Short–term transient events in the solar atmosphere, namely solar flares and coronal mass ejections, can have a direct influence on near–Earth space and human activities. Recent spacecraft observations have revealed the complex, fine–scale, dynamic nature of the Sun's atmosphere. In the light of the recent observational advances we consider the potential for solar event prediction, both in terms of event–onset prediction at the Sun and the prediction of event arrival at the Earth. We stress that this effort requires a significant programme of research into the underpinning science. It is noted that several new and upcoming developments in space missions as well as in on–going studies with existing spacecraft indicate that significant advances should be expected in our ability to make useful predictions of solar activity as part of a space–weather effort.
{"title":"Short–term solar effects","authors":"R. Harrison","doi":"10.1098/rsta.2002.1110","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2002.1110","url":null,"abstract":"Short–term transient events in the solar atmosphere, namely solar flares and coronal mass ejections, can have a direct influence on near–Earth space and human activities. Recent spacecraft observations have revealed the complex, fine–scale, dynamic nature of the Sun's atmosphere. In the light of the recent observational advances we consider the potential for solar event prediction, both in terms of event–onset prediction at the Sun and the prediction of event arrival at the Earth. We stress that this effort requires a significant programme of research into the underpinning science. It is noted that several new and upcoming developments in space missions as well as in on–going studies with existing spacecraft indicate that significant advances should be expected in our ability to make useful predictions of solar activity as part of a space–weather effort.","PeriodicalId":20023,"journal":{"name":"Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A, Mathematical and Physical Sciences","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2003-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85027128","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The absolute value of total solar irradiance is not known to better than ca.0.3% but measurements from satellite instruments over the past two solar cycles have shown that it varies by ca.0.1% on this time-scale. Over longer periods its value has been reconstructed using proxy measures of solar activity, and these suggest that during the Maunder minimum in solar activity of the late 17th century it was 3−4 W m−2 lower than at present. Observational data suggest that the Sun has influenced temperatures on decadal, centennial and millennial time-scales, but radiative forcing considerations and the results of energy-balance models and general circulation models suggest that the warming during the latter part of the 20th century cannot be ascribed entirely to solar effects. However, chemical and dynamical processes in the middle atmosphere may act to amplify the solar impact. An analysis of zonal mean temperature data shows that solar effects may be differentiated from those associated with other factors such as volcanic eruptions and the El Niño Southern Oscillation.
太阳总辐照度的绝对值不超过0.3%，但卫星仪器在过去两个太阳周期的测量表明，它在这个时间尺度上变化了0.1%。在更长的时期内，利用太阳活动的替代测量方法重建了它的值，这些值表明，在17世纪后期太阳活动的蒙德极小期，它比现在低3 - 4 W m−2。观测资料表明，太阳在年代际、百年和千年时间尺度上影响了温度，但辐射强迫因素以及能量平衡模式和环流模式的结果表明，20世纪后半叶的变暖不能完全归因于太阳效应。然而，中层大气中的化学和动力学过程可能会放大太阳的影响。对纬向平均温度数据的分析表明，太阳的影响可能与火山爆发和厄尔Niño南方涛动等其他因素有关。
{"title":"The effects of solar variability on the Earth's climate","authors":"J. Haigh","doi":"10.1098/rsta.2002.1111","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2002.1111","url":null,"abstract":"The absolute value of total solar irradiance is not known to better than ca.0.3% but measurements from satellite instruments over the past two solar cycles have shown that it varies by ca.0.1% on this time-scale. Over longer periods its value has been reconstructed using proxy measures of solar activity, and these suggest that during the Maunder minimum in solar activity of the late 17th century it was 3−4 W m−2 lower than at present. Observational data suggest that the Sun has influenced temperatures on decadal, centennial and millennial time-scales, but radiative forcing considerations and the results of energy-balance models and general circulation models suggest that the warming during the latter part of the 20th century cannot be ascribed entirely to solar effects. However, chemical and dynamical processes in the middle atmosphere may act to amplify the solar impact. An analysis of zonal mean temperature data shows that solar effects may be differentiated from those associated with other factors such as volcanic eruptions and the El Niño Southern Oscillation.","PeriodicalId":20023,"journal":{"name":"Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A, Mathematical and Physical Sciences","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2003-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86041135","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The objectives of the conference are outlined, followed by reviews of some highlights of recent developments in space engineering, space sciences and their practical benefits, which are not only becoming more evident but also of considerable commercial value. This paper concludes with a discussion of the future challenges of near–Earth space science and technology, especially the arrangements for operational monitoring and exploiting the results from a UK and European perspective.
