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Modeling Cabbage Production in Malang East Java with GSTAR Approach 用GSTAR方法模拟东爪哇玛琅白菜生产
Muhammad Syahfitra, N. W. S. Wardhani, A. Iriany
Based on the Directorate Report General's Horticulture, the contribution of vegetable horticulture agriculture tends to increase, where the GDP of vegetable horticulture has increased by 9.86%. In 2016, cabbage is a vegetable horticultural commodity that has the highest production amount in Indonesia, and the poor district is one of the major producers of commodities cabbage in eastern Java. Generalized Space-Time Autoregressive (GSTAR) is a multivariate time series model that considers site aspects with heterogeneous location characteristics. The purpose of this study was to model cabbage production in Malang Regency using the GSTAR model. Selection criteria for the best model to use the value of the root mean square error (RMSE) and the value of R The results showed that the GSTAR model (1,2) is the best model for modeling cabbage production and has good forecasting accuracy to predict cabbage production in Malang Regency.
根据总局园艺报告,蔬菜园艺农业的贡献有增加的趋势,其中蔬菜园艺的GDP增长了9.86%。2016年,卷心菜是印尼产量最高的蔬菜园艺商品,贫困地区是爪哇东部商品卷心菜的主要生产地之一。广义时空自回归(GSTAR)模型是一种考虑具有异质区位特征的场地方面的多元时间序列模型。本研究的目的是利用GSTAR模型对玛琅县的白菜生产进行建模。采用均方根误差(RMSE)值和R值作为最佳模型的选择标准。结果表明,GSTAR模型(1,2)是模拟大白菜产量的最佳模型,对麻郎地区大白菜产量有较好的预测精度。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis of Junior High School Student’s Mathematical Reasoning Ability in Solving Non-routine Problems on Material of Two-variable Linear Equation Systems 初中生解非常规问题的数学推理能力分析——关于两变量线性方程组材料的分析
N. Pratiwi, N. Aisyah, E. Susanti, W. Pratiwi
Reasoning ability encourages students to think logically, so it is a very important part in learning process. This qualitative descriptive study aims to determine the mathematical reasoning ability of Junior High School students in solving non-routine problems of the two-variable linear equation systems material. The subjects were 6 students of class VIII.7 SMP Negeri 17 Palembang. Due to Covid-19, the research was conducted online using test and interviews, and analyzed descriptively. The results showed that of the 7 indicators of mathematical reasoning ability used, high-capable subjects fulfill almost all indicators. Indicators are not fulfilled in namely posing an assumption, perform mathematical manipulation, draw conclusions, compile evidence, provide reasons or evidence for the correctness of the solution to problem 1 and find patterns or properties of mathematical phenomena that will be generalized to problem 2. Indicators that are not fulfilled in medium-capable are perform mathematical manipulation, draw conclusions, compile evidence, provide reasons or evidence for the correctness of the solution and find patterns or properties of mathematical phenomena that will be generalized to problem 2. Students with low-capable still not dominant and only permit indicators to present oral, written, picture and diagram math statement and draw conclusions from those statements.
推理能力鼓励学生进行逻辑思考,是学习过程中非常重要的一部分。本定性描述性研究旨在确定初中生在解决双变量线性方程组材料非常规问题时的数学推理能力。研究对象为6名八年级学生。7 SMP Negeri 17 Palembang。由于Covid-19,研究采用在线测试和访谈的方式进行,并进行描述性分析。结果表明,在数学推理能力的7项指标中,高水平被试几乎完成了所有指标。指标不满足于提出假设,进行数学操作,得出结论,编制证据,为问题1的解决方案的正确性提供原因或证据,并找到将推广到问题2的数学现象的模式或性质。中等能力不能完成的指标是进行数学操作,得出结论,编制证据,为解决方案的正确性提供原因或证据,并找到将推广到问题2的数学现象的模式或性质。低能力的学生仍然不占主导地位,只允许指标提出口头、书面、图片和图表的数学陈述,并从中得出结论。
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引用次数: 3
Connecting Effective Mathematics Teaching Practices and Mathematical Practices 连接有效的数学教学实践与数学实践
T. Wilkerson
