Pub Date : 2022-08-30eCollection Date: 2022-08-01DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1004070
Tashrik Ahmed, Timothy Roberton, Petra Vergeer, Peter M Hansen, Michael A Peters, Anthony Adofo Ofosu, Charles Mwansambo, Charles Nzelu, Chea Sanford Wesseh, Francis Smart, Jean Patrick Alfred, Mamoutou Diabate, Martina Baye, Mohamed Lamine Yansane, Naod Wendrad, Nur Ali Mohamud, Paul Mbaka, Sylvain Yuma, Youssoupha Ndiaye, Husnia Sadat, Helal Uddin, Helen Kiarie, Raharison Tsihory, George Mwinnyaa, Jean de Dieu Rusatira, Pablo Amor Fernandez, Pierre Muhoza, Prativa Baral, Salomé Drouard, Tawab Hashemi, Jed Friedman, Gil Shapira
<p><strong>Background: </strong>The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had wide-reaching direct and indirect impacts on population health. In low- and middle-income countries, these impacts can halt progress toward reducing maternal and child mortality. This study estimates changes in health services utilization during the pandemic and the associated consequences for maternal, neonatal, and child mortality.</p><p><strong>Methods and findings: </strong>Data on service utilization from January 2018 to June 2021 were extracted from health management information systems of 18 low- and lower-middle-income countries (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Cameroon, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea, Haiti, Kenya, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, and Uganda). An interrupted time-series design was used to estimate the percent change in the volumes of outpatient consultations and maternal and child health services delivered during the pandemic compared to projected volumes based on prepandemic trends. The Lives Saved Tool mathematical model was used to project the impact of the service utilization disruptions on child and maternal mortality. In addition, the estimated monthly disruptions were also correlated to the monthly number of COVID-19 deaths officially reported, time since the start of the pandemic, and relative severity of mobility restrictions. Across the 18 countries, we estimate an average decline in OPD volume of 13.1% and average declines of 2.6% to 4.6% for maternal and child services. We projected that decreases in essential health service utilization between March 2020 and June 2021 were associated with 113,962 excess deaths (110,686 children under 5, and 3,276 mothers), representing 3.6% and 1.5% increases in child and maternal mortality, respectively. This excess mortality is associated with the decline in utilization of the essential health services included in the analysis, but the utilization shortfalls vary substantially between countries, health services, and over time. The largest disruptions, associated with 27.5% of the excess deaths, occurred during the second quarter of 2020, regardless of whether countries reported the highest rate of COVID-19-related mortality during the same months. There is a significant relationship between the magnitude of service disruptions and the stringency of mobility restrictions. The study is limited by the extent to which administrative data, which varies in quality across countries, can accurately capture the changes in service coverage in the population.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Declines in healthcare utilization during the COVID-19 pandemic amplified the pandemic's harmful impacts on health outcomes and threaten to reverse gains in reducing maternal and child mortality. As efforts and resource allocation toward prevention and treatment of COVID-19 continue, essential health services must be maintained, particula
{"title":"Healthcare utilization and maternal and child mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in 18 low- and middle-income countries: An interrupted time-series analysis with mathematical modeling of administrative data.","authors":"Tashrik Ahmed, Timothy Roberton, Petra Vergeer, Peter M Hansen, Michael A Peters, Anthony Adofo Ofosu, Charles Mwansambo, Charles Nzelu, Chea Sanford Wesseh, Francis Smart, Jean Patrick Alfred, Mamoutou Diabate, Martina Baye, Mohamed Lamine Yansane, Naod Wendrad, Nur Ali Mohamud, Paul Mbaka, Sylvain Yuma, Youssoupha Ndiaye, Husnia Sadat, Helal Uddin, Helen Kiarie, Raharison Tsihory, George Mwinnyaa, Jean de Dieu Rusatira, Pablo Amor Fernandez, Pierre Muhoza, Prativa Baral, Salomé Drouard, Tawab Hashemi, Jed Friedman, Gil Shapira","doi":"10.1371/journal.pmed.1004070","DOIUrl":"10.1371/journal.pmed.1004070","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had wide-reaching direct and indirect impacts on population health. In low- and middle-income countries, these impacts can halt progress toward reducing maternal and child mortality. This study estimates changes in health services utilization during the pandemic and the associated consequences for maternal, neonatal, and child mortality.</p><p><strong>Methods and findings: </strong>Data on service utilization from January 2018 to June 2021 were extracted from health management information systems of 18 low- and lower-middle-income countries (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Cameroon, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea, Haiti, Kenya, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, and Uganda). An interrupted time-series design was used to estimate the percent change in the volumes of outpatient consultations and maternal and child health services delivered during the pandemic compared to projected volumes based on prepandemic trends. The Lives Saved Tool mathematical model was used to project the impact of the service utilization disruptions on child and maternal mortality. In addition, the estimated monthly disruptions were also correlated to the monthly number of COVID-19 deaths officially reported, time since the start of the pandemic, and relative severity of mobility restrictions. Across the 18 countries, we estimate an average decline in OPD volume of 13.1% and average declines of 2.6% to 4.6% for maternal and child services. We projected that decreases in essential health service utilization between March 2020 and June 2021 were associated with 113,962 excess deaths (110,686 children under 5, and 3,276 mothers), representing 3.6% and 1.5% increases in child and maternal mortality, respectively. This excess mortality is associated with the decline in utilization of the essential health services included in the analysis, but the utilization shortfalls vary substantially between countries, health services, and over time. The largest disruptions, associated with 27.5% of the excess deaths, occurred during the second quarter of 2020, regardless of whether countries reported the highest rate of COVID-19-related mortality during the same months. There is a significant relationship between the magnitude of service disruptions and the stringency of mobility restrictions. The study is limited by the extent to which administrative data, which varies in quality across countries, can accurately capture the changes in service coverage in the population.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Declines in healthcare utilization during the COVID-19 pandemic amplified the pandemic's harmful impacts on health outcomes and threaten to reverse gains in reducing maternal and child mortality. As efforts and resource allocation toward prevention and treatment of COVID-19 continue, essential health services must be maintained, particula","PeriodicalId":20368,"journal":{"name":"PLoS Medicine","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":10.5,"publicationDate":"2022-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9426906/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"33447490","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-06-17eCollection Date: 2022-06-01DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1004027
Patricia L Mabry, Nicolaas P Pronk, Christopher I Amos, John S Witte, Patrick T Wedlock, Sarah M Bartsch, Bruce Y Lee
Patricia Mabry and coauthors discuss application of systems approaches in cancer research.
