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Elevated Carbon Dioxide only Partly Alleviates the Negative Effects of Elevated Temperature on Potato Growth and Tuber Yield 高浓度二氧化碳只能部分缓解高温对马铃薯生长和块茎产量的负面影响
IF 2.9 3区 农林科学 Q1 AGRONOMY Pub Date : 2024-07-20 DOI: 10.1007/s11540-024-09767-4
S. C. Kiongo, N. J. Taylor, A. C. Franke, J. M. Steyn

The current rapid increase in ambient carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) and global temperatures have major impacts on the growth and yield of crops. Potato is classified as a heat-sensitive temperate crop and its growth and yield are expected to be negatively affected by rising temperatures, but it is also expected to respond positively to increasing ambient [CO2]. In this study, we investigated the physiological, growth, and yield responses of two potato cultivars to elevated temperature (eT) and the possible role of elevated [CO2] (e[CO2]) in counteracting the negative effects of eT. Two growth chamber trials (trials 1 and 2) were conducted using two temperature regimes: ambient temperature (aT, Tmin/Tmax = 12/25 ℃) and eT (Tmin/Tmax = 15/38 ℃), and two [CO2]: ambient (a[CO2]) = 415 ppm and e[CO2] = 700 ppm. Temperatures gradually rose from the minimum at 6.00 AM to reach Tmax at noon, then Tmax was maintained for 1 h in trial 1 and for 4 h in trial 2. Elevated [CO2] increased photosynthesis (Anet) in both cultivars at aT and eT. Elevated temperature also stimulated Anet compared to aT. Elevated [CO2] significantly reduced stomatal opening size, while eT resulted in larger stomata openings and higher stomatal conductance. Elevated [CO2] increased tuber yields at aT in both trials. Tuberisation was delayed by eT in trial 1, and completely inhibited in trial 2 even at e[CO2], resulting in no tuber yield. The two cultivars responded similarly to treatments, but Mondial initiated more tubers and had higher tuber yield than BP1. The results suggest that potato will benefit from e[CO2] in future, even when exposed to high Tmax for a short period of the day, but the benefit will be eroded when the crop is exposed to high Tmax for an extended period of the day.

目前,环境二氧化碳浓度([CO2])和全球气温迅速上升,对农作物的生长和产量产生了重大影响。马铃薯被归类为对热敏感的温带作物,其生长和产量预计会受到气温升高的负面影响,但也有望对环境[CO2]的升高做出积极反应。在这项研究中,我们调查了两个马铃薯栽培品种对升高温度(eT)的生理、生长和产量反应,以及升高的[CO2](e[CO2])在抵消 eT 负面影响方面可能发挥的作用。在两个生长室试验(试验 1 和 2)中使用了两种温度制度:环境温度(aT,Tmin/Tmax = 12/25 ℃)和 eT(Tmin/Tmax = 15/38 ℃),以及两种[CO2]:环境温度(a[CO2])= 415 ppm 和 e[CO2] = 700 ppm。温度从早上 6 点的最低温度逐渐升高,到中午达到最高温度,然后在试验 1 和试验 2 中将最高温度分别维持 1 小时和 4 小时。升高的[CO2]提高了两个品种在 aT 和 eT 时的光合作用(Anet)。与 aT 相比,温度升高也会刺激 Anet。升高的[CO2]显著降低了气孔开度,而 eT 则使气孔开度更大,气孔导度更高。在两个试验中,升温[CO2]都提高了aT的块茎产量。在试验 1 中,eT 会延迟块茎化,而在试验 2 中,即使在 e[CO2] 条件下也会完全抑制块茎化,从而导致无块茎产量。两种栽培品种对处理的反应相似,但蒙迪艾尔比 BP1 产生的块茎更多,块茎产量更高。结果表明,即使在一天中短时间内暴露于高Tmax下,马铃薯将来也会从e[CO2]中获益,但当作物在一天中长时间暴露于高Tmax下时,获益就会被削弱。
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引用次数: 0
Effects of Potassium Fertilizer Base/Topdressing Ratio on Dry Matter Quality, Photosynthetic Fluorescence Characteristics and Carbon and Nitrogen Metabolism of Potato 钾肥基肥/顶肥比例对马铃薯干物质质量、光合荧光特性和碳氮代谢的影响
IF 2.9 3区 农林科学 Q1 AGRONOMY Pub Date : 2024-07-17 DOI: 10.1007/s11540-024-09757-6
Jiali Xie, Ming Li, Mingfu Shi, Yichen Kang, Ruyan Zhang, Yong Wang, Weina Zhang, Shuhao Qin