Learning during the pandemic presents a major challenge for mathematics teachers. In this condition, Teacher must examine effective mathematical teaching practices that support each and every student to develop a deep understanding of mathematics; and developing a positive mathematical identity and strong sense of mathematical agency. This paper discusses how do the eight effective mathematics teaching practices support key mathematical practices essential for students to develop to be successful in mathematics. It has been important to support both preservice and inservice teachers in implementing effective teaching practices by providing opportunities for collaboration and planning, resources for teaching and learning mathematics in new settings, professional development on use of new technologies, ways of addressing effective practices in varied environments, and support in identifying mathematical tasks that would support student development of essential mathematical practices and ensure equitable access to high quality learning
大流行期间的学习对数学教师提出了重大挑战。在这种情况下,教师必须检查有效的数学教学实践,以支持每个学生对数学的深刻理解;培养积极的数学认同感和强烈的数学代理意识。本文讨论了八种有效的数学教学实践如何支持学生在数学上取得成功所必需的关键数学实践。支持职前教师和在职教师实施有效的教学实践是很重要的,方法是提供合作和规划的机会、在新环境中教授和学习数学的资源、使用新技术的专业发展、在不同环境中处理有效实践的方法、在确定数学任务方面提供支持,这些任务将支持学生发展基本的数学实践,并确保公平地获得高质量的学习
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引用次数: 0
Mathematical Modelling of Schistosomiasis Transmission Dynamics in Traditional Cattle Farmer Communities 传统养牛户社区血吸虫病传播动态的数学建模
Wahyudin Nur, Trisilowati, Agus Suryanto, W. M. Kusumawinahyu
In this work, a deterministic mathematical model of schistosomiasis transmission dynamics is discussed. In rural areas, many people work as a cattle farmer. Cattle farmers in endemic areas are very susceptible to schistosoma worm infection. To study the dynamics of schistosomiasis spread in traditional cattle farmer communities, we develop a mathematical model by considering human, cattle, and snail population as well as parasite density in environment. The model is expressed as a system of first order differential equations. Firstly, we verify the non-negativity and boundedness of the solutions of the model. After determining the equilibrium points of the system, we determine the basic reproduction number. Linearization and Routh Hurwitz condition are used to analyze the local stability condition of the disease free equilibrium point. Center manifold theory is used to study the local stability condition of the endemic equilibrium point. We prove global stability condition of the disease free equilibrium point by formulating suitable Lyapunov function and using LaSalle invariance principle. Several numerical simulations are presented. Our results show that the farmer should keep the cattle, water, and food clean. In addition, the farmer should use molluscicide in their farm area and give schistosomiasis drug to the cattle, regularly.
在这项工作中,讨论了血吸虫病传播动力学的确定性数学模型。在农村地区,许多人都是养牛户。流行地区的养牛户非常容易受到血吸虫感染。为了研究传统养牛户社区血吸虫病的传播动态,我们建立了一个考虑人、牛、蜗牛种群以及环境中寄生虫密度的数学模型。该模型表示为一阶微分方程组。首先,我们验证了模型解的非负性和有界性。在确定了系统的平衡点后,确定了系统的基本再生数。利用线性化和Routh Hurwitz条件分析了无病平衡点的局部稳定条件。利用中心流形理论研究了地方性平衡点的局部稳定条件。通过构造合适的Lyapunov函数,利用LaSalle不变性原理证明了无病平衡点的全局稳定条件。给出了几个数值模拟。我们的研究结果表明,农民应该保持牛、水和食物的清洁。此外,农民应定期在其农场地区使用杀螺剂,并给牛服用血吸虫病药物。
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引用次数: 1
The Impact of Using a Single Image in a Representation on a Misconception of Fraction Concept 在表述中使用单一图像对分数概念误解的影响
A. Turidho, Indah Widya Astuti, K. A. Islamirta, Selly Dian Utami Sitio, Y. Maharani, Darmawijoyo, Somakim
This research aims to describe the impact of using a single image in representation on understanding the concept of fractions. The subjects in this study were six students in grades 4-7. The data collection technique used in this research is interviews conducted on research subjects one by one. Students' limitations in understanding the concept of fractions are caused by using a single image in the representation so that students had difficulty dealing with two aspects of the image in the representation, namely the difference in size and shape. The results showed that in comparing two fractions originating from a circle of different sizes, students predominantly assume that the fraction from the largest slice of the circle is the fraction that has the greatest value. There are still students who cannot state a fraction of a part that has a different way of dividing from what they usually encounter. There are still students who are affected that two parts with different shapes have different areas even though the two parts come from a flat building with the same size.
