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Analysis Determinant of Profitability and Their Effect on The Value of Automotive Companies Listed on IDX IDX上市汽车公司盈利能力的决定因素及其对价值的影响分析
Pub Date : 2022-09-05 DOI: 10.47747/ijfr.v3i3.806
S. Sulistiyani, Salim M Noor
This study aims to analyze the effect of financial performance on firm value with profitability as an intervening variable. The population in this study are automotive companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the 2015-2019 period. The financial performance used in this study is the Dept to Equity (DER), Current Ratio (CR), and company size. The research data is secondary data with an observation period of 5 years. The sampling method used is purposive sampling, where from all automotive companies listed on the IDX selected based on certain criteria. Samples that meet the criteria are 8 companies. The data analysis method used is panel data regression. The results showed that Fixed Effect is the best model. The results of the partial test (t test) of the DER ratio have a negative and significant effect on profitability, CR and firm size have no effect on profitability, while profitability on firm value has no significant effect. Partially DER has a positive effect on firm value, CR and firm size have no significant effect on firm value. The role of profitability as an intervening variable is very important in increasing the effect of DER, CR, and firm size on firm value. The results of the Prob (F-statistic) are 0.000 < 0.005, meaning that together this study which consists of DER, CR, and firm size has a positive and significant effect on firm value.
本研究以盈利能力为中介变量,分析财务绩效对企业价值的影响。本研究中的人口是2015-2019年期间在印度尼西亚证券交易所上市的汽车公司。本研究中使用的财务绩效是Dept to Equity (DER), Current Ratio (CR)和公司规模。研究数据为二次数据,观察期为5年。使用的抽样方法是有目的抽样,即根据一定的标准从IDX上列出的所有汽车公司中选择。符合标准的样本有8家。使用的数据分析方法是面板数据回归。结果表明,固定效应模型是最佳模型。DER比率的部分检验(t检验)结果对盈利能力有显著负向影响,CR和企业规模对盈利能力没有影响,而盈利能力对企业价值没有显著影响。DER对企业价值有部分正向影响,CR和企业规模对企业价值无显著影响。盈利能力作为一个中介变量的作用在增加DER、CR和企业规模对企业价值的影响中是非常重要的。Prob (f统计量)的结果为0.000 < 0.005,这意味着这个由DER、CR和企业规模组成的研究对企业价值有显著的正向影响。
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引用次数: 1
Homo-Hetero Pairing Regression Model: An Econometric Predictive Model of Homo Paired Data 同性-异性配对回归模型:同性配对数据的计量经济学预测模型
Pub Date : 2022-07-31 DOI: 10.47747/ijfr.v3i2.792
Ntogwa N. Bundala
The study aimed to examine the technical and fundamental hypotheses in NYSE, NASDAQ and S&P 500 stock exchange markets. The main determinants (variables) that were examined were stock trading volumes, closing stock prices and stock information available in the stock exchange market. The 240 days, 197 days and 253 days data of closing stock prices and trading volumes at NYSE, S&P500 and NASDAQ stock exchange markets were systematically collected from June 2021 to June 2022. The data was analysed by using the Homo-Hetero Pairing (HHP) Regression Model. This model was developed to detect the linear and non-linear behaviour of data. The study evidenced that both the technical and fundamental hypotheses in  NYSE, S&P500 and NASDAQ stock exchange markets are defined by the inverse and S-curved models in two distinctive pairing classes called the positive-positive pairing (PPP) class and the negative-positive pairing (NPP) class. The study concluded that the optimal prediction of the stock price or return is achieved by the fundamentalists in the stock exchange markets. The study recommends that stock investors should priorities the use of the fundamental hypothesis to make their portfolio investment decision. Moreover, the study recommends the application of the HHP regression model in financial markets, economics, psychology, sociology, and medicine studies.  In addition, the HHP regression model is recommended for the prediction of water waves in the investigation of hydrodynamic and erosion-accretion processes
本研究旨在检验纽约证券交易所、纳斯达克和标准普尔500指数股票交易所市场的技术和基本假设。研究的主要决定因素(变量)是股票交易量、收盘价和证券交易所市场上可用的股票信息。系统采集2021年6月至2022年6月期间纽约证券交易所、标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克证券交易所240天、197天和253天的收盘股价和成交量数据。采用异质配对(HHP)回归模型对数据进行分析。这个模型是用来检测数据的线性和非线性行为的。研究证明,纽约证券交易所、标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克证券交易所市场的技术假设和基本假设都是由两种不同配对类别的逆模型和s曲线模型定义的,即正负配对(PPP)类和正负配对(NPP)类。本研究的结论是,股票市场上的基本面主义者对股票价格或收益的预测是最优的。研究建议,股票投资者应优先使用基本假设进行组合投资决策。此外,本研究建议将HHP回归模型应用于金融市场、经济学、心理学、社会学和医学研究。此外,在水动力和冲淤过程的研究中,推荐了HHP回归模型用于水波的预测
