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Stability and Bifurcation Analysis of Reservoir Sedimentation Management 水库沉降管理的稳定性与分岔分析
Pub Date : 2010-12-21 DOI: 10.2174/1874378101004010102
R. Huffaker, D. Rider, R. Hotchkiss
The alarming loss of water storage capacity to sedimentation in reservoirs worldwide is prompting a paradigm shift toward sustainable management. Previous research has investigated the physical capability of various technologies to control reservoir sediment, and formulated economic rules governing their optimal sustainable use. We ask the next rele- vant questions: Is sustainable reservoir management structurally stable for particular technologies, or do thresholds exist such that small perturbations in key management parameters abruptly unleash dynamics driving the reservoir toward ex- tinction? What are the dynamic properties of reservoirs in transition? We uncover a saddle-node bifurcation for the par- ticular case of a multi-purpose public reservoir manager who adopts the environmentally friendly 'hydrosuction-dredging' sediment removal technology. Beyond the bifurcation threshold, sustainable management abruptly gives way to eventual loss of storage capacity to sedimentation. Reservoirs throughout the world suffer from sedimenta- tion. Examples include estimated annual storage capacity losses of 2.3% in China (2), 0.5% in India (2), and 1% worldwide (3). Specific examples are catalogued by Batuca and Jordaan (4). These include the Cir-lurtsk Reservoir on the Sulak River (Russia) which was 95% sedimented in 7 years; the Gumati Reservoir on the Vakhs River (Georgia) which was 90% sedimented in 11 years; and the Zemo Af- char Reservoir at the confluence of the Kura and Aragi Riv- ers (Russia) which lost 44% of its initial storage capacity in the first 2 years, 32% in the next 8 years, and 3.5% up to 1967. Other examples include the Tarbela Dam on the Indus River—the most important facility of its kind in Pakistan— which lost 20% of its storage capacity after 23 years of op- eration (5); and the Matilija Dam in California whose storage capacity decreased from 7,000 acre feet in 1947 to less than 500 acre feet by 2005 (6).
世界各地水库的蓄水能力因泥沙淤积而急剧减少,这促使人们转向可持续管理模式。以往的研究考察了各种技术控制水库泥沙的物理能力,并制定了控制水库泥沙最佳可持续利用的经济规则。我们提出了下一个相关的问题:对于特定的技术来说,可持续的油藏管理在结构上是稳定的吗?或者是否存在这样的阈值,即关键管理参数的微小扰动会突然释放出驱动油藏走向灭绝的动力学?过渡型储层的动力特性是什么?我们发现了一个多用途公共水库管理者采用环境友好的“抽水疏浚”沉积物清除技术的特殊情况下的鞍节点分叉。超过分岔阈值,可持续管理突然让位给最终因泥沙淤积而丧失的储存能力。全世界的水库都受到沉积的影响。例如,中国(2)、印度(2)和世界范围内(3)的年储水量估计损失分别为2.3%、0.5%和1%。Batuca和Jordaan(4)对具体的例子进行了分类。这些例子包括俄罗斯苏拉克河上的cirr -lurtsk水库,在7年内沉积了95%;乔治亚州瓦克斯河(Vakhs River)上的古马提水库(Gumati Reservoir), 11年来淤积了90%;库拉河和阿拉木河汇合处的泽莫阿夫查尔水库(俄罗斯)在头两年损失了44%的初始储水量,在接下来的8年里损失了32%,到1967年损失了3.5%。其他的例子包括印度河上的塔贝拉大坝——巴基斯坦同类大坝中最重要的设施——在运行23年后失去了20%的储存能力(5);加州的Matilija大坝,蓄水能力从1947年的7000英亩英尺下降到2005年的不到500英亩英尺(6)。
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引用次数: 2
Estimating soil salinity over a shallow saline water table in semiarid Tunisia. 在半干旱的突尼斯估算浅层含盐地下水位的土壤盐度。
Pub Date : 2010-11-26 DOI: 10.2174/1874378101004010091
F. Bouksila, M. Persson, R. Berndtsson, A. Bahri, I. Hamba
Rapid and reliable observations of soil electrical conductivity are essential in order to maintain sustainable irri- gated agriculture. Direct measurement of the electrical conductivity of saturated soil paste (ECe), however, is tedious and time consuming. Therefore, there are needs to find efficient indirect methods to predict the soil salinity from other readily available observations. In this paper we explore the application of multiple linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural networks (ANN) to predict ECe variation from easily measured soil and groundwater properties under highly complex and heterogeneous