本研究旨在描述使用单一图像表示对理解分数概念的影响。本研究的对象为6名4-7年级的学生。本研究使用的数据收集技术是对研究对象进行逐一访谈。学生对分数概念理解的局限是由于在表征中使用了单一的图像,使得学生难以处理表征中图像的两个方面,即大小和形状的差异。结果表明,在比较来自不同大小圆的两个分数时,学生主要认为来自圆的最大切片的分数具有最大的价值。仍然有学生不能说出与他们通常遇到的部分有不同划分方式的部分的一小部分。仍然有学生受到影响,两个不同形状的部分有不同的面积,即使这两个部分来自一个大小相同的平面建筑。
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引用次数: 1
Analyzing Misconception of Exponent for High School in Makassar 望加锡地区高中对指数的误解分析
St. Nur Humairah Halim, R. S. Mahmud, Sitti Rahmah Tahir, A. Gaffar, Sri Wulandari, Andi Trisnowali
This study aims to analyze the misconceptions experienced by students in exponential material. This research was conducted in Class X IPA 1 SMAN 4 Makassar in the odd semester 2019/2020 academic year. The subjects in this study were three students who were selected based on the type of misconception. This type of research is descriptive qualitative research. The instruments used were diagnostic tests and interview guides. This study analyzed the types of students' misconceptions, namely, classification misconceptions, correlational misconceptions, and theoretical misconceptions. The results of this study indicate that of the three subjects who experience a classification misconception caused by a lack of understanding of mathematical symbols, they rarely ask the teacher. Correlational misconceptions caused by the lack of variety in the questions being worked on, lazy to repeat learning at home. Meanwhile, theoretical misconceptions are caused by a lack of practice in doing questions, embarrassed to ask the
本研究旨在分析学生对指数资料的误解。本研究于2019/2020学年单学期在望加锡IPA 1 SMAN 4班进行。本研究的研究对象是根据误解类型选择的三名学生。这种类型的研究是描述性质的研究。使用的工具是诊断测试和访谈指南。本研究分析了学生误解的类型,即分类误解、相关误解和理论误解。本研究结果显示,在因对数学符号缺乏理解而产生分类误解的三名被试中,他们很少向老师提问。相关的误解造成的缺乏多样性的问题正在研究,懒于重复学习在家里。同时,理论上的误区是由于在做问题时缺乏实践,不好意思提出的
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引用次数: 0
Prediction of Future Insurance Premiums When the Model is Uncertain 模型不确定时的未来保费预测
Tri Andika Julia Putra, D. Lesmana, I. Purnaba
It is an important task for an actuary in determining an appropriate premium price for each customer with different risks and characteristics. The purpose of this study is to determine the best model for pure general insurance premiums and variables that can affect the amount of pure premiums. One of statistical analyzes that can be used to model insurance premiums is Generalized Linear Models (GLM). GLM is an extension of the classic regression model that can accommodate the flexibility of its users to use multiple data distributions, but is limited to the exponential family distribution. In the GLM model the premium is obtained by multiplying the conditional expected value from frequency of claims and cost of claims. Based on the research that has been done, it is found that frequency of claims follows the Poisson distribution. Meanwhile, cost of claim follows the Normal distribution. From the two models, it is found that the variables that affect the pure premium are the type of work, the reason for the claim, the location of residence, the marital status and the class of the customer's vehicle. It indicates that the GLM model is a representative model and useful for the insurance company business.
对于精算师来说,为每个具有不同风险和特征的客户确定合适的保费是一项重要的任务。本研究的目的是确定纯一般保险保费的最佳模型和影响纯保费金额的变量。广义线性模型(GLM)是一种可以用来建立保费模型的统计分析方法。GLM是经典回归模型的扩展,它可以适应用户使用多个数据分布的灵活性,但仅限于指数族分布。在GLM模型中,保费由索赔频率和索赔成本的条件期望值相乘得到。根据已有的研究发现,索赔频率服从泊松分布。同时,索赔费用服从正态分布。从这两个模型中,我们发现影响纯保费的变量是工作类型、索赔原因、居住地、婚姻状况和客户车辆的类别。结果表明,GLM模型具有一定的代表性,对保险公司业务具有一定的借鉴意义。
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引用次数: 0
Mathematical Representation of the Grade 11 of Senior High School Students in Solving Linear Programming Questions Based on David Keirsey’s Personality Type 基于David Keirsey人格类型的高中11年级学生求解线性规划问题的数学表征
D. S. Pambudi, R. P. Murtikusuma, D. Trapsilasiwi, E. Oktavianingtyas, I. Wiliandani, Tiara Prita Ningrum
The aim of this study is to define the student mathematical representation of Grade 11 high school in solving linear programming questions based on David Keirsey’s personality type. This research were analyzed through a qualitative description. The research was conducted at Senior High School 1 Jember. Data is obtained based on questionnaires, linear programming research questions and interviews. Subjects based on the similarity of the linear programming test results of each type of personality. Each personality has two subjects of study. The results revealed that Artisan students used mathematical and visual expression representation forms. The Idealist students used mathematical, visual, and verbal representation forms. The Guardian students used only the representation form for mathematical expression. Whereas Rational students used only the representation form of mathematical and verbal expression.
