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Authoritarianism and the Evolution of West European Electoral Politics最新文献

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Cultural Backlash or Worldview Evolution? 文化反弹还是世界观进化?
Pub Date : 2021-07-22 DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780192896223.003.0008
Erik R. Tillman
This chapter examines the relationship between authoritarianism, age, and radical right party support. This book’s worldview evolution proposes that the relationship between authoritarianism and radical right party support should be stronger among younger voters. However, a rival cultural backlash argument suggests that the relationship should be strongest among older voters, who were socialized in an era of traditional values and less diversity. The analysis finds evidence consistent with the worldview evolution argument while leading to a rejection of the cultural backlash hypothesis. Neither older voters nor older high authoritarians are more likely to support radical right parties. However, the relationship between authoritarianism and radical right party support is stronger among younger voters in each country besides the United Kingdom. This finding suggests that the worldview evolution is driven more by younger voters with fewer prior party attachments, and it also should lead to a rejection of the claim that populist radical right party support comes mostly from ageing demographic groups who will soon be replaced in the electorate.
本章探讨威权主义、年龄和激进右翼政党支持之间的关系。这本书的世界观演变提出,威权主义和激进右翼政党的支持之间的关系应该在年轻选民中更加强烈。然而,另一种对立的文化反弹观点认为,这种关系应该在老年选民中最为强烈,他们是在传统价值观和多样性较少的时代被社会化的。分析发现了与世界观进化论点一致的证据,同时导致了对文化反弹假说的拒绝。无论是年长的选民还是年长的高级独裁者,都不太可能支持激进的右翼政党。然而,除了英国之外,各国的年轻选民对威权主义和激进右翼政党的支持之间的关系更为强烈。这一发现表明,世界观的演变更多地是由先前对政党依恋较少的年轻选民推动的,这也应该导致对民粹主义激进右翼政党的支持主要来自即将在选民中被取代的老龄化人口群体的说法的驳斥。
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引用次数: 0
Authoritarianism in West European Electorates 西欧选民中的威权主义
Pub Date : 2021-07-22 DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780192896223.003.0003
Erik R. Tillman
This chapter engages in a descriptive analysis of authoritarianism in Western Europe and its relationship to economic, social, and political attitudes. It considers the definition of authoritarianism and how it is distinct from related concepts such as conservatism. The descriptive analysis addresses several important questions. First, it examines the distribution of authoritarianism in West European societies, along with its relationship to education, age, and gender. Then, it examines the relationship between authoritarianism and socio-cultural, political, and economic attitudes. The analysis finds that authoritarianism is closely related to socio-cultural attitudes on matters such as acceptance of same-sex marriage, endorsement of traditional gender roles, immigration, and ethnocentrism. Authoritarianism also correlates with attitudes towards democracy and political trust. However, high authoritarians are not meaningfully different from low authoritarians on economic questions. These findings point to an important conclusion for this book’s argument. Because high authoritarians vary from low authoritarians most on socio-cultural attitudes, it is likely that the factors driving the worldview issue are socio-cultural rather than economic in nature.
