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Elucidating the Impact of behavioral biases in Pakistan Stock Market: Moderating Impact of Financial Literacy 巴基斯坦股票市场行为偏差的影响:金融知识的调节作用
Pub Date : 2021-08-31 DOI: 10.29145/jqm.52.06
Muhammad H. Rasheed, Amir Rafique, Usama Kalim, Faid Gul
The current study focuses on some of the most commonly relied upon biases in decision making. The study aimed at understanding the influence of herding, overconfidence, anchoring, and loss aversion on the decision-making style of investor besides it also investigates the role of financial literacy, since the traditional paradigm of finance is of the view that the knowledge of finance is directly associated with the degree of irrational outcomes. To explore this linkage data from investors trading at Lahore, Karachi, and Islamabad is gathered. Structural equation modeling is used for establishing the proposed associations. The results revealed that behavioral biases significantly impact the decision-making of investors.  The results of moderation analysis presented that financial literacy plays a major role in de-biasing decision making. These findings can be extremely useful for investors, policymakers, and investment professionals. Not only to make optimal decision-making but also by providing a deeper understanding of the daily life stock market behavior.
目前的研究集中在决策中最常依赖的一些偏见。本研究旨在了解羊群、过度自信、锚定和损失厌恶对投资者决策风格的影响,同时也调查了金融素养的作用,因为传统的金融范式认为金融知识与非理性结果的程度直接相关。为了探索这种联系,我们收集了在拉合尔、卡拉奇和伊斯兰堡交易的投资者的数据。结构方程模型用于建立所提出的关联。结果表明,行为偏差显著影响投资者的决策。适度分析结果显示,财务素养在决策去偏化中起主要作用。这些发现对投资者、政策制定者和投资专业人士非常有用。不仅可以做出最优决策,还可以通过提供对日常股市行为的更深入的了解。
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引用次数: 0
Thinking of Going Canting Again: A Study of Revisit Intention to Chinese Restaurants 再去一次的思考:中餐馆回访意向研究
Pub Date : 2021-08-30 DOI: 10.29145/2020/jqm/52/02
Syed Muhammad Fahim, A. Rehman, Saima Munawar, Sardar Muhammad Nawaz
This study measures the impact of the fairness of price, quality of food, and quality of service on revisit intention of Chinese restaurants' consumers, mediated by consumer satisfaction. Purposive sampling technique is used for data collection along with snowball sampling technique. Two hundred questionnaires were answered through online Google forms. The analysis of the collected data is executed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM). The descriptive statistics are analyzed by SPSS software, and the influential statistics are analyzed by Smart PLS software. The analyses' findings concluded that food quality has a highly noticeable impact on consumers' revisit intention. Quality of service and Fairness of price also has a prominent effect on the consumer's revisit intention. Limitations and recommendations are also mentioned at the end of the study.
本研究考察了价格公平、食品质量公平和服务质量公平对中餐馆消费者重游意愿的影响,并以消费者满意度为中介。数据收集采用目的抽样技术和滚雪球抽样技术。通过在线谷歌表格回答了200份问卷。利用偏最小二乘结构方程模型(PLS-SEM)对收集到的数据进行分析。描述性统计数据采用SPSS软件进行分析,影响力统计数据采用Smart PLS软件进行分析。分析得出的结论是,食品质量对消费者再次光顾的意愿有非常显著的影响。服务质量和价格的公平性对消费者的回访意愿也有显著的影响。在研究的最后也提到了局限性和建议。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring the Determinants of Worker’s Remittances: An Application of LASSO Technique 探讨工人汇款的决定因素:LASSO技术的应用
Pub Date : 2021-08-30 DOI: 10.29145/2020/jqm/52/03
Hafsa Hina, Fareed Ullah
Remittances are a significant source of foreign income in Pakistan. In order to maintain the level of remittances stables there is need to explore the significant determinants of worker’s remittances.  Therefore, LASSO technique is adopted to define the potential features of worker remittances. ARDL bound test has been applied to explore the long run and short run effect of potential determinants on workers’ remittances. The results suggest in the long run the internal conflicts and investment return of Pakistan have negative, whereas, the real effective exchange rate, external conflicts and major agricultural crops have positive impact on workers’ remittances of Pakistan.
