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Modelling spatial patterns of forest fire occurrence in the Northwestern region of Vietnam 越南西北部地区森林火灾发生的空间模式建模
IF 1.5 Q2 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-18 DOI: 10.15625/2615-9783/20366
Trang Thanh Pham, Thuan Chu, Bao Quang Tran
Forest fires present a significant threat to the tropical forest ecosystem in the northwestern region of Vietnam. Our study aimed to assess the impacts of environmental factors on forest fire occurrence and to map forest fire probability for the whole region. The forest fire occurrence data over the period 2003 – 2016, environmental factors (climate, fuel condition, topography, and human activity), and the MaxEnt approach were used for this study. The MaxEnt model performed better than the random model (AUC>0.88). Climatic factors (especially climatic seasonality: annual temperature range (bio_07), isothermality (bio_03), and precipitation of warmest quarter (bio_18)) had the highest contribution to the model, followed by population density and elevation. In contrast, fuel condition (Land cover type) had a small contribution to the model. While medium, high, and very high probabilities of forest fire occurred at medium to high elevations (e.g., Dien Bien, Son La, and Lai Chau provinces) throughout southern to northern and western areas, very low and low probability concentrated southeastern areas at lower elevations (mainly in Hoa Bình province). Our results may be helpful references for fire managers and policymakers to establish more effective fire management strategies for the region's forest.
森林火灾对越南西北部地区的热带森林生态系统构成严重威胁。我们的研究旨在评估环境因素对森林火灾发生的影响,并绘制整个地区的森林火灾概率图。本研究采用了 2003 - 2016 年期间的森林火灾发生数据、环境因素(气候、燃料状况、地形和人类活动)以及 MaxEnt 方法。MaxEnt 模型的表现优于随机模型(AUC>0.88)。气候因素(尤其是气候季节性:年温度范围(bio_07)、等温线(bio_03)和最暖季度降水量(bio_18))对模型的贡献最大,其次是人口密度和海拔高度。相比之下,燃料条件(土地覆被类型)对模型的贡献较小。森林火灾的中等、高和极高发生概率出现在整个南部至北部和西部的中高海拔地区(如奠边省、山罗省和莱州省),极低和低发生概率则集中在海拔较低的东南部地区(主要在和平原省)。我们的研究结果可能有助于火灾管理者和决策者为该地区的森林制定更有效的火灾管理策略。
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引用次数: 0
Groundwater potential zoning using Logistics Model Trees based novel ensemble machine learning model 利用基于物流模型树的新型集合机器学习模型进行地下水潜力分区
IF 1.5 Q2 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-11 DOI: 10.15625/2615-9783/20316
Bien Tran Xuan, Trinh Pham The, Duong Luu Thuy, Phong Tran Van, Nhat Vuong Hong, Hiep Van Le, Dam Duc Nguyen, Indra Prakash, Tam Pham Thanh, Binh Binh Thai
In this work, the main aim is to map the potential zones of groundwater in Central Highlands (Vietnam) using a novel ensemble machine learning model, namely CG-LMT, which is a combination of two advanced techniques, namely Cascade Generalization (CG) and Logistics Model Trees (LMT). For this, a total of 501 wells data and a set of twelve affecting factors were gathered and selected to generate training and testing datasets used for building and validating the model. Validation of the models was implemented utilizing various quantitative indices, including ROC curve. Results of the present study indicated that the novel ensemble model performed well for groundwater potential mapping and modeling (AUC = 0.742), and its predictive capability is even better than a single LMT model (AUC = 0.727). Thus, the CG-LMT is a promising tool for accurately predicting potential groundwater areas. In addition, the potential map of groundwater generated from the CG-LMT model is a helpful tool for better-studying water resource management in the area.
