Background
Acute pancreatitis (AP) is heterogeneous, and single biomarkers lack sufficient accuracy in predicting progression to severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). The C-reactive protein-albumin-lymphocyte (CALLY) index, a novel immune-nutritional marker, has been shown to have prognostic value in various diseases, but its utility in AP is unclear. We evaluated the ability of CALLY to predict SAP compared with that of common inflammatory markers.
Methods
This retrospective cohort study included 5016 AP patients admitted between January 2020 and December 2024 at the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University. Stepwise logistic regression estimated the associations between CALLY and SAP, with weighted restricted cubic spline (RCS) analyses assessed nonlinearity. Predictive performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curves.
Results
Among 5016 AP patients (67.1 % male; median age 50.1 ± 16.2 years), 19 % developed SAP. Lower admission CALLY correlated significantly with increased SAP risk; each standard deviation increases in CALLY reduced SAP risk by 51 % (adjusted OR = 0.49; 95 % CI: 0.32–0.76). RCS analysis revealed a nonlinear inverse association between ln CALLY and the risk of SAP (P < 0.001). CALLY (AUC = 0.764) outperformed the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) (AUC = 0.657), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) (AUC = 0.556), neutrophil-to-albumin ratio (NAR) (AUC = 0.699), systemic immune-inflammatory index (SII) (AUC = 0.629), and bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) (AUC = 0.747). Predictive performance was stronger in younger (<65 years) and hypertriglyceridemic AP patients.
Conclusion
Lower admission CALLY is a predictor of higher SAP risk, outperforming traditional inflammatory markers. It could serve as an early indicator for identifying high-risk patients.
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