汇款是巴基斯坦外汇收入的重要来源。为了保持汇款水平的稳定,有必要探讨工人汇款的重要决定因素。因此,采用LASSO技术来确定工人汇款的潜在特征。应用ARDL约束检验探讨了潜在决定因素对工人汇款的长期和短期影响。结果表明,从长期来看,巴基斯坦的内部冲突和投资回报为负,而实际有效汇率、外部冲突和主要农作物对巴基斯坦工人的汇款有正影响。
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引用次数: 2
Impact of Bank Profitability on Default Risk: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan 银行盈利能力对违约风险的影响:来自巴基斯坦的经验证据
Pub Date : 2021-08-27 DOI: 10.29145/2020/jqm/52/01
Waqar Khalid, Saifullah Khan, Anum Zahra, N. Shah
This empirical study investigates the effect of the bank-specific determinants of bank profitability on the default risk of the banks listed on the Stock Exchange of Pakistan. For this purpose, the study considers balanced panel data covering the period 2009-2018 for the 20 selected commercial banks of Pakistan, and the probability of default is used to measure the default risk of these banks. The bank profitability is measured using bank-specific determinants such as the net interest margin, non-interest income to total assets, return on assets, return on equity, and spread ratios. The empirical findings of the fixed effects model reported that net interest margin, non-interest income, and spread ratio are the significant determinants of default risk. The findings highlight that the bank profitability determinants can act as early warning signs of a bank’s deteriorating stability level. The study recommended that the central bank of Pakistan should guide the commercial banks to disclose the probability of default values in their financial reports. The study also suggested that the risk management department of a bank should consider these bank-specific determinants of profitability to manage default risk.
本实证研究探讨了银行盈利能力的银行特定决定因素对巴基斯坦证券交易所上市银行违约风险的影响。为此,本研究考虑了巴基斯坦20家选定商业银行2009-2018年期间的均衡面板数据,并使用违约概率来衡量这些银行的违约风险。银行的盈利能力是用银行特有的决定因素来衡量的,比如净息差、非利息收入占总资产的比例、资产回报率、股本回报率和息差比率。固定效应模型的实证结果表明,净息差、非利息收入和息差比率是违约风险的重要决定因素。研究结果强调,银行盈利能力的决定因素可以作为银行稳定性水平恶化的早期预警信号。研究建议,巴基斯坦央行应引导商业银行在财务报告中披露违约概率。该研究还建议,银行的风险管理部门应考虑这些银行特定的盈利能力决定因素,以管理违约风险。
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引用次数: 0
Forecasting COVID-19 Pandemic and Capital Market Efficiency in Africa 预测2019冠状病毒病大流行和非洲资本市场效率
Pub Date : 2021-03-01 DOI: 10.29145/2021/JQM/050106
K. Subair, I. Adekunle
Despite a large and growing list of studies on COVID-19 across space and time and on heterogeneous social, environmental and welfare issues, the empirical relations on the consequences of COVID-19 pandemic and Africa’s market capitalization objectives remain dimly discerned. Even more worrisome is Africa, where the condition for growth and development has not been adequately fulfilled. This structural ambiguity calls for a policy document that is evidence-based to reach conclusions to aid the containment, risk analysis, structures and features of the deadly and fast-spreading disease. This study employed negative binomial and the Poisson regression to establish the contemporaneous influence of COVID-19 pandemic on market capitalization capabilities in Africa. Health data from various reports of the World Health Organization (WHO) is regressed on the all-share index from World Development Indicators (WDI) to establish a clear line of thought. It is found that the growth of confirmed cases and attributable deaths are inversely related to the growth in market capitalization in Africa. The findings from this study show that Africa