本研究的主要目的是利用一种新型集合机器学习模型(即 CG-LMT 模型)绘制越南中央高原地区的地下水潜势区地图,该模型结合了两种先进技术,即级联泛化(CG)和物流模型树(LMT)。为此,收集并选择了总共 501 口井的数据和一组 12 个影响因素,以生成用于构建和验证模型的训练数据集和测试数据集。利用 ROC 曲线等各种定量指标对模型进行了验证。本研究结果表明,新型集合模型在地下水潜势绘图和建模方面表现良好(AUC = 0.742),其预测能力甚至优于单一的 LMT 模型(AUC = 0.727)。因此,CG-LMT 是准确预测潜在地下水区域的一种有前途的工具。此外,CG-LMT 模型生成的地下水潜力图也有助于更好地研究该地区的水资源管理。
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引用次数: 0
Effects of jetstream on seasonal variations of tropical cyclone tracks in the East Sea 喷射气流对东海热带气旋路径季节变化的影响
IF 1.5 Q2 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-04 DOI: 10.15625/2615-9783/20261
Thang Vu Van, Tuan Bui Minh, Thuc Tran Duy, Thanh Cong
Tropical cyclones (TCs) frequently occurs and result in substantial socio-economic consequences for the countries around the East Sea. In this study, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) best tracks and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data are employed to investigate the effect of jetstream on the seasonal variations of the TC tracks. The results reveal four primary directions of the tracks: northeastward, northwestward, westward and southwestward. A low-level anomalous cyclone moving from the Western North Pacific (WNP) to the Indochina Peninsula (IP) plays a significant role in guiding the movement of the TCs. This anomalous cyclone is strongly modulated by the development of a wavetrain along the subtropical jetstream. In May, the wavetrain induces strong anomalous divergence to the east of China, leading to the northeastward expansion of the low-level anomalous cyclones, thereby directing the TCs to the northeast. From June to August, the jetstream shifts to higher latitudes, reducing its impact on the TC tracks. From September to December, the jetstream moves back to the south; however, its effect on the TC tracks is opposite to that in May. During this time, the wavetrain accelerates an anomalous anticyclone in Southeast China and the Western North Pacific, which in turn pushes the anomalous cyclone to the south and promotes westward and southwestward movement of the TCs in the East Sea.
热带气旋(TC)频繁发生,对东海周边国家造成了严重的社会经济影响。本研究采用联合台风警报中心(JTWC)的最佳路径和 NCEP/NCAR 再分析数据,研究喷流对热带气旋路径季节变化的影响。结果显示了四个主要的路径方向:东北向、西北向、西向和西南向。一个从北太平洋西部移动到印度支那半岛的低层异常气旋在引导热气旋移动方面发挥了重要作用。这个异常气旋受到沿副热带喷流发展的波列的强烈调节。5 月,波列在中国以东诱发强烈的异常辐散,导致低层异常气旋向东北方向扩展,从而引导热带气旋向东北方向移动。6 月至 8 月,喷气流向高纬度地区移动,减少了对热气旋路径的影响。从 9 月到 12 月,喷气流向南移动,但其对热气旋路径的影响与 5 月相反。在此期间,波列加速了中国东南部和北太平洋西部的异常反气旋,进而推动异常气旋向南移动,促进东海热带气旋向西和向西南移动。
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引用次数: 0
Impacts of EL NIÑO-Southern oscillation on tropical cyclone activity over the coastal zones of Vietnam 尼尼微-南方涛动对越南沿海地区热带气旋活动的影响
IF 1.5 Q2 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-06 DOI: 10.15625/2615-9783/20094
Co Nguyen Thanh, Thuy Hoang Luu Thu, Manh Dinh Van, Thuy Trinh Thi Thu
The activity of El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been found to alter the characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) worldwide. This paper examines how ENSO influences the active time, occurence frequencies, and intensities of TCs over the coastal zones of Vietnam. The study uses Best Track Data in the Western North Pacific region from 1961 to 2020. The wind speed fields of all TCs over the coastal zones are calculated using a semi-empirical model with a square grid of 0.05° resolution. The results show that the frequencies of TCs over the coastal zones decrease during El Niño years, whilethe TC intensities increase significantly compared to those in Neutral years. Meanwhile, TC intensities over all coastal zones during La Niña years, and some coastal zones during El Niño years, decrease significantly compared to those in Neutral years. The magnitudes of both the increase and decrease in TC frequencies and intensities over the coastal zones vary significantly. Moreover, the active time of TCs during La Niña years in some coastal zones is shorter and occurs later than during the Neutral years. 
厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)的活动改变了全球热带气旋(TC)的特征。本文探讨了厄尔尼诺/南方涛动如何影响越南沿海地区热带气旋的活跃时间、发生频率和强度。研究使用了 1961 年至 2020 年北太平洋西部地区的最佳路径数据。使用分辨率为 0.05°的方格网半经验模式计算了沿海地区所有 TC 的风速场。结果表明,与中性年相比,厄尔尼诺年沿岸带 TC 发生频数减少,而 TC 强度明显增加。同时,与中性年相比,拉尼娜年所有沿岸带和厄尔尼诺年部分沿岸带的 TC 强度明显下降。沿岸带 TC 频数和强度的增减幅度差异很大。此外,与中性年相比,拉尼娜年期间某些沿岸带的热 带气旋活动时间更短,出现的时间更晚。
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引用次数: 0
Impacts of EL NIÑO-Southern oscillation on tropical cyclone activity over the coastal zones of Vietnam 尼尼微-南方涛动对越南沿海地区热带气旋活动的影响
IF 1.5 Q2 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-06 DOI: 10.15625/2615-9783/20094
Co Nguyen Thanh, Thuy Hoang Luu Thu, Manh Dinh Van, Thuy Trinh Thi Thu
The activity of El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been found to alter the characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) worldwide. This paper examines how ENSO influences the active time, occurence frequencies, and intensities of TCs over the coastal zones of Vietnam. The study uses Best Track Data in the Western North Pacific region from 1961 to 2020. The wind speed fields of all TCs over the coastal zones are calculated using a semi-empirical model with a square grid of 0.05° resolution. The results show that the frequencies of TCs over the coastal zones decrease during El Niño years, whilethe TC intensities increase significantly compared to those in Neutral years. Meanwhile, TC intensities over all coastal zones during La Niña years, and some coastal zones during El Niño years, decrease significantly compared to those in Neutral years. The magnitudes of both the increase and decrease in TC frequencies and intensities over the coastal zones vary significantly. Moreover, the active time of TCs during La Niña years in some coastal zones is shorter and occurs later than during the Neutral years. 
厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)的活动改变了全球热带气旋(TC)的特征。本文探讨了厄尔尼诺/南方涛动如何影响越南沿海地区热带气旋的活跃时间、发生频率和强度。研究使用了 1961 年至 2020 年北太平洋西部地区的最佳路径数据。使用分辨率为 0.05°的方格网半经验模式计算了沿海地区所有 TC 的风速场。结果表明,与中性年相比,厄尔尼诺年沿岸带 TC 发生频数减少,而 TC 强度明显增加。同时,与中性年相比,拉尼娜年所有沿岸带和厄尔尼诺年部分沿岸带的 TC 强度明显下降。沿岸带 TC 频数和强度的增减幅度差异很大。此外,与中性年相比,拉尼娜年期间某些沿岸带的热 带气旋活动时间更短,出现的时间更晚。
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引用次数: 0
Effect of time-variant rainfall on landslide susceptibility: A case study in Quang Ngai Province, Vietnam 时变降雨对滑坡易发性的影响:越南广义省案例研究
IF 1.5 Q2 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.15625/2615-9783/20065
Viet Long Doan, Ba-Quang-Vinh Nguyen, Chi Cong Nguyen, Cuong Tien Nguyen
Rainfall is a triggering factor that causes landslides, especially in the regions where landslides often occur after consecutive days of heavy rainfall. Most previous studies only used a specific rainfall map for landslide susceptibility assessment. However, this approach was unreasonable because rainfall is a time-variant data. This study uses the time series data of 1-day, 3-day, 5-day, and 7-day maximum precipitation from 2016 to 2020 in the mountainous area of Quang Ngai province for landslide susceptibility assessment. These data and other influencing factors were used to develop landslide spatial prediction models using the Extreme Gradient Boosting method. The prediction model's performance was assessed using the statistical index and receiver operating characteristic curve methods. The testing results of 4 cases using consecutive days of maximum rainfall data demonstrated excellent performance. Of these, the model with a 3-day maximum rainfall with ACC = 0.813, kappa = 0.625, SST = 0.872, SPF = 0.754, and AUC = 0.895 had the best performance. In addition, these results were compared to the previous approach that used average annual rainfall. The validation result indicates that the cases using a time series of maximum precipitation (with AUC of approximately 0.9) outperform the cases with average annual rainfall (AUC=0.838). Finally, the model using 3-day maximum rainfall is then used for landslide spatial prediction mapping. These maps provide spatial prediction and assess landslide susceptibility corresponding to rainfall frequencies.
