Chulwoo Han, Hyeongmook Kang, Gamin Kim, Joseph Yi
Abstract In this article, we develop a bankruptcy prediction model for Korean firms that utilize logit regression. We find that not only financial accounting ratios but equity market inputs and macro-economic variables are also important predictors of bankruptcy. However, unlike the findings of Campbell et al. (2008), using market value of equity in computing total assets did not improve the model. We compare the model with a Merton-type structural model and find that our model demonstrates a higher prediction power in distinguishing distressed firms from healthy firms. Though our model proves to perform better, we are careful to make a conclusion and rather suggest using several models for the purpose of risk management to reduce model risk.
摘要本文利用logistic回归建立了韩国企业破产预测模型。研究发现，除了财务会计比率外，股票市场投入和宏观经济变量也是企业破产的重要预测因素。然而，与Campbell et al.(2008)的研究结果不同，在计算总资产时使用权益的市场价值并没有改进模型。我们将该模型与默顿型结构模型进行比较，发现我们的模型在区分困境企业和健康企业方面表现出更高的预测能力。虽然我们的模型被证明表现得更好，但我们谨慎地做出结论，而是建议使用几个模型进行风险管理，以降低模型风险。
{"title":"Logit Regression Based Bankruptcy Prediction of Korean Firms","authors":"Chulwoo Han, Hyeongmook Kang, Gamin Kim, Joseph Yi","doi":"10.1515/2153-3792.1159","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/2153-3792.1159","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In this article, we develop a bankruptcy prediction model for Korean firms that utilize logit regression. We find that not only financial accounting ratios but equity market inputs and macro-economic variables are also important predictors of bankruptcy. However, unlike the findings of Campbell et al. (2008), using market value of equity in computing total assets did not improve the model. We compare the model with a Merton-type structural model and find that our model demonstrates a higher prediction power in distinguishing distressed firms from healthy firms. Though our model proves to perform better, we are careful to make a conclusion and rather suggest using several models for the purpose of risk management to reduce model risk.","PeriodicalId":244368,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance","volume":"75 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123865211","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Longevity risk and the modeling of trends and volatility for mortality improvement have attracted increased attention driven by ageing populations around the world and the expected financial implications. The original Lee-Carter model that was used for longevity risk assessment included a single improvement factor with differential impacts by age. Financial models that allow for risk pricing and risk management have attracted increasing attention along with multiple factor models. This paper investigates trends, including common trends through co-integration, and the factors driving the volatility of mortality using principal components analysis for a number of developed countries including Australia, England, Japan, Norway and USA. The results demonstrate the need for multiple factors for modeling mortality rates across all these countries. The basic structure of the Lee-Carter model cannot adequately model the random variation and the full risk structure of mortality changes. Trends by country are found to be stochastic. Common trends and co-integrating relationships are found across ages highlighting the benefits from modeling mortality rates as a system in a Vector-Autoregressive (VAR) model and capturing long run equilibrium relationships in a Vector Error-Correction Model (VECM) framework.
{"title":"Longevity Risk and the Econometric Analysis of Mortality Trends and Volatility","authors":"Carolyn Njenga, M. Sherris","doi":"10.2202/2153-3792.1115","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2202/2153-3792.1115","url":null,"abstract":"Longevity risk and the modeling of trends and volatility for mortality improvement have attracted increased attention driven by ageing populations around the world and the expected financial implications. The original Lee-Carter model that was used for longevity risk assessment included a single improvement factor with differential impacts by age. Financial models that allow for risk pricing and risk management have attracted increasing attention along with multiple factor models. This paper investigates trends, including common trends through co-integration, and the factors driving the volatility of mortality using principal components analysis for a number of developed countries including Australia, England, Japan, Norway and USA. The results demonstrate the need for multiple factors for modeling mortality rates across all these countries. The basic structure of the Lee-Carter model cannot adequately model the random variation and the full risk structure of mortality changes. Trends by country are found to be stochastic. Common trends and co-integrating relationships are found across ages highlighting the benefits from modeling mortality rates as a system in a Vector-Autoregressive (VAR) model and capturing long run equilibrium relationships in a Vector Error-Correction Model (VECM) framework.","PeriodicalId":244368,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance","volume":"63 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115807930","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The survival mixture model, which is an extension of the ordinary survival model that allows the existence of a fraction of the borrowers to be risk-free, is applied to credit risk analysis. In a regression setting, the effect of borrowers' characteristics on both the risk-free probability and default risk can be assessed simultaneously. Using the C statistic as a measure of accuracy, the survival mixture model shows improved power to discriminate between good' and bad' customers, when compared with other commonly used statistical models for credit risk analysis. A simulation study is conducted to assess the performance of the proposed numerical estimation method. The survival mixture model not only concentrates on the time-to-default of the borrowers, it also predicts the probability of being risk-free. It provides additional information about the borrowers' default risk in relation to their characteristics, which assists the lending institutions to better manage credit risk.
