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Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction Based on Wavelet Analysis and XGBoost 基于小波分析和 XGBoost 的短期交通流预测
Pub Date : 2024-07-23 DOI: 10.11648/j.ijtet.20241001.12
Xin Wang, Fang Fang
Traffic flow prediction is of great significance for urban planning and alleviating traffic congestion. Due to the randomness and high volatility of urban road network short-term traffic flow, it is difficult for a single model to accurately estimate traffic flow and travel time. In order to obtain more ideal prediction accuracy, a combined prediction model based on wavelet decomposition and reconstruction (WDR) and the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model is developed in this paper. Firstly, the Mallat algorithm is applied to perform multi-scale wavelet decomposition on the average travel time series of the original traffic data, and single branch reconstruction is performed on the components at each scale. Secondly, XGBoost is used to predict each reconstructed single-branch sequence, so as to obtain multiple sub-models, and the Bayesian algorithm is used to optimize the hyperparameters of the sub-models. Finally, the algebraic sum of the predicted values of all sub-models is used to obtain the overall traffic prediction result. To test the performance of the proposed model, actual traffic flow data has been collected from a certain link of the Brooklyn area in New York, USA. The performance of proposed WDR-XGBoost model has been compared with other existing machine learning models, e.g., support vector regression model (SVR) and single XGBoost model. Experimental findings demonstrated that the proposed WDR-XGBoost model performs better on multiple evaluation indicators and has significantly outperformed the other models in terms of accuracy and stability.
交通流量预测对城市规划和缓解交通拥堵具有重要意义。由于城市路网短期交通流的随机性和高波动性,单一模型难以准确估计交通流量和出行时间。为了获得更理想的预测精度,本文建立了基于小波分解与重构(WDR)和极梯度提升(XGBoost)模型的组合预测模型。首先,应用 Mallat 算法对原始交通数据的平均旅行时间序列进行多尺度小波分解,并对每个尺度的分量进行单分支重构。其次,使用 XGBoost 对每个重建的单分支序列进行预测,从而得到多个子模型,并使用贝叶斯算法对子模型的超参数进行优化。最后,利用所有子模型预测值的代数和得出整体流量预测结果。为了测试所提模型的性能,我们从美国纽约布鲁克林地区的某个路段收集了实际交通流量数据。将所提出的 WDR-XGBoost 模型的性能与其他现有的机器学习模型(如支持向量回归模型 (SVR) 和单一 XGBoost 模型)进行了比较。实验结果表明,所提出的 WDR-XGBoost 模型在多个评价指标上表现更佳,在准确性和稳定性方面明显优于其他模型。
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引用次数: 0
Interpolation Analysis of Shipborne Hydrographic Survey Data Applied to the Discussion of Safe Navigation of Vessels -- Taking Zhoushan Tiaozhoumen Channel as an Example 船载水文测量数据的插值分析在船舶安全航行讨论中的应用--以舟山蕉门航道为例
Pub Date : 2023-12-18 DOI: 10.11648/j.ijtet.20230904.13
Lixiong Chen, Junjie Zhou, Dongkui Wu
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引用次数: 0
Parameter Estimation and Sensitivity Analysis of Bus Rapid Transit Frequency in Tanzania

坦桑尼亚快速公交频率的参数估计和敏感性分析
Pub Date : 2023-10-28 DOI: 10.11648/j.ijtet.20230904.12
Laurencia Ndelamo Massawe, Oluwole Daniel Makinde
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引用次数: 0
Risk Assessment and Measures to Improve Safety Management of Offshore Platforms in Marine Engineering Projects 海洋工程项目海上平台安全管理的风险评估与改进措施
Pub Date : 2023-08-22 DOI: 10.11648/j.ijtet.20230903.11
Deling Wang, Yijun Liu, Rengui Fan, Xinwei Liu
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引用次数: 0
Implications of Tech-Enabled Transport on Planning and Investment of Transport Infrastructure 科技运输对交通基建规划及投资的影响
Pub Date : 2023-07-27 DOI: 10.11648/j.ijtet.20230902.12
Karlson Hargroves, Daniel Conley, H. Dia
: As the world continues to experience rapid improvements in technology across most if not all sectors it will be important to understand how changes in technology affect longer term planning and decision making, especially in the infrastructure sector. This paper summarizes an investigation into how technology enabled transport stands to impact on business case development, risk assessment and economic modelling of transportation infrastructure, with implications for transport planning, design and operation in the medium to long term. The paper outlines the research findings of an industry-led investigation working with government and the private sector to investigate how anticipated changes in the level of technology enablement of vehicles may influence decisions around investment in transport infrastructure by transport agencies. The research was undertaken in three stages: Stage 1 involved the identification of precedent for policy changes to support and control the trialing and use of vehicles capable of driverless operation; Stage 2 involved the identification of 12 areas where technology change stands to directly influence infrastructure investment in the future; Stage 3 explored the 12 areas to identify 28 implications that were then prioritized into 6 key themes based on industry need and relevance. This prioritisation was based on industry partner perceptions of the level of influence of each area on investment decisions. Recommendations are provided for each area along with initial strategic considerations for further investigation. The research concludes that the transport sector needs to increase efforts to understand how rapidly developing technology will impact medium to long term decision to ensure that planning and design approaches and specifications are appropriately updated as the understanding of the technology and its implications improves. At the same time implications on the overall modal mix need to be carefully considered given new opportunities for automated on-demand services to enhance shared transit options and be provided by private operators as part of the primary transport network. This research has been developed with funding and support provided by Australia’s Sustainable Built Environment National Research Centre (SBEnrc) and its partners.
