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Corporate Financial Distress: A Study of the European Distressed and Defaulted Debt Market 企业财务困境:欧洲不良债务和违约债务市场研究
Pub Date : 2009-01-08 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.1324512
A. Farhadieh
This research paper sets out an analysis of the European distressed and defaulted debt market and presents a sector specific study on financial distress of retail companies. The paper is divided into two sections, section I provides an analysis of the distressed and defaulted debt market canvassing the leveraged finance market, trends and innovations and sets out an analysis of investment opportunities going forward. Section II presents an analysis of financial distress in the retail sector, which is expected to provide significant distressed debt investment opportunities, aiming to identify the key leading indicators of potential distress of sector companies and applying these measures to identify sector companies that could experience financial distress in the next 12 months. The paper concludes by outlining an analysis of Woolworths Group plc as a potential distressed investment opportunity.
本研究论文对欧洲不良债务和违约债务市场进行了分析,并对零售公司的财务困境进行了具体的研究。本文分为两个部分,第一部分对不良债务和违约债务市场进行了分析,分析了杠杆融资市场、趋势和创新,并对未来的投资机会进行了分析。第二部分对零售行业的财务困境进行了分析,预计将提供重要的不良债务投资机会,旨在确定行业公司潜在困境的关键领先指标,并应用这些措施来确定未来12个月可能经历财务困境的行业公司。本文最后概述了伍尔沃斯集团plc作为一个潜在的不良投资机会的分析。
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引用次数: 1
Consideration Concerning Finanacial Statement in the Context Globalization 全球化背景下关于财务报表的思考
Pub Date : 2009-01-08 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.1324954
I. Bostan
The financial statements represent an accounting instrument of great importance within the process of management of the economic entities, being necessary for the substantiation of the decisions regarding the allocation, the use and the recovery of funds, the organization of the control on the accomplishment of the decisions made as well as for the settlement of certain rights and obligations, of certain responsibilities and co-interests born from the activity of administration and development of the patrimony. The financial statements have been drawn up with the beginning of accounting under the form of the balance sheet, ulterior their structure has been developed due to the information needs that grew in time. Due to their possibilities of information, the financial statements represent a very important instrument in the process of substantiating the decisions that the management organs make for the administration of the current activity and especially for the perspective activity, as well as for the realization of the guidance and control regarding the manner of application of the economic and financial regulations. The importance of the financial statements can be synthetically expressed in the following important aspects: it represents a means of knowledge, control and analysis of the activity of the economic entities by the Council of Administration, the general assembly of the shareholders or of the associates, by the fiscal authorities; the data they contain and which refer to the presentation of the effective indicators regarding the current and precedent financial year, they ensure the analysis of the their evolution from one year to another; the information that they offer stand at the basis of numerous decisions regarding the current activity and especially the perspective one; it represents a mobilizing factor the improvement of the content and organization of the accounting evidence, which should present the necessary data, exact and in time, for the elaboration of this accounting evidence accordingly and in due time.
财务报表在经济实体的管理过程中是一种非常重要的会计工具,对于证实有关资金的分配、使用和回收的决定,组织对所作决定的实施的控制以及解决某些权利和义务是必要的。从遗产的管理和发展活动中产生的某些责任和共同利益。财务报表是以资产负债表的形式在会计核算开始时编制的,其结构是由于信息需求的增长而发展起来的。由于其信息的可能性,财务报表在证实管理机关对当前活动,特别是对未来活动的管理以及实现对经济和金融法规应用方式的指导和控制的决策过程中,是一个非常重要的工具。财务报表的重要性可以综合地表达在以下几个重要方面:它代表了行政理事会、股东大会或联营公司、财政当局对经济实体活动的了解、控制和分析手段;它们所包含的数据是指有关当前和以前财政年度的有效指标的介绍,它们确保分析其从一年到另一年的演变;它们提供的信息是关于当前活动,特别是前景活动的许多决定的基础;会计证据的内容和组织的改进是一个推动因素,它应该为会计证据的相应和适当的阐述提供必要的、准确的、及时的数据。
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引用次数: 0
Foreign Entry into Underwriting Services: Evidence from Japan's 'Big Bang' Deregulation 外资进入承销服务业:来自日本放松管制“大爆炸”的证据
Pub Date : 2009-01-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1331160
Jose A. Lopez, M. Spiegel
We examined the effect of foreign entry into bond market underwriting activity using issue‐level data from the Japanese “Samurai” and euro–yen bond markets. We found that the fees charged by Japanese underwriters were higher on average than those of foreign underwriters, but the difference could be explained by conditioning on issue characteristics. Our results also suggest that bond issuers sorted properly across underwriters, as switching across underwriter nationalities would be expected to result in higher fees. However, the savings enjoyed by firms issuing with foreign underwriters were modest and statistically insignificant, while those of firms issuing with Japanese underwriters were substantial and statistically significant. This result suggests that Japanese underwriters priced their services aggressively over the sample period, perhaps in an effort to retain or gain market share. This conjecture is supported by a matching exercise that examined the liberalization of foreign underwriter access to the Samurai bond market, using euro–yen bond issues as a control. Foreign entry led to a statistically and economically significant decrease of 16 basis points on average in underwriting fees in the Samurai bond market. Overall, our results suggest that the international market for Japanese bond underwriting services was partially segmented by nationality as issuers appear to have preferred habitats, but that liberalization increased overall market competition.