Potassium is an essential nutrient element for potato production. However, there is little research on how the base/topdressing ratio of potassium fertilizer affects plant growth. Therefore, in this 2-year (2022–2023) study, we used Longshu 7 as the experimental material and conducted a pot experiment. Under the condition of total potassium application of 5.4 g/plant, the potassium fertilizer base/topdressing ratios were as follows: CK (10:0), T1 (2:8), T2 (4:6), T3 (6:4), and T4 (8:2). We investigated the effects of potassium fertilizer application on dry matter quality, endogenous hormones, photosynthetic fluorescence characteristics, carbon and nitrogen metabolism and yield in potato. The results of the study demonstrated that potassium topdressing had a positive effect on plant growth through the optimization of endogenous hormone content and regulation of cell elongation. In addition, potassium application can enhance the activity of enzymes related to carbon and nitrogen metabolism, promote photosynthesis, improve the transport efficiency of photosynthetic products and enhance the dry matter quality of tubers. Among all the potassium topdressing treatments, the T2 treatment exhibited a significant difference. However, it is important to note that an excessive increase in the base/topdressing ratio of potassium fertilizer may have detrimental effects on the levels of gibberellin A3 (GA3) and starch content. Based on Pearson correlation analysis, it was determined that the activities of sucrose synthase (SuSy), sucrose phosphate synthase (SPS) and glutamine synthetase (GS) play a significant role in influencing the dry matter quality of potato tubers. These findings provide valuable insights into the importance of these factors in potato production. Overall, the results of this study highlight the significance of maintaining an appropriate ratio of base to topdressing of potassium fertilizer. This optimal ratio ensures the efficient assimilation and utilization of nitrogen and carbon, ultimately serving as a valuable theoretical foundation for effective potassium fertilizer application in potato production.

钾是马铃薯生产中不可或缺的营养元素。然而,关于钾肥的基肥/上肥比例如何影响植物生长的研究却很少。因此,在这项为期两年(2022-2023 年)的研究中,我们以龙薯 7 号为实验材料,进行了盆栽实验。在总施钾量为 5.4 克/株的条件下,钾肥的基肥/表肥比例如下:CK(10:0)、T1(2:8)、T2(4:6)、T3(6:4)和 T4(8:2)。我们研究了施用钾肥对马铃薯干物质品质、内源激素、光合荧光特性、碳氮代谢和产量的影响。研究结果表明,钾肥通过优化内源激素含量和调节细胞伸长对植物生长有积极影响。此外,施钾还能增强与碳氮代谢有关的酶的活性,促进光合作用,提高光合产物的运输效率,提高块茎的干物质质量。在所有施钾处理中,T2 处理表现出显著差异。但需要注意的是,钾肥的基肥/表肥比例增加过多可能会对赤霉素 A3(GA3)水平和淀粉含量产生不利影响。根据皮尔逊相关分析,可以确定蔗糖合成酶(SuSy)、蔗糖磷酸合成酶(SPS)和谷氨酰胺合成酶(GS)的活性在影响马铃薯块茎干物质质量方面起着重要作用。这些发现为了解这些因素在马铃薯生产中的重要性提供了宝贵的见解。总之,这项研究的结果突显了保持适当的钾肥基肥和表肥比例的重要性。这种最佳比例可确保氮和碳的有效同化和利用,最终成为马铃薯生产中有效施用钾肥的宝贵理论基础。
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引用次数: 0
Predicting Potato Crop Yield with Machine Learning and Deep Learning for Sustainable Agriculture 利用机器学习和深度学习预测马铃薯作物产量,促进可持续农业发展
IF 2.9 3区 农林科学 Q1 AGRONOMY Pub Date : 2024-07-13 DOI: 10.1007/s11540-024-09753-w
El-Sayed M. El-Kenawy, Amel Ali Alhussan, Nima Khodadadi, Seyedali Mirjalili, Marwa M. Eid

