Joonyoung Park, Seung-Rae Lee, Deuk-Hwan Lee, Gou-Moon Choi
Due to sharp increase in damages from localized heavy rainfall-induced landslide disasters in Korea since 2000s, there has been increasing interest in researches on the development of effective, practical, and reliable decision-making supportive tools in the disaster management such as early warning systems and risk assessment frameworks. As one of representative outcomes from the researches, a citywide landslide early warning system (LEWS) was developed and implemented in the local government of Busan, the second largest city of Korea, and now under test-operation. With the brief overview on distinctive features of the system, the paper specifically focuses on the concept of debrisflow risk analysis results presented in real-time with the highest warning level, Emergency. Since the areas of Emergency can be theoretically interpreted as debris-flow source areas and they are to be progressively expanded according to the accumulated rainfall input data (e.g., continuous rainfall amount), the initial volume of debris-flow corresponding to a continuous rainfall amount was estimated, and accordingly, numerical simulations and quantitative analyses of debris-flow movements, vulnerabilities and socio-economic properties of risk elements were conducted in the predicted deposition area. A case study was conducted for a vulnerable site to debris-flow in a mountain of Busan. Lastly, thresholds based on human vulnerabilities were introduced and discussed in order to supplement the limitations of risk information based on the building vulnerability.
{"title":"A STUDY OF THE COMBINATION OF RISK ANALYSIS WITH A CITYWIDE LANDSLIDE EARLY WARNING SYSTEM","authors":"Joonyoung Park, Seung-Rae Lee, Deuk-Hwan Lee, Gou-Moon Choi","doi":"10.2495/RISK180021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2495/RISK180021","url":null,"abstract":"Due to sharp increase in damages from localized heavy rainfall-induced landslide disasters in Korea since 2000s, there has been increasing interest in researches on the development of effective, practical, and reliable decision-making supportive tools in the disaster management such as early warning systems and risk assessment frameworks. As one of representative outcomes from the researches, a citywide landslide early warning system (LEWS) was developed and implemented in the local government of Busan, the second largest city of Korea, and now under test-operation. With the brief overview on distinctive features of the system, the paper specifically focuses on the concept of debrisflow risk analysis results presented in real-time with the highest warning level, Emergency. Since the areas of Emergency can be theoretically interpreted as debris-flow source areas and they are to be progressively expanded according to the accumulated rainfall input data (e.g., continuous rainfall amount), the initial volume of debris-flow corresponding to a continuous rainfall amount was estimated, and accordingly, numerical simulations and quantitative analyses of debris-flow movements, vulnerabilities and socio-economic properties of risk elements were conducted in the predicted deposition area. A case study was conducted for a vulnerable site to debris-flow in a mountain of Busan. Lastly, thresholds based on human vulnerabilities were introduced and discussed in order to supplement the limitations of risk information based on the building vulnerability.","PeriodicalId":21504,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis XI","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75639280","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The huge variety of natural disasters that have occurred in Peru highlights the necessity, due to the social, economic and environmental impacts, to improve national risk and disaster management plans. Hence the need to evaluate vulnerability from a multidimensional perspective that allows the assessment of the social and physical conditions of the region. The main objective of this research is to help improve risk and disaster management plans by proposing a methodology that integrates the assessment of physical vulnerability (based on the physical characteristics of the infrastructure) with social vulnerability, as a result of the main sociodemographic variables. Using the Peruvian city of Chiclayo (located in the district of Chiclayo) as a case study, this methodology has been implemented for the specific case of earthquakes. In order to determine the overall vulnerability of this district, it was first necessary to determine each component, social and physical, separately. For the physical aspect of vulnerability, the amount of debris generated after a seismic event was used as a proxy. For the social aspect, representative and valid social indicators were used for the study area, such as level of education, age profile, permanent disability. By integrating both results, we obtain a global perspective on the vulnerability, giving equal importance, in the assessment of seismic risk, to the individual and infrastructure. The final result of this methodological tool is identification of which sectors need immediate help after a seismic event. Otherwise, if the seismic risk assessment is based only on information about physical aspects, certain areas of the district, that require urgent actions, may be neglected. Finally, this methodology is applicable for the different scales of analysis (e.g. country, region and district).