{"title":"Developments in space engineering and space science","authors":"J. Hunt, A. Coates","doi":"10.1098/rsta.2002.1124","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2002.1124","url":null,"abstract":"The objectives of the conference are outlined, followed by reviews of some highlights of recent developments in space engineering, space sciences and their practical benefits, which are not only becoming more evident but also of considerable commercial value. This paper concludes with a discussion of the future challenges of near–Earth space science and technology, especially the arrangements for operational monitoring and exploiting the results from a UK and European perspective.","PeriodicalId":20023,"journal":{"name":"Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A, Mathematical and Physical Sciences","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2003-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88054957","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Over the past 20 years the University of Surrey has gained significant experience in the use of commercial off–the–shelf (COTS) technologies operating in low–Earth orbit through the design, manufacture and operation of its ‘UoSAT’ satellite series. The ionizing radiation environment is of particular concern when using COTS technologies in space, and thus particular emphasis has been given to monitoring the high–energy proton and heavy–ion cosmic–ray environment inside the spacecraft, and to observing and analysing its effects. This paper reports on the principal results of this work and discusses how we apply COTS technology to space.
{"title":"Observations of radiation in the space radiation environment and its effect on commercial off-the-shelf electronics in low-Earth orbit","authors":"C. Underwood","doi":"10.1098/rsta.2002.1122","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2002.1122","url":null,"abstract":"Over the past 20 years the University of Surrey has gained significant experience in the use of commercial off–the–shelf (COTS) technologies operating in low–Earth orbit through the design, manufacture and operation of its ‘UoSAT’ satellite series. The ionizing radiation environment is of particular concern when using COTS technologies in space, and thus particular emphasis has been given to monitoring the high–energy proton and heavy–ion cosmic–ray environment inside the spacecraft, and to observing and analysing its effects. This paper reports on the principal results of this work and discusses how we apply COTS technology to space.","PeriodicalId":20023,"journal":{"name":"Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A, Mathematical and Physical Sciences","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2003-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84723747","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
As part of the Observations and Modelling of Eddy–scale Geostrophic and Ageostrophic circulation project, a cruise to the Almeria–Oran front in the Eastern Alboràn (Western Mediterranean) was carried out from November 1996 to January 1997. During the cruise, a fine–scale survey, designed to be oriented along European Remote–sensing Satellite ground tracks, was repeated several times. Hydrographic and current profile data were collected continuously using an undulating, towed conductivity–temperature–depth sensor and an acoustic Doppler current profiler. The in situ data have been processed to give profiles of the absolute surface current at several locations across the front. Estimates of the absolute current profile have been made from repeated tracks in order to understand some of the sources of error. These ‘one–time’ calculations of absolute profiles have been merged with several years worth of altimeter data to monitor the flow across the Almeria–Oran front. At times the front appears to move to the south, apparently when the eastern Alboràn gyre collapses, as has been observed in previous studies.
{"title":"Monitoring the eastern Alboràn Sea using combined altimetry and in situ data","authors":"H. Snaith, S. Alderson, J. Allen, T. Guymer","doi":"10.1098/rsta.2002.1109","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2002.1109","url":null,"abstract":"As part of the Observations and Modelling of Eddy–scale Geostrophic and Ageostrophic circulation project, a cruise to the Almeria–Oran front in the Eastern Alboràn (Western Mediterranean) was carried out from November 1996 to January 1997. During the cruise, a fine–scale survey, designed to be oriented along European Remote–sensing Satellite ground tracks, was repeated several times. Hydrographic and current profile data were collected continuously using an undulating, towed conductivity–temperature–depth sensor and an acoustic Doppler current profiler. The in situ data have been processed to give profiles of the absolute surface current at several locations across the front. Estimates of the absolute current profile have been made from repeated tracks in order to understand some of the sources of error. These ‘one–time’ calculations of absolute profiles have been merged with several years worth of altimeter data to monitor the flow across the Almeria–Oran front. At times the front appears to move to the south, apparently when the eastern Alboràn gyre collapses, as has been observed in previous studies.","PeriodicalId":20023,"journal":{"name":"Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A, Mathematical and Physical Sciences","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2003-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81573149","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Christopher R. Wilford, R. Moffett, J. M. Rees, R. Heelis
The coupled thermosphere–ionosphere–plasmasphere (CTIP) model is a three–dimensional model that solves equations of continuity, momentum and energy balance to calculate ion and electron concentrations, temperatures and field–aligned velocities. The University of Sheffield version of the CTIP model has been modified in order to include a third atomic ion, He+. Data from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) are used to compare and validate the results from the modified CTIP model. The modified CTIP model is shown to reproduce He+ distributions as seen in the data.
