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The Effect of the Texas Migrant Busing Program on the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election 德克萨斯州移民巴士计划对2024年美国总统大选的影响
IF 3.4 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-03-10 DOI: 10.15195/v13.a11
William Scarborough, Ronald Kwon, David Brady
From 2022 to 2024, Texas transported more than 100,000 migrants from the U.S.–Mexico border to six cities led by Democratic mayors, creating a unique migration shock far from the border. We use county-level data to estimate the program’s effects on presidential elections. Comparing two elections prior to the program (2016–2020) with one after (2024), we find that the busing program increased Trump’s vote share by more than three percentage points in treated counties. These effects are robust to alternative analyses. To explore mechanisms further, we analyze individual-level data from AP VoteCast. The increase in Trump’s vote share in places receiving buses was driven by swing voters and elevated Republican turnout. Swing voters in busing destinations were moved to Trump by amplified concerns with crime, whereas Republican turnout was linked to heightened concerns over immigration. Our findings highlight the enduring power of minority threat and the growing role of subnational immigration policies.
从2022年到2024年,德克萨斯州从美墨边境运送了10万多名移民到民主党市长领导的六个城市,造成了远离边境的独特移民冲击。我们使用县级数据来估计该项目对总统选举的影响。将该计划实施前的两次选举(2016-2020年)与实施后的两次选举(2024年)进行比较,我们发现,在该计划实施的县,特朗普的选票份额增加了三个百分点以上。这些效应对于替代分析是稳健的。为了进一步探索机制,我们分析了AP VoteCast的个人层面数据。特朗普在接收公交车的地区的得票率上升,是由摇摆选民和共和党投票率上升推动的。公交目的地的摇摆选民因为对犯罪的担忧加剧而转向了特朗普,而共和党的投票率则与对移民的担忧加剧有关。我们的研究结果突出了少数族裔威胁的持久力量和地方移民政策日益重要的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Is College Really “the” Equalizer? New Evidence Addressing Unobserved Selection 大学真的是“均衡器”吗?解决未观察选择的新证据
IF 3.4 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-03-03 DOI: 10.15195/v13.a10
Haowen Zheng, Robert Andersen , Anders Holm, Kristian Bernt Karlson
Influential research shows that college graduates achieve similar labor market outcomes regardless of socioeconomic origin, leading to the view that a college degree is a “great equalizer.” Still, other evidence suggests that family background continues to shape labor market outcomes long after graduation, implying that college’s equalizing effect may largely reflect the characteristics of those who pursue higher education. However, the role of unobserved selection into college has rarely been examined. After formally illustrating how this unobserved selection can bias estimates of the college effect, we present new analyses that correct for this bias using an instrumental-variable approach on white male respondents in the 1979 cohort of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. The selection-corrected results suggest that intergenerational mobility is similar among college graduates and nongraduates. Although college yields substantial returns for all, these returns do not differ by family background. We conclude that for higher education to serve as a true equalizer, it must become both less selective and more accessible to students from disadvantaged backgrounds.