{"title":"METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK TO INTEGRATE SOCIAL AND PHYSICAL VULNERABILITY IN THE PREVENTION OF SEISMIC RISK","authors":"Luis Izquierdo-Horna, R. Kahhat","doi":"10.2495/RISK180061","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2495/RISK180061","url":null,"abstract":"The huge variety of natural disasters that have occurred in Peru highlights the necessity, due to the social, economic and environmental impacts, to improve national risk and disaster management plans. Hence the need to evaluate vulnerability from a multidimensional perspective that allows the assessment of the social and physical conditions of the region. The main objective of this research is to help improve risk and disaster management plans by proposing a methodology that integrates the assessment of physical vulnerability (based on the physical characteristics of the infrastructure) with social vulnerability, as a result of the main sociodemographic variables. Using the Peruvian city of Chiclayo (located in the district of Chiclayo) as a case study, this methodology has been implemented for the specific case of earthquakes. In order to determine the overall vulnerability of this district, it was first necessary to determine each component, social and physical, separately. For the physical aspect of vulnerability, the amount of debris generated after a seismic event was used as a proxy. For the social aspect, representative and valid social indicators were used for the study area, such as level of education, age profile, permanent disability. By integrating both results, we obtain a global perspective on the vulnerability, giving equal importance, in the assessment of seismic risk, to the individual and infrastructure. The final result of this methodological tool is identification of which sectors need immediate help after a seismic event. Otherwise, if the seismic risk assessment is based only on information about physical aspects, certain areas of the district, that require urgent actions, may be neglected. Finally, this methodology is applicable for the different scales of analysis (e.g. country, region and district).","PeriodicalId":21504,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis XI","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77316924","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A. Barra, O. Monserrat, L. Solari, G. Herrera, C. López, R. Onori, P. Reichenbach, E. González-Alonso, R. M. Mateos, S. Bianchini, M. Crosetto
SAFETY (Sentinel-1 for geohazards regional monitoring and forecasting – safety.cttc.es) is a two-year research project funded under the ECHO (European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations) call “Prevention and preparedness projects in Civil Protection and marine pollution”, which started on the 1st January 2016. The mission of the project was to improve the efforts in detecting and mapping geohazards (i.e. landslide, volcanic and subsidence), by assessing their activity and evaluating their impact on built-up areas and infrastructure networks through space-borne radar data. This goal has been achieved through the use of Sentinel-1 DInSAR (Differential Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry) derived products and the development of software tools. The most challenging part concerned the semiautomatic generation of derived maps to be easily interpreted and exploited in the geohazard management by the Civil Protection Authorities, which are not usually familiar with DInSAR products. This work provides an overview of the project activities, describing the developed procedure, the main outcomes, and the most significant results obtained over the two test sites of the project: the Canary Islands (Spain) and the Volterra municipality (Italy). The main goal of this work is to present the potentialities of Sentinel-1 interferometry as a regular complementary input for the regional scale risk management.