Patricia Mabry和合著者讨论了系统方法在癌症研究中的应用。
{"title":"Cancer systems epidemiology: Overcoming misconceptions and integrating systems approaches into cancer research.","authors":"Patricia L Mabry, Nicolaas P Pronk, Christopher I Amos, John S Witte, Patrick T Wedlock, Sarah M Bartsch, Bruce Y Lee","doi":"10.1371/journal.pmed.1004027","DOIUrl":"10.1371/journal.pmed.1004027","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Patricia Mabry and coauthors discuss application of systems approaches in cancer research.</p>","PeriodicalId":20368,"journal":{"name":"PLoS Medicine","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":15.8,"publicationDate":"2022-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9205504/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41375103","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-06-07eCollection Date: 2022-06-01DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1004003
Alyaa M Ajabnoor, Salwa S Zghebi, Rosa Parisi, Darren M Ashcroft, Martin K Rutter, Tim Doran, Matthew J Carr, Mamas A Mamas, Evangelos Kontopantelis
Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is an important risk factor for ischaemic stroke, and AF incidence is expected to increase. Guidelines recommend using oral anticoagulants (OACs) to prevent the development of stroke. However, studies have reported the frequent underuse of OACs in AF patients. The objective of this study is to describe nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) incidence in England and assess the clinical and socioeconomic factors associated with the underprescribing of OACs.
Methods and findings: We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study using the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) database to identify patients with NVAF aged ≥18 years and registered in English general practices between 2009 and 2019. Annual incidence rate of NVAF by age, deprivation quintile, and region was estimated. OAC prescribing status was explored for patients at risk for stroke and classified into the following: OAC, aspirin only, or no treatment. We used a multivariable multinomial logistic regression model to estimate relative risk ratios (RRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the factors associated with OAC or aspirin-only prescribing compared to no treatment in patients with NVAF who are recommended to take OAC. The multivariable regression was adjusted for age, sex, comorbidities, socioeconomic status, baseline treatment, frailty, bleeding risk factors, and takes into account clustering by general practice. Between 2009 and 2019, 12,517,191 patients met the criteria for being at risk of developing NVAF. After a median follow-up of 4.6 years, 192,265 patients had an incident NVAF contributing a total of 647,876 person-years (PYR) of follow-up. The overall age-adjusted incidence of NVAF per 10,000 PYR increased from 20.8 (95% CI: 20.4; 21.1) in 2009 to 25.5 (25.1; 25.9) in 2019. Higher incidence rates were observed for older ages and males. Among NVAF patients eligible for anticoagulation, OAC prescribing rose from 59.8% (95% CI: 59.0; 60.6) in 2009 to 83.2% (95% CI: 83.0; 83.4) in 2019. Several conditions were associated with lower risk of OAC prescribing: dementia [RRR 0.52 (0.47; 0.59)], liver disease 0.58 (0.50; 0.67), malignancy 0.74 (0.72; 0.77), and history of falls 0.82 (0.78; 0.85). Compared to white ethnicity, patients from black and other ethnic minorities were less likely to receive OAC; 0.78 (0.65; 0.94) and 0.76 (0.64; 0.91), respectively. Patients living in the most deprived areas were less likely to receive OAC 0.85 (0.79; 0.91) than patients living in the least deprived areas. Practices located in the East of England were associated with higher risk of prescribing aspirin only over no treatment than practices in London (RRR 1.22; 95% CI 1.02 to 1.45). The main limitation of this study is that these findings depends on accurate recording of conditions by health professionals and the inevitable residual confounding due to lack of data on certain factors that cou
{"title":"Incidence of nonvalvular atrial fibrillation and oral anticoagulant prescribing in England, 2009 to 2019: A cohort study.","authors":"Alyaa M Ajabnoor, Salwa S Zghebi, Rosa Parisi, Darren M Ashcroft, Martin K Rutter, Tim Doran, Matthew J Carr, Mamas A Mamas, Evangelos Kontopantelis","doi":"10.1371/journal.pmed.1004003","DOIUrl":"10.1371/journal.pmed.1004003","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Atrial fibrillation (AF) is an important risk factor for ischaemic stroke, and AF incidence is expected to increase. Guidelines recommend using oral anticoagulants (OACs) to prevent the development of stroke. However, studies have reported the frequent underuse of OACs in AF patients. The objective of this study is to describe nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) incidence in England and assess the clinical and socioeconomic factors associated with the underprescribing of OACs.</p><p><strong>Methods and findings: </strong>We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study using the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) database to identify patients with NVAF aged ≥18 years and registered in English general practices between 2009 and 2019. Annual incidence rate of NVAF by age, deprivation quintile, and region was estimated. OAC prescribing status was explored for patients at risk for stroke and classified into the following: OAC, aspirin only, or no treatment. We used a multivariable multinomial logistic regression model to estimate relative risk ratios (RRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the factors associated with OAC or aspirin-only prescribing compared to no treatment in patients with NVAF who are recommended to take OAC. The multivariable regression was adjusted for age, sex, comorbidities, socioeconomic status, baseline treatment, frailty, bleeding risk factors, and takes into account clustering by general practice. Between 2009 and 2019, 12,517,191 patients met the criteria for being at risk of developing NVAF. After a median follow-up of 4.6 years, 192,265 patients had an incident NVAF contributing a total of 647,876 person-years (PYR) of follow-up. The overall age-adjusted incidence of NVAF per 10,000 PYR increased from 20.8 (95% CI: 20.4; 21.1) in 2009 to 25.5 (25.1; 25.9) in 2019. Higher incidence rates were observed for older ages and males. Among NVAF patients eligible for anticoagulation, OAC prescribing rose from 59.8% (95% CI: 59.0; 60.6) in 2009 to 83.2% (95% CI: 83.0; 83.4) in 2019. Several conditions were associated with lower risk of OAC prescribing: dementia [RRR 0.52 (0.47; 0.59)], liver disease 0.58 (0.50; 0.67), malignancy 0.74 (0.72; 0.77), and history of falls 0.82 (0.78; 0.85). Compared to white ethnicity, patients from black and other ethnic minorities were less likely to receive OAC; 0.78 (0.65; 0.94) and 0.76 (0.64; 0.91), respectively. Patients living in the most deprived areas were less likely to receive OAC 0.85 (0.79; 0.91) than patients living in the least deprived areas. Practices located in the East of England were associated with higher risk of prescribing aspirin only over no treatment than practices in London (RRR 1.22; 95% CI 1.02 to 1.45). The main limitation of this study is that these findings depends on accurate recording of conditions by health professionals and the inevitable residual confounding due to lack of data on certain factors that cou","PeriodicalId":20368,"journal":{"name":"PLoS Medicine","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":10.5,"publicationDate":"2022-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9173622/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41373346","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-06-01DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1004026