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引用次数: 0
Deep learning on SPY stock prices using improved multi-head LSTM 基于改进多头LSTM的SPY股票价格深度学习
Pub Date : 2022-07-29 DOI: 10.47747/ijfr.v3i2.785
Yulong Lian
Stock price prediction has been a widely pursued topic by researchers in recent years due to the great impact that significant research can have on the economy. LSTM is commonly used for stock price prediction as it has strong time series predictive capabilities. However, it is limited by its loss function, which only takes one parameter (predicted stock price) into account. This paper proposes a multivariate multi-step, vector output predictive model using LSTM, with both the stock price and the relative return as inputs of the neural network. Furthermore, a novel loss function that combines both the standard mean squared error, and the relative return mean squared error to hone accuracy is introduced. The model’s predictive capabilities are demonstrated on the S&P 500 Index. This improved LSTM model reaches a test MSE of 0.0076, which is a result that is significantly stronger than results demonstrated by standard LSTM stock prediction networks, and which outperforms most of the LSTM models mentioned in the literature.
近年来,由于重大研究对经济的影响很大,股票价格预测一直是研究人员广泛关注的话题。LSTM具有较强的时间序列预测能力,常用于股票价格预测。然而,它受到损失函数的限制,损失函数只考虑一个参数(预测股价)。本文以股票价格和相对收益作为神经网络的输入,提出了一种基于LSTM的多元多步矢量输出预测模型。在此基础上,提出了一种结合标准均方误差和相对回归均方误差的损失函数。该模型的预测能力在标准普尔500指数上得到了验证。该改进的LSTM模型的检验MSE为0.0076,这一结果明显强于标准LSTM股票预测网络的结果,并且优于文献中提到的大多数LSTM模型。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis of Output and Employment of Trade in India: A Case of rising Capital Intensity and Its Implications 印度贸易产出与就业分析:一个资本密集度上升的案例及其启示
Pub Date : 2022-07-28 DOI: 10.47747/ijfr.v3i2.759
D. Prakash
Trade is by far labour-intensive sector. The sector is dominated by unorganized activities. Though, post-1990s, the share of organized sector has been rising but at slow pace.  Till 2003-04, the sector has grown well as a consequence, output has risen and concomitant increase in the share of employment has been noticed. From 2003-04 onwards a significant increase in capital intensity has been noticed which increased the productivity of the sector. Therefore, contribution of the sector in employment generation has decimated, despite the fact that there was no decline in output. Rise in capital intensity is attributed to formalisation of the sector and resultant increase in investment.
贸易是劳动密集型行业。该部门由无组织的活动主导。虽然90年代后,有组织部门的份额一直在上升,但速度缓慢。直到2003-04年,该行业增长良好,产出上升,就业份额随之增加。从2003-04年开始,资本密集度显著提高,提高了该部门的生产率。因此,尽管产出没有下降,但该部门在创造就业方面的贡献却大大减少。资本密集度的上升归因于该部门的正规化以及由此导致的投资增加。
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引用次数: 0
Capital Structure and Performance of Non-Financial Firms in Sub-Sahara Africa 撒哈拉以南非洲非金融企业的资本结构与绩效
Pub Date : 2022-03-31 DOI: 10.47747/ijfr.v3i1.682
E. I. Evbayiro-Osagie, Iyobo Best Enadeghe
The study examines the impact of capital structure on return-on-assets (ROA) performance of non-financial firms in Sub-Sahara Africa for a period of nine (9) years (2012-2020). A total of forty (40) non-financial firms were studied using their capital structure variables of long term debt to equity (LTDQ), total debt (TD), total debt to equity (TDQ), and total debt to total assets (TDTA) as well as their ROA performance. The panel data analysis technique was employed. It was found that LTDQ, TD and TDQ have positive impact on ROA performance; while TDTA has a negative impact on ROA performance, and all variables were significant at 1 percent level. The study recommends that, since long term debt to equity strongly explain corporate performance in the Sub-Saharan African Countries, management should sustain their current policies and should also be very sensitive in determining the appropriate amount of long term debt that ought to be included in their capital structure build up.
