We consider an SIR model where the probability of infections between infected and susceptible individuals are viewed as Poisson trials. The probabilities of infection between pairwise susceptible-infected matches are thus order statistics. This implies that the reproduction rate is a random variable. We derive the first two moments of the distribution of Rt conditional on the information available at time t-1 for Poisson trials drawn from an arbitrary parent distribution with finite mean. We show that the variance of Rt is increasing in the proportion of susceptible individuals in the population, and that ex ante identical populations can exhibit large differences in the path of the virus. This has a number of implications for policy during pandemics.
{"title":"The Stochastic Reproduction Rate of a Virus","authors":"Richard Holden, D. J. Thornton","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3644911","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3644911","url":null,"abstract":"We consider an SIR model where the probability of infections between infected and susceptible individuals are viewed as Poisson trials. The probabilities of infection between pairwise susceptible-infected matches are thus order statistics. This implies that the reproduction rate is a random variable. We derive the first two moments of the distribution of Rt conditional on the information available at time t-1 for Poisson trials drawn from an arbitrary parent distribution with finite mean. We show that the variance of Rt is increasing in the proportion of susceptible individuals in the population, and that ex ante identical populations can exhibit large differences in the path of the virus. This has a number of implications for policy during pandemics.","PeriodicalId":23435,"journal":{"name":"UNSW Business School Research Paper Series","volume":"49 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76277817","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Among the economic consequences of the COVID-19 crisis are an increase in the number of the poor and the unemployed, economic downturns and lower demand for corporate products. Governments fail to meet the needs of the poor and to carry out public services and development projects. This study aims to improve the conditions of the indigent population (the poor, the elderly, the sick and the unemployed). It will also improve public services and development programs offered by governments and improve the conditions of most companies and banks. This will all be accomplished by maximizing returns of Corporate Tax without any increase in tax rates. This is done by having the government allow companies of all fields (commodities, services, projects, banks, etc) to pay all or part of their corporate taxes in the form of goods or services instead of cash. Provided that the corporate tax value is re-evaluated at the total cost price, that is, after deduction of all costs of production, management, marketing and financing, but without calculating any net profit for the company from its products. To explain it mathematically, the company would provide goods or services based on the following formula: [the current corporate taxes due/ (1- net profit ratio)]. Those products or services will be provided through the company’s normal outlets directly at regular prices, but without payment to both membership card carriers from the indigent population, and the government (for consumption and investment spending). For example, if the company owes $40,000 in corporate taxes and assuming that the company has a net profit of 20% (i.e. the total cost ratio is 80%), then the company will be obligated to either pay $40,000 in cash or offer products worth $50,000 ($40,000/80%). The companies might also choose a combination of the previous two allowances such as (e.g. $20,000 cash + $25,000 worth of products). All parties involved (the indigent population, the government, and companies of all kinds) will realize additional benefits from this tax policy in a non-zero-sum game, despite having conflicting economic interests. In addition, there is no loss or increased risk to any party. Besides, this argument is supported statistically, where results indicate that the GINI index (World Bank estimate) may affect GDP per capita (current US$) negatively, using the World Bank data for 59 countries from 2002 to 2018, according to Linear, Logarithmic, Quadratic and Growth models. This may support the argument that the more the fairness, the more the level of living. In general, this tax policy is valid for all products (goods, services, construction projects, and bank loans), because what is not suitable for the indigent population may be needed by the government. The overall cost of government spending decreases and more services are available and more developmental programs can be completed. Some of the objections that can arise is that governments may need liquidity, and tha
