The financial scandals of the last decades have largely been attributed to the recklessness of corporate managers in the diffused (dispersed) ownership system, and excesses of controlling shareholders in the concentrated ownership structure. Coffee described the dispersed ownership system as market-driven with each stockholder owning a piece of the corporation whereas, concentrated ownership system relies on the controlling majority (Coffee, 2005), and mostly owned by family. The fall of companies like Enron, Parmalat, WorldCom, Nortel Networks and others have largely been the focus of financial economists in the recent history. Financial statement restatement, high market expectation for future growth, and lack of auditors’ independence have been linked to the downfall of these companies. In consequence, government introduced the long-awaited legislation in Sarbanes and Oxley Act (2002) with the aim of forcing companies into good corporate governance.
{"title":"Can Governance Be the Solution to the Reactive Nature of Laws?","authors":"Yomi Olalere","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3510479","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3510479","url":null,"abstract":"The financial scandals of the last decades have largely been attributed to the recklessness of corporate managers in the diffused (dispersed) ownership system, and excesses of controlling shareholders in the concentrated ownership structure. Coffee described the dispersed ownership system as market-driven with each stockholder owning a piece of the corporation whereas, concentrated ownership system relies on the controlling majority (Coffee, 2005), and mostly owned by family. The fall of companies like Enron, Parmalat, WorldCom, Nortel Networks and others have largely been the focus of financial economists in the recent history. Financial statement restatement, high market expectation for future growth, and lack of auditors’ independence have been linked to the downfall of these companies. In consequence, government introduced the long-awaited legislation in Sarbanes and Oxley Act (2002) with the aim of forcing companies into good corporate governance.","PeriodicalId":22151,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Corporate Governance (Topic)","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85365590","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
J. Jin, K. Kanagaretnam, Gerald J. Lobo, Robert Mathieu
Using a sample of public and private banks, we study how social capital relates to bank stability. Social capital, which reflects the level of cooperative norms in society, is likely to reduce opportunistic behavior (Jha and Chen 2015; Hasan et al., 2017) and, therefore, act as an informal monitoring mechanism. Consistent with our expectations, we find that banks in high social capital regions experienced fewer failures and less financial trouble during the 2007–2010 financial crisis than banks in low social capital regions. In addition, we find that social capital was negatively associated with abnormal risk-taking and positively associated with accounting transparency and accounting conservatism in the pre-crisis period of 2000–2006, indicating that risk-taking, accounting transparency, and accounting conservatism are possible channels through which social capital affected bank stability during the crisis.
本文以公共银行和私营银行为样本，研究了社会资本与银行稳定性的关系。反映社会合作规范水平的社会资本可能会减少机会主义行为(Jha and Chen 2015;Hasan等人，2017)，因此，作为一种非正式的监测机制。与我们的预期一致，我们发现在2007-2010年金融危机期间，高社会资本地区的银行比低社会资本地区的银行经历了更少的倒闭和财务问题。此外，我们发现在危机前2000-2006年，社会资本与异常风险承担呈负相关，与会计透明度和会计稳健性呈正相关，表明风险承担、会计透明度和会计稳健性是危机期间社会资本影响银行稳定性的可能渠道。
{"title":"Social Capital and Bank Stability","authors":"J. Jin, K. Kanagaretnam, Gerald J. Lobo, Robert Mathieu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2906476","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2906476","url":null,"abstract":"Using a sample of public and private banks, we study how social capital relates to bank stability. Social capital, which reflects the level of cooperative norms in society, is likely to reduce opportunistic behavior (Jha and Chen 2015; Hasan et al., 2017) and, therefore, act as an informal monitoring mechanism. Consistent with our expectations, we find that banks in high social capital regions experienced fewer failures and less financial trouble during the 2007–2010 financial crisis than banks in low social capital regions. In addition, we find that social capital was negatively associated with abnormal risk-taking and positively associated with accounting transparency and accounting conservatism in the pre-crisis period of 2000–2006, indicating that risk-taking, accounting transparency, and accounting conservatism are possible channels through which social capital affected bank stability during the crisis.","PeriodicalId":22151,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Corporate Governance (Topic)","volume":"90 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83923491","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Senior leadership has two primary levers to influence a direct report: incentives and communication. Financial incentives are credible and precisely specified but offer limited flexibility. In contrast, communication is flexible but lacks precision, and must be deemed credible to affect a direct report’s actions. We study a setting where senior leadership seeks to add a new initiative to their organization’s portfolio. The initiative’s potential to create value is not initially well understood. Senior leadership eventually obtains more precise information on the initiative’s value and subsequently may communicate this information to their direct report. We analyze senior leadership’s incentive and communication decisions, and ultimately their portfolio decision. We find that senior leadership’s communication only affects a direct report’s actions when a new initiative’s potential to create value is sufficiently uncertain. Additionally, we find instances where an organization may benefit from communication...
