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Monetary Policy Transmission Paths and Money Supply in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Nigeria and Ghana 撒哈拉以南非洲的货币政策传导路径与货币供给:来自尼日利亚和加纳的证据
Pub Date : 2021-12-29 DOI: 10.53935/26415313.v4i2.187
Ugwuanyi Georgina Obinne, Efanga, Udeme Okon, Okanya Ogochukwu Chinelo
The main objective of this study gears towards evaluating monetary policy transmission paths and money supply in Sub- Saharan Africa: evidence from Nigeria and Ghana from1981- 2018. The Central Bank of Nigeria, Bank of Ghana and World Bank, World Development Indicator of 2018 furnished us with the data used for analysis. This study explored three different monetary policy transmission channels: interest rate, credit and asset pricing transmission channels and these variables were regressed on money supply in both countries using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model estimation technique. The study also employed other diagnostic tests such as: Normality, Auto correlation test, Heteroskedasticity test and Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM test and they confirmed the validity and reliability of the model employed. The inferential results revealed that credit to private sector transmission channels in both Nigeria and Ghana had positive and significant impact on money supply but lending rate transmission paths in the two countries impacted insignificantly on money supply. This study concludes that monetary policy transmission channels in Nigeria were more robust in impacting on money supply than in Ghana. As such, the study recommends that monetary authorities of both countries need to formulate stringent monetary policies that will reduce the circulation of money outside the financial systems and there should be a synergy between monetary and fiscal policies in both economies so as to aid the instruments of macroeconomic policies achieve their objectives.
本研究的主要目的是评估撒哈拉以南非洲的货币政策传导路径和货币供应:1981年至2018年尼日利亚和加纳的证据。尼日利亚中央银行、加纳银行和世界银行《2018年世界发展指标》为我们提供了用于分析的数据。本研究探讨了三种不同的货币政策传导渠道:利率、信贷和资产定价传导渠道,并利用自动回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型估计技术对两国的货币供应量进行回归。本研究还采用了其他诊断检验,如:正态性检验、自相关检验、异方差检验和Breusch-Godfrey序列相关LM检验,证实了所采用模型的效度和信度。推论结果显示,尼日利亚和加纳的私营部门信贷传导渠道对货币供应量有显著的正向影响,但两国的贷款利率传导路径对货币供应量的影响不显著。本研究的结论是,尼日利亚的货币政策传导渠道对货币供应的影响比加纳更强。因此,该研究建议,两国货币当局需要制定严格的货币政策,以减少金融体系外的货币流通,并在两个经济体的货币政策和财政政策之间形成协同作用,以帮助宏观经济政策工具实现其目标。
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引用次数: 1
A Study on Development of Agraria Research and Innovation System in Bulgaria 保加利亚农业研究与创新体系发展研究
Pub Date : 2021-12-29 DOI: 10.53935/26415313.v4i2.189
Hrabrin Bachev Храбрин Башев
Despite the great theoretical and practical significance, in Bulgaria there are no comprehensive analysis of the state and evolution of agrarian research and development (ARD) activities in public and private sectors. The goal of this paper is to analyze the state and evolution of ARD in Bulgaria during the period after country’s EU accession in 2007, identify major trends in that area, make a comparison with other EU states, specify main problems, and suggest conclusions for improvement of policies during next programing period. The analysis has found out that in years of EU membership the expenditures for ARD significantly decreased absolutely and relatively as a share in the total expenditures for R&D, which indicates diminishing importance, and deteriorating financial, personnel and material potential of agrarian knowledge and innovation sector. The most important sector for ARD in the country is the government in which more than 80% of overall expenditures for ARD are invested, as distribution of expenditures and organization of R&D in major sectors differ considerably from other EU member states. ARD in the country mainly are funded by the state budget, and the importance of budget financing relatedly increases during the period, unlike trends in other EU countries.