本章对西欧的威权主义及其与经济、社会和政治态度的关系进行了描述性分析。它考虑了威权主义的定义以及它与保守主义等相关概念的区别。描述性分析解决了几个重要问题。首先,它考察了专制主义在西欧社会的分布,以及它与教育、年龄和性别的关系。然后,它考察了威权主义与社会文化、政治和经济态度之间的关系。分析发现,威权主义与社会文化态度密切相关,如对同性婚姻的接受、对传统性别角色的认可、移民和种族中心主义。威权主义还与对民主和政治信任的态度相关。然而,在经济问题上,高级权威主义者和低级权威主义者并没有什么意义上的区别。这些发现为本书的论点指出了一个重要的结论。因为高权威主义者和低权威主义者在社会文化态度上的差异最大,所以推动世界观问题的因素很可能是社会文化而不是经济。
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引用次数: 0
A Worldview Evolution in West European Politics 西欧政治中的世界观演变
Pub Date : 2021-07-22 DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780192896223.003.0002
Erik R. Tillman
This chapter develops the worldview evolution argument that is tested in this book. West European societies have experienced major economic and socio-cultural changes in the past several decades, with the rise of the post-industrial economy, deepening and widening of European integration, and growing multiculturalism and values liberalism. As a result, older political divisions centred on class and religion have given way to new conflicts over national community and identity. Authoritarianism is the key to understanding this evolution of voting behaviour. The changes of the past several decades have generated perceptions of threat to social cohesion among high authoritarians, who have responded by moving towards populist radical right (PRR) parties that promise to fight those threats. Low authoritarians welcome these changes because they perceive them as enhancing individual autonomy and diversity, so they move towards parties that support them. The result is an emerging political conflict organized around rival worldviews: high authoritarians support parties committed to preserving social cohesion and national community, while low authoritarians support parties committed to enhancing individual autonomy and diversity. Because established parties had organized around earlier class and religious divisions, they struggle to maintain voter support in this new era as newer left-liberal and radical right parties gain at their expense. The chapter concludes by describing hypotheses about the evolving relationship between authoritarianism and public support for the EU and voting behaviour, respectively.
这一章发展了本书所检验的世界观进化论论点。在过去的几十年里,随着后工业经济的兴起,欧洲一体化的深化和扩大,以及多元文化主义和价值自由主义的增长,西欧社会经历了重大的经济和社会文化变革。其结果是,以阶级和宗教为中心的旧的政治分歧已经让位于围绕民族共同体和身份的新冲突。威权主义是理解投票行为演变的关键。过去几十年的变化已经在高级威权主义者中产生了对社会凝聚力威胁的看法,他们的回应是转向承诺打击这些威胁的民粹主义激进右翼(PRR)政党。低威权主义者欢迎这些变化,因为他们认为这些变化增强了个人的自主性和多样性,因此他们倾向于支持他们的政党。其结果是围绕对立的世界观组织起来的新出现的政治冲突:高威权主义者支持致力于维护社会凝聚力和民族共同体的政党,而低威权主义者支持致力于加强个人自主性和多样性的政党。由于老牌政党是围绕着早期的阶级和宗教分歧组织起来的,在这个新时代,它们很难保持选民的支持,因为新兴的左翼自由主义和激进右翼政党以牺牲它们的利益为代价获得了支持。本章最后分别描述了威权主义与公众对欧盟的支持和投票行为之间不断演变的关系的假设。
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引用次数: 0
Threat to National Community? 对国家共同体的威胁?
Pub Date : 2021-07-22 DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780192896223.003.0004
Erik R. Tillman
This is the first of two chapters examining the relationship between authoritarianism and attitudes towards the EU. After explaining why existing utilitarian, cultural, and political explanations fail to explain fully the present structure of EU attitudes, the chapter presents the argument that the roots of this polarization over EU attitudes can be found in authoritarianism. The expanded institutional powers and membership of the EU pose a threat to national sovereignty and community. EU institutions have greater capacity to enforce policy upon member states, and the broader membership of the EU opens the borders of member states to a wider population. High authoritarians find these developments threatening and oppose the EU, while low authoritarians view the EU as increasing individual autonomy and social diversity. The analysis compiles data from the European Values Survey and national election studies from several countries. The results show that high authoritarians are less likely to support European integration, to trust the EU, or to support enlargement of the EU’s membership. This relationship holds when measures of social identity are included in this analysis, due in part to the effect of authoritarianism on social identity attitudes. Furthermore, evidence from an original survey conducted in Germany shows that high authoritarians are more likely to believe that the EU threatens Germany’s culture and laws.
