Pub Date : 2021-09-13DOI: 10.1108/raf-10-2020-0311
Mahtab Athari, Atsuyuki Naka, Abdullah M. Noman
Purpose This paper aims to achieve two main objectives. The first is to introduce a suitable adjustment to the conventional dividend-price ratio, which would address econometric concerns and improve the predictability of the equity premium. The second is to compare the predictive performance of the newly introduced adjusted dividend-price ratio with the conventional dividend-price ratio. Design/methodology/approach The authors hypothesize that the adjusted dividend-price ratio will have better predictive power and forecasting quality for equity premium compared to the conventional dividend-price ratio. To test the hypothesis, the authors predict equity premium with both variables on a sample of 11 developed and emerging market indexes over a period spanning June 1995 to March 2017. To accommodate time variation in parameter values or structural breaks in the data, the authors conducted a fixed window rolling regressions using both variables. A variety of forecast techniques including magnitude and sign accuracy measures are applied to compare the performance of forecasts. Findings The adjusted dividend-price ratio is shown to be stationary and has both lower persistence and variability compared with the conventional dividend-price ratio. The authors find that the adjusted dividend-price ratio provides superior out-of-sample (OOS) performance compared to the conventional dividend-price ratio, for both size and sign accuracy, in forecasting equity premium for the majority of the countries in the sample. Research limitations/implications This paper introduces an easy-to-follow modification in the conventional dividend-price ratio that can be replicated by researchers and practitioners alike. However, the study has a limitation in that it does not capture the impact of dividend-paying firms within each index on the predictive ability of the adjusted dividend-price ratio. Practical implications The knowledge of equity premium predictability is important in implementing market-timing strategies and could be beneficial for portfolio and risk management. The newly introduced variable is easy to construct using widely available data without the need for complex econometric estimation. Investors can use this variable to predict equity premiums in international markets, both developed and emerging. The findings of this paper will be relevant to financial analysts, portfolio managers, investors and researchers in international finance. For example, by using the adjusted dividend-price ratio, investors would see up to 0.5% improvement in their OOS monthly forecasts of the equity premium. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first paper that proposes adjustment in the conventional dividend-price ratio based on the past observations of the most recent quarter. In this way, the paper offers fresh insight that dividend-price ratio is still useful to predict equity premium albeit, after some adjustment
{"title":"Predicting equity premium with adjusted dividend-price ratio: the USA and international evidence","authors":"Mahtab Athari, Atsuyuki Naka, Abdullah M. Noman","doi":"10.1108/raf-10-2020-0311","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/raf-10-2020-0311","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose This paper aims to achieve two main objectives. The first is to introduce a suitable adjustment to the conventional dividend-price ratio, which would address econometric concerns and improve the predictability of the equity premium. The second is to compare the predictive performance of the newly introduced adjusted dividend-price ratio with the conventional dividend-price ratio. Design/methodology/approach The authors hypothesize that the adjusted dividend-price ratio will have better predictive power and forecasting quality for equity premium compared to the conventional dividend-price ratio. To test the hypothesis, the authors predict equity premium with both variables on a sample of 11 developed and emerging market indexes over a period spanning June 1995 to March 2017. To accommodate time variation in parameter values or structural breaks in the data, the authors conducted a fixed window rolling regressions using both variables. A variety of forecast techniques including magnitude and sign accuracy measures are applied to compare the performance of forecasts. Findings The adjusted dividend-price ratio is shown to be stationary and has both lower persistence and variability compared with the conventional dividend-price ratio. The authors find that the adjusted dividend-price ratio provides superior out-of-sample (OOS) performance compared to the conventional dividend-price ratio, for both size and sign accuracy, in forecasting equity premium for the majority of the countries in the sample. Research limitations/implications This paper introduces an easy-to-follow modification in the conventional dividend-price ratio that can be replicated by researchers and practitioners alike. However, the study has a limitation in that it does not capture the impact of dividend-paying firms within each index on the predictive ability of the adjusted dividend-price ratio. Practical implications The knowledge of equity premium predictability is important in implementing market-timing strategies and could be beneficial for portfolio and risk management. The newly introduced variable is easy to construct using widely available data without the need for complex econometric estimation. Investors can use this variable to predict equity premiums in international markets, both developed and emerging. The findings of this paper will be relevant to financial analysts, portfolio managers, investors and researchers in international finance. For example, by using the adjusted dividend-price ratio, investors would see up to 0.5% improvement in their OOS monthly forecasts of the equity premium. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first paper that proposes adjustment in the conventional dividend-price ratio based on the past observations of the most recent quarter. In this way, the paper offers fresh insight that dividend-price ratio is still useful to predict equity premium albeit, after some adjustment","PeriodicalId":21152,"journal":{"name":"Review of Accounting and Finance","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2021-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49306877","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-09-09DOI: 10.1108/raf-06-2020-0151
Manish K. Bansal, Vivek Kumar
Purpose This study aims to investigate the impact of mandatory corporate social responsibility (CSR) spending legislation on the earnings management strategies of firms. Design/methodology/approach The authors use panel data regression models to analyze the data for this study. This study covers the post-legislation period, which spans over five years from the financial year ending March 2015 to the financial year ending March 2019. Findings The results show that firms manipulate accounting measures to avoid breaching the cut-off criteria for mandatory CSR. In particular, the results show that firms operating around the operating revenue threshold misclassify operating revenue as non-operating revenue. In contrast, firms operating around the net worth and net profit thresholds do downward real and accrual earnings management. These results are consistent with several robustness measures. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that examines the impact of mandatory CSR spending on earnings management.
