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SCENARIO MODELING OF FRONTIER FINANCIAL MARKET DEVELOPMENT 前沿金融市场发展的情景建模
O. Liubkina, N. Kovtun, Mariya Knir, L. Anisimova
Purpose – Hypothesis verification and quantification of the relationship between drivers and the resulting factors for a lasting impact on the long-term ICT development, globalization, structural changes in the geo-economy and changes in socio-ethical standards in society in the frontier financial markets.Research methodology – Based on open source information, a database of almost 19,000 data was formed - 748 obser-vations by country on 25 indicators. The simulation was performed on the basis of a mixed-model, which is a statistical model that is an extended version of the General Linear Model (GLM), using SAS / STAT® 13.1 software.Findings – Based on the Solution for Fixed Effects and Solution for Random Effects and the test of fixed effects, glo-balization, economic dominance, economic growth and human development were identified as statistically significant patterns of transformation of frontier financial markets.Research limitations – The paper does not attempt a comprehensive coverage of the topic. However, it identifies main drivers of the development of frontier financial markets and makes calls for further research.Practical implications – The findings are likely to be useful for practitioners and researchers to gain knowledge about the main drivers of the frontier financial markets development.Originality/Value – The application of the technique of multidimensional ranking of drivers has identified globalization, geoeconomic changes and human development as the most influential drivers for the development of frontier financial markets.
目的-假设验证和量化对长期ICT发展、全球化、地缘经济结构变化和前沿金融市场社会社会道德标准变化产生持久影响的驱动因素和由此产生的因素之间的关系。研究方法-基于开源信息,形成了一个包含近19,000个数据的数据库-各国对25个指标的748项观察结果。模拟是在混合模型的基础上进行的,混合模型是一种统计模型,是一般线性模型(GLM)的扩展版本,使用SAS / STAT®13.1软件。研究结果-基于固定效应和随机效应的解决方案和固定效应的检验,全球化,经济主导地位,经济增长和人类发展被确定为前沿金融市场转型的统计显著模式。研究局限性-本文不试图全面覆盖的主题。然而,它指出了前沿金融市场发展的主要驱动因素,并呼吁进一步研究。实际意义-研究结果可能有助于从业者和研究人员了解前沿金融市场发展的主要驱动因素。原创性/价值-运用多维驱动因素排名技术,确定全球化、地缘经济变化和人类发展是前沿金融市场发展最具影响力的驱动因素。
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引用次数: 0
INVESTIGATION OF THE HERDING AND CONTRARIAN BEHAVIOUR OF INVESTORS 调查投资者的羊群行为和逆向行为
Nijolė Maknickienė, Jovita Masėnaitė, Viktorija Stasytytė, Raimonda Martinkutė-Kaulienė
Purpose – The paper analyses two different paradigms of investor behaviour that exist in the financial mar-ket – the herding and contrarian behaviour. The main objective of the paper is to determine which pattern of investor behaviour better reflects the real changes in the prices of financial instruments in the financial markets.Research methodology – Algorithms of technical analysis, deep learning and classification of sentiments were used for the research; data of positions held by investors were analysed. Data mining was performed using “Tweet Sentiment Visualization” tool.Findings – The performed analysis of investor behaviour has revealed that it is more useful to ground financial decisions on the opinion of the investors contradicting the majority. The analysis of the data on the positions held by investors helped to make sure that the herding behaviour could have a negative impact on investment results, as the opinion of the majority of investors is less in line with changes in the prices of financial instruments in the market.Research limitations – The study was conducted using a limited number of investment instruments. In the future, more investment instruments can be analysed and additional forecasting methods, as well as more records in social networks can be used.Practical implications – Identifying which paradigm of investor behaviour is more beneficial to rely on can offer ap-propriate practical guidance for investors in order to invest more effectively in financial markets. Investors could use investor sentiment data to make practical investment decisions. All the methods used complement each other and can be combined into one investment decision strategy.Originality/Value – The study compared the ratio of open positions not only with real price changes but also with data obtained from the known technical analysis, deep learning and sentiment classification algorithms, which has not been done in previous studies. The applied methods allowed to achieve reliable and original results.