这是考察威权主义与对欧盟态度之间关系的两章中的第一章。在解释了为什么现有的功利主义、文化和政治解释无法充分解释欧盟态度的当前结构之后,本章提出了这样的论点,即欧盟态度的这种两极分化的根源可以在威权主义中找到。机构权力的扩大和欧盟成员国的加入对国家主权和共同体构成了威胁。欧盟机构有更大的能力对成员国执行政策,而欧盟更广泛的成员资格向更广泛的人口开放了成员国的边界。高级权威主义者认为这些发展具有威胁性,并反对欧盟,而低级权威主义者则认为欧盟正在增加个人自主权和社会多样性。该分析汇编了来自欧洲价值观调查和几个国家的国家选举研究的数据。结果显示,高威权主义者支持欧洲一体化、信任欧盟或支持欧盟成员国扩大的可能性较小。当社会认同的衡量标准被包括在这个分析中时,这种关系成立,部分原因是专制主义对社会认同态度的影响。此外,在德国进行的一项原始调查的证据表明,高级威权主义者更有可能认为欧盟威胁到德国的文化和法律。
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引用次数: 0
Authoritarianism and Support for Populist Radical Right Parties 威权主义和对民粹主义极右翼政党的支持
Pub Date : 2021-07-22 DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780192896223.003.0006
Erik R. Tillman
This chapter examines the relationship between authoritarianism and the likelihood of voting for populist radical right parties in Western Europe. Radical right parties share an ideology based around nativism, authoritarianism, and populism. This ideology appeals to high authoritarians because it promises tough measures to preserve social cohesion, so high authoritarians are more likely to vote for radical right parties. This prediction is tested using national election study data from a range of West European countries. The results show that high authoritarians are more likely to vote for radical right parties, but even more so if they have weaker attachments to the political mainstream. The final set of analyses examines whether economic anxieties or anti-immigration attitudes moderate this relationship. While economic anxieties matter little to radical right party support, high authoritarians who oppose immigration are more likely to vote for a radical right party. These findings build on existing research by providing a stronger explanation of previous findings linking anti-immigration attitudes or cultural anxieties to radical right party support.
本章考察了专制主义与西欧民粹主义极右翼政党投票可能性之间的关系。激进右翼政党的意识形态基于本土主义、威权主义和民粹主义。这种意识形态对高级权威人士很有吸引力,因为它承诺采取强硬措施来保持社会凝聚力,因此高级权威人士更有可能投票给激进的右翼政党。这一预测是用一系列西欧国家的国家选举研究数据来检验的。结果显示,高度威权主义者更有可能投票给激进的右翼政党,但如果他们对政治主流的依恋程度较低,则更有可能投票给激进右翼政党。最后一组分析考察了经济焦虑或反移民态度是否缓和了这种关系。虽然经济焦虑对极右翼政党的支持影响不大,但反对移民的高级独裁者更有可能投票给极右翼政党。这些发现建立在现有研究的基础上,为之前的研究结果提供了更有力的解释,这些研究结果将反移民态度或文化焦虑与激进右翼政党的支持联系起来。
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引用次数: 6
A Worldview Evolution? 世界观的进化?
Pub Date : 2021-07-22 DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780192896223.003.0010
Erik R. Tillman
The concluding chapter revisits the main arguments and findings of each chapter before turning to a discussion of their implications for our understanding of West European politics. The first implication is that the worldview evolution described in this book is rooted in political psychology rather than group interests or identity. Second, the worldview evolution occurring in Western Europe bears similarities to developments in the USA and other advanced democracies. Though the differences in context mediate how this evolution develops in each part of the world, similar divisions over social cohesion and community are at their heart. Finally, this book’s findings suggest that issues relating to social cohesion and diversity will remain contentious in the coming years. By contrast, economic and class issues may evolve to reflect the new structure of party conflict. Finding common ground across these worldviews will be a core challenge of West European democratic politics in the coming years.
