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Investor Attention and the Cross-Section of Analyst Coverage 投资者关注和分析师覆盖的横截面
Pub Date : 2020-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3376162
Charles Martineau, M. Zoican
Investor attention drives analyst coverage. We find that, between 2012-2017, institutional investor attention explains 21.39% of the cross-sectional variation in analyst coverage, second only to market capitalization (22.09%). We build a model where limited investor attention drives information supply. Analysts compete for scarce investor attention to maximize volume for brokerage houses. In equilibrium, analysts cluster in riskier stocks, for which information is most valuable. However, relaxing investors' attention constraints can reinforce coordination motives for analysts and lead to even higher clustering. The results mirror "crowded" coverage in the U.S., where the most-covered 5% equities amount to 25% of earnings forecasts.
投资者的关注推动了分析师的报道。我们发现,在2012-2017年期间,机构投资者关注解释了分析师覆盖率横截面变化的21.39%,仅次于市值(22.09%)。我们建立了一个模型,在这个模型中,有限的投资者注意力驱动着信息供应。分析师们竞相争夺稀缺的投资者注意力,以最大限度地提高券商的交易量。在均衡状态下,分析师聚集在风险较高的股票上,因为这些股票的信息最有价值。然而,放松投资者的注意力约束可以强化分析师的协调动机,导致更高的聚类。这一结果反映了美国“拥挤”的报道,在美国,被报道最多的5%股票相当于收益预期的25%。
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引用次数: 5
Comprehensive Financial Modeling of Solar PV Systems 太阳能光伏系统综合财务建模
Pub Date : 2020-09-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3722442
Davide Baschieri, C. Magni, A. Marchioni
The adoption of a photovoltaic system has positive environmental effects, but the main driver of the choice in the industrial and commercial sector is economic profitability. Switching from acquisition of energy to production of energy is an investment with costs (e.g. leasing annual payment, O&M costs, capital expenditure) and benefits (e.g. savings in the electric bill, sale of the energy exceeding consumptions). In this work, we use an accounting-and-finance model to calculate the Equity Net Present Value in different scenarios and a sensitivity-analysis method (Finite Change Sensitivity Index) to explain the reasons for differences in results. This technique enables identifying the contribution of any input factor in the output value variation. In this way, the investor can draw attention on the most significant critical variables in the initial estimations to ensure success in forecasting.
采用光电系统对环境有积极的影响,但在工业和商业部门选择的主要驱动因素是经济利润。从获取能源到生产能源是一项既有成本(如租赁年费、运营和维护成本、资本支出)又有收益(如节省电费、出售超过消耗的能源)的投资。在这项工作中,我们使用会计和财务模型来计算不同情景下的股权净现值,并使用敏感性分析方法(有限变化敏感性指数)来解释结果差异的原因。该技术能够识别输出值变化中任何输入因素的贡献。这样,投资者就可以注意到初始估计中最重要的关键变量,以确保预测的成功。
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引用次数: 2
On the Joint Inventory and Pricing Control for a One-Warehouse Multi-Store Problem with Lost Sales: Spiraling Phenomena and a Near-Optimal Heuristic 考虑销售损失的一库多店问题的联合库存和价格控制:螺旋现象和近最优启发式
Pub Date : 2020-09-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3688561
Y. Lei, Sheng Liu, Stefanus Jasin, A. Vakhutinsky
We consider a joint inventory and pricing problem with one warehouse and multiple stores, in which the retailer needs to make a one-time decision on the amount of inventory to be placed at the warehouse at the beginning of the selling season, followed by periodic joint replenishment and pricing decisions for each store throughout the season. Unmet demand at each store is immediately lost. The retailer incurs the usual variable ordering costs, inventory holding costs and lost sales costs, and his objective is to maximize the expected total profits. The optimal control (or policy) for this problem is unknown and numerically challenging to compute. To deal with this, we propose a heuristic control based on the optimal solution of a deterministic relaxation of the original stochastic problem. The construction of our heuristic combines four ideas: (1) order-up-to control, (2) dynamic pricing with linear rate adjustment, (3) replenishment batching, and (4) random errors averaging. We show for a particular choice of control parameters that the heuristic