2019冠状病毒病危机的经济后果包括贫困人口和失业人数增加、经济衰退以及对企业产品的需求下降。政府未能满足穷人的需求，也未能开展公共服务和发展项目。这项研究的目的是改善贫困人口(穷人、老人、病人和失业者)的状况。它还将改善政府提供的公共服务和发展项目，并改善大多数公司和银行的条件。这一切都将通过在不增加税率的情况下最大化公司税回报来实现。这是通过政府允许所有领域的公司(商品、服务、项目、银行等)以商品或服务的形式而不是现金支付全部或部分公司税来实现的。前提是按总成本价格重新评估企业所得税价值，即扣除所有生产、经营、营销和融资成本后，不计算公司从其产品中获得的净利润。从数学上解释，公司将根据以下公式提供商品或服务:[当期应缴公司税/(1-净利润比率)]。这些产品或服务将通过公司的正常网点直接以正常价格提供，但不需要贫困人口和政府向会员卡运营商支付费用(用于消费和投资支出)。例如，如果公司欠4万美元的公司税，假设公司的净利润为20%(即总成本比率为80%)，那么公司将有义务支付4万美元的现金或提供价值5万美元的产品(4万美元/80%)。公司也可以选择前两种津贴的组合，例如(例如20000美元现金+ 25000美元的产品)。所有相关方(贫困人口、政府和各类公司)都将在一场非零和游戏中从这项税收政策中获得额外利益，尽管它们之间存在经济利益冲突。此外，不会对任何一方造成损失或增加风险。此外，这一论点得到了统计支持，根据线性、对数、二次和增长模型，使用世界银行2002年至2018年59个国家的数据，结果表明，基尼系数(世界银行估计)可能会对人均GDP(现价美元)产生负面影响。这可能支持了“越公平，生活水平越高”的论点。总的来说，这种税收政策对所有产品(商品、服务、建设项目和银行贷款)都是有效的，因为不适合贫困人口的东西可能是政府需要的。政府支出的总成本降低了，提供了更多的服务，完成了更多的发展项目。可能出现的一些反对意见是，政府可能需要流动性，而政府可能最有效地投资其资源。答案是，公司税不是唯一的税收来源，税收也不是政府收入的唯一来源。政府也决定了公司的参与率和净利润百分比。如前所述，公司也有权拒绝参与，但由于他们获得了更大的流动性，同时增加了对其产品的需求，他们应该期待参与。* Nagy Gayed和Peter Gayed为提议的税收政策建立了理论和实践框架。** Nader Alber对实际应用进行了数据描述和假设检验
{"title":"Post COVD-19 Economics: Maximizing the Return of Corporate Tax at the Same Levels to Improve the Conditions of the Poor, Development and Companies","authors":"N. Gayed, N. Alber, P. N. Gayed","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3634258","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3634258","url":null,"abstract":"Among the economic consequences of the COVID-19 crisis are an increase in the number of the poor and the unemployed, economic downturns and lower demand for corporate products. Governments fail to meet the needs of the poor and to carry out public services and development projects. This study aims to improve the conditions of the indigent population (the poor, the elderly, the sick and the unemployed). It will also improve public services and development programs offered by governments and improve the conditions of most companies and banks. This will all be accomplished by maximizing returns of Corporate Tax without any increase in tax rates. This is done by having the government allow companies of all fields (commodities, services, projects, banks, etc) to pay all or part of their corporate taxes in the form of goods or services instead of cash. Provided that the corporate tax value is re-evaluated at the total cost price, that is, after deduction of all costs of production, management, marketing and financing, but without calculating any net profit for the company from its products. \u0000 \u0000To explain it mathematically, the company would provide goods or services based on the following formula: [the current corporate taxes due/ (1- net profit ratio)]. Those products or services will be provided through the company’s normal outlets directly at regular prices, but without payment to both membership card carriers from the indigent population, and the government (for consumption and investment spending). For example, if the company owes $40,000 in corporate taxes and assuming that the company has a net profit of 20% (i.e. the total cost ratio is 80%), then the company will be obligated to either pay $40,000 in cash or offer products worth $50,000 ($40,000/80%). The companies might also choose a combination of the previous two allowances such as (e.g. $20,000 cash + $25,000 worth of products). All parties involved (the indigent population, the government, and companies of all kinds) will realize additional benefits from this tax policy in a non-zero-sum game, despite having conflicting economic interests. In addition, there is no loss or increased risk to any party. Besides, this argument is supported statistically, where results indicate that the GINI index (World Bank estimate) may affect GDP per capita (current US$) negatively, using the World Bank data for 59 countries from 2002 to 2018, according to Linear, Logarithmic, Quadratic and Growth models. This may support the argument that the more the fairness, the more the level of living. \u0000 \u0000In general, this tax policy is valid for all products (goods, services, construction projects, and bank loans), because what is not suitable for the indigent population may be needed by the government. The overall cost of government spending decreases and more services are available and more developmental programs can be completed. Some of the objections that can arise is that governments may need liquidity, and tha","PeriodicalId":23435,"journal":{"name":"UNSW Business School Research Paper Series","volume":"52 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76159618","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jennifer Alonso-García, M. Sherris, Samuel Thirurajah, Jonathan Ziveyi