最后一章回顾了每章的主要论点和发现,然后讨论了它们对我们理解西欧政治的影响。第一个含义是,这本书中描述的世界观演变根植于政治心理学,而不是群体利益或身份认同。其次,西欧发生的世界观演变与美国和其他发达民主国家的发展有相似之处。虽然环境的差异决定了这种进化如何在世界各地发展,但在社会凝聚力和社区方面的类似分歧是它们的核心。最后,本书的研究结果表明,与社会凝聚力和多样性有关的问题在未来几年仍将存在争议。相比之下,经济和阶级问题可能演变为反映政党冲突的新结构。在这些世界观中找到共同点将是未来几年西欧民主政治的核心挑战。
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引用次数: 0
Authoritarianism and Potential Support for the Radical Right in Ireland 威权主义和对爱尔兰激进右翼的潜在支持
Pub Date : 2021-07-22 DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780192896223.003.0007
Erik R. Tillman
Although the radical right is gaining support in many West European societies, there remain a few states such as Ireland without a successful radical right party. This absence raises the question of whether unique historical or cultural factors prevent the rise of the radical right in these countries or whether it is contingent. This chapter examines potential electoral support for a radical right party in Ireland. It presents the results of a novel survey experiment, in which voters read about the formation of a hypothetical new party and expressed their willingness to vote for it compared to existing parties. The results show that high authoritarians express greater willingness to vote for a hypothetical new radical right party compared to a hypothetical new mainstream party, while low authoritarians display the opposite pattern. In addition, high authoritarians express greater concern about declining social cohesion in Ireland. Because authoritarianism does not structure voting behaviour, a new radical right party could draw high authoritarians from all of the established parties. These results confirm that the same latent patterns of radical right party support exist in Ireland as in other West European societies and challenge arguments emphasizing cultural uniqueness.
虽然激进党在许多西欧国家获得支持,但仍有少数国家如爱尔兰没有成功的激进党。这种缺失引发了这样一个问题:是独特的历史或文化因素阻止了这些国家激进右翼的崛起,还是偶然的。本章考察了爱尔兰激进右翼政党可能获得的选举支持。它提出了一项新颖的调查实验的结果,选民在阅读假设的新政党形成的消息时,表示他们愿意投票给它,而不是现有的政党。结果显示,与假设的新主流政党相比,高威权主义者更愿意投票给假设的新激进右翼政党,而低威权主义者则表现出相反的模式。此外,高级威权主义者对爱尔兰社会凝聚力的下降表达了更大的担忧。由于威权主义不会组织投票行为,一个新的激进右翼政党可能会从所有老牌政党中吸引高级威权主义者。这些结果证实,爱尔兰与其他西欧社会一样,存在着激进右翼政党支持的潜在模式,并挑战了强调文化独特性的论点。
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引用次数: 0
West European Politics in Turmoil? 西欧政局动荡?
Pub Date : 2021-07-22 DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780192896223.003.0001
Erik R. Tillman
This chapter introduces the puzzle and motivation for the book. Rising support for populist radical right parties in Western Europe and increasing polarization over European integration represent a change from the politics of the 1990s. Radical right parties or candidates have achieved new levels of electoral support in many West European countries. At the same time, though, mainstream values have become increasingly liberal. Thus, recent years have not simply seen a resurgence of right-wing nationalism in Western Europe; they have seen greater polarization concerning issues of national identity and community. In short, West European electoral politics is evolving from conflict based around cleavages such as class to a new dimension of conflict centring on questions of identity, culture, and the demarcation of national boundaries. This chapter reviews existing accounts of this electoral evolution before providing an overview of this book’s arguments and findings.