目的:本文分析了金融市场上存在的两种不同的投资者行为范式——羊群行为和逆向行为。本文的主要目的是确定哪种投资者行为模式能更好地反映金融市场中金融工具价格的真实变化。研究方法-技术分析、深度学习和情感分类算法被用于研究;对投资者持仓数据进行分析。数据挖掘使用“tweets Sentiment Visualization”工具进行。调查结果-对投资者行为进行的分析显示,根据与大多数人意见相左的投资者的意见作出财务决策更有用。对投资者持仓数据的分析有助于确保羊群行为可能对投资结果产生负面影响,因为大多数投资者的意见与市场上金融工具价格的变化不太一致。研究局限性-本研究使用有限数量的投资工具进行。在未来,可以分析更多的投资工具和更多的预测方法,也可以使用更多的社交网络记录。实际影响-确定哪一种投资者行为模式更有利于依赖,可以为投资者提供适当的实际指导,以便更有效地在金融市场进行投资。投资者可以利用投资者情绪数据做出实际的投资决策。所使用的所有方法都是互补的,可以组合成一个投资决策策略。原创性/价值-该研究不仅将未平仓头寸的比例与实际价格变化进行了比较,还将从已知的技术分析、深度学习和情绪分类算法中获得的数据进行了比较,这在以前的研究中是没有做过的。所采用的方法可以获得可靠和原始的结果。
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引用次数: 0
THE ROLE OF FINANCIAL SUPPORT FOR THE PERFORMANCE AND SURVIVAL OF MICRO-ENTERPRISES 金融支持对微型企业业绩和生存的作用
Ilona Beizitere, B. Sloka, Ieva Brence
Purpose – to examine the Latvian micro-enterprises having indicated the external financing as an importantfactor for their development.Research methodology – the results of the ad hoc survey (WAPI) on companies registered in Latvia in nationally definedsectors are used. Valid responses were received from 2.511 companies, of which 1.879 were micro-enterprises,the results were processed by using the SPSS programme.Findings – micro-enterprises that have not received the necessary external financing in previous years were less sustainablein the later period. Of the liquidated micro-enterprises examined, 16% were closed in 2020.Research limitations – the study highlights the impact of the availability of finance factor on the survival of micro-enterprises.Practical implications – the findings are useful for business support policy makers to identify preventative measures toensure the resilience of micro-enterprises in times of economic turmoil when the spread of the Covid-19 has affectedeconomy.Originality/Value – although scientific research on the need for financial support for companies has already been conductedin recent years, our study emphasizes the importance of access to finance for micro-enterprises.
目的-审查拉脱维亚微型企业,这些企业指出外部融资是其发展的一个重要因素。研究方法-使用了对在拉脱维亚注册的国家定义行业的公司进行的特别调查(WAPI)的结果。收到有效回复2511家企业,其中微型企业1879家,使用SPSS程序对结果进行处理。调查结果-前几年未获得必要外部融资的微型企业在后期的可持续性较差。在被审查的清算微型企业中,有16%在2020年关闭。研究的局限性——本研究突出了融资因素的可获得性对微型企业生存的影响。实际意义:研究结果有助于企业支持政策制定者确定预防措施,以确保微型企业在新冠疫情蔓延影响经济的经济动荡时期具有抵御能力。原创性/价值——尽管近年来已经开展了关于企业融资需求的科学研究,但我们的研究强调了微型企业获得融资的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
CHANGING ROLE OF PENSION FUNDS AND INSURANCE COMPANIES AS SOURCES OF HOUSEHOLD WELL-BEING IN THE LONG TERM: THE EXAMPLE OF THE COUNTRIES OF THE FORMER SOVIET UNION 养老基金和保险公司作为长期家庭福利来源的角色变化:前苏联国家的例子
Andrei A. Brylev, Anastasia N. Mitrofanova, Victoria A. Khoteeva
Purpose – the main objective of this study is to assess the impact of investments in pension and insuranceschemes on household well-being, based on an analysis of data from the countries of the former Soviet Union in thelong term.Research methodology – using empirical analysis, the assets and liabilities of households are examined, divided intothe main financial market instruments in the selected countries.Findings – the calculations confirmed the relationship between total household assets and assets held in life insurancereserves and pension schemes.Research limitations – the choice of the countries is determined by the similarity of the economies and the politicaland social systems. Also, the choice of countries is due to the lack of data, so the number of countries studied wasreduced to 6.Practical implications – the results of this study will be useful for national governments and major institutional investors.Originality/Value – although similar studies were conducted on the basis of data from OECD countries, a comparablecross-country analysis was not conducted on the data of the countries of the former Soviet Union. Further, on the basisof the obtained data, it is planned to conduct a correlation and regression analysis to identify the statistical relationship.
