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A Macroprudential Framework for Monitoring and Examining Financial Soundness 监测和检查金融稳健性的宏观审慎框架
Pub Date : 2010-03-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1587812
L. Schou-Zibell, J. Albert, Lei Lei Song
This paper describes concepts and tools behind macroprudential monitoring, and the growing importance of macroprudential tools for assessing the stability of financial systems. This paper also employs a macroprudential approach in examining financial soundness and identifying its determinants. Using data from selected developing economies in Asia, South America, and Europe, as well as selected economies from the developed world, panel regressions are estimated to quantify the impacts of the major influences on key financial soundness indicators, including capital adequacy, asset quality, and earnings and profitability.
本文描述了宏观审慎监测背后的概念和工具,以及评估金融体系稳定性的宏观审慎工具日益增长的重要性。本文还采用宏观审慎的方法来检查财务稳健性和确定其决定因素。利用亚洲、南美和欧洲选定的发展中经济体以及发达世界选定的经济体的数据,估计了面板回归,以量化主要影响因素对关键财务稳健性指标的影响,包括资本充足率、资产质量、收益和盈利能力。
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引用次数: 42
Earnings Quality and the Adoption of IFRS-Based Accounting Standards: Evidence from an Emerging Market 盈余质量与基于国际财务报告准则的会计准则的采用:来自新兴市场的证据
Pub Date : 2010-03-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1566634
Wan Adibah Wan Ismail, Tony van Zijl, K. Dunstan
Purpose - This study aims to investigate the differences in earnings quality of Malaysian companies after the adoption of IFRS-based accounting standards named FRS. Design/methodology/approach - It is hypothesize that under the new set of accounting standards, the quality of earnings reported by these companies is relatively higher. Specifically, the study tests whether the level of earnings management is significantly lower after the adoption of IFRS, and reported earnings is more value relevant during the IFRS period. This study uses a large sample of 4,010 observations over a three-year period before and a three-year period after the adoption of the new set of accounting standards. Findings - The results show that IFRS adoption is associated with higher quality of reported earnings. It is found that earnings reported during the period after the adoption of IFRS is associated with lower earnings management and higher value relevant. Originality/value - The results of this study contribute additional evidence to the literature on earnings quality and the impact of IFRS adoption. As most of the existing studies on earnings quality and IFRS have been conducted on data from the U.S and European countries, this study fills a gap in the existing literature by studying the effect of adoption of IFRS on earnings quality in an emerging market.
目的-本研究旨在调查采用基于国际财务报告准则(ifrs)的会计准则(FRS)后马来西亚公司盈余质量的差异。设计/方法/方法-假设在新的会计准则下,这些公司报告的盈余质量相对较高。具体而言,本研究检验了采用国际财务报告准则后盈余管理水平是否显著降低,以及在国际财务报告准则期间报告的盈余是否更具价值相关性。本研究采用了4,010个大样本,在采用新会计准则之前和之后的三年期间进行了观察。调查结果-结果显示,采用国际财务报告准则与较高的报告盈余质量相关。研究发现,采用国际财务报告准则后当期报告的盈余与较低的盈余管理水平和较高的价值相关性相关。独创性/价值——本研究的结果为有关盈余质量和采用国际财务报告准则的影响的文献提供了额外的证据。由于现有关于盈余质量和国际财务报告准则的研究大多是基于美国和欧洲国家的数据进行的,因此本研究通过研究新兴市场采用国际财务报告准则对盈余质量的影响,填补了现有文献的空白。
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引用次数: 177
Till Geography Do Us Part? Prolegomena to an Economic and Monetary Union between the Dominican Republic and Haiti 直到地理将我们分开?多米尼加共和国和海地之间经济和货币联盟的展望
Pub Date : 2010-03-01 DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5241
E. Moreira
This paper offers a preliminary assessment of the potential benefits and costs of an economic and monetary union (EMU) between the Dominican Republic and Haiti -- two countries sharing the same island but whose history is one of conflict and divergent economic prospects in recent decades. After a brief review of the historical context, it examines the nature of these potential benefits and costs. It then conducts a preliminary analysis (using basic statistical techniques) of some key criteria for the formation of an economic and monetary union between the two countries. A more formal analysis of business cycle synchronization, based on basic and extended integrated vector auto-regression models with exogenous variables (VARX), is developed next. Overall, the analysis suggests that at this stage several economic criteria are not satisfied for the two countries to fully benefit from an economic and monetary union. At the same time, however, the endogeneity of most of these criteria (including the degree of business cycle synchronization) militates in favor of an aggressive medium-term agenda for integration between them.