Potatoes are an important crop in the world; they are the main source of food for a large number of people globally and also provide an income for many people. The true forecasting of potato yields is a determining factor for the rational use and maximization of agricultural practices, responsible management of the resources, and wider regions’ food security. The latest discoveries in machine learning and deep learning provide new directions to yield prediction models more accurately and sparingly. From the study, we evaluated different types of predictive models, including K-nearest neighbors (KNN), gradient boosting, XGBoost, and multilayer perceptron that use machine learning, as well as graph neural networks (GNNs), gated recurrent units (GRUs), and long short-term memory networks (LSTM), which are popular in deep learning models. These models are evaluated on the basis of some performance measures like mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE) to know how much they accurately predict the potato yields. The terminal results show that although gradient boosting and XGBoost algorithms are good at potato yield prediction, GNNs and LSTMs not only have the advantage of high accuracy but also capture the complex spatial and temporal patterns in the data. Gradient boosting resulted in an MSE of 0.03438 and an R2 of 0.49168, while XGBoost had an MSE of 0.03583 and an R2 of 0.35106. Out of all deep learning models, GNNs displayed an MSE of 0.02363 and an R2 of 0.51719, excelling in the overall performance. LSTMs and GRUs were reported to be very promising as well, with LSTMs comprehending an MSE of 0.03177 and GRUs grabbing an MSE of 0.03150. These findings underscore the potential of advanced predictive models to support sustainable agricultural practices and informed decision-making in the context of potato farming.

马铃薯是世界上重要的农作物;它是全球许多人的主要食物来源,也为许多人提供收入。对马铃薯产量的真实预测是合理利用和最大化农业实践、负责任地管理资源以及更广泛地区粮食安全的决定性因素。机器学习和深度学习的最新发现为更准确、更简便地建立产量预测模型提供了新的方向。通过研究,我们评估了不同类型的预测模型,包括使用机器学习的 K 近邻(KNN)、梯度提升、XGBoost 和多层感知器,以及深度学习模型中流行的图神经网络(GNN)、门控递归单元(GRU)和长短期记忆网络(LSTM)。这些模型根据一些性能指标进行评估,如均值平方误差(MSE)、均值平方根误差(RMSE)和均值绝对误差(MAE),以了解它们预测马铃薯产量的准确程度。最终结果表明,虽然梯度提升和 XGBoost 算法在预测马铃薯产量方面表现出色,但 GNNs 和 LSTMs 不仅具有准确率高的优势,还能捕捉数据中复杂的时空模式。梯度提升的 MSE 为 0.03438,R2 为 0.49168,而 XGBoost 的 MSE 为 0.03583,R2 为 0.35106。在所有深度学习模型中,GNNs 的 MSE 为 0.02363,R2 为 0.51719,整体表现优异。据报告,LSTM 和 GRU 也很有前途,LSTM 的 MSE 为 0.03177,GRU 的 MSE 为 0.03150。这些发现凸显了先进预测模型在支持可持续农业实践和马铃薯种植知情决策方面的潜力。
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引用次数: 0
Determination of Resistance Levels of National Potato Cultivars and Clones Against Golden Cyst Nematode Pathotype Ro2/3 via Phenotypic and DNA Marker-Assisted Characterization 通过表型和 DNA 标记辅助表征确定国家马铃薯栽培品种和克隆对金色胞囊线虫病原型 Ro2/3 的抗性水平
IF 2.9 3区 农林科学 Q1 AGRONOMY Pub Date : 2024-07-12 DOI: 10.1007/s11540-024-09750-z
Gülten Kaçar Avcı, Ramazan Canhilal, Halil Toktay, Mustafa İmren, Levent Ünlenen, Uğur Pırlak

Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) is one of our important agricultural products, which is the main food source for people in Türkiye, as well as all over the world. There are many diseases and pests that reduce productivity in potato plant production. Potato cyst nematodes (Tylenchida: Heteroderidae) are pests that are on the quarantine list of the European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organization and cause serious yield losses. Since they are soil-borne pathogens and there is no effective chemical control, the most successful control method is to use resistant cultivars. The aim of the study was to determine the resistance levels of local and national potato cultivars and clones developed by the Nigde Potato Research Institute against the Globodera rostochiensis Ro2/3 pathotype using molecular marker analysis and biotesting methods. The biotest study was carried out by inoculating 7500 eggs and larvae of the Globedera rostochiensis pathotype Ro2/3 into pots. In the molecular marker analysis, resistance was investigated with TG689, 57R, Gro1-4 markers. While all cultivars and clones except Bettina were grouped as sensitive in the biotesting study, the H1 resistance gene was detected in Onaran, Ünlenen, Leventbey, Muratbey, Nahita, Agria, Madeleine, Desiree and Bettina cultivars by molecular marker analysis. H1 and Gro1-4 resistance genes were detected in the PAE 13–08-07, PAE 13–08-08 and PAE 13–08-14 clones used in the experiment. The results showed that clones developed by the Potato Research Institute exhibited highly resistant marker alleles for the Ro2/3 pathotype of G. rostochiensis. The results of phenotyping study and the molecular marker study were not similar.

马铃薯(Solanum tuberosum L.)是我国重要的农产品之一,是土耳其乃至全世界人民的主要食物来源。有许多病虫害降低了马铃薯的产量。马铃薯胞囊线虫(Tylenchida: Heteroderidae)是欧洲和地中海植物保护组织检疫清单上的害虫,会造成严重的产量损失。由于它们是土壤传播的病原体,而且没有有效的化学防治方法,最成功的防治方法是使用抗性栽培品种。这项研究的目的是利用分子标记分析和生物测定方法,确定尼格德马铃薯研究所培育的本地和全国马铃薯栽培品种和克隆对 Globodera rostochiensis Ro2/3 病型的抗性水平。生物测试研究是通过将 7500 个 Globodera rostochiensis 病理型 Ro2/3 的卵和幼虫接种到花盆中进行的。在分子标记分析中,使用 TG689、57R 和 Gro1-4 标记研究了抗性。在生物测试研究中,除 Bettina 外的所有栽培品种和克隆都被归为敏感品种,但通过分子标记分析,在 Onaran、Ünlenen、Leventbey、Muratbey、Nahita、Agria、Madeleine、Desiree 和 Bettina 等栽培品种中检测到了 H1 抗性基因。在试验中使用的 PAE 13-08-07、PAE 13-08-08 和 PAE 13-08-14 克隆中检测到了 H1 和 Gro1-4 抗性基因。结果表明,马铃薯研究所开发的克隆表现出对 Ro2/3 病型 G. rostochiensis 的高抗性标记等位基因。表型研究和分子标记研究的结果并不相似。
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引用次数: 0
Enhancing Iron Content in Potatoes: a Critical Strategy for Combating Nutritional Deficiencies 提高马铃薯中的铁含量:解决营养缺乏问题的关键策略
IF 2.9 3区 农林科学 Q1 AGRONOMY Pub Date : 2024-07-10 DOI: 10.1007/s11540-024-09758-5
Zain Mushtaq, Abdulrahman Alasmari, Cihan Demir, Mükerrem Atalay Oral, Korkmaz Bellitürk, Mehmet Fırat Baran

Despite recent advances in the prevention and control of nutritional deficiencies, estimates suggest that over two billion individuals worldwide are at risk for vitamin A, iodine and/or iron insufficiency. Pregnant women and small children are most at risk, and Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa have very high incidence rates. Concerning public health are deficits in zinc, folate and the B vitamins, among other micronutrients. Micronutrient malnutrition, often referred to as hidden hunger, represents one of humanity’s most pressing challenges. Iron deficiency anaemia affects more individuals globally than any other prevalent disorder. However, iron supplementation can exacerbate infectious diseases, necessitating careful evaluation of iron therapy policies. In this review, we explore biofortification strategies to combat hidden hunger, considering recent medical and nutritional advancements. Enhancing iron content in edible plant parts can improve human nutrient status through crop consumption. Mineral and vitamin density in staple foods, particularly for impoverished populations, can be increased using traditional plant breeding or transgenic approaches, collectively known as biofortification. Microbial iron biofortification is especially valuable in developing countries where expensive supplements are unaffordable. Additionally, the current COVID-19 pandemic underscores the need for a robust immune system, with iron playing a crucial role in immune function enhancement.