我们使用来自日本“武士”和欧元-日元债券市场的发行级数据来检验外国进入债券市场承销活动的影响。我们发现,日本承销商收取的费用平均高于外国承销商,但这种差异可以用发行特征的条件来解释。我们的研究结果还表明,债券发行人在承销商之间进行了适当的分类,因为在承销商国籍之间切换预计会导致更高的费用。然而,由外国承销商发行的公司所享受的节余是适度的,在统计上是微不足道的,而由日本承销商发行的公司所享受的节余是可观的,在统计上是显著的。这一结果表明,日本承销商在样本期内对其服务定价过高,可能是为了保持或获得市场份额。这一猜想得到了一项匹配研究的支持,该研究以欧元-日元债券发行为对照,考察了外国承销商进入武士债券市场的自由化程度。外资进入导致武士债券市场的承销费用平均下降了16个基点,这在统计上和经济上都是显著的。总体而言,我们的研究结果表明,日本债券承销服务的国际市场部分按国籍划分,因为发行人似乎有偏好的栖息地,但这种自由化增加了整体市场竞争。
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引用次数: 10
The Influence of Investors' Jobs on Portfolios: Is there an Own Industry Bias? 投资者工作对投资组合的影响:是否存在自身的行业偏见?
Pub Date : 2009-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1099007
Ralf G. Gerhardt
According to financial theory, the assets in rational investors' portfolios should have low or negative correlation to each other to minimize overall risk. The major component of most investors' wealth is the discounted value of (non-tradeable) future labor income and therefore an important background risk which should be adequately hedged by financial portfolio risk. We test this hypothesis empirically by using a unique data set of 30,000 private investors whose profession and detailed portfolio composition we know. We find that investors hold significantly higher ratios of equity in their own industry than peers from other industries - an own industry bias. So investors tend not only to ignore but to increase background risk in their overall wealth by holding biased financial portfolios. Rational and financially sophisticated investors hedge their labor income risk better. In contrast, a short event study shows that unsophisticated investors cannot expect to reduce their own industry bias by taking financial advice.
根据金融理论,理性投资者投资组合中的资产之间应该是低相关或负相关的,以使整体风险最小化。大多数投资者财富的主要组成部分是(不可交易的)未来劳动收入的贴现价值,因此是一个重要的背景风险,应该通过金融投资组合风险来充分对冲。我们通过使用我们所知道的3万名私人投资者的专业和详细的投资组合组成的独特数据集,对这一假设进行了实证检验。我们发现,投资者在本行业持有的股本比例明显高于其他行业的同行——这是一种自身的行业偏见。因此,投资者不仅倾向于忽视,而且通过持有有偏见的金融投资组合,增加了他们整体财富的背景风险。理性和金融经验丰富的投资者可以更好地对冲劳动收入风险。相比之下,一项短期事件研究表明,不成熟的投资者不能指望通过接受金融建议来减少自己的行业偏见。
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引用次数: 5
The Impact of Alternative Imputation Methods on the Measurement of Income and Wealth: Evidence from the Spanish Survey of Household Finances 不同的归算方法对收入和财富计量的影响:来自西班牙家庭财务调查的证据
Pub Date : 2008-12-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1321827
Cristina Barceló
The goal of this paper is to emphasise the importance of the way of handling missing data and its impact on the outcome of empirical studies. Using the 2002 wave of the Spanish Survey of Household Finances (EFF), I study the performance of alternative methods: listwise deletion, non-stochastic, multiple and single imputation based on linear-regression models, and hot-deck procedures. Using descriptive statistics of the marginal and conditional distributions of income and wealth and estimating mean and quantile regressions, listwise deletion brings imprecise and biased estimates, non-stochastic imputation underestimates variance and dispersion and hot deck fails to capture the potential relationships among survey variables.
