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Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Role of Energy Consumption 金融发展与经济增长:能源消费的作用
Pub Date : 2018-08-01 DOI: 10.29145/2018/JQM/020204
H. Siddique, S. Usman, Junaid Ishaq
The study investigates financial development and economic growth nexus, incorporating use of energy resources for Pakistan for 1980-2016, using Johansen co-integration and granger causality approach. The results of Johansen test for co-integration show the link between financial development, energy and economic growth in the long time span. The findings of granger causation test uncovered a two-way causality between capital and economic growth. The one-way causality exists from economic growth in energy and financial development. The findings also exposed the one-way causality from capital formation and exports to use of energy. The government should take steps to make financial sectors stronger as it has a great role in increasing the growth of an economy.
本研究采用约翰森协整和格兰杰因果关系方法,结合巴基斯坦1980-2016年的能源使用情况,调查了金融发展和经济增长之间的关系。协整的约翰森检验结果显示,金融发展、能源和经济增长在较长的时间跨度内存在联系。格兰杰因果检验的结果揭示了资本与经济增长之间的双向因果关系。单向因果关系存在于能源和金融发展中的经济增长。研究结果还揭示了资本形成和出口与能源使用之间的单向因果关系。政府应该采取措施,让金融部门变得更强大,因为它对经济增长起到了很大的作用。
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引用次数: 6
Role of Quantitative Methods in Quantifying "Reality" Objectively 定量方法在客观量化“现实”中的作用
Pub Date : 2018-08-01 DOI: 10.29145/2018/jqm/020201
Khalid Rasheed Al Adeem
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引用次数: 1
Econometric Test on Growth-Unemployment Nexus in India 印度增长-失业关系的计量经济学检验
Pub Date : 2018-08-01 DOI: 10.29145/2018/jqm/020205
Debesh Bhowmik
Generally, the economic growth boosts employment growth rate but empirical evidences do not support these views in all cases. In this paper, the author endeavors to relate growth with unemployment rate during 1991-2016 in India using regression models, Granger Causality test, Johansen Cointegration test and Vector Error Correction model. Impulse response functions were fitted for testing stationary. Unit circle was found out to check stability of the Vector Error Correction. Output gap is measured by deducting Hodrick-Prescott Filtered trend value from the actual output. Unemployment gap is measured by deducting natural growth rate of unemployment from the actual unemployment rate. The data on Indian unemployment rate, growth rate and GDP from 1991 to 2016 have been taken from the World Bank. The paper concludes that growth-unemployment nexus is significantly negative at 10% level. Their relation is not causal but is co-integrated at 10% level. VECM is stable and non-stationary where in one error correction process the speed of adjustment is high and significant. The relation between output gap and unemployment is negative and insignificant. They are not co-integrated and have no causality. The nexus between output gap and unemployment gap is significantly negative but the relation has no causality and co-integration. VAR model is a good fit where variables are related with previous periods. The relation between growth and unemployment gap is insignificantly negative and co-integrated where VECM is stable but non-stationary and one speed of adjustment is significantly fast and other is insignificantly slow in error correction process.
一般来说,经济增长促进了就业增长率,但经验证据并不是在所有情况下都支持这些观点。本文采用回归模型、格兰杰因果检验、约翰森协整检验和向量误差修正模型对1991-2016年印度经济增长率与失业率之间的关系进行了研究。拟合脉冲响应函数以检验平稳性。找出单位圆来检验矢量纠错的稳定性。输出缺口是通过从实际输出中扣除Hodrick-Prescott滤波趋势值来测量的。失业缺口是用实际失业率减去失业自然增长率来衡量的。印度1991年至2016年的失业率、增长率和GDP数据来自世界银行。本文的结论是,在10%的水平上,增长-失业关系显著为负。它们之间的关系不是因果关系,而是在10%水平上的协整关系。VECM具有稳定性和非平稳性,在一次误差修正过程中调整速度高且显著。产出缺口与失业率呈负相关且不显著。它们不是协整的,也没有因果关系。产出缺口与失业缺口之间存在显著负相关关系,但二者之间不存在因果关系和协整关系。当变量与前期相关时,VAR模型是一个很好的拟合模型。在修正误差过程中,经济增长与失业差距呈不显著的负相关和协整关系,其中VECM稳定但非平稳,一个调整速度显著快,另一个调整速度显著慢。
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引用次数: 1
Disaggregated Imports Demand Functions: An Empirical Analysis for Pakistan 分类进口需求函数:巴基斯坦的实证分析
Pub Date : 2018-08-01 DOI: 10.29145/2018/JQM/020202
Malik Muhammad, U. Riaz
Given the importance of international trade in the economic performance of a country, voluminous research work has been carried out on the determinants of aggregate exports and imports. The present study departs from the conventional approach by analyzing demand of imports in a commodity-wise disaggregated fashion. As different products respond differently to trade policies and exchange rates, therefore policy makers can focus on the particular products when designing their policies for imports. Specifically, this study attempts to analyze the impact of prices, income level, foreign exchange reserves, exchange rate and trade liberalization program on 26 commodities defined by SITC 3-digit classification in which Pakistan has been most often a net importer. Using data for the period 1982 to 2010, GMM estimates reveal inelastic response of the major commodities to their own prices and are growth driven.