尽管最近在预防和控制营养缺乏症方面取得了进展,但据估计,全世界仍有 20 多亿人面临维生素 A、碘和/或铁缺乏症的风险。孕妇和幼儿面临的风险最大,东南亚和撒哈拉以南非洲的发病率非常高。锌、叶酸和 B 族维生素等微量营养素的缺乏也与公众健康息息相关。微量营养素营养不良通常被称为隐性饥饿,是人类最紧迫的挑战之一。在全球范围内,缺铁性贫血的患病人数比其他任何疾病都要多。然而,补铁可能会加剧传染病,因此有必要对铁治疗政策进行仔细评估。在本综述中,我们将结合最新的医学和营养学进展,探讨消除隐性饥饿的生物强化战略。提高可食用植物部分的铁含量可以通过作物消费改善人类的营养状况。利用传统的植物育种或转基因方法(统称为生物强化),可以提高主食中的矿物质和维生素密度,尤其是对贫困人口而言。微生物铁生物强化在发展中国家尤其有价值,因为这些国家负担不起昂贵的补充剂。此外,目前的 COVID-19 大流行强调了对强大免疫系统的需求,而铁在增强免疫功能方面发挥着至关重要的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Early Detection of Potato Disease Using an Enhanced Convolutional Neural Network-Long Short-Term Memory Deep Learning Model 使用增强型卷积神经网络-长短期记忆深度学习模型早期检测马铃薯病害
IF 2.9 3区 农林科学 Q1 AGRONOMY Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.1007/s11540-024-09760-x
Sarah A. Alzakari, Amel Ali Alhussan, Al-Seyday T. Qenawy, Ahmed M. Elshewey

Potato diseases pose a significant threat to farmers, impacting potato crops’ productivity, quality, and financial stability. Among the most notorious diseases is late blight, caused by Phytophthora infestans, famously responsible for triggering the Irish Potato Famine in the 1840s. Late blight swiftly devastates potato foliage and tubers, particularly in damp, humid conditions. Another common disease is early blight, attributed to Alternaria solani. This disease affects various parts of the potato plant—leaves, stems, and tubers. It mainly shows up in the form of dark stains around the center of a bull’s eye on the leaves, bringing down both the yield and the crop quality. A model consisting of a Convolutional Neural Network - Long Short-Term Memory (CNN-LSTM) enhanced for potato disease detection was proposed in our paper. The dataset used was Z-score standardized before the training and testing process using the proposed CNN-LSTM model was started. The performance of the implemented model, CNN-LSTM, was analyzed alongside five traditional machine learning algorithms, namely Random Forest (RF), Extra Trees (ET), K-Nearest Neighbours (KNN), Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost), and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, F-score, and AUC were the metrics included in the evaluation, confirming the effectiveness of the models. The results of the experiments showed that our CNN-LSTM reached the highest accuracy at 97.1%.

马铃薯病害对农民构成重大威胁,影响马铃薯作物的产量、质量和经济稳定性。其中最臭名昭著的病害是晚疫病,由Phytophthora infestans引起,它是引发19世纪40年代爱尔兰马铃薯大饥荒的著名原因。晚疫病迅速破坏马铃薯的叶片和块茎,尤其是在潮湿的条件下。另一种常见的病害是早疫病,由Alternaria solani引起。这种病害影响马铃薯植株的各个部分--叶、茎和块茎。它主要表现为叶片上牛眼状中心周围的黑斑,导致产量和作物质量下降。我们在论文中提出了一个用于马铃薯病害检测的增强型卷积神经网络-长短期记忆(CNN-LSTM)模型。在开始使用所提出的 CNN-LSTM 模型进行训练和测试之前,所使用的数据集是 Z 分数标准化数据集。本文分析了 CNN-LSTM 模型与五种传统机器学习算法(即随机森林 (RF)、额外树 (ET)、K-近邻 (KNN)、自适应提升 (AdaBoost) 和支持向量机 (SVM))的性能。准确度、灵敏度、特异性、F-score 和 AUC 是评估的指标,它们证实了模型的有效性。实验结果表明,CNN-LSTM 的准确率最高,达到 97.1%。
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引用次数: 0
Empirical Gains from Growing Potato Under Contract Farming in Punjab, India 印度旁遮普省订单农业种植马铃薯的经验收益
IF 2.9 3区 农林科学 Q1 AGRONOMY Pub Date : 2024-07-06 DOI: 10.1007/s11540-024-09762-9
Pavneet Kaur, Naresh Singla

