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Welfare Impact of Trade Liberalization 贸易自由化对福利的影响
Pub Date : 2008-10-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1323697
S. Cho, Julián P. Díaz
This paper constructs a static Applied General Equilibrium Model and analyzes the distributional impact of trade reforms. To calibrate our model, we work with the Household Expenditure Survey to disaggregate household groups by income, age, and skill intensity, and the Input-Output table to construct a Social Accounting Matrix. Our benchmark simulation looks at Slovenia joining the European Union. We then compare with two alternative scenarios: a free trade agreement between Slovenia and the EU, and an alternative fiscal arrangement of distributing tariff revenues under the EU. While trade reforms lead to falling prices in the import sector, rising production in the export sector, and improvement in aggregate welfare, the distributional impacts across household groups vary in its degree.
本文构建了一个静态的应用一般均衡模型,分析了贸易改革对分配的影响。为了校准我们的模型,我们利用家庭支出调查按收入、年龄和技能强度对家庭群体进行分类,并利用投入产出表构建社会会计矩阵。我们的基准模拟着眼于斯洛文尼亚加入欧盟。然后,我们比较了两种替代方案:斯洛文尼亚与欧盟之间的自由贸易协定,以及在欧盟下分配关税收入的替代财政安排。虽然贸易改革导致进口部门价格下降,出口部门产量增加,总福利改善,但对家庭群体的分配影响程度各不相同。
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引用次数: 0
Information Diffusion among International Fund Managers: Multi-Country Evidence 国际基金经理的信息扩散:多国证据
Pub Date : 2008-09-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1115276
J. Parwada, Joey (Wenling) Yang
Investors seeking exposure to global equity markets commonly buy international mutual funds managed by locally based fund managers. How competitive is this form of intermediated investing? We investigate whether international equity fund managers mimic each other's portfolio holdings and analyze the performance implications of these actions. Managers based in the same country have more stocks held in common than those of their peers in other countries. Correlated trading among domestic fund managers contributes significantly to this pattern. Cross-border managers' portfolio holdings and trades are also relevant to the actions of domestic managers. Stock selection strategies based on mimicry and differentiation both deliver short-term superior performance. Mimicked sales occur while prices are rising.
寻求投资于全球股市的投资者通常会购买由本地基金管理公司管理的国际共同基金。这种中间投资形式的竞争力如何?我们调查了国际股票基金经理是否模仿彼此的投资组合,并分析了这些行为对业绩的影响。同一国家的基金经理共同持有的股票多于其他国家的基金经理。国内基金管理公司之间的相关交易对这种模式有显著贡献。跨境基金经理的投资组合持有和交易也与国内基金经理的行为相关。基于模仿和差异化的选股策略都能带来短期的优异表现。模仿销售发生在价格上涨的时候。
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引用次数: 1
An Investigation of Life Insurer Efficiency in Canada 加拿大寿险公司效率调查
Pub Date : 2008-07-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1173082
W. Wise, S. Purcal
This paper explores the effect of the cost and profit efficiency of Canadian life insurers on their return on equity (ROE). We take the data submitted by these insurers to the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) for 2000 through 2004 and determine 1) the extent of the profit and cost efficiency of the various Canada life insurers and 2) how this affects their ROE. We also explore how other factors such as company size, debt ratio and amount of new business written affect ROE. The values are determined using stochastic frontier analysis for both companies as a whole and separately for the various lines of business (LOBs) within the companies. The results of the investigation show us that both the profit and cost efficiency is very important in determining the ROE of a life insurer as a whole and is much more so than the other factors explored. Indeed the average inefficiency of the insurers reduces their average ROE anywhere from 11% to 38% of its potential value depending upon the method of measurement used. It is found that in order to increase its ROE by even 1% (e.g. from 10% to 11%) by adjusting its size, debt ratio or amount of new business written it is (virtually) impossible for a life insurer and the only reasonable way to do so is by improving its efficiency. In addition profit efficiency by LOB is seen, for the most part, to be important in determining the ROE of the LOB and is also more so than the other factors explored. There are some LOBs where the importance of profit efficiency is difficult to determine, mostly because of a lack of data.