该研究考察了撒哈拉以南非洲非金融公司资本结构对资产回报率(ROA)绩效的影响,为期九(9)年(2012-2020)。我们对40家非金融企业进行了资本结构变量的研究,这些资本结构变量包括长期债务股本比(LTDQ)、总债务(TD)、总债务股本比(TDQ)、总债务总资产比(TDTA)以及它们的ROA绩效。采用面板数据分析技术。研究发现,LTDQ、TD和TDQ对ROA绩效有正向影响;而TDTA对ROA表现有负向影响,且所有变量在1%水平下均显著。研究报告建议,由于长期债务对股权的比率是撒哈拉以南非洲国家公司业绩的有力解释,管理部门应维持其现行政策,并应非常敏感地确定应包括在其资本结构建设中的长期债务的适当数额。
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引用次数: 2
Good Corporate Governance in Mediating the Effects of Intellectual Capital and CSR on Company Performance: Empirical on BUMN in Indonesia 良好的公司治理在智力资本和企业社会责任对公司绩效的中介作用:印度尼西亚的实证研究
Pub Date : 2022-03-31 DOI: 10.47747/ijfr.v3i1.683
Brian Salviantono, A. Paminto, Yana Ulfah
Finance is a vital aspect for companies, especially State-Owned Enterprise (BUMN). In Indonesia, the trend of financial markets determines the company’s profit. It oriented this study to get empirical evidence about the effect between intellectual capital and corporate social responsibility (CSR) on company performance, where the relationship is determined by good corporate governance (GCG) which acts as a moderator for BUMN companies. The sample includes 13 state-owned companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) through a purposive sampling stage. Interpreting the data using the model is the SEM structural equation method (SEM) for the period 2012-2020. The statistical software is supported by SmartPLS. The results of the analysis conclude that intellectual capital and CSR have a significant effect on company performance. Then, GCG has no significant effect on the relationship between intellectual capital and company performance. Interestingly, GCG also does not significantly moderate the relationship between CSR and company performance. The limitations of the study need to be discussed.
财务是企业,特别是国有企业的一个重要方面。在印尼,金融市场的走势决定了公司的利润。本研究旨在获得关于智力资本和企业社会责任(CSR)对公司绩效影响的实证证据,其中这种关系是由良好的公司治理(GCG)决定的,而GCG是BUMN公司的调节因子。样本包括13家在印尼证券交易所(IDX)上市的国有企业。使用该模型解释2012-2020年期间的数据是SEM结构方程方法(SEM)。SmartPLS支持统计软件。分析结果表明,智力资本和企业社会责任对公司绩效有显著影响。那么,GCG对智力资本与公司绩效之间的关系没有显著影响。有趣的是,GCG也没有显著调节企业社会责任与公司绩效之间的关系。这项研究的局限性需要讨论。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis of Bilateral Trade between India & China Since 2001 2001年以来印度与中国双边贸易分析
Pub Date : 2022-03-30 DOI: 10.47747/ijfr.v3i1.641
M. H. Ahmadi
This research analyzes the existing bi-lateral trade patterns between India and China with a view to locate in the development context. It was essential to analyze the data since 2000 after implementing economic reforms in both countries. This research attempts to analyze the bilateral trade relation between these two countries, and also, focus on strategic frameworks. For determining the export performance, Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) method is applied. This study also recommends that trade balance is possible between India and China through making the right policies.