T. Jafar, N. Tan, R. M. Shirore, J. C. Allen, E. Finkelstein, Siew Wai Hwang, A. Koong, P. Moey, G. Kang, Chris Wan Teng Goh, Reena Chandhini Subramanian, Anandan Gerard Thiagarajah, C. Ramakrishnan, C. W. Lim, Jianying Liu
Background Despite availability of clinical practice guidelines for hypertension management, blood pressure (BP) control remains sub-optimal (<30%) even in high-income countries. This study aims to assess the effectiveness of a potentially scalable multicomponent intervention integrated into primary care system compared to usual care on BP control. Methods and findings A cluster-randomized controlled trial was conducted in 8 government clinics in Singapore. The trial enrolled 916 patients aged ≥40 years with uncontrolled hypertension (systolic BP (SBP) ≥140 mmHg or diastolic BP (DBP) ≥90 mmHg). Multicomponent intervention consisted of physician training in risk-based treatment of hypertension, subsidized losartan-HCTZ single-pill combination (SPC) medications, nurse training in motivational conversations (MCs), and telephone follow-ups. Usual care (controls) comprised of routine care in the clinics, no MC or telephone follow-ups, and no subsidy on SPCs. The primary outcome was mean SBP at 24 months’ post-baseline. Four clinics (447 patients) were randomized to intervention and 4 (469) to usual care. Patient enrolment commenced in January 2017, and follow-up was during December 2018 to September 2020. Analysis used intention-to-treat principles. The primary outcome was SBP at 24 months. BP at baseline, 12 and 24 months was modeled at the patient level in a likelihood-based, linear mixed model repeated measures analysis with treatment group, follow-up, treatment group × follow-up interaction as fixed effects, and random cluster (clinic) effects. A total of 766 (83.6%) patients completed 2-year follow-up. A total of 63 (14.1%) and 87 (18.6%) patients in intervention and in usual care, respectively, were lost to follow-up. At 24 months, the adjusted mean SBP was significantly lower in the intervention group compared to usual care (−3.3 mmHg; 95% CI: −6.34, −0.32; p = 0.03). The intervention led to higher BP control (odds ratio 1.51; 95% CI: 1.10, 2.09; p = 0.01), lower odds of high (>20%) 10-year cardiovascular risk score (OR 0.67; 95% CI: 0.47, 0.97; p = 0.03), and lower mean log albuminuria (−0.22; 95% CI: −0.41, −0.02; p = 0.03). Mean DBP, mortality rates, and serious adverse events including hospitalizations were not different between groups. The main limitation was no masking in the trial. Conclusions A multicomponent intervention consisting of physicians trained in risk-based treatment, subsidized SPC medications, nurse-delivered motivational conversation, and telephone follow-ups improved BP control and lowered cardiovascular risk. Wide-scale implementation of a multicomponent intervention such as the one in our trial is likely to reduce hypertension-related morbidity and mortality globally. Trial registration Trial Registration: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT02972619.
{"title":"Integration of a multicomponent intervention for hypertension into primary healthcare services in Singapore—A cluster randomized controlled trial","authors":"T. Jafar, N. Tan, R. M. Shirore, J. C. Allen, E. Finkelstein, Siew Wai Hwang, A. Koong, P. Moey, G. Kang, Chris Wan Teng Goh, Reena Chandhini Subramanian, Anandan Gerard Thiagarajah, C. Ramakrishnan, C. W. Lim, Jianying Liu","doi":"10.1371/journal.pmed.1004026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1004026","url":null,"abstract":"Background Despite availability of clinical practice guidelines for hypertension management, blood pressure (BP) control remains sub-optimal (<30%) even in high-income countries. This study aims to assess the effectiveness of a potentially scalable multicomponent intervention integrated into primary care system compared to usual care on BP control. Methods and findings A cluster-randomized controlled trial was conducted in 8 government clinics in Singapore. The trial enrolled 916 patients aged ≥40 years with uncontrolled hypertension (systolic BP (SBP) ≥140 mmHg or diastolic BP (DBP) ≥90 mmHg). Multicomponent intervention consisted of physician training in risk-based treatment of hypertension, subsidized losartan-HCTZ single-pill combination (SPC) medications, nurse training in motivational conversations (MCs), and telephone follow-ups. Usual care (controls) comprised of routine care in the clinics, no MC or telephone follow-ups, and no subsidy on SPCs. The primary outcome was mean SBP at 24 months’ post-baseline. Four clinics (447 patients) were randomized to intervention and 4 (469) to usual care. Patient enrolment commenced in January 2017, and follow-up was during December 2018 to September 2020. Analysis used intention-to-treat principles. The primary outcome was SBP at 24 months. BP at baseline, 12 and 24 months was modeled at the patient level in a likelihood-based, linear mixed model repeated measures analysis with treatment group, follow-up, treatment group × follow-up interaction as fixed effects, and random cluster (clinic) effects. A total of 766 (83.6%) patients completed 2-year follow-up. A total of 63 (14.1%) and 87 (18.6%) patients in intervention and in usual care, respectively, were lost to follow-up. At 24 months, the adjusted mean SBP was significantly lower in the intervention group compared to usual care (−3.3 mmHg; 95% CI: −6.34, −0.32; p = 0.03). The intervention led to higher BP control (odds ratio 1.51; 95% CI: 1.10, 2.09; p = 0.01), lower odds of high (>20%) 10-year cardiovascular risk score (OR 0.67; 95% CI: 0.47, 0.97; p = 0.03), and lower mean log albuminuria (−0.22; 95% CI: −0.41, −0.02; p = 0.03). Mean DBP, mortality rates, and serious adverse events including hospitalizations were not different between groups. The main limitation was no masking in the trial. Conclusions A multicomponent intervention consisting of physicians trained in risk-based treatment, subsidized SPC medications, nurse-delivered motivational conversation, and telephone follow-ups improved BP control and lowered cardiovascular risk. Wide-scale implementation of a multicomponent intervention such as the one in our trial is likely to reduce hypertension-related morbidity and mortality globally. Trial registration Trial Registration: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT02972619.","PeriodicalId":20368,"journal":{"name":"PLoS Medicine","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":15.8,"publicationDate":"2022-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42622518","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-06-01DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1004001