{"title":"Forcing responsibility? Examining earnings management induced by mandatory corporate social responsibility: evidence from India","authors":"Manish K. Bansal, Vivek Kumar","doi":"10.1108/raf-06-2020-0151","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/raf-06-2020-0151","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This study aims to investigate the impact of mandatory corporate social responsibility (CSR) spending legislation on the earnings management strategies of firms.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000The authors use panel data regression models to analyze the data for this study. This study covers the post-legislation period, which spans over five years from the financial year ending March 2015 to the financial year ending March 2019.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The results show that firms manipulate accounting measures to avoid breaching the cut-off criteria for mandatory CSR. In particular, the results show that firms operating around the operating revenue threshold misclassify operating revenue as non-operating revenue. In contrast, firms operating around the net worth and net profit thresholds do downward real and accrual earnings management. These results are consistent with several robustness measures.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that examines the impact of mandatory CSR spending on earnings management.\u0000","PeriodicalId":21152,"journal":{"name":"Review of Accounting and Finance","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2021-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44636800","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-08-21DOI: 10.1108/raf-05-2020-0111
Jiaxin Liu, Dongliang Lei
Purpose This paper aims to examine the relation between managerial ability and stock price crash risk, conditional on managerial overconfidence. In addition, conditional on managerial overconfidence, the authors investigate the effect of managerial ability on firms’ choice of bad news hoarding channels, which result in a stock price crash. Design/methodology/approach Using a sample of 24,289 firm-years from companies listed on Compustat and CRSP from 1994 to 2018, the authors conduct panel regression analysis. Findings The authors find that managerial ability is positively associated with stock price crash risk only when managerial overconfidence is high. Furthermore, the authors find that managerial ability seems to exacerbate (attenuate) the bad news withholding by the overconfident managers using the earnings guidance (earnings management) channel. The authors find limited evidence that high-ability managers are likely to withhold bad news through the overinvestment channel and “other channels” when managers are overconfident. Finally, the authors find that the joint effect of managerial overconfidence and managerial ability on firms’ crash risk is more pronounced when there is a material weakness in firms’ internal controls, high investor belief heterogeneity and high information asymmetry. However, this effect appears to dissipate during the recent financial crisis in 2008. Originality/value This research reveals that managerial ability is costly to firms by engendering bad news hoardings and stock price crash risk when managers are overconfident. It also sheds light on how managerial overconfidence and managerial ability affect managers’ choice of bad news withholding channels and stock price crash risk. Finally, the paper is of practical value to the board of directors in selecting the prospective executives.
