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Is Attention Produced Rationally? 注意力是理性产生的吗?
Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.3386/w27443
E. Bronchetti, Judd B. Kessler, Ellen B. Magenheim, Dmitry Taubinsky, Eric Zwick
A large and growing literature shows that attention-increasing interventions, such as reminders and planning prompts, can promote important behaviors. This paper develops a method to investigate whether people value attention-increasing tools rationally. We characterize how the demand for attention improvements must vary with the pecuniary incentive to be attentive and develop quantitative tests of rational inattention that we deploy in two experiments. The first is an experiment with an online education platform run in the field (n=1,373), in which we randomize incentives to complete course modules and incentives to make plans to complete the modules. The second is an online survey-completion experiment (n=944), in which we randomize incentives to complete a survey three weeks later and the price of reminders to complete the survey. In both experiments, as incentives to complete a task increase, demand for attention-improving technologies also increases. However, our tests suggest that the increase in demand for attention improvements is too small relative to the null of full rationality, indicating that people underuse attention-increasing tools. In our second experiment, we estimate that individuals undervalue the benefits of reminders by 59%.
越来越多的文献表明,注意力增加的干预措施,如提醒和计划提示,可以促进重要的行为。本文开发了一种方法来调查人们是否合理地重视注意力增加工具。我们描述了提高注意力的需求是如何随注意力的金钱激励而变化的,并在两个实验中对理性注意力不集中进行了定量测试。第一个实验是在一个在线教育平台上进行的实地实验(n= 1373),在这个实验中,我们随机分配完成课程模块的激励和完成模块的计划激励。第二种是在线调查完成实验(n=944),我们随机分配三周后完成调查的激励措施和完成调查的提醒价格。在这两个实验中,随着完成任务的动机增加,对提高注意力的技术的需求也会增加。然而,我们的测试表明,提高注意力的需求的增加相对于完全理性的零来说太小了,这表明人们没有充分使用提高注意力的工具。在我们的第二个实验中,我们估计人们低估了提醒的好处59%。
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引用次数: 5
Employment Protection Legislation and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Brazil 就业保护立法与宏观经济:来自巴西的证据
Pub Date : 2020-04-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3588598
David Arnold, Joshua D. Bernstein
This paper exploits tenure-dependence in the design of employment protection legislation (EPL) to identify its equilibrium impacts. In our setting, Brazil, EPL applies after a three-month probationary period, incentivizing firms to terminate jobs at exactly 3 months. We develop a structural model in which firms learn about match quality to map this effect on job termination to equilibrium macroeconomic outcomes. We find that EPL without a probationary period leads to a 2.4 percent increase in unemployment and 3.3 percent decrease in output. However, introducing a probationary period completely negates these effects by effectively increasing the value of an initial match.
本文利用任期依赖性来设计就业保护立法,以确定其均衡影响。在我们的巴西环境中,EPL在三个月的试用期后申请,激励公司在三个月后终止工作。我们开发了一个结构模型,在这个模型中,企业学习匹配质量,将这种对工作终止的影响映射到均衡的宏观经济结果。我们发现,没有试用期的EPL导致失业率上升2.4%,产出下降3.3%。然而,引入试用期可以有效地增加初始匹配的价值,从而完全消除这些影响。
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引用次数: 0
Provocări pentru Finanţele Comportamentale în contextul COVID-19 (Some Challenges for the Behavioral Finance in the Context of COVID-19) provocatorri pentru Finanţele comportentale <e:1> n Context COVID-19 (COVID-19背景下行为金融学面临的一些挑战)
Pub Date : 2020-04-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3577874
Ramona Dumitriu, R. Stefanescu
The recent coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) generated some non-routine problems, characterized by a high degree of uncertainty which makes difficult the solving by the full rational decision making models. In the field of finance, such problems are those associated to the fiscal and monetary policies, that have to fight the recession or to investments in the presence of turbulences on the financial markets. Regarding the fiscal and monetary policies, governments and central banks could be tempted to use the same strategies that were successful in mitigating the effects of the Great Recession from 2007 – 2008, although the recent recession has different causes. In some developed countries there were launched stimulus packages, which allocated impressive financial resources to the economic branches affected by COVID-19. However, as in the case of Great Recession, the complexity of the circumstances made very hard an objective assignment of these resources. For the European Union, a particularity of the strategic solutions to the recent crisis is the fact that many of them are adopted by group decisions, where various interests of the participants have to be conciliated. In many countries, the fall of GDP, the rise of budget deficits