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2021 International Conference on Computer, Blockchain and Financial Development (CBFD)最新文献

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An Index Model of Stock Market Based on Investors’ Behavioral Contagion 基于投资者行为传染的股票市场指数模型
Pub Date : 2021-04-01 DOI: 10.1109/CBFD52659.2021.00032
Qian Wang
Under the framework of behavioral finance, the modeling idea of the SIS epidemic model is used to study investors’ behavioral contagion affecting the capital flow of the stock market. An index model of the stock market is established and stability of equilibrium is analyzed. The threshold theorem applicable to the stock market is obtained. This paper quantifies the behavioral contagion of investors by defining the investment infection rate and the investment removal rate. The model built on this basis can more accurately describe the behavior of investors in actual investment decision-making and its impact on stock indexes. Both the theoretical research and empirical analysis indicate the rises and falls of the stock are consistent with changes in the proportion of the infection rate and the removal rate, revealing a clear positive correlation and the dominant nonlinear relationship. Finally, the Granger causality test is carried out, and the results show that investor behavioral contagion is the cause of the stock market’s rise and fall changes. Investor behavior contagion affects the stock price, but the stock price changes are not the cause of contagious changes in investor behavior.
在行为金融学的框架下,运用SIS流行病模型的建模思想,研究投资者行为传染对股票市场资金流动的影响。建立了股票市场的指数模型,并分析了均衡的稳定性。得到了适用于股票市场的阈值定理。本文通过定义投资感染率和投资撤资率来量化投资者的行为传染。在此基础上建立的模型可以更准确地描述投资者在实际投资决策中的行为及其对股指的影响。理论研究和实证分析均表明,种群的涨跌与感染率和去除率所占比例的变化一致,呈现出明显的正相关关系和占主导地位的非线性关系。最后进行格兰杰因果检验,结果表明投资者行为传染是股市涨跌变化的原因。投资者行为传染影响股票价格,但股票价格的变化并不是投资者行为传染变化的原因。
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引用次数: 0
Currency Market Portfolio Constructions Based on Purchasing Power Parity Strategy and Refinement 基于购买力平价策略的货币市场投资组合构建及优化
Pub Date : 2021-04-01 DOI: 10.1109/CBFD52659.2021.00107
Xinyi Ruan, Yuejia Zhang, Zhiheng Zhang
Purchasing power parity is a powerful way to measure the currency value of different countries or regions. This strategy has been widely used in forecasting financial foreign exchange markets. Through purchasing power parity's evaluation of the value of currency, we have designed a foreign exchange investment strategy to predict whether to buy currency. We hope that PPP through simulated trading tests will become a good foreign exchange strategy and more people can make profits in foreign exchange market through purchasing power parity strategy. We tested the data of G20 countries from 1999 to 2019, and simulated trading whether these countries’ currencies can be profitable under the purchasing power parity strategy. Through simulated trading tests, emerging markets have performed poorly, and developed markets have performed better than emerging markets. In the developed market, most of the simulated trading has made profits, while the emerging markets all show a loss. Through the stimulation, we believe that purchasing power parity is not a good foreign exchange trading strategy.
购买力平价是衡量不同国家或地区货币价值的有力方法。该策略在金融外汇市场预测中得到了广泛应用。通过购买力平价对货币价值的评估,我们设计了一个外汇投资策略来预测是否购买货币。我们希望PPP通过模拟交易测试成为一种好的外汇策略,让更多的人通过购买力平价策略在外汇市场上获利。我们测试了1999年至2019年G20国家的数据,并模拟交易这些国家的货币在购买力平价策略下是否可以盈利。通过模拟交易测试,新兴市场表现不佳,发达市场表现优于新兴市场。在发达市场,大多数模拟交易都盈利了,而新兴市场的模拟交易都亏损了。通过刺激,我们认为购买力平价并不是一个好的外汇交易策略。
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引用次数: 0
Investigating the Price of Floating Lookback Option and Fixed Lookback Option Based on Facebook Stock 基于Facebook股票的浮动期权和固定期权价格研究
Pub Date : 2021-04-01 DOI: 10.1109/CBFD52659.2021.00078
Jingzhu Mu, Jinjie Lao
The lookback option is one of the exotic options but the only option that allows investors to reduce risks by looking back at the option period. Compared with other options, it allows the holder to know history when determining when to exercise their option, which reduces uncertainties and solves the market timing problem. However, not many people currently realize the benefits of the option and why they should invest. In the paper, we analyze the lookback option based on its unique characteristics and options theory. We established this paper with the Black-Scholes Merton method by taking Facebook as an underlying asset to simulate the stock price and the payoffs from the fixed lookback call option and floating lookback call option. At the end of the analysis, we concluded that the change of strike price leads to an obvious change to the fixed lookback option and European Option price, compared to the floating lookback option. The change of both spot price and volatility contributes a clear difference to the lookback option relative to the European Option. Besides, the lookback option solves the market timing problems even though with a higher option price. This paper aims to explain to investors that the lookback option is one of the best options for investment.