本文对多米尼加共和国和海地之间的经济和货币联盟(EMU)的潜在收益和成本进行了初步评估,这两个国家共享同一个岛屿,但其历史是近几十年来冲突和不同的经济前景之一。在简要回顾了历史背景之后,本文考察了这些潜在收益和成本的本质。然后(使用基本的统计技术)对两国之间形成经济和货币联盟的一些关键标准进行初步分析。基于基本和扩展的外生变量集成向量自回归模型(VARX),对商业周期同步进行了更正式的分析。总的来说,分析表明,在这个阶段,两国还没有满足几个经济标准,才能从经济和货币联盟中充分受益。然而,与此同时,大多数这些标准的内生性(包括商业周期同步的程度)不利于制定积极的中期议程,以便在它们之间进行整合。
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引用次数: 0
South & Central Asian Economic Forum (SCAEF) 南亚和中亚经济论坛
Pub Date : 2010-02-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1559294
Abdul Moeed Qureshi
To develop an economic forum in South and Central Asian region is possible if the underlying various environmental, political and regional conflicts are solved, which makes the economic cooperation and integration near to impossible. The western countries are now eyeing the Asian countries where population is abundant which can be targeted as customers. There is still prevalence of recession in certain areas but Asian countries are far less affected by this factor, it can be a connecting line for global players to enter this region for trade and investments. The trade barriers and sanctions also hinder the road to economic integration in the region. However based on personal analysis of different factors, economic integration may exist on certain consensus and initiative from strong players. The basic underlying objective of this concept paper is to develop a model which works on the rule of assembling the neighbors and start a multilateral process of economic integration. The success of this forum can be assumed for connecting line for establishing common institutions for economic integration e.g Common Central Bank, Basket Currency for the region etc.
如果各种潜在的环境、政治和区域冲突得到解决,在南亚和中亚地区发展一个经济论坛是可能的,这些冲突使经济合作和一体化几乎是不可能的。西方国家现在盯上了人口丰富的亚洲国家,这些国家可以作为目标客户。某些地区仍然普遍存在衰退,但亚洲国家受这一因素的影响要小得多,它可以成为全球参与者进入该地区进行贸易和投资的连接线。贸易壁垒和制裁也阻碍了该区域经济一体化的道路。然而,基于个人对不同因素的分析,经济一体化可能存在于一定的共识和强大参与者的主动。这篇概念论文的基本潜在目标是开发一个适用于邻国聚集规则的模型,并启动经济一体化的多边进程。本次论坛的成功可以被认为是为建立共同的经济一体化机构,如共同的中央银行,区域的一篮子货币等。
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引用次数: 0
The Role of Education in Preparing Graduates for the Labor Market in the GCC Countries 教育在海湾合作委员会国家为毕业生进入劳动力市场做准备中的作用
Pub Date : 2010-02-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1554716
L. Karoly
In the 21st century knowledge economy, education plays an increasingly important role in preparing new labor market entrants for the workforce and providing skill upgrading throughout the working career. The vital role of education is propelled by the rapid pace of technological change, as well as the interdependent, global economy, forces that together demand a workforce with the capacity for leadership, problem solving, and collaboration and communication in a wide range of economic sectors. Within this context, the education and workforce development systems are critical for supporting human capital development throughout the life course. This paper reviews these broader trends regarding the role of education in the labor market and then considers the implications for education in the countries of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), namely Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Where data are available, the paper examines patterns of educational attainment overall in these countries, evidence of the quality of the education systems and the graduates they produce, and the labor market benefits of higher educational attainment. It also assesses gender differences, where possible, in each of these indicators of interest. The paper concludes by enumerating several key challenges facing the Gulf countries in promoting strong education systems and well functioning labor markets to meet the labor force needs in the private and public sectors in the 21st century global economy.
