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Characterizing Optimal Allocations in Quantile-Based Risk Sharing 基于分位数的风险分担的最优分配特征
Pub Date : 2019-01-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3173503
Ruodu Wang, Yunran Wei
Abstract Unlike classic risk sharing problems based on expected utilities or convex risk measures, quantile-based risk sharing problems exhibit two special features. First, quantile-based risk measures (such as the Value-at-Risk) are often not convex, and second, they ignore some part of the distribution of the risk. These features create technical challenges in establishing a full characterization of optimal allocations, a question left unanswered in the literature. In this paper, we address the issues on the existence and the characterization of (Pareto-)optimal allocations in risk sharing problems for the Range-Value-at-Risk family. It turns out that negative dependence, mutual exclusivity in particular, plays an important role in the optimal allocations, in contrast to positive dependence appearing in classic risk sharing problems. As a by-product of our main finding, we obtain some results on the optimization of the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and the Expected Shortfall, as well as a new result on the inf-convolution of VaR and a general distortion risk measure.
与基于期望效用或凸风险度量的经典风险分担问题不同,基于分位数的风险分担问题表现出两个特殊的特征。首先,基于分位数的风险度量(例如风险价值)通常不是凸的,其次,它们忽略了风险分布的某些部分。这些特征在建立最佳分配的完整特征方面带来了技术挑战,这是一个在文献中未得到回答的问题。本文研究了范围-风险值族风险分担问题中(Pareto-)最优分配的存在性和特征。结果表明,与经典风险分担问题中出现的正依赖相比,负依赖尤其是互斥性在最优配置中起着重要作用。作为我们的主要发现的副产品,我们得到了一些关于风险价值(VaR)和预期不足的优化结果,以及关于VaR的内卷积和一般失真风险度量的新结果。
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引用次数: 13
Estimation of Value-at-Risk for Conduct Risk Losses Using Pseudo-Marginal Markov Chain Monte Carlo 用伪边际马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗估计行为风险损失的风险值
Pub Date : 2018-11-26 DOI: 10.21314/jop.2019.232
P. Mitic, Jiaqiao Hu
We propose a model for conduct risk losses, in which conduct risk losses are characterized by having a small number of extremely large losses (perhaps only one) with more numerous smaller losses. It is assumed that the largest loss is actually a provision from which payments to customers are made periodically as required. We use the pseudo-marginal (PM) Markov chain Monte Carlo method to decompose the largest loss into smaller partitions in order to estimate 99.9% value-at-risk. The partitioning is done in a way that makes no assumption about the size of the partitions. The advantages and problems of using this method are discussed. The PM procedures were run on several representative data sets. The results indicate that, in cases where using approaches such as calculating a Monte Carlo-derived loss distribution yields a result that is not consistent with the risk profile expressed by the data, using the PM method yields results that have the required consistency.
我们提出了一个行为风险损失模型,其中行为风险损失的特征是具有少量的极大损失(可能只有一个)和更多的较小损失。假定最大的损失实际上是按要求定期向客户付款的准备金。我们使用伪边际(PM)马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗方法将最大损失分解为较小的分区,以估计99.9%的风险值。分区是在不假设分区大小的情况下进行的。讨论了该方法的优点和存在的问题。PM过程在几个有代表性的数据集上运行。结果表明,在使用计算蒙特卡罗导出的损失分布等方法产生与数据表示的风险概况不一致的结果的情况下,使用PM方法产生具有所需一致性的结果。
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引用次数: 1
Model-Free Computation of Risk Contributions in Credit Portfolios 信贷组合中风险贡献的无模型计算
Pub Date : 2018-10-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3273894
Álvaro Leitao, L. Ortiz-Gracia
Abstract In this work, we propose a non-parametric density estimation technique for measuring the risk in a credit portfolio, aiming at efficiently computing the marginal risk contributions. The novel method is based on wavelets, and we derive closed-form expressions to calculate the Value-at-Risk (VaR), the Expected Shortfall (ES) as well as the individual risk contributions to VaR (VaRC) and ES (ESC). We consider the multi-factor Gaussian and t-copula models for driving the defaults. The results obtained along the numerical experiments show the impressive accuracy and speed of this method when compared with crude Monte Carlo simulation. The presented methodology applies in the same manner regardless of the used model, and the computational performance is invariant under a considerable change in the dimension of the selected model. The speed-up with respect to the classical Monte Carlo approach ranges from twenty-five to one-thousand depending on the used model.