回顾期权是一种奇特的期权,但也是唯一一种允许投资者通过回顾期权期来降低风险的期权。与其他期权相比,它允许持有者在决定何时行使期权时了解历史,减少了不确定性,解决了市场时机问题。然而,目前并没有多少人意识到期权的好处以及为什么他们应该投资。本文从回溯期权的特点出发,结合期权理论对回溯期权进行分析。本文采用Black-Scholes Merton方法,以Facebook为标的资产,模拟股票价格以及固定回看期权和浮动回看期权的收益。在分析的最后,我们得出了执行价格的变化导致固定回看期权和欧洲期权价格的明显变化,相对于浮动回看期权。现货价格和波动率的变化使得回溯期权相对于欧式期权有明显的差异。此外,虽然期权价格较高,但回溯期权解决了市场择时问题。本文旨在向投资者解释,回顾期权是投资的最佳选择之一。
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引用次数: 0
Intelligent Penetration Technology of Power Web System Vulnerability Based on Deep Learning 基于深度学习的电网系统漏洞智能渗透技术
Pub Date : 2021-04-01 DOI: 10.1109/CBFD52659.2021.00048
Liang Chen, Jie Li, Bocheng Zhang
At present, there are some security risks existing in power web system, such as large number of systems, low efficiency of vulnerability identification, poor intelligence level of vulnerability penetration and so on. To solve the problems, this paper studies parallel crawler and multithreaded crawler scanning technology to effectively improve the code and data crawling speed of power web system, so as to improve the efficiency of vulnerability scanning identification. Furthermore, the paper studies the decision-making selection technology of vulnerability feature pattern recognition and vulnerability intelligent detection model of power web system based on LSTM, breaks through the key technologies of semi-automatic outlier sample detection and intelligent vulnerability location and identification, effectively improves the efficiency of vulnerability location and identification, and reduces the labor cost in the process of data processing. Then, based on neural network algorithm, combined with expert experience and exploitation characteristics, the combination rules of parallel and chain are trained. Finally, the deep neural network algorithm is used to judge the feasibility of vulnerability exploitation path, eliminate those paths that cannot be successfully attacked, and improve the success of vulnerability exploitation, so as to improve the ability of intelligent discovery of vulnerability risks.
目前,电网系统存在着系统数量多、漏洞识别效率低、漏洞渗透智能程度低等安全隐患。针对这些问题,本文研究了并行爬虫和多线程爬虫扫描技术,以有效提高电网系统的代码和数据爬行速度,从而提高漏洞扫描识别的效率。进一步研究了基于LSTM的电网系统漏洞特征模式识别的决策选择技术和漏洞智能检测模型,突破了半自动离群样本检测和漏洞智能定位识别的关键技术,有效提高了漏洞定位识别的效率,降低了数据处理过程中的人工成本。然后,基于神经网络算法,结合专家经验和开发特点,训练并行与链的组合规则;最后,利用深度神经网络算法判断漏洞利用路径的可行性,剔除无法成功攻击的路径,提高漏洞利用成功率,从而提高漏洞风险的智能发现能力。
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引用次数: 0
The supply-chain management strategy of agricultural B2C E-commerce on the basis of joint logistics 基于联合物流的农业B2C电子商务供应链管理策略
Pub Date : 2021-04-01 DOI: 10.1109/CBFD52659.2021.00098
Zhao Qiao
Supply chain management is the basic condition for agricultural e-commerce development, and joint logistics is the inevitable outcome of the e-commerce era. The supply chain management strategy for agricultural e-commerce on the basis of joint logistics is a new mode for marketization of agricultural products. Combining with the application of electronic commerce, B2C platform connects directly to agricultural producers and terminal consumers for logistics cost reducing and supply chain management improvement. This paper will start from the existing problems of agricultural products e-commerce supply chain management, lead to suggestions for the future management of agricultural products e-commerce supply chain.