本研究分析了印度和中国之间现有的双边贸易模式,并将其定位于发展背景中。分析两国实施经济改革后的2000年以来的数据是必要的。本研究试图分析两国之间的双边贸易关系,并将重点放在战略框架上。为了确定出口绩效,采用了显示对称比较优势(RSCA)方法。该研究还建议,通过制定正确的政策,印度和中国之间的贸易平衡是可能的。
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引用次数: 0
Dividend Policy Determinants and Stock Price Volatility in Selected African Stock Markets 非洲股票市场股利政策决定因素与股价波动
Pub Date : 2022-03-30 DOI: 10.47747/ijfr.v3i1.659
Mayowa Gabriel Ajao, Fredrick Edosa Robinson
The study examined the impact of dividend policy determinants on stock price volatility in Sub Sahara Africa. Three (3) economies (Nigeria, Kenya and South Africa) were selected from among the 51 economies in the region, and data spanning 9 years (2011-2019) were obtained and subjected to econometric analyses. The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedacity (GARCH) was used to ascertain and generate the volatility properties of the stock prices, while the panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique was used to capture the relationship between dividend policy determinants and stock price volatility. The independent variables analyzed in this study are leverage (LEV), firm size (FSIZE), dividend yield (DY), earnings per share (EPS) and dividend payout (DPO) while the dependent variable was the volatility in stock price (SPV). Findings show that all of the variables considered have varying degree of relationships with stock price volatility both in the long run and short run in the three countries. The pooled result indicated that DPO, LEV, FSIZE, DY and EPS had a significant relationship with stock price volatility within the study period in the long run but no short run relationship could be confirmed for the combined samples. The study concluded that dividend payout, dividend yield and earnings per share are significant factors that can be used for predicting the volatile movement in stock price in the African stock markets. The study recommended that dividend payment should be consistent and smoothed to disrupt volatility of stock prices since dividend payment is found to be significant determinant of stock price volatility.
该研究考察了股息政策决定因素对撒哈拉以南非洲股票价格波动的影响。从该地区的51个经济体中选择了三(3)个经济体(尼日利亚、肯尼亚和南非),获得了9年(2011-2019年)的数据,并进行了计量经济学分析。采用广义自回归条件异方差法(GARCH)确定和生成股价波动特性,采用面板自回归分布滞后法(ARDL)捕捉股利政策决定因素与股价波动之间的关系。本研究分析的自变量为杠杆率(LEV)、企业规模(FSIZE)、股息收益率(DY)、每股收益(EPS)和股息支付(DPO),因变量为股价波动率(SPV)。研究结果表明,所有考虑的变量在三个国家的长期和短期都与股价波动有不同程度的关系。汇总结果表明,长期来看,DPO、LEV、FSIZE、DY和EPS与研究期内股票价格波动之间存在显著的相关关系,但组合样本在短期内不存在相关关系。研究得出结论,股息支付、股息收益率和每股收益是预测非洲股票市场股价波动的重要因素。由于股利支付是股价波动的重要决定因素,研究建议股利支付应保持一致和平滑,以干扰股价波动。
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引用次数: 2
Impact of Non-Oil Exports on Balance of Payment Disequilibrium in Nigeria 非石油出口对尼日利亚国际收支不平衡的影响
Pub Date : 2022-03-05 DOI: 10.47747/ijfr.v3i1.585
P. Adeyemi, Aladesanmi Kayode Adewumi
The over-reliance on oil export revenue with little attention to non-oil export has subjected the Nigerian economy to recurring adverse external shocks which further aggravate the problem of balance of payment deficit in Nigeria. Therefore, study set out to examine the impact of non-oil exports on balance of payment disequilibrium in Nigeria. The data used for this study is secondary in nature and it spans from 1970 to 2018. The study employed econometric tools of ARDL Cointegration analysis and ARDL Error Correction Model to explore the long run relationship and the impact of non-oil exports on balance of payment disequilibrium respectively. The result of Wald bound test revealed that there is existence of co-movement between non-oil exports and balance of payment while long run ARDL Error Correction Model results showed that non-oil export has significant negative impact on balance of payment disequilibrium. In the same vein, inflation and interest rate also have negative impact on balance of payment disequilibrium but interest rate is insignificant.  Findings from the study also exhibited positive relationship between exchange rate, trade openness and balance of payment. However, the positive impact of exchange rate on balance of payment is significant while that of trade openness is not significant. The study, thus concluded based on the findings that the non-oil export has not been contributing positively to improve the balance of payment position in Nigeria. In line with these findings, the study recommended that government should devise plans and strategies of boost the non-oil export sectors such as agricultural, manufacturing, solid minerals and service sectors in order to build virile and strong non-oil export sectors that can achieve favourable balance of payment. Moreover, the citizens of Nigeria should be motivated by one way or the others to have a taste for locally produced goods.
