Sinan Gokkaya, Xi Liu, V. Pool, Feixue Xie, Jinfan Zhang
Combining novel data on analyst employment history and mutual fund commission payments, we show that client funds generate higher returns on stocks for which they have access to research by industry expert analysts. The outperformance is greater when funds are more important clients and cannot be attributed to tipping. Client funds place modestly higher weights on stocks covered by industry expert analysts and allocate more commissions to brokers providing such coverage. For identification, we exploit exogenous analyst coverage disruptions. Our findings contribute to the debate on whether mutual funds obtain any investment value from access to analysts through the soft-dollar arrangement.
{"title":"Is There Investment Value in the Soft-Dollar Arrangement? Evidence from Mutual Funds","authors":"Sinan Gokkaya, Xi Liu, V. Pool, Feixue Xie, Jinfan Zhang","doi":"10.1093/rfs/hhad010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhad010","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Combining novel data on analyst employment history and mutual fund commission payments, we show that client funds generate higher returns on stocks for which they have access to research by industry expert analysts. The outperformance is greater when funds are more important clients and cannot be attributed to tipping. Client funds place modestly higher weights on stocks covered by industry expert analysts and allocate more commissions to brokers providing such coverage. For identification, we exploit exogenous analyst coverage disruptions. Our findings contribute to the debate on whether mutual funds obtain any investment value from access to analysts through the soft-dollar arrangement.","PeriodicalId":21124,"journal":{"name":"Review of Financial Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2023-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49237698","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mariano M Croce, Tatyana Marchuk, Christian Schlag
Abstract In this paper, we consider conditional measures of lead-lag relations between aggregate growth and industry-level cash flow growth in the United States. Our results show that firms in leading industries pay an average annualized return 3.6$%$ higher than that of firms in lagging industries. Using both time-series and cross-sectional tests, we estimate an annual pure timing premium ranging from 1.2$%$ to 1.7$%$. This finding can be rationalized in a model in which (a) agents price growth news shocks, and (b) leading industries provide valuable resolution of uncertainty about the growth prospects of lagging industries. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.
{"title":"The Leading Premium","authors":"Mariano M Croce, Tatyana Marchuk, Christian Schlag","doi":"10.1093/rfs/hhad009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhad009","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In this paper, we consider conditional measures of lead-lag relations between aggregate growth and industry-level cash flow growth in the United States. Our results show that firms in leading industries pay an average annualized return 3.6$%$ higher than that of firms in lagging industries. Using both time-series and cross-sectional tests, we estimate an annual pure timing premium ranging from 1.2$%$ to 1.7$%$. This finding can be rationalized in a model in which (a) agents price growth news shocks, and (b) leading industries provide valuable resolution of uncertainty about the growth prospects of lagging industries. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.","PeriodicalId":21124,"journal":{"name":"Review of Financial Studies","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136196876","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract For a firm that cannot raise external funds, cash on hand serves as precautionary saving. We derive a closed-form expression for the target level of cash on hand in the presence of persistent cash flows. Contrary to conventional wisdom, a mean-preserving increase in the volatility of cash flow can decrease this target. Over the set of admissible parameter values, the average impact of volatility on the target is zero. Endogenous selection, reflecting termination of firms that run out of cash, leads to a positive average impact of volatility on the target level of cash, consistent with empirical findings.
{"title":"Precautionary Saving in a Financially Constrained Firm","authors":"Andrew B. Abel, Stavros Panageas","doi":"10.1093/rfs/hhad007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhad007","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract For a firm that cannot raise external funds, cash on hand serves as precautionary saving. We derive a closed-form expression for the target level of cash on hand in the presence of persistent cash flows. Contrary to conventional wisdom, a mean-preserving increase in the volatility of cash flow can decrease this target. Over the set of admissible parameter values, the average impact of volatility on the target is zero. Endogenous selection, reflecting termination of firms that run out of cash, leads to a positive average impact of volatility on the target level of cash, consistent with empirical findings.","PeriodicalId":21124,"journal":{"name":"Review of Financial Studies","volume":"44 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135251561","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Robert D Arnott, Vitali Kalesnik, Juhani T Linnainmaa
Abstract Factors display strong cross-sectional momentum that subsumes momentum in industries and other portfolio characteristics. The profits of all these momentum strategies—based on factors, industries, and other characteristics—significantly correlate with each other and therefore likely emanate from the same source. If factors display momentum, so will any set of portfolios with cross-sectional variation in factor loadings. Consistent with factors being at the root of momentum, we find that momentum in industry-neutral factors explains industry momentum, but industry momentum explains none of the factor momentum. Cross-sectional factor momentum concentrates in the first few highest-eigenvalue factors and is distinct from time-series factor momentum. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.