{"title":"THE SAFETY PROJECT: SENTINEL-1 FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF GEOLOGICAL RISK","authors":"A. Barra, O. Monserrat, L. Solari, G. Herrera, C. López, R. Onori, P. Reichenbach, E. González-Alonso, R. M. Mateos, S. Bianchini, M. Crosetto","doi":"10.2495/RISK180221","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2495/RISK180221","url":null,"abstract":"SAFETY (Sentinel-1 for geohazards regional monitoring and forecasting – safety.cttc.es) is a two-year research project funded under the ECHO (European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations) call “Prevention and preparedness projects in Civil Protection and marine pollution”, which started on the 1st January 2016. The mission of the project was to improve the efforts in detecting and mapping geohazards (i.e. landslide, volcanic and subsidence), by assessing their activity and evaluating their impact on built-up areas and infrastructure networks through space-borne radar data. This goal has been achieved through the use of Sentinel-1 DInSAR (Differential Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry) derived products and the development of software tools. The most challenging part concerned the semiautomatic generation of derived maps to be easily interpreted and exploited in the geohazard management by the Civil Protection Authorities, which are not usually familiar with DInSAR products. This work provides an overview of the project activities, describing the developed procedure, the main outcomes, and the most significant results obtained over the two test sites of the project: the Canary Islands (Spain) and the Volterra municipality (Italy). The main goal of this work is to present the potentialities of Sentinel-1 interferometry as a regular complementary input for the regional scale risk management.","PeriodicalId":21504,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis XI","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80555278","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Relatively low frequencies of major atmospheric catastrophic events with high insurance penetration have left insurers and reinsurers in profit over the last decade despite falling insurance rates and climate change. Namely reinsurers, i.e. those companies that globally diversify risk and insure insurers, have enjoyed: 1) an unprecedented drought of landfalling hurricanes; 2) low activity in devastating extratropical storms in Europe; and 3) low loss activity from Japanese typhoons. This last decade of moderate losses was only interrupted by this year’s hurricane activity with HIM (Harvey, Irma, and Maria) creating insured losses of around USD 100 bn – less than half of the losses that were expected over the last decade. Fuelled by low dividends in the capital market and high non-correlating returns from insurance, investors decided to participate directly in the reinsurance market, i.e. changed their earlier strategy by pushing capital into insurance risk rather than insurance companies. Although having started (on a very small flame) as early as the mid-1990s, this ILS (insurance linked securities) market has exploded recently by adding a growing amount of currently 20% to the existing reinsurance capital. Investors for these ILS products include pension and hedge funds, fund managers, private capital, among others. 2% of the assets managed by pension funds alone could replace the global (re)insurance capital herewith making it possible, if not very likely, that natural catastrophe (re)insurance risk will be managed differently in the foreseeable future. This paper deals with catastrophe risk in the insurance market as well as risk assessment and hedging in an environment that is both changing in terms of hazard and vulnerability but also in its means to assess, assume and trade risk. These changes may bear unprecedented opportunities but also significant threats.
{"title":"UNDERSTANDING AND HEDGING NATURAL CATASTROPHE RISK IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT: A (RE)INSURANCE PERSPECTIVE","authors":"G. Michel","doi":"10.2495/RISK180141","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2495/RISK180141","url":null,"abstract":"Relatively low frequencies of major atmospheric catastrophic events with high insurance penetration have left insurers and reinsurers in profit over the last decade despite falling insurance rates and climate change. Namely reinsurers, i.e. those companies that globally diversify risk and insure insurers, have enjoyed: 1) an unprecedented drought of landfalling hurricanes; 2) low activity in devastating extratropical storms in Europe; and 3) low loss activity from Japanese typhoons. This last decade of moderate losses was only interrupted by this year’s hurricane activity with HIM (Harvey, Irma, and Maria) creating insured losses of around USD 100 bn – less than half of the losses that were expected over the last decade. Fuelled by low dividends in the capital market and high non-correlating returns from insurance, investors decided to participate directly in the reinsurance market, i.e. changed their earlier strategy by pushing capital into insurance risk rather than insurance companies. Although having started (on a very small flame) as early as the mid-1990s, this ILS (insurance linked securities) market has exploded recently by adding a growing amount of currently 20% to the existing reinsurance capital. Investors for these ILS products include pension and hedge funds, fund managers, private capital, among others. 2% of the assets managed by pension funds alone could replace the global (re)insurance capital herewith making it possible, if not very likely, that natural catastrophe (re)insurance risk will be managed differently in the foreseeable future. This paper deals with catastrophe risk in the insurance market as well as risk assessment and hedging in an environment that is both changing in terms of hazard and vulnerability but also in its means to assess, assume and trade risk. These changes may bear unprecedented opportunities but also significant threats.","PeriodicalId":21504,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis XI","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75369312","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The model is wrong!” so it is determined. All of the estimated output using the model becomes un-reliable immediately. And so is every other result calculated using the unreliable output. So what is the impact of the model being “wrong” in the later calculations? To address this question, this paper presents a Bayesian approach that provides a quantitative assessment for the impact on downstream results calculated using the unreliable estimates. Section 1 details the practical challenge in the financial industry and discusses why this is important. Section 2 starts the discussion with a description of the overall framework for this Bayesian approach, introducing and defining each individual component. Then Sections 3 and 4 carry on discussing the prior and likelihood distributions, respectively. Section 5 then obtains the target posterior distribution by applying the Bayesian posterior update using obtained prior and likelihood results. Then conditioning on value of the unreliable estimate already in place in the portfolio, the density distribution obtained can be used to update the output of the “wrong” model and assess the impact in further calculations. This approach bridges the practitioners’ initial expectations with the model performance and provides an intuitive quantitative assessment for the impact in the follow-up calculations which are largely affected by the unreliable estimate. The presented approach is the first in literature to raise the concern of uncertain impact caused by “wrong” models and propose a solution. The pioneer demonstration using uncertainty in the loss given default (LGD) models as an example and assessing the impact on the then calculated regulatory capital provides a timely assessment tool for model risk management in the current banking industry. Note that the abuse of the word wrong in quotation marks is an exaggeration of the uncertainty involved, in practice, impact analysis could be requested at any level of uncertainty.