降雨是导致山体滑坡的一个诱发因素,尤其是在一些地区,山体滑坡往往发生在连续几天的强降雨之后。以往的研究大多只使用特定的降雨量地图来进行滑坡易发性评估。然而,这种方法是不合理的,因为降雨量是一个时变数据。本研究使用广义省山区 2016 年至 2020 年 1 天、3 天、5 天和 7 天最大降水量的时间序列数据进行滑坡易发性评估。利用这些数据和其他影响因素,采用极端梯度提升法建立了滑坡空间预测模型。预测模型的性能采用统计指数法和接收者工作特征曲线法进行评估。使用连续多日的最大降雨量数据对 4 个案例进行的测试结果表明,该模型性能优异。其中,3 天最大降雨量模型的 ACC = 0.813、kappa = 0.625、SST = 0.872、SPF = 0.754 和 AUC = 0.895 的性能最佳。此外,这些结果还与之前使用年平均降雨量的方法进行了比较。验证结果表明,使用最大降水量时间序列的案例(AUC 约为 0.9)优于使用年平均降水量的案例(AUC=0.838)。最后,使用 3 天最大降雨量的模型被用于绘制滑坡空间预测图。这些地图提供空间预测,并评估与降雨频率相对应的滑坡易发性。
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引用次数: 0
Effect of time-variant rainfall on landslide susceptibility: A case study in Quang Ngai Province, Vietnam 时变降雨对滑坡易发性的影响:越南广义省案例研究
IF 1.5 Q2 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.15625/2615-9783/20065
Viet Long Doan, Ba-Quang-Vinh Nguyen, Chi Cong Nguyen, Cuong Tien Nguyen
Rainfall is a triggering factor that causes landslides, especially in the regions where landslides often occur after consecutive days of heavy rainfall. Most previous studies only used a specific rainfall map for landslide susceptibility assessment. However, this approach was unreasonable because rainfall is a time-variant data. This study uses the time series data of 1-day, 3-day, 5-day, and 7-day maximum precipitation from 2016 to 2020 in the mountainous area of Quang Ngai province for landslide susceptibility assessment. These data and other influencing factors were used to develop landslide spatial prediction models using the Extreme Gradient Boosting method. The prediction model's performance was assessed using the statistical index and receiver operating characteristic curve methods. The testing results of 4 cases using consecutive days of maximum rainfall data demonstrated excellent performance. Of these, the model with a 3-day maximum rainfall with ACC = 0.813, kappa = 0.625, SST = 0.872, SPF = 0.754, and AUC = 0.895 had the best performance. In addition, these results were compared to the previous approach that used average annual rainfall. The validation result indicates that the cases using a time series of maximum precipitation (with AUC of approximately 0.9) outperform the cases with average annual rainfall (AUC=0.838). Finally, the model using 3-day maximum rainfall is then used for landslide spatial prediction mapping. These maps provide spatial prediction and assess landslide susceptibility corresponding to rainfall frequencies.
降雨是导致山体滑坡的一个诱发因素,尤其是在一些地区,山体滑坡往往发生在连续几天的强降雨之后。以往的研究大多只使用特定的降雨量地图来进行滑坡易发性评估。然而,这种方法是不合理的,因为降雨量是一个时变数据。本研究使用广义省山区 2016 年至 2020 年 1 天、3 天、5 天和 7 天最大降水量的时间序列数据进行滑坡易发性评估。利用这些数据和其他影响因素,采用极端梯度提升法建立了滑坡空间预测模型。预测模型的性能采用统计指数法和接收者工作特征曲线法进行评估。使用连续多日的最大降雨量数据对 4 个案例进行的测试结果表明,该模型性能优异。其中,3 天最大降雨量模型的 ACC = 0.813、kappa = 0.625、SST = 0.872、SPF = 0.754 和 AUC = 0.895 的性能最佳。此外,这些结果还与之前使用年平均降雨量的方法进行了比较。验证结果表明,使用最大降水量时间序列的案例(AUC 约为 0.9)优于使用年平均降水量的案例(AUC=0.838)。最后,使用 3 天最大降雨量的模型被用于绘制滑坡空间预测图。这些地图提供空间预测,并评估与降雨频率相对应的滑坡易发性。
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引用次数: 0
Delineating geological structure utilizing integration of remote sensing and gravity data: a study from Halmahera, North Molucca, Indonesia 利用遥感和重力数据整合划定地质结构:印度尼西亚北摩鹿加岛哈尔马赫拉的一项研究
IF 1.5 Q2 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-25 DOI: 10.15625/2615-9783/20010
P. U. Aprina, Djoko Santoso, S. Alawiyah, Nugroho Prasetyo, Khalil Ibrahim
Halmahera Island is the result of the interaction between the Indo-Australian Plate, the Molucca Sea Plate, and the Philippine Plate, which gave rise to many active geological structures that are vulnerable to seismic activity around the island. The complexity of this geological structure makes Halmahera Island very interesting to study. This study aims to identify geological structures by integrating remote sensing and gravity satellite data. Surface lineament analysis using the remote sensing method was carried out based on Sentinel-1A imagery data. The gravity method uses GGMPlus satellite data to clarify the continuity of geological structures that cannot be clearly mapped on the surface. Lineament analysis on gravity data uses techniques such as fast sigmoid edge detection (FSED) and Euler deconvolution. The results of lineament interpretation based on integrating remote sensing and gravity satellite data show that the NE-SW structure controls the northern and northeastern arms of Halmahera. In contrast, the southern arm is dominated by the NW-SE structure. The Euler depth estimation shows that the Halmahera area contributes to having geological structures at various depths. Deep structures reach 4 km, while shallow structures are found at depths of up to 2 km. Earthquake hypocenter data strengthen the interpretation of this geological structure. This comprehensive study yields an excellent correlation between gravity and remote sensing techniques in describing the general structural framework of the area. The new finding is an NE-SW trending geological structure on the northern Halmahera arm, which may be caused by two different tectonics first, the subduction of the Molucca Sea Plate with the Halmahera Plate in the west. Second, the strike-slip movement is trending NE-SW, which cuts the northern and northeastern arms due to the rotational movement of the thrust fault with the Philippine Plate to the west.