本文探讨了加拿大寿险公司的成本效率和利润效率对其净资产收益率的影响。我们将这些保险公司提交给金融机构监督办公室(OSFI) 2000年至2004年的数据,并确定1)加拿大各寿险公司的利润和成本效率的程度,以及2)这如何影响它们的ROE。我们还探讨了其他因素,如公司规模、负债率和新业务的金额如何影响净资产收益率。这些值是使用随机前沿分析来确定的,用于两个公司作为一个整体,并单独用于公司内的各种业务线(lob)。调查结果表明,利润和成本效率都是决定寿险公司整体净资产收益率的重要因素,而且比其他因素更重要。事实上,保险公司的平均效率低下降低了他们的平均净资产收益率,从潜在价值的11%到38%不等,这取决于所使用的测量方法。研究发现,为了通过调整其规模、负债率或新业务的金额来增加其1%的ROE(例如从10%增加到11%),对于人寿保险公司来说(实际上)是不可能的,唯一合理的方法就是提高其效率。此外,在大多数情况下,LOB的利润效率对于确定LOB的ROE很重要,并且比所探讨的其他因素更重要。在一些lob中,利润效率的重要性很难确定,主要是因为缺乏数据。
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引用次数: 0
The Need for Diagnostic Assessment of Bootstrap Predictive Models 自举预测模型诊断性评估的必要性
Pub Date : 2008-05-26 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.1134607
Glen Barnett, B. Zehnwirth
The bootstrap is, at heart, a way to obtain an approximate sampling distribution for a statistic (and hence, if required, produce a confidence interval). Where that statistic is a suitable estimator for a population parameter of interest, the bootstrap enables inferences about that parameter. In the case of simple situations the bootstrap is very simple in form, but more complex situations can be dealt with. The bootstrap can be modified in order to produce a predictive distribution (and hence, if required, prediction intervals). It is predictive distributions that are generally of prime interest to insurers (because they pay the outcome of the process, not its mean). The bootstrap has become quite popular in reserving in recent years, but it's necessary to use the bootstrap with caution. The bootstrap does not require the user to assume a distribution for the data. Instead, sampling distributions are obtained by resampling the data. However, the bootstrap certainly does not avoid the need for assumptions, nor for checking those assumptions. The bootstrap is far from a cure-all. It suffers from essentially the same problems as finding predictive distributions and sampling distributions of statistics by any other means. These problems are exacerbated by the time-series nature of the forecasting problem - because reserving requires prediction into never-before-observed calendar periods, model inadequacy in the calendar year direction becomes a critical problem. In particular, the most popular actuarial techniques - those most often used with the bootstrap - don't have any parameters in that direction, and are frequently mis-specified with respect to the behaviour against calendar time. Further, commonly used versions of the bootstrap can be sensitive to overparameterization - and this is a common problem with standard techniques. In this paper, we describe these common problems in using the bootstrap and how to spot them.
从本质上讲,自举是一种获得统计量近似抽样分布的方法(因此,如果需要,可以产生置信区间)。如果该统计量是感兴趣的总体参数的合适估计量,则自举可以对该参数进行推断。在简单的情况下,自举的形式非常简单,但可以处理更复杂的情况。可以修改自举,以产生预测分布(因此,如果需要,预测区间)。预测分布通常是保险公司最感兴趣的(因为他们支付的是过程的结果,而不是平均值)。近年来,bootstrap在保留中变得相当流行,但有必要谨慎使用bootstrap。引导不要求用户假定数据是分布的。相反,抽样分布是通过对数据重新抽样得到的。然而,引导当然不能避免假设的需要,也不能避免检查这些假设的需要。自我引导远不是万灵药。它所面临的问题与用其他方法寻找统计数据的预测分布和抽样分布的问题本质上是一样的。这些问题由于预测问题的时间序列性质而更加严重- -因为储备需要预测到从未观测到的历年期间,因此在历年方向上的模式不足成为一个严重问题。特别是,最流行的精算技术——那些最常与自举一起使用的技术——在这个方向上没有任何参数,并且经常根据日历时间的行为指定错误。此外,常用的bootstrap版本可能对过度参数化很敏感——这是标准技术的一个常见问题。在本文中,我们描述了这些常见的问题在使用bootstrap和如何发现它们。
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引用次数: 3
A Small Structural Monetary Policy Model for Small Open Economies with Debt Accumulation 具有债务积累的小型开放经济体的小结构货币政策模型
Pub Date : 2008-03-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781451869262.001.A001
Philippe D. Karam, A. Pagan
We extend a small New Keynesian structural model used for monetary policy analysis to address a richer class of policy issues that arise in open economy analysis. We draw a distinction between absorption and domestic output, and as the difference between the two is effectively the current account, there is now an explicit accumulation or decumulation of foreign liabilities in response to various shocks affecting the system. Such stock equilibria can now have an impact back on to the flows in the domestic economy. We perform simulations using parameters calibrated to the Canadian economy and compare the differences in impulse responses from the original model. Advantages in a forecasting environment owing to the ability to impose explicit projections about imports and exports are also exposed.