尽管具有重大的理论和实践意义,但在保加利亚,没有对公共和私营部门的农业研究与发展活动的状况和演变进行全面分析。本文的目的是分析保加利亚在2007年加入欧盟后的一段时间内ARD的状况和演变,确定该领域的主要趋势,与其他欧盟国家进行比较,明确主要问题,并为下一个规划期的政策改进提出结论。分析发现,在欧盟成员国的年份中,研发支出在研发总支出中的绝对份额和相对份额显著下降,这表明农业知识和创新部门的重要性下降,财政、人员和物质潜力不断恶化。该国研发最重要的部门是政府,研发总支出的80%以上都投入了政府,因为主要部门的支出分配和研发组织与其他欧盟成员国有很大不同。该国的ARD主要由国家预算提供资金,预算融资的重要性在此期间相对增加,这与其他欧盟国家的趋势不同。
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引用次数: 2
Georgia Tax Policy Directions in Value Added Tax (VAT) and Expected Results of Reforms 格鲁吉亚增值税税收政策方向及改革预期效果
Pub Date : 2021-11-10 DOI: 10.53935/2641-5313.v4i1.64
Iza Bukia
The research aims to review the direction of Georgia's economic policy, in particular, the reforms implemented in the field of tax policy in value added tax (VAT). For this purpose, the method of comparing the legislative records, as well as the analysis of official statistical data and their generalization are used, as well as the research I conducted (the results of a survey of entrepreneurs) on several reforms in value added tax. The current result of the major reforms in this tax is an indicator of positive dynamics. This study will allow stakeholders (as well as entrepreneurs) to evaluate the effectiveness of tax policy, which is reflected in both statistical information and international rankings. The general business environment following the reforms and the regulatory norms of value added tax (VAT) in Georgia will be analyzed. This will be the basis for observing the dynamics of the positive indicators of the reforms carried out, and at the same time to take into account the influence of environmental factors during the assessment.
本研究旨在回顾格鲁吉亚经济政策的走向,特别是增值税税收政策领域实施的改革。为此,我采用了比较立法记录的方法,以及对官方统计数据的分析和归纳,以及我对几项增值税改革的研究(对企业家的调查结果)。这项税收的重大改革目前的结果是积极动态的一个指标。这项研究将允许利益相关者(以及企业家)评估税收政策的有效性,这反映在统计信息和国际排名中。分析格鲁吉亚增值税(VAT)改革和监管规范后的总体商业环境。这将是观察所进行改革的积极指标动态的基础,同时在评估过程中考虑到环境因素的影响。
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引用次数: 0
On the Construction of a Leading Indicator Based on News Headlines for Predicting Greek Deposit Outflows 基于新闻标题的希腊存款流出先行指标构建研究
Pub Date : 2021-09-10 DOI: 10.53935/2641-5313.v4i1.57
D. Anastasiou, A. Petralias
Employing data in a monthly frequency, with a sample period spanning from 2002 to 2018, the purpose of this study is twofold. First, we construct a novel leading indicator based on news headlines drawn from Bloomberg, and second, examine whether this leading indicator able to capture agents’ sentiment affects Greek bank deposit flows’ trajectory. Employing alternative econometric methodologies, we find that this index proxies for depositors’ crisis sentiment and the higher this index becomes, the higher the depositors’ negative sentiment becomes, leading them to withdraw their bank deposits. Overall, in this work, we show that the last decade’s advances in internet technology, which permit us to have direct access to a vast amount of information such as news headlines, offers the possibility of forecasting critical measures in the economy’s banking system, such as the number of bank deposits, which are of crucial importance. Monetary poly authorities or macroprudential regulators could adapt our model to assess the resilience of a bank or the whole banking sector.
采用每月频率的数据,样本期从2002年到2018年,本研究的目的是双重的。首先,我们基于彭博社的新闻标题构建了一个新的领先指标,其次,我们检验了这个领先指标是否能够捕捉到代理人的情绪对希腊银行存款流动轨迹的影响。采用替代计量经济学方法,我们发现该指数代表了存款人的危机情绪,该指数越高,存款人的负面情绪越高,导致他们提取银行存款。总的来说,在这项工作中,我们表明,过去十年互联网技术的进步,使我们能够直接访问大量信息,如新闻标题,提供了预测经济银行系统关键指标的可能性,如银行存款数量,这是至关重要的。货币多头当局或宏观审慎监管机构可以调整我们的模型,以评估一家银行或整个银行业的弹性。
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引用次数: 2
An Analysis of the Determinants of Household Consumption Expenditure and Poverty in Indonesia 印尼家庭消费支出与贫困的决定因素分析
Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.53935/2641-5313.V3I1.38
Nely Suriani
The main question of the research that is examined in the research is what the determinants of household consumption expenditure and poverty in Indonesia are. For this purpose, six key variables were selected which includes, household consumption expenditure, level of gross national income (GNI), level of population, lending interest rate, unemployment rate and also global financial crises. However, paper specifically attempted to conduct data analysis on the Indonesia; hence data of Indonesia was collected from World Bank Data centre. Data for the Indonesia was available for the period of 1990 to 2019. To determine stationarity of the data, Augmented Dickey-fuller (ADF) test was conducted. The ADF revealed that data was non-stationary and to resolve the issue of unit root, second difference of the variables resolved the issue and tests were conducted on second difference. Furthermore, instead of using the ordinary least square (OLS) regression, autoregressive distrusted lag model (ARDL) was preferred. The bound test reveals that there is long-run effect means cointegration present among the variable; hence the household consumption expenditure could be used to predict or estimate the household consumption and poverty in long-run. Meanwhile, ARDL results has suggested that there is no short-run effect of any of the regressors on the regressand household consumption expenditure and poverty.