{"title":"IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF LOSS GIVEN DEFAULT (LGD) MODELS’ RISK ON REGULATORY CAPITAL: A BAYESIAN APPROACH","authors":"Yang Liu","doi":"10.2495/RISK180101","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2495/RISK180101","url":null,"abstract":"The model is wrong!” so it is determined. All of the estimated output using the model becomes un-reliable immediately. And so is every other result calculated using the unreliable output. So what is the impact of the model being “wrong” in the later calculations? To address this question, this paper presents a Bayesian approach that provides a quantitative assessment for the impact on downstream results calculated using the unreliable estimates. Section 1 details the practical challenge in the financial industry and discusses why this is important. Section 2 starts the discussion with a description of the overall framework for this Bayesian approach, introducing and defining each individual component. Then Sections 3 and 4 carry on discussing the prior and likelihood distributions, respectively. Section 5 then obtains the target posterior distribution by applying the Bayesian posterior update using obtained prior and likelihood results. Then conditioning on value of the unreliable estimate already in place in the portfolio, the density distribution obtained can be used to update the output of the “wrong” model and assess the impact in further calculations. This approach bridges the practitioners’ initial expectations with the model performance and provides an intuitive quantitative assessment for the impact in the follow-up calculations which are largely affected by the unreliable estimate. The presented approach is the first in literature to raise the concern of uncertain impact caused by “wrong” models and propose a solution. The pioneer demonstration using uncertainty in the loss given default (LGD) models as an example and assessing the impact on the then calculated regulatory capital provides a timely assessment tool for model risk management in the current banking industry. Note that the abuse of the word wrong in quotation marks is an exaggeration of the uncertainty involved, in practice, impact analysis could be requested at any level of uncertainty.","PeriodicalId":21504,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis XI","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73751190","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Climate change has induced changes in key climate variables and hydrological cycles across Canada. With continuous emission of greenhouse gases, this trend is expected to continue over the 21st century and beyond. In this study, a macro-scaled hydrodynamic model is used to simulate 25 km resolution daily streamflow across Canada for historical (1961–2005) and future (2061–2100) timelines. Future projections from 21 General Climate Models (GCMs) following four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are used for analysis. Changes in the frequency and magnitude of historical 100-year and 250-year return period flood events and month of occurrence of peak flow are analyzed. Results obtained from uncertainty analysis for both return period flood events found that flood frequency will increase in most of northern Canada, southern Ontario, southern British Columbia, northern Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. However, northern British Columbia, northern Ontario, Manitoba and north-eastern Quebec will be facing a decrease in flood frequency. Aggregated results indicate early summertime extreme flows in the regions such as Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Quebec, southern Ontario and some parts of Nunavut and Yukon territories, whereas the British Columbia region is mostly projected with increases in wintertime flooding. The projected flood hazard changes at 100 most populous Canadian cities and flow regulation infrastructure (FRI) are used to quantify future changes in flood risk. Results indicate that 40–60% of Canada’s 100 most populated cities including many prominent cities such as Toronto and Montreal are high at risk of increased riverine flooding under climate change. Among the 1,072 FRIs analyzed, 45–60% of them can be expected to experience increases in flood magnitudes in the future whereas 25–60% of them can be expected to experience changes in