This paper considers variable annuity contracts embedded with guaranteed minimum accumulation benefit (GMAB) riders when policyholder's proceeds are taxed. These contracts promise the return of the premium paid by the policyholder, or a higher stepped up value, at the end of the investment period. A partial differential valuation framework, which exploits the numerical method of lines, is used to determine fair fees that render the policyholder and insurer profits neutral. Two taxation regimes are considered; one where capital gains are allowed to offset losses and a second where gains do not offset losses, reflecting stylized institutional arrangements in Australia and the US respectively. Most insurance providers highlight the tax-deferred feature of a variable annuity. We show that the regime under which the insurance provider is taxed significantly impacts supply and demand prices. If losses are allowed to offset gains then this enhances the market, narrowing the gap between fees, and even producing higher demand than supply fees. On the other hand, when losses are not allowed to offset gains, then the demand-supply gap increases. When charging the demand price, we show that insurance companies would be profitable on average. Low (high) Sharpe ratios are not as profitable as policyholders are more likely to stay long (surrender).
{"title":"Taxation and Policyholder Behavior: The Case of Guaranteed Minimum Accumulation Benefits","authors":"Jennifer Alonso-García, M. Sherris, Samuel Thirurajah, Jonathan Ziveyi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3629101","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3629101","url":null,"abstract":"This paper considers variable annuity contracts embedded with guaranteed minimum accumulation benefit (GMAB) riders when policyholder's proceeds are taxed. These contracts promise the return of the premium paid by the policyholder, or a higher stepped up value, at the end of the investment period. A partial differential valuation framework, which exploits the numerical method of lines, is used to determine fair fees that render the policyholder and insurer profits neutral. Two taxation regimes are considered; one where capital gains are allowed to offset losses and a second where gains do not offset losses, reflecting stylized institutional arrangements in Australia and the US respectively. Most insurance providers highlight the tax-deferred feature of a variable annuity. We show that the regime under which the insurance provider is taxed significantly impacts supply and demand prices. If losses are allowed to offset gains then this enhances the market, narrowing the gap between fees, and even producing higher demand than supply fees. On the other hand, when losses are not allowed to offset gains, then the demand-supply gap increases. When charging the demand price, we show that insurance companies would be profitable on average. Low (high) Sharpe ratios are not as profitable as policyholders are more likely to stay long (surrender).","PeriodicalId":23435,"journal":{"name":"UNSW Business School Research Paper Series","volume":"37 5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77522810","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-05-28DOI: 10.5007/1983-4535.2020v13n2p140
Sandro Vieira Soares, Raimundo Nonato Lima Filho, Silvia Pereira de Castro Casa Nova
Este artigo tem por objetivo identificar se o Google Academico e uma opcao para analise de citacoes dos artigos publicados nos periodicos brasileiros de contabilidade. Para isto, foram coletadas as citacoes de 1.810 artigos publicados entre 2007 e 2012 por quinze revistas brasileiras de contabilidade; a coleta foi feita via Google Scholar nos meses de abril anos de 2014, 2015 e 2016. O percentual de artigos nao encontrados pelo Google Academico apresentou uma tendencia de queda ao longo do periodo: de 2,8% em abril de 2014 para 0,9% em abril de 2016. A frequencia de artigos cuja contagem de citacoes caiu entre 2014 e 2016 foi de 1,6% da amostra. O coeficiente de correlacao de postos de Spearman entre o Fator de Impacto de 5 anos do Spell e a media de citacoes dos artigos publicados entre 2008 e 2012 por revista e de rs = 0,918, embora o Google Academico tenha recuperado um numero de citacoes de 3 a 9 vezes maior por revista do que o Spell. A contribuicao deste artigo permite que os pesquisadores e instituicoes conhecam as limitacoes e possibilidades do uso do Google Academico nas pesquisas de analise de citacoes de artigos brasileiros e na analise do impacto das pesquisas.