M. Foraster, M. Esnaola, Mónica López-Vicente, I. Rivas, M. Álvarez-Pedrerol, C. Persavento, N. Sebastián-Gallés, Jesús Pujol, P. Dadvand, J. Sunyer
Background Road traffic noise is a prevalent and known health hazard. However, little is known yet about its effect on children’s cognition. We aimed to study the association between exposure to road traffic noise and the development of working memory and attention in primary school children, considering school-outdoor and school-indoor annual average noise levels and noise fluctuation characteristics, as well as home-outdoor noise exposure. Methods and findings We followed up a population-based sample of 2,680 children aged 7 to 10 years from 38 schools in Barcelona (Catalonia, Spain) between January 2012 to March 2013. Children underwent computerised cognitive tests 4 times (n = 10,112), for working memory (2-back task, detectability), complex working memory (3-back task, detectability), and inattentiveness (Attention Network Task, hit reaction time standard error, in milliseconds). Road traffic noise was measured indoors and outdoors at schools, at the start of the school year, using standard protocols to obtain A-weighted equivalent sound pressure levels, i.e., annual average levels scaled to human hearing, for the daytime (daytime LAeq, in dB). We also derived fluctuation indicators out of the measurements (noise intermittency ratio, %; and number of noise events) and obtained individual estimated indoor noise levels (LAeq) correcting for classroom orientation and classroom change between years. Home-outdoor noise exposure at home (Lden, i.e., EU indicator for the 24-hour annual average levels) was estimated using Barcelona’s noise map for year 2012, according to the European Noise Directive (2002). We used linear mixed models to evaluate the association between exposure to noise and cognitive development adjusting for age, sex, maternal education, socioeconomical vulnerability index at home, indoor or outdoor traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) for corresponding school models or outdoor nitrogen dioxide (NO2) for home models. Child and school were included as nested random effects. The median age (percentile 25, percentile 75) of children in visit 1 was 8.5 (7.8; 9.3) years, 49.9% were girls, and 50% of the schools were public. School-outdoor exposure to road traffic noise was associated with a slower development in working memory (2-back and 3-back) and greater inattentiveness over 1 year in children, both for the average noise level (e.g., ‒4.83 points [95% CI: ‒7.21, ‒2.45], p-value < 0.001, in 2-back detectability per 5 dB in street levels) and noise fluctuation (e.g., ‒4.38 [‒7.08, ‒1.67], p-value = 0.002, per 50 noise events at street level). Individual exposure to the road traffic average noise level in classrooms was only associated with inattentiveness (2.49 ms [0, 4.81], p-value = 0.050, per 5 dB), whereas indoor noise fluctuation was consistently associated with all outcomes. Home-outdoor noise exposure was not associated with the outcomes. Study limitations include a potential lack of generalizability (58% of mothers with unive
{"title":"Exposure to road traffic noise and cognitive development in schoolchildren in Barcelona, Spain: A population-based cohort study","authors":"M. Foraster, M. Esnaola, Mónica López-Vicente, I. Rivas, M. Álvarez-Pedrerol, C. Persavento, N. Sebastián-Gallés, Jesús Pujol, P. Dadvand, J. Sunyer","doi":"10.1371/journal.pmed.1004001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1004001","url":null,"abstract":"Background Road traffic noise is a prevalent and known health hazard. However, little is known yet about its effect on children’s cognition. We aimed to study the association between exposure to road traffic noise and the development of working memory and attention in primary school children, considering school-outdoor and school-indoor annual average noise levels and noise fluctuation characteristics, as well as home-outdoor noise exposure. Methods and findings We followed up a population-based sample of 2,680 children aged 7 to 10 years from 38 schools in Barcelona (Catalonia, Spain) between January 2012 to March 2013. Children underwent computerised cognitive tests 4 times (n = 10,112), for working memory (2-back task, detectability), complex working memory (3-back task, detectability), and inattentiveness (Attention Network Task, hit reaction time standard error, in milliseconds). Road traffic noise was measured indoors and outdoors at schools, at the start of the school year, using standard protocols to obtain A-weighted equivalent sound pressure levels, i.e., annual average levels scaled to human hearing, for the daytime (daytime LAeq, in dB). We also derived fluctuation indicators out of the measurements (noise intermittency ratio, %; and number of noise events) and obtained individual estimated indoor noise levels (LAeq) correcting for classroom orientation and classroom change between years. Home-outdoor noise exposure at home (Lden, i.e., EU indicator for the 24-hour annual average levels) was estimated using Barcelona’s noise map for year 2012, according to the European Noise Directive (2002). We used linear mixed models to evaluate the association between exposure to noise and cognitive development adjusting for age, sex, maternal education, socioeconomical vulnerability index at home, indoor or outdoor traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) for corresponding school models or outdoor nitrogen dioxide (NO2) for home models. Child and school were included as nested random effects. The median age (percentile 25, percentile 75) of children in visit 1 was 8.5 (7.8; 9.3) years, 49.9% were girls, and 50% of the schools were public. School-outdoor exposure to road traffic noise was associated with a slower development in working memory (2-back and 3-back) and greater inattentiveness over 1 year in children, both for the average noise level (e.g., ‒4.83 points [95% CI: ‒7.21, ‒2.45], p-value < 0.001, in 2-back detectability per 5 dB in street levels) and noise fluctuation (e.g., ‒4.38 [‒7.08, ‒1.67], p-value = 0.002, per 50 noise events at street level). Individual exposure to the road traffic average noise level in classrooms was only associated with inattentiveness (2.49 ms [0, 4.81], p-value = 0.050, per 5 dB), whereas indoor noise fluctuation was consistently associated with all outcomes. Home-outdoor noise exposure was not associated with the outcomes. Study limitations include a potential lack of generalizability (58% of mothers with unive","PeriodicalId":20368,"journal":{"name":"PLoS Medicine","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":15.8,"publicationDate":"2022-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46197390","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-06-01DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1004021
A. L. Spangmose, Niels Skipper, S. Knorr, Tina Wullum Gundersen, R. B. Jensen, P. Damm, E. L. Mortensen, A. Pinborg, J. Svensson, T. Clausen
[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003977.].