目的-本研究的主要目的是根据对前苏联各国长期数据的分析,评估养恤金和保险计划的投资对家庭福利的影响。研究方法-使用实证分析,家庭的资产和负债进行检查,分为主要的金融市场工具在选定的国家。调查结果-计算证实了家庭总资产与人寿保险储备和养老金计划持有的资产之间的关系。研究的局限性——国家的选择是由经济、政治和社会制度的相似性决定的。此外,国家的选择是由于缺乏数据,所以研究的国家数量减少到6个。实际意义-本研究的结果将对各国政府和主要机构投资者有用。独创性/价值- -虽然根据经合发组织国家的数据进行了类似的研究,但没有对前苏联国家的数据进行可比的跨国分析。进一步,在获得数据的基础上,计划进行相关和回归分析,以确定统计关系。
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引用次数: 0
A STUDY ON SOCIAL MEDIA OPINION ABOUT WOMEN INVESTORS 社交媒体对女性投资者看法的研究
Nijolė Maknickienė, Lina Rapkevičiūtė
Purpose – to investigate opinions on social networks about women’s investment and its determinants. Social network sentiment research aims to find out why investing remains a very masculine area of life.Research methodology – Twitter social network analysis tools will be used for data mining. Word clouds and sentiment index will be obtained using neural network classification algorithm based on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM).Findings – the paper obtained the dynamics of three-week opinions on the social network Twitter, considering the main factors that influence women’s choice to invest.Research limitations – only the main factors were investigated and only based on a survey of other authors. Data were extracted from the social network for a limited time.Practical implications – traditionally, investing has remained an area dominated by men. However, women are be-coming increasingly financially independent and increasingly involved in the investment process. Therefore, it is very important to analyze the factors that hinder the achievement of investment results.Originality/Value – there are many scientific papers that examine the factors that determine women’s investment choices. However, opinions and sentiments on social networks have not been explored.
目的:调查社交网络上关于女性投资的意见及其决定因素。社交网络情绪研究旨在找出为什么投资仍然是一个非常男性化的生活领域。研究方法——Twitter社交网络分析工具将用于数据挖掘。使用基于长短期记忆(LSTM)的神经网络分类算法获得词云和情绪指数。研究结果——该论文获得了社交网络Twitter上三周的动态意见,考虑了影响女性投资选择的主要因素。研究局限——只调查了主要因素,而且只基于对其他作者的调查。数据是在有限的时间内从社交网络中提取的。实际意义——传统上,投资一直是男性主导的领域。然而,妇女在经济上越来越独立,越来越多地参与投资过程。因此,分析阻碍投资成果实现的因素是非常重要的。原创性/价值——有许多科学论文研究了决定女性投资选择的因素。然而,社交网络上的观点和情绪尚未被探索。
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引用次数: 0
PERFORMANCE PROCESS AND CONTEMPORARY PRACTICES IN MOROCCAN LOCAL AUTHORITIES: CASE STUDY OF URBAN MUNICIPALITY 摩洛哥地方当局的绩效过程和当代做法:城市市政当局的案例研究
Nouha Amrani, Ilona Skačkauskienė, Mohamed Hemmi
Purpose – the aim of this paper is to shed light on a contemporary issue related to performance practices and approaches in Local Authotities (LA) while studying the case of an urban municipality. Research methodology – the methodology applied is a documentary analysis of the Municipal Action Plan (MAP) and semi-directive interviews with territorial executives and elected officials who contributed to the MAP’s elaboration.Findings – the results obtained show that the municipality adopts a developed performance approach similar to what has been applied in public institution according to the organic law of Finance (LOLF).Rresearch limitations – the results cannot be generalized because of choosing a single case study. In addition, some questions in the interview contain technical words that the interviewee does not master, which also risks biasing our results.Practical implications – on the theoretical level, these results can be the starting point for future research in such issues. On the practical level, the results obtained sensitize territorial responsible about the importance of performance approach and inspire them to implement it.Originality/Value – this study in among the rarer that attempted to understand the process of performance approach in LA, especially in Moroccan context, where most research tends to deal with problems related to the budget and financial aspect which reflects originality and novelty.