The persistence of agrarian crises in Punjab state of India has necessitated the policymakers to identify new institutional agri-businesses to make farm growth sustainable and inclusive. Contract farming in high-value crops such as potato is seen as one of the several ways to develop new market linkages with the farmers and improve farming income consistently through the dissemination of new production and post-harvest processing technologies. In this context, a comparative analysis of contract farmers associated with the PepsiCo company and non-contract farmers growing potato for local markets is carried out in Punjab to determine the empirical gains that accrue to contract farmers and the role of contract farming in farm diversification. The findings revealed that the company procures potatoes at farmers' fields through quad-partite and written contractual agreements, extends extension and training facilities at the farmers' doorstep, and provides yield-based incentives to the farmers. Contract farmers earned more profits than their counterpart non-contract farmers mainly due to their better price realization, although contract farmers had lower yields and higher cost of production than non-contract farmers. However, the imposition of the condition of growing at least 4 ha of area under potatoes led to the exclusion of small farmers and did not lead to diversification away from traditional crops to high-value crops such as potato. The study argues that the Punjab government needs to play a proactive role in facilitating the participation of small farmers through group contracts and Farmer Producer Organizations (FPOs) to enhance farmers' income and crop diversification through potato contract farming.

印度旁遮普邦持续存在的土地危机促使决策者必须确定新的机构性农业企业,使农业增长具有可持续性和包容性。马铃薯等高价值作物的订单农业被视为与农民建立新的市场联系并通过传播新的生产和收获后加工技术持续提高农业收入的几种方法之一。在此背景下,对旁遮普省与百事公司有联系的签约农民和为当地市场种植马铃薯的非签约农民进行了比较分析,以确定签约农民获得的经验收益以及签约农业在农业多样化中的作用。研究结果表明,该公司通过四方和书面合同协议在农民田间采购马铃薯,在农民家门口提供推广和培训设施,并向农民提供基于产量的奖励。与非签约农民相比,签约农民的产量较低,生产成本较高,但签约农民的利润高于非签约农民,主要原因是价格实现情况较好。然而,规定马铃薯种植面积至少为 4 公顷的条件导致了小农户被排斥在外,并没有促成从传统作物到马铃薯等高价值作物的多样化。研究认为,旁遮普省政府需要发挥积极作用,通过集体合同和农民生产者组织(FPOs)促进小农户的参与,通过马铃薯合同种植提高农民收入和作物多样化。
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引用次数: 0
Potential Yield of Potato Under Global Warming Based on an ARIMA-TR Model 基于 ARIMA-TR 模型的全球变暖条件下马铃薯的潜在产量
IF 2.9 3区 农林科学 Q1 AGRONOMY Pub Date : 2024-07-06 DOI: 10.1007/s11540-024-09745-w
Cai Chengzhi, Wei Sha, Duan Shengnan, Cao Wenfang

As an important food crop in the world, potato has been attracting scholarly attention to improve its yield in the future, particularly under climate change. Therefore, analyzing the potential yield of potato as affected by global warming is of great significance to direct the production of crops worldwide. However, up to now, most research reports estimated the potential yield of potatoes by models which are based on the theory of production functions while there are few theoretical studies on the time-series approach based on stationary stochastic processes. Thus, in this paper, both average and top (national) yields of potato between 2021 and 2030 are projected creatively using an auto-regressive integrated moving average and trend regression (ARIMA-TR) model basing the projection on historic yields from 1961 to 2020 to explore the potential yield of the crop in the future; the effects of global warming on both average and top (national) yields of potato from 1961 to 2020 are analyzed using binary regression models in which global mean temperature is treated as the independent variable and the yield as the dependent variable, to reveal how climatic events drive the variation trend of these two types of yield. Our results show that between 2021 and 2030, the average yield of potato is projected to be from 21,234 to 23,773 kg/ha while the top yield ranges from 50,240 to 51,452 kg/ha; the average will approach from 42.26 to 46.20% of the top, or the gap between these two yields will be gradually narrowed in the ensuing decade; from 1961 to 2020, global warming exerts a positive effect on the average yield of potato with a quadratic function (R-squared = 0.772 and F = 96.417) more than on the top yield with an inverse function (R-squared = 0.568 and F = 76.201), which partly makes the gap between these two types of yields shrink. Our study concludes that for potato by 2030, the opportunities for improving global production should be dependent on both high- and low-yield countries as the average yield is in the main body of an S-shaped curve in the evolutionary trend in the long run. These insights provide the academic circle with innovative comprehension of the potential yield of potato for global food security under climate change.

