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The Impact of Climate Change on Russian Agriculture and Implications for Global Food Security 气候变化对俄罗斯农业的影响及其对全球粮食安全的影响
Pub Date : 2022-08-26 DOI: 10.54175/hsustain1030014
S. Wegren
Although Russia’s grain growing regions have experienced episodic droughts, the financial impact of climate change has to date been modest when measured in terms of value of production lost. As industrial agriculture continues to emit greenhouse gases, the impact of climate change will intensify, making Russia’s southern regions drier and hotter, and potentially forcing a structural shift in production northward, an event that will lead to lower yields and grain output. The sustainable sector in Russia’s agricultural system is not able to compensate for lower grain output in the south, nor is it able to feed the nation or ensure food security across the full spectrum of commodities that consumers expect. The prospect of Russia as a declining grain power impacts the dozens of nations that import Russian grain, most notably authoritarian regimes in the Middle East.
尽管俄罗斯的粮食种植区经历了间歇性的干旱,但以生产损失的价值来衡量,气候变化对经济的影响迄今为止是温和的。随着工业化农业继续排放温室气体,气候变化的影响将加剧,使俄罗斯南部地区变得更加干燥和炎热,并可能迫使生产结构向北转移,这将导致产量和粮食产量下降。俄罗斯农业系统中的可持续部门无法弥补南方粮食产量下降的影响,也无法养活全国人民,或确保消费者所期望的各类商品的粮食安全。俄罗斯作为粮食大国日益衰落的前景影响了数十个进口俄罗斯粮食的国家,尤其是中东的独裁政权。
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引用次数: 1
Annual Trends of Soil Moisture and Rainfall Flux in an Arid Climate Using Remote Sensing Data 基于遥感数据的干旱气候下土壤水分和降雨通量的年变化趋势
Pub Date : 2022-08-18 DOI: 10.54175/hsustain1030013
M. Valipour, Helaleh Khoshkam, S. Bateni, E. Heggy
The water crisis is still a major issue in Qatar. Seawater desalination has been strongly implemented in the Persian Gulf region. However, it is costly and there is corrosion in piping materials and other equipment. Hence, there is a vital need to detect groundwater resources in Qatar. Various factors affect the variability of groundwater in Qatar including hydrogeological aspects, climate change, drawdown and abstraction, rainwater harvesting, desertification, and population growth. In this study, we employ the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS) to monitor annual variations of soil moisture (SM) in the depth of 1–2 m (as an indicator of groundwater) and rainfall flux (RF) from 1982 to 2019. The results show that SM and RF anomalies were positive from 1982 to 2000 (except 1992). In contrast, these anomalies became negative during 2001–2019 (expect 2001 and 2018), implying the drawdown of groundwater resources. Drier years (i.e., negative RF anomaly) in the recent 19 years (2001–2019) reduced SM and led to a negative SM anomaly. The Mukaynis and Wadi Jallal regions (located in Al Rayyan and Al Wakrah municipalities, respectively) had the highest RF and SM from 1982 to 2019. The center-pivot irrigation systems close to the Mukaynis and Wadi Jallal regions indicate their accessibility to groundwater resources in Qatar. Moreover, these regions have the lowest risk of salinization and groundwater vulnerability. In addition, annual trends of groundwater storage (GWS) retrieved from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) from 2003 to 2019 have been presented. This study is beneficial for detecting and monitoring groundwater resources for the sustainable management of water resources in arid environments.