{"title":"A modified CTIP model and comparisons with DMSP satellite data","authors":"Christopher R. Wilford, R. Moffett, J. M. Rees, R. Heelis","doi":"10.1098/rsta.2002.1116","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2002.1116","url":null,"abstract":"The coupled thermosphere–ionosphere–plasmasphere (CTIP) model is a three–dimensional model that solves equations of continuity, momentum and energy balance to calculate ion and electron concentrations, temperatures and field–aligned velocities. The University of Sheffield version of the CTIP model has been modified in order to include a third atomic ion, He+. Data from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) are used to compare and validate the results from the modified CTIP model. The modified CTIP model is shown to reproduce He+ distributions as seen in the data.","PeriodicalId":20023,"journal":{"name":"Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A, Mathematical and Physical Sciences","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2003-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78396972","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Loss of life, injury and huge economic losses are incurred annually due to irregular and insufficient sea–state information. Figures indicate that, each year, the marine insurance industry pays out over $2 billion in claims for weather–related accidents, while bad weather causes one ship of over 500 t to sink somewhere on the globe every week. Accurate knowledge of local ocean conditions is therefore crucial in providing forecasts and early warnings of severe weather conditions. Space–borne systems, particularly satellites, provide the ideal platform for global monitoring of sea conditions via altimetric measurements. As an alternative to active altimetry, another concept is passively receiving reflected signals from the Global Positioning System (GPS) and other Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) satellites. This concept was first developed by Dr Manuel Martin–Neira at ESA–ESTEC. ESA's Passive Reflectometry and Interferometry System makes use of GPS/GNSS signals from satellites and their reflection off the ocean surface to derive oceanic properties such as surface height, significant wave height, wind speed and wind direction. Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd are proposing a nanosatellite demonstration mission to ascertain the feasibility of the GPS ocean reflectometry concept.
{"title":"GPS/GNSS reflectometry nanosatellite demonstration mission","authors":"M. Unwin, J. Douglas Liddle, S. Jason","doi":"10.1098/rsta.2002.1105","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2002.1105","url":null,"abstract":"Loss of life, injury and huge economic losses are incurred annually due to irregular and insufficient sea–state information. Figures indicate that, each year, the marine insurance industry pays out over $2 billion in claims for weather–related accidents, while bad weather causes one ship of over 500 t to sink somewhere on the globe every week. Accurate knowledge of local ocean conditions is therefore crucial in providing forecasts and early warnings of severe weather conditions. Space–borne systems, particularly satellites, provide the ideal platform for global monitoring of sea conditions via altimetric measurements. As an alternative to active altimetry, another concept is passively receiving reflected signals from the Global Positioning System (GPS) and other Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) satellites. This concept was first developed by Dr Manuel Martin–Neira at ESA–ESTEC. ESA's Passive Reflectometry and Interferometry System makes use of GPS/GNSS signals from satellites and their reflection off the ocean surface to derive oceanic properties such as surface height, significant wave height, wind speed and wind direction. Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd are proposing a nanosatellite demonstration mission to ascertain the feasibility of the GPS ocean reflectometry concept.","PeriodicalId":20023,"journal":{"name":"Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A, Mathematical and Physical Sciences","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2003-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91378122","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Visions of the future by young scientists","authors":"J. Thompson","doi":"10.1098/rsta.2003.1311","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2003.1311","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":20023,"journal":{"name":"Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A, Mathematical and Physical Sciences","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2003-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86520979","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
As a prestigious generalist journal with a high scholarly reputation and a long influential history, the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society (Series A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences), is an ideal vehicle for charting research frontiers across the physical sciences. It is the world's longest running scientific journal, and all issues since its foundation in 1665 are archived electronically by JSTOR in the USA (see http://www.jstor.org/) and are accessible through most university libraries. This archive gives facsimile access, and search facilities, to the works of many famous scientists. In this brief editorial I give first an introduction to the special Christmas issues by young scientists, followed by an overview of the fields covered.
{"title":"Research frontiers in the physical sciences","authors":"J. Thompson","doi":"10.1098/rsta.2002.1099","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2002.1099","url":null,"abstract":"As a prestigious generalist journal with a high scholarly reputation and a long influential history, the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society (Series A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences), is an ideal vehicle for charting research frontiers across the physical sciences. It is the world's longest running scientific journal, and all issues since its foundation in 1665 are archived electronically by JSTOR in the USA (see http://www.jstor.org/) and are accessible through most university libraries. This archive gives facsimile access, and search facilities, to the works of many famous scientists. In this brief editorial I give first an introduction to the special Christmas issues by young scientists, followed by an overview of the fields covered.","PeriodicalId":20023,"journal":{"name":"Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A, Mathematical and Physical Sciences","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77735883","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Correction for ‘nderstanding and managing leakage in forest-based greenhouse-gas-mitigation projects’ by R. Schwarze, J. O. Niles and J. Olander (Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. A 360, 1685–1703. (doi: 10.1098/rsta.2002.1040)). The following acknowledgement was omitted from the above article.
R. Schwarze、J. O. Niles和J. Olander (Phil)对“理解和管理基于森林的温室气体减排项目中的泄漏”的更正。反式。r . Soc。Lond。1685-1703年。(doi: 10.1098 / rsta.2002.1040))。上述文章省略了以下确认。
{"title":"Correction for Schwarze et al., Understanding and managing leakage in forest-based greenhouse-gas-mitigation projects","authors":"R. Schwarze, J. Niles, J. Olander","doi":"10.1098/RSTA.2002.2000","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1098/RSTA.2002.2000","url":null,"abstract":"Correction for ‘nderstanding and managing leakage in forest-based greenhouse-gas-mitigation projects’ by R. Schwarze, J. O. Niles and J. Olander (Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. A 360, 1685–1703. (doi: 10.1098/rsta.2002.1040)). The following acknowledgement was omitted from the above article.","PeriodicalId":20023,"journal":{"name":"Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A, Mathematical and Physical Sciences","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78028145","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：