[这更正了文章DOI:10.1371/journal.pmed.1003977.]。
{"title":"Correction: School performance in Danish children exposed to maternal type 1 diabetes in utero: A nationwide retrospective cohort study","authors":"A. L. Spangmose, Niels Skipper, S. Knorr, Tina Wullum Gundersen, R. B. Jensen, P. Damm, E. L. Mortensen, A. Pinborg, J. Svensson, T. Clausen","doi":"10.1371/journal.pmed.1004021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1004021","url":null,"abstract":"[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003977.].","PeriodicalId":20368,"journal":{"name":"PLoS Medicine","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":15.8,"publicationDate":"2022-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48095102","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-06-01DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1004023
O. Plana-Ripoll, J. Dreier, N. Momen, Anders Prior, N. Weye, P. Mortensen, C. Pedersen, K. Iburg, M. Christensen, T. Laursen, E. Agerbo, M. Pedersen, J. Brandt, L. Frohn, C. Geels, J. Christensen, J. Mcgrath
Background The provision of different types of mortality metrics (e.g., mortality rate ratios [MRRs] and life expectancy) allows the research community to access a more informative set of health metrics. The aim of this study was to provide a panel of mortality metrics associated with a comprehensive range of disorders and to design a web page to visualize all results. Methods and findings In a population-based cohort of all 7,378,598 persons living in Denmark at some point between 2000 and 2018, we identified individuals diagnosed at hospitals with 1,803 specific categories of disorders through the International Classification of Diseases-10th Revision (ICD-10) in the National Patient Register. Information on date and cause of death was obtained from the Registry of Causes of Death. For each of the disorders, a panel of epidemiological and mortality metrics was estimated, including incidence rates, age-of-onset distributions, MRRs, and differences in life expectancy (estimated as life years lost [LYLs]). Additionally, we examined models that adjusted for measures of air pollution to explore potential associations with MRRs. We focus on 39 general medical conditions to simplify the presentation of results, which cover 10 broad categories: circulatory, endocrine, pulmonary, gastrointestinal, urogenital, musculoskeletal, hematologic, mental, and neurologic conditions and cancer. A total of 3,676,694 males and 3,701,904 females were followed up for 101.7 million person-years. During the 19-year follow-up period, 1,034,273 persons (14.0%) died. For 37 of the 39 selected medical conditions, mortality rates were larger and life expectancy shorter compared to the Danish general population. For these 37 disorders, MRRs ranged from 1.09 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.09 to 1.10) for vision problems to 7.85 (7.77 to 7.93) for chronic liver disease, while LYLs ranged from 0.31 (0.14 to 0.47) years (approximately 16 weeks) for allergy to 17.05 (16.95 to 17.15) years for chronic liver disease. Adjustment for air pollution had very little impact on the estimates; however, a limitation of the study is the possibility that the association between the different disorders and mortality could be explained by other underlying factors associated with both the disorder and mortality. Conclusions In this study, we show estimates of incidence, age of onset, age of death, and mortality metrics (both MRRs and LYLs) for a comprehensive range of disorders. The interactive data visualization site (https://nbepi.com/atlas) allows more fine-grained analysis of the link between a range of disorders and key mortality estimates.
{"title":"Analysis of mortality metrics associated with a comprehensive range of disorders in Denmark, 2000 to 2018: A population-based cohort study","authors":"O. Plana-Ripoll, J. Dreier, N. Momen, Anders Prior, N. Weye, P. Mortensen, C. Pedersen, K. Iburg, M. Christensen, T. Laursen, E. Agerbo, M. Pedersen, J. Brandt, L. Frohn, C. Geels, J. Christensen, J. Mcgrath","doi":"10.1371/journal.pmed.1004023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1004023","url":null,"abstract":"Background The provision of different types of mortality metrics (e.g., mortality rate ratios [MRRs] and life expectancy) allows the research community to access a more informative set of health metrics. The aim of this study was to provide a panel of mortality metrics associated with a comprehensive range of disorders and to design a web page to visualize all results. Methods and findings In a population-based cohort of all 7,378,598 persons living in Denmark at some point between 2000 and 2018, we identified individuals diagnosed at hospitals with 1,803 specific categories of disorders through the International Classification of Diseases-10th Revision (ICD-10) in the National Patient Register. Information on date and cause of death was obtained from the Registry of Causes of Death. For each of the disorders, a panel of epidemiological and mortality metrics was estimated, including incidence rates, age-of-onset distributions, MRRs, and differences in life expectancy (estimated as life years lost [LYLs]). Additionally, we examined models that adjusted for measures of air pollution to explore potential associations with MRRs. We focus on 39 general medical conditions to simplify the presentation of results, which cover 10 broad categories: circulatory, endocrine, pulmonary, gastrointestinal, urogenital, musculoskeletal, hematologic, mental, and neurologic conditions and cancer. A total of 3,676,694 males and 3,701,904 females were followed up for 101.7 million person-years. During the 19-year follow-up period, 1,034,273 persons (14.0%) died. For 37 of the 39 selected medical conditions, mortality rates were larger and life expectancy shorter compared to the Danish general population. For these 37 disorders, MRRs ranged from 1.09 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.09 to 1.10) for vision problems to 7.85 (7.77 to 7.93) for chronic liver disease, while LYLs ranged from 0.31 (0.14 to 0.47) years (approximately 16 weeks) for allergy to 17.05 (16.95 to 17.15) years for chronic liver disease. Adjustment for air pollution had very little impact on the estimates; however, a limitation of the study is the possibility that the association between the different disorders and mortality could be explained by other underlying factors associated with both the disorder and mortality. Conclusions In this study, we show estimates of incidence, age of onset, age of death, and mortality metrics (both MRRs and LYLs) for a comprehensive range of disorders. The interactive data visualization site (https://nbepi.com/atlas) allows more fine-grained analysis of the link between a range of disorders and key mortality estimates.","PeriodicalId":20368,"journal":{"name":"PLoS Medicine","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":15.8,"publicationDate":"2022-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49594433","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-06-01DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1004032
Ntwali Placide Nsengiyumva, J. Campbell, O. Oxlade, J. Vesga, C. Lienhardt, A. Trajman, D. Falzon, S. den Boon, N. Arinaminpathy, K. Schwartzman
