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Determinants of Seeking Advice within Defined Contribution Retirement Savings Schemes 在界定供款退休储蓄计划内寻求意见的决定因素
Pub Date : 2018-08-28 DOI: 10.1111/acfi.12397
G. Clark, Maurizio Fiaschetti, P. Gerrans
We report results from a study of superannuation member advice‐seeking within their plan, explaining observed patterns by member age, gender, issue salience and size‐of‐bet effect. Inquiry mode, frequency and volume of contact with the advice‐provider, and sensitivity of members to legislative change and macroeconomic events are considered. Results show that gender (female more likely than male), age (older rather than younger), balance (larger rather than smaller) and experience (longer rather than shorter) are the strongest advice‐seeking predictors, consistent over time. Findings suggest member engagement around retirement planning may be more effective when considering the factors affecting advice‐seeking behaviour in general.
我们报告了一项关于退休成员在其计划中寻求建议的研究结果,解释了由成员年龄、性别、问题显著性和下注效应大小所观察到的模式。咨询模式、与建议提供者接触的频率和数量,以及成员对立法变化和宏观经济事件的敏感性都被考虑在内。结果表明,性别(女性比男性更有可能)、年龄(年长而不是年轻)、平衡(较大而不是较小)和经验(较长而不是较短)是最强的咨询预测因素,并且随着时间的推移是一致的。研究结果表明,当考虑到影响咨询行为的因素时,会员对退休计划的参与可能更有效。
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引用次数: 8
The Neuroeconomics of Habit 习惯的神经经济学
Pub Date : 2018-08-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3752193
C. Camerer, P. Landry, Ryan Webb
We introduce a neureconomic "autopilot" model of habit, based on many studies of animal learning and human habituation. In this approach, there are two systems for valuation-- habit and goal-directed. The habitual system recalls the previous choice (which can be dependent on a contextual state), and the reliability of reward of that choice. (Reliability is the absolute value of reward prediction error, so a low value is associated with reliability.) If the reliability is below a threshold the habitual choice is made. Otherwise a goal directed utility-maximizing choice is made. A simple two-choice model is used to show how short-run own-price elasticities can be zero in this model while longer-run elasticities are negative. The theory is quite different than habit formation, as modelled by adjacent complementarity or reference-dependence in other economic theories. In the autopilot model, the structural driver of habit is reward reliability. When this number is persistent, choice is persistent. Persistent behavioral choice is therefore a byproduct of reward reliability and is not the correct preference specification.
基于对动物学习和人类习惯化的许多研究,我们介绍了一个神经经济学的习惯“自动驾驶”模型。在这种方法中,有两个评估系统——习惯和目标导向。习惯系统回忆起之前的选择(这可以依赖于上下文状态),以及该选择的奖励可靠性。(可靠性是奖励预测误差的绝对值,所以低的值与可靠性有关。)如果可靠性低于阈值,则做出习惯性选择。否则,就会做出目标导向的效用最大化选择。一个简单的两种选择模型被用来说明,在这个模型中,短期自身价格弹性如何为零,而长期弹性如何为负。这一理论与习惯形成理论截然不同,习惯形成理论的模型是其他经济理论中的相邻互补或参考依赖。在自动驾驶模式中,习惯的结构性驱动因素是奖励可靠性。当这个数字是持久的,选择是持久的。因此,持续性行为选择是奖励可靠性的副产品,并不是正确的偏好规范。
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引用次数: 5
Smokers’ Rational Lexicographic Preferences for Cigarette Package Warnings: A Discrete Choice Experiment with Eye Tracking 吸烟者对香烟包装警告的理性词典偏好:眼动追踪的离散选择实验
Pub Date : 2018-08-01 DOI: 10.3386/W24974
J. Harris, Mariana Gerstenblüth, P. Triunfo
We asked 97 cigarette smokers to make a series of 12 binary choices between experimental cigarette packages with varying warnings and background colors. Each smoker had to decide which of the two packages contained cigarettes less risky for his health. We tested whether the smokers, confronted with warnings that were repugnant and threatening to many of them, could still make choices that adhered to the standard axioms of rational choice. We supplemented our observations on smokers’ choices with data on their eye movements. We find that participants universally made choices consistent with a complete, transitive preference ordering. We find little evidence of inconsistent choices violating the weak axiom of revealed preference. In a majority of smokers, we find strong evidence of the use of a lexicographic decision rule to assess the riskiness of a cigarette package. These smokers first ranked the two packages solely on the basis of their warnings. Only when the two packages had the same warning did they rankthe packages on the basis of their color. The data on eye tracking strongly confirmed the lexicographic nature of the underlying decision rule. Our studyrepresentsan entirely different angle of inquiry into thequestion of rational addiction.