{"title":"Communication, Incentives, and the Execution of a Strategic Initiative","authors":"Jeremy Hutchison-Krupat","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2430904","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2430904","url":null,"abstract":"Senior leadership has two primary levers to influence a direct report: incentives and communication. Financial incentives are credible and precisely specified but offer limited flexibility. In contrast, communication is flexible but lacks precision, and must be deemed credible to affect a direct report’s actions. We study a setting where senior leadership seeks to add a new initiative to their organization’s portfolio. The initiative’s potential to create value is not initially well understood. Senior leadership eventually obtains more precise information on the initiative’s value and subsequently may communicate this information to their direct report. We analyze senior leadership’s incentive and communication decisions, and ultimately their portfolio decision. We find that senior leadership’s communication only affects a direct report’s actions when a new initiative’s potential to create value is sufficiently uncertain. Additionally, we find instances where an organization may benefit from communication...","PeriodicalId":22151,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Corporate Governance (Topic)","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78850484","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Malobi Mukherjee, R. Ramírez, Richard W. Cuthbertson
This paper makes two contributions to strategic management research. It positions scenarios research as a way to connect micro, meso, and macro level cognitive framing (Cornelissen and Werner, 2014) regarding environmental uncertainties. This extends the boundaries of strategy as practice by involving extra organizational actors in strategy praxis to ascertain macro level uncertainties (Vaara and Whittington, 2012, Floyd, 2011) and by linking the complex connections between the micro, meso and macro praxis (Jarzabowski and Spee 2009).The paper considers the role of a scenarios methodology in strategic management with respect to two unrelated case studies – a real estate firm, and a trade association, with and about whom two of the researchers have a detailed knowledge since 2009. While the findings we report here must be treated as exploratory, they do conform to a pattern of findings that a broader six year old research effort has been producing (Ramirez et al, 2015). The findings also conform to the way sociology has been treating the ‘framing’ of issues since Goffman (1974) popularized the construct. As Cornelissen & Werner’s (2014) recent review of framing suggests, the field includes ‘micro’ (individual) level research concerning the cognitive frame, frame of reference, and the framing effects involved; ‘meso’ (organizational) level research about what strategic frame, technological framing, and collective action framing take place; and ‘macro-level’ research at the field level including institutional frames as well as framing contexts. This paper establishes that scenarios research allows management to clearly connect what Pierre Wack (1985) famously called the microscope of the mind to the macroscope of the world accessed with scenarios; it does so by respectively reframing roles and relationships at the micro and meso levels.This paper is also a response to the call made by Vaara and Whittington (2012) to broaden the analyses of strategy-making, moving away from a strong emphasis on the ability of individual managers or management teams to steer an organization to instead become more concerned with placing agency in a web of practices. Accordingly, Whittington et al (2003) proposed that strategy be investigated as a field or social system characterised by connections between corporate elites, strategy consultants, financial institutions, state agencies, the business media, and business schools with an emphasis on understanding how these interactions contribute to the production and consumption of particular kinds of strategy discourse. This paper establishes that taking a scenarios approach can help strategists in firms in turbulent environments (Emery and Trist, 1965) to host diverse views without having to reach agreement, and so more readily comprehend the relevance, complexity, and potential impacts of such a web of practices. By having a small set of scenarios that disagree with each other but do so within different futures, the view
{"title":"Scenarios Research and Cognitive Reframing: Implications for Strategy as Practice","authors":"Malobi Mukherjee, R. Ramírez, Richard W. Cuthbertson","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2729827","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2729827","url":null,"abstract":"This paper makes two contributions to strategic management research. It positions scenarios research as a way to connect micro, meso, and macro level cognitive framing (Cornelissen and Werner, 2014) regarding environmental uncertainties. This extends the boundaries of strategy as practice by involving extra organizational actors in strategy praxis to ascertain macro level uncertainties (Vaara and Whittington, 2012, Floyd, 2011) and by linking the complex connections between the micro, meso and macro praxis (Jarzabowski and Spee 2009).The paper considers the role of a scenarios methodology in strategic management with respect to two unrelated case studies – a real estate firm, and a trade association, with and about whom two of the researchers have a detailed knowledge