我们扩展了用于货币政策分析的小型新凯恩斯主义结构模型,以解决开放经济分析中出现的更丰富的政策问题。我们在吸收和国内产出之间做出了区分,由于两者之间的差额实际上是经常账户,因此现在有一种明确的外国负债积累或减记,以应对影响该体系的各种冲击。这种存量均衡现在可以对国内经济的流动产生影响。我们使用校准到加拿大经济的参数进行模拟,并比较原始模型的脉冲响应差异。由于能够对进出口作出明确预测,在预测环境方面的优势也暴露出来。
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引用次数: 8
The Liquidity Component of the Equity Premium 股权溢价的流动性成分
Pub Date : 2008-02-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1102115
P. Swan, André Levy
Adding a motivation for trading due to endowment differences to standard asset pricing assumptions, we investigate the impact of illiquidity due to small numbers of participants. We calibrate to observed activity levels, returns, transaction costs and volatility in equity markets. We show that, while the price of an illiquid asset is itself unaffected by its illiquidity, with the introduction of an equivalent liquid asset, which trades at a premium, we nonetheless replicate the findings of Mehra and Prescott (1985). The required transactional charges are modest in some calibrations. We show that the major part of the equity premium can be explained as a liquidity premium.
在标准资产定价假设中加入禀赋差异导致的交易动机,我们研究了参与者数量少导致的非流动性的影响。我们根据观察到的活动水平、回报、交易成本和股票市场的波动性进行校准。我们表明,虽然非流动性资产的价格本身不受其非流动性的影响,但随着同等流动性资产的引入(以溢价交易),我们仍然复制了Mehra和Prescott(1985)的发现。在某些校准中,所需的交易费用是适度的。我们表明,股权溢价的主要部分可以解释为流动性溢价。
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引用次数: 5
The Road to Riches: CEO Incentives and Firm Performance 《致富之路:CEO激励与公司绩效》
Pub Date : 2008-02-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1089968
Gavin Smith, P. Swan
CEO flow incentives, both stock options and bonuses, are positively related to measures of firm market valuation and operating performance suggesting incentives are an important mechanism to align CEO interests with shareholders. These findings are robust to alternative measures of firm valuation and operating performance. They are also persistent across various estimation techniques such as pooled OLS with clustered standard errors, firm random effects, and firm fixed effects and also after accounting for potential endogeneity between compensation and firm performance as well as firm heterogeneity. Providing CEOs with increased equity and bonus incentives is the "road to riches" for owners of a firm.
CEO流动激励,无论是股票期权还是奖金,都与公司市场估值和经营业绩呈正相关,这表明激励是将CEO利益与股东利益联系起来的重要机制。这些发现对于公司估值和经营业绩的替代措施是稳健的。它们也在各种估计技术中持续存在,例如具有聚类标准误差的汇总OLS,企业随机效应和企业固定效应,并且在考虑了薪酬与企业绩效之间的潜在内禀性以及企业异质性之后。为首席执行官提供更多的股权和奖金激励是公司所有者的“致富之路”。
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引用次数: 8
Econometric Analysis of Structural Systems with Permanent and Transitory Shocks 具有永久和短暂冲击的结构体系的计量经济学分析
Pub Date : 2008-02-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1251542
A. Pagan, M. Pesaran
This paper considers the implications of the permanent/transitory decomposition of shocks for identification of structural models in the general case where the model might contain more than one permanent structural shock. It provides a simple and intuitive generalization of the influential work of Blanchard and Quah (1989), and shows that structural equations with known permanent shocks can not contain error correction terms, thereby freeing up the latter to be used as instruments in estimating their parameters. The approach is illustrated by a re-examination of the identification schemes used by Wickens and Motto (2001), Shapiro and Watson (1988), King, Plosser, Stock, Watson (1991), Gali (1992, 1999) and Fisher (2006).