{"title":"Managerial ability and stock price crash risk – the role of managerial overconfidence","authors":"Jiaxin Liu, Dongliang Lei","doi":"10.1108/raf-05-2020-0111","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/raf-05-2020-0111","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This paper aims to examine the relation between managerial ability and stock price crash risk, conditional on managerial overconfidence. In addition, conditional on managerial overconfidence, the authors investigate the effect of managerial ability on firms’ choice of bad news hoarding channels, which result in a stock price crash.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000Using a sample of 24,289 firm-years from companies listed on Compustat and CRSP from 1994 to 2018, the authors conduct panel regression analysis.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The authors find that managerial ability is positively associated with stock price crash risk only when managerial overconfidence is high. Furthermore, the authors find that managerial ability seems to exacerbate (attenuate) the bad news withholding by the overconfident managers using the earnings guidance (earnings management) channel. The authors find limited evidence that high-ability managers are likely to withhold bad news through the overinvestment channel and “other channels” when managers are overconfident. Finally, the authors find that the joint effect of managerial overconfidence and managerial ability on firms’ crash risk is more pronounced when there is a material weakness in firms’ internal controls, high investor belief heterogeneity and high information asymmetry. However, this effect appears to dissipate during the recent financial crisis in 2008.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000This research reveals that managerial ability is costly to firms by engendering bad news hoardings and stock price crash risk when managers are overconfident. It also sheds light on how managerial overconfidence and managerial ability affect managers’ choice of bad news withholding channels and stock price crash risk. Finally, the paper is of practical value to the board of directors in selecting the prospective executives.\u0000","PeriodicalId":21152,"journal":{"name":"Review of Accounting and Finance","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2021-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43020757","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-07-29DOI: 10.1108/RAF-07-2020-0184
Xiaolin Qian, Lewis H. K. Tam
Purpose Proper empirical tests of the effect of blockholders’ monitoring incentives on corporate governance are scant in the literature because the relationship between ownership structure and enforcement of corporate governance mechanisms is bidirectional. This study aims to address the endogeneity issue by examining the effect of blockholding on executive turnover–performance sensitivity, using the split-share-structure (SSS) reform in China as an exogenous shock to blockholders’ monitoring incentives. Design/methodology/approach This study uses a logit model for estimating the change in executive turnover–performance sensitivity around the SSS reform. Sub-sample analysis is conducted to examine whether the impact of SSS reform on the turnover-performance sensitivity is stronger for firms with more contestable blockholders who might consider stock liquidity, risk sharing and diversification in their monitoring/trading decisions. Findings Top executive turnover, defined as CEO or board chair turnover, becomes less sensitive to firm operating performance after the reform, mainly for firms with contestable blockholders prior to the reform. Stock liquidity and blockholders’ demand for diversification can explain the impact of contestable blockholding. Moreover, blockholding is sensitive to firm operating performance after the reform but not before it. Originality/value With few exceptions, most studies in the blockholding literature focus on the effect of blockholder monitoring on firm value. Examining an exogenous shock to blockholding, this paper provides a set of new evidence for the impact of blockholding on executive turnover–performance sensitivity. The results call for more evidence of the impact of blockholding on executive turnover from other markets.
{"title":"Blockholders and corporate governance: evidence from China’s split-share-structure reform","authors":"Xiaolin Qian, Lewis H. K. Tam","doi":"10.1108/RAF-07-2020-0184","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/RAF-07-2020-0184","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000Proper empirical tests of the effect of blockholders’ monitoring incentives on corporate governance are scant in the literature because the relationship between ownership structure and enforcement of corporate governance mechanisms is bidirectional. This study aims to address the endogeneity issue by examining the effect of blockholding on executive turnover–performance sensitivity, using the split-share-structure (SSS) reform in China as an exogenous shock to blockholders’ monitoring incentives.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000This study uses a logit model for estimating the change in executive turnover–performance sensitivity around the SSS reform. Sub-sample analysis is conducted to examine whether the impact of SSS reform on the turnover-performance sensitivity is stronger for firms with more contestable blockholders who might consider stock liquidity, risk sharing and diversification in their monitoring/trading decisions.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000Top executive turnover, defined as CEO or board chair turnover, becomes less sensitive to firm operating performance after the reform, mainly for firms with contestable blockholders prior to the reform. Stock liquidity and blockholders’ demand for diversification can explain the impact of contestable blockholding. Moreover, blockholding is sensitive to firm operating performance after the reform but not before it.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000With few exceptions, most studies in the blockholding literature focus on the effect of blockholder monitoring on firm value. Examining an exogenous shock to blockholding, this paper provides a set of new evidence for the impact of blockholding on executive turnover–performance sensitivity. The results call for more evidence of the impact of blockholding on executive turnover from other markets.\u0000","PeriodicalId":21152,"journal":{"name":"Review of Accounting and Finance","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2021-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42674007","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-07-16DOI: 10.1108/RAF-04-2020-0102
Sedighe Alizadeh, Mohammad Nabi Shahiki Tash, Johannes K. Dreyer
Purpose This paper aims to study the impact of liquidity risk and transaction costs on stock pricing in Iran, a closed market operating under a financial embargo and compare the results with those of an important neighboring market, namely, Turkey. Design/methodology/approach This study follows Liu et al. (2016) and incorporates liquidity risk and transaction costs into the traditional consumption-based asset-pricing model (CCAPM) from 2009 to 2017. Effective transaction costs are estimated a la Hasbrouck (2009) and liquidity risk according to eight different criteria. Findings According to the results, both liquidity risk and transaction costs are higher in Iran, possibly due to the financial embargo. Thus, relative to Turkey, this paper should expect a higher increase in the CCAPM pricing performance in Iran when accounting for these two variables. The results are in line with this expectation and indicate that adjusting the CCAPM significantly increases its pricing performance in both countries, but relatively more in Iran. Originality/value This study compares liquidity risk and transaction costs in an economy under the extreme case of a financial embargo to an open yet in other important aspects similar economy from the same region.