{"title":"Google Acadêmico: Uma Opção Para Análise de Citações dos Periódicos Brasileiros de Contabilidade? (Google Scholar: An Option For Citation Analysis of Brazilian Accounting Journals?)","authors":"Sandro Vieira Soares, Raimundo Nonato Lima Filho, Silvia Pereira de Castro Casa Nova","doi":"10.5007/1983-4535.2020v13n2p140","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5007/1983-4535.2020v13n2p140","url":null,"abstract":"Este artigo tem por objetivo identificar se o Google Academico e uma opcao para analise de citacoes dos artigos publicados nos periodicos brasileiros de contabilidade. Para isto, foram coletadas as citacoes de 1.810 artigos publicados entre 2007 e 2012 por quinze revistas brasileiras de contabilidade; a coleta foi feita via Google Scholar nos meses de abril anos de 2014, 2015 e 2016. O percentual de artigos nao encontrados pelo Google Academico apresentou uma tendencia de queda ao longo do periodo: de 2,8% em abril de 2014 para 0,9% em abril de 2016. A frequencia de artigos cuja contagem de citacoes caiu entre 2014 e 2016 foi de 1,6% da amostra. O coeficiente de correlacao de postos de Spearman entre o Fator de Impacto de 5 anos do Spell e a media de citacoes dos artigos publicados entre 2008 e 2012 por revista e de rs = 0,918, embora o Google Academico tenha recuperado um numero de citacoes de 3 a 9 vezes maior por revista do que o Spell. A contribuicao deste artigo permite que os pesquisadores e instituicoes conhecam as limitacoes e possibilidades do uso do Google Academico nas pesquisas de analise de citacoes de artigos brasileiros e na analise do impacto das pesquisas.","PeriodicalId":23435,"journal":{"name":"UNSW Business School Research Paper Series","volume":"121 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87723729","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper intends to highlight a framework for valuating companies using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. This framework is a culmination of time spent at the AGSM, previous academic research on valuations and industry mentorship by various mentors/advisors in the financial services sector.
{"title":"Valuations Playbook: A look at Discounted Cashflow Valuations","authors":"Sharang Bharadwaj","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3608611","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3608611","url":null,"abstract":"This paper intends to highlight a framework for valuating companies using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. This framework is a culmination of time spent at the AGSM, previous academic research on valuations and industry mentorship by various mentors/advisors in the financial services sector.","PeriodicalId":23435,"journal":{"name":"UNSW Business School Research Paper Series","volume":"47 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74302189","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The immediate expensing of R&D expenditures conceals managers' knowledge about the R&D projects. I examine whether higher R&D-intensive firms voluntarily guide more to decrease this information asymmetry. R&D state tax credits serve as instrumental variable for R&D investments. While total earnings guidance remains unchanged, managers issue more quarterly earnings guidance and non-earnings guidance in lieu of annual earnings guidance. Consistent with uncertainty affecting the precision of longer-term earnings expectations, the substitution of quarterly guidance for annual guidance intensifies with innovation uncertainty. Difference-in-differences analyses around unexpected R&D jumps confirm that the increase in quarterly guidance derives from increases in information asymmetry. These findings demonstrate that firms trade off incentives to decrease information asymmetry with costs of uncertainty from R&D investments by issuing more quarterly and non-earnings guidance but reducing their annual earnings guidance. In conclusion, these results imply benefits of short-term earnings guidance when R&D investments discourage annual earnings guidance.
