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BOOK REVIEW: INTELLIGENT DECARBONISATION, OFFERS HOPE THAT ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE COULD HELP END CLIMATE CHANGE 书评:智能脱碳,为人工智能帮助结束气候变化带来了希望
Pub Date : 2022-06-22 DOI: 10.1142/s2630534822800018
Andrew Breeson
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引用次数: 0
ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE CLIMATE PROJECTIONS IN ALGERIA USING STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING MODEL 利用统计缩尺模式评估阿尔及利亚未来气候预测
Pub Date : 2022-01-31 DOI: 10.1142/s2630534821300013
Salah Sahabi-Abed
In this study, we assess the future changes in minimum temperature (T-min), maximum temperature (T-max), and precipitation (PRCP) for the three periods the 2020s (2011–2040), the 2050s (2041–2070), and the 2080s (2071–2100), with respect to the reference period 1981–2010 over Algeria focusing on a validation of the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM). In this approach, to underpin our analysis, we evaluate statistically the SDSM performance by simulating the historical temperatures and precipitation. The NCEP reanalysis data and CanESM2 predictors of three future scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 are used for model calibration and future projection, respectively. The projected climate changes resulting from the application of SDSM show a convincing consistency with those unveiled in previous studies over Algeria based on dynamical regional climate model outputs conducted in the context of Middle East-North Africa region. By the end of the century, the results exhibit strong warming for both extreme temperatures under the worst-case scenario (RCP 8.5), it is more pronounced for the T-max and over the Algerian Sahara region. Under the optimistic scenario (RCP2.6), the strength of the warming is expected to increase for both extreme temperatures. The projected changes of precipitation revealed for all scenarios several discrepancies with significant decrease over the northwest region and central Sahara, while nonsignificant change is projected for the center and eastern coastal regions. Our findings corroborate previous studies using sophisticated tools by demonstrating that Algeria’s climate is expected to warm further in the future. These primary findings could give an overview of the application of the statistical modeling approach using SDSM over a semi-arid and arid vulnerable region like Algeria and would extend our knowledge in the climate-modelling field for the North Africa zone by providing an added value to the existing GCMs and regional climate projections. In addition, reliable information regarding the magnitude of future changes at local scale may be used in impact models to assess changes of other key economic sector variables such as water resources management, energy and agriculture.
在本研究中,我们评估了21世纪20年代(2011-2040年)、20世纪50年代(2041-2070年)和20世纪80年代(2071-2100年)三个时期阿尔及利亚的最低温度(T-min)、最高温度(T-max)和降水(PRCP)的未来变化,并以1981-2010年为参考期,重点验证了统计降尺度模型(SDSM)。在这种方法中,为了支持我们的分析,我们通过模拟历史温度和降水来统计地评估SDSM的性能。利用NCEP再分析数据和CanESM2预测因子分别对RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5 3种未来情景进行模式定标和未来预测。SDSM应用所产生的气候变化预估结果与先前在阿尔及利亚开展的基于中东-北非地区动态区域气候模式产出的研究结果具有令人信服的一致性。到本世纪末,结果显示,在最坏情况下的极端温度(RCP 8.5)都出现了强烈的变暖,在T-max和阿尔及利亚撒哈拉地区更为明显。在乐观情景下(RCP2.6),对于这两种极端温度,预计变暖的强度都将增加。预估的降水变化揭示了在所有情景下的几个差异,西北地区和撒哈拉中部地区显著减少,而中部和东部沿海地区的预估变化不显著。我们的发现证实了先前使用复杂工具的研究,表明阿尔及利亚的气候预计将在未来进一步变暖。这些初步发现可以概述SDSM统计建模方法在阿尔及利亚等半干旱和干旱脆弱地区的应用,并通过为现有的gcm和区域气候预测提供附加价值,扩展我们在北非地区气候建模领域的知识。此外,关于地方尺度未来变化幅度的可靠信息可用于影响模型,以评估诸如水资源管理、能源和农业等其他关键经济部门变量的变化。
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引用次数: 2
IMPACT OF INDUSTRIALIZATION ON THE DYNAMICS OF ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE: A MODELING STUDY 工业化对大气二氧化碳动态的影响:模拟研究
Pub Date : 2022-01-26 DOI: 10.1142/s2630534821500091