水危机仍然是卡塔尔的一个主要问题。海水淡化在波斯湾地区得到大力实施。然而,它是昂贵的,并且在管道材料和其他设备中存在腐蚀。因此,非常需要探测卡塔尔的地下水资源。影响卡塔尔地下水变化的因素多种多样,包括水文地质方面、气候变化、降水和抽取、雨水收集、荒漠化和人口增长。本研究利用饥荒预警系统网络(FEWS NET)土地数据同化系统(FLDAS)监测1982 - 2019年1 ~ 2 m深度土壤水分(SM)(作为地下水指标)和降雨通量(RF)的年变化。结果表明:1982 ~ 2000年(1992年除外),SM和RF均为正异常。相比之下,这些异常在2001 - 2019年期间变为负值(预计2001年和2018年),这意味着地下水资源的减少。近19年(2001-2019)的干旱年份(即负RF异常)减少了SM,导致了负SM异常。Mukaynis和Wadi Jallal地区(分别位于Al Rayyan和Al Wakrah市)在1982年至2019年期间的RF和SM最高。靠近Mukaynis和Wadi Jallal地区的中心支点灌溉系统表明卡塔尔地下水资源的可及性。此外,这些地区盐渍化和地下水脆弱性的风险最低。此外,还介绍了2003 - 2019年重力恢复与气候试验(GRACE)反演的地下水储量(GWS)的年变化趋势。该研究有助于干旱环境下地下水资源的探测和监测,为水资源的可持续管理提供依据。
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引用次数: 2
Implications of Non-technical Factors for Off-grid Electrification Initiatives in Cameroon: A Review of the Esaghem Village Solar PV Project 非技术因素对喀麦隆离网电气化倡议的影响:对Esaghem村太阳能光伏项目的审查
Pub Date : 2022-08-08 DOI: 10.54175/hsustain1030012
A. Njoh, Ijang B. Ngyah-Etchutambe, Fri C. Soh-Agwetang, Pascar T. Tah, Mah O. Tarke, F. J. Asah
Ensuring access to clean energy for all—Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) #7—remains one of the most elusive SDGs in developing countries. This study reviews efforts to meet this goal in a developing community, namely Esaghem Village, Manyu Division in Cameroon. The efforts involved the use of a micro-off-grid solar PV system. The study employed primary data collected in-situ and from the project documents, and secondary data from electronic as well as conventional sources. The review is intended to highlight the impact of political, eco-nomic, social, technological, ecological, cultural and historical (PESTECH) factors on renew-able energy (RE) initiatives in a developing country. These are important but oft-ignored historio-cultural factors in the energy domain. The review reveals how one feature of indigenous African tradition, namely the self-help ethos can be harnessed to improve clean energy access in a developing country. It also showed how factors commonly associated with developing countries such as war, administrative centralization, bureaucratic corruption and ineptitude as well as poverty, thwart RE initiatives. The review underscores the importance of non-technical dimensions of RE projects and holds many lessons for the development, manage-ment and sustainability of such projects in developing countries writ large.
确保所有人都能获得清洁能源——可持续发展目标#7——仍然是发展中国家最难实现的可持续发展目标之一。本研究回顾了在一个发展中社区,即喀麦隆Manyu省Esaghem村为实现这一目标所做的努力。这些努力包括使用微型离网太阳能光伏系统。该研究采用了从现场和项目文件中收集的主要数据,以及从电子和传统来源获得的次要数据。该审查旨在突出政治、经济、社会、技术、生态、文化和历史(PESTECH)因素对发展中国家可再生能源(RE)倡议的影响。在能源领域,这些都是重要但经常被忽视的历史文化因素。这篇综述揭示了如何利用非洲土著传统的一个特点,即自助精神来改善发展中国家的清洁能源获取。它还表明,战争、行政集权、官僚腐败、无能以及贫困等通常与发展中国家相关的因素如何阻碍可再生能源倡议。审查强调了可再生能源项目的非技术层面的重要性,并为发展中国家这类项目的发展、管理和可持续性提供了许多经验教训。
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引用次数: 0
A Novel Generalised Model for Residential Energy Management System 住宅能源管理系统的一种新型广义模型
Pub Date : 2022-07-11 DOI: 10.54175/hsustain1030011
Peter Jean‐Paul, T. Lie, T. Anderson, B. Vallès
Disaggregated data is often used to model the cost-benefit of residential energy management systems. However, obtaining such data is time-intensive and monetarily expensive. This hinders the depth of analysis that can be done on these systems and negatively influences their large-scale uptake. This study proposes a novel generalised model of these systems that uses smart meter load profile data to model their cost-benefit. Using two years of half-hourly electricity consumption data from 5379 households in London, the model was used to examine how sociodemographic, tariff structures, and the choice of operational objectives of these systems, interact to influence their cost-benefit. The results showed that the proposed model produced reliable cost-benefit results within what is normally obtained in literature. The model demonstrated that applying one set of objectives to different customers leads to an inequitable distribution in benefits; rather, an optimal set of objectives for a given customer under a specific tariff structure can be found to produce a more equitable distribution in benefits across all customers. The proposed model is replicable and uses data that can be obtained easily and cheaply from smart meters, making it versatile for large-scale cost-benefit analysis by any electricity retailer.