目的-本文的目的是在研究城市市政当局的案例时,阐明与地方当局(LA)的绩效实践和方法相关的当代问题。研究方法-采用的方法是对市政行动计划(MAP)进行文献分析,并对参与制定MAP的地区行政人员和民选官员进行半指导性访谈。研究结果-获得的结果表明,市政当局采用了一种类似于根据财政组织法(LOLF)在公共机构中应用的发达绩效方法。研究的局限性——由于选择了单一的案例研究,结果不能一概而论。此外,访谈中的一些问题包含了受访者不掌握的专业词汇,这也有可能使我们的结果产生偏差。实践意义-在理论层面上,这些结果可以成为未来此类问题研究的起点。在实践层面,所得结果使区域责任人认识到绩效方法的重要性,并激励他们实施绩效方法。原创性/价值——本研究是少数试图了解洛杉矶绩效方法过程的研究之一,特别是在摩洛哥的背景下,大多数研究倾向于处理与反映原创性和新颖性的预算和财务方面相关的问题。
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引用次数: 0
SERVICE MODULARISATION COMPATIBILITY TO ORGANISATIONAL OBJECTIVES 服务模块化与组织目标的兼容性
Ilona Skačkauskienė, Jurga Vestertė
Purpose – the article aims to explore how service modularisation objectives are compatible with organisa-tional objectives. Research methodology – the paper is a part of continuous research. It takes a conceptual approach and integrates rele-vant literature to develop a framework on the potential avenues to create a decision-support tool that assists in service modularity planning. The research proceeds with evidence from the peer-reviewed literature. The relevant literature was identified through “pearl growing” and citation chasing techniques using the assembled body of topic literature from authors’ previous research and employing the related keywords for filtering.Findings – the previous literature is silent on establishing objectives for service modularisation with the consideration of what a provider will achieve by engaging in this. The paper addresses this gap and discovers how antecedents of service modularisation transform into organisational objectives.Research limitations – although bibliographic research methods are limited, they enable the analysis and identification of structure within the research. Such analysis has implications by suggesting future directions in investigating how modularity approach can be used in the service context and how it can be applied in practice more actively.Practical implications – the findings provide potentially vital information to service organisation managers and allow better understand how service modularisation would benefit performance results in gaining service competitiveness.Originality/Value – the study contributes to the discourse on service modularity planning and provides a basis for comprehension of service modularisation merit when pursuing competitiveness.