过度依赖石油出口收入而不重视非石油出口,使尼日利亚经济经常受到不利的外部冲击,这进一步加剧了尼日利亚的国际收支赤字问题。因此,研究开始审查非石油出口对尼日利亚国际收支不平衡的影响。本研究使用的数据是次要的,从1970年到2018年。本研究采用计量经济学工具ARDL协整分析和ARDL误差修正模型,分别探讨了非石油出口对国际收支不平衡的长期关系和影响。沃尔德边界检验结果显示,非石油出口与国际收支之间存在共动关系,而长期ARDL误差修正模型结果显示,非石油出口对国际收支不平衡具有显著的负向影响。同样,通货膨胀和利率对国际收支不平衡也有负向影响,但利率不显著。研究结果还表明,汇率、贸易开放程度和国际收支之间存在正相关关系。然而,汇率对国际收支的正向影响显著,而贸易开放度的正向影响不显著。因此,这项研究的结论是,非石油出口没有对改善尼日利亚的国际收支状况作出积极贡献。根据这些发现,该研究建议政府制定计划和战略,促进非石油出口部门,如农业、制造业、固体矿产和服务部门,以建立有活力和强大的非石油出口部门,从而实现有利的国际收支平衡。此外,尼日利亚公民应该以这样或那样的方式来激励他们品尝当地生产的商品。
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引用次数: 0
Obstacles of Implementing Industry 4.0 in Nepalese Industries and Way-Forward 尼泊尔工业实施工业4.0的障碍及未来路向
Pub Date : 2022-02-16 DOI: 10.47747/ijfr.v2i4.488
Niranjan Devkota, Sharad Rajbhandari, U. Poudel, S. Parajuli
Industry 4.0 is buzzword in recent years and has become a topic of growing importance. It is a new technical framework that has been widely debated and studied and is likely to eventually constitute a fourth industrial revolution because it provides significant progress relevant to intelligent and potential industries in the market. As Nepal has introduced open policies for improving trade conditions in the mid-1980s, industries have to be competitive and capable enough to sustain themselves in such open policies. Such, dependencies can be minimize, and could only be possible, through the increasing the competitiveness of Nepalese industries with the help of use of new technologies. In such context, Nepalese industrial readiness for industry 4.0 is important topic to discuss. This study aims to identify the obstacles of implementing industry 4.0 in Nepalese Industries lies within 3 industrial estates of Kathmandu Valley i.e. Balaju, Patan and Bhaktapur industrial estates. Data has collected data from all 287 running industry from all three industrial estates with the help of questionnaire through respondent interview using KoBo Collect Toolbox. Our study finds that half of the industries (49%) face hurdles while adopting new technologies. Among them, the major hurdles are lack of infrastructure, lack of skilled manpower, lack of capital, poor implementation of policies. Among two third of the respondents think obstacles in implementing industry 4.0 is manageable. Political support, improvement in implementation mechanism and long term strategy are key factors that support industries to invest in new innovative technologies.
工业4.0是近年来的流行语,并已成为一个越来越重要的话题。这是一个新的技术框架,已经被广泛讨论和研究,并可能最终构成第四次工业革命,因为它提供了与市场上的智能和潜在行业相关的重大进展。由于尼泊尔在1980年代中期采取了改善贸易条件的开放政策,工业必须具有竞争力,并有足够的能力在这种开放政策中维持自己。这种依赖可以减少,而且只有通过在使用新技术的帮助下提高尼泊尔工业的竞争力才能做到这一点。在这种背景下,尼泊尔为工业4.0做好准备是一个重要的讨论话题。本研究旨在确定尼泊尔工业实施工业4.0的障碍,这些障碍位于加德满都谷地的3个工业区,即Balaju, Patan和Bhaktapur工业区。数据通过问卷调查的方式,使用KoBo Collect Toolbox对三个工业区的287个运行行业进行了数据收集。我们的研究发现,一半的行业(49%)在采用新技术时面临障碍。其中,主要障碍是缺乏基础设施、缺乏熟练人力、缺乏资金、政策执行不力。三分之二的受访者认为实施工业4.0的障碍是可控的。政策支持、实施机制完善和长期战略是支持产业投资创新新技术的关键因素。
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引用次数: 0
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International Journal of Finance Research
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