本研究考察的主要问题是印度尼西亚家庭消费支出和贫困的决定因素是什么。为此,选择了六个关键变量,包括家庭消费支出,国民总收入水平(GNI),人口水平,贷款利率,失业率和全球金融危机。然而,本文专门试图对印度尼西亚进行数据分析;因此,印度尼西亚的数据是从世界银行数据中心收集的。印度尼西亚的数据为1990年至2019年。为了确定数据的平稳性,进行了增强Dickey-fuller (ADF)检验。ADF显示数据是非平稳的,为了解决单位根的问题,变量的二次差分解决了这个问题,并对二次差分进行了检验。此外,采用自回归的不可信滞后模型(ARDL)代替普通最小二乘(OLS)回归。边界检验表明,各变量之间存在长期效应均值协整;因此,家庭消费支出可以用来预测或估计家庭消费与长期贫困的关系。同时,ARDL结果表明,任何回归量对家庭消费支出和贫困的回归都没有短期影响。
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引用次数: 0
Interdisciplinary Research in Public Management: Perspective of Economics and Sociology 公共管理的跨学科研究:经济学和社会学的视角
Pub Date : 2019-03-21 DOI: 10.53935/2641-5313.v2i1.30
H. Kabir, Ziaur Rahman, Shaheen Yusufzada
At present, the study of public administration embodies the integration of social science disciplines. The main purpose of this study is to explore interdisciplinary research in public management by analyzing the theory and practices of economics and sociology. A qualitative method has been employed to obtain the objectives. This study reveals that the diversification of public administration research is a manifestation of the diversity, complexity and comprehensive development in the field of public management. Economics and sociology provide new perspectives and research methods for public administration in different aspects. With the change of the value orientation of national development, the research of public management should also be re-examined.
当前,公共行政研究体现了社会科学学科的融合。本研究的主要目的是通过分析经济学和社会学的理论与实践,探索公共管理的跨学科研究。采用了定性方法来获得目标。研究表明,公共管理研究的多元化是公共管理领域多样性、复杂性和综合性发展的表现。经济学和社会学在不同方面为公共行政研究提供了新的视角和研究方法。随着国家发展价值取向的转变,公共管理的研究也需要重新审视。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing the Impact of Government Regulations on Microfinance Banks (MFBs) Performance 评估政府法规对小额信贷银行(mfb)绩效的影响
Pub Date : 2018-12-18 DOI: 10.53935/2641-5313.v1i2.28
Obadeyi, J.A., O. M.O, Oladejo, K.S.
After several reforms in Nigerian banking sub-sector, the regulatory and supervisory framework policy of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has not adequately improved performance of Microfinance banks (MFBs). In view of this, this paper assessed the impact of government regulations on MFBs performance between 2007- 2016. The paper used secondary source of data by assessing the financial statements of MFBs. A pooled Ordinary Least Square (OLS) technique was used for the analysis of data. The result showed that coefficient values of capitalization (4.64) and reserve (7.21) were positive and consistently associated with higher MFBs performance, while investment in Treasury bill (-4.30) was negative but statistically significant in driving MFBs performance at (P<0.01). The study concluded that regulatory frameworks via strong capitalization and reserves influenced and improved MFBs financial performance.