{"title":"Liquidity risk, transaction costs and financial closedness: lessons from the Iranian and Turkish stock markets","authors":"Sedighe Alizadeh, Mohammad Nabi Shahiki Tash, Johannes K. Dreyer","doi":"10.1108/RAF-04-2020-0102","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/RAF-04-2020-0102","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This paper aims to study the impact of liquidity risk and transaction costs on stock pricing in Iran, a closed market operating under a financial embargo and compare the results with those of an important neighboring market, namely, Turkey.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000This study follows Liu et al. (2016) and incorporates liquidity risk and transaction costs into the traditional consumption-based asset-pricing model (CCAPM) from 2009 to 2017. Effective transaction costs are estimated a la Hasbrouck (2009) and liquidity risk according to eight different criteria.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000According to the results, both liquidity risk and transaction costs are higher in Iran, possibly due to the financial embargo. Thus, relative to Turkey, this paper should expect a higher increase in the CCAPM pricing performance in Iran when accounting for these two variables. The results are in line with this expectation and indicate that adjusting the CCAPM significantly increases its pricing performance in both countries, but relatively more in Iran.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000This study compares liquidity risk and transaction costs in an economy under the extreme case of a financial embargo to an open yet in other important aspects similar economy from the same region.\u0000","PeriodicalId":21152,"journal":{"name":"Review of Accounting and Finance","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2021-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46988636","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-07-16DOI: 10.1108/RAF-08-2020-0244
Pervaiz Alam
Purpose This study aims to examine the association between predictive accounting downside risk measures and changes in credit spreads. Building upon the earnings downside risk (EDR) measure developed in prior literature, this paper introduces cash flow downside risk (CFDR). Design/methodology/approach This study modifies an existing empirical framework (root lower partial moment) to calculate CFDR and applies it to a sample of firms between 2002 and 2013 for which credit default swap data are available. Findings After validating the measure, this study identifies a positive association between CFDR and changes in credit spreads. This paper further shows the association between CFDR and credit spread changes is stronger than that between EDR and credit spread changes. Financial stability moderates the relationship between CFDR and credit spreads. Originality/value This study proposes a novel measure of accounting downside risk, CFDR and demonstrates a negative association between this measure and future cash flow and a positive association between this measure and future credit spreads.