本文考虑了在模型可能包含不止一个永久性结构冲击的一般情况下,永久性/暂时性冲击分解对结构模型识别的影响。它对Blanchard和Quah(1989)的有影响力的工作提供了一个简单而直观的概括,并表明具有已知永久冲击的结构方程可以不包含误差校正项,从而使后者可以用作估计其参数的工具。通过对以下几个人使用的识别方案的重新考察,可以说明这一方法:Wickens and Motto(2001)、Shapiro and Watson(1988)、King、Plosser、Stock、Watson(1991)、Gali(1992、1999)和Fisher(2006)。
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引用次数: 78
Benchmarking Benchmarks: Measuring Characteristic Selectivity Using Portfolio Holdings Data 基准:使用投资组合持有数据测量特征选择性
Pub Date : 2008-01-15 DOI: 10.1111/J.1467-629X.2008.00263.X
Kingsley Y. Fong, Adrian D. Lee, D. Gallagher
This study proposes methodological adjustments to the widely adopted performance benchmarking methodology of Daniel et al. (1997) as a means of improving the precision of alpha measurement for active equity fund managers. We achieve this by considering the monthly updating of characteristic benchmarks and to ensure neutrality to the Standard & Poor's/Australian Stock Exchange 300 index. Applying this benchmark to a representative sample of active Australian equity funds and simulated passive portfolios that mimic fund manager-style characteristics, we find statistically different and lower tracking error compared with using the standard characteristic benchmark methodology. We also find evidence that the modified benchmark statistically infers an alpha closer to zero compared with the standard benchmark methodology. Our findings suggest that improved specifications of characteristic benchmarks represent better methods in quantifying fund manager skill.
本研究对Daniel et al.(1997)广泛采用的绩效基准测试方法提出了方法上的调整,作为提高主动股票基金经理alpha测量精度的一种手段。我们通过考虑每月更新特征基准并确保标准普尔/澳大利亚证券交易所300指数的中立性来实现这一目标。将该基准应用于积极的澳大利亚股票基金和模仿基金经理风格特征的模拟被动投资组合的代表性样本,我们发现与使用标准特征基准方法相比,统计差异和更低的跟踪误差。我们还发现证据表明,与标准基准方法相比,改进的基准在统计上推断出接近于零的alpha。我们的研究结果表明,改进的特征基准规范代表了量化基金经理技能的更好方法。
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引用次数: 16
Ownership Concentration, Agency Conflicts, and Dividend Policy in Japan 股权集中度、代理冲突与日本股利政策
Pub Date : 2006-12-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.953433
Kimie Harada, P. Nguyen
We examine the dividend policy of Japanese firms and find that dividend payout is negatively related to ownership concentration. This result contradicts the argument that dividends are substitute for shareholder monitoring, but supports the assumption that controlling shareholders extract private benefits at the expense of minority shareholders. Consistent with their lower payout, firms with dominant shareholders are less likely to increase dividends when profitability increases and more likely to omit dividends when investment opportunities improve. On the other hand, they are more likely to increase dividend when debt is high and less likely to omit dividends when debt increases, which is tantamount to a wealth transfer from debtholders. Overall, ownership concentration appears to play a critical role in corporate decisions, mainly due to the way it intensifies the agency conflicts between majority and minority shareholders.
我们考察了日本公司的股利政策,发现股利支付与股权集中度呈负相关。这一结果反驳了股息替代股东监督的观点,但支持了控股股东以牺牲中小股东利益为代价获取私人利益的假设。与较低的派息相一致,拥有主导股东的公司在盈利能力增加时不太可能增加派息,而在投资机会改善时更有可能忽略派息。另一方面,当债务高时,他们更有可能增加股息,而当债务增加时,他们不太可能忽略股息,这相当于债务持有人的财富转移。总体而言,所有权集中度似乎在公司决策中发挥了关键作用,主要是因为它加剧了大股东和小股东之间的代理冲突。
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引用次数: 43
期刊
UNSW Business School Research Paper Series
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