{"title":"Survival Mixture Model for Credit Risk Analysis","authors":"Leo S. F. Mo, Kelvin K. W. Yau","doi":"10.2202/2153-3792.1061","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2202/2153-3792.1061","url":null,"abstract":"The survival mixture model, which is an extension of the ordinary survival model that allows the existence of a fraction of the borrowers to be risk-free, is applied to credit risk analysis. In a regression setting, the effect of borrowers' characteristics on both the risk-free probability and default risk can be assessed simultaneously. Using the C statistic as a measure of accuracy, the survival mixture model shows improved power to discriminate between good' and bad' customers, when compared with other commonly used statistical models for credit risk analysis. A simulation study is conducted to assess the performance of the proposed numerical estimation method. The survival mixture model not only concentrates on the time-to-default of the borrowers, it also predicts the probability of being risk-free. It provides additional information about the borrowers' default risk in relation to their characteristics, which assists the lending institutions to better manage credit risk.","PeriodicalId":244368,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115167001","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper investigates the asymptotic behavior of tail probability of a randomly weighted sum of real-valued heavy-tailed dependent random variables; the weights form another sequence random variable. Under some other mild conditions, the asymptotic relations obtained are further applied to derive asymptotic estimate for ruin probabilities in a discrete time risk model.
{"title":"Asymptotic Tail Probability of Randomly Weighted Sum of Dependent Heavy-Tailed Random Variables","authors":"Yu Chen, Weiping Zhang, Jie Liu","doi":"10.2202/2153-3792.1055","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2202/2153-3792.1055","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the asymptotic behavior of tail probability of a randomly weighted sum of real-valued heavy-tailed dependent random variables; the weights form another sequence random variable. Under some other mild conditions, the asymptotic relations obtained are further applied to derive asymptotic estimate for ruin probabilities in a discrete time risk model.","PeriodicalId":244368,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130487393","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Vincent Y. Chang, Jennifer L. Wang, Larry Y. Tzeng
How do property liability insurance companies choose their organizational forms and distribution channels? Prior studies have not yet provided a consistent conclusion. In this paper, we propose a reduced form approach to reexamine the relationship between organizational forms and distribution channels in the insurance industry, using cross-sectional data pertaining to U.S. property liability insurance companies in 2004. We adopt a conditional dependence test, which can overcome the sensitivity problem of the structural form setting. The results show that after we control for all explanatory variables, the relationship between organizational forms and distribution channels is conditionally uncorrelated. The result is consistent with Regan and Tzeng (1999), but contradicts the findings of Baranoff and Sager (2003) and Kim et al. (1996).
财产责任保险公司如何选择组织形式和分销渠道?先前的研究尚未得出一致的结论。本文利用2004年美国财产责任保险公司的横截面数据，提出了一种简化形式的方法来重新审视保险业组织形式与分销渠道之间的关系。我们采用了条件依赖检验，克服了结构形式设置的敏感性问题。结果表明，在我们控制了所有解释变量之后，组织形式与分销渠道之间的关系是条件不相关的。这一结果与Regan and Tzeng(1999)一致，但与Baranoff and Sager(2003)和Kim et al.(1996)的发现相矛盾。
{"title":"A Reexamination of the Relationship between Organizational Forms and Distribution Channels in the U.S. Property Liability Insurance Industry","authors":"Vincent Y. Chang, Jennifer L. Wang, Larry Y. Tzeng","doi":"10.2202/2153-3792.1074","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2202/2153-3792.1074","url":null,"abstract":"How do property liability insurance companies choose their organizational forms and distribution channels? Prior studies have not yet provided a consistent conclusion. In this paper, we propose a reduced form approach to reexamine the relationship between organizational forms and distribution channels in the insurance industry, using cross-sectional data pertaining to U.S. property liability insurance companies in 2004. We adopt a conditional dependence test, which can overcome the sensitivity problem of the structural form setting. The results show that after we control for all explanatory variables, the relationship between organizational forms and distribution channels is conditionally uncorrelated. The result is consistent with Regan and Tzeng (1999), but contradicts the findings of Baranoff and Sager (2003) and Kim et al. (1996).","PeriodicalId":244368,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance","volume":"51 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128566587","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Using an actuarial model, we examine the cost of delay in mortgage/credit loan payments. It is assumed that the default arrival process follows the Poisson process and the loss sizes are assumed to be independent and an identical truncated exponential. We also assume that the delay between default occurrence and partially (or fully) recovered payment is an independent identical truncated exponential random variable. For the recovery rate random variable, we simply use its expectation. Using the relationship between the shot noise process and accumulated/discounted aggregate losses process and applying the piecewise deterministic Markov processes theory, we obtain the explicit expressions for the expected value of losses and the expected value of part (or whole) of the loan recovered with the delay. Based on these moments, we define and predict the cost of delay in a mortgage/credit loan portfolio and their numerical examples are provided.