market capitalization is inversely related to total growth in the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 and attributable COVID-19 deaths. This leads to the assertion that Africa’s capital market is fast nosediving in the time of COVID-19 due to global uncertainties caused by the pandemic. With no known cure or vaccine procedure discovered yet, the global uncertainty around the novel coronavirus disease will lead to approximately 0.56 percentage decrease in market capitalization in Africa. To this end, emphases must be laid on identifying and including non-traditional sources of financing strictly tied to projects that could encourage institutional investors. It is therefore equally imperative for Africa to form a formidable and integrated capital market among themselves.  Keywords: market capitalization; COVID-19 pandemic, negative binomial Regression, poisson, Regression, Africa JEL Classification: C10, C31, G15, I12
尽管对COVID-19的跨时空研究以及对异质性社会、环境和福利问题的研究数量众多,而且还在不断增加,但COVID-19大流行的后果与非洲市值目标之间的实证关系仍然模糊不清。更令人担忧的是非洲,在那里增长和发展的条件没有得到充分满足。这种结构上的模糊性要求有一份以证据为基础的政策文件,以便得出结论,以帮助遏制、风险分析、这种致命和快速传播疾病的结构和特征。本研究采用负二项和泊松回归来确定COVID-19大流行对非洲市场资本化能力的同期影响。世界卫生组织(世卫组织)各种报告中的卫生数据根据世界发展指标(WDI)的全份额指数进行回归,以建立清晰的思路。研究发现,确诊病例和可归因死亡人数的增长与非洲市值的增长成反比。这项研究的结果表明,非洲市场的市值与COVID-19确诊病例和归因于COVID-19的死亡人数的总增长呈负相关。因此,有人指出,由于新冠疫情带来的全球不确定性,非洲资本市场在新冠肺炎疫情期间正在快速下滑。由于尚未发现已知的治疗方法或疫苗程序,围绕新型冠状病毒疾病的全球不确定性将导致非洲市值减少约0.56%。为此目的,必须着重查明和包括与可鼓励机构投资者的项目严格挂钩的非传统资金来源。因此,非洲同样必须在它们之间形成一个强大和一体化的资本市场。关键词:市值;COVID-19大流行,负二项回归,泊松,回归,非洲JEL分类:C10, C31, G15, I12
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引用次数: 0
Panel Data Analysis of Press Freedom and Women Empowerment 新闻自由与妇女赋权的面板数据分析
Pub Date : 2020-03-02 DOI: 10.29145/10.29145/2020/JQM/040106
T. Majeed, Amna Malik
More equal economic, social and political rights for women have long been part of civil and political right movements. It is widely believed that women’s rights are important for greater economic prosperity, good governance and social equality. However, women are still being discriminated in many parts of the world. How women’s rights can be protected? To answer this question, the literature has highlighted the importance of free media in promoting women’s rights. The extant literature on media and women rights, however, is largely limited to descriptive analysis and theoretical arguments. Moreover, the available evidence is confined to few case studies and anecdotal stories, which cannot be generalized globally. This study contributes in the literature by empirically investigating the relationship of press freedom with women empowerment using a large panel of 160 countries from 1996 to 2011. For empirical analysis, the ordered logit method is used. The empirical finding confirms that press freedom is an effective tool to empower women’s economic, political and social rights. Findings of the study are shown to be robust to different specifications, sub-samples, regional controls and different forms of women empowerment. JEL Classifications Codes: C23, J16, Z10
长期以来,妇女享有更平等的经济、社会和政治权利一直是公民权利和政治权利运动的一部分。人们普遍认为,妇女权利对促进经济繁荣、良好治理和社会平等至关重要。然而,在世界许多地方,妇女仍然受到歧视。如何保护妇女的权利?为了回答这个问题,文献强调了自由媒体在促进妇女权利方面的重要性。然而,现有的关于媒体和妇女权利的文献大多局限于描述性分析和理论论证。此外,现有证据仅限于少数案例研究和轶事,无法在全球推广。本研究在1996年至2011年期间对160个国家的新闻自由与妇女赋权的关系进行了实证调查,从而为文献做出了贡献。实证分析采用有序logit方法。实证结果证实,新闻自由是增强妇女经济、政治和社会权利的有效工具。研究结果对不同规格、子样本、区域控制和不同形式的妇女赋权均具有稳健性。JEL分类代码:C23, J16, Z10