本章介绍了这本书的困惑和动机。在西欧,民粹主义极右政党的支持率上升,围绕欧洲一体化的两极分化加剧,这与20世纪90年代的政治有所不同。激进右翼政党或候选人在许多西欧国家获得了新的选举支持。但与此同时,主流价值观也变得越来越自由。因此,近年来,西欧右翼民族主义不仅死灰复燃;他们看到在民族认同和社区问题上出现了更大的两极分化。简而言之,西欧的选举政治正在从以阶级等分裂为基础的冲突演变为以身份、文化和国界划分问题为中心的冲突的新维度。本章在概述本书的论点和发现之前,回顾了关于这一选举演变的现有描述。
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引用次数: 0
The Evolving Relationship between Authoritarianism and EU Attitudes 威权主义与欧盟态度的演变关系
Pub Date : 2021-07-22 DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780192896223.003.0005
Erik R. Tillman
This chapter examines the evolving relationship between authoritarianism and EU attitudes from the early 1990s until 2017. Up until the early 1990s, EU attitudes were structured primarily by economic concerns. The economic ‘winners’ of European integration (e.g. professionals) supported the EU more than the ‘losers’ (e.g. unskilled workers). With the debate over the EU centred increasingly on socio-cultural issues, the structure of EU attitudes has shifted—activating the perception of threat among high authoritarians. In the 1990s, there is no relationship between authoritarianism and EU attitudes, but a negative relationship emerges in the twenty-first century. Moreover, this relationship is stronger in those countries that had more national-level party conflict over the EU. Because this conflict resulted from the emergence of anti-EU parties, this result indicates that high authoritarians became more likely to oppose the EU in those countries where Eurosceptical parties were more successful in advancing the message that the EU threatens national community. These results suggest that the evolution of EU attitudes reflects the growing perception of threat to national community and sovereignty—and this evolution has been strongest where Eurosceptical political elites have been more influential.
本章考察了从20世纪90年代初到2017年威权主义与欧盟态度之间不断演变的关系。直到20世纪90年代初,欧盟的态度主要是由经济问题构成的。欧洲一体化的经济“赢家”(如专业人士)比“输家”(如非技术工人)更支持欧盟。随着关于欧盟的争论越来越多地集中在社会文化问题上,欧盟的态度结构发生了变化——激活了高层威权主义者对威胁的感知。在20世纪90年代,威权主义和欧盟的态度之间没有关系,但在21世纪出现了一种负相关关系。此外,这种关系在那些在欧盟问题上有更多国家层面党派冲突的国家更为强烈。由于这种冲突是由反欧盟政党的出现造成的,因此这一结果表明,在那些怀疑欧洲的政党更成功地传播了欧盟威胁国家共同体的信息的国家,高级独裁者更有可能反对欧盟。这些结果表明,欧盟态度的演变反映了对国家共同体和主权威胁的日益增长的认识,这种演变在欧洲怀疑主义政治精英更有影响力的地方表现得最为强烈。
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引用次数: 0
Authoritarianism and the Evolution of Voting Behaviour 威权主义与投票行为的演变
Pub Date : 2021-07-22 DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780192896223.003.0009
Erik R. Tillman
This chapter analyses the evolution of the relationship between authoritarianism and party support from 1990 to 2017. The chapter presents the analyses of eight different countries, and two conclusions emerge. First, high authoritarians have shifted towards radical right parties over the past three decades though there was no prior cross-national relationship between authoritarianism and party support in each country. As a result, different mainstream parties in each country have lost support as high authoritarians increasingly vote for PRR parties. This finding challenges the popular narrative that PRR parties have gained at the expense of social democratic parties, which only holds true in certain countries. The analysis also shows that low authoritarians have shifted towards left-liberal parties such as the greens, further contributing to the worldview evolution. As high authoritarians move towards radical right parties and low authoritarians towards left-liberal parties, traditional centre-left and centre-right parties that were based on twentieth-century class and religious conflicts struggle for support, particularly as generational replacement results in the depletion of their traditional voters.
本章分析了1990年至2017年威权主义与政党支持关系的演变。本章对八个不同的国家进行了分析,得出了两个结论。首先,在过去的三十年里,虽然威权主义和政党支持之间没有跨国关系,但高级威权主义者已经转向激进的右翼政党。结果,随着高威权主义者越来越多地投票给PRR政党,每个国家的不同主流政党都失去了支持。这一发现挑战了一种流行的说法,即民主革命党以牺牲社会民主党为代价获得了胜利,这种说法只在某些国家成立。分析还显示,低威权主义者已转向左翼自由主义政党,如绿党,这进一步促进了世界观的演变。随着高权威主义者转向激进右翼政党,低权威主义者转向左翼自由主义政党,传统的中左翼和中右翼政党基于20世纪的阶级和宗教冲突而争取支持,特别是随着代际更替导致其传统选民的枯竭。
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引用次数: 0
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Authoritarianism and the Evolution of West European Electoral Politics
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