本文的目的是强调处理缺失数据的方式及其对实证研究结果的影响的重要性。利用2002年西班牙家庭财务调查(EFF)的数据,我研究了替代方法的性能:列表删除,非随机,基于线性回归模型的多重和单一imputation,以及热甲板程序。使用收入和财富的边际分布和条件分布的描述性统计以及估计均值和分位数回归,列表删除带来不精确和有偏差的估计,非随机imputation低估了方差和离散度,hot deck无法捕捉调查变量之间的潜在关系。
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引用次数: 62
Continuous-Time Evolutionary Stock and Bond Markets with Time-Dependent Strategies 具有时间依赖策略的连续时间演化股票和债券市场
Pub Date : 2008-12-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1085513
Zhaojun Yang, Feng Shi
This paper develops a general continuous-time evolutionary finance model with time-dependent strategies. It is shown that the continuous model, which is a limit of a general discrete model, is well-defined and if there exists one completely diversified strategy in the market, then there is no sudden bankruptcy. After that a deterministic evolutionary bond market is studied in detail. It is certified that a bond market is evolutionary stable, which is equal to arbitrage-free if and only if the total returns defined in this paper across all the assets are the same, or each bond is evaluated by an improper integral in which the integrand is a discounted value of the dividend payoff with the discount rate being market consumption parameter. Last an approach to compute the benchmark interest rate is provided.
本文建立了一个具有时间依赖策略的一般连续时间演化金融模型。结果表明,连续模型是一般离散模型的极限,它是定义良好的,如果市场上存在一种完全多样化的策略,则不存在突然破产。然后对确定性演化债券市场进行了详细的研究。证明了债券市场是进化稳定的,当且仅当本文定义的所有资产的总收益相同,或者每只债券用一个被积函数为股息支付的折现值,折现率为市场消费参数的反常积分来评价,则债券市场等于无套利。最后给出了一种计算基准利率的方法。
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引用次数: 0
Modeling the Evolution of Customers' Service Portfolios 顾客服务组合演化的建模
Pub Date : 2008-12-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.985639
David A. Schweidel, Eric T. Bradlow, P. Fader
Understanding how customers' service portfolios evolve over the course of their relationship can provide multi-service firms, such as telecommunication and financial service providers, with useful guidance for managerial issues such as customer valuation and targeting. Complicating matters, however, is the fact that ownership of individual services may be related to each other. Additionally, customers may be heterogeneous in terms of the portfolios they choose and the sequence of adoption/retention decisions they make over time. In this research, we propose an integrated multivariate choice and duration model that nests extant single-product models to capture co-purchasing behavior and underlying choice dynamics. Using a hidden Markov model, we uncover latent relationship states through which customers may pass during their relationship with the firm, allowing us to understand how subscription patterns evolve over a customer's tenure. The proposed model provides a framework within which multi-service providers can assess the value of their customers. We also demonstrate how the proposed modeling framework leverages information from the full sequence of subscription decisions to identify those customers who are most at risk for terminating their relationship both in the next time period and at the time of their next portfolio change.
了解客户的服务组合在其关系过程中是如何演变的,可以为电信和金融服务提供商等多服务公司提供有用的管理问题指导,如客户评估和目标定位。然而,使问题复杂化的是,单个服务的所有权可能彼此相关。此外,客户在他们选择的投资组合和他们在一段时间内做出的采用/保留决策的顺序方面可能是异构的。在这项研究中,我们提出了一个集成的多元选择和持续时间模型,该模型嵌套了现有的单一产品模型,以捕捉共同购买行为和潜在的选择动态。使用隐马尔可夫模型,我们发现了客户在与公司的关系中可能经过的潜在关系状态,使我们能够了解订阅模式在客户任期内是如何演变的。提出的模型提供了一个框架,在该框架内,多服务提供商可以评估其客户的价值。我们还演示了所建议的建模框架如何利用来自订阅决策的完整序列的信息来识别那些在下一个时间段和下一次投资组合变更时最有可能终止其关系的客户。
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引用次数: 5
Credit Risk Modeling with Misreporting and Incomplete Information 错误报告和不完全信息下的信用风险建模
Pub Date : 2008-12-19 DOI: 10.1142/S0219024909005129
A. Capponi, Jakša Cvitanić
We propose a structural model for the valuation of defaultable securities of a firm which models the effect of deliberate misreporting done by insiders in the firm and unobserved by others. We derive exact formulas for equity and bond prices and approximate expressions for the conditional default probability, recovery rate, and credit spread under the proposed credit risk framework. We propose a novel estimation approach to structural model estimation which accounts for noisy observed asset values. We apply the proposed method to calibrate a simple version of our model to the case of Parmalat and show that the model is able to recover a certain amount of misreporting during the years of accounting irregularities.