{"title":"MODELLING OF FUTURE FLOOD RISK ACROSS CANADA DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE","authors":"Ayushi Gaur, A. Gaur, S. Simonovic","doi":"10.2495/RISK180131","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2495/RISK180131","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change has induced changes in key climate variables and hydrological cycles across Canada. With continuous emission of greenhouse gases, this trend is expected to continue over the 21st century and beyond. In this study, a macro-scaled hydrodynamic model is used to simulate 25 km resolution daily streamflow across Canada for historical (1961–2005) and future (2061–2100) timelines. Future projections from 21 General Climate Models (GCMs) following four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are used for analysis. Changes in the frequency and magnitude of historical 100-year and 250-year return period flood events and month of occurrence of peak flow are analyzed. Results obtained from uncertainty analysis for both return period flood events found that flood frequency will increase in most of northern Canada, southern Ontario, southern British Columbia, northern Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. However, northern British Columbia, northern Ontario, Manitoba and north-eastern Quebec will be facing a decrease in flood frequency. Aggregated results indicate early summertime extreme flows in the regions such as Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Quebec, southern Ontario and some parts of Nunavut and Yukon territories, whereas the British Columbia region is mostly projected with increases in wintertime flooding. The projected flood hazard changes at 100 most populous Canadian cities and flow regulation infrastructure (FRI) are used to quantify future changes in flood risk. Results indicate that 40–60% of Canada’s 100 most populated cities including many prominent cities such as Toronto and Montreal are high at risk of increased riverine flooding under climate change. Among the 1,072 FRIs analyzed, 45–60% of them can be expected to experience increases in flood magnitudes in the future whereas 25–60% of them can be expected to experience changes in","PeriodicalId":21504,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis XI","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86435079","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
D. Noonan, Lilliard E. Richardson, Abdul-Akeem Sadiq
This study analyzes which communities adopted flood risk management practices during the past 25 years. In particular, we focus on community-scale flood management efforts undertaken voluntarily in towns and counties across the United States. In 1990, the US Federal Emergency Management Agency created the Community Rating System (CRS) to provide incentives to local governments to improve flood resilience. About 1,300 counties and cities voluntarily participate in the CRS, but most eligible communities do not participate. Here, we explore the factors shaping community CRS participation, such as flood risk, socio-economic characteristics, and economic resources, and we assess the competing phenomena of policy diffusion versus free riding. Previous models of community-scale flood mitigation activities have all considered each community’s decision as independent of one another. Yet one community’s flood management activities might directly or indirectly influence its neighbors’ mitigation efforts. Spillover effects or “contagion” may arise if neighboring communities learn from or seek to emulate or outcompete early adopting neighbors. Conversely, stricter regulation in one community may allow its neighbors to capitalize on looser regulation either by attracting more development or enjoying reduced “downstream” flood risks. This paper presents a conceptual model that allows for multiple forces affecting diffusion, such as copycatting and learning from neighboring communities, free-riding on neighbors’ efforts, and competing with neighbors to provide valuable amenities. We empirically test for these alternative diffusion pathways after controlling for the spatially correlated extant flood risks, building patterns, and demographics. The analysis integrates several large datasets to predict community flood risk management for all cities and counties in the US since 1990. Controls for local flood risk combined with a spatial lag regression model allow separate identification of alternative diffusion pathways. The results indicate strong evidence of copycatting and also suggest possible free-riding.