field conditions in semiarid Tunisia. We compare two methods for dividing the data set into training and validation sub-sets; a statistical (SD) and a random data set division (RD), and their effect on model performance. The in- put variables were chosen from the plot coordinates, groundwater table properties (depth, electrical conductivity, pie- zometric level), and soil particle size at 5 depths. The results obtained with ANN and MLR indicate that the statistical properties of data in the training and validation sets need to be taken into account to ensure that optimal model perform- ance is achieved. The SD can be considered as a solution to resolve the problem of over-fitting a model when using ANN. For the SD, the determination coefficient (R 2 ) when using an ANN model varied from 0.85 to 0.88 and the root mean square error from 1.23 to 1.80 dS m -1 . Because of the complexity of the field soil salinity process and the spatial variabil- ity of the data, this clearly indicates the potential to use ANN models to predict ECe.
快速、可靠地观测土壤电导率对维持可持续灌溉农业至关重要。然而,直接测量饱和土膏体的电导率是一项繁琐且耗时的工作。因此,需要寻找有效的间接方法,从其他现成的观测数据中预测土壤盐度。本文探讨了多元线性回归(MLR)和人工神经网络(ANN)在半干旱突尼斯高度复杂和非均质野外条件下,从容易测量的土壤和地下水性质预测ECe变化的应用。我们比较了将数据集划分为训练子集和验证子集的两种方法;统计(SD)和随机数据集划分(RD),以及它们对模型性能的影响。输入变量选择自样地坐标、地下水位特性(深度、电导率、饼状水位)和5个深度的土壤粒度。人工神经网络和MLR的结果表明,需要考虑训练集和验证集数据的统计特性,以确保获得最优的模型性能。SD可以被认为是解决使用人工神经网络时模型过拟合问题的一种方法。对于SD,使用ANN模型时的决定系数(r2)在0.85 ~ 0.88之间,均方根误差在1.23 ~ 1.80 dS m -1之间。由于田间土壤盐分过程的复杂性和数据的空间变异性,这清楚地表明了使用人工神经网络模型预测土壤盐分的潜力。
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引用次数: 16
Characterization methods for small estuarine systems in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States. 美国中大西洋地区小型河口系统的表征方法。
Pub Date : 2010-11-06 DOI: 10.2174/1874378101004010065
J. F. Paul, J. Kiddon, C. Strobel
Various statistical methods were applied to spatially discrete data from 14 intensively sampled small estuarine systems in the mid-Atlantic U.S. The number of sites per system ranged from 6 to 37. The surface area of the systems ranged from 1.9 to 193.4 km 2 . Parameters examined were depth, bottom temperature, bottom salinity, surface chlorophyll a, bottom dissolved oxygen, lead concentration in sediments, silt-clay content of sediments, and number of infaunal ben- thic species. Statistical methods included means, standard deviations, coefficients of variation, empirical cumulative dis- tribution functions, and contours determined by bivariate interpolation and interpolation by kriging. All of these methods were found to be appropriate depending upon the purpose of the characterization. Contouring was applied only to those systems with at least 23 discrete sample sites (7 systems). Cross-validation and randomization techniques were used to compare the two interpolation methods. Kriging was advantageous over bivariate interpolation when moderate to strong spatial correlation existed in the residuals (that is, after removal of the spatial trend with a nonparametric regression model). When kriging was conducted, the removal of the trend was necessary if the stationarity assumption was to be valid. The Delaware/Maryland coastal bays are shallow, well-mixed (horizontally and vertically) systems that exhibit little or no spatial correlation for the parameters examined. The South and Severn Rivers, subsystems of the Chesapeake Bay, exhibited moderate to strong spatial dependence for some parameters. Randomization techniques were used to evaluate the effect of decreasing the number of sites in kriged parameters. Based upon these randomizations, it was found that 23 discrete sites could be used for kriging in estuaries with characteristics similar to those in the mid-Atlantic and if the sam- ples were collected with a comparable design.