and the present low interest rates could impose the choice between a high unemployment and an accelerating inflation. In such decisions, the objectives of governments, usually, very sensitive to the unemployment evolution, could compete with those of the central banks preoccupied by the prices stability. An accelerating inflation could shock the populations from many developed countries which, in the recent past, got used to a comfortable monetary stability. It could also undermine the central banks credibility, leading to distrust in the national currencies. In such situations, the inflation expectations would be no longer a tool for the monetary policies, but an obstacle for their objectives. They could also increase the uncertainty for some financial decisions, modifying the behaviors of various categories of investors, creditors of debtors. In the first quarter of 2020, the news about the COVID-19’s propagation and about the measures meant to help the economies provoked an unusual large number of negative and positive shocks on the developed and emerging capital markets. Such turbulences could be viewed as symptoms of overreactions which occur often in the times of crisis. It is possible, although not easy to prove, that the concern for their own health changed the behavior of some investors. The increased volatility could intimidate many risk-averse investors, but it could also attract some investors who use to take high risks. In some countries, the national currencies depreciated and the volatility of the exchange rates increased. As it happened before in other turbulent times, the gold became an attractive asset for investors. The potential boundaries of the rationality induced by COVID-19 in some decisions s
最近发生的2019冠状病毒病(COVID-19)产生了一些非常规问题,这些问题具有高度不确定性,难以用完全理性决策模型来解决。在金融领域,这些问题是与财政和货币政策有关的问题,这些问题必须与经济衰退作斗争,或者在金融市场动荡的情况下进行投资。关于财政和货币政策,政府和中央银行可能会尝试使用同样的策略,这些策略在缓解2007 - 2008年大衰退的影响方面取得了成功,尽管最近的衰退有不同的原因。一些发达国家推出了刺激计划,为受疫情影响的经济部门分配了可观的财政资源。然而,与大衰退(Great Recession)的情况一样,情况的复杂性使得很难客观分配这些资源。对欧洲联盟来说,最近危机的战略解决办法的一个特点是,其中许多都是通过集体决定通过的,必须调和参与者的各种利益。在许多国家,国内生产总值的下降、预算赤字的增加和目前的低利率可能迫使人们在高失业率和加速通货膨胀之间作出选择。在此类决策中,通常对失业率演变非常敏感的政府的目标,可能会与专注于价格稳定的央行的目标形成竞争。加速的通货膨胀可能会使许多发达国家的人民感到震惊,这些国家在不久前已经习惯了舒适的货币稳定。它还可能破坏央行的信誉,导致对本国货币的不信任。在这种情况下,通胀预期将不再是货币政策的工具,而是实现货币政策目标的障碍。它们还可能增加某些金融决策的不确定性,改变各类投资者、债权人或债务人的行为。2020年第一季度,有关新冠肺炎疫情传播和救助经济措施的消息,在发达和新兴资本市场引发了不同寻常的大量正面和负面冲击。这种动荡可以看作是在危机时期经常发生的过度反应的症状。对自身健康的担忧改变了一些投资者的行为,这是可能的,尽管不容易证明。波动加剧可能会吓退许多厌恶风险的投资者,但也可能吸引一些过去喜欢冒险的投资者。在一些国家,本国货币贬值,汇率波动加剧。就像以前在其他动荡时期发生的那样,黄金对投资者来说成了一种有吸引力的资产。新冠肺炎疫情引发的财政、货币政策、投资等部分决策的理性界限,在金融领域尚属首次。这对研究财务决策非理性原因的行为金融学来说是一个挑战。然而,在目前很难估计COVID-19大流行会持续多久的情况下,也很难预测这种情况是否会导致行为金融学领域的新方法。
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引用次数: 2
Evidence on the Decision Usefulness of Fair Values in Business Combinations 关于企业合并中公允价值决策有用性的证据
Pub Date : 2020-04-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3568820
James J. Blann, John L. Campbell, Jonathan E. Shipman, Zac Wiebe
In 2001, SFAS 141 (ASC 805) required that identifiable assets and liabilities acquired in a business combination be initially recorded at fair value rather than pre-acquisition book value. The FASB argued that fair value measurement would provide more decision-useful information about future cash flows following business combinations. However, opponents argued that fair values are often difficult to estimate and may be too noisy to be useful. In this study, we examine whether fair value measurement for identifiable assets and liabilities provides incremental decision-useful information about post-acquisition cash flows and offer two main findings. First, we find that fair values have incremental predictive ability for post-deal cash flows (beyond pooled book values), but only in limited circumstances: (i) horizontal (i.e., same-industry) deals, (ii) deals that do not involve R&D-intensive targets, and (iii) deals in which managers have less incentive to over-allocate purchase price to goodwill. This suggests that fair value measurement in business combinations only enhances decision usefulness in transactions when fair values are more reliably estimable and/or less subject to manager incentives. Second, we find that analysts update their cash flow forecasts to reflect the information provided by fair value disclosures, but only in transactions where we find that fair values are decision useful. Overall, our results suggest that there are limits in the extent to which fair value measurement for acquired identifiable assets and liabilities provides decision-useful information about future cash flows, and that capital market participants appear to recognize those limits as reflected in their decision making.