分类数据通常用于住宅能源管理系统的成本效益建模。然而,获得这样的数据既费时又昂贵。这阻碍了对这些系统进行深入分析,并对它们的大规模吸收产生了负面影响。本研究提出了这些系统的一种新的通用模型,该模型使用智能电表负载剖面数据来模拟其成本效益。使用来自伦敦5379个家庭的两年半小时电力消耗数据,该模型用于检查这些系统的社会人口,关税结构和运营目标的选择如何相互作用以影响其成本效益。结果表明,所提出的模型产生了可靠的成本效益结果在什么是通常在文献中获得。该模型表明,对不同客户采用同一套目标会导致利益分配不公平;相反,在特定的关税结构下,可以找到一组针对特定客户的最优目标,以便在所有客户之间实现更公平的利益分配。所提出的模型是可复制的,并且使用的数据可以从智能电表中轻松廉价地获得,使其适用于任何电力零售商的大规模成本效益分析。
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引用次数: 0
Commentary: Colonialist Values in Animal Crossing and Their Implications for Conservation
Pub Date : 2022-07-08 DOI: 10.54175/hsustain1030010
A. Smith
In the Nintendo game Animal Crossing: New Horizons, players move to an uninhabited island and quickly become instrumental to the naming, aesthetic development, and biodiversity of the island. In some ways, the game can foster a love for and curiosity about nature. In other ways, the game reinforces harmful colonialist values and attitudes that are ultimately an obstacle to conservation in the real world. Here I critique the game values relevant to conservation, both the values that benefit and the values that hinder conservation. I discuss possibilities for a future version of the game that reinforces values better aligned with conservation.
在某些方面,游戏可以培养对自然的热爱和好奇心。在其他方面,游戏强化了有害的殖民主义价值观和态度,最终成为现实世界中保护的障碍。在此,我将批判与保护相关的游戏价值观,包括有利于保护的价值观和阻碍保护的价值观。我讨论了游戏未来版本的可能性,即强化与保护相一致的价值观。
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引用次数: 0
Making Asian Cities Greener: A Tool to Measure Environmental Performance Over Time and a Method to Implement a Green City Action Plan 使亚洲城市更加绿色:一种衡量长期环境绩效的工具和实施绿色城市行动计划的方法
Pub Date : 2022-07-07 DOI: 10.54175/hsustain1030009
O. Brilhante, Julia Skinner
This paper uses the IHS Green City Conceptual Framework (IHS-GCCF) to present and discuss the development and application of a tool to measure Environmental Performance (EP) over time applied to ten Asian cities and a method using these results to implement a Green City Action Plan (GCAP) applied to the city of Manila. The tool measures EP over time and helps to explain possible factors contributing to the variation of the EPs in the studied time. The GCAP uses the EP results to develop a green city action plan to improve the current EP for a given period. Both tool and method fulfil gaps found in the green city literature, contain innovative approaches, and help cities to measure and plan improvements in their current EP. By applying the EP tool to ten Asian cities in two periods (2007–2009 and 2015–2018), the paper shows that Singapore and Hong Kong had the highest EPs and Bangalore had the lowest. Implementation of water management and climate change strategies are some factors explaining the improvement in Hong Kong’s EP. A strong increase in population size is behind the EP reduction in Bangalore. The Manila GCAP proposes to improve the current EP of the city from 15.43 to 17.41 in twelve years.
本文使用IHS绿色城市概念框架(IHS- gccf)来介绍和讨论一种工具的开发和应用,该工具用于衡量十个亚洲城市的长期环境绩效(EP),并使用这些结果来实施适用于马尼拉市的绿色城市行动计划(GCAP)。该工具随时间测量EP,并有助于解释在研究时间内导致EP变化的可能因素。GCAP利用环境保护结果制定绿色城市行动计划,以在特定时期内改善当前的环境保护。这两种工具和方法都填补了绿色城市文献中的空白,包含了创新的方法,并帮助城市衡量和规划当前环境保护的改进。通过将经济效益工具应用于两个时期(2007-2009年和2015-2018年)的十个亚洲城市,论文显示新加坡和香港的经济效益最高,班加罗尔最低。水资源管理和气候变化策略的实施是香港环境保护改善的一些因素。人口规模的强劲增长是班加罗尔EP下降的原因。马尼拉GCAP建议在12年内将该市目前的EP从15.43提高到17.41。
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引用次数: 0
The GHG Protein Ratio: An Indicator Whose Time Has Come 温室气体蛋白质比率:一个时机已到的指标
Pub Date : 2022-06-02 DOI: 10.54175/hsustain1020008
J. Dyer, R. Desjardins
The Carbon Footprint (CF) of agriculture must be substantially reduced to help avoid catastrophic climate change. This paper examines the ratio of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions to protein as an indicator of the CF of the major Canadian livestock commodities using previously published results. The GHG emissions for these commodities were estimated with a spreadsheet model that accounted for all three GHGs, the complete life cycles of each livestock type and the livestock interactions with the agricultural land base. The indicator results reviewed here included the responses to livestock types and diets, livestock versus plant protein sources, spatial scales and geographic differences. The sensitivity of the results shown suggest that GHG-protein ratios could provide valuable guidance for producers and consumers to reduce their GHG emissions. For example, diverting feed grains from beef feedlots to hog production would substantially reduce the CF of red meat, although still not as low as the CF of poultry products. The complete proteins derived from pulses have much lower CF values than all livestock products.
