The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) forms an essential component of the global ocean circulation. Paleoclimate records indicate the AMOC’s capability to tip between different states that resulted in large global climate impacts. Using an AMOC box model, re‐calibrated against a global circulation model, HadGEM3, we present a new bifurcation analysis and showcase mechanisms that may lead the AMOC to tip from its current ‘on’ state to a collapsed ‘off’ state under climate change. We find that bifurcation‐ and noise‐induced tipping remain viable tipping mechanisms as in previous calibrations, while rate‐induced tipping only occurs for specific parameter configurations of this model.
{"title":"Tipping mechanisms in a conceptual model of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation","authors":"Ruth Chapman, Sacha Sinet, Paul D. L. Ritchie","doi":"10.1002/wea.7609","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.7609","url":null,"abstract":"The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) forms an essential component of the global ocean circulation. Paleoclimate records indicate the AMOC’s capability to tip between different states that resulted in large global climate impacts. Using an AMOC box model, re‐calibrated against a global circulation model, HadGEM3, we present a new bifurcation analysis and showcase mechanisms that may lead the AMOC to tip from its current ‘on’ state to a collapsed ‘off’ state under climate change. We find that bifurcation‐ and noise‐induced tipping remain viable tipping mechanisms as in previous calibrations, while rate‐induced tipping only occurs for specific parameter configurations of this model.","PeriodicalId":23637,"journal":{"name":"Weather","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141931240","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Weather, Vol. 79, no. 8, August 2024, pp. 246‐276","authors":"","doi":"10.1002/wea.4436","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.4436","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":23637,"journal":{"name":"Weather","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141885330","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"June 2024. Very cool and showery for 2 weeks, then a late month warm spell","authors":"","doi":"10.1002/wea.7605","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.7605","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":23637,"journal":{"name":"Weather","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141885335","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Meri Virman, Mika Rantanen, Terhi K. Laurila, Antti Mäkelä, Daan van den Broek, Hilppa Gregow
Thunderstorms are common in Finland, however, high‐impact damaging cases do not occur every summer. On 21–23 June 2021, three damaging thunderstorms, named Ahti, Paula and Aatu, occurred in Finland. We provide an overview of the thunderstorms and their environment and impacts. The thunderstorms led to heavy rain, hail, intense lightning and, most notably, extensive forest damage due to strong surface wind gusts.
{"title":"Damaging thunderstorms in Finland in June 2021","authors":"Meri Virman, Mika Rantanen, Terhi K. Laurila, Antti Mäkelä, Daan van den Broek, Hilppa Gregow","doi":"10.1002/wea.7602","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.7602","url":null,"abstract":"Thunderstorms are common in Finland, however, high‐impact damaging cases do not occur every summer. On 21–23 June 2021, three damaging thunderstorms, named <jats:italic>Ahti</jats:italic>, <jats:italic>Paula</jats:italic> and <jats:italic>Aatu</jats:italic>, occurred in Finland. We provide an overview of the thunderstorms and their environment and impacts. The thunderstorms led to heavy rain, hail, intense lightning and, most notably, extensive forest damage due to strong surface wind gusts.","PeriodicalId":23637,"journal":{"name":"Weather","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141774519","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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