作为世界上重要的粮食作物,马铃薯一直受到学者们的关注,以提高其未来的产量,尤其是在气候变化的情况下。因此,分析马铃薯受全球变暖影响的潜在产量对指导全球作物生产具有重要意义。然而,迄今为止,大多数研究报告都是通过基于生产函数理论的模型来估算马铃薯的潜在产量,而基于静态随机过程的时间序列方法的理论研究却很少。因此,本文在1961年至2020年历史产量的基础上,使用自回归综合移动平均和趋势回归(ARIMA-TR)模型,创造性地预测了2021年至2030年马铃薯的平均产量和最高产量(全国),以探索未来作物的潜在产量;使用二元回归模型分析全球变暖对1961年至2020年马铃薯平均产量和最高产量(全国)的影响,其中全球平均气温被视为自变量,产量被视为因变量,以揭示气候事件如何驱动这两种产量的变化趋势。结果表明,2021 年至 2030 年间,马铃薯的平均产量预计为 21,234 至 23,773 公斤/公顷,最高产量为 50,240 至 51,452 公斤/公顷;平均产量将接近最高产量的 42.26 至 46.从 1961 年到 2020 年,全球变暖对马铃薯平均产量的正向影响(二次函数)(R 方 = 0.772,F = 96.417)大于对最高产量的反向影响(R 方 = 0.568,F = 76.201),这在一定程度上缩小了两种产量之间的差距。我们的研究得出结论,对于 2030 年的马铃薯而言,提高全球产量的机会应取决于高产和低产国家,因为平均单产处于长期演化趋势中的 S 型曲线的主体。这些见解为学术界提供了对气候变化下马铃薯促进全球粮食安全的潜在产量的创新理解。
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引用次数: 0
Laboratory Efficacy of Essential Oils Against Pectobacterium carotovorum Subsp. carotovorum and Pectobacterium atrosepticum Causing Soft Rot of Potato Tubers 精油对引起马铃薯块茎软腐病的果胶杆菌(Pectobacterium carotovorum Subsp.
IF 2.9 3区 农林科学 Q1 AGRONOMY Pub Date : 2024-07-02 DOI: 10.1007/s11540-024-09743-y
Barbora Jílková, Jana Víchová, Ludmila Holková, Helena Pluháčková, Markéta Michutová, Martin Kmoch

The antibacterial activity of essential oils (EOs) from Carum carvi, Cinnamomum zeylanicum, Cuminum cyminum, Eugenia caryophyllus, Foeniculum vulgare, Melaleuca alternifolia, Mentha × piperita, Origanum vulgare, Rosmarinus officinalis and Thymus vulgaris was tested against Pectobacterium carotovorum subsp. carotovorum (Pcc) and Pectobacterium atrosepticum (Pa), which cause soft rot of potato tubers. In disc diffusion, minimum inhibitory concentration and minimum bactericidal concentration (MBC) tests, cinnamon EO was found to be most effective against both bacteria. The inhibition zones ranged from 20.46 to 29.58 mm for a concentration of 100 μL/mL. The minimum inhibitory concentration was 0.5 μL/mL, and MBC was between 0.5 and 5 μL/mL. The higher sensitivity of bacteria was manifested in clove (Pcc and Pa), mint (Pcc), oregano (Pa) and thyme (Pa) EOs. Rosemary EO was the least effective. The results of the in vivo test were not entirely consistent with those of the in vitro tests. The most significant antibacterial effect was achieved with mint EO. The treatment of potato tuber discs with mint EO at a concentration of 3 μL/mL for Pcc and 3–10 μL/mL for Pa was 100% effective. The efficacy of the essential oils of caraway (5–10 μL/mL), thyme (10 μL/mL) and oregano (5 μL/mL) also ranged from 95.7 to 99.7%. Based on the results of the in vivo test, it may be recommended that mint EO and potentially caraway, oregano and thyme EOs be further tested for pickling potato tubers against bacteria of the genus Pectobacterium.