{"title":"POLICY DIFFUSION IN COMMUNITY-SCALE FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT","authors":"D. Noonan, Lilliard E. Richardson, Abdul-Akeem Sadiq","doi":"10.2495/RISK180071","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2495/RISK180071","url":null,"abstract":"This study analyzes which communities adopted flood risk management practices during the past 25 years. In particular, we focus on community-scale flood management efforts undertaken voluntarily in towns and counties across the United States. In 1990, the US Federal Emergency Management Agency created the Community Rating System (CRS) to provide incentives to local governments to improve flood resilience. About 1,300 counties and cities voluntarily participate in the CRS, but most eligible communities do not participate. Here, we explore the factors shaping community CRS participation, such as flood risk, socio-economic characteristics, and economic resources, and we assess the competing phenomena of policy diffusion versus free riding. Previous models of community-scale flood mitigation activities have all considered each community’s decision as independent of one another. Yet one community’s flood management activities might directly or indirectly influence its neighbors’ mitigation efforts. Spillover effects or “contagion” may arise if neighboring communities learn from or seek to emulate or outcompete early adopting neighbors. Conversely, stricter regulation in one community may allow its neighbors to capitalize on looser regulation either by attracting more development or enjoying reduced “downstream” flood risks. This paper presents a conceptual model that allows for multiple forces affecting diffusion, such as copycatting and learning from neighboring communities, free-riding on neighbors’ efforts, and competing with neighbors to provide valuable amenities. We empirically test for these alternative diffusion pathways after controlling for the spatially correlated extant flood risks, building patterns, and demographics. The analysis integrates several large datasets to predict community flood risk management for all cities and counties in the US since 1990. Controls for local flood risk combined with a spatial lag regression model allow separate identification of alternative diffusion pathways. The results indicate strong evidence of copycatting and also suggest possible free-riding.","PeriodicalId":21504,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis XI","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75936051","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Hyonjeong Noh, Min-Bong Park, Kwangu Kang, Su-gil Cho, Tae-Sam Yoon
ABSTRACT Mobile Offshore Drilling Units (MODUs) are in charge of drilling operations at offshore environment. A derrick system, which handles drill pipes, risers, casing, blowout preventer, etc., and delivers such equipment to subsea is one of most important part in MODUs. Among the derrick system equipment, a top drive machine is regarded as the most dangerous because of the unexpected swinging movement of a tope drive machine by large wave. As a top drive machine is heavy and large, this swinging movement can lead workers to injuries or fatality. In this regards, this study aims to identify risky tasks related to a top drive machine during its maintenance and to suggest risk reducing measures by conducting a Job Safety Analysis. We categorized the maintenance tasks depending on the six top drive machine equipment and analysed their hazards and consequences. Among these tasks, maintenance of the weight compensating system was judged to be the most dangerous job, and measures to reduce the risk were proposed. The results of this study could be used to lower the risk of future drilling work.
{"title":"JOB SAFETY ANALYSIS OF A TOP DRIVE MACHINE IN MOBILE OFFSHORE DRILLING UNITS","authors":"Hyonjeong Noh, Min-Bong Park, Kwangu Kang, Su-gil Cho, Tae-Sam Yoon","doi":"10.2495/RISK180191","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2495/RISK180191","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Mobile Offshore Drilling Units (MODUs) are in charge of drilling operations at offshore environment. A derrick system, which handles drill pipes, risers, casing, blowout preventer, etc., and delivers such equipment to subsea is one of most important part in MODUs. Among the derrick system equipment, a top drive machine is regarded as the most dangerous because of the unexpected swinging movement of a tope drive machine by large wave. As a top drive machine is heavy and large, this swinging movement can lead workers to injuries or fatality. In this regards, this study aims to identify risky tasks related to a top drive machine during its maintenance and to suggest risk reducing measures by conducting a Job Safety Analysis. We categorized the maintenance tasks depending on the six top drive machine equipment and analysed their hazards and consequences. Among these tasks, maintenance of the weight compensating system was judged to be the most dangerous job, and measures to reduce the risk were proposed. The results of this study could be used to lower the risk of future drilling work.","PeriodicalId":21504,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis XI","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81695746","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
With the occurrence of repeated drought damage, there has been a need for government-level R&D support for scientific drought management from the mid-to long-term perspective in Korea. Because government agencies related to drought such as the Korea Meteorological Administration, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, Ministry of Food, Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, and Ministry of Public Safety and Security, have been independently performing drought forecasting-warning, the president decided to establish integrated forecasting-warning system for drought prevention and effective drought management. In the present study, accordingly, we introduce the integrated drought forecasting-warning system in Korea. The Ministry of Public Safety and Security, as control tower, announces integrated drought information (Meteorological, Living and Industrial, Agricultural drought) to the public including investigation of local government situation. An announcement cycle is early of the month and target region is 167 provinces. Verification of drought information provided by each ministry was used by RDI. Final research purpose develops National Drought Information Integrated Forecasting-warning Technique Development. We expect that such efforts will be able to minimize drought damages and allow for pre-emptive prevention of droughts.