A. K. Misra, Maitri Verma
The expansion of the industrial sector is one of the prime contributors to the increase in the concentration of heat-trapping gases, mainly carbon dioxide ([Formula: see text]), in the atmosphere. Since the onset of the industrial revolution, industrial [Formula: see text] emissions have been contributing significantly to global warming and associated climate changes. To design strategies for the mitigation of climate changes, it is crucial to comprehend the role of industrialization in the elevation of atmospheric [Formula: see text] concentration. This paper presents a nonlinear mathematical model, comprising a set of nonlinear differential equations, to examine the impact of industrialization on the dynamics of atmospheric [Formula: see text]. Analysis of the model shows that if the industrial [Formula: see text] emission rate increases beyond a critical value, the system experiences Hopf-bifurcation about the interior equilibrium and periodic solution is generated. The direction and stability of periodic solutions arising through Hopf-bifurcation are investigated. Numerical simulation is presented to demonstrate the analytical findings.
工业部门的扩大是大气中吸热气体(主要是二氧化碳)浓度增加的主要原因之一。自工业革命开始以来,工业[公式:见文本]排放对全球变暖和相关的气候变化作出了重大贡献。要设计减缓气候变化的战略,就必须了解工业化在大气[公式:见案文]浓度升高中的作用。本文提出了一个非线性数学模型,包括一组非线性微分方程,用于研究工业化对大气动力学的影响[公式:见文本]。对模型的分析表明,当工业[公式:见文]排放率超过一个临界值时,系统会发生关于内部平衡的hopf分岔,并产生周期解。研究了hopf分岔引起的周期解的方向和稳定性。数值模拟验证了分析结果。
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引用次数: 2
MITIGATION YIELD SCALED METHANE EMISSION FROM RICE GROWN IN WATER STRESS CONDITIONS WITH BIOCHAR AND SILICATE AMENDMENTS 利用生物炭和硅酸盐改进剂缓解在水分胁迫条件下种植的水稻的按产量比例排放的甲烷
Pub Date : 2021-10-30 DOI: 10.1142/s2630534821500078
M. Ali, Sanjit CHANDRA BARMAN, Md. Ashraful Islam Khan, Md. Badiuzzaman Khan, Hafsa Jahan Hiya
Climate change and water scarcity may badly affect existing rice production system in Bangladesh. With a view to sustain rice productivity and mitigate yield scaled CH4 emission in the changing climatic conditions, a pot experiment was conducted under different soil water contents, biochar and silicate amendments with inorganic fertilization (NPKS). In this regard, 12 treatments combinations of biochar, silicate and NPKS fertilizer along with continuous standing water (CSW), soil saturation water content and field capacity (100% and 50%) moisture levels were arranged into rice planted potted soils. Gas samples were collected from rice planted pots through Closed Chamber technique and analyzed by Gas Chromatograph. This study revealed that seasonal CH4 emissions were suppressed through integrated biochar and silicate amendments with NPKS fertilizer (50–75% of the recommended doze), while increased rice yield significantly at different soil water contents. Biochar and silicate amendments with NPKS fertilizer (50% of the recommended doze) increased rice grain yield by 10.9%, 18.1%, 13.0% and 14.2%, while decreased seasonal CH4 emissions by 22.8%, 20.9%, 23.3% and 24.3% at continuous standing water level (CSW) (T9), at saturated soil water content (T10), at 100% field capacity soil water content (T11) and at 50% field capacity soil water content (T12), respectively. Soil porosity, soil redox status, SOC and free iron oxide contents were improved with biochar and silicate amendments. Furthermore, rice root oxidation activity (ROA) was found more dominant in water stress condition compared to flooded and saturated soil water contents, which ultimately reduced seasonal CH4 emissions as well as yield scaled CH4 emission. Conclusively, soil amendments with biochar and silicate fertilizer may be a rational practice to reduce the demand for inorganic fertilization and mitigate CH4 emissions during rice cultivation under water stress drought conditions.