Background Shorter, safer, and cheaper tuberculosis (TB) preventive treatment (TPT) regimens will enhance uptake and effectiveness. WHO developed target product profiles describing minimum requirements and optimal targets for key attributes of novel TPT regimens. We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis addressing the scale-up of regimens meeting these criteria in Brazil, a setting with relatively low transmission and low HIV and rifampicin-resistant TB (RR-TB) prevalence, and South Africa, a setting with higher transmission and higher HIV and RR-TB prevalence. Methods and findings We used outputs from a model simulating scale-up of TPT regimens meeting minimal and optimal criteria. We assumed that drug costs for minimal and optimal regimens were identical to 6 months of daily isoniazid (6H). The minimal regimen lasted 3 months, with 70% completion and 80% efficacy; the optimal regimen lasted 1 month, with 90% completion and 100% efficacy. Target groups were people living with HIV (PLHIV) on antiretroviral treatment and household contacts (HHCs) of identified TB patients. The status quo was 6H at 2019 coverage levels for PLHIV and HHCs. We projected TB cases and deaths, TB-associated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and costs (in 2020 US dollars) associated with TB from a TB services perspective from 2020 to 2035, with 3% annual discounting. We estimated the expected costs and outcomes of scaling up 6H, the minimal TPT regimen, or the optimal TPT regimen to reach all eligible PLHIV and HHCs by 2023, compared to the status quo. Maintaining current 6H coverage in Brazil (0% of HHCs and 30% of PLHIV treated) would be associated with 1.1 (95% uncertainty range [UR] 1.1–1.2) million TB cases, 123,000 (115,000–132,000) deaths, and 2.5 (2.1–3.1) million DALYs and would cost $1.1 ($1.0–$1.3) billion during 2020–2035. Expanding the 6H, minimal, or optimal regimen to 100% coverage among eligible groups would reduce DALYs by 0.5% (95% UR 1.2% reduction, 0.4% increase), 2.5% (1.8%–3.0%), and 9.0% (6.5%–11.0%), respectively, with additional costs of $107 ($95–$117) million and $51 ($41–$60) million and savings of $36 ($14–$58) million, respectively. Compared to the status quo, costs per DALY averted were $7,608 and $808 for scaling up the 6H and minimal regimens, respectively, while the optimal regimen was dominant (cost savings, reduced DALYs). In South Africa, maintaining current 6H coverage (0% of HHCs and 69% of PLHIV treated) would be associated with 3.6 (95% UR 3.0–4.3) million TB cases, 843,000 (598,000–1,201,000) deaths, and 36.7 (19.5–58.0) million DALYs and would cost $2.5 ($1.8–$3.6) billion. Expanding coverage with the 6H, minimal, or optimal regimen would reduce DALYs by 6.9% (95% UR 4.3%–95%), 15.5% (11.8%–18.9%), and 38.0% (32.7%–43.0%), respectively, with additional costs of $79 (−$7, $151) million and $40 (−$52, $140) million and savings of $608 ($443–$832) million, respectively. Compared to the status quo, estimated costs per DALY a
{"title":"Scaling up target regimens for tuberculosis preventive treatment in Brazil and South Africa: An analysis of costs and cost-effectiveness","authors":"Ntwali Placide Nsengiyumva, J. Campbell, O. Oxlade, J. Vesga, C. Lienhardt, A. Trajman, D. Falzon, S. den Boon, N. Arinaminpathy, K. Schwartzman","doi":"10.1371/journal.pmed.1004032","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1004032","url":null,"abstract":"Background Shorter, safer, and cheaper tuberculosis (TB) preventive treatment (TPT) regimens will enhance uptake and effectiveness. WHO developed target product profiles describing minimum requirements and optimal targets for key attributes of novel TPT regimens. We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis addressing the scale-up of regimens meeting these criteria in Brazil, a setting with relatively low transmission and low HIV and rifampicin-resistant TB (RR-TB) prevalence, and South Africa, a setting with higher transmission and higher HIV and RR-TB prevalence. Methods and findings We used outputs from a model simulating scale-up of TPT regimens meeting minimal and optimal criteria. We assumed that drug costs for minimal and optimal regimens were identical to 6 months of daily isoniazid (6H). The minimal regimen lasted 3 months, with 70% completion and 80% efficacy; the optimal regimen lasted 1 month, with 90% completion and 100% efficacy. Target groups were people living with HIV (PLHIV) on antiretroviral treatment and household contacts (HHCs) of identified TB patients. The status quo was 6H at 2019 coverage levels for PLHIV and HHCs. We projected TB cases and deaths, TB-associated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and costs (in 2020 US dollars) associated with TB from a TB services perspective from 2020 to 2035, with 3% annual discounting. We estimated the expected costs and outcomes of scaling up 6H, the minimal TPT regimen, or the optimal TPT regimen to reach all eligible PLHIV and HHCs by 2023, compared to the status quo. Maintaining current 6H coverage in Brazil (0% of HHCs and 30% of PLHIV treated) would be associated with 1.1 (95% uncertainty range [UR] 1.1–1.2) million TB cases, 123,000 (115,000–132,000) deaths, and 2.5 (2.1–3.1) million DALYs and would cost $1.1 ($1.0–$1.3) billion during 2020–2035. Expanding the 6H, minimal, or optimal regimen to 100% coverage among eligible groups would reduce DALYs by 0.5% (95% UR 1.2% reduction, 0.4% increase), 2.5% (1.8%–3.0%), and 9.0% (6.5%–11.0%), respectively, with additional costs of $107 ($95–$117) million and $51 ($41–$60) million and savings of $36 ($14–$58) million, respectively. Compared to the status quo, costs per DALY averted were $7,608 and $808 for scaling up the 6H and minimal regimens, respectively, while the optimal regimen was dominant (cost savings, reduced DALYs). In South Africa, maintaining current 6H coverage (0% of HHCs and 69% of PLHIV treated) would be associated with 3.6 (95% UR 3.0–4.3) million TB cases, 843,000 (598,000–1,201,000) deaths, and 36.7 (19.5–58.0) million DALYs and would cost $2.5 ($1.8–$3.6) billion. Expanding coverage with the 6H, minimal, or optimal regimen would reduce DALYs by 6.9% (95% UR 4.3%–95%), 15.5% (11.8%–18.9%), and 38.0% (32.7%–43.0%), respectively, with additional costs of $79 (−$7, $151) million and $40 (−$52, $140) million and savings of $608 ($443–$832) million, respectively. Compared to the status quo, estimated costs per DALY a","PeriodicalId":20368,"journal":{"name":"PLoS Medicine","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":15.8,"publicationDate":"2022-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48782370","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-05-26eCollection Date: 2022-05-01DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1004011
Lukas E Brümmer, Stephan Katzenschlager, Sean McGrath, Stephani Schmitz, Mary Gaeddert, Christian Erdmann, Marc Bota, Maurizio Grilli, Jan Larmann, Markus A Weigand, Nira R Pollock, Aurélien Macé, Berra Erkosar, Sergio Carmona, Jilian A Sacks, Stefano Ongarello, Claudia M Denkinger
Background: Comprehensive information about the accuracy of antigen rapid diagnostic tests (Ag-RDTs) for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is essential to guide public health decision makers in choosing the best tests and testing policies. In August 2021, we published a systematic review and meta-analysis about the accuracy of Ag-RDTs. We now update this work and analyze the factors influencing test sensitivity in further detail.