有影响力的研究表明,无论社会经济背景如何,大学毕业生在劳动力市场上的表现都是相似的,这导致了大学学位是“伟大的均衡器”的观点。然而,其他证据表明,家庭背景在毕业后很长一段时间内仍在影响劳动力市场的结果,这意味着大学的均衡效应可能在很大程度上反映了那些追求高等教育的人的特点。然而,未观察到的大学录取的作用很少被研究。在正式说明了这种未观察到的选择如何使大学效应的估计产生偏差之后,我们提出了新的分析,使用工具变量方法对1979年全国青年纵向调查队列中的白人男性受访者进行了纠正这种偏差。经过选择校正的结果表明,大学毕业生和非大学毕业生的代际流动性相似。虽然上大学对所有人都有可观的回报,但这些回报并不因家庭背景而异。我们的结论是,高等教育要想真正起到均衡器的作用,就必须减少对来自弱势背景的学生的选择性,并让他们更容易接受。
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引用次数: 0
Early Childhood Investments and Women’s Work Outcomes across the Life Course 儿童早期投资与妇女整个生命历程的工作成果
IF 3.4 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-02-24 DOI: 10.15195/v13.a9
Vida Maralani, Camille Portier, Berkay Özcan
This study investigates variability in women’s experiences balancing work and family, focusing on the association between early childhood investments and work trajectories. Using longitudinal data and event study models, we examine work participation from two years before to 10 years after first birth across different early childhood investment levels. Although sustained intensive investment is associated with the largest reduction in paid work, the relationship between child investment and work outcomes does not follow a simple “more investment, less work” pattern. Instead, investment intensity and duration both shape work trajectories. Women with more intensive short-term practices or moderate longer-term ones work at similar levels as women making lower investments. Patterns also differ by work outcome: not working is most differentiated by sustained intensive child investment, whereas hours worked are similar across a range of investment levels. Finally, women with constrained family resources consistently work more than those married to college-educated spouses.
本研究调查了女性在平衡工作和家庭方面的经验差异,重点关注儿童早期投资与工作轨迹之间的关系。利用纵向数据和事件研究模型,我们考察了不同儿童早期投资水平下,从出生前两年到出生后10年的工作参与情况。尽管持续的密集投资与有偿工作的最大减少有关,但儿童投资与工作成果之间的关系并不遵循简单的“更多投资,更少工作”模式。相反,投资强度和持续时间都决定了工作轨迹。从事较密集短期活动或较中度长期活动的妇女与从事较低投资的妇女的工作水平相似。模式也因工作结果而异:不工作的最大区别在于持续的密集儿童投资,而工作时间在各种投资水平上是相似的。最后,家庭资源有限的女性总是比那些配偶受过大学教育的女性工作得更多。
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引用次数: 0
Force of Attraction and Partner Availability in the U.S. Marriage Market: A Two-Sided Matching Model 美国婚姻市场中的吸引力和伴侣可获得性:一个双边匹配模型
IF 3.4 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-02-17 DOI: 10.15195/v13.a8
Yuan Cheng, John K. Dagsvik, Xuehui Han, Zhiyang Jia
This article develops and applies a stochastic two-sided matching model to analyze marriage patterns in the United States using 1 percent samples from the 2010 and 2019 American Community Survey, accessed via the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series. This approach disentangles two sources of change in marriage patterns over time: individuals’ preferences for partner characteristics (“forces of attraction”) and the numbers and composition of potential partners (“partner availability”). As illustrated by our empirical application, the model provides a flexible and unified analytical framework to address a broad range of relevant questions in marriage research, offering valuable new perspectives on marriage dynamics and facilitating future research, despite the limitation that the model does not separately identify individual-specific preferences.
本文开发并应用了一个随机双边匹配模型,使用2010年和2019年美国社区调查中的1%样本来分析美国的婚姻模式,这些样本通过综合公共使用微数据系列获得。这种方法解开了婚姻模式随时间变化的两个来源:个人对伴侣特征的偏好(“吸引力”)和潜在伴侣的数量和组成(“伴侣可用性”)。正如我们的实证应用所示,该模型提供了一个灵活而统一的分析框架,以解决婚姻研究中广泛的相关问题,为婚姻动态提供了有价值的新视角,并促进了未来的研究,尽管该模型没有单独确定个人特定偏好的局限性。
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引用次数: 0
The Faith Factor. How Scholars’ Religiosity Biases Research Findings on Secularization 信仰因素。学者的宗教信仰如何影响世俗化研究成果
IF 3.4 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-02-10 DOI: 10.15195/v13.a7
Valeria Rainero, Jörg Stolz, Ruud Luijkx
Secularization is one of the most debated areas of research in current sociology of religion. Despite hundreds of empirical studies, researchers do not even agree on the very existence of secularization in different parts of the world. This article investigates whether some of the variability in findings may be attributed not to the social reality investigated but to bias in the form of researchers’ own religiosity. Specifically, we test whether researchers’ religiosity is correlated with two outcomes: their personal belief in the secularization thesis and the likelihood of supporting secularization in their published articles. To address this question, we constructed an international database of scholars working on secularization and conducted a survey measuring their religiosity and beliefs about religious decline. We then coded their publications according to whether they supported the secularization thesis and linked the two data sets. We find significant evidence of a “(non-)religious bias.” Either in their private attitudes or public writings, religious researchers find less evidence for the secularization thesis, whereas secular scholars find more. This result cannot be explained by differences in research methods, study quality, or the religious and geographic contexts under investigation.