我们要求97名吸烟者在带有不同警告和背景颜色的实验性香烟包装中做出12种二选一的选择。每个吸烟者必须决定两包香烟中哪一包对他的健康危害较小。我们测试了吸烟者,当面对对他们中的许多人来说令人反感和威胁的警告时,是否仍然能够做出符合理性选择标准公理的选择。我们用他们眼球运动的数据补充了我们对吸烟者选择的观察。我们发现,参与者普遍做出的选择与一个完整的、可传递的偏好顺序一致。我们发现很少有证据表明不一致的选择违反了揭示偏好的弱公理。在大多数吸烟者中,我们发现强有力的证据表明使用词典决策规则来评估香烟包装的风险。这些吸烟者首先仅根据警告对两种包装进行排名。只有当两个包装上有相同的警告时,他们才会根据包装的颜色对它们进行排名。眼动追踪的数据有力地证实了潜在决策规则的字典学性质。我们的研究代表了对理性成瘾问题的一个完全不同的调查角度。
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引用次数: 4
Capital Structure Decisions in the Supplier-Customer Network 供应商-客户网络中的资本结构决策
Pub Date : 2018-07-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3222201
I. Prostakova
We explore network effects in capital structure decision making. The economy is presented as a set of nodes (industries) and edges (trading links between them). First, we propose a simple theoretical setup which allows us to illustrate numerically joint dynamics of optimal capital structure choices with respect to agents' characteristics and the intensity of input-output links.We find that the position of an industry in the network affects its capital structure policy. The more suppliers or customers an industry has or the more connected to other industries it is, the higher its leverage becomes. These effects explain 2 p.p. variation of the leverage. Our second finding is a positive dependence between partner industries’ leverages. It implies that industries with highly levered partners are prone to keep higher leverage. This result supports the theory that leverage is partly used as an instrument to improve an economic agent’s bargaining position. The results are confirmed under multiple robustness checks.
我们探讨了资本结构决策中的网络效应。经济表现为一组节点(产业)和边缘(它们之间的贸易联系)。首先,我们提出了一个简单的理论设置,使我们能够说明最优资本结构选择的数值联合动力学与代理人的特征和投入产出联系的强度。我们发现行业在网络中的位置影响其资本结构政策。一个行业的供应商或客户越多,或者与其他行业的联系越紧密,其杠杆率就越高。这些效应解释了杠杆率的2个百分点的变化。我们的第二个发现是合作伙伴行业的杠杆之间存在正依赖关系。这意味着拥有高杠杆合作伙伴的行业倾向于保持更高的杠杆。这一结果支持了杠杆在一定程度上被用作提高经济主体议价地位的工具的理论。结果在多次稳健性检验下得到了证实。
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引用次数: 0
Deep Learning-Based BSDE Solver for Libor Market Model with Applications to Bermudan Swaption Pricing and Hedging 基于深度学习的Libor市场模型BSDE求解器及其在百慕大掉期定价和套期保值中的应用
Pub Date : 2018-07-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3214596
Haojie Wang, Han Chen, A. Sudjianto, Richard S. Liu, Qi Shen
The Libor market model is a mainstay term structure model of interest rates for derivatives pricing, especially for Bermudan swaptions, and other exotic Libor callable derivatives. For numerical implementation the pricing of derivatives with Libor market models is mainly carried out with Monte Carlo simulation. The PDE grid approach is not particularly feasible due to Curse of Dimensionality. The standard Monte Carlo method for American/Bermudan swaption pricing more or less uses regression to estimate expected value as a linear combination of basis functions (Longstaff and Schwartz). However, Monte Carlo method only provides the lower bound for American option price. Another complexity is the computation of the sensitivities of the option, the so-called Greeks, which are fundamental for a trader's hedging activity. Recently, an alternative numerical method based on deep learning and backward stochastic differential equations appeared in quite a few researches. For European style options the feedforward deep neural networks (DNN) show not only feasibility but also efficiency to obtain both prices and numerical Greeks. In this paper, a new backward DNN solver is proposed for Bermudan swaptions. Our approach is representing financial pricing problems in the form of high dimensional stochastic optimal control problems, FBSDEs, or equivalent PDEs. We demonstrate that using backward DNN the high-dimension Bermudan swaption pricing and hedging can be solved effectively and efficiently. A comparison between Monte Carlo simulation and the new method for pricing vanilla interest rate options manifests the superior performance of the new method. We then use this method to calculate prices and Greeks of Bermudan swaptions as a prelude for other Libor callable derivatives.