测试了来自 Carum carvi、Cinnamomum zeylanicum、Cuminum cyminum、Eugenia caryophyllus、Foeniculum vulgare、Melaleuca alternifolia、Mentha × piperita、Origanum vulgare、Rosmarinus officinalis 和 Thymus vulgaris 的精油(EOs)对引起马铃薯块茎软腐病的果胶杆菌(Pectobacterium carotovorum subsp.Pectobacterium carotovorum subsp. Carotovorum (Pcc) 和 Pectobacterium atrosepticum (Pa),它们会导致马铃薯块茎软腐。在盘扩散、最低抑菌浓度和最低杀菌浓度(MBC)测试中,发现肉桂环氧乙烷对这两种细菌最有效。浓度为 100 μL/mL 时,抑菌区范围为 20.46 至 29.58 mm。最小抑菌浓度为 0.5 μL/mL,MBC 在 0.5 至 5 μL/mL 之间。丁香(Pcc 和 Pa)、薄荷(Pcc)、牛至(Pa)和百里香(Pa)环氧乙烷对细菌的敏感性较高。迷迭香环氧乙烷的效果最差。体内试验的结果与体外试验的结果并不完全一致。薄荷油的抗菌效果最明显。用浓度为 3 μL/mL 的薄荷 EO 处理马铃薯块茎圆片,对 Pcc 有效率为 100%,对 Pa 有效率为 3-10 μL/mL 。香芹精油(5-10 μL/mL)、百里香精油(10 μL/mL)和牛至精油(5 μL/mL)的有效率也在 95.7% 到 99.7% 之间。根据体内试验的结果,建议进一步测试薄荷环氧乙烷以及香芹、牛至和百里香环氧乙烷在腌制马铃薯块茎时对果胶杆菌属细菌的作用。
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引用次数: 0
An Enhanced Long Short-Term Memory Recurrent Neural Network Deep Learning Model for Potato Price Prediction 用于马铃薯价格预测的增强型长短期记忆递归神经网络深度学习模型
IF 2.9 3区 农林科学 Q1 AGRONOMY Pub Date : 2024-06-29 DOI: 10.1007/s11540-024-09744-x
Sarah A. Alzakari, Amel Ali Alhussan, Al-Seyday T. Qenawy, Ahmed M. Elshewey, Marwa Eed

Regarding the potato market, pricing fluctuations are a significant factor, and unfortunately, they cause many issues for producers and consumers. It happens to result in food insecurity and economic instability. This study brings in an advanced LSTM-RNN model built to predict potato prices, which might alleviate the mentioned challenges. We gathered a historical potato price database and other economic variables, normalized by the Z-score normalization method to ensure all the data was consistent and credible. The model’s effectiveness was benchmarked against five traditional machine learning models: we used K-nearest neighbor, random forest, support vector regressor, linear regression, and gradient boosting regressor to classify isolated households and determine their socioeconomic status. The empirical data implied that our proposed LSTM-RNN model was more efficient than all comparison models, leading to an R2 value of 0.98. The paper not only substantiates the plausibility of applying deep learning to address the agricultural market prediction issue but also serves as a guideline noting the capabilities of the LSTM-RNN routine in improving the decision-making processes for the farmers participating in the sector. This model supports a sustainable food system and a balanced economy by bringing price stability integral to designing and implementing strategies to address food security.

关于马铃薯市场,价格波动是一个重要因素,不幸的是,它给生产者和消费者带来了许多问题。这将导致粮食不安全和经济不稳定。本研究引入了一个先进的 LSTM-RNN 模型来预测马铃薯价格,这可能会缓解上述挑战。我们收集了历史马铃薯价格数据库和其他经济变量,并通过Z-score归一化方法进行归一化处理,以确保所有数据的一致性和可信度。我们使用 K 最近邻、随机森林、支持向量回归、线性回归和梯度提升回归等五种传统机器学习模型来对孤立家庭进行分类,并确定其社会经济地位。实证数据表明,我们提出的 LSTM-RNN 模型比所有比较模型都更有效,R2 值达到 0.98。本文不仅证实了应用深度学习解决农业市场预测问题的合理性,还指出了 LSTM-RNN 在改善参与该行业的农民的决策过程方面的能力。该模型通过将价格稳定作为设计和实施粮食安全战略的组成部分,支持可持续的粮食系统和平衡的经济。
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引用次数: 0
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Potato Research
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