摘要本研究旨在探讨高二学生在求解线性规划问题时的数学表征,并以David Keirsey的人格类型为基础。本研究通过定性描述进行分析。这项研究是在11月1日的高中进行的。数据通过问卷调查、线性规划研究问题和访谈获得。受试者根据线性规划的相似性对各类型人格进行测试。每个人格都有两个研究对象。结果显示,工匠学生使用数学和视觉表达的表现形式。唯心主义学生使用数学、视觉和口头的表现形式。卫报的学生只使用了数学表达式的表示形式。而理性的学生只使用数学和口头表达的表示形式。
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引用次数: 2
Analysis of Ability for Understanding the Basic Concepts of Probability Theory 概率论基本概念理解能力分析
G. M. Tinungki, B. Nurwahyu
This study aims to analyse the skills to understand mathematical concepts in the Probability Theory subject. As a scientific discipline, Probability Theory is one of the statistics study program subjects that require mathematical skills to learn. One of the skills needed for learning is the skill of understanding mathematical concepts. The analysis of skills in understanding mathematical concepts in the Probability Theory course shows that students still have difficulty checking the truth and writing the concepts used in each discussion of the material. This is one of the factors that make students' skills to understand mathematical concepts not good. Based on this research, it appears that students' mathematical understanding skills in the Probability Theory course are still lacking. Understanding the concept of statistics is not currently apparent in students when studying the Probability Theory. They have not been able to optimize all their mathematical abilities in learning, so they tend to give up on doing tasks when experiencing difficulties. This research is expected to be a reference and discourse for practitioners of mathematics education to improve the ability to understand the basic concepts of Probability Theory.
本研究旨在分析概率论科目中理解数学概念的技巧。概率论作为一门科学学科,是需要数学技能学习的统计学研究项目科目之一。学习所需的技能之一是理解数学概念的技能。概率论课程中理解数学概念的技能分析表明,学生在检查真理和写出每次讨论材料中使用的概念方面仍然存在困难。这是导致学生对数学概念理解能力不好的因素之一。基于本研究,概率论课程中学生的数学理解能力还存在不足。在学习概率论时,学生对统计概念的理解目前并不明显。他们无法在学习中优化自己所有的数学能力,所以当遇到困难时,他们往往会放弃做任务。本研究可望为数学教育实践者提高对概率论基本概念的理解能力提供参考与论述。
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引用次数: 0
Experimentation of Brain Based Learning Model Based on Lesson Study Learning Community Towards Students’ Reasoning Ability on Sequences and Series Material 基于课程研究学习共同体的基于脑的学习模式对学生序列和系列材料推理能力的实验
Hobri, E. Oktavianingtyas, D. Trapsilasiwi, R. P. Murtikusuma, D. S. Pambudi, Noor Amalia
The purpose of this research is to know How to process of teaching learning using Brain Based Learning which based on Lesson Study Learning Community as well the effect on students’ reasoning abilities on the material sequences and number series at SMAN 5 Jember. The kind experiment that is used is mixed methods or methods that combine quantitative and qualitative methods, which refer to knowing whether there is an effect of students’ reasoning abilities. The experiment of this research is Quasi Experiment the population being experiment is the students of XI MIPA, then a sample was taken so that XI MIPA 1 was the experimental class and class XI MIPA 2 was the control class. The techniques collection data is used are test, observation, and interview. The result of t independent shows T table < Tvalue, with Tvalue = 3.204 and Ttable = 2.000, so that when H0 is refused H1 is accepted. It is proved that the positive influence from Brain Based Learning applied based on Lesson Study Learning Community with the capability of students’ reasoning skills on sequence and series materials.
本研究的目的是了解如何运用基于“课研学习共同体”的“脑基学习”来进行教学学习,以及在sman5月的教材序列和数列上对学生推理能力的影响。所采用的实验类型是混合方法或定量与定性相结合的方法,是指了解学生的推理能力是否有影响。收集数据的方法主要有测试法、观察法和访谈法。t独立的结果为t table < Tvalue, Tvalue = 3.204, Ttable = 2.000,因此当拒绝H0时,接受H1。研究结果表明,基于“课研学习共同体”的脑基学习模式对提高学生对序列和序列材料的推理能力具有积极的影响。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Mathematics and Mathematics Education (ICMMEd 2020)
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