气候变化和水资源短缺可能严重影响孟加拉国现有的水稻生产系统。为了在变化的气候条件下维持水稻的生产能力和减少产量比例的CH4排放,在不同土壤含水量、生物炭和硅酸盐添加无机施肥(NPKS)的条件下进行了盆栽试验。为此,在水稻盆栽土壤中设置了生物炭、硅酸盐和NPKS肥料12个处理组合,同时设置了连续静水(CSW)、土壤饱和含水量和田容量(100%和50%)水分水平。采用封闭室技术采集水稻种植盆中的气体样品,用气相色谱仪进行分析。研究结果表明,在不同土壤含水量条件下,生物炭和硅酸盐混合施用NPKS肥(用量为推荐用量的50-75%)可抑制CH4的季节性排放,并显著提高水稻产量。生物炭和硅酸盐加NPKS肥(推荐用量的50%)分别使水稻产量提高了10.9%、18.1%、13.0%和14.2%,而在连续静水位(CSW) (T9)、饱和土壤含水量(T10)、100%田容量土壤含水量(T11)和50%田容量土壤含水量(T12)下,CH4的季节性排放分别降低了22.8%、20.9%、23.3%和24.3%。生物炭和硅酸盐改良剂改善了土壤孔隙度、氧化还原状态、有机碳和游离氧化铁含量。水分胁迫条件下,水稻根系氧化活性(ROA)比淹水和饱和土壤含水量更占优势,最终减少了CH4的季节性排放和产量比例的CH4排放。综上所述,在水分胁迫干旱条件下,施用生物炭和硅酸盐肥料可能是减少水稻种植过程中无机施肥需求和减少CH4排放的合理做法。
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引用次数: 0
IMPROVING THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) PRECIPITATION FORECASTS AT SEASONAL SCALE OVER THE HIMALAYAN REGION USING MACHINE LEARNING 利用机器学习改进喜马拉雅地区季节尺度的北美多模式集合(nmme)降水预报
Pub Date : 2021-10-12 DOI: 10.1142/s263053482150008x
S. Shrivastava, R. Avtar, P. K. Bal
The coarse horizontal resolution global climate models (GCMs) have limitations in producing large biases over the mountainous region. Also, single model output or simple multi-model ensemble (SMME) outputs are associated with large biases. While predicting the rainfall extreme events, this study attempts to use an alternative modeling approach by using five different machine learning (ML) algorithms to improve the skill of North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) GCMs during Indian summer monsoon rainfall from 1982 to 2009 by reducing the model biases. Random forest (RF), AdaBoost (Ada), gradient (Grad) boosting, bagging (Bag) and extra (Extra) trees regression models are used and the results from each models are compared against the observations. In simple MME (SMME), a wet bias of 20[Formula: see text]mm/day and an RMSE up to 15[Formula: see text]mm/day are found over the Himalayan region. However, all the ML models can bring down the mean bias up to [Formula: see text][Formula: see text]mm/day and RMSE up to 2[Formula: see text]mm/day. The interannual variability in ML outputs is closer to observation than the SMME. Also, a high correlation from 0.5 to 0.8 is found between in all ML models and then in SMME. Moreover, representation of RF and Grad is found to be best out of all five ML models that represent a high correlation over the Himalayan region. In conclusion, by taking full advantage of different models, the proposed ML-based multi-model ensemble method is shown to be accurate and effective.