{"title":"Factor Momentum","authors":"Robert D Arnott, Vitali Kalesnik, Juhani T Linnainmaa","doi":"10.1093/rfs/hhad006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhad006","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Factors display strong cross-sectional momentum that subsumes momentum in industries and other portfolio characteristics. The profits of all these momentum strategies—based on factors, industries, and other characteristics—significantly correlate with each other and therefore likely emanate from the same source. If factors display momentum, so will any set of portfolios with cross-sectional variation in factor loadings. Consistent with factors being at the root of momentum, we find that momentum in industry-neutral factors explains industry momentum, but industry momentum explains none of the factor momentum. Cross-sectional factor momentum concentrates in the first few highest-eigenvalue factors and is distinct from time-series factor momentum. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.","PeriodicalId":21124,"journal":{"name":"Review of Financial Studies","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135594416","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract The strength of the U.S. dollar has attributes of a barometer of dollar credit conditions, with a stronger dollar associated with tighter dollar credit conditions. We find that following dollar appreciation, exporters that are more reliant on dollar-funded bank credit suffer a greater decline in credit and slowdown in exports, including those exporting to the United States. Our findings shed light on the role of the U.S. dollar in the interaction between financial globalization and international trade and show a novel channel of exchange rate transmission that goes in the opposite direction to the competitiveness channel. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.
{"title":"Dollar and Exports","authors":"Valentina Bruno, Hyun Song Shin","doi":"10.1093/rfs/hhad005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhad005","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The strength of the U.S. dollar has attributes of a barometer of dollar credit conditions, with a stronger dollar associated with tighter dollar credit conditions. We find that following dollar appreciation, exporters that are more reliant on dollar-funded bank credit suffer a greater decline in credit and slowdown in exports, including those exporting to the United States. Our findings shed light on the role of the U.S. dollar in the interaction between financial globalization and international trade and show a novel channel of exchange rate transmission that goes in the opposite direction to the competitiveness channel. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.","PeriodicalId":21124,"journal":{"name":"Review of Financial Studies","volume":"78 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135898653","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Using novel merger valuation data, we show that firms selected by investment banks as “comparable peers” are more than twice as likely to later become takeover targets themselves compared to matched control firms. Peer firms not subsequently acquired attract more institutional ownership and analyst coverage, deliver strong operating performance, reduce investments, and increase payouts. Investors are inattentive, though, to peer identification at the time of merger filings’ public disclosure. A portfolio that longs peers and shorts controls earns up to 15.6$%$ alpha annually, which mainly comes from the long leg and is difficult to explain by short-sale constraints. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.
{"title":"Neglected Peers in Merger Valuations","authors":"Feng Guo, Tingting Liu, Danni Tu","doi":"10.1093/rfs/hhad004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhad004","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Using novel merger valuation data, we show that firms selected by investment banks as “comparable peers” are more than twice as likely to later become takeover targets themselves compared to matched control firms. Peer firms not subsequently acquired attract more institutional ownership and analyst coverage, deliver strong operating performance, reduce investments, and increase payouts. Investors are inattentive, though, to peer identification at the time of merger filings’ public disclosure. A portfolio that longs peers and shorts controls earns up to 15.6$%$ alpha annually, which mainly comes from the long leg and is difficult to explain by short-sale constraints. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.","PeriodicalId":21124,"journal":{"name":"Review of Financial Studies","volume":"120 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136082689","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Emirhan Ilhan, Philipp Krueger, Zacharias Sautner, Laura T Starks
Abstract Through a survey and analyses of observational data, we provide systematic evidence that institutional investors value and demand climate risk disclosures. The survey reveals the investors have a strong demand for climate risk disclosures, and many actively engage their portfolio firms for improvements. Empirical analyses of holdings data corroborate this evidence by showing a significantly positive association between climate-conscious institutional ownership and better firm-level climate risk disclosure. We establish further evidence of institutional investors’ influence on firms’ climate risk disclosures by examining a shock to the climate risk disclosure demand of French institutional investors (French Article 173). Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.