世俗化是当前宗教社会学研究中最具争议的领域之一。尽管有数百项实证研究,研究者们甚至不同意世俗化在世界不同地区的存在。这篇文章调查了研究结果的一些可变性是否可能不是由于所调查的社会现实,而是由于研究人员自己的宗教信仰形式的偏见。具体来说,我们测试了研究人员的宗教信仰是否与两个结果相关:他们对世俗化论文的个人信仰和他们在发表的文章中支持世俗化的可能性。为了解决这个问题,我们建立了一个研究世俗化的学者的国际数据库,并对他们的宗教虔诚度和对宗教衰落的看法进行了调查。然后,我们根据他们是否支持世俗化论点对他们的出版物进行编码,并将两个数据集联系起来。我们发现了“(非)宗教偏见”的重要证据。无论是在他们的私人态度还是在他们的公开著作中,宗教研究者为世俗化论点找到的证据较少,而世俗学者找到的证据较多。这一结果不能用研究方法、研究质量或调查对象的宗教和地理背景的差异来解释。
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引用次数: 0
Poor Neighborhoods, Bad Schools? A High-Dimensional Model of Place-Based Disparities in Academic Achievement 贫穷的社区,糟糕的学校?学业成绩地域差异的高维模型
IF 3.4 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.15195/v13.a6
Geoffrey T. Wodtke, Kailey White, Xiang Zhou
Persistent disparities in academic achievement between students from high- and low- poverty neighborhoods are widely attributed to differences in school quality. Using nationally representative data from more than 18,000 students and nearly 1,000 elementary schools, we examine how the schools serving students from different neighborhoods vary across more than 160 characteristics, including detailed measures of their composition, resources, instruction, climate, and effectiveness. Our findings document significant differences in demographic composition between schools serving high- and low-poverty neighborhoods but comparatively little variation in other dimensions of the school environment. With novel machine learning methods tailored for high-dimensional data, we estimate that equalizing all these different factors would reduce the achievement gap by less than 10 percent, primarily through changes in school composition. These results suggest that the main drivers of place-based disparities in achievement lie outside of elementary schools, underscoring the need to address broader structural inequalities as part of any effort to reduce achievement gaps.
来自高贫困社区和低贫困社区的学生在学业成绩上的持续差异被广泛归因于学校质量的差异。使用来自全国18,000多名学生和近1,000所小学的代表性数据,我们研究了为来自不同社区的学生提供服务的学校在160多个特征上的差异,包括其组成、资源、教学、气候和有效性的详细衡量标准。我们的研究结果表明,服务于高贫困社区和低贫困社区的学校在人口构成方面存在显著差异,但在学校环境的其他方面差异相对较小。通过为高维数据量身定制的新型机器学习方法,我们估计,平衡所有这些不同的因素将主要通过改变学校构成来减少不到10%的成绩差距。这些结果表明,基于地方的成就差异的主要驱动因素不在小学,强调需要解决更广泛的结构性不平等,作为缩小成就差距的努力的一部分。
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引用次数: 0
How Measurement Changes Can Exaggerate the Growth of Religious “Nones” 衡量标准的变化如何夸大宗教“无信仰者”的增长
IF 3.4 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.15195/v13.a5
Matthew Conrad, Conrad Hackett
Academic and popular interest in nonreligion has risen in parallel with the growth of religiously unaffiliated populations. In many countries, census and survey questions used to measure religion have been modified to better capture nonreligious identities. Little attention has been given to how these changes in measures affect specific claims about the rise of the “nones.” Although there is no doubt that religiously unaffiliated populations have grown in many countries during the twenty- first century, the degree of such growth has sometimes been exaggerated due to measurement effects. We review methodological issues that affect the estimates of the size of religiously unaffiliated populations and their change over time. We call for further study to quantify the effect of these changes.