is close to optimal when demand is Poisson and the annual market size is large. In addition to analyzing our proposed heuristic, we also analyze the performance of some popular and simple heuristics that directly implement the solution of the deterministic approximation. We show that simple re-optimization of deterministic problem may yield a very poor performance by causing a ``spiraling down" movement in price trajectory, which in turn yields a ``spiraling up" movement in expected lost sales quantity (i.e., the expected lost sales quantity keeps increasing as we re-optimize more frequently). This cautions against the use of simple re-optimizations in the joint inventory and pricing setting with lost sales.
我们考虑一个有一个仓库和多个商店的联合库存和定价问题,其中零售商需要在销售季节开始时一次性决定仓库的库存数量,然后在整个季节中为每个商店定期联合补货和定价决策。每个商店未满足的需求立即消失。零售商产生了通常的可变订购成本、库存持有成本和损失的销售成本,他的目标是使预期总利润最大化。这个问题的最优控制(或策略)是未知的,在数值上很难计算。为了解决这个问题,我们提出了一种基于原始随机问题的确定性松弛的最优解的启发式控制。我们的启发式算法的构建结合了四个思想:(1)订货至控制,(2)动态定价与线性费率调整,(3)补货批次,(4)随机误差平均。对于特定的控制参数选择,当需求为泊松且年市场规模较大时,启发式接近最优。除了分析我们提出的启发式算法外,我们还分析了一些直接实现确定性近似解的流行和简单的启发式算法的性能。我们表明,对确定性问题进行简单的重新优化可能会导致价格轨迹上的“螺旋下降”运动,从而产生非常糟糕的性能,这反过来又会导致预期销售损失数量的“螺旋上升”运动(即,随着我们更频繁地重新优化,预期销售损失数量不断增加)。这提醒我们不要在联合库存和定价设置中使用简单的重新优化。
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引用次数: 1
Valuing Companies by Cash Flow Discounting: Only APV Does Not Require Iteration 通过现金流贴现来评估公司:只有APV不需要迭代
Pub Date : 2020-08-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3682128
Pablo Fernández
The most used methods for valuing companies by Cash Flow Discounting are equity cash flow, free cash flow, capital cash flow and APV (Adjusted Present Value). Only APV does not require iteration All four methods, if properly applied, always give the same value. This result is logical, as all the methods analyze the same reality under the same hypotheses; they differ only in the cash flows or parameters taken as the starting point for the valuation. Many valuations are incorrect because the authors do not iterate and, therefore, the four methods do not provide the same value.
现金流贴现法最常用的评估公司价值的方法是权益现金流、自由现金流、资本现金流和调整后现值。只有APV不需要迭代。所有四种方法,如果应用得当,总是给出相同的值。这个结果是合乎逻辑的,因为所有的方法都在相同的假设下分析相同的现实;它们只是在作为估值起点的现金流量或参数上有所不同。许多估值是不正确的,因为作者没有迭代,因此,四种方法不提供相同的值。
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引用次数: 67
Consumer Search and the Uncertainty Effect 消费者搜索与不确定性效应
Pub Date : 2020-08-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3678667
H. Karle, Heiner Schumacher, Rune Vølund
We consider a model of Bertrand competition where consumers are uncertain about the qualities and prices of firms' products. Consumers can inspect all products at zero cost. A share of consumers is expectation-based loss averse. For these consumers, a purchase plan, which involves buying products of varying quality and price with positive probability, creates scale-dependent dis-utility from gain-loss sensations. Even if their degree of loss aversion is modest, they may refrain from inspecting all products and choose an individual default that is first-order stochastically dominated. Firms' strategic behavior can exacerbate the scope for this "uncertainty effect'", and sellers of inferior products may earn positive profits despite Bertrand competition. We find suggestive evidence for the predicted association between consumer behavior and loss aversion in new survey data.
我们考虑一个伯特兰竞争模型,其中消费者对公司产品的质量和价格不确定。消费者可以零成本检查所有产品。一部分消费者厌恶基于预期的损失。对于这些消费者来说,购买计划包括以正概率购买不同质量和价格的产品,这会产生因得失感而产生的规模依赖负效用。即使他们的损失厌恶程度是适度的,他们也可能避免检查所有产品,而选择一阶随机支配的单个违约。企业的战略行为会加剧这种“不确定性效应”的范围,即使存在伯特兰竞争,劣质产品的销售者也可能获得正利润。我们在新的调查数据中发现了消费者行为与损失厌恶之间预测关联的暗示性证据。
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引用次数: 3
Evaluation of Econometric Models of Adaptive Learning by Predictive Measures 用预测方法评价自适应学习的计量经济模型
Pub Date : 2020-08-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3658087
G. Chernov, I. Susin, Sergey Cheparuhin
Game-theoretic models of learning are hard to study even in the laboratory setting due to econometric and practical concerns (like the limited length of an experimental session).

