey during the period 2002-2011, it characterizes firm-level dynamics in the export sector and decomposes export growth at the aggregate, sector, and destination market levels to identify the role of firm turnover, destination turnover, and product turnover. The paper shows that in the short-run, aggregate export growth is dominated by growth in continuous exporters, and for these, growth is dominated by exports to their continued destinations and of their continued products. However, the observed high degree of churning across firms, destinations, and products accounts in the long run for a substantial part of Turkey's export growth. The patterns of micro-dynamics of export growth are verified across sectors and across groups of destination markets with some exceptions regarding exports to new emerging markets where net entry by Turkish-based exporters plays a more critical role for long-run growth.","PeriodicalId":197385,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Import/Export Strategies (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126916350","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The paper studies the role visa restrictions play in determining export flows between Russian firms and their partners and explores the mechanism of this relationship. The specification of empirical model is derived from a heterogeneous firms’ model of trade. The existing visa restrictions are used as proxies for the costs the exporters incur while dealing with customers abroad. The results indicate that visas have a negative market access effect. Controlling for the choice of destination, visas have a significant negative effect on the value of relationship-specific exports as well. These results are consistent with informational and contractual nature of visa costs.
{"title":"Export Costs of Visa Restrictions: Evidence from Russia","authors":"Natalia Kapelko, N. Volchkova","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2243136","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2243136","url":null,"abstract":"The paper studies the role visa restrictions play in determining export flows between Russian firms and their partners and explores the mechanism of this relationship. The specification of empirical model is derived from a heterogeneous firms’ model of trade. The existing visa restrictions are used as proxies for the costs the exporters incur while dealing with customers abroad. The results indicate that visas have a negative market access effect. Controlling for the choice of destination, visas have a significant negative effect on the value of relationship-specific exports as well. These results are consistent with informational and contractual nature of visa costs.","PeriodicalId":197385,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Import/Export Strategies (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123431702","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2013-01-01DOI: 10.5771/0935-9915-2017-1-121
Camilla Jensen
Infant industries have come to be associated with behind the frontier technologies in developing countries. This paper takes a fresh look at the infant industry problem and in the more contemporary perspective of developed-emerging economy competition in lead markets such as for example the global solar panel industry. Different policy scenarios are considered under two different trading regimes. First one where all firms learn symmetrically in cost. Then one where learning paths and preference about sustainable consumption partly could be conforming with prevailing institutions in each country. The paper demonstrates that NTBs or standards can be welfare improving in ways that ordinary instruments such as tariffs and subsidies cannot.
{"title":"International Trade in Infant Industries: A Dynamic Analysis of Different Trade Policy Instruments and Their Implications for Sustainable Consumption","authors":"Camilla Jensen","doi":"10.5771/0935-9915-2017-1-121","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5771/0935-9915-2017-1-121","url":null,"abstract":"Infant industries have come to be associated with behind the frontier technologies in developing countries. This paper takes a fresh look at the infant industry problem and in the more contemporary perspective of developed-emerging economy competition in lead markets such as for example the global solar panel industry. Different policy scenarios are considered under two different trading regimes. First one where all firms learn symmetrically in cost. Then one where learning paths and preference about sustainable consumption partly could be conforming with prevailing institutions in each country. The paper demonstrates that NTBs or standards can be welfare improving in ways that ordinary instruments such as tariffs and subsidies cannot.","PeriodicalId":197385,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Import/Export Strategies (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131365908","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We develop a general equilibrium model of international trade with heterogeneous firms that accounts for productivity spillovers transmitted by foreign exporters. Everything else equal, stronger spillovers increase welfare. We embed the model framework into a trade policy scenario where countries strategically set inter‐country variable trade costs for the trading partner. In the strategic Nash‐equilibrium policy, governments trade‐off welfare gains from protectionism and those that are due to spillovers from foreign exporters. The equilibrium degree of protectionism is decreasing in the strength of the spillover. Policy coordination induces welfare gains but these gains can be hump‐shaped in the spillover strength.
{"title":"Spillovers from Foreign Exporters","authors":"Anna Bohnstedt","doi":"10.1111/roie.12203","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12203","url":null,"abstract":"We develop a general equilibrium model of international trade with heterogeneous firms that accounts for productivity spillovers transmitted by foreign exporters. Everything else equal, stronger spillovers increase welfare. We embed the model framework into a trade policy scenario where countries strategically set inter‐country variable trade costs for the trading partner. In the strategic Nash‐equilibrium policy, governments trade‐off welfare gains from protectionism and those that are due to spillovers from foreign exporters. The equilibrium degree of protectionism is decreasing in the strength of the spillover. Policy coordination induces welfare gains but these gains can be hump‐shaped in the spillover strength.","PeriodicalId":197385,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Import/Export Strategies (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123154414","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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