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引用次数: 0
An Analysis of the Relationships among Exports, Imports, Physical Capital and Economic Growth in Pakistan 巴基斯坦出口、进口、实物资本与经济增长关系分析
Pub Date : 2020-03-02 DOI: 10.29145/10.29145/2020/JQM/040105
Syed Asfand Yar Shah, Naeem Ahmad, W. Aslam, B. Subhani
This review emphasized the relationship among capital formation, economic growth, exports and imports in case of Pakistan scenario using time series data from 1976 to 2015. Augmented Dickey Fuller Test, Johansen Co-integration, Vector error correction model and Granger Causality techniques have been used to check the relationships among exports, imports and economic growth. The results from this study show that the exports, imports, real GDP and gross fixed capital formation have a long run relationship and are co-integrated. This study uses the data of Pakistan and concludes that GDP doesn’t granger cause with the export and import while export and imports do granger cause with the GDP in the long run. Finding of the study also displays that physical capital formation has no impression over GDP. Previous study shows the positive relation among exports, imports, capital formation and economic growth while this study shows that in the long run capital formation and economic growth has no effect. Government subsidizes the exports and also increases the duty bills on imports that help boost the domestic industries manufacture the goods and motivate to produce the best quality of goods. JEL codes: F2, O47
本文利用1976 - 2015年的时间序列数据,着重分析了巴基斯坦情景下资本形成、经济增长、出口和进口之间的关系。运用增强型Dickey Fuller检验、约翰森协整、向量误差修正模型和格兰杰因果关系技术检验了出口、进口与经济增长之间的关系。研究结果表明,出口、进口、实际GDP和固定资本形成总量具有长期的协整关系。本研究使用巴基斯坦的数据,得出GDP与出口和进口之间不存在格兰杰关系,而出口和进口与GDP之间存在长期格兰杰关系的结论。研究结果还表明,实物资本形成对GDP没有影响。以往的研究表明,出口、进口、资本形成与经济增长呈正相关,而本研究表明,从长期来看,资本形成与经济增长没有影响。政府补贴出口,也增加进口关税,这有助于促进国内工业制造商品,并激励生产最优质的商品。JEL代码:F2, O47
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引用次数: 3
Investment, Poverty and Growth Nexus in Pakistan: Empirical Evidence from ARDL Modeling Approach to Co-Integration 巴基斯坦的投资、贫困和增长关系:来自协整的ARDL模型方法的经验证据
Pub Date : 2020-03-02 DOI: 10.29145/10.29145/2020/JQM/040107
Hina Ali, Imran Sharif
This study analyzes the nexus of investment, poverty and growth in Pakistan. It will develop comprehensive macro economic model of Pakistan economy with the desire of amplification and provided that a long-term result for the determined investment-poverty-growth discrepancy veterans. The significant level of investment and sustained economic growth may be the major driving forces for poverty decrease in Pakistan. The level of investment also assists the poor through a direct allocation influence as well as tortuous growth effect, in both the long run and short run. To detect the long term and short term effects of economic development, poverty and investment, an ARDL modeling approach to co- integration is functional, which is the suitable technique  in excess of method of integration after examining the stationary level of the data through ADF Test. The bound testing approach is exploited for cointegration to analyze the presence of long term association amid variables and ECM models are verbalized for short term analysis. The model is predictable with time-series data from 1972 to 2013 confine mutually the long-run and short-run forceful goods of the economy. The model is subjected to a sequence of strategy situation  that assesses a mixture of options for government to recover the prolific ability of the economy, thus attain continued hasten growth and a decrease in  Pakistan`s poverty. JEL Classification Codes: G12, G 14