Methods and findings: We registered the review on PROSPERO (registration number: CRD42020225140). We systematically searched preprint and peer-reviewed databases for publications evaluating the accuracy of Ag-RDTs for SARS-CoV-2 until August 31, 2021. Descriptive analyses of all studies were performed, and when more than 4 studies were available, a random-effects meta-analysis was used to estimate pooled sensitivity and specificity with reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing as a reference. To evaluate factors influencing test sensitivity, we performed 3 different analyses using multivariable mixed-effects meta-regression models. We included 194 studies with 221,878 Ag-RDTs performed. Overall, the pooled estimates of Ag-RDT sensitivity and specificity were 72.0% (95% confidence interval [CI] 69.8 to 74.2) and 98.9% (95% CI 98.6 to 99.1). When manufacturer instructions were followed, sensitivity increased to 76.3% (95% CI 73.7 to 78.7). Sensitivity was markedly better on samples with lower RT-PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values (97.9% [95% CI 96.9 to 98.9] and 90.6% [95% CI 88.3 to 93.0] for Ct-values <20 and <25, compared to 54.4% [95% CI 47.3 to 61.5] and 18.7% [95% CI 13.9 to 23.4] for Ct-values ≥25 and ≥30) and was estimated to increase by 2.9 percentage points (95% CI 1.7 to 4.0) for every unit decrease in mean Ct-value when adjusting for testing procedure and patients' symptom status. Concordantly, we found the mean Ct-value to be lower for true positive (22.2 [95% CI 21.5 to 22.8]) compared to false negative (30.4 [95% CI 29.7 to 31.1]) results. Testing in the first week from symptom onset resulted in substantially higher sensitivity (81.9% [95% CI 77.7 to 85.5]) compared to testing after 1 week (51.8%, 95% CI 41.5 to 61.9). Similarly, sensitivity was higher in symptomatic (76.2% [95% CI 73.3 to 78.9]) compared to asymptomatic (56.8% [95% CI 50.9 to 62.4]) persons. However, both effects were mainly driven by the Ct-value of the sample. With regards to sample type, highest sensitivity was found for nasopharyngeal (NP) and combined NP/oropharyngeal samples (70.8% [95% CI 68.3 to 73.2]), as well as in anterior nasal/mid-turbinate samples (77.3% [95% CI 73.0 to 81.0]). Our analysis was limited by the included studies' heterogeneity in viral load assessment and sample origination.
Conclusions: Ag-RDTs detect most of the individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2, and almost all (>90%) when high viral loads are pr
{"title":"Accuracy of rapid point-of-care antigen-based diagnostics for SARS-CoV-2: An updated systematic review and meta-analysis with meta-regression analyzing influencing factors.","authors":"Lukas E Brümmer, Stephan Katzenschlager, Sean McGrath, Stephani Schmitz, Mary Gaeddert, Christian Erdmann, Marc Bota, Maurizio Grilli, Jan Larmann, Markus A Weigand, Nira R Pollock, Aurélien Macé, Berra Erkosar, Sergio Carmona, Jilian A Sacks, Stefano Ongarello, Claudia M Denkinger","doi":"10.1371/journal.pmed.1004011","DOIUrl":"10.1371/journal.pmed.1004011","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Comprehensive information about the accuracy of antigen rapid diagnostic tests (Ag-RDTs) for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is essential to guide public health decision makers in choosing the best tests and testing policies. In August 2021, we published a systematic review and meta-analysis about the accuracy of Ag-RDTs. We now update this work and analyze the factors influencing test sensitivity in further detail.</p><p><strong>Methods and findings: </strong>We registered the review on PROSPERO (registration number: CRD42020225140). We systematically searched preprint and peer-reviewed databases for publications evaluating the accuracy of Ag-RDTs for SARS-CoV-2 until August 31, 2021. Descriptive analyses of all studies were performed, and when more than 4 studies were available, a random-effects meta-analysis was used to estimate pooled sensitivity and specificity with reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing as a reference. To evaluate factors influencing test sensitivity, we performed 3 different analyses using multivariable mixed-effects meta-regression models. We included 194 studies with 221,878 Ag-RDTs performed. Overall, the pooled estimates of Ag-RDT sensitivity and specificity were 72.0% (95% confidence interval [CI] 69.8 to 74.2) and 98.9% (95% CI 98.6 to 99.1). When manufacturer instructions were followed, sensitivity increased to 76.3% (95% CI 73.7 to 78.7). Sensitivity was markedly better on samples with lower RT-PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values (97.9% [95% CI 96.9 to 98.9] and 90.6% [95% CI 88.3 to 93.0] for Ct-values <20 and <25, compared to 54.4% [95% CI 47.3 to 61.5] and 18.7% [95% CI 13.9 to 23.4] for Ct-values ≥25 and ≥30) and was estimated to increase by 2.9 percentage points (95% CI 1.7 to 4.0) for every unit decrease in mean Ct-value when adjusting for testing procedure and patients' symptom status. Concordantly, we found the mean Ct-value to be lower for true positive (22.2 [95% CI 21.5 to 22.8]) compared to false negative (30.4 [95% CI 29.7 to 31.1]) results. Testing in the first week from symptom onset resulted in substantially higher sensitivity (81.9% [95% CI 77.7 to 85.5]) compared to testing after 1 week (51.8%, 95% CI 41.5 to 61.9). Similarly, sensitivity was higher in symptomatic (76.2% [95% CI 73.3 to 78.9]) compared to asymptomatic (56.8% [95% CI 50.9 to 62.4]) persons. However, both effects were mainly driven by the Ct-value of the sample. With regards to sample type, highest sensitivity was found for nasopharyngeal (NP) and combined NP/oropharyngeal samples (70.8% [95% CI 68.3 to 73.2]), as well as in anterior nasal/mid-turbinate samples (77.3% [95% CI 73.0 to 81.0]). Our analysis was limited by the included studies' heterogeneity in viral load assessment and sample origination.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Ag-RDTs detect most of the individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2, and almost all (>90%) when high viral loads are pr","PeriodicalId":20368,"journal":{"name":"PLoS Medicine","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":15.8,"publicationDate":"2022-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9187092/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45252927","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-05-26eCollection Date: 2022-05-01DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003987
Diana Buitrago-Garcia, Aziz Mert Ipekci, Leonie Heron, Hira Imeri, Lucia Araujo-Chaveron, Ingrid Arevalo-Rodriguez, Agustín Ciapponi, Muge Cevik, Anthony Hauser, Muhammad Irfanul Alam, Kaspar Meili, Eric A Meyerowitz, Nirmala Prajapati, Xueting Qiu, Aaron Richterman, William Gildardo Robles-Rodriguez, Shabnam Thapa, Ivan Zhelyazkov, Georgia Salanti, Nicola Low
Background: Debate about the level of asymptomatic Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection continues. The amount of evidence is increasing and study designs have changed over time. We updated a living systematic review to address 3 questions: (1) Among people who become infected with SARS-CoV-2, what proportion does not experience symptoms at all during their infection? (2) What is the infectiousness of asymptomatic and presymptomatic, compared with symptomatic, SARS-CoV-2 infection? (3) What proportion of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a population is accounted for by people who are asymptomatic or presymptomatic?