摘要本文提出了一种非参数密度估计技术,用于信贷组合的风险度量,旨在有效地计算边际风险贡献。该方法基于小波,推导出风险值(VaR)、预期差额(ES)以及个体风险对VaR (VaRC)和ES (ESC)的贡献的封闭表达式。我们考虑多因素高斯和t-copula模型来驱动默认值。数值实验结果表明,与原始蒙特卡罗模拟相比,该方法具有较高的精度和速度。无论使用哪种模型,所提出的方法都以相同的方式适用,并且在所选模型的维度发生相当大的变化时,计算性能是不变的。相对于经典蒙特卡罗方法的加速范围从25到1000,取决于所使用的模型。
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引用次数: 3
Equivalent Distortion Risk Measures on Moment Spaces 矩空间上的等效畸变风险测度
Pub Date : 2018-10-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3175936
D. Cornilly, S. Vanduffel
Abstract We show that maximizing distortion risk measures over the set of distributions with given mean is equivalent to maximizing their concave counterpart. In the case of Value-at-Risk and Tail Value-at-Risk the equivalence also holds when adding information on higher moments.
摘要我们证明了在给定均值的分布集合上最大化失真风险度量等价于最大化它们的凹对应。在风险价值和尾部风险价值的情况下,当在更高的矩上添加信息时,等效性也成立。
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引用次数: 1
Value-at-Risk Prediction Using Option-Implied Risk Measures 使用期权隐含风险措施预测风险价值
Pub Date : 2018-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3279398
Kai Schindelhauer, Chen Zhou
This paper investigates the prediction of Value-at-Risk (VaR) using option-implied information obtained by the maximum entropy method. The maximum entropy method provides an estimate of the risk-neutral distribution based on option prices. Besides commonly used implied volatility, we obtain implied skewness, kurtosis and quantile from the estimated risk-neutral distribution. We find that using the implied volatility and implied quantile as explanatory variables significantly outperforms considered benchmarks in predicting the VaR, including the commonly used GARCH(1,1)-model. This holds for all considered VaR prediction models and VaR probability levels. Overall, a simple quantile regression model performs best for all considered VaR probability levels and forecast horizons.
本文研究了利用最大熵法获得的期权隐含信息对风险价值(VaR)的预测。最大熵法提供了基于期权价格的风险中性分布估计。除了常用的隐含波动率外,我们还从估计的风险中性分布中得到隐含偏度、峰度和分位数。我们发现,使用隐含波动率和隐含分位数作为解释变量,在预测VaR方面明显优于考虑的基准,包括常用的GARCH(1,1)模型。这适用于所有考虑的VaR预测模型和VaR概率水平。总的来说,一个简单的分位数回归模型对所有考虑的VaR概率水平和预测范围表现最好。
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引用次数: 1
Measuring Long-Term Tail Risk: Evaluating the Performance of the Square-Root-of-Time Rule 测量长期尾部风险:评估时间平方根规则的性能
Pub Date : 2018-03-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3374288
Jying‐Nan Wang, Jiangze Du, Yuan‐Teng Hsu
This paper focuses on risk over long time horizons and within extreme percentiles, which have attracted considerable recent interest in numerous subfields of finance. Value at risk (VaR) aggregates several components of asset risk into a single quantitative measurement and is commonly used in tail risk management. Due to realistic data limits, many practitioners might use the square-root-of-time rule (SRTR) to compute long-term VaR. However, serial dependence and heavy-tailedness can bias the SRTR. This paper addresses two deficiencies of the study by Wang et al. (2011), who propose the modified-SRTR (MSRTR) to partially correct the serial dependence and use subsampling estimation as the benchmark to verify the performance of MSRTR. First, we investigate the validity of the subsampling approach through numerical simulations. Second, to reduce the heavy-tailedness bias, we propose a new MSRTR approach (MSRTR∗) in light of the Central Limit Theorem (CLT). In the empirical study, 28 country-level exchange-traded funds (ETFs) from 2010 to 2015 are considered to estimate the 30-day VaR. After modifying both serial dependence and heavy-tailedness, our approach reduces the bias from 26.46% to 5.97%, on average, compared to the SRTR. We also provide a backtesting analysis to verify the robustness of the MSRTR∗. This new approach should be considered when estimating long-term VaR using short-term VaR.