农业的碳足迹(CF)必须大幅减少,以帮助避免灾难性的气候变化。本文使用先前发表的结果,研究了温室气体(GHG)排放与蛋白质的比率,作为加拿大主要牲畜商品CF的指标。这些商品的温室气体排放量是用电子表格模型估计的,该模型考虑了所有三种温室气体、每种牲畜的完整生命周期以及牲畜与农业用地基础的相互作用。本文综述的指标结果包括对牲畜类型和日粮、牲畜与植物蛋白质来源、空间尺度和地理差异的响应。结果的敏感性表明,温室气体-蛋白质比值可以为生产者和消费者减少温室气体排放提供有价值的指导。例如,将牛肉饲养场的饲料颗粒转移到养猪场将大大降低红肉的CF,尽管仍然没有家禽产品的CF低。从豆类中提取的完整蛋白质的CF值远低于所有畜产品。
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引用次数: 0
The Substitution Effect of E-bikes and Psychological Processes Influencing Its Use: Results from Two Randomised Controlled Trials in Sweden 电动自行车的替代效应和影响其使用的心理过程:来自瑞典两项随机对照试验的结果
Pub Date : 2022-05-17 DOI: 10.54175/hsustain1020007
Alfred Söderberg
The market share of e-bikes has increased extensively in Europe over the last decade. How this trend will affect the transport system depends to a large extent on the substitution effect which needs to be determined in detail to allow projections on the potential of e-cycling as a means to promote sustainable transport systems. Further, little is known about what psychological determinants influence e-bike use, an important topic for policy makers that wish to promote e-cycling. This study aggregates GPS data from two randomised controlled trials in Sweden to determine the effect of e-bike use on travel behaviour. Motives behind e-bike use are investigated within a pathanalytic structural model, based on an expanded theory of planned behaviour. The results reveal that, on average, total cycling increased by 4.5 kilometres per person and day during the trials and its modal share measured in distance increased by 19%. E-bike use was predicted by the intention to bike to work, which in turn mediated the effects of attitudes and self-efficacy on e-cycling. Attitude mediated the indirect effect of personal norm on intention and collective efficacy amplified the effect of self-efficacy on intention. The results show that e-cycling has a large potential to contribute to a sustainable transport system. Policy makers could increase the use of e-bikes by strengthening individuals' attitudes toward cycling and perceived self-efficacy to e-cycle, by making environmental personal norms more salient and by highlighting collective action in the effort to limit environmental degradation.