2001年,美国会计准则第141号(ASC 805)要求企业合并中获得的可辨认资产和负债应按公允价值而不是收购前的账面价值进行初始记录。FASB认为公允价值计量将提供更多有关企业合并后未来现金流量的决策有用信息。然而,反对者认为,公允价值往往难以估计,而且可能过于嘈杂而无法发挥作用。在本研究中,我们研究了可辨认资产和负债的公允价值计量是否提供了关于收购后现金流量的增量决策有用信息,并提供了两个主要发现。首先,我们发现公允价值对交易后现金流(超过合并账面价值)具有增量预测能力,但仅在有限的情况下:(i)横向(即同行业)交易,(ii)不涉及研发密集型目标的交易,以及(iii)管理人员没有太多动机将购买价格过度分配给商誉的交易。这表明,只有当公允价值更可靠地可估计和/或较少受管理者激励的影响时,企业合并中的公允价值计量才会增强交易中的决策有用性。其次,我们发现分析师更新其现金流量预测以反映公允价值披露提供的信息,但仅在我们发现公允价值对决策有用的交易中。总体而言,我们的研究结果表明,获得的可辨认资产和负债的公允价值计量提供有关未来现金流量的决策有用信息的程度是有限的,资本市场参与者似乎认识到这些限制反映在他们的决策中。
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引用次数: 3
Multiple Discrete Choice with Order Statistic Marginal Utilities 具有序统计边际效用的多重离散选择
Pub Date : 2020-04-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3656581
S. Webster
The paper presents a random utility maximization model for individuals selecting discrete quantities from a set of n alternatives. Multiple alternatives with positive quantities may be selected. Diminishing marginal utility to quantity of each alternative is modeled via order statistics of independent Gumbel random variables. The model is parsimonious — requiring n + 1 parameters — and tractable — admitting closed-form expressions for choice probabilities. As such, the model is amenable to maximum likelihood estimation of structural parameters from observed choices.

Probability functions recover binary logit probabilities under binary choice and a maximum quantity of one unit, and probability is monotonic in the quantity of each alternative. The monotonic property likely restricts the application of the model to a narrow range of settings. The property is a manifestation of a simple recursive relationship among Gumbel order statistic probabilities. This relationship, to my knowledge, has not previously been identified in the literature and may lead to new models for capturing important complexities in a tractable manner.
本文提出了一个随机效用最大化模型,用于个体从n个备选项中选择离散量。可以选择具有正数的多个备选方案。通过独立甘贝尔随机变量的序统计量来模拟每种选择的边际效用对数量的递减。该模型简洁——需要n + 1个参数——易于处理——允许选择概率的封闭形式表达式。因此,该模型适用于根据观察到的选择对结构参数进行最大似然估计。概率函数在二元选择和最大数量为一个单位的情况下恢复二元logit概率,并且概率在每种选择的数量上是单调的。单调性很可能限制了模型的应用范围。该性质是冈贝尔序统计概率之间的简单递归关系的一种表现。据我所知,这种关系以前还没有在文献中被确定,并且可能导致以可处理的方式捕获重要复杂性的新模型。
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引用次数: 0
Financial Reporting Quality and Employment: The Case of Refinancing Risk 财务报告质量与就业:再融资风险案例
Pub Date : 2020-03-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3474827
Boochun Jung, Woo‐Jong Lee, David P. Weber, Daniel G. Yang
We examine the role of financial reporting quality in facilitating corporate employment. Labor creates operating leverage due to wage rigidity and lacks collateral value, both of which increase credit risk and the importance of information in debt markets. We use firms’ predetermined debt maturity schedules to identify when firms face credit constraints stemming from refinancing risk. We find that while refinancing risk is associated with reductions in net hiring, this effect is mitigated by higher quality financial reporting. This result is stronger when the informational sensitivity of debt is expected to be higher, including when labor-induced operating leverage is more significant (labor intensive or unionized firms) and when conflicts of interest among capital providers are more severe (firms with higher likelihoods of default or more heterogeneous debt structures). We further find that high quality financial reporting also mitigates the adverse effect of refinancing risk on employee turnover rates. Overall, our results highlight the importance of financial reporting quality in facilitating firm-level employment by mitigating frictions in both credit and labor markets.