本研究分析了巴基斯坦的投资、贫困和增长之间的关系。本研究将建立巴基斯坦经济的综合宏观经济模型,并为长期存在的投资-贫困-增长差异提供一个长期的结果。大量的投资和持续的经济增长可能是巴基斯坦减少贫困的主要动力。在长期和短期内,投资水平还通过直接的分配影响和曲折的增长效应来帮助穷人。为了检测经济发展、贫困和投资的长期和短期效应,用ARDL建模方法进行协整是有功能的,它是在通过ADF检验检验数据的平稳性水平之后,比积分方法更合适的技术。利用边界检验方法进行协整分析变量之间长期关联的存在,并将ECM模型用于短期分析。该模型是可预测的,从1972年到2013年的时间序列数据相互限制经济的长期和短期有力商品。该模型受到一系列战略情况的影响,评估了政府恢复经济多产能力的各种选择,从而实现持续的加速增长和减少巴基斯坦的贫困。JEL分类代码:G12, g14
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引用次数: 2
The Past, Present, and Future of FDI: Towards a better Global Economics 外国直接投资的过去、现在和未来:走向更好的全球经济
Pub Date : 2019-08-31 DOI: 10.29145/2019/JQM/030202
Sana Ullah, Ahmed Usman, Muhammad Imran
We document past, present, and future of FDI trend in recent decades that goes substantially beyond the advanced economies. This rigorous study also examines the influence of FDI on economic growth using macro variables for a global perspective. Six macro variables namely, FDI, physical capital, trade, human capital, labor force, and infrastructure were used in this study. We did a panel analysis on data from 2002 to 2017 and used rigorous two-way fixed effect model. This study finds that both FDI and trade openness enhance economic growth. Open door policies are more beneficial for the entire world; capital also plays a significant role in this process. Further, FDI plays a role with human capital but vocational training, skilled labor force and education are the most important factors to attract FDI. In the last decade, overall sub-Saharan African, EU and Central Asia, Latin America and Caribbean regions have observed a significant economic growth through FDI. The future of FDI in a high populated area is very gleaming. The overall result indicates that FDI accelerates economic growth in the globe.
我们记录了近几十年来外国直接投资的过去、现在和未来趋势,这些趋势大大超出了发达经济体的范围。这一严谨的研究还从宏观角度考察了FDI对经济增长的影响。本研究采用FDI、实物资本、贸易、人力资本、劳动力和基础设施六个宏观变量。我们对2002年至2017年的数据进行了面板分析,采用严格的双向固定效应模型。研究发现FDI和贸易开放都促进了经济增长。开放政策对整个世界更有利;资本在这一过程中也扮演着重要的角色。此外,FDI对人力资本起作用,但职业培训、熟练劳动力和教育是吸引FDI最重要的因素。在过去十年中,整个撒哈拉以南非洲、欧盟和中亚、拉丁美洲和加勒比地区通过外国直接投资取得了显著的经济增长。在一个人口密集的地区,外国直接投资的前景非常光明。总体结果表明,FDI加速了全球经济增长。
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引用次数: 4
Statistical Analysis of Location Parameter of Inverse Gaussian Distribution Under Noninformative Priors 非信息先验条件下逆高斯分布位置参数的统计分析
Pub Date : 2019-08-31 DOI: 10.29145/2019/JQM/030204
Nida Khan, M. Aslam
Bayesian estimation for location parameter of the inverse Gaussian distribution is presented in this paper. Noninformative priors (Uniform and Jeffreys) are assumed to be the prior distributions for the location parameter as the shape parameter of the distribution is considered to be known. Four loss functions: Squared error, Trigonometric, Squared logarithmic and Linex are used for estimation. Bayes risks are obtained to find the best Bayes estimator through simulation study and real life data
提出了反高斯分布位置参数的贝叶斯估计方法。假设非信息先验(Uniform和Jeffreys)是位置参数的先验分布,因为分布的形状参数是已知的。四种损失函数:平方误差,三角函数,平方对数和Linex用于估计。通过仿真研究和实际数据得到贝叶斯风险,找到最佳贝叶斯估计量
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Quantitative Methods
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