{"title":"Accounting downside risk measures and credit spreads","authors":"Pervaiz Alam","doi":"10.1108/RAF-08-2020-0244","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/RAF-08-2020-0244","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This study aims to examine the association between predictive accounting downside risk measures and changes in credit spreads. Building upon the earnings downside risk (EDR) measure developed in prior literature, this paper introduces cash flow downside risk (CFDR).\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000This study modifies an existing empirical framework (root lower partial moment) to calculate CFDR and applies it to a sample of firms between 2002 and 2013 for which credit default swap data are available.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000After validating the measure, this study identifies a positive association between CFDR and changes in credit spreads. This paper further shows the association between CFDR and credit spread changes is stronger than that between EDR and credit spread changes. Financial stability moderates the relationship between CFDR and credit spreads.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000This study proposes a novel measure of accounting downside risk, CFDR and demonstrates a negative association between this measure and future cash flow and a positive association between this measure and future credit spreads.\u0000","PeriodicalId":21152,"journal":{"name":"Review of Accounting and Finance","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2021-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45204592","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-07-15DOI: 10.1108/RAF-07-2020-0191
K. Kim, Yun W. Park
Purpose Existing studies show that firms may have an incentive to use share repurchases opportunistically, thereby taking advantage of market participants’ confirmation bias that share repurchase is a signal of undervaluation. This study aims to investigate whether signaling costs and accounting transparency can serve as tools to identify opportunistic share repurchases. Design/methodology/approach The authors measure signaling costs by using two share repurchase methods (direct and indirect share repurchase) with different share repurchase costs, and measure accounting transparency using the history of earnings timeliness. The authors further measure long-term performance following share repurchases using operating performance and stock returns. Lastly, the authors compare the long-term performances between the groups defined by share repurchase method and earnings timeliness level. Findings The authors find that indirect share repurchase firms with a history of poor earnings timeliness experience unfavorable long-term performance, while other share repurchase firms do not. This finding reinforces the view that some share repurchases may be driven by managerial opportunism. In particular, when firms with a history of poor earnings-reporting behavior choose a low-cost repurchase method, their share repurchases may be motivated by managerial opportunism. Originality/value The findings suggest that past earnings timeliness and the signaling costs of a repurchase together are useful predictors of false signaling. Moreover, they suggest that investors can – at least in part – predict opportunistic share repurchases by using signaling costs and accounting transparency.
{"title":"Long-term performance following share repurchase, signaling costs and accounting transparency: Korean evidence","authors":"K. Kim, Yun W. Park","doi":"10.1108/RAF-07-2020-0191","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/RAF-07-2020-0191","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000Existing studies show that firms may have an incentive to use share repurchases opportunistically, thereby taking advantage of market participants’ confirmation bias that share repurchase is a signal of undervaluation. This study aims to investigate whether signaling costs and accounting transparency can serve as tools to identify opportunistic share repurchases.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000The authors measure signaling costs by using two share repurchase methods (direct and indirect share repurchase) with different share repurchase costs, and measure accounting transparency using the history of earnings timeliness. The authors further measure long-term performance following share repurchases using operating performance and stock returns. Lastly, the authors compare the long-term performances between the groups defined by share repurchase method and earnings timeliness level.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The authors find that indirect share repurchase firms with a history of poor earnings timeliness experience unfavorable long-term performance, while other share repurchase firms do not. This finding reinforces the view that some share repurchases may be driven by managerial opportunism. In particular, when firms with a history of poor earnings-reporting behavior choose a low-cost repurchase method, their share repurchases may be motivated by managerial opportunism.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000The findings suggest that past earnings timeliness and the signaling costs of a repurchase together are useful predictors of false signaling. Moreover, they suggest that investors can – at least in part – predict opportunistic share repurchases by using signaling costs and accounting transparency.\u0000","PeriodicalId":21152,"journal":{"name":"Review of Accounting and Finance","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2021-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46321707","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-06-10DOI: 10.1108/RAF-04-2020-0105
H. Na
Purpose This paper aims to examine how a firm’s political party orientation (Republican or Democratic), which is measured as the composite index based on the political party leanings of top managers, affects bank loan contracts. This study also investigates how the political culture of local states has a significant impact on loan contracts. Design/methodology/approach This research uses various databases including the Loan Pricing Corporation’s DealScan database, financial covenant violation indicators based on the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings, firm bankruptcy filings and political culture index data to examine the impact of political orientation on the cost of debt. This paper also includes the state level of gun ownership and bachelor’s degrees to investigate how local political culture affects the loan contract. To control endogenous concerns, this paper uses an instrumental variable analysis. Findings Firms that have Republican-oriented political identities pay lower yield spreads for the main costs of debt including all-in-spread-drawn and all-in-spread-undrawn. This pattern is consistent with other fees of bank loans. This paper finds that an increase in conservative political policies toward Republican orientations is negatively associated with the cost of debt. The main findings also show that the political culture in the state where the headquarters of the borrowing firm are located plays an important role in bank loan contracts. Originality/value The findings in this paper provide evidence that a firm’s political party orientation significantly affects the loan contract terms in both pricing and non-pricing terms. To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study that shows the importance of political party identification on loan contracts by separating the sample into Republican, neutral and Democratic.