随着世界上大多数(如果不是所有)领域的技术不断快速进步,了解技术变化如何影响长期规划和决策将变得非常重要,尤其是在基础设施领域。本文总结了一项调查,研究技术如何使交通运输对商业案例开发、风险评估和交通基础设施的经济建模产生影响,并对中长期的交通规划、设计和运营产生影响。本文概述了一项由行业主导的调查的研究结果,该调查与政府和私营部门合作,调查车辆技术实现水平的预期变化如何影响运输机构在交通基础设施投资方面的决策。该研究分三个阶段进行:第一阶段涉及确定政策变化的先例,以支持和控制能够无人驾驶操作的车辆的试验和使用;第二阶段涉及确定12个技术变革将直接影响未来基础设施投资的领域;第三阶段探讨了12个领域,确定了28个影响,然后根据行业需求和相关性将其优先划分为6个关键主题。这种优先次序是根据行业伙伴对每个领域对投资决策的影响程度的看法确定的。为每个领域提供了建议以及进一步调查的初步战略考虑。研究得出的结论是,运输部门需要加大努力,了解快速发展的技术将如何影响中长期决策,以确保随着对技术及其影响的理解的提高,规划和设计方法和规范得到适当的更新。与此同时,考虑到自动按需服务的新机会,需要仔细考虑对整体模式组合的影响,以增加共享过境选择,并由私营运营商作为主要运输网络的一部分提供。这项研究得到了澳大利亚可持续建筑环境国家研究中心(SBEnrc)及其合作伙伴的资助和支持。
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引用次数: 0
Determination of the Influence of Project Planning on the Performance of Road Construction Project 项目规划对道路建设项目绩效影响的确定
Pub Date : 2023-07-06 DOI: 10.11648/j.ijtet.20230902.11
Nnadi Ezekiel Oluwaseun Ejiofor, Onyema Emmanuel Ovat
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引用次数: 0
Driver Decision Space Inversion Method Based on DC-GAN
Pub Date : 2023-04-15 DOI: 10.11648/j.ijtet.20230901.13
Shuanfeng Zhao, Leping Li, Yang Li, Mengwei Wang, Shuaijun Wang, Mingyue Li
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引用次数: 0
The Current Situation and Critical Cultivating Measures of High-End Maritime Talents in Shanghai International Shipping Centre 上海国际航运中心高端海事人才现状及关键培养措施
Pub Date : 2023-03-09 DOI: 10.11648/j.ijtet.20230901.12
Wenhai Dong, Deling Wang, Zhang Ni
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引用次数: 0
Traffic Impact Assessment for Sustainable Development Along the Highways in Bangladesh: Considerations for a New Industrial Setup 孟加拉国高速公路沿线可持续发展的交通影响评估:对新工业结构的考虑
Pub Date : 2023-02-04 DOI: 10.11648/j.ijtet.20230901.11
Fahim Rahman Khan, Sree Pradip Kumer Sarker
: A useful method for evaluating the effects of traffic generated by a proposed development on the local transportation system is the traffic impact assessment (TIA). A TIA typically contains a description of the size and complexity of the planned project, an overview of the anticipated effects, and any upgrades that may be necessary to make the roadway infrastructure safe for the proposed development. With this study's design horizon in mind, we hope to ensure that the transportation system will operate efficiently and safely. Development must have the necessary utilities and transportation systems to sustain itself. Every proposed development must then include an evaluation of the site's appropriateness in terms of factors like compatibility with highways and plans, access location geometry, and capacity and traffic control, among others. The main objective of the TIA report is to identify whether a particular development project will have an impact on the safety and efficiency of adjacent roads. Moreover, the report paves the way for additional study and the development of traffic management plans to reduce traffic congestion. TIA is also needed to support the EIA being prepared for any project development along the highway road. So, it is important to evaluate TIA while new industrial installations are set up along the Highways in Bangladesh.
:交通影响评估是评估拟议发展对本地交通系统所产生的交通影响的一种有用方法。TIA通常包含对计划项目的规模和复杂性的描述,对预期影响的概述,以及可能需要的任何升级,以确保拟议开发的道路基础设施安全。考虑到这项研究的设计视野,我们希望确保交通系统的高效和安全运行。发展必须有必要的公用事业和运输系统来维持自身。然后,每一项拟议的开发都必须包括对场地适当性的评估,包括与公路和规划的兼容性、通道位置几何、容量和交通控制等因素。交通运输局报告的主要目的是确定某一特定发展项目是否会对邻近道路的安全和效率产生影响。此外,报告亦为进一步研究及制订交通管理计划,以减少交通挤塞作好准备。在公路沿线的任何项目开发中,也需要TIA来支持正在准备的环评。因此,在孟加拉国高速公路沿线建立新的工业设施时,评估TIA非常重要。
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引用次数: 0
Optimization of Electric Cars with Solar Cells and Life-PO4 Batteries 使用太阳能电池和Life-PO4电池的电动汽车的优化
Pub Date : 2023-01-31 DOI: 10.11648/j.ijtet.20220804.12
Bayu Purbo Wartoyo, Ida Umboro
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引用次数: 0
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International Journal of Transportation Engineering and Technology
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