Libor市场模型是衍生品定价的主要期限结构模型,特别是百慕大掉期和其他奇异的Libor可赎回衍生品。在数值实现方面,利用Libor市场模型对衍生品进行定价主要采用蒙特卡罗模拟。由于维度诅咒,PDE网格方法不是特别可行。美国/百慕大掉期定价的标准蒙特卡罗方法或多或少使用回归来估计作为基函数线性组合的期望值(Longstaff和Schwartz)。然而,蒙特卡罗方法只提供了美式期权价格的下界。另一个复杂性是期权敏感度的计算,即所谓的希腊期权,这是交易员对冲活动的基础。近年来,一种基于深度学习和倒向随机微分方程的替代数值方法出现在不少研究中。对于欧式期权,前馈深度神经网络(DNN)不仅具有可行性,而且具有获得价格和数值希腊的效率。本文提出了一种新的用于百慕大交换的反向DNN求解器。我们的方法是以高维随机最优控制问题(FBSDEs)或等价的偏微分方程(pde)的形式来表示金融定价问题。结果表明,利用后向深度神经网络可以有效地求解高维百慕达互换的定价和套期保值问题。通过蒙特卡罗模拟与新方法的比较,证明了新方法的优越性。然后,我们使用这种方法计算百慕大掉期的价格和希腊人,作为其他Libor可赎回衍生品的前奏。
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引用次数: 17
Now You See It: Drawing Attention to Charges in the Asset Management Industry 现在你看到了:引起人们对资产管理行业收费的关注
Pub Date : 2018-06-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3190111
Lucy Hayes, Anish Thakrar, William Lee
We carried out an experiment which simulated an online investment platform and recruited over one thousand non-advised investors to participate in the research. Drawing on the relevant behavioural literature as well as our own qualitative research we developed four treatments to test. In summary, all of our treatments increased the proportion of investors choosing a cheaper fund and some of the effects were sizable. However, the increased focus on charges did not seem to reduce the importance that participants placed on other fund characteristics such as performance or risk. A warning message appeared to improve decision-making, particularly when it was coupled with a chart showing the impact of charges or a screen providing a summary of charges just before an investor purchased a fund. The treatments which were most impactful were also prominently positioned on pages which all investors had to view.
我们进行了一个模拟在线投资平台的实验,招募了一千多名未被建议的投资者参与研究。根据相关的行为文献以及我们自己的定性研究,我们开发了四种治疗方法进行测试。总之,我们所有的治疗方法都增加了选择较便宜基金的投资者的比例,其中一些效果相当可观。然而,对收费的日益关注似乎并没有降低参与者对其他基金特征(如业绩或风险)的重视。警告信息似乎能改善决策,尤其是当它与显示收费影响的图表或在投资者购买基金前提供收费摘要的屏幕结合在一起时。最具影响力的处理方法也被放在所有投资者必须查看的页面的显著位置。
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引用次数: 2
A Descriptive Study of the Effectiveness of Internet Advertising on Consumer Buying Behavior in Nagpur City 那格浦尔市网络广告对消费者购买行为影响的描述性研究
Pub Date : 2018-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3341924
Anupkumar Dhore, Snehal Godbole
The present research report emphases on studying the impact of internet advertising on consumer buying behaviour, which raises the consumers' intentions towards the product and buying behaviours. The purchasing behaviour is strongly influenced by the image of the product which is built by the advertisers. Advertisers are expected to shift their focus and spend millions in internet advertising in the coming years than TV, print ads and another traditional advertising media.Online shopping is a growing trend in India and the numbers of both sellers and buyers are increasing daily by whopping percentages. India’s total online sales figure is estimated to reach the US $100 billion by 2020. With the rapid growth in technology, the internet is becoming an important one stop point for consumers in finding most of their needs. Be it communication, entertainment, information search or shopping, internet serves as a panacea for all their requirements. According to the global networking giant Cisco, Digital transformation will take India's internet users from 373 million (28 percent of population) in 2016 to 829 million (59 percent of the Indian population) in 2021. This clearly demonstrates that India is growing fast and people are becoming habitual of using the Internet as the evolution of human society, the improvement in Communication processes and Digital Convergence open up innovative opportunities and challenges for Marketing. Subsequently, the Internet has moved ahead to play a significant role in the Consumer Decision Making Process. Many consumers are online every day for their personal & official work, but do they notice the ads, banners displayed on that webpage and most important thing is to check what is their recall value. The current study investigated the impact of internet advertising on consumer buying behaviour by conducting a survey.