采用不同的统计方法对美国大西洋中部14个密集采样的小河口系统的空间离散数据进行了分析,每个系统的站点数量从6到37不等。这些系统的表面积从1.9到193.4 km2不等。检测的参数包括深度、底部温度、底部盐度、表面叶绿素a、底部溶解氧、沉积物中的铅浓度、沉积物的粉质粘土含量和水生底栖生物种类的数量。统计方法包括均值、标准差、变异系数、经验累积分布函数和由二元插值和克里格插值确定的轮廓。根据表征的目的,所有这些方法都是合适的。轮廓只应用于那些至少有23个离散样本点的系统(7个系统)。采用交叉验证和随机化技术对两种插值方法进行比较。当残差中存在中等到强的空间相关性时(即使用非参数回归模型去除空间趋势后),Kriging比二元插值更有利。当进行克里格时,如果平稳性假设是有效的,就必须去除趋势。特拉华州/马里兰州沿海海湾是浅的,混合良好的(水平和垂直)系统,对所检查的参数显示很少或没有空间相关性。作为切萨皮克湾的子系统,南河和塞文河在某些参数上表现出中等到强烈的空间依赖性。随机化技术用于评估减少克里格参数中位点数量的效果。在这些随机化的基础上,发现有23个离散的地点可以用于克里格鱼,这些地点的特征与大西洋中部的河口相似,如果样本是用可比较的设计收集的。
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引用次数: 0
Testing computational algorithms for unsaturated flow. 测试非饱和流动的计算算法。
Pub Date : 2010-03-20 DOI: 10.2174/1874378101004010227
F. Tracy
The purpose of this work is to test different computational algorithms for unsaturated flow for accuracy and robustness by comparing computed results in a finite element program with analytical solutions. Because real-world problems are complex, testing codes for accuracy is often difficult. This is particularly true for flow in the vadose zone where Richards' equation is highly nonlinear. Recently, however, Tracy (Tracy WRRJ 2006) [1] (Tracy JHYD 2007) [2] has derived analytical solutions for a box-shaped flow region that is initially dry until water is applied to the top of the region. Two-dimensional and three-dimensional versions of these solutions for both steady-state and transient flow are available to be used in the testing process. Numerical precision and nonlinear solver robustness were investigated for varying degrees of nonlinearity by varying the Gardner parameter. As was increased, three ways of modeling relative hydraulic conductivity inside individual finite elements and two versions of the nonlinear solver were tested using three different ways to measure the error. The results of these tests are given in this paper.
这项工作的目的是通过比较有限元程序与解析解的计算结果来测试不同的非饱和流动计算算法的准确性和鲁棒性。因为现实世界的问题是复杂的,测试代码的准确性通常是困难的。对于气包带中的流动尤其如此,因为理查兹方程是高度非线性的。然而,最近Tracy (Tracy WRRJ 2006) [1] (Tracy JHYD 2007)[2]推导出了一个箱形流区的解析解,该流区最初是干燥的,直到该区域顶部加水。这些解决方案的二维和三维版本可用于稳态和瞬态流动的测试过程中。通过改变Gardner参数,研究了不同非线性程度下的数值精度和非线性求解器的鲁棒性。在此基础上,采用三种不同的方法对单个有限元单元内的相对水力传导性进行建模,并对两种版本的非线性求解器进行了测试,使用三种不同的方法来测量误差。本文给出了这些试验的结果。
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引用次数: 4
Hydrological Modelling in the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia Using SWAT Model 利用SWAT模型在埃塞俄比亚塔纳湖流域进行水文模拟
Pub Date : 2008-09-18 DOI: 10.2174/1874378100802010049
S. Setegn, R. Srinivasan, B. Dargahi
The SWAT2005 model was applied to the Lake Tana Basin for modeling of the hydrological water balance. The main objective of this study was to test the performance and feasibility of the SWAT model for prediction of stream- flow in the Lake Tana Basin. The model was calibrated and validated on four tributaries of Lake Tana; Gumera, GilgelA- bay, Megech and Ribb rivers using SUFI-2, GLUE and ParaSol algorithms. The sensitivity analysis of the model to sub- basin delineation and HRU definition thresholds showed that the flow is more sensitive to the HRU definition thresholds than subbasin discretization effect. SUFI-2 and GLUE gave good result. All sources of uncertainties were captured by bracketing more than 60% of the observed river discharge. Baseflow (40% - 60%) is an important component of the total discharge within the study area that contributes more than the surface runoff. The calibrated model can be used for further analysis of the effect of climate and land use change as well as other different management scenarios on streamflow and soil erosion.