粗水平分辨率全球气候模式(GCMs)在山区产生较大偏差方面存在局限性。此外,单模型输出或简单的多模型集成(SMME)输出与大偏差相关。在预测降雨极端事件的同时,本研究试图使用一种替代建模方法,通过使用五种不同的机器学习(ML)算法,通过减少模型偏差,提高1982 - 2009年印度夏季风降雨期间北美多模式集成(NMME) GCMs的技能。使用随机森林(RF)、AdaBoost (Ada)、梯度(Grad)增强、bagging (Bag)和extra (extra)树回归模型,并将每个模型的结果与观测结果进行比较。在简单MME (SMME)中,喜马拉雅地区的湿偏为20[公式:见文本]mm/day, RMSE高达15[公式:见文本]mm/day。然而,所有ML模型都可以将平均偏差降低到[公式:见文本]mm/day, RMSE降低到2[公式:见文本]mm/day。ML输出的年际变化比SMME更接近观测值。此外,在所有ML模型和SMME之间发现了从0.5到0.8的高相关性。此外,在喜马拉雅地区具有高相关性的所有五个ML模型中,RF和Grad的表示被发现是最好的。综上所述,通过充分利用不同的模型,本文提出的基于ml的多模型集成方法是准确有效的。
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引用次数: 0
ANALYSIS OF HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT TRENDS IN AUSTRALIA WATERSHED 澳大利亚流域水文干旱趋势分析
Pub Date : 2021-07-23 DOI: 10.1142/S2630534821500066
A. Shahraki
This paper is about the problem of drought and its future. The research methods are both theoretical and field studies. This paper presents a mathematical model for drought analysis in Australia that can predict its future trend. It analyses three meteorological indicators, including annual rainfall, increases in temperature, and water consumption volume. Surveys about the mentioned indicators are from the past to the present and now to the future intervals. This paper suggests practical solutions to change the conditions of drought-affected regions. The research method, simulated exemplary, and outcomes of this paper are applicable everywhere in the world affected by the hydro-drought crisis.
这篇文章是关于干旱问题及其未来的。研究方法采用理论和实地研究相结合的方法。本文提出了一个可以预测澳大利亚未来干旱趋势的数学模型。它分析了三个气象指标,包括年降雨量、气温上升和用水量。上述指标的调查时间间隔为过去到现在和现在到未来。本文提出了切实可行的解决方案,以改变干旱影响地区的条件。本文的研究方法、模拟实例和研究结果适用于全球所有受水旱危机影响的地区。
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引用次数: 0
ANNUAL AND SEASONAL VARIATIONS IN TEMPERATURE EXTREMES AND RAINFALL IN BANGLADESH, 1989–2018 1989-2018年孟加拉国极端温度和降雨量的年和季节变化
Pub Date : 2021-06-28 DOI: 10.1142/s2630534821500042
Lipon Chandra Das, Zhihua Zhang
Based on temperature and rainfall recorded at 34 meteorological stations in Bangladesh during 1989–2018, the trends of yearly average maximum and minimum temperatures have been found to be increasing at the rates of 0.025∘C and 0.018∘C per year. Analysis of seasonal average maximum temperature showed increasing trend for all seasons except the late autumn season. The increasing trend was particularly significant for summer, rainy and autumn seasons. Seasonal average minimum temperature data also showed increasing trends for all seasons. The trend of yearly average rainfall has been found to be decreasing at a rate of 0.014[Formula: see text]mm per year in the same period; especially, for most of the meteorological stations the rainfall demonstrates an increasing trend for rainy season and a decreasing trend in the winter season. It means that in Bangladesh dry periods became drier and wet periods became wetter.