since 2009. While the findings we report here must be treated as exploratory, they do conform to a pattern of findings that a broader six year old research effort has been producing (Ramirez et al, 2015). The findings also conform to the way sociology has been treating the ‘framing’ of issues since Goffman (1974) popularized the construct. As Cornelissen & Werner’s (2014) recent review of framing suggests, the field includes ‘micro’ (individual) level research concerning the cognitive frame, frame of reference, and the framing effects involved; ‘meso’ (organizational) level research about what strategic frame, technological framing, and collective action framing take place; and ‘macro-level’ research at the field level including institutional frames as well as framing contexts. This paper establishes that scenarios research allows management to clearly connect what Pierre Wack (1985) famously called the microscope of the mind to the macroscope of the world accessed with scenarios; it does so by respectively reframing roles and relationships at the micro and meso levels.This paper is also a response to the call made by Vaara and Whittington (2012) to broaden the analyses of strategy-making, moving away from a strong emphasis on the ability of individual managers or management teams to steer an organization to instead become more concerned with placing agency in a web of practices. Accordingly, Whittington et al (2003) proposed that strategy be investigated as a field or social system characterised by connections between corporate elites, strategy consultants, financial institutions, state agencies, the business media, and business schools with an emphasis on understanding how these interactions contribute to the production and consumption of particular kinds of strategy discourse. This paper establishes that taking a scenarios approach can help strategists in firms in turbulent environments (Emery and Trist, 1965) to host diverse views without having to reach agreement, and so more readily comprehend the relevance, complexity, and potential impacts of such a web of practices. By having a small set of scenarios that disagree with each other but do so within different futures, the view","PeriodicalId":22151,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Corporate Governance (Topic)","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73149208","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
When we look at the corporate structures and more specifically to the corporate boards we will notice that the high levels of the bodies governing the biggest corporations are heavily dominated by men. Whereas in some cases the all-male board room may be justified by either lack of equally qualified and skillful female counterparts, for example, this seems to be the case less and less often. According to some authors, having women in the company boards leads to more stability and more sensible risk – taking, as well as more attention being paid to the long term goals of the company and its shareholders. Therefore, states have been trying to influence the companies to ensure close to equal number of women occupying board positions. A very controversial yet useful tool which the governments have been using is the quotas. In this paper, the author will try to analyze whether or not we need quotas and if they are as effective as we think. Eventually a new more intermediate approach will be briefly suggested.
{"title":"Are Quotas the Most Suitable Tool to Ensure Equal Representation of Women in Company Boards?","authors":"Atanas D. Atanasov","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2712665","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2712665","url":null,"abstract":"When we look at the corporate structures and more specifically to the corporate boards we will notice that the high levels of the bodies governing the biggest corporations are heavily dominated by men. Whereas in some cases the all-male board room may be justified by either lack of equally qualified and skillful female counterparts, for example, this seems to be the case less and less often. According to some authors, having women in the company boards leads to more stability and more sensible risk – taking, as well as more attention being paid to the long term goals of the company and its shareholders. Therefore, states have been trying to influence the companies to ensure close to equal number of women occupying board positions. A very controversial yet useful tool which the governments have been using is the quotas. In this paper, the author will try to analyze whether or not we need quotas and if they are as effective as we think. Eventually a new more intermediate approach will be briefly suggested.","PeriodicalId":22151,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Corporate Governance (Topic)","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75283908","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study examines the impacts of business group affiliation, ownership disparity, and corporate governance on cash holdings and the value of excess cash of firms, using business group data from Korea, where such organizations are called “chaebols.” We find that Korean chaebol-affiliated firms have lower (higher) cash holdings (value of excess cash) compared to non-chaebol-affiliated firms; however, ownership disparity increases (decreases) cash holdings (value of excess cash) in chaebol firms. Furthermore, corporate governance enhances the value of excess cash and alleviates the negative effect of the ownership disparity in cash value for chaebol firms.