在21世纪的知识经济中,教育在为劳动力市场的新进入者做好准备以及在整个职业生涯中提供技能提升方面发挥着越来越重要的作用。快速的技术变革以及相互依存的全球经济推动了教育的重要作用,这些力量共同要求劳动力具有领导能力,解决问题的能力,以及在广泛的经济部门进行协作和沟通的能力。在此背景下,教育和劳动力发展系统对于支持整个生命过程中的人力资本发展至关重要。本文回顾了这些关于教育在劳动力市场中的作用的更广泛的趋势,然后考虑了海湾合作委员会(GCC)国家(即巴林、科威特、阿曼、卡塔尔、沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国)教育的影响。在有数据的情况下,本文考察了这些国家的总体教育成就模式、教育系统质量及其培养的毕业生的证据,以及高等教育成就对劳动力市场的好处。在可能的情况下,本报告还评估了每一项有关指标的性别差异。报告最后列举了海湾国家在促进强大的教育体系和运转良好的劳动力市场以满足21世纪全球经济中私营和公共部门的劳动力需求方面面临的几项关键挑战。
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引用次数: 33
The Research Profiling Method Applied to Nano-Enhanced, Thin-Film Solar Cells 应用于纳米增强薄膜太阳能电池的研究方法
Pub Date : 2010-02-09 DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9310.2010.00600.x
Ying Guo, Lu Huang, A. Porter
Nanotechnology-enhanced thin-film solar cells constitute promising solar energy solutions and an important emerging application of nanotechnology. This paper profiles the research patterns via ‘tech mining’ to capture key technological attributes, leading actors and networks. We compare the leading countries, and key organizations, in terms of R&D quantity, impact and diversity. We find that India is a leader in this field, which is a little surprising. India and China show strong trends of relative increase in both research activity and impact. One German organization appears as especially productive and the central node in Germany's research network, which contrasts with the diffused network of the United States. International collaboration patterns also vary, with China particularly showing much less international cooperation than others. Some countries appear to share interests, but they do not show much cooperation – e.g., China with Japan. Research profiling, as illustrated here, can help an R&D manager or policy-maker locate one's intended research activity among existing endeavors, to determine how attractive the opportunities are. Such depictions can also help identify collaboration opportunities and potentially attractive partners.
纳米技术增强的薄膜太阳能电池是一种很有前途的太阳能解决方案,也是纳米技术的重要新兴应用。本文通过“技术挖掘”来描述研究模式,以捕获关键技术属性、主要参与者和网络。我们在研发数量、影响和多样性方面比较了领先国家和主要组织。我们发现印度在这一领域处于领先地位,这有点令人惊讶。印度和中国在研究活动和影响方面都显示出相对增加的强劲趋势。一个德国组织似乎特别富有成效,是德国研究网络的中心节点,这与美国的分散网络形成鲜明对比。国际合作模式也各不相同,特别是中国的国际合作比其他国家少得多。有些国家似乎有共同的利益,但他们并没有表现出太多的合作——例如中国与日本。研究概况,如这里所示,可以帮助研发经理或政策制定者在现有的努力中找到一个预期的研究活动,以确定机会的吸引力。这样的描述还可以帮助确定合作机会和潜在的有吸引力的合作伙伴。
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引用次数: 51
The Effectiveness of China’s Anti-Money Laundering Policies 中国反洗钱政策的有效性
Pub Date : 2010-02-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1550532
Xujun Tang, Yong Shi, Zuoyi Cao
It is a controversial issue as to how to assess the effectiveness of the Anti-Money Laundering (AML) regime on the global arena. Based upon around 9,000 questionnaires circulated to AML professionals and other related staffs at the branches of banking institutions and People’s Bank of China as well, this study has acquired first hand data from respondents, and come up with following key findings. For the effectiveness of the whole AML system, it is rated as “largely effective” in respects to China’s legislation, regulation and supervision, suspicious transaction monitoring and analyses, administrative investigation, yet, it is rated as “basically effective” in respect to money laundering prosecutions and convictions, international cooperation. For the financial intuitions’ compliance with AML regulations, it is rated as “largely effective” in respects to internal control, customer’s identification, large-value transaction and suspicious transaction reporting, the record-keeping of ID information and transactions. Statistically, 58.48% respondents think that the China’s AML regime is “completely effective” or “largely effective”, 35.21% think that it is “basically effective”, with the remaining 4.68% “largely ineffective” or “completely ineffective”. In conclusion, some policy recommendations to enhance the effectiveness are proposed.
如何在全球范围内评估反洗钱(AML)制度的有效性是一个有争议的问题。本研究通过向各银行机构和中国人民银行分行的“反洗钱”专业人员和其他相关工作人员发放的约9000份问卷,获得了受访者的第一手数据,并得出以下主要发现:对于整个“反洗钱”体系的有效性,在中国的立法、监管和监督、可疑交易监测和分析、行政调查方面被评为“基本有效”,而在洗钱起诉和定罪、国际合作方面被评为“基本有效”。金融机构在遵守“反洗钱”法规方面,在内部控制、客户身份识别、大额交易和可疑交易报告、身份信息和交易记录保存等方面被评为“基本有效”。据统计,58.48%的受访者认为中国的“反洗钱”制度“完全有效”或“基本有效”,35.21%的受访者认为“基本有效”,其余4.68%的受访者认为“基本无效”或“完全无效”。在此基础上,提出了提高政策有效性的政策建议。
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引用次数: 3
Expedited Debt Restructuring in Latin America 拉丁美洲加速债务重组
Pub Date : 2010-02-05 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.1548438
Dr. Rodrigo Olivares-Caminal, G. Frigerio
The aim of this paper is to provide a comparative analysis of out-of-court alternatives in Latin America. It focuses on the importance of these alternatives to restore financial viability to troubled companies in a scenario of recurrent regional instability. The importance of out-of-court restructuring alternatives lies on their expediency and, to a certain extent, their predictability. This objective of this paper is to contribute to the discussion on expedited corporate debt restructuring in Latin America by providing a thorough up to date regional analysis on pre-packs, pre-negotiated deals and private workouts. The use of expedited debt-restructuring alternatives allows debtors and creditors to negotiate the terms of an agreement in a shorter period of time than traditional reorganization procedures, minimizing the problem of holdout creditors and avoiding long and costly procedures.