本文关注的是长期和极端百分位数范围内的风险,这些风险最近在金融的许多子领域引起了相当大的兴趣。风险价值(VaR)将资产风险的几个组成部分汇总为一个单一的定量度量,通常用于尾部风险管理。由于现实的数据限制,许多从业者可能会使用时间平方根规则(SRTR)来计算长期VaR。然而,序列依赖性和重尾性会使SRTR产生偏差。本文解决了Wang等人(2011)提出的修正srtr (MSRTR)部分修正序列相关性,并以子抽样估计为基准验证MSRTR性能的两个不足之处。首先,我们通过数值模拟验证了子抽样方法的有效性。其次,为了减少重尾偏倚,我们根据中心极限定理(CLT)提出了一种新的MSRTR方法(MSRTR *)。在实证研究中,我们选取了2010年至2015年的28只国家级交易所交易基金(etf)来估计30天VaR。在修正序列依赖和重尾性后,我们的方法与SRTR相比,平均将偏差从26.46%降低到5.97%。我们也提供回测分析来验证MSRTR *的稳健性。在使用短期风险价值估计长期风险价值时,应考虑这种新方法。
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引用次数: 3
Tail Dependence in Small Samples: From Theory to Practice 小样本的尾部依赖:从理论到实践
Pub Date : 2018-03-20 DOI: 10.21314/JOP.2017.196
Sophie Lavaud
Tail dependence is a probability-based concept meant to address the challenge of detecting and modeling the extreme comovements that can be observed in many real-life situations. Huge financial losses for a bank, floods and epidemics are obvious instances of such extreme comovements. Like extreme value theory in the univariate case, tail dependence depends on asymptotic theory. Therefore, the statistical assessment of tail dependence faces exactly the same problem as extreme value theory: a scarcity of extreme event observations. In the field of dependence modeling, copulas have stood out as a tool of singular importance. They are widely used to account for the various dependence structures that can be encountered in real life. In 2009, Genest et al provided a series of tests to achieve copula selection but showed that these tests were not greatly powerful. This is all the more true when it comes to selecting a copula where tail dependence is crucial. In this paper, we suggest the use of tail indexes in order to detect the presence of tail dependence in a given data set and thus improve the process of selecting a copula. Because tail dependence often goes with data scarcity, we focus on this specific issue through an application to operational losses in the banking industry and propose a way to apply the benefits from theory in practice, while being conscious of the boundaries of such a notion.
尾巴依赖是一个基于概率的概念,旨在解决在许多现实生活中可以观察到的极端运动的检测和建模的挑战。银行的巨额财务损失、洪水和流行病都是这种极端波动的明显例子。与单变量情况下的极值理论一样,尾依赖依赖于渐近理论。因此,尾部相关性的统计评估面临着与极值理论完全相同的问题:极端事件观测的稀缺性。在依赖建模领域,copula作为一种非常重要的工具脱颖而出。它们被广泛用于解释现实生活中可能遇到的各种依赖结构。2009年,Genest等人提供了一系列测试来实现交配体选择,但表明这些测试不是很有效。在选择尾相关性至关重要的联结时更是如此。在本文中,我们建议使用尾部索引来检测给定数据集中是否存在尾部依赖,从而改进选择copula的过程。由于尾部依赖通常伴随着数据稀缺性,因此我们通过应用于银行业的运营损失来关注这一特定问题,并提出一种将理论优势应用于实践的方法,同时意识到这种概念的界限。
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引用次数: 1
Optimal Reinsurance with Multiple Reinsurers: Competitive Pricing and Coalition Stability 多再保险人的最优再保险:竞争定价与联盟稳定性
Pub Date : 2018-01-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3143224
T. Boonen, K. S. Tan, S. Zhuang
We study economic pricing of reinsurance contracts via competition of an insurer with multiple reinsurers. All firms are endowed with distortion risk measures or expected exponential utilities. We require that contracts are Pareto optimal, individually rational, and satisfy a competition constraint that we call coalition stability. Indemnities are characterized by imposing Pareto optimality, as studied in the literature. In this paper, we characterize the corresponding premiums. There is a gain for the insurer due to the competition constraint. When the firms use distortion risk measures, this constraint yields stability for subcoalitions, which is a condition akin to the core in cooperative game theory. We show this gain for the insurer in closed form. Then, we derive that the premium is represented by a distortion premium function. If the firms use expected exponential utilities, the premium is represented by an exponential premium. We illustrate this premium function with the Mean Conditional Value-at-Risk.