应用SWAT2005模型对塔纳湖流域进行了水文水平衡模拟。本研究的主要目的是测试SWAT模型在塔纳湖流域水流预测中的性能和可行性。在塔纳湖的四条支流上对模型进行了标定和验证;Gumera, GilgelA- bay, Megech和Ribb河使用SUFI-2, GLUE和ParaSol算法。模型对子盆地圈定和HRU定义阈值的敏感性分析表明,相对于子盆地离散化效应,该模型对HRU定义阈值的敏感性更高。SUFI-2和GLUE效果良好。所有不确定因素的来源都被纳入了60%以上的观测河流流量。基流(40% ~ 60%)是研究区总流量的重要组成部分,贡献大于地表径流。校正后的模型可用于进一步分析气候和土地利用变化以及其他不同管理方案对河流和土壤侵蚀的影响。
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引用次数: 298
Exceptional Rainfall Characteristics Related to Erosion Risk in Semiarid Tunisia 与半干旱突尼斯的侵蚀风险相关的异常降雨特征
Pub Date : 2008-05-30 DOI: 10.2174/1874378100802010025
S. Jebari, R. Berndtsson, A. Bahri, M. Boufaroua
The Tunisian Dorsal area is representative of the semiarid Mediterranean region in terms of water resources availability as well as exceptional rainfall characteristics, runoff generation, and soil loss risk. In this context, soil properties, surface management practices together with highly intensive rainfall make the soils vulnerable to erosion. If the exceptional rainfall characteristics are linked to different erosion types, the erosion risk could be evaluated in a simple and straightforward way. In this regard, a short time-scale rainfall data base from the Dorsal area was analysed in the paper. The procedure used involves finding a representative duration between 1-60 min for the exceptional rainfall characteristics. Rainfall intensities of different return periods are then related to the different erosion types. The identified exceptional rainfall durations between 1-60 min were analyzed in terms of number of events, depth, average intensity and maximum intensity. Results show that the 15-min duration maximum intensity can be used to evaluate erosion risk based on soil erosion type. The developed methodology can be used to evaluate erosion risk in semiarid regions based on exceptional rainfall characteristics. In practical terms the results can be used to better manage catchments that are vulnerable to soil erosion. (Less)
突尼斯背侧地区在水资源可用性、异常降雨特征、径流产生和土壤流失风险方面是半干旱地中海地区的代表。在这种情况下,土壤特性、地表管理措施以及高度密集的降雨使土壤容易受到侵蚀。如果将异常降雨特征与不同的侵蚀类型联系起来,则可以简单直接地评估侵蚀风险。在这方面,本文分析了来自背侧地区的短时间尺度降雨数据库。所使用的程序包括为异常降雨特征找到1-60分钟之间的代表性持续时间。不同回归期的降雨强度与不同侵蚀类型有关。从事件数、深度、平均强度和最大强度等方面分析了已确定的1-60分钟异常降雨持续时间。结果表明:15 min持续时间最大强度可用于土壤侵蚀类型的侵蚀风险评价;所开发的方法可用于基于异常降雨特征的半干旱区侵蚀风险评估。实际上,研究结果可用于更好地管理易受土壤侵蚀影响的集水区。(少)
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引用次数: 33
The Geometry of Soil Crack Networks 土壤裂缝网络的几何结构
Pub Date : 2008-03-30 DOI: 10.2174/1874378100802010034
V. Chertkov
The subject of this work is the modification and specification of an approach to detail the estimation of soil crack network characteristics. The modification aims at accounting for the corrected soil crack volume based on the corrected shrinkage geometry factor compared to known estimates of crack volume and shrinkage geometry factor. The mode of the correction relies on recent results of the soil reference shrinkage curve. The main exposition follows the preliminary brief review of available approaches to dealing with the geometry of soil crack networks and gives a preliminary brief summary of the approach to be modified and specified. To validate and illustrate the modified approach the latter is used in the analysis of available data on soil cracking in a lysimeter.