根据1989-2018年孟加拉国34个气象站记录的气温和降雨量,发现年平均最高气温和最低气温的趋势以每年0.025°C和0.018°C的速度增加。季节平均最高气温分析除深秋季节外,其余季节均呈上升趋势。增加趋势在夏季、雨季和秋季尤为显著。季节平均最低温度数据也显示出所有季节的上升趋势。同期年平均降雨量以每年0.014毫米的速度递减[公式:见文];特别是,大多数气象站的降雨量在雨季呈增加趋势,在冬季呈减少趋势。这意味着在孟加拉国,干旱期变得更干燥,湿润期变得更湿润。
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引用次数: 0
CONTRIBUTION OF AGROFORESTS IN ADAPTATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS: ESTIMATING THE PHYTODIVERSITY AND C SEQUESTRATION POTENTIAL IN 8-, 16- AND 24-YEAR-OLD OF PINUS SYLVESTRIS AGROFORESTS IN NORTHERN CAMEROON (TROPICAL AFRICA) 农林业对适应气候变化影响的贡献:喀麦隆北部(热带非洲)8-、16-和24-杉松农林业植物多样性和碳固存潜力的估算
Pub Date : 2021-04-21 DOI: 10.1142/s2630534820500102
V. Noiha Noumi, P. KOUAM KAMNING, C. KAMDOUM DEMGUIA, L. Zapfack
The study aims at assessing the agrobiodiversity and carbon stocks by the pine agroforests in the Sudano-Guinean zone of Cameroon. Five [Formula: see text][Formula: see text]m sampling transects were established in each chronosequence, it was undertaken to assess the growth characteristics and biomass. Estimates of stocks of carbon in aboveground biomass, belowground biomass (BGB), total biomass (TB) and CO2 equivalent stock were incorporated in allometric equation based on nondestructive method. A total of 24 species from 23 genera and 17 families were inventoried. Annona senegalensis, Syzygium guineensis and Hymenocardia acida contributed the most to the importance value index (IVI). Density ranged between [Formula: see text]–[Formula: see text] stems/ha; basal area between [Formula: see text]–[Formula: see text][Formula: see text]m2/ha; Shannon index between [Formula: see text]–[Formula: see text] with the highest value for 8-year-old stands; Pielou’s evenness between [Formula: see text]–[Formula: see text] with the lowest value in 24-year-old stands. Aboveground biomass ranged between [Formula: see text]–[Formula: see text] Mg C/ha with the highest value in 16-year-old stands; belowground carbon from [Formula: see text] Mg C/ha to [Formula: see text] Mg C/ha and total carbon from [Formula: see text] Mg C/ha to [Formula: see text] Mg C/ha. The sequestration potential ranged from [Formula: see text] Mg CO[Formula: see text]/ha to [Formula: see text] Mg CO[Formula: see text]/ha. The sequestration rates were 84.77, 49.7 and 28.6 Mg CO[Formula: see text].ha[Formula: see text]yr[Formula: see text] in 8-, 16- and 24-year-old stands, respectively. Although our data reported that pine stands hosted a few number of species; they are true carbon sinks and useful to the REED[Formula: see text] community.
该研究旨在评估喀麦隆苏丹-几内亚地区松木农林复合林的农业生物多样性和碳储量。每个时间序列建立5个[公式:见文][公式:见文]m样带,对其生长特征和生物量进行评估。基于非破坏性方法,将地上生物量、地下生物量、总生物量和二氧化碳当量储量的估算值纳入异速生长方程。共调查到17科23属24种。Annona senegalensis、Syzygium guineensis和Hymenocardia acida对重要值指数(IVI)贡献最大,密度范围为[公式:见文]-[公式:见文]茎/公顷;[公式:见文]-[公式:见文][公式:见文]m2/ha;香农指数介于[公式:见文]-[公式:见文]之间,8年树龄林分最高;Pielou均匀度[公式:见文本]-[公式:见文本]与24岁林分的最低值之间。地上生物量在[公式:见文]-[公式:见文]Mg C/ha之间,16年林分最高;地下碳从[公式:见文]Mg C/ha到[公式:见文]Mg C/ha,总碳从[公式:见文]Mg C/ha到[公式:见文]Mg C/ha。固存电位的范围从[公式:见文]Mg CO[公式:见文]/ha到[公式:见文]Mg CO[公式:见文]/ha。固排量分别为84.77、49.7和28.6 Mg CO[公式:见文]。ha[公式:见文]yr[公式:见文]分别为8号、16号和24号展台。虽然我们的数据报告说,松林中有少量的物种;它们是真正的碳汇,对REED社区很有用。