{"title":"Does corporate political party ideology matter? Evidence from bank loan contracts","authors":"H. Na","doi":"10.1108/RAF-04-2020-0105","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/RAF-04-2020-0105","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This paper aims to examine how a firm’s political party orientation (Republican or Democratic), which is measured as the composite index based on the political party leanings of top managers, affects bank loan contracts. This study also investigates how the political culture of local states has a significant impact on loan contracts.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000This research uses various databases including the Loan Pricing Corporation’s DealScan database, financial covenant violation indicators based on the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings, firm bankruptcy filings and political culture index data to examine the impact of political orientation on the cost of debt. This paper also includes the state level of gun ownership and bachelor’s degrees to investigate how local political culture affects the loan contract. To control endogenous concerns, this paper uses an instrumental variable analysis.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000Firms that have Republican-oriented political identities pay lower yield spreads for the main costs of debt including all-in-spread-drawn and all-in-spread-undrawn. This pattern is consistent with other fees of bank loans. This paper finds that an increase in conservative political policies toward Republican orientations is negatively associated with the cost of debt. The main findings also show that the political culture in the state where the headquarters of the borrowing firm are located plays an important role in bank loan contracts.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000The findings in this paper provide evidence that a firm’s political party orientation significantly affects the loan contract terms in both pricing and non-pricing terms. To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study that shows the importance of political party identification on loan contracts by separating the sample into Republican, neutral and Democratic.\u0000","PeriodicalId":21152,"journal":{"name":"Review of Accounting and Finance","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2021-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43242279","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-06-08DOI: 10.1108/RAF-04-2020-0083
E. Jones, Bing Xu, Konstantin Kamp
Purpose: This paper examines whether agency costs predict disciplinary takeover likelihood for UK listed companies between 1986 and 2015. Design/Methodology/Approach: Using survival analysis, our approach is to identify candidates for disciplinary takeover on the basis of Tobin’s Q (TQ), which is consistent with the approach advocated by Manne (1965). We then examine how indicators of agency costs affect takeover likelihood within the set of disciplinary candidates. Findings: We provide evidence of the effectiveness of Tobin’s Q, rather than excess return, in identifying disciplinary takeover candidates. Takeover hazard for disciplinary candidates is higher for companies with higher levels of asset utilization and sales growth in particular. Companies with stronger agency problems are relatively less susceptible to disciplinary takeover. Practical Implications: Given the UK context of our study, where anti-takeover provisions are disallowed, and when compared to findings of US studies, our results imply some support for the effectiveness of an open merger policy. Originality/Value: While the connection between takeover likelihood and the market for corporate control has been made in previous studies, our study adopts a more explicit agency theory framework than previous studies of takeover likelihood. A key component of our contribution follows from differentiating candidates for disciplinary takeovers from other forms of M&A.
{"title":"Agency costs in the market for corporate control: evidence from UK takeovers","authors":"E. Jones, Bing Xu, Konstantin Kamp","doi":"10.1108/RAF-04-2020-0083","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/RAF-04-2020-0083","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose: This paper examines whether agency costs predict disciplinary takeover likelihood for UK listed companies between 1986 and 2015. Design/Methodology/Approach: Using survival analysis, our approach is to identify candidates for disciplinary takeover on the basis of Tobin’s Q (TQ), which is consistent with the approach advocated by Manne (1965). We then examine how indicators of agency costs affect takeover likelihood within the set of disciplinary candidates. Findings: We provide evidence of the effectiveness of Tobin’s Q, rather than excess return, in identifying disciplinary takeover candidates. Takeover hazard for disciplinary candidates is higher for companies with higher levels of asset utilization and sales growth in particular. Companies with stronger agency problems are relatively less susceptible to disciplinary takeover. Practical Implications: Given the UK context of our study, where anti-takeover provisions are disallowed, and when compared to findings of US studies, our results imply some support for the effectiveness of an open merger policy. Originality/Value: While the connection between takeover likelihood and the market for corporate control has been made in previous studies, our study adopts a more explicit agency theory framework than previous studies of takeover likelihood. A key component of our contribution follows from differentiating candidates for disciplinary takeovers from other forms of M&A.","PeriodicalId":21152,"journal":{"name":"Review of Accounting and Finance","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2021-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46714174","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-03-29DOI: 10.1108/RAF-06-2020-0171
Xiaoyu Chen, Bin Li, A. Worthington