这项工作的主题是对一种详细估计土壤裂缝网络特征的方法进行修改和规范。与已知的裂缝体积和收缩几何因子的估计值相比,修正的目的是根据修正的收缩几何因子来计算修正的土壤裂缝体积。修正模式依赖于土壤参考收缩曲线的最新结果。主要论述是对处理土壤裂缝网络几何形状的现有方法进行初步简要回顾,并对需要修改和指定的方法进行初步简要总结。为了验证和说明修改后的方法,后者被用于分析现有数据的土壤开裂在一个渗湿计。
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引用次数: 12
Spatial Distribution of Water Quality and Load Units in the Iinashi River Basin, Shimane Prefecture, Japan 日本岛根县林石河流域水质及负荷单元的空间分布
Pub Date : 2008-03-24 DOI: 10.2174/1874378100802010015
H. Somura, D. Nakayama, M. Aizaki, Y. Seike, M. Okumura, Kumiko Nishikata
The spatial distributions of water quality and load units were determined for each small sub basin of the Iinashi River basin as a first step in water environment management. In addition, a GIS database was established to comprehensively resolve the issue of water quality degradation. It was found the concentrations of water quality parameters in the Iinashi River basin were relatively low at almost all sampling points. The average concentrations of each parameter are 1.86 mg·L -1 of chemical oxygen demand, 0.73 mg·L -1 of dissolved organic carbon, 18.5 % of biodegradation ability, 6.58 mg·L -1 of silica, 519.8 μgN·L -1 of total nitrogen, and 27.4 μgP·L -1 of total phospho- rus. In addition, the load units discharged from the small watersheds were obtained. The load units varied greatly regardless of similar land use in the basin. Moreover, discharged loads from observation point 1-31 in the Yamasa River basin were higher than those from observation point 1-5 in the upstream of the Iinashi River basin regardless of high percentage of forest area (91.51%), low percentage of agricultural land (2.3%) and low population density (24 people·km -2 ). Finally, the discharged loads from observation point 1-3 were de- termined as 53.2 g·ha -1 ·day -1 of suspended solid, 45.4 g·ha -1 ·day -1 of chemical oxygen demand, 20.9 g·ha -1 ·day -1 of dissolved organic car- bon, 8.1 g·ha -1 ·day -1 of particulate organic carbon, 16.3 g·ha -1 ·day -1 of total nitrogen, 5.0 g·ha -1 ·day -1 of dissolved organic nitrogen, 1.3 g·ha -1 ·day -1 of particulate organic nitrogen, and 0.3 g·ha -1 ·day -1 of total phosphorus.
作为水环境管理的第一步,确定了林石河流域各小流域的水质和负荷单元的空间分布。建立GIS数据库,全面解决水质退化问题。结果表明,林石河流域水质参数在几乎所有采样点的浓度都相对较低。各参数的平均浓度分别为化学需氧量1.86 mg·L -1、溶解有机碳0.73 mg·L -1、生物降解能力18.5%、二氧化硅6.58 mg·L -1、总氮519.8 μgN·L -1、总磷27.4 μgP·L -1。此外,还得到了各小流域的负荷单元。流域内不同土地利用方式的负荷单位差异很大。此外,山正河流域1 ~ 31观测点在森林面积比例高(91.51%)、农用地比例低(2.3%)、人口密度低(24人·km -2)的情况下,其排放负荷均高于稻石河流域上游1 ~ 5观测点。最后,排放负荷从观测点1 - 3 de -时间53.2 g·哈1·第一天的悬浮固体,45.4 g·哈1·第一天的化学需氧量,20.9 g·哈·天1溶解有机汽车——好,8.1 g·哈1·颗粒有机碳的第1天,16.3 g·哈1·总氮的第1天,5.0 g·哈·天1溶解有机氮、1.3 g·哈·天1颗粒有机氮、和0.3 g·哈1·总磷的第一天。
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引用次数: 0
WaterBase: SWAT in an Open Source GIS WaterBase:开源GIS中的SWAT
Pub Date : 2008-01-14 DOI: 10.2174/1874378100802010001
C. George, L. León
W aterBase is a project of the United Nations University. Its aim is to advance the practice of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) in developing countries, by providing (a) free, open source tools for modeling and decision support (b) a collection of IWRM resources: web sites, tools, literature, training material, etc. and (c) a community of partners who can provide advice, support, contribute to tools and resources. A first step in the project is a tool to provide Geographic Information System (GIS) support and a setup interface for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). This paper describes the design of this tool, called Map Window SWAT (MWSWAT).