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引用次数: 0
RAINFALL VARIABILITY AND ITS EFFECT ON COMMUNICATION LINK IN SOUTHWESTERN NIGERIA 尼日利亚西南部降雨变率及其对通讯联系的影响
Pub Date : 2020-08-27 DOI: 10.1142/s2630534820500047
F. A. Semire, Adeyanju Joshua Adekunle, Robert O. Abolade
Due to the fact that rainfall may hamper signal availability, rainfall variability and its resultant effect on environment and communication have become of global concern. In this study, we investigate the trend and variability of rainfall in southwestern Nigeria and examine its effect on radio communication. Our results reveal a steady increasing in rainfall and slightly unstable in volume variation in southwestern Nigeria. The study also reveals that the tendency of higher attenuation in years was caused by the increasing trend but showing variability with frequency. With the rising trend in view, there is therefore the likelihood that radio communication infrastructures will experience increasing outage and more signal loss in the future years. This outcome should serve as useful tools in optimizing satellite link budget and better utilization of available bandwidth.
由于降雨可能妨碍信号的可用性,降雨变率及其对环境和通信的影响已成为全球关注的问题。在这项研究中,我们调查了尼日利亚西南部降雨的趋势和变化,并检查了其对无线电通信的影响。我们的研究结果显示,尼日利亚西南部的降雨量稳步增加,体积变化略有不稳定。研究还发现,年际衰减较高的趋势是由增加趋势引起的,但随频率变化。鉴于这种上升趋势,未来几年无线电通信基础设施可能会出现越来越多的中断和更多的信号损失。这一结果应成为优化卫星链路预算和更好地利用可用带宽的有用工具。
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引用次数: 0
THE SOLAR-TERRESTRIAL RELATIONSHIP USING FRACTAL DIMENSION 用分形维数计算日地关系
Pub Date : 2020-07-01 DOI: 10.1142/s2630534820500023
Danish Hassan, Muhammad Fahim Akhter, Shaheen Abbas
Sun is the main source of energy for the earth and other planets. Its activity in one or other way influences the terrestrial climate. Particularly, the solar activity manifested in the form of sunspots is found to be much more influential on the earth’s climate and on its magnetosphere. Links of the variability in terrestrial climate and sunspot cycles and associated magnetic cycles have been the concern of many recent studies. These two time series data sunspots and K-index are distributed into 22-year cycles, according to the magnetic field of the sun in which polarity reverses after 11-years. The fractal dimension of each sunspot cycle from 1 to 24 is calculated and found to be quasi-regular (persistent, [Formula: see text]). To understand the regular effects of the dynamics of sunspot cycles on the earth’s climate and magnetosphere, the sunspot cycles and K-index cycles (22 years each) from 1932 to 2014 are observed and discussed comparatively in the perspective of fractal dimension and Hurst exponent.
太阳是地球和其他行星能量的主要来源。它的活动以这样或那样的方式影响着陆地气候。特别是,发现以太阳黑子形式表现的太阳活动对地球气候和磁层的影响要大得多。陆地气候变化与太阳黑子周期及相关磁周期之间的联系是近年来许多研究关注的问题。这两个时间序列数据太阳黑子和k指数分布为22年的周期,根据太阳磁场,极性每11年反转一次。计算了从1到24的每个太阳黑子周期的分形维数,发现它们是准规则的(持久性,[公式:见原文])。为了解太阳黑子周期动态对地球气候和磁层的规律性影响,从分形维数和Hurst指数的角度对1932 ~ 2014年的太阳黑子周期和k指数周期(各22年)进行了观测和比较讨论。
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引用次数: 1
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International Journal of Big Data Mining for Global Warming
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