在过去十年中,电动自行车在欧洲的市场份额大幅增加。这种趋势将如何影响交通系统在很大程度上取决于替代效应,这需要详细确定,以便预测电动自行车作为促进可持续交通系统的一种手段的潜力。此外,人们对影响电动自行车使用的心理因素知之甚少,这是希望促进电动自行车发展的政策制定者的一个重要话题。这项研究收集了瑞典两项随机对照试验的GPS数据,以确定使用电动自行车对出行行为的影响。在路径分析结构模型中,基于计划行为的扩展理论,研究了电动自行车使用背后的动机。结果显示,在试验期间,平均每人和每天的骑行总量增加了4.5公里,以距离衡量的模式份额增加了19%。骑自行车上班意向对电动自行车使用有预测作用,而骑自行车上班意向又介导态度和自我效能感对电动自行车使用的影响。态度中介了个人规范对意向的间接影响,集体效能放大了自我效能对意向的影响。结果表明,电动自行车在可持续交通系统中具有很大的潜力。政策制定者可以通过加强个人对骑自行车的态度和对电动自行车的自我效能感,通过使环境个人规范更加突出,并通过强调限制环境退化的集体行动来增加电动自行车的使用。
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引用次数: 0
Uncovering the Holistic Pathways to Circular Cities—The Case of Alberta, Canada 揭示环形城市的整体路径——以加拿大阿尔伯塔省为例
Pub Date : 2022-05-06 DOI: 10.54175/hsustain1020006
M. Marjanović, Wendy Wuyts, J. Marin, Joanna Williams
The notion of circularity has gained significant attention from governments of many cities across the world. The approaches to circular cities may range from narrower perspectives that see a circular city as the simple sum of circular economy initiatives to those more holistic that aim to integrate the whole urban system. Several researchers proposed frameworks that would guide cities to take a holistic perspective. This manuscript selects two frameworks and examines through them whether and to what extent broader and more holistic approaches to circular cities are being developed in practice. First, circularity principles, the scope of circular activities, and the concrete circular actions developed in the case study are read through Williams's approach to circular resource management. Second, the spatial circularity drivers framework of Marin and De Meulder is used to elucidate different sustainability framings and spatial practices that dominate contemporary conceptualisations of circularity. These two lenses are applied to five municipalities in Alberta (Canada) that have decided to develop strategies for 'shifting the paradigm' and transitioning to circular cities in 2018. Our study aims to investigate how holistic their roadmaps to circular cities are, and what changes are necessary to move towards more integrated approaches.
循环的概念已经得到了世界上许多城市政府的极大关注。循环城市的方法可以从狭隘的角度出发,将循环城市视为循环经济举措的简单总和,也可以从更全面的角度出发,旨在整合整个城市系统。几位研究人员提出了指导城市采取整体视角的框架。本文选择了两个框架,并通过它们考察了在实践中是否以及在多大程度上正在开发更广泛和更全面的循环城市方法。首先,循环原则,循环活动的范围,以及在案例研究中开发的具体循环行动,通过威廉姆斯的循环资源管理方法来阅读。其次,利用Marin和De Meulder的空间圆形驱动框架来阐明主导当代圆形概念的不同可持续性框架和空间实践。这两个镜头应用于加拿大阿尔伯塔省的五个城市,这些城市决定在2018年制定“转变模式”和向循环城市过渡的战略。我们的研究旨在调查他们的循环城市路线图有多全面,以及需要做出哪些改变才能走向更综合的方法。
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引用次数: 4
Island Tourism: Vulnerable or Resistant to Overtourism? 岛屿旅游:易受过度旅游影响还是有抵抗力?
Pub Date : 2022-04-29 DOI: 10.54175/hsustain1020005
R. Butler, Rachel Dodds
Islands have long attracted tourists and some islands rank amongst the most visited places in the world. Such popularity has created problems of overdevelopment and tourism at unsustainable levels, leading to the phenomenon of overtourism. Traditionally islands could rely on natural features to limit tourist numbers but this is increasingly not the case today, therefore, this paper reviews how changes in attitude, access and media coverage have led to problems of excessive visitation. The paper discusses the failure to create and implement appropriate policies which might mitigate against such developments and notes the inherent long-term problems many island authorities have traditionally faced when trying to improve economic conditions for their residents. The paper concludes that more specific action in terms of policy goals and implementation are needed if islands are to avoid the issues of unsustainable development and overtourism currently being experienced in many mainland tourist destinations.
长期以来,岛屿一直吸引着游客,有些岛屿是世界上游客最多的地方之一。这种受欢迎程度造成了不可持续的过度开发和旅游问题,导致过度旅游现象。传统上,岛屿可以依靠自然特征来限制游客数量,但今天这种情况越来越不适用。因此,本文回顾了态度、途径和媒体报道的变化是如何导致游客过多的问题的。该文件讨论了未能制定和执行可能减轻这种发展的适当政策,并指出许多岛屿当局在试图改善其居民的经济条件时传统上面临的固有长期问题。本文的结论是,如果岛屿要避免目前在许多大陆旅游目的地经历的不可持续发展和过度旅游问题,就需要在政策目标和执行方面采取更具体的行动。
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引用次数: 0
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Highlights of Sustainability
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