{"title":"The Cost of Delay in a Mortgage/Credit Loan Portfolio","authors":"Jiwook Jang","doi":"10.2202/2153-3792.1048","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2202/2153-3792.1048","url":null,"abstract":"Using an actuarial model, we examine the cost of delay in mortgage/credit loan payments. It is assumed that the default arrival process follows the Poisson process and the loss sizes are assumed to be independent and an identical truncated exponential. We also assume that the delay between default occurrence and partially (or fully) recovered payment is an independent identical truncated exponential random variable. For the recovery rate random variable, we simply use its expectation. Using the relationship between the shot noise process and accumulated/discounted aggregate losses process and applying the piecewise deterministic Markov processes theory, we obtain the explicit expressions for the expected value of losses and the expected value of part (or whole) of the loan recovered with the delay. Based on these moments, we define and predict the cost of delay in a mortgage/credit loan portfolio and their numerical examples are provided.","PeriodicalId":244368,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116509035","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This paper examines the firm-specific factors determining the use of derivatives by the sample of Japanese life and non-life Japanese insurance companies during the period of 2001–2011. We find that the participation rate for the use of derivatives by insurance companies in Japan is 73.2%, much higher than those found in the US, the UK, or Australia. Using the Probit and Tobit regression models, we provide evidence that the decision to use derivatives of Japanese insurance companies is positively related to firm size, leverage, organizational form, and proportion of assets invested in stocks and bonds, but negatively associated with reinsurance dependence. We also find that the decision of Japanese insurance companies to extend their markets by operating globally increases the need for derivatives contracts.
{"title":"The Determinants of the Use of Derivatives in the Japanese Insurance Companies","authors":"I. W. N. Lantara, Atsushi Takao","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1494834","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1494834","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper examines the firm-specific factors determining the use of derivatives by the sample of Japanese life and non-life Japanese insurance companies during the period of 2001–2011. We find that the participation rate for the use of derivatives by insurance companies in Japan is 73.2%, much higher than those found in the US, the UK, or Australia. Using the Probit and Tobit regression models, we provide evidence that the decision to use derivatives of Japanese insurance companies is positively related to firm size, leverage, organizational form, and proportion of assets invested in stocks and bonds, but negatively associated with reinsurance dependence. We also find that the decision of Japanese insurance companies to extend their markets by operating globally increases the need for derivatives contracts.","PeriodicalId":244368,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129593665","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We present surrender rate models with explanatory variables such as the difference between reference rates and crediting rates, policy age since issue, unemployment rates, and economy growth rates, using a logit model. We calculate the values of the surrender options in Korean interest-indexed annuities. It is interesting to note that the values of the surrender options subject to a surrender charge show negative values despite the fact that the surrender options are the right given to policyholders. We then attempt to find the fair surrender charges for the insurance company and its policyholders.