目的——本文旨在探讨服务模块化目标如何与组织目标兼容。研究方法——本文是连续研究的一部分。它采用了一种概念性的方法,并集成了相关文献,以开发一个基于潜在途径的框架,从而创建一个有助于服务模块化规划的决策支持工具。这项研究从同行评议的文献中获得证据。利用作者前期研究的主题文献集合体,并采用相关关键词进行过滤,通过“珍珠生长”和引文追踪技术进行相关文献的识别。研究结果——之前的文献没有提及服务模块化的目标,也没有考虑供应商通过参与服务模块化将实现什么目标。本文解决了这一差距,并发现了服务模块化的先决条件如何转化为组织目标。研究局限性-虽然书目研究方法是有限的,但它们可以分析和确定研究中的结构。这样的分析暗示了研究模块化方法如何在服务上下文中使用以及如何在实践中更积极地应用的未来方向。实际意义-研究结果为服务组织管理者提供了潜在的重要信息,并使他们更好地理解服务模块化如何在获得服务竞争力的过程中提高绩效。原创性/价值-本研究有助于服务模块化规划的论述,并为在追求竞争力时理解服务模块化的优点提供了基础。
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引用次数: 2
MODEL FOR SOCIAL MARKETING IMPACT ON CONSUMERS HEALTHY LIFESTYLE CHOICE 社会营销模式对消费者健康生活方式选择的影响
Justė Statnickaitė, Monika Paulė
Purpose – the purpose of this article is to present the novel model developed to measure social marketing impact on consumers choice for healthy lifestyle. Social marketing is very complex by aiming to promote socially responsible products and behavior for the benefit of the consumer and society at the same time. What is more, con-sumers choice for healthy lifestyle is determined not only by marketing influence but other personality and external environment factors as well. Research methodology – the model presented in the article was developed based on literature analysis and secondary data. Findings – social marketing impact on consumers choice for healthy lifestyle is determined not only by the social mar-keting, but also the consumer personality itself and the influence of the external environment on consumer. Research limitations – validation of the novel developed model dedicated for the measurement of social marketing impact on consumers choice for healthy lifestyle should be further validated with quantitative research methods. Practical implications – the application of the model will enable marketing specialists to determine the contents and other situational details of social marketing for consumers to choose healthy lifestyle and products related to it. Originality/Value – the value of the model is determined by its novel attitude to social marketing in parallel with other factors affecting consumer behaviour.
目的-本文的目的是提出一种新的模型来衡量社会营销对消费者选择健康生活方式的影响。社会营销是非常复杂的,旨在促进对社会负责的产品和行为,同时为消费者和社会的利益。此外,消费者对健康生活方式的选择除了受到市场营销的影响外,还受到其他个性和外部环境因素的影响。研究方法-本文提出的模型是基于文献分析和二手数据开发的。研究发现——社会营销对消费者健康生活方式选择的影响不仅取决于社会营销,还取决于消费者个性本身以及外部环境对消费者的影响。研究的局限性-验证新开发的模型,致力于衡量社会营销对消费者选择健康生活方式的影响,应进一步验证定量研究方法。实际意义-该模型的应用将使营销专家能够确定社会营销的内容和其他情境细节,以供消费者选择健康的生活方式和与之相关的产品。原创性/价值-该模式的价值是由其对社会营销的新颖态度以及影响消费者行为的其他因素决定的。
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引用次数: 0
OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GREEN ORGANISATION IN THE CONTEXT OF NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL STRATEGIC DOCUMENTS AND INICIATIVES 在国家和国际战略文件和倡议的背景下,绿色组织发展的机遇
Ilona Skačkauskienė, J. Smirnova
The article emphasizes the aspects of organisational development in the context of green organisation, de-scribing the importance of changes in an external environment for the development of the organisation. Purpose – the purpose of the article is to analyse the relevance of green organisation development at the national and international levels by examining it through the prism of strategic documents and initiatives. In order to determine the development directions of the green organisation on the basis of strategic documents and initiatives.Research methodology – the methods of critical analysis of scientific literature, strategic documents, initiatives and synthesis as well as abstrahation have been applied. Findings – main findings of the research proved that development of green organisation is relevant in the context of key international and national strategic documents. Also the definition of the development of green organisations is proposed by authors. The analysis of strategic documents and initiatives at the national and international levels has shown that their impact on the development of a green organisation can be both direct and indirect.Research limitations – the limitation of this reseach is that mainly key international and national strategic documents were analyzed. Analysis of other strategic documents can be stated as a direction for future research.Practical implications – the results of the research could be used as a basis for the promotion of the development of green organisations at the national and international level both directly and indirectly.Originality/Value – the originality of this research can be defined by complex approach to analysis related to the impact of actual legal regulation to the development of green organisations.