In particular, as the simulations by (Salmon, 2001) show, in a cross-model (or "blind'') testing of several models, the data generated by those models does not correspond to the estimated parameters correctly.

Thus, even when the real data generation process is known we cannot distinguish correct models from incorrect ones by looking at the estimates.

However, we demonstrate that under the same conditions, models are clearly distinguishable if we compare predictions that the models make instead of comparing the model parameters.

We also provide a rationale for why this cross-model predictive quality is a particularly relevant way for improving learning models.
由于计量经济学和实践方面的考虑(比如实验时间的限制),即使在实验室环境下,博弈论学习模型也很难研究。特别是,正如(Salmon, 2001)的模拟所显示的那样,在几个模型的交叉模型(或“盲”)测试中,这些模型产生的数据与估计的参数不正确对应。因此,即使真实的数据生成过程是已知的,我们也无法通过查看估计来区分正确的模型和不正确的模型。然而,我们证明,在相同的条件下,如果我们比较模型所做的预测,而不是比较模型参数,模型是明显可区分的。我们还提供了一个基本原理,为什么这种跨模型预测质量是改进学习模型的特别相关的方法。
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引用次数: 1
The Better-of-Two Strategy for Active Management: Dynamically Combining (and Valuing) Active and Passive Portfolios Through Time 主动管理的二选一策略:随时间动态组合(和评估)主动和被动投资组合
Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3667838
S. Fox, P. Hammond
The active-versus-passive asset debate falsely forces investors into an all-or-nothing decision between the two. Instead, following Margrabe, we use a “better-of-two” option to:

(1) calculate the value of active management and,

(2) find the optimal weights for an active-plus-passive portfolio that dynamically replicates this option through time.