学术界和大众对非宗教的兴趣随着无宗教信仰人口的增长而上升。在许多国家,用于衡量宗教信仰的人口普查和调查问题已经被修改,以更好地捕捉非宗教身份。很少有人注意到这些衡量标准的变化是如何影响有关“无者”人数上升的具体说法的。毫无疑问,在21世纪,无宗教信仰的人口在许多国家都有所增长,但由于测量效应,这种增长的程度有时被夸大了。我们回顾了影响无宗教信仰人口规模估计及其随时间变化的方法问题。我们呼吁进一步研究以量化这些变化的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Ambiguous Actorhood: Twenty-First Century Firms and the Evasion of Responsibility 模棱两可的行为:21世纪的企业和责任的逃避
IF 3.4 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.15195/v13.a4
Carly R. Knight, Adam Goldstein
Sociologists have long argued that the cultural construction of organizations as social actors underpins public expectations of corporate accountability. In recent decades, however, the unified bureaucratic structures that once sustained this construction have given way to increasingly fragmented and opaque organizational forms. This study considers to what extent the diffuse, often illegible nature of twenty-first century corporations undermines the ability of public audiences to demand corporate accountability. We argue that complex, fragmented organizational configurations allow firms to partially evade the negative reputational consequences of misconduct by confounding audiences and obfuscating the “actor” behind the bad organizational action. Drawing on a vignette- based survey experiment, we test whether fragmentation reduces attributions of blame following corporate wrongdoing. Consistent with our hypotheses, we find that while respondents generally attribute high levels of blame for wrongdoing, greater fragmentation decreases the blame directed at core firms and heightens audiences’ uncertainty about responsibility. Moreover, in fragmented structures, blame is not simply redistributed to auxiliary entities but is diminished overall. These findings suggest that as corporate structures grow more complex and less legible, the underlying actors behind organizational action become harder to identify and construct, and thereby harder to hold to account.
社会学家长期以来一直认为,作为社会行动者的组织的文化建设支撑着公众对企业责任的期望。然而,近几十年来,曾经维持这种结构的统一的官僚结构已经让位于日益分散和不透明的组织形式。这项研究考虑了21世纪公司的分散、往往难以辨认的性质在多大程度上削弱了公众受众要求公司问责的能力。我们认为,复杂、碎片化的组织结构允许企业通过混淆受众和混淆不良组织行为背后的“行动者”来部分逃避不当行为的负面声誉后果。利用基于小插曲的调查实验,我们测试了碎片化是否减少了企业不法行为后的责任归因。与我们的假设一致,我们发现,虽然受访者普遍将过错归咎于较高水平,但更大的碎片化减少了针对核心公司的指责,并增加了受众对责任的不确定性。此外,在碎片化的结构中,责任不是简单地重新分配给辅助实体,而是总体上减少了。这些发现表明,随着公司结构变得越来越复杂,越来越难以辨认,组织行为背后的潜在参与者变得越来越难以识别和构建,因此也越来越难以承担责任。
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引用次数: 0
Generative AI in Sociological Research: State of the Discipline 社会学研究中的生成人工智能:学科现状
IF 3.4 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.15195/v13.a3
AJ Alvero, Dustin S. Stoltz, Oscar Stuhler, Marshall A. Taylor
Generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) has garnered considerable attention for its poten- tial utility in research and scholarship, even among those who typically do not rely on computational tools. However, early commentators have also articulated concerns about how GenAI usage comes with enormous environmental costs, serious social risks, and a tendency to produce low-quality content. In the midst of both excitement and skepticism, it is crucial to take stock of how GenAI is actually being used. Our study focuses on sociological research as our site, and here we present findings from a survey of 433 authors of articles published in 50 sociology journals in the past five years. The survey provides an overview of the state of the discipline with regard to the use of GenAI by providing answers to fundamental questions: how (much) do scholars use the technology for their research; what are their reasons for using it; and how concerned, trustful, and optimistic are they about the technology? Of the approximately one third of respondents who self-report using GenAI at least weekly, the primary uses are for writing assistance and comparatively less so in planning, data collection, or data analysis. In both use and attitudes, there are surprisingly few differences between self-identified computational and non-computational researchers. In general, respondents are very concerned about the social and environmental consequences of GenAI. Trust in GenAI outputs is low, regardless of expertise or frequency of use. Although optimism that GenAI will improve is high, scholars are divided on whether GenAI will have a positive impact on the field.