我们考察了财务报告质量在促进企业就业方面的作用。由于工资刚性和缺乏抵押品价值,劳动力创造了经营杠杆,这两者都增加了信用风险和债务市场中信息的重要性。我们使用公司的预定债务到期时间表来确定公司何时面临由再融资风险引起的信贷约束。我们发现,虽然再融资风险与净招聘的减少有关,但这种影响会被更高质量的财务报告所缓解。当债务的信息敏感性预期较高时,这一结果更强,包括当劳动引起的经营杠杆更显著时(劳动密集型或工会化企业),以及当资本提供者之间的利益冲突更严重时(违约可能性更高的企业或更异质的债务结构)。我们进一步发现,高质量的财务报告也减轻了再融资风险对员工流动率的不利影响。总体而言,我们的研究结果强调了财务报告质量通过缓解信贷和劳动力市场的摩擦来促进企业层面就业的重要性。
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引用次数: 1
On the Informativeness of Unexpected Exclusions from Street Earnings 论街头收入意外排除的信息性
Pub Date : 2020-03-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3470390
B. Bratten, Stephannie A. Larocque, T. Yohn
Most prior research examining exclusions from street earnings (i.e., the difference between actual GAAP and street earnings) does not distinguish between exclusions that were expected versus unexpected by analysts. We consider that exclusions reflect both amounts forecasted ex ante by analysts (expected exclusions) and amounts revealed after earnings were reported (unexpected exclusions). We investigate the properties of expected versus unexpected exclusions as well as analysts’ and investors’ reactions to unexpected exclusions. We find that unexpected exclusions are associated with both non-recurring and recurring earnings items and are positively associated with future earnings. The market’s response to unexpected exclusions is stronger when managers do not disclose non-GAAP earnings and analysts’ response to unexpected exclusions is stronger when earnings miss the consensus forecast. Our evidence suggests that distinguishing between expected and unexpected exclusions is useful for forecasting future earnings and valuation, and that managers’ reporting choices and earnings performance influence the market’s and analysts’ response to unexpected exclusions.
大多数先前的研究检查了街头收益的排除(即实际GAAP和街头收益之间的差异),并没有区分分析师预期的排除和意外的排除。我们认为排除既反映了分析师事先预测的金额(预期排除),也反映了收益报告后披露的金额(意外排除)。我们研究了预期排除与意外排除的性质,以及分析师和投资者对意外排除的反应。我们发现意外排除与非经常性和经常性收益项目相关,并与未来收益呈正相关。当经理人不披露非公认会计准则收益时,市场对意外排除的反应更强烈,而当收益低于普遍预期时,分析师对意外排除的反应更强烈。我们的证据表明,区分预期的和意外的排除对预测未来的收益和估值是有用的,并且管理者的报告选择和盈利表现影响市场和分析师对意外排除的反应。
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引用次数: 10
Neighborhood-Based Information Costs 基于社区的信息成本
Pub Date : 2020-02-01 DOI: 10.3386/w26743
Benjamin Hébert, M. Woodford
We derive a new cost of information in rational inattention problems, the neighborhood-based cost functions, starting from the observation that many settings involve exogenous states with a topological structure. These cost functions are uniformly posterior separable and capture notions of perceptual distance. This second property ensures that neighborhood-based costs, unlike mutual information, make accurate predictions about behavior in perceptual experiments. We compare the implications of our neighborhood-based cost functions with those of the mutual information in a series of applications: perceptual judgments, the general environment of binary choice, regime-change games, and linear-quadratic-Gaussian settings. (JEL C70, D11, D82, D83, D91)
我们从观察到许多设置涉及具有拓扑结构的外生状态开始,在理性注意力不集中问题中导出了一种新的信息成本,即基于邻域的成本函数。这些成本函数是一致后验可分离的,并捕获感知距离的概念。这第二个特性确保了基于邻居的成本,不像互信息,在感知实验中对行为做出准确的预测。我们将基于邻域的成本函数与互信息的成本函数在一系列应用中的含义进行了比较:感知判断、二元选择的一般环境、制度变化博弈和线性二次高斯设置。(凝胶c70, d11, d82, d83, d91)
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引用次数: 27
Defining Functional Concepts of Brands: Conceptualization and Literature Review 定义品牌的功能概念:概念化与文献回顾