供应链管理是农业电子商务发展的基本条件,联合物流是电子商务时代的必然产物。基于联合物流的农产品电子商务供应链管理战略是农产品市场化的一种新模式。B2C平台结合电子商务的应用,直接连接农业生产者和终端消费者,降低物流成本,改善供应链管理。本文将从农产品电子商务供应链管理存在的问题入手,对未来农产品电子商务供应链的管理提出建议。
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引用次数: 0
Serviceability Analysis of Monte Carlo Simulation for Stock Market Trading Price 股票市场交易价格蒙特卡罗模拟的适用性分析
Pub Date : 2021-04-01 DOI: 10.1109/CBFD52659.2021.00070
Liu Yu, Xiaoyan Wu, Zuosheng Zhou
When stocks are traded in the market, the price of stock has a great variation. Therefore, predicting the stock price is a huge challenge. Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is a typical method for stock price simulation. However, the serviceability of MCS is still insufficient. In this paper, the serviceability analysis has been done to evaluate the performance of MCS in different stocks price simulation. The results show that the Group 1, Group 5 and Group 8 have the highest predicted return under our condition settings. Among them, PDD has the biggest contribution, and the combinations holding PDD have a good return rate. Besides, the combinations holding WMT have a good performance of resisting risk because the WMT has better stability. The findings illustrate that the performance of Monte Carlo is influenced by stock itself more than the investment combination.
当股票在市场上交易时,股票的价格有很大的变化。因此,预测股价是一个巨大的挑战。蒙特卡罗模拟是股票价格模拟的一种典型方法。然而,MCS的可维护性仍然不足。本文通过适用性分析来评估MCS在不同股票价格模拟中的性能。结果表明,在我们的条件设置下,第1组、第5组和第8组的预测收益最高。其中,PDD贡献最大,持有PDD的组合收益率较好。此外,由于WMT具有较好的稳定性,持有WMT的组合具有较好的抗风险性能。研究结果表明,蒙特卡洛绩效受股票本身的影响大于受投资组合的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Visualization analysis of information economy based on CiteSpace 基于CiteSpace的信息经济可视化分析
Pub Date : 2021-04-01 DOI: 10.1109/CBFD52659.2021.00072
Kun Qian, Yingxue Li
information economy has formed its basic knowledge system and a good situation of integration with other disciplines after nearly 100 years of germination and development. The analysis and research of information economy is becoming more and more abundant. According to certain retrieval conditions, 863 literatures published from 1995 to 2021 are retrieved from CNKI database as data samples. CiteSpace software is used for visual analysis, CO citation analysis and cluster analysis are carried out on these literature data, and the corresponding knowledge map is drawn. This paper makes a comprehensive analysis of the research progress, content system and main application fields of information economics in China, and concludes that it has formed a basic knowledge system and a good situation of integration with other disciplines.
信息经济经过近百年的萌芽和发展,已经形成了自己的基本知识体系,并与其他学科形成了良好的融合态势。对信息经济的分析和研究越来越丰富。按照一定的检索条件,从CNKI数据库中检索1995 - 2021年发表的863篇文献作为数据样本。利用CiteSpace软件进行可视化分析,对这些文献数据进行CO被引分析和聚类分析,并绘制相应的知识图谱。本文综合分析了国内信息经济学的研究进展、内容体系和主要应用领域,认为信息经济学已形成基本的知识体系和与其他学科融合的良好局面。
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引用次数: 0
Does Digital Financial Inclusion Promote SME Innovation? : -- Evidence from SMEs listed companies 数字普惠金融促进中小企业创新吗?——来自中小企业上市公司的证据
Pub Date : 2021-04-01 DOI: 10.1109/CBFD52659.2021.00088
Qiuting Zhao, Yuxi He, Huchuan Zhang
Based on the panel data of SMEs listed on the SME Board from 2014 to 2018, this paper constructs a benchmark regression model and a mediating effect model and conducts an empirical study on the relationship between the development degree of digital financial inclusion in China and the innovation of SMEs listed on the SME Board. The results show that the development degree of digital financial inclusion has a significant positive impact on enterprise innovation, and the promotion effect is more significant for small-scale enterprises. Digital financial inclusion also indirectly affects the level of innovation of enterprises through financing constraints. The results of replacing the digital financial inclusion index with the digital financial inclusion index are still significant. This paper puts forward implementing policies and letting them play a role in the investment and financing field for small and medium-sized enterprises. We should lift financing constraints, improve the efficiency of financing, and vigorously develop inclusive finance suggestions.