生成式人工智能(GenAI)因其在研究和学术领域的潜在效用而获得了相当大的关注,即使在那些通常不依赖计算工具的人当中也是如此。然而,早期的评论员也表达了对GenAI的使用如何带来巨大的环境成本、严重的社会风险以及产生低质量内容的趋势的担忧。在兴奋和怀疑之中,评估GenAI的实际使用情况是至关重要的。我们的研究重点是社会学研究,在这里,我们展示了对过去五年中在50家社会学期刊上发表文章的433位作者的调查结果。该调查通过回答一些基本问题,概述了有关GenAI使用的学科状况:学者在研究中使用该技术的情况(多少);他们使用它的原因是什么?他们对这项技术有多关心、多信任、多乐观?在自我报告至少每周使用GenAI的受访者中,大约有三分之一的人主要用于写作辅助,而在计划、数据收集或数据分析方面的使用相对较少。在使用和态度上,令人惊讶的是,在自认为是计算研究者和非计算研究者之间几乎没有什么不同。总的来说,受访者非常关注基因人工智能的社会和环境后果。无论专业知识或使用频率如何,对GenAI产出的信任度都很低。尽管人们对GenAI的进步非常乐观,但学者们在GenAI是否会对该领域产生积极影响的问题上存在分歧。
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引用次数: 0
The Forward March of Categorical Tolerance in the United States 美国的“绝对宽容”运动
IF 3.4 2区 社会学 Q1 SOCIOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.15195/v13.a2
Omar Lizardo
This article updates the empirical picture of categorical tolerance (CT), namely, the pattern of refusing to report dislikes across cultural genres, for the third decade of the twenty-first century in the United States. Analyzing recent survey data from two platforms, I find that CT has continued its march among Americans, reaching approximately one in five respondents. The analysis confirms earlier-observed demographic trends, showing that CT is strongly associated with younger cohorts and non-white individuals. However, I also find that individuals reporting the highest educational attainment are now overrepresented among categorical tolerants, suggesting that CT may increasingly function as an elite cultural strategy consistent with contemporary forms of status display, signaling openness and refusal to refuse. Furthermore, I find that while the odds of being a CT are not strongly polarized by political ideology, the inclination toward symbolic exclusion among non-CTs is, with conservatives significantly more likely to express a greater volume of cultural dislikes than liberals.
本文更新了美国21世纪第三个十年的分类容忍(CT)的经验图景,即拒绝报告跨文化类型的厌恶的模式。通过分析两个平台最近的调查数据,我发现CT在美国人中继续流行,大约有五分之一的受访者使用CT。该分析证实了早期观察到的人口趋势,表明CT与年轻人群和非白人人群密切相关。然而,我也发现,报告受教育程度最高的人现在在绝对容忍者中所占的比例过高,这表明CT可能越来越多地作为一种精英文化策略,与当代形式的地位展示相一致,表明开放和拒绝拒绝。此外,我发现,虽然成为CT的几率并没有因政治意识形态而强烈分化,但非CT倾向于象征性地排斥,保守派明显比自由派更有可能表达更多的文化厌恶。
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引用次数: 0
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