Pub Date : 2020-01-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3528603
A. Rajagopal
The general objective of this study is to examine the evolution of the concept of brand literacy and measure the independent variables by collecting empirical data through purposively developed instrument. The primary data collected through the instrument will be validated using the appropriate statistical tools. The study aims at describing the brand literacy among consumers in reinforcing brand choices in reference to brand image, brand attributes, brand communication (verbal and non-verbal), and brand etymology. The analysis of data of the study is expected to reveal the role of brand literacy perceived by the consumers as a driver of decision making with the constructs of the study to create brand value.
本研究的总体目标是通过有意开发的工具收集实证数据,考察品牌素养概念的演变,并测量自变量。通过仪器收集的原始数据将使用适当的统计工具进行验证。本研究旨在描述消费者在品牌形象、品牌属性、品牌传播(言语和非言语)和品牌词源方面加强品牌选择的品牌素养。通过对研究数据的分析,期望揭示消费者所感知的品牌素养作为决策驱动因素的作用,并通过研究的构建来创造品牌价值。
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引用次数: 0
Contribution about Social Responsibility for Business Organizations: Implementing the Micro-donation 商业组织的社会责任贡献:小额捐赠的实施
Pub Date : 2019-12-01 DOI: 10.33152/jmphss-3.2.2
Henry Seeger
This paper aimed to answer the question regarding the distribution of micro-donations. It focuses on investigating that how rounding-up the invoice amount of purchases could change the donation market. In order to do so an intensive literature review on ethics, Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and donations with a special focus on micro-donations was conducted. The findings from the literature review show that micro-donations can be used as a low threshold for customers to do good and as a starting point for bigger donations. Those findings were discussed in the light of how micro-donations can be perceived by customers and by corporations. Implementation strategies for micro-donations at different point-of-sales were analyzed within the work. The results of this literature review were compared with those of an empirical study that was also conducted in the course of the PhD. A quantitative survey taking place in both Germany and Romania including 16 closed-ended questions regarding people's attitude towards micro-donations was used to deepen the understanding of the topic. Analysis of the gathered data showed that, as was partially predicted by the findings from the literature review, the option to donate via micro-donations seem relevant especially for the young and the poor. Those usually very hard to reach demographics can with this measure be nudged into donating small amounts. In general, the paper was able to show that people do have a very positive attitude towards microdonations. Still, special education on the topic is needed in order to achieve optimal results.
本文旨在回答有关小额捐赠分配的问题。它的重点是调查采购发票金额的汇总如何改变捐赠市场。为了做到这一点,我们对伦理、企业社会责任(CSR)和捐赠进行了深入的文献回顾,并特别关注了小额捐赠。文献综述的结果表明,小额捐赠可以作为客户做好事的低门槛,也可以作为更大捐赠的起点。这些发现是根据顾客和公司如何看待小额捐赠来讨论的。在工作中分析了不同销售点小额捐赠的实施策略。本文献综述的结果与同样在博士课程中进行的实证研究的结果进行了比较。在德国和罗马尼亚进行了一项定量调查,包括16个关于人们对小额捐赠态度的封闭式问题,以加深对这一主题的理解。对收集数据的分析表明,正如文献综述的发现所部分预测的那样,通过小额捐赠的选择似乎特别适用于年轻人和穷人。那些通常很难触及的人口统计数据可以通过这种措施来推动小额捐款。总的来说,这篇论文能够表明人们确实对小额捐赠持非常积极的态度。不过,为了达到最佳效果,需要对这一主题进行特殊教育。
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引用次数: 0
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Decision-Making in Economics eJournal
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