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationships between the higher moments of returns (realized skewness and kurtosis) and subsequent returns at the industry level, with a focus on both empirical predictability and practical application via trading strategies. Design/methodology/approach Daily returns for 48 US industries over the period 1970–2019 from Kenneth French’s data library are used to calculate the higher moments and to construct short- and medium-term single-sort trading strategies. The analysis adjusts returns for common risk factors (market, size, value, investment, profitability and illiquidity) to confirm whether conventional asset pricing models can capture these relationships. Findings Past skewness positively relates to subsequent industry returns and this relationship is unexplained by common risk factors. There is also a time-varying effect in which the predictive role of skewness is much stronger over business cycle expansions than recessions, a result consistent with varying investor optimism. However, there is no significant relationship between kurtosis and subsequent industry returns. The analysis confirms robustness using both value- and equal-weighted returns. Research limitations/implications The calculation of realized moments conventionally uses high-frequency intra-day data, regrettably unavailable for industries. In addition, the chosen portfolio-sorting method may omit some information, as it compares only average group returns. Nonetheless, the close relationship between skewness and future returns at the industry level suggests variations in returns unexplained by common risk factors. This enriches knowledge of market anomalies and questions yet again weak-form market efficiency and the validity of conventional asset pricing models. One suggestion is that it is possible to significantly improve the existing multi-factor asset pricing models by including industry skewness as a risk factor. Practical implications Given the relationship between skewness and future returns at the industry level, investors may predict subsequent industry returns to select better-performing funds. They may even construct trading strategies based on return distributions that would generate abnormal returns. Further, as the evaluation of individual stocks also contains industry information, and stocks in industries with better performance earn higher returns, risks related to industry return distributions can also shed light on individual stock picking. Originality/value While there is abundant evidence of the relationships between higher moments and future returns at the firm level, there is little at the industry level. Further, by testing whether there is time variation in the relationship between industry higher moments and future returns, the paper yields novel evidence concerning the asymmetric effect of stock return predictability over business cycles. Finally, the analysis supplements firm-level resul
{"title":"Higher moments and US industry returns: realized skewness and kurtosis","authors":"Xiaoyu Chen, Bin Li, A. Worthington","doi":"10.1108/RAF-06-2020-0171","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/RAF-06-2020-0171","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationships between the higher moments of returns (realized skewness and kurtosis) and subsequent returns at the industry level, with a focus on both empirical predictability and practical application via trading strategies.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000Daily returns for 48 US industries over the period 1970–2019 from Kenneth French’s data library are used to calculate the higher moments and to construct short- and medium-term single-sort trading strategies. The analysis adjusts returns for common risk factors (market, size, value, investment, profitability and illiquidity) to confirm whether conventional asset pricing models can capture these relationships.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000Past skewness positively relates to subsequent industry returns and this relationship is unexplained by common risk factors. There is also a time-varying effect in which the predictive role of skewness is much stronger over business cycle expansions than recessions, a result consistent with varying investor optimism. However, there is no significant relationship between kurtosis and subsequent industry returns. The analysis confirms robustness using both value- and equal-weighted returns.\u0000\u0000\u0000Research limitations/implications\u0000The calculation of realized moments conventionally uses high-frequency intra-day data, regrettably unavailable for industries. In addition, the chosen portfolio-sorting method may omit some information, as it compares only average group returns. Nonetheless, the close relationship between skewness and future returns at the industry level suggests variations in returns unexplained by common risk factors. This enriches knowledge of market anomalies and questions yet again weak-form market efficiency and the validity of conventional asset pricing models. One suggestion is that it is possible to significantly improve the existing multi-factor asset pricing models by including industry skewness as a risk factor.\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000Given the relationship between skewness and future returns at the industry level, investors may predict subsequent industry returns to select better-performing funds. They may even construct trading strategies based on return distributions that would generate abnormal returns. Further, as the evaluation of individual stocks also contains industry information, and stocks in industries with better performance earn higher returns, risks related to industry return distributions can also shed light on individual stock picking.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000While there is abundant evidence of the relationships between higher moments and future returns at the firm level, there is little at the industry level. Further, by testing whether there is time variation in the relationship between industry higher moments and future returns, the paper yields novel evidence concerning the asymmetric effect of stock return predictability over business cycles. Finally, the analysis supplements firm-level resul","PeriodicalId":21152,"journal":{"name":"Review of Accounting and Finance","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2021-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47776701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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