本研究报告侧重于研究网络广告对消费者购买行为的影响,提高消费者对产品的意向和购买行为。消费者的购买行为受到广告商塑造的产品形象的强烈影响。预计未来几年,广告商将转移他们的重点,在互联网广告上花费数百万美元,而不是电视、平面广告和其他传统广告媒体。网上购物在印度是一种日益增长的趋势,卖家和买家的数量每天都在以惊人的百分比增长。据估计,到2020年,印度的在线销售总额将达到1000亿美元。随着科技的快速发展,互联网正在成为消费者寻找他们大部分需求的重要一站。无论是交流、娱乐、信息搜索还是购物,互联网都是满足他们所有需求的灵丹妙药。据全球网络巨头思科称,数字化转型将使印度的互联网用户从2016年的3.73亿(占印度人口的28%)增加到2021年的8.29亿(占印度人口的59%)。这清楚地表明,印度正在快速发展,人们正在习惯使用互联网,随着人类社会的发展,通信过程的改进和数字融合为营销带来了创新的机会和挑战。随后,互联网在消费者决策过程中发挥了重要作用。许多消费者每天都在网上进行个人和官方工作,但他们是否注意到网页上显示的广告和横幅,最重要的是检查他们的回忆价值。本研究通过问卷调查的方式调查了网络广告对消费者购买行为的影响。
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引用次数: 8
Persuasion with Rational Inattention 用理性的不注意说服
Pub Date : 2018-04-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3164033
A. Bloedel, I. Segal
We study a model of Bayesian persuasion in which Receiver has limited information-processing capacity, or attention, and must exert costly effort to process Sender’s signals. Receiver is rationally inattentive (Sims (2003)): attention costs are proportional to the mutual information (expected entropy reduction) between Sender’s signals and Receiver’s “perceptions” of them. Information disclosure plays a dual role: in addition to the usual persuasion motive, Sender engages in strategic attention manipulation. When Receiver has a binary action choice, we characterize the optimal persuasion strategy using a first-order approach. At the optimum, “complex” signals are used to exploit Receiver’s limited attention when interests are misaligned, and “simple and convincing” signals are used to focus attention when interests are aligned. When the persuasion motive is absent (preferences are aligned) we trace the attention manipulation motive to the multi-dimensionality of information and the extensive margin of attention allocation: if the state space is binary or Receiver faces a pure capacity constraint, full disclosure is uniquely optimal. Applications include advertising, information management in organizations, design of disclosure regulations, and dual-process theories of attention and choice. We also discuss formal connections to models of (i) persuasion with a privately informed Receiver and (ii) contracting with flexible information acquisition, as well as extensions to cheap talk communication.
我们研究了一个贝叶斯说服模型,其中接收者的信息处理能力或注意力有限,必须付出昂贵的努力来处理发送者的信号。接收者是理性的不注意(Sims(2003)):注意成本与发送者的信号和接收者对它们的“感知”之间的相互信息(期望熵减少)成正比。信息披露具有双重作用:除了通常的说服动机外,发送者还参与了战略注意操纵。当接收者有二元行为选择时,我们用一阶方法描述了最优说服策略。在最优情况下,当利益不一致时,使用“复杂”信号来利用接受者有限的注意力;当利益一致时,使用“简单而令人信服”的信号来集中注意力。当说服动机不存在(偏好一致)时,我们将注意力操纵动机追溯到信息的多维度和广泛的注意力分配余量:如果状态空间是二元的,或者接收者面临纯容量约束,完全披露是唯一最优的。应用包括广告、组织中的信息管理、信息披露规则的设计以及注意和选择的双过程理论。我们还讨论了(i)与私下知情的接收者的说服和(ii)与灵活信息获取的合同模型的正式联系,以及对廉价谈话沟通的扩展。
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引用次数: 27
Factors Influencing Customer Behavior of Butter Oil Substitute in Vietnam 影响越南黄油替代品消费者行为的因素
Pub Date : 2018-03-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3695862
Giao Ha Nam Khanh
The study was aimed at determining the impacts of factors that influence the purchasing decision of Butter Oil Substitute (BOS) in coffee roasting industry. The study was carried out in Ho Chi Minh City on 88 customers using face to face interview and structured questionnaire as the instruments for data collection. Questions were designed to find out how consumers behave in relation to BOS for coffee roasting. The study showed that the purchase of BOS in coffee roasting industry is influenced mostly by the customer’s price consciousness, relationship between buyer and seller, and customer service. The study can be used as references for the planning of marketing strategies and as the basis for future researches in the customer behavior with regard to bakery customers (another application of BOS) and specialty fats in general.