{"title":"INTRODUCTION OF A DROUGHT FORECASTING/WARNING SYSTEM AND IMPROVEMENT METHODS IN THE REPUBLIC OF KOREA","authors":"H. Yoon, J. Ahn, Gwak, Yongseok, Bo-ra Lee","doi":"10.2495/risk180091","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2495/risk180091","url":null,"abstract":"With the occurrence of repeated drought damage, there has been a need for government-level R&D support for scientific drought management from the mid-to long-term perspective in Korea. Because government agencies related to drought such as the Korea Meteorological Administration, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, Ministry of Food, Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, and Ministry of Public Safety and Security, have been independently performing drought forecasting-warning, the president decided to establish integrated forecasting-warning system for drought prevention and effective drought management. In the present study, accordingly, we introduce the integrated drought forecasting-warning system in Korea. The Ministry of Public Safety and Security, as control tower, announces integrated drought information (Meteorological, Living and Industrial, Agricultural drought) to the public including investigation of local government situation. An announcement cycle is early of the month and target region is 167 provinces. Verification of drought information provided by each ministry was used by RDI. Final research purpose develops National Drought Information Integrated Forecasting-warning Technique Development. We expect that such efforts will be able to minimize drought damages and allow for pre-emptive prevention of droughts.","PeriodicalId":21504,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis XI","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88603492","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In the present paper we describe the application of terrestrial Bluetooth-based sensors for the purpose of traffic and person monitoring during large scale events. By the example of a worldwide renowned music festival, a case study was carried out during actual operating business of the event. The aim of this case study was, on the one hand, to automatically collect anonymised data of the current traffic situation along the arrival roads, and on the other hand, data according to the local number of persons at specific points of interest on the event area throughout the entire duration of the festival. The results of the case study are presented and evaluated within the paper. It turned out that the usage of locally deployed Bluetooth-based sensors allows adequate continuous time measurement which is able to register reliable situation changes in the local concentration of people over the course of the day. The findings are accompanied by referencing results from aerial imagery which were recorded from parallel conducted flight monitoring and which support the observations made from the terrestrial monitoring. With the results of the paper, the authors want to contribute to the research on safety concepts for large scale event. Therefore, we aim to demonstrate that with relatively little effort and low costs an ad-hoc sensor network can be installed and operated, which allocates reliable information on the current situation for the event organizer and, thus provides an adequate data base for professional responders in order to efficiently initiate and execute evacuation measures in case of potential risks.
{"title":"SUPPORTING FIRST RESPONDERS BY TERRESTRIAL BLUETOOTH-BASED TRAFFIC MONITORING IN THE CASE OF LARGE-SCALE EVENTS","authors":"Gaby Gurczik, R. Nippold, Frederik Nimphius","doi":"10.2495/RISK180261","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2495/RISK180261","url":null,"abstract":"In the present paper we describe the application of terrestrial Bluetooth-based sensors for the purpose of traffic and person monitoring during large scale events. By the example of a worldwide renowned music festival, a case study was carried out during actual operating business of the event. The aim of this case study was, on the one hand, to automatically collect anonymised data of the current traffic situation along the arrival roads, and on the other hand, data according to the local number of persons at specific points of interest on the event area throughout the entire duration of the festival. \u0000The results of the case study are presented and evaluated within the paper. It turned out that the usage of locally deployed Bluetooth-based sensors allows adequate continuous time measurement which is able to register reliable situation changes in the local concentration of people over the course of the day. The findings are accompanied by referencing results from aerial imagery which were recorded from parallel conducted flight monitoring and which support the observations made from the terrestrial monitoring. \u0000With the results of the paper, the authors want to contribute to the research on safety concepts for large scale event. Therefore, we aim to demonstrate that with relatively little effort and low costs an ad-hoc sensor network can be installed and operated, which allocates reliable information on the current situation for the event organizer and, thus provides an adequate data base for professional responders in order to efficiently initiate and execute evacuation measures in case of potential risks.","PeriodicalId":21504,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis XI","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83677921","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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