{"title":"Valuing Surrender Options in Korean Interest Indexed Annuities","authors":"Changki Kim","doi":"10.2202/2153-3792.1039","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2202/2153-3792.1039","url":null,"abstract":"We present surrender rate models with explanatory variables such as the difference between reference rates and crediting rates, policy age since issue, unemployment rates, and economy growth rates, using a logit model. We calculate the values of the surrender options in Korean interest-indexed annuities. It is interesting to note that the values of the surrender options subject to a surrender charge show negative values despite the fact that the surrender options are the right given to policyholders. We then attempt to find the fair surrender charges for the insurance company and its policyholders.","PeriodicalId":244368,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123908078","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper, we present alternative pricing models of deposit insurance under capital forbearance. The investment behavior of deposit insurance companies and moral hazard of banks are considered and numerical analysis is carried out. We find that If the premium rate reflects forecasting instead of merely assessing the liability in determining premium rate, and considering the effect of the relationship between deposits interest rate and insolvency risk of banks, this can help decrease this moral hazard created after the issuance of the insurance contract.
{"title":"Alternative Pricing Models of Deposit Insurance under Capital Forbearance","authors":"Hong Mao, Krzysztof Ostaszewski","doi":"10.2202/2153-3792.1041","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2202/2153-3792.1041","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we present alternative pricing models of deposit insurance under capital forbearance. The investment behavior of deposit insurance companies and moral hazard of banks are considered and numerical analysis is carried out. We find that If the premium rate reflects forecasting instead of merely assessing the liability in determining premium rate, and considering the effect of the relationship between deposits interest rate and insolvency risk of banks, this can help decrease this moral hazard created after the issuance of the insurance contract.","PeriodicalId":244368,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance","volume":"63 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133863510","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Guy D. Coughlan, D. Epstein, M. Khalaf-Allah, C. Watts
Longevity risk transfer via the capital markets is now a reality. Pension plans and annuity providers can hedge longevity risk with capital markets instruments, reflecting the emergence of a new market that is poised to take off. The key players in this market are hedgers (pension plans and annuity providers), intermediaries (investment banks and broker-dealers) and end investors (ILS funds, hedge funds, endowments, etc.). We argue that the development of liquidity in this market depends on the acceptance of longevity indices and the development of standardized instruments to transfer this risk.Until now, hedgers of longevity risk have almost exclusively approached the subject from the perspective of indemnification (100 percent risk transfer). We propose an alternative approach based on a risk management paradigm that does not require 100 percent risk transfer and is consistent with the way in which other pension-related risks are managed. To this end we present a framework for longevity hedging cantered on standardized indexbased hedges. This framework uses a building-block approach in which standardized hedge building blocks are combined to provide a longevity hedge tailored to the specific demographics, benefit structure and mortality table of any pension plan. The effectiveness of this hedge is maximized by careful calibration of the mix of building blocks and then verified in hedge effectiveness tests.We also discuss customized longevity hedges that will be preferred by some hedgers, who are unconcerned by the lower liquidity and onerous requirements for data disclosure associated with these hedges, and are prepared to pay the additional premium above the cost of a standardized hedge.
{"title":"Hedging Pension Longevity Risk: Practical Capital Markets Solutions","authors":"Guy D. Coughlan, D. Epstein, M. Khalaf-Allah, C. Watts","doi":"10.2202/2153-3792.1030","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2202/2153-3792.1030","url":null,"abstract":"Longevity risk transfer via the capital markets is now a reality. Pension plans and annuity providers can hedge longevity risk with capital markets instruments, reflecting the emergence of a new market that is poised to take off. The key players in this market are hedgers (pension plans and annuity providers), intermediaries (investment banks and broker-dealers) and end investors (ILS funds, hedge funds, endowments, etc.). We argue that the development of liquidity in this market depends on the acceptance of longevity indices and the development of standardized instruments to transfer this risk.Until now, hedgers of longevity risk have almost exclusively approached the subject from the perspective of indemnification (100 percent risk transfer). We propose an alternative approach based on a risk management paradigm that does not require 100 percent risk transfer and is consistent with the way in which other pension-related risks are managed. To this end we present a framework for longevity hedging cantered on standardized indexbased hedges. This framework uses a building-block approach in which standardized hedge building blocks are combined to provide a longevity hedge tailored to the specific demographics, benefit structure and mortality table of any pension plan. The effectiveness of this hedge is maximized by careful calibration of the mix of building blocks and then verified in hedge effectiveness tests.We also discuss customized longevity hedges that will be preferred by some hedgers, who are unconcerned by the lower liquidity and onerous requirements for data disclosure associated with these hedges, and are prepared to pay the additional premium above the cost of a standardized hedge.","PeriodicalId":244368,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125686442","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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