{"title":"The Value of Cash Holdings, Ownership Disparity, and Corporate Governance: Evidence from Korean Business Groups","authors":"Dongwook Seo, Hohyun Kim, S. Han","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2647910","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2647910","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the impacts of business group affiliation, ownership disparity, and corporate governance on cash holdings and the value of excess cash of firms, using business group data from Korea, where such organizations are called “chaebols.” We find that Korean chaebol-affiliated firms have lower (higher) cash holdings (value of excess cash) compared to non-chaebol-affiliated firms; however, ownership disparity increases (decreases) cash holdings (value of excess cash) in chaebol firms. Furthermore, corporate governance enhances the value of excess cash and alleviates the negative effect of the ownership disparity in cash value for chaebol firms.","PeriodicalId":22151,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Corporate Governance (Topic)","volume":"112 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76702235","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Environmental Accounting has increased in importance during the last few decades as a topic of research and thus also the amount of literature has grown enormously. However, Environmental Management Accounting (EMA) has only advanced slightly as researchers mainly focus on sustainability reporting and regulation topics. This may be one reason why EMA is not yet defined in a standardised way. In order to further develop the theoretical basis of EMA, the contingency theory is used in this paper to explain the initial implementation and design of EMA. Nine variables have been identified to impact EMA either via push or pull mechanisms. A model of these pull and push factors is the outcome of two triangulated case studies that were conducted with the Borealis Group and Puma SE. Interviews with sustainability representatives and a discourse analysis of related press and media releases are included in the case study design. All the collected data was coded into these nine variables. They have been identified in a meta-analysis of current cases that dealt with contingency theory in the discipline of environmental accounting. The following factors have a push influence on EMA: location, interdependence, availability of resources, ownership and control as well as uncertainty. On the other hand, only three variables pull EMA into an organisation: size, history and the organisation’s strategy.
{"title":"Push and Pull Contingency Variables - A Model for Environmental Management Accounting","authors":"Susan Baumann","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2611168","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2611168","url":null,"abstract":"Environmental Accounting has increased in importance during the last few decades as a topic of research and thus also the amount of literature has grown enormously. However, Environmental Management Accounting (EMA) has only advanced slightly as researchers mainly focus on sustainability reporting and regulation topics. This may be one reason why EMA is not yet defined in a standardised way. In order to further develop the theoretical basis of EMA, the contingency theory is used in this paper to explain the initial implementation and design of EMA. Nine variables have been identified to impact EMA either via push or pull mechanisms. A model of these pull and push factors is the outcome of two triangulated case studies that were conducted with the Borealis Group and Puma SE. Interviews with sustainability representatives and a discourse analysis of related press and media releases are included in the case study design. All the collected data was coded into these nine variables. They have been identified in a meta-analysis of current cases that dealt with contingency theory in the discipline of environmental accounting. The following factors have a push influence on EMA: location, interdependence, availability of resources, ownership and control as well as uncertainty. On the other hand, only three variables pull EMA into an organisation: size, history and the organisation’s strategy.","PeriodicalId":22151,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Corporate Governance (Topic)","volume":"41 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78932962","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study examines ethical challenges and financial performance in the Nigerian banking sector. The study was prompted by the dearth of research work in this area of interest. Percentage analysis, Descriptive statistics and Spearman ranked order of correlation (rho) using Statistical package for social sciences (SPSS 21.0) were used to analyze the responses from the various respondents. Findings from the empirical result indicates that insider related credits exhibit a significant positive relationship with financial performance in the Nigerian banking sector while unauthorized tampering with customers’ accounts revealed unexpected insignificant negative relationship with financial performance. It is therefore recommended that the Central Bank of Nigeria should instill tougher disciplinary measures against erring CEOs as this could go a long way to further mitigate the rising tide of unethical practices in the Nigerian banking sector.