Methods and findings: The protocol was first published on 1 April 2020 and last updated on 18 June 2021. We searched PubMed, Embase, bioRxiv, and medRxiv, aggregated in a database of SARS-CoV-2 literature, most recently on 6 July 2021. Studies of people with PCR-diagnosed SARS-CoV-2, which documented symptom status at the beginning and end of follow-up, or mathematical modelling studies were included. Studies restricted to people already diagnosed, of single individuals or families, or without sufficient follow-up were excluded. One reviewer extracted data and a second verified the extraction, with disagreement resolved by discussion or a third reviewer. Risk of bias in empirical studies was assessed with a bespoke checklist and modelling studies with a published checklist. All data syntheses were done using random effects models. Review question (1): We included 130 studies. Heterogeneity was high so we did not estimate a mean proportion of asymptomatic infections overall (interquartile range (IQR) 14% to 50%, prediction interval 2% to 90%), or in 84 studies based on screening of defined populations (IQR 20% to 65%, prediction interval 4% to 94%). In 46 studies based on contact or outbreak investigations, the summary proportion asymptomatic was 19% (95% confidence interval (CI) 15% to 25%, prediction interval 2% to 70%). (2) The secondary attack rate in contacts of people with asymptomatic infection compared with symptomatic infection was 0.32 (95% CI 0.16 to 0.64, prediction interval 0.11 to 0.95, 8 studies). (3) In 13 modelling studies fit to data, the proportion of all SARS-CoV-2 transmission from presymptomatic individuals was higher than from asymptomatic individuals. Limitations of the evidence include high heterogeneity and high risks of selection and information bias in studies that were not designed to measure persistently asymptomatic infection, and limited information about variants of concern or in people who have been vaccinated.
Conclusions: Based on studies published up to July 2021, most SARS-CoV-2 infections were not persistently asymptomatic, and asymptomatic infections were less infectious than symptomatic infections. Summary estimates from meta-analysis may be misleading when variability between studies is extreme and predi
{"title":"Occurrence and transmission potential of asymptomatic and presymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections: Update of a living systematic review and meta-analysis.","authors":"Diana Buitrago-Garcia, Aziz Mert Ipekci, Leonie Heron, Hira Imeri, Lucia Araujo-Chaveron, Ingrid Arevalo-Rodriguez, Agustín Ciapponi, Muge Cevik, Anthony Hauser, Muhammad Irfanul Alam, Kaspar Meili, Eric A Meyerowitz, Nirmala Prajapati, Xueting Qiu, Aaron Richterman, William Gildardo Robles-Rodriguez, Shabnam Thapa, Ivan Zhelyazkov, Georgia Salanti, Nicola Low","doi":"10.1371/journal.pmed.1003987","DOIUrl":"10.1371/journal.pmed.1003987","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Debate about the level of asymptomatic Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection continues. The amount of evidence is increasing and study designs have changed over time. We updated a living systematic review to address 3 questions: (1) Among people who become infected with SARS-CoV-2, what proportion does not experience symptoms at all during their infection? (2) What is the infectiousness of asymptomatic and presymptomatic, compared with symptomatic, SARS-CoV-2 infection? (3) What proportion of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a population is accounted for by people who are asymptomatic or presymptomatic?</p><p><strong>Methods and findings: </strong>The protocol was first published on 1 April 2020 and last updated on 18 June 2021. We searched PubMed, Embase, bioRxiv, and medRxiv, aggregated in a database of SARS-CoV-2 literature, most recently on 6 July 2021. Studies of people with PCR-diagnosed SARS-CoV-2, which documented symptom status at the beginning and end of follow-up, or mathematical modelling studies were included. Studies restricted to people already diagnosed, of single individuals or families, or without sufficient follow-up were excluded. One reviewer extracted data and a second verified the extraction, with disagreement resolved by discussion or a third reviewer. Risk of bias in empirical studies was assessed with a bespoke checklist and modelling studies with a published checklist. All data syntheses were done using random effects models. Review question (1): We included 130 studies. Heterogeneity was high so we did not estimate a mean proportion of asymptomatic infections overall (interquartile range (IQR) 14% to 50%, prediction interval 2% to 90%), or in 84 studies based on screening of defined populations (IQR 20% to 65%, prediction interval 4% to 94%). In 46 studies based on contact or outbreak investigations, the summary proportion asymptomatic was 19% (95% confidence interval (CI) 15% to 25%, prediction interval 2% to 70%). (2) The secondary attack rate in contacts of people with asymptomatic infection compared with symptomatic infection was 0.32 (95% CI 0.16 to 0.64, prediction interval 0.11 to 0.95, 8 studies). (3) In 13 modelling studies fit to data, the proportion of all SARS-CoV-2 transmission from presymptomatic individuals was higher than from asymptomatic individuals. Limitations of the evidence include high heterogeneity and high risks of selection and information bias in studies that were not designed to measure persistently asymptomatic infection, and limited information about variants of concern or in people who have been vaccinated.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Based on studies published up to July 2021, most SARS-CoV-2 infections were not persistently asymptomatic, and asymptomatic infections were less infectious than symptomatic infections. Summary estimates from meta-analysis may be misleading when variability between studies is extreme and predi","PeriodicalId":20368,"journal":{"name":"PLoS Medicine","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":10.5,"publicationDate":"2022-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9135333/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45603891","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}