本文基于2014 - 2018年中小板上市中小企业面板数据,构建基准回归模型和中介效应模型,实证研究中国数字普惠金融发展程度与中小板上市中小企业创新之间的关系。研究结果表明,数字普惠金融发展程度对企业创新具有显著的正向影响,且对小规模企业的促进作用更为显著。数字普惠金融也通过融资约束间接影响企业的创新水平。用数字普惠金融指数代替数字普惠金融指数的效果仍然显著。本文提出在中小企业投融资领域实施政策,发挥政策作用。要解除融资约束,提高融资效率,大力提出普惠金融建议。
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引用次数: 1
Blockchain-based IoT security authentication system 基于区块链的物联网安全认证系统
Pub Date : 2021-04-01 DOI: 10.1109/CBFD52659.2021.00090
Gongguo Zhang, Zhou Wan
IoT devices have the characteristics of limited performance and mobility, which makes it difficult for traditional centralized security authentication methods to support security authentication in the current IoT environment. In order to cope with these challenges, this paper proposes a security authentication system named iot-chain in the Internet of Things, which provides attribute-based security authentication based on the Hyperledger Fabric blockchain framework. The system contains three kinds of chain codes, namely access code, device code, and policy code. The access code is the main program that implements the user safety authentication method. The device code provides a query method for the URL of the resource data generated by the storage device, and the policy code provides the access control strategy for the administrator user. Combining access control and blockchain technology, iot-chain provides dynamic security authentication management in the Internet of Things. Experimental results show that iot-chain can maintain high throughput and effectively reach consensus in a distributed system.
物联网设备具有性能和移动性有限的特点,传统的集中式安全认证方式难以支持当前物联网环境下的安全认证。为了应对这些挑战,本文提出了物联网中的iot-chain安全认证体系,该体系基于Hyperledger Fabric区块链框架,提供基于属性的安全认证。系统包含三种链码,分别是接入码、设备码和策略码。访问码是实现用户安全认证方法的主要程序。设备码提供了对存储设备生成的资源数据URL的查询方法,策略码提供了管理员用户的访问控制策略。iot-chain结合访问控制和区块链技术,为物联网提供动态安全认证管理。实验结果表明,在分布式系统中,物联网链可以保持高吞吐量并有效达成共识。
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引用次数: 8
Quantitative Analysis of Stock Portfolio: Taking Six Technology Companies as Example 股票投资组合的定量分析——以六家科技公司为例
Pub Date : 2021-04-01 DOI: 10.1109/CBFD52659.2021.00101
Heng Li, Xiaoxi Zhu, Xiao Wang
This article introduces a quantitative analysis method of selected stocks with Python. Firstly, the portfolio weight of the six selected technology stocks with maximum Sharpe Ratio was determined. Secondly, the performance of the portfolio according to the historical data was back-tested. Also, Fama-French three-factor model was used to analyze the factors that might affect the stock price and a regression analysis was done on these factors. Through quantitative analysis, the portfolio weights with maximum Sharpe Ratio and minimum volatility of target stocks could be given out respectively.
本文介绍了一种用Python对精选股票进行定量分析的方法。首先,选取夏普比率最大的6只科技股,确定其投资组合权重;其次,根据历史数据对投资组合的表现进行回测。采用Fama-French三因素模型分析可能影响股价的因素,并对这些因素进行回归分析。通过定量分析,可以分别给出目标股夏普比最大和波动率最小的组合权重。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
2021 International Conference on Computer, Blockchain and Financial Development (CBFD)
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