本文研究了一个再保险公司与多个再保险公司竞争时再保险合同的经济定价问题。所有企业都被赋予了扭曲风险度量或预期指数效用。我们要求契约是帕累托最优的,个体理性的,并且满足我们称之为联盟稳定性的竞争约束。正如文献中所研究的那样,赔偿的特点是强加帕累托最优。在本文中,我们描述了相应的保费。由于竞争约束,保险公司获得了收益。当企业使用扭曲风险度量时,这种约束产生了子联盟的稳定性,这是一个类似于合作博弈论核心的条件。我们以封闭形式为保险公司显示这一收益。然后,我们推导出溢价由失真溢价函数表示。如果公司使用预期指数效用,则溢价用指数溢价表示。我们用平均条件风险值来说明这个溢价函数。
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引用次数: 8
Information Risk and the Cost of Equity Capital Revisited: Evidence from the U.S. Property-Casualty Insurance Industry 信息风险与股权资本成本的再考察:来自美国财产意外保险行业的证据
Pub Date : 2017-09-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3045472
Hua Chen, Yingrui Lu, Mary A. Weiss
This paper revisits the relationship between information risk and the cost of equity capital in the U.S. property-casualty (P/C) insurance industry. Eckles, Halek and Zhang (2014) find that information risk has no effect on the cost of equity using a sample of U.S. P/C insurers. Following their approach, we decompose information risk into innate and discretionary components. We find that innate information risk affects the cost of equity capital through two opposing channels. On the one hand, innate information risk directly increases an insurer’s cost of equity capital by increasing investors’ assessment of the riskiness of the insurer’s future cash flows. On the other hand, innate information risk indirectly decreases the insurer’s cost of equity capital by changing its production so that the assessed riskiness of the firm’s future cash flows are reduced. This (negative) indirect effect depends on factors that influence the insurer’s underwriting decisions. Our empirical results provide supporting evidence for a significant, positive direct effect of innate information risk, while the magnitude of the (negative) indirect effect increases with the insurer’s proportion of long-tail business and decreases with its affiliated reinsurance usage. As to the impact of discretionary information risk, our results are mixed. We also find that, on average, the overall effect of information risk on the cost of equity capital for property-casualty insurers is significant and negative.
本文重新审视了美国财险行业的信息风险与股权资本成本之间的关系。Eckles、Halek和Zhang(2014)使用美国P/C保险公司的样本发现,信息风险对股权成本没有影响。按照他们的方法,我们将信息风险分解为固有的和可自由支配的组件。我们发现,先天信息风险通过两个相反的渠道影响权益资本成本。一方面,先天信息风险通过增加投资者对保险公司未来现金流风险的评估,直接增加了保险公司的权益资本成本。另一方面,先天信息风险通过改变权益资本的生产,间接降低了保险公司的权益资本成本,从而降低了公司未来现金流量的评估风险。这种(负面)间接影响取决于影响保险人承保决策的因素。实证结果表明,先天信息风险具有显著的正向直接效应,而间接(负)效应的大小则随保险公司长尾业务比例的增加而增大,随其关联再保险的使用而减小。至于可自由支配信息风险的影响,我们的结果喜忧参半。我们还发现,平均而言,信息风险对财险公司股权资本成本的总体影响显著且为负。
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引用次数: 4
Addressing Probationary Period within a Competing Risks Survival Model for Retail Mortgage Loss Given Default 考虑违约情况下零售抵押贷款损失的竞争风险生存模型中的试用期问题
Pub Date : 2017-08-21 DOI: 10.21314/JCR.2017.228
R. Wood, David Powell
This paper builds on the established two-stage modeling framework for retail mortgages in which loss given default is computed as the product of property possession given default probability and loss given possession. In deriving the former, previous studies have suffered from a lack of clarity in their definitions of the post default outcomes of “cure” (no loss) and “possession” (some loss). The present study remedies this through the use of competing risks survival analysis, where to cure requires completion of a probationary period in which accounts return to nondefault status only when the ability to make repayments is demonstrated for a certain number of consecutive months (a recent regulatory requirement of the European Banking Authority). For loss given possession the distribution of survival time until this event can be conveniently used to appreciate the discounting of future receivables from property sale.
本文建立在已建立的零售抵押贷款两阶段建模框架的基础上,其中违约损失计算为给定违约概率的财产占有与给定占有的损失的乘积。在推导前者时,之前的研究对违约后的结果“治愈”(没有损失)和“占有”(有一些损失)的定义缺乏明确。本研究通过使用竞争风险生存分析来解决这一问题,其中解决问题需要完成一个试用期,只有在连续几个月证明有能力偿还时,账户才能恢复到非违约状态(欧洲银行管理局最近的监管要求)。对于占有损失,在此事件发生之前的生存时间分配可以方便地用于对出售财产的未来应收账款的贴现进行增值。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
ERN: Value-at-Risk (Topic)
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