{"title":"R&D investments and management guidance: Trading off information asymmetry and uncertainty in firm disclosure","authors":"Svenja Dube","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3480874","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3480874","url":null,"abstract":"The immediate expensing of R&D expenditures conceals managers' knowledge about the R&D projects. I examine whether higher R&D-intensive firms voluntarily guide more to decrease this information asymmetry. R&D state tax credits serve as instrumental variable for R&D investments. While total earnings guidance remains unchanged, managers issue more quarterly earnings guidance and non-earnings guidance in lieu of annual earnings guidance. Consistent with uncertainty affecting the precision of longer-term earnings expectations, the substitution of quarterly guidance for annual guidance intensifies with innovation uncertainty. Difference-in-differences analyses around unexpected R&D jumps confirm that the increase in quarterly guidance derives from increases in information asymmetry. These findings demonstrate that firms trade off incentives to decrease information asymmetry with costs of uncertainty from R&D investments by issuing more quarterly and non-earnings guidance but reducing their annual earnings guidance. In conclusion, these results imply benefits of short-term earnings guidance when R&D investments discourage annual earnings guidance.","PeriodicalId":23435,"journal":{"name":"UNSW Business School Research Paper Series","volume":"28 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85279347","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper uses hand-collected quarterly values of the different Islamic banking products to answer the following questions: Do debt-like banking products dominate Islamic banks' assets, making them identical to conventional banks? Are bank performance and solvency sensitive to the product's inclination to achieve the aspirations of Islamic law? What are the implications of such diversification/concentration on banks' financial stability and performance? Results show that debt-like products contribute to banks' returns but increase the default probabilities. Profit-loss sharing products are significant for banks' solvency. The Herfindahl Hirschman Index and the Shannon Entropy (SE) indicate that diversification into financing modes that are in the real spirit of Islam is beneficial to bank solvency but harms returns.
{"title":"Islamic Banks Product Mix","authors":"Sara Al Balooshi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3806368","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3806368","url":null,"abstract":"This paper uses hand-collected quarterly values of the different Islamic banking products to answer the following questions: Do debt-like banking products dominate Islamic banks' assets, making them identical to conventional banks? Are bank performance and solvency sensitive to the product's inclination to achieve the aspirations of Islamic law? What are the implications of such diversification/concentration on banks' financial stability and performance? Results show that debt-like products contribute to banks' returns but increase the default probabilities. Profit-loss sharing products are significant for banks' solvency. The Herfindahl Hirschman Index and the Shannon Entropy (SE) indicate that diversification into financing modes that are in the real spirit of Islam is beneficial to bank solvency but harms returns.","PeriodicalId":23435,"journal":{"name":"UNSW Business School Research Paper Series","volume":"53 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89324020","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Rating transition matrices have become a workhorse of the IFRS 9 expected credit loss and ICAAP stress test modelling. The standard method to stress a through-the-cycle transition matrix is based on a single factor Gaussian model with a correlation parameter that is usually estimated on the level of a product pool. The goal of the paper is to generalize the model allowing for more general distributional assumptions and to test empirically the sensitivity of the results with respect to these assumptions and different possible approaches to the correlation parameter estimation. We are not aware of any such empirical study in the literature. The results show that this dependence is very strong with the standard approach underestimating the results, as we argue, of a more precise calculation many times. Therefore, there is a significant model risk that needs to be taken into account in ICAAP/IFRS 9 implementation and dealt with in further research.