水基是联合国大学的一个项目。其目的是通过提供(a)建模和决策支持的免费、开源工具(b)综合水资源管理资源的集合:网站、工具、文献、培训材料等)和(c)可以提供咨询、支持、对工具和资源作出贡献的伙伴社区,促进发展中国家的综合水资源管理(IWRM)实践。该项目的第一步是提供地理信息系统(GIS)支持的工具和水土评估工具(SWAT)的设置界面。本文介绍了地图窗口SWAT (MWSWAT)工具的设计。
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引用次数: 46
The Soil Reference Shrinkage Curve 土壤参考收缩曲线
Pub Date : 2007-12-06 DOI: 10.2174/1874378100701010001
V. Chertkov
A recently proposed model showed how a clay shrinkage curve is transformed to the soil shrinkage curve at the soil clay content higher than a critical one. The objective of the present work was to generalize this model to the soil clay content lower a critical one. I investigated (i) the reference shrinkage curve, that is, one without cracks; (ii) the superficial layer of aggregates, with changed pore structure compared with the intraaggregate matrix; and (iii) soils with sufficiently low clay content where there are large pores inside the intraaggregate clay (so-called lacunar pores). The methodology is based on detail accounting for different contributions to the soil volume and water content during shrinkage. The key point is the calculation of the lacunar pore volume variance at shrinkage. The reference shrinkage curve is determined by eight physical soil parameters: (1) oven-dried specific volume; (2) maximum swelling water content; (3) mean solid den- sity; (4) soil clay content; (5) oven-dried structural porosity; (6) the ratio of aggregate solid mass to solid mass of intraag- gregate matrix; (7) the lacunar factor that characterizes the rate of the lacunar pore volume change with water content; and (8) oven-dried lacunar pore volume. The model was validated using available data. The model predicted value of the slope of the reference shrinkage curve in the basic shrinkage area is equal to unity minus the lacunar factor value, and is be- tween unity and zero in the agreement with observations.
最近提出的一个模型显示了粘土收缩曲线如何在土壤粘土含量高于临界含量时转化为土壤收缩曲线。本工作的目的是将该模型推广到低于临界的土壤粘土含量。我研究了(1)参考收缩曲线,即没有裂缝的曲线;(ii)聚集体的表层,其孔隙结构与聚集体内部基质相比发生了变化;(iii)粘土含量足够低的土壤,团聚体内粘土内部有大孔隙(所谓的腔隙孔隙)。该方法是基于在收缩过程中对土壤体积和含水量的不同贡献的详细计算。关键是计算收缩时腔隙孔隙体积的变化。参考收缩曲线由8个土壤物理参数确定:(1)烘干比体积;(2)最大膨胀含水量;(3)平均固体密度;(4)土壤粘粒含量;(5)烘干结构孔隙度;(6)集料固体质量与集料内基质固体质量之比;(7)表征孔隙体积随含水量变化速率的腔隙因子;(8)烘干腔隙孔体积。利用现有数据对模型进行了验证。模型预测的参考收缩曲线在基本收缩区域的斜率等于1减去空间因子值,与观测值吻合,介于1和0之间。
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引用次数: 21
期刊
The Open Hydrology Journal
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