哈尔马赫拉岛是印度-澳大利亚板块、摩鹿加海板块和菲律宾板块相互作用的结果,由此产生了许多活跃的地质结构,在岛屿周围容易发生地震活动。这种地质结构的复杂性使得哈尔马赫拉岛非常值得研究。本研究旨在通过整合遥感和重力卫星数据来确定地质结构。使用遥感方法对地表线状结构进行分析是基于哨兵-1A 图像数据。重力法利用 GGMPlus 卫星数据来明确地表无法清晰绘制的地质结构的连续性。重力数据的线状分析使用了快速西格玛边缘检测(FSED)和欧拉解卷积等技术。基于遥感和重力卫星数据整合的线状解释结果表明,东北-西南结构控制着哈尔马海拉岛的北臂和东北臂。相比之下,南臂则由西北-东南结构控制。欧拉深度估算显示,哈尔马海拉岛地区拥有不同深度的地质结构。深层结构达 4 千米,浅层结构最深达 2 千米。地震次中心数据加强了对这一地质结构的解释。这项综合研究表明,重力和遥感技术在描述该地区的总体结构框架方面具有很好的相关性。新发现是哈尔马赫拉臂北部有一个东北-西南走向的地质结构,这可能是由两种不同的构造造成的:第一,摩鹿加海板块与西部的哈尔马赫拉板块发生俯冲。其次,由于推力断层与西侧菲律宾板块的旋转运动,北臂和东北臂被切割成东北-西南走向的走向滑动运动。
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引用次数: 0
Quantitative assessment of Permian limestone geosites in the Sai Yok District, Kanchanaburi Province, Western Thailand 泰国西部甘差那武里府赛育地区二叠纪石灰岩地貌的定量评估
IF 1.5 Q2 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-25 DOI: 10.15625/2615-9783/20009
Thunyapat Sattraburut
Kanchanaburi Province in western Thailand is recognized as an exceptional natural tourist destination, offering many historical attractions and recreational activities. The Sai Yok District, located within Kanchanaburi Province, is characterized by distinctive geological and geomorphological features, hosting numerous remarkable geosites and geomorphosites, including waterfalls, caves, lapiés, and scenic karst topography. These features make it an exceptional location for geotourism. Inventory and quantitative assessments were conducted on seven Permian limestone geosites, namely Mueang Sing Historical Park, Tham Krasae, Tham Lawa, Tham Dao Wadung, Nam Tok Sai Yok Noi, Nam Tok Sai Yok Yai, and Hellfire Pass. The quantitative assessment process involved evaluating the scientific value and determining the level of deterioration of the geosites. Overall, these geosites were classified as having medium scientific value, with Mueang Sing Historical Park having the highest total score, while Tham Krasae had the lowest. Six of the seven geosites are classified as having a medium risk of deterioration, except Tham Dao Wadung, which has a low risk. The assessment of the total geosite value reveals that Mueang Sing Historical Park and Tham Dao Wadung possess a positive overall geosite value. At the same time, the other five have a negative value. It is important to note that because six of these seven geosites are classified as having a medium risk of deterioration, there is a need for increased attention and protection.