{"title":"Climate Risk Disclosure and Institutional Investors","authors":"Emirhan Ilhan, Philipp Krueger, Zacharias Sautner, Laura T Starks","doi":"10.1093/rfs/hhad002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhad002","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Through a survey and analyses of observational data, we provide systematic evidence that institutional investors value and demand climate risk disclosures. The survey reveals the investors have a strong demand for climate risk disclosures, and many actively engage their portfolio firms for improvements. Empirical analyses of holdings data corroborate this evidence by showing a significantly positive association between climate-conscious institutional ownership and better firm-level climate risk disclosure. We establish further evidence of institutional investors’ influence on firms’ climate risk disclosures by examining a shock to the climate risk disclosure demand of French institutional investors (French Article 173). Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.","PeriodicalId":21124,"journal":{"name":"Review of Financial Studies","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136377490","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Building on administrative data and machine-learning models, I develop a firm-specific measure of regulatory intensity: cost of compliance with all federal paperwork regulations. Regulatory intensity increases the cost of goods sold and overhead spending (SGA). It also incentivizes companies to reduce capital investment, hire fewer employees, and lobby more. The effects are particularly strong among financially constrained firms and those with irreversible investment opportunities, suggesting that regulation affects companies through budgetary pressures and heightened uncertainty. The findings highlight the real effects of regulation and the underlying mechanisms. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.
{"title":"Regulatory Intensity and Firm-Specific Exposure","authors":"Joseph Kalmenovitz","doi":"10.1093/rfs/hhad001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhad001","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Building on administrative data and machine-learning models, I develop a firm-specific measure of regulatory intensity: cost of compliance with all federal paperwork regulations. Regulatory intensity increases the cost of goods sold and overhead spending (SGA). It also incentivizes companies to reduce capital investment, hire fewer employees, and lobby more. The effects are particularly strong among financially constrained firms and those with irreversible investment opportunities, suggesting that regulation affects companies through budgetary pressures and heightened uncertainty. The findings highlight the real effects of regulation and the underlying mechanisms. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.","PeriodicalId":21124,"journal":{"name":"Review of Financial Studies","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134969541","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Emily A Gallagher, Stephen B Billings, Lowell R Ricketts
Abstract How does household exposure to a natural disaster affect higher education investments? Using variation in flooding from Hurricane Harvey (2017), we find that college-aged adults from flooded blocks in Houston are 7% less likely than counterparts to have student loans after Harvey, with larger effects in areas with more potential first-generation students. We find a similar relative decline in enrollment at more exposed Texas universities and colleges and a shift toward majors with higher expected earnings. Our results highlight a decrease in the quantity but an increase in the intensity of investments in human capital after the storm. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.
{"title":"Human Capital Investment after the Storm","authors":"Emily A Gallagher, Stephen B Billings, Lowell R Ricketts","doi":"10.1093/rfs/hhad003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhad003","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract How does household exposure to a natural disaster affect higher education investments? Using variation in flooding from Hurricane Harvey (2017), we find that college-aged adults from flooded blocks in Houston are 7% less likely than counterparts to have student loans after Harvey, with larger effects in areas with more potential first-generation students. We find a similar relative decline in enrollment at more exposed Texas universities and colleges and a shift toward majors with higher expected earnings. Our results highlight a decrease in the quantity but an increase in the intensity of investments in human capital after the storm. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.","PeriodicalId":21124,"journal":{"name":"Review of Financial Studies","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135367357","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
I analyze the inter vivo transfers and bequest decisions of 700,000 individuals during a period when the decision maker receives negative news regarding their life expectancy. The event that initiates the news is a health outcome. Expected mortality increases both the likelihood of transferring wealth to the next generation and the amount transferred. The size of the inter vivo transfer and bequest are positively related to the wealth of the parent and the severity of the diagnosis, regardless of diagnosis-specific demand for informal care. Using a structural life cycle model, I estimate the bequest parameters that are consistent with the causal effect estimates.
{"title":"How Large Are Bequest Motives? Estimates Based on Health Shocks","authors":"J. Kvaerner","doi":"10.1093/rfs/hhac093","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhac093","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 I analyze the inter vivo transfers and bequest decisions of 700,000 individuals during a period when the decision maker receives negative news regarding their life expectancy. The event that initiates the news is a health outcome. Expected mortality increases both the likelihood of transferring wealth to the next generation and the amount transferred. The size of the inter vivo transfer and bequest are positively related to the wealth of the parent and the severity of the diagnosis, regardless of diagnosis-specific demand for informal care. Using a structural life cycle model, I estimate the bequest parameters that are consistent with the causal effect estimates.","PeriodicalId":21124,"journal":{"name":"Review of Financial Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2022-12-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44147933","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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