{"title":"Ethical Challenges and Financial Performance in the Nigerian Banking Sector","authors":"A. Enofe, G. Ekpulu, T. O. Ajala","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2594439","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2594439","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines ethical challenges and financial performance in the Nigerian banking sector. The study was prompted by the dearth of research work in this area of interest. Percentage analysis, Descriptive statistics and Spearman ranked order of correlation (rho) using Statistical package for social sciences (SPSS 21.0) were used to analyze the responses from the various respondents. Findings from the empirical result indicates that insider related credits exhibit a significant positive relationship with financial performance in the Nigerian banking sector while unauthorized tampering with customers’ accounts revealed unexpected insignificant negative relationship with financial performance. It is therefore recommended that the Central Bank of Nigeria should instill tougher disciplinary measures against erring CEOs as this could go a long way to further mitigate the rising tide of unethical practices in the Nigerian banking sector.","PeriodicalId":22151,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Corporate Governance (Topic)","volume":"3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78927016","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Our aim is to provide evidence regarding managing costs differences comparing Socially Responsible Investing (SRI) funds with traditional ones, if any, and if these are influenced by the ethical rating of the fund. The methodology is based on a multiple linear regression model in a matched-pair sample of 309 European SRI and non-SRI funds managed by the same managing company and a comprehensive sample of 558 European SRI funds. Our main findings are on size, country, asset class, and ethical rating. Yet, the higher the ethical rating, the lower the TER, especially at the highest level of rating. If investors actively select higher ethically rated SRI funds, he or she will benefit from a lower cost charged by specialized asset managers. In investing in 'good', choose the best!
{"title":"Does Managing a SRI Fund Cost More? Evidence from the European Financial Market","authors":"Stefania Arrigoni, A. Lanzavecchia","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2336943","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2336943","url":null,"abstract":"Our aim is to provide evidence regarding managing costs differences comparing Socially Responsible Investing (SRI) funds with traditional ones, if any, and if these are influenced by the ethical rating of the fund. The methodology is based on a multiple linear regression model in a matched-pair sample of 309 European SRI and non-SRI funds managed by the same managing company and a comprehensive sample of 558 European SRI funds. Our main findings are on size, country, asset class, and ethical rating. Yet, the higher the ethical rating, the lower the TER, especially at the highest level of rating. If investors actively select higher ethically rated SRI funds, he or she will benefit from a lower cost charged by specialized asset managers. In investing in 'good', choose the best!","PeriodicalId":22151,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Corporate Governance (Topic)","volume":"129 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73224274","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In periods of unusual weather, forecasters face a problem of interpreting economic data: Which part goes back to the underlying economic trend and which part arises from a special weather effect? In this paper, we discuss ways to disentangle weather-related from business cycle-related influences on economic indicators. We find a significant influence of weather variables at least on a number of monthly indicators. Controlling for weather effects within these indicators should thus create opportunities to increase the accuracy of indicator-based forecasts. Focusing on quarterly GDP growth in Germany, we find that the accuracy of the RWI short term forecasting model improves but advances are small and not significant.
{"title":"Weather, the Forgotten Factor in Business Cycle Analyses","authors":"Roland Doehrn, Philipp an de Meulen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2579739","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2579739","url":null,"abstract":"In periods of unusual weather, forecasters face a problem of interpreting economic data: Which part goes back to the underlying economic trend and which part arises from a special weather effect? In this paper, we discuss ways to disentangle weather-related from business cycle-related influences on economic indicators. We find a significant influence of weather variables at least on a number of monthly indicators. Controlling for weather effects within these indicators should thus create opportunities to increase the accuracy of indicator-based forecasts. Focusing on quarterly GDP growth in Germany, we find that the accuracy of the RWI short term forecasting model improves but advances are small and not significant.","PeriodicalId":22151,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Corporate Governance (Topic)","volume":"56 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81764607","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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