鉴于国际贸易对一国经济表现的重要性,已就总出口和总进口的决定因素进行了大量的研究工作。本研究与传统方法不同,以商品分类的方式分析进口需求。由于不同的产品对贸易政策和汇率的反应不同,因此政策制定者在设计进口政策时可以将重点放在特定产品上。具体而言,本研究试图分析价格、收入水平、外汇储备、汇率和贸易自由化计划对26种由SITC三位数分类定义的商品的影响,巴基斯坦在这些商品中最经常是净进口国。利用1982年至2010年期间的数据,GMM估计揭示了主要大宗商品对其自身价格的非弹性反应,并受增长驱动。
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引用次数: 2
Cost Leadership, Market Orientation and Business Performance: An Empirical Investigation 成本领先、市场导向与企业绩效的实证研究
Pub Date : 2018-08-01 DOI: 10.29145/2018/JQM/020203
A. H. G. Dutse, M. Aliyu
The study aimed at examining the relationship between cost leadership strategy, market orientation and business performance of manufacturing, Small and Medium Enterprise performance (SMEs). A quantitative survey method was employed, using a cross-sectional research design. The data were collected through self-administered questionnaires from a sample of 287 respondents. The study indicated that SMEs are essential to the economic growth of Nigeria; because they serve as an indispensable source of employment generation. SMEs contribute immensely towards the formation of industries, enhanced capital accumulation, served as an intermediary for goods, and assist in the uplifting the living standard through the provision of variety of products and services. The research model used in this survey was designed in line with the theoretical evidence which in turn lead to the correlation between the research variables. The study employed the Multiple regression method; the findings indicated that cost leadership strategy and market orientation has a significant positive relationship with the performance of SMEs. The discussion provided some limitations and offer suggestions for future research directions.
本研究旨在探讨成本领先战略、市场导向与制造业经营绩效、中小企业绩效之间的关系。采用定量调查方法,采用横断面研究设计。数据是通过对287名受访者的自填问卷收集的。研究表明,中小企业对尼日利亚的经济增长至关重要;因为它们是创造就业的不可或缺的来源。中小企业对产业的形成,资本的积累,商品的中介,以及通过提供各种产品和服务来帮助提高生活水平做出了巨大的贡献。本调查中使用的研究模型是根据理论证据设计的,这反过来又导致了研究变量之间的相关性。本研究采用多元回归方法;研究发现,成本领先战略和市场导向对中小企业绩效有显著的正向影响。本文提出了一些局限性,并对今后的研究方向提出了建议。
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引用次数: 6
Creating Optimal Portfolio and the Efficient Frontier Using Microsoft Excel ® 使用Microsoft Excel®创建最佳投资组合和高效前沿
Pub Date : 2018-08-01 DOI: 10.29145/2018/JQM/020207
Saurav Roychoudhury
Portfolio managers and investors strive to achieve the best possible trade-off between risk and return, and one of the tools they use is constructing mean-variance efficient portfolios. Finance students learn about optimal portfolios and efficient frontiers, though it is difficult to replicate them unless they have access to sophisticated software. This paper develops a teaching module that uses Microsoft Excel® to create mean-variance portfolios and traces out the efficient frontier using real-world data. In the process, the students learn to determine optimal investment allocations in a portfolio, select the optimum investment portfolio given investor’s objectives and preferences and learn about factors that influence different asset allocations. For multiple assets (N>3), the paper uses Matrix algebra in Excel®. The paper enables students and investors to learn how to construct real-world mean-variance efficient portfolios using Excel®.
投资组合经理和投资者努力实现风险和回报之间的最佳权衡,他们使用的工具之一是构建平均方差有效的投资组合。金融专业的学生学习的是最佳投资组合和高效前沿,尽管除非他们能使用复杂的软件,否则很难复制它们。本文开发了一个教学模块,该模块使用Microsoft Excel®创建均值方差组合,并使用实际数据跟踪有效边界。在这个过程中,学生学会确定投资组合中的最优投资配置,根据投资者的目标和偏好选择最优投资组合,并了解影响不同资产配置的因素。对于多个资产(N>3),本文使用Excel®中的矩阵代数。本文使学生和投资者能够学习如何使用Excel®构建真实世界的均值方差有效投资组合。
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引用次数: 1
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Journal of Quantitative Methods
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