经过尼日利亚银行业的几次改革,尼日利亚中央银行(CBN)的监管框架政策并没有充分改善小额信贷银行(MFBs)的绩效。鉴于此,本文评估了2007- 2016年政府法规对mfb绩效的影响。本文通过对中小企业财务报表的评估,使用了二级数据来源。采用合并普通最小二乘(OLS)技术对数据进行分析。结果表明,资本化系数值(4.64)和储备系数值(7.21)正相关且与较高的MFBs绩效持续相关,而国库券投资系数值(-4.30)为负但对MFBs绩效的驱动具有统计学意义(P<0.01)。该研究的结论是,通过强大的资本和储备的监管框架影响和改善了小额贷款银行的财务业绩。
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引用次数: 0
Organizational Learning: A Panacea for Workers’ Productivity in the Nigeria Transportation Sector 组织学习:尼日利亚运输部门提高工人生产力的灵丹妙药
Pub Date : 2018-12-14 DOI: 10.53935/2641-5313.v1i2.27
T. F. Buradum, Maru, Godwin Worlu
The transportation sector is one of the major sectors that drive any economy as it conveys man, materials, as well as goods and services from one point to another. This study was conducted to ascertain the influence of organizational learning on workers’ productivity of transport companies in Nigeria. 89 copies of the research instrument were administered, while only 86 were retrieved and analyzed, being 97% response rate. This exercise was carried out with the aid of SPSS using Spearman Rank Order Correlation. And a conclusion was drawn.
交通运输部门是驱动任何经济的主要部门之一,因为它将人、材料、货物和服务从一个地方运送到另一个地方。本研究旨在确定组织学习对尼日利亚运输公司工人生产力的影响。研究工具的89份副本被管理,而只有86份被检索和分析,为97%的回复率。这个练习是在SPSS的帮助下使用Spearman秩序相关进行的。得出了一个结论。
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引用次数: 0
Economic Planning and Human Capital Development in Nigeria 尼日利亚的经济规划和人力资本发展
Pub Date : 2018-12-11 DOI: 10.53935/2641-5313.v1i1.26
E. Brown
This study provides econometrics evidence linking economic planning process to human capital development in Nigeria. The specific objectives focused on the effects of planned investments on education, healthcare delivery and community and social services on human capital development in Nigeria over the period 1990-2016. Data collected from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin were analyzed using Fully Modified Least Squares and Granger Causality test in addition to augmented Dickey Fuller unit root and Johansen-Juselius test. The results of the unit root tests show that only life expectancy is stationary at levels while the other variables in the model become stationary at first difference. The cointegration tests results revealed that the variables in each of the models have long run relationship. The regression result in shows that planned expenditure on education has weak significant positive impact on life expectancy. This finding aligns with the theoretical expectation as economic planning that increases budgetary allocation to the education sector is expected to increase the level human capital of the population and in turn increase their opportunities of living a long and healthy life. The results further show that public investment in the education sector generates positive outcomes on gender parity index for gross enrollment ratio in primary and secondary education in Nigeria. The Granger causality test shows that unidirectional causality runs from public expenditure on social and community services to life expectancy and from public expenditure on education to gender parity index for gross enrollment ratio in primary and secondary education. Therefore, it is recommended that policy makers should ensure that economic planning in Nigeria continues to prioritize medium and long term investments on education in addition to community and social services in order to enhance pace of human development.
本研究为尼日利亚经济规划过程与人力资本发展之间的联系提供了计量经济学证据。具体目标侧重于1990-2016年期间尼日利亚在教育、保健服务以及社区和社会服务方面的计划投资对人力资本发展的影响。采用完全修正最小二乘法和格兰杰因果检验、增广Dickey Fuller单位根检验和Johansen-Juselius检验对尼日利亚中央银行统计公报收集的数据进行分析。单位根检验的结果表明,只有预期寿命在水平上是平稳的,而模型中的其他变量在第一次差异时是平稳的。协整检验结果表明,各模型中的变量具有长期的关系。回归结果表明,计划教育支出对预期寿命有微弱的显著正影响。这一发现与理论预期一致,因为增加教育部门预算拨款的经济规划预计将提高人口的人力资本水平,从而增加他们健康长寿的机会。研究结果进一步表明,教育部门的公共投资对尼日利亚中小学教育毛入学率的性别平等指数产生了积极的影响。格兰杰因果检验表明,单向因果关系从社会和社区服务公共支出到预期寿命,从教育公共支出到中小学教育毛入学率性别均等指数。因此,建议决策者应确保尼日利亚的经济规划在社区和社会服务之外继续优先考虑对教育的中期和长期投资,以加快人类发展的步伐。
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引用次数: 0
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International Journal of Business Management and Finance Research
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