本研究旨在探讨咖啡烘焙业中影响牛油替代品(BOS)购买决策的因素。本研究在胡志明市对88名顾客进行调查,采用面对面访谈和结构化问卷作为数据收集的工具。问题的设计是为了了解消费者对烘焙咖啡时使用BOS的行为。研究表明,咖啡烘焙行业的BOS购买主要受顾客的价格意识、买卖双方关系和顾客服务的影响。本研究可为市场营销策略的规划提供参考,并为未来烘焙顾客(BOS的另一个应用)和特种脂肪的顾客行为研究奠定基础。
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引用次数: 5
The Conflict Between Economic and Social Preferences: Social Investing, Social Enterprise, Mind-Sets and Nudges 经济偏好和社会偏好之间的冲突:社会投资、社会企业、思维模式和推动
Pub Date : 2018-02-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3135226
N. Hinvest, Richard J. Fairchild, Habiba Elkholy
Investing into the financial markets has become increasingly complex in recent years, with a multitude of investment products and motives. With the rapid growth in social investing and social entrepreneurship, scholars recognise that investors and entrepreneurs often consider a wide range of social factors, in addition to financial return, when making their financial decisions. Behavioural economists argue that it is important to understand the complex economic and behavioural/psychological factors affecting social investors’ decision-making. In this paper, we draw upon lessons from behavioural economics (and in particular, social preference theory) in order to develop neuro-economic tests of investors’ social and financial mind-sets. We focus on two main research questions: a) How heterogeneous are (social-) investors, in terms of the unconscious weightings that they place upon financial and social returns? Can investors’ mind-sets be placed upon a continuum from focussing on social returns, through mixed motivations/weightings, through to focussing on financial returns? b). Can investors be nudged along this continuum? We address these two research questions by means of two neuro-experiments. We employ eye-tracking techniques to examine investors’ attention to, and fixation on, social and financial aspects of financial market investment. In addition, we employ nudges in the form of images relating to positive and negative social behaviour. Our experiments demonstrate that a) investors can indeed be placed on the financial-social motivation continuum (and that there is heterogeneity in social-investors’ motives along this scale), and b) investors can be nudged along the scale. Our experiments thus provide policy implications regarding nudges towards social investment. Practically, we suggest the development of a phone application that integrates real-time stock-tracking with nudges in order to inspire socially responsible investing; banks would play a key role in encouraging its download. Nudges can help to overcome the conflict between social and financial returns.
近年来,投资金融市场变得越来越复杂,投资产品和动机多种多样。随着社会投资和社会企业家精神的快速发展,学者们认识到,投资者和企业家在做出财务决策时,除了考虑财务回报外,还经常考虑广泛的社会因素。行为经济学家认为,理解影响社会投资者决策的复杂经济和行为/心理因素是很重要的。在本文中,我们借鉴了行为经济学(特别是社会偏好理论)的经验教训,以便对投资者的社会和金融思维模式进行神经经济学测试。我们专注于两个主要的研究问题:a)(社会)投资者在财务和社会回报上的无意识权重有多高?投资者的思维模式能否被置于一个连续体上,从关注社会回报,到混合动机/权重,再到关注财务回报?b)投资者能被推动沿着这个连续体前进吗?我们通过两个神经实验来解决这两个研究问题。我们采用眼球追踪技术来检查投资者对金融市场投资的社会和金融方面的关注和关注。此外,我们还使用与积极和消极的社会行为有关的图像的形式来推动。我们的实验表明,a)投资者确实可以被置于金融-社会动机连续体上(并且社会投资者的动机在这个尺度上存在异质性),b)投资者可以被推到这个尺度上。因此,我们的实验提供了推动社会投资的政策含义。实际上,我们建议开发一款手机应用程序,将实时股票跟踪与推文相结合,以激励社会责任投资;银行将在鼓励下载方面发挥关键作用。轻推有助于克服社会回报和经济回报之间的冲突。
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引用次数: 3
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Decision-Making in Economics eJournal
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