{"title":"Stressing of Migration Matrices for IFRS 9 and ICAAP Calculations","authors":"J. Witzany","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3542398","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3542398","url":null,"abstract":"Rating transition matrices have become a workhorse of the IFRS 9 expected credit loss and ICAAP stress test modelling. The standard method to stress a through-the-cycle transition matrix is based on a single factor Gaussian model with a correlation parameter that is usually estimated on the level of a product pool. The goal of the paper is to generalize the model allowing for more general distributional assumptions and to test empirically the sensitivity of the results with respect to these assumptions and different possible approaches to the correlation parameter estimation. We are not aware of any such empirical study in the literature. The results show that this dependence is very strong with the standard approach underestimating the results, as we argue, of a more precise calculation many times. Therefore, there is a significant model risk that needs to be taken into account in ICAAP/IFRS 9 implementation and dealt with in further research.","PeriodicalId":23435,"journal":{"name":"UNSW Business School Research Paper Series","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84657488","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-02-10DOI: 10.26500/jarssh-05-2020-0105
Retha J. Mattern, Zhi Yang Brian Chan, James Ondracek, Andy Bertsch, M. Saeed
Valero Energy Corporation Case Study is suitable for undergraduate and graduate business students to apply critical thinking, qualitative and quantitative analyses, and decision making. The case study features Valero Energy Corporation its quest for relevance and above average returns. Established in 1980, Valero Energy Corporation (Valero) is currently one of the biggest petroleum refiners in the oil and gas industry both in the United States and internationally. Headquartered in San Antonio, Texas, Valero owns 15 petroleum refineries and 14 ethanol plants. This case study underscores the challenges Valero Energy Corporation face in the midstream and downstream sector of the industry and emphasizes external factors such as weather and geopolitical influences. The prices of crude oil are stabilizing but uncertainty in the market and the slowdown of economic growth internationally will remain a challenge for Valero Energy Corporation in the short-term future. Companies in the oil and gas sector will continue to enforce capital discipline as a long-term strategy to prepare them for the economic uncertainty ahead and unsteady industry conditions. Valero’s strategic acquisitions and divestitures have helped the company through tough times in the past, but is Valero’s mix of assets appropriate today?
瓦莱罗能源公司案例研究适合本科和研究生的商业学生应用批判性思维，定性和定量分析，以及决策。该案例研究的特点是Valero能源公司寻求相关性和高于平均水平的回报。瓦莱罗能源公司(Valero Energy Corporation)成立于1980年，目前是美国和国际石油和天然气行业最大的炼油商之一。Valero总部位于德克萨斯州圣安东尼奥，拥有15家炼油厂和14家乙醇厂。本案例研究强调了Valero能源公司在中游和下游行业面临的挑战，并强调了天气和地缘政治影响等外部因素。原油价格趋于稳定，但市场的不确定性和国际经济增长放缓仍将是Valero能源公司短期内面临的挑战。石油和天然气行业的公司将继续执行资本纪律，作为一项长期战略，为未来的经济不确定性和不稳定的行业环境做好准备。Valero的战略性收购和资产剥离帮助公司度过了过去的艰难时期，但如今Valero的资产组合是否合适?
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We study potential impacts of future climate change on U.S. agricultural productivity using county-level yield and weather data from 1950 to 2015. To account for adaptation of production to different weather conditions, it is crucial to allow for both spacial and temporal variation in the production process mapping weather to crop yields. We present a new panel data estimation technique, called mean observation OLS (MO-OLS) that allows for spatial and temporal heterogeneity in all regression parameters (intercepts and slopes). Both forms of heterogeneity are important: We find strong evidence that production function parameters adapt to local climate, and also that sensitivity of yield to high temperature declined from 1950-89. We use our estimates to project corn yields to 2100 using 19 climate models and three greenhouse gas emission scenarios. We predict unmitigated climate change will greatly reduce yield. Our mean prediction (over climate models) is that adaptation alone can mitigate 36% of the damage, while emissions reductions consistent with the Paris targets would mitigate 76%.
{"title":"Climate Change and U.S. Agriculture: Accounting for Multi-dimensional Slope Heterogeneity in Production Functions","authors":"M. Keane, Timothy Neal","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3180480","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3180480","url":null,"abstract":"We study potential impacts of future climate change on U.S. agricultural productivity using county-level yield and weather data from 1950 to 2015. To account for adaptation of production to different weather conditions, it is crucial to allow for both spacial and temporal variation in the production process mapping weather to crop yields. We present a new panel data estimation technique, called mean observation OLS (MO-OLS) that allows for spatial and temporal heterogeneity in all regression parameters (intercepts and slopes). Both forms of heterogeneity are important: We find strong evidence that production function parameters adapt to local climate, and also that sensitivity of yield to high temperature declined from 1950-89. We use our estimates to project corn yields to 2100 using 19 climate models and three greenhouse gas emission scenarios. We predict unmitigated climate change will greatly reduce yield. Our mean prediction (over climate models) is that adaptation alone can mitigate 36% of the damage, while emissions reductions consistent with the Paris targets would mitigate 76%.","PeriodicalId":23435,"journal":{"name":"UNSW Business School Research Paper Series","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85512403","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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