本文的目的是提供一个比较分析庭外选择在拉丁美洲。它着重于在区域反复不稳定的情况下,这些替代方案对于恢复陷入困境的公司的财务生存能力的重要性。庭外重组方案的重要性在于其权宜之计,并在一定程度上具有可预测性。本文的目的是通过对预打包、预谈判交易和私人重组提供全面的最新区域分析,促进关于拉丁美洲加速公司债务重组的讨论。使用快速债务重组替代办法使债务人和债权人能够在比传统重组程序更短的时间内就协议条款进行谈判,最大限度地减少了顽固债权人的问题,并避免了漫长而昂贵的程序。
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引用次数: 1
GDP Weighted Asset Allocation, February 2010 GDP加权资产配置,2010年2月
Pub Date : 2010-02-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1552127
Msci Inc.
In this bulletin, we examine the effects of an alternative global index weighting scheme that weights countries in a regional index by their GDP. This strategy has led to a superior performance of the MSCI All Country World, MSCI World, and MSCI Emerging markets GDP Weighted indices in the past 40 years when compared to their market capitalization weighted counterparts. We also list possible reasons that could explain this historical outperformance.
在本公报中,我们研究了另一种全球指数加权方案的影响,该方案按GDP对区域指数中的国家进行加权。与市值加权指数相比,这一策略使MSCI全球指数、MSCI全球指数和MSCI新兴市场GDP加权指数在过去40年里表现优异。我们还列出了可以解释这种历史优异表现的可能原因。
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引用次数: 0
Are Carry Trade Risks Systematic Risks Now? An Analysis of the Dynamics of Carry Trade Risks 套利交易风险现在是系统性风险吗?套利交易风险动态分析
Pub Date : 2010-02-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1546637
Apurv Jain
In this paper, I study individual currency pairs and examine the behavior of the cross section of their carry returns with the USD. Developed and emerging market carry trades yield high Sharpe ratios even after adjusting for transaction costs. I show that carry trade risks carry trade risks are dynamic and have become more systematic in recent years. From 1999 onwards, the high carry return currencies have significant coefficients in a time series regression of returns on the US stock market returns, implied volatility innovations of the US stock market options (VIX), TED spreads. In addition to the time series factor loadings, I find that the cross section of carry trade returns can be sorted by betas on the any of these variables - US stock market, VIX innovations and TED spreads. I also document the increasing role of inflation growth in the cross section of currency returns and the increase in carry returns due to the presence of differentially inflation targeting central banks. I find that in both periods, the more negatively a central banks Taylor rule beta with respect to the US central bank is, the higher the return that currency pair achieves. I analyze how this observation may help make hedge funds and investors investing in other countries endogenous in theoretical models.
在本文中,我研究了单个货币对,并研究了它们与美元的利差收益的横截面的行为。发达市场和新兴市场的套息交易即使在调整交易成本后,也能产生较高的夏普比率。我指出,套利交易风险是动态的,近年来变得更加系统化。从1999年开始,高套利收益货币在美国股票市场收益、美国股票市场期权隐含波动率创新(VIX)、TED价差的时间序列回归中具有显著系数。除了时间序列因素负载之外,我发现套息交易收益的横截面可以通过这些变量中的任何一个进行排序——美国股市、VIX创新和TED点差。我还记录了通货膨胀增长在货币回报横截面中的日益重要的作用,以及由于存在不同的通货膨胀目标央行而导致的利差回报的增加。我发现,在这两个时期,央行的泰勒规则贝塔值相对于美国央行越负,该货币对获得的回报就越高。我在理论模型中分析了这一观察如何有助于使对冲基金和投资于其他国家的投资者具有内生性。
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引用次数: 3
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International Environment of Global Business eJournal
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