Using simulations, we found that for an at-the-money exchange option with a 10-year horizon, an investor would pay about 5.5% of the passive portfolio’s value. To replicate this option, the investor would allocate roughly 40% the active asset. We also accounted for borrowing costs, tracking error and active alpha, finding that replication cost and portfolio turnover decrease as time horizon increases and that results are robust to errors in expected volatility. Finally, we replaced hypothetical return distributions with historical mutual fund returns used in 60/40 equity/fixed income portfolios rebalanced monthly. Excess ending wealth distributions using the better-of-two strategy exceeded those of an all-active strategy with better downside protection. These values also came close or, in the case of funds that produced excess return, exceeded the ending value of the all-passive strategy while limiting downside relative risk. Gains from the dynamic option replication portfolio are particularly noticeable during periods when active excess returns are negative. Turnover for long-horizon portfolios is less than 4% per month and our results are statistically significant.
主动型与被动型资产之争错误地迫使投资者在两者之间做出要么全有要么全无的决定。相反,按照Margrabe的做法,我们使用“二选一”的选项:(1)计算主动管理的价值,(2)找到主动+被动投资组合的最佳权重,该组合随着时间的推移动态地复制了该选项。通过模拟,我们发现,对于10年期的现价外汇期权,投资者将支付被动投资组合价值的5.5%左右。为了复制这一选择,投资者将配置大约40%的活跃资产。我们还考虑了借贷成本,跟踪误差和主动alpha,发现复制成本和投资组合周转率随着时间范围的增加而减少,并且结果对预期波动率的误差具有鲁棒性。最后,我们用每月再平衡60/40股票/固定收益投资组合中使用的历史共同基金回报取代了假设的回报分布。使用二选一策略的超额期末财富分配超过了具有更好下行保护的全主动策略的超额期末财富分配。这些价值也接近,或者在产生超额回报的基金的情况下,超过了全被动策略的最终价值,同时限制了下行相对风险。当主动超额收益为负时,动态期权复制投资组合的收益尤其显著。长期投资组合的周转率每月低于4%,我们的结果在统计上是显著的。
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引用次数: 0
Communication Affects Financial Decisions and Outcomes 沟通影响财务决策和结果
Pub Date : 2020-07-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3728921
Marcelo Henriques-de-Brito
The goal of this essay with practical applications is to address and develop visual models to discuss and ease the understanding of the communication process in finance, taking into account impacts from feedback and the surrounding environment. This work also targets the relationship between a client and a financial practitioner. Besides discussing the visual models, this work describes how these models may be used to improve financial human communication. In the end of this article are key points and suggestions for future work in the field of human behavior, communication, and interaction when implementing financial decisions.
本文与实际应用的目标是解决和开发可视化模型来讨论和简化对金融沟通过程的理解,同时考虑到反馈和周围环境的影响。这项工作也针对客户和金融从业人员之间的关系。除了讨论可视化模型之外,本工作还描述了如何使用这些模型来改善财务人员的沟通。在本文的最后,提出了在实施财务决策时人类行为、沟通和互动领域未来工作的关键点和建议。
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引用次数: 0
An Alternative Credit Scoring System in China's Consumer Lending Market: A System Based on Digital Footprint Data 中国消费贷款市场的另类信用评分系统:基于数字足迹数据的系统
Pub Date : 2020-06-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3638710
G. Fu, Minjuan Sun, Qingyuan Xu
Ever since the late 1990s, China has experienced explosive growth in consumer lending, especially in short-term consumer loans, among which, the growth rate of non-bank lending has surpassed bank lending due to the development in financial technology. On the other hand, China does not have a universal credit scoring and registration system that can guide lenders during the processes of credit evaluation and risk control, for example, an individual’s bank credit records are not available for online lenders to see and vice versa. Given this context, the purpose of this paper is three-fold. First, we explore if and how alternative digital footprint data can be utilized to assess borrower’s creditworthiness. Then, we perform a comparative analysis of machine learning methods for the canonical problem of credit default prediction. Finally, we analyze, from an institutional point of view, the necessity of establishing a viable and nationally universal credit registration and scoring system utilizing online digital footprints, so that more people in China can have better access to the consumption loan market. Two different types of digital footprint data are utilized to match with bank’s loan default records. Each separately captures distinct dimensions of a person’s characteristics, such as his shopping patterns and certain aspects of his personality or inferred demographics revealed by social media features like profile image and nickname. We find both datasets can generate either acceptable or excellent prediction results, and different types of data tend to complement each other to get better performances. Typically, the traditional types of data banks normally use like income, occupation, and credit history, update over longer cycles, hence they can’t reflect more immediate changes, like the financial status changes caused by business crisis; whereas digital footprints can update daily, weekly, or monthly, thus capable of providing a more comprehensive profile of the borrower’s credit capabilities and risks. From the empirical and quantitative examination, we believe digital footprints can become an alternative information source for creditworthiness assessment, because of their near-universal data coverage, and because they can by and large resolve the "thin-file" issue, due to the fact that digital footprints come in much larger volume and higher frequency.
自20世纪90年代末以来,中国的消费贷款,特别是短期消费贷款呈现爆发式增长,其中非银行贷款的增长速度由于金融技术的发展已经超过了银行贷款。另一方面,中国没有一个通用的信用评分和登记系统,可以指导贷款人在信用评估和风险控制的过程中,例如,个人的银行信用记录不能供在线贷款人查看,反之亦然。在这种背景下,本文的目的有三个方面。首先,我们探讨了是否以及如何利用替代数字足迹数据来评估借款人的信誉。然后,我们对典型信用违约预测问题的机器学习方法进行了比较分析。最后,我们从制度的角度分析了建立一个可行的、全国性的、利用网络数字足迹的信用登记和评分系统的必要性,从而使更多的中国人能够更好地进入消费贷款市场。使用两种不同类型的数字足迹数据与银行的贷款违约记录进行匹配。每一个都分别捕捉了一个人特征的不同维度,比如他的购物模式和性格的某些方面,或者通过个人资料和昵称等社交媒体特征揭示的推断人口统计数据。我们发现两个数据集都可以产生可接受或优秀的预测结果,并且不同类型的数据倾向于相互补充以获得更好的性能。通常,银行通常使用的传统类型的数据,如收入、职业和信用记录,更新周期较长,因此它们不能反映更直接的变化,如商业危机引起的财务状况变化;而数字足迹可以每日、每周或每月更新,从而能够提供更全面的借款人信贷能力和风险概况。从实证和定量检验来看,我们认为数字足迹可以成为信用评估的另一种信息来源,因为它们具有近乎普遍的数据覆盖范围,而且由于数字足迹的数量和频率都要大得多,因此它们可以在很大程度上解决“薄文件”问题。
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引用次数: 2
Elasticity of Attention and Optimal Monetary Policy 注意弹性与最优货币政策
Pub Date : 2020-06-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3623412
Shaowen Luo, K. Tsang
Abstract Optimal monetary policy depends on whether agents have exogenous, endogenous–inelastic, or endogenous–elastic attention. Under elastic attention, optimal monetary policy induces equilibria that are not possible under the other two settings: no attention to any shocks that generate inefficient economic fluctuations.
最优货币政策取决于经济主体是否具有外生注意力、内生非弹性注意力或内生弹性注意力。在弹性关注下,最优货币政策会导致均衡,而这在另外两种情况下是不可能实现的:不关注任何产生低效经济波动的冲击。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
Decision-Making in Economics eJournal
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