泰国西部的尖竹汶府(Kanchanaburi)是公认的天然旅游胜地,拥有众多历史景点和休闲活动。位于尖竹汶府的赛育区具有独特的地质和地貌特征,拥有众多引人注目的地质遗迹和地貌景观,包括瀑布、洞穴、青石板和风景优美的喀斯特地貌。这些特征使其成为地质旅游的绝佳地点。对七个二叠纪石灰岩地貌进行了清查和定量评估,即 Mueang Sing 历史公园、Tham Krasae、Tham Lawa、Tham Dao Wadung、Nam Tok Sai Yok Noi、Nam Tok Sai Yok Yai 和 Hellfire Pass。定量评估过程包括评估科学价值和确定地质遗迹的退化程度。总体而言,这些地质遗迹被归类为具有中等科学价值,其中 Mueang Sing 历史公园的总分最高,而 Tham Krasae 的总分最低。除 Tham Dao Wadung 的退化风险较低外,其他 7 个地质遗迹中有 6 个被列为具有中等退化风险。对地质遗迹总价值的评估显示,Mueang Sing 历史公园和 Tham Dao Wadung 的地质遗迹总价值为正值。与此同时,其他五个地质遗迹的价值为负值。值得注意的是,由于这七处地质遗迹中有六处被归类为具有中度退化风险,因此有必要加强关注和保护。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of different ENSO positions and Indian Ocean Dipole events on Indonesian rainfall 厄尔尼诺/南方涛动的不同位置和印度洋偶极子事件对印度尼西亚降雨的影响
IF 1.5 Q2 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-15 DOI: 10.15625/2615-9783/19926
Ahmad Zul Amal Zaini, M. Vonnisa, M. Marzuki
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are widely recognized as the leading modes of climate variability in the tropics. This paper investigates the impact of different ENSO positions and IOD events on Indonesian rainfall during the period 1950–2021. The ENSO position is determined by the largest value of four Niño indices: Niño 1+2, Niño 3, Niño 3.4, and Niño 4. These ENSO positions are hereafter referred to as  El-Niño/La-Niña 1+2, El-Niño/La-Niña 3, El-Niño/La-Niña 3.4, and El-Niño/La-Niña 4, respectively. The Dipole Mode Index (DMI) was used to observe IOD events. Different ENSO positions and IOD events result in different responses to Indonesian rainfall, obtained from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-5 data. The most significant decrease in rainfall occurs during the June-to-Septempber (JJAS) season of El-Niño 3. Conversely, during El-Niño 3.4, rainfall increases in the Sumatra and part of Kalimantan regions. The most significant increase in rainfall occurs during La-Niña 3.4, followed by La-Niña 4, La-Niña 3, and La-Niña 1+2. During a positive IOD phase, the southern part of western Indonesia experiences a decrease in precipitation of more than 30%. A more significant decrease in rainfall (>40%) occurs when a positive IOD co-occurs with El-Niño. During a negative IOD phase, Indonesia's rainfall patterns become more spatially variable. An increase in rainfall is more pronounced when a negative IOD co-occurs with La-Niña. The difference in Indonesian rainfall during different ENSO positions and IOD phases is related to differences in atmosphere-ocean interaction during each condition.
厄尔尼诺南方涛动(ENSO)和印度洋偶极子(IOD)被公认为热带地区气候变异的主要模式。本文研究了 1950-2021 年间不同厄尔尼诺/南方涛动位置和印度洋偶极子事件对印度尼西亚降雨量的影响。厄尔尼诺/南方涛动位置由四个尼诺指数的最大值决定:这些 ENSO 位置以下分别称为厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜 1+2、厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜 3、厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜 3.4 和厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜 4。偶极模式指数(DMI)用于观测 IOD 事件。根据欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)ERA-5 数据,不同的厄尔尼诺/南方涛动位置和 IOD 事件导致印度尼西亚降雨量的不同反应。在厄尔尼诺现象 3 的 6 月至 9 月(JJAS)季节,降雨量减少最为明显。相反,在厄尔尼诺 3.4 期间,苏门答腊和加里曼丹部分地区的降雨量增加。拉尼娜 3.4 期间降雨量增加最明显,其次是拉尼娜 4、拉尼娜 3 和拉尼娜 1+2。在正 IOD 阶段,印度尼西亚西部南部的降水量减少了 30% 以上。当正向 IOD 与厄尔尼诺同时出现时,降水量会有更大幅度的减少(>40%)。在负IOD阶段,印度尼西亚的降雨模式在空间上变得更加多变。当负IOD与拉尼娜同时出现时,降雨量的增加更为明显。在不同的厄尔尼诺/南方涛动位置和 IOD 阶段,印度尼西亚降雨量的差异与每种情况下大气-海洋相互作用的差异有关。
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