文章强调了绿色组织背景下组织发展的各个方面,描述了外部环境变化对组织发展的重要性。目的-这篇文章的目的是分析绿色组织发展在国家和国际层面的相关性,通过战略文件和举措的棱镜来审视它。为了在战略文件和倡议的基础上确定绿色组织的发展方向。研究方法-科学文献,战略文件,倡议和综合以及抽象的批判性分析方法已被应用。研究结果-研究的主要结果证明,绿色组织的发展是相关的背景下,关键的国际和国家战略文件。作者还对绿色组织的发展进行了界定。对国家和国际层面的战略文件和倡议的分析表明,它们对绿色组织发展的影响可以是直接的,也可以是间接的。研究局限——本研究的局限在于主要分析的是国际和国家的关键战略文件。对其他战略文件的分析可以作为未来研究的一个方向。实际意义——研究的结果可以直接或间接地作为在国家和国际层面促进绿色组织发展的基础。原创性/价值-本研究的原创性可以通过复杂的方法来定义,以分析实际法律法规对绿色组织发展的影响。
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引用次数: 1
TOWARDS NEW TYPOLOGY OF THE OWNERS-MANAGERS OF THE SMALL AND MEDIUM ENTERPRISES 走向中小企业业主管理者的新类型
M. Millers, E. Gaile-Sarkane
Purpose – individuals or families own and at the same time manage a large proportion of private enterprises. Previous studies mostly refer to owner-manager of the enterprise as an individual with own personal traits, styles and preferences. Purpose of this article is to propose a new typology of the owners-managers of the small and medium en-terprises representing all variety, determined by their different ownership status and managerial authorities in companies.Research methodology – research started with a systematic rapid literature review using an overview method. Data for research were collected through 52 semi-structured interviews with SME owner-managers representing broad range of industries and companies of different age. Key findings were discussed and approbated in two focus group discussions. Findings – as a result of this research, a preliminary typology was developed, consisting of ten types of the SME own-ers-managers, with a brief description of each type constructed. Research limitations – conclusions from this research are relevant to those SMEs analysed in this particular research and shall not be generalized without additional research and validation. Practical implications – the typology suggested in this article provides a structured way to explore the diversity of SME owners-managers and raise understanding of their behaviour when planning, controlling and managing their business.Originality/Value – the proposed typology is a step towards filling the knowledge gap caused by the lack of a holistic and systematic approach in addressing the diversity of the SME owners-managers.
目的-个人或家庭拥有并同时管理很大比例的私营企业。以往的研究大多将企业的所有者-经理视为具有自己的个人特征、风格和偏好的个体。本文的目的是提出一种新的中小企业所有者-管理者的类型,代表着各种各样的企业,由他们在公司中的不同所有权地位和管理权限决定。研究方法-研究开始于系统的快速文献综述,采用概述法。研究数据是通过52个半结构化访谈收集的,访谈对象是中小企业业主经理,他们代表了广泛的行业和不同年龄的公司。在两次焦点小组讨论中讨论并批准了主要调查结果。研究结果-作为这项研究的结果,开发了一个初步的类型学,包括十种类型的中小企业所有者-管理者,并对每种类型进行了简要描述。研究局限性-本研究的结论与本特定研究中分析的中小企业相关,未经进一步研究和验证不得推广。实际意义-本文中提出的类型提供了一种结构化的方法来探索中小企业所有者-管理者的多样性,并提高对他们在计划、控制和管理业务时行为的理解。原创性/价值——提出的类型学是填补由于缺乏解决中小企业所有者-管理者多样性的整体和系统方法而导致的知识差距的一步。
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引用次数: 2
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Selected papers of the International Scientific Conference “Contemporary Issues in Business, Management and Economics Engineering 2021”
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