我们提出了一个公司违约证券估值的结构模型,该模型模拟了公司内部人员故意误报和其他人未观察到的影响。在提出的信用风险框架下,我们推导出股票和债券价格的精确公式,以及条件违约概率、回收率和信用利差的近似表达式。我们提出了一种新的结构模型估计方法,该方法考虑了观测资产值的噪声。我们将提出的方法应用于对Parmalat案例的模型的简单版本进行校准,并表明该模型能够在会计违规期间恢复一定数量的误报。
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引用次数: 16
Culture as an Individual Process - Deficits of National Cultural Theories in Management of Cultural Diversity 文化作为个体过程——民族文化理论在文化多样性管理中的缺陷
Pub Date : 2008-12-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1317821
R. Lenz
Most prevalent theories in cross cultural management reduce the variability of individual relations to one single category, the national culture. Based on the assumption that the national cultural values determine individual behavior the individual’s behavior in different national cultures becomes predictable. This over simplistic model pretends to provide “easy” answers for a complex world. In this article a new approach to culture is developed where culture is seen as a permanent individual process. The focus is the individual in its complex correlation to the society. This approach leads to a holistic view of a human being as it takes beside the social relations the individual's personality and it’s reflexivity into account.
跨文化管理中最流行的理论将个体关系的可变性归结为一个单一的范畴,即民族文化。基于民族文化价值观决定个体行为的假设,个体在不同民族文化中的行为是可以预测的。这种过于简单化的模型假装为复杂的世界提供了“简单”的答案。本文提出了一种新的文化研究方法,将文化视为一种永久的个体过程。重点是个体与社会的复杂关系。这种方法导致了对人的整体看法,因为它除了考虑社会关系之外,还考虑了个人的个性和反身性。
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引用次数: 1
The Case for Fully Integrated Models of Economic Capital 全面整合经济资本模型的案例
Pub Date : 2008-12-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1317251
A. McNeil, Axel Kirchner, G. Kretzschmar
Economic capital models are potentially powerful tools for enterprise risk management (ERM), and for the supervisory review process (Pillar 2) of the Basel II and Solvency II regulatory capital frameworks. We argue that, to fulfill this potential, economic capital models need to be fully integrated and to go beyond the more modular approaches that dominate Pillar 1 methodology. In a modular approach capital is determined at business-unit or risk category level (e.g. market, credit and liquidity risk separately) and aggregated ex post by simple summation or correlation-adjusted summation; in a fully integrated approach aggregation occurs implicitly by relating all risks to a common set of fundamental risk drivers. We explain how calibrated economic scenario generation lies at the heart of a fully integrated approach to modelling the risks on the asset side of a firm's balance sheet and discuss how stochastic scenario generation gives the ideal framework for exploring the diversification benefits that different units or asset classes bring to an enterprise. We explain how this approach allows us to understand the sources of tail risk and gives us a platform for integrated stress testing, sensitivity analysis, and the allocation of capital to business units for risk-adjusted performance comparisons.
经济资本模型是企业风险管理(ERM)以及巴塞尔协议II和偿付能力II监管资本框架的监督审查过程(支柱2)的潜在强大工具。我们认为,为了实现这一潜力,经济资本模型需要完全整合,并超越主导第一支柱方法的更模块化的方法。在模块化方法中,资本在业务单元或风险类别层面(例如,市场、信贷和流动性风险分别)确定,并通过简单合计或相关性调整合计事后汇总;在完全集成的方法中,通过将所有风险与一组共同的基本风险驱动因素联系起来,隐含地发生聚合。我们解释了校准的经济情景生成如何成为对公司资产负债表资产侧风险建模的完全集成方法的核心,并讨论了随机情景生成如何为探索不同单位或资产类别给企业带来的多样化利益提供理想框架。我们解释了这种方法如何使我们理解尾部风险的来源,并为我们提供了一个集成压力测试、敏感性分析和向业务单位分配资本的平台,以进行风险调整后的绩效比较。
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引用次数: 6
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