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Smart cities - spatial planning and disaster risk reduction of Pune city, India 智慧城市——印度浦那市的空间规划和减少灾害风险
Pub Date : 2023-07-26 DOI: 10.20517/dpr.2023.11
Sujata Kodag, Abhishek Kodag
Cities are becoming the preferred choice of populations to reside in due to the opportunities they offer. While the concentration of populations is increasing in the cities, there is an immediate need to equip the cities for efficient functioning and providing safety and security. The unplanned urbanization of cities is adding vulnerability, especially to the spatially relevant hazards such as earthquakes and floods. Initiatives such as the Smart City Mission support cities with investments to improve the quality of life for people and enhance the efficiency of the civic systems by integrating infrastructure and technology. However, the top down approach to decision making, especially in spatial planning, leaves out the perspective of citizens. This study, hence, attempts to gather the perception of citizens on smart city initiatives and disaster risk reduction (DRR) through a questionnaire survey in the smart city of Pune, India. The objective of this study is to understand how smart city initiatives influence the key spatial planning components for DRR. The study reveals smart city initiatives proposed for the city impacts each spatial planning component. Smart city initiatives may further stress these components, increasing the exposure to disaster risks. Therefore, there is a need for holistic integration in spatial planning for DRR. This study can help in modulating the smart city initiatives for enhancing the safety of the citizens.
由于城市提供的机会,城市正成为人们居住的首选。在城市人口日益集中的同时,迫切需要使城市具备有效运作和提供安全保障的能力。城市无计划的城市化增加了脆弱性,特别是对地震和洪水等空间相关灾害的脆弱性。智慧城市使命(Smart City Mission)等倡议通过投资支持城市,通过整合基础设施和技术,改善人们的生活质量,提高公民系统的效率。然而,自上而下的决策方法,特别是在空间规划中,忽略了公民的观点。因此,本研究试图通过在印度浦那的智慧城市进行问卷调查,收集市民对智慧城市倡议和减少灾害风险(DRR)的看法。本研究的目的是了解智慧城市倡议如何影响DRR的关键空间规划组成部分。该研究揭示了为城市提出的智慧城市倡议对每个空间规划组成部分的影响。智慧城市计划可能会进一步强调这些组成部分,增加灾害风险。因此,需要在减灾空间规划中进行整体整合。这项研究可以帮助调整智慧城市的举措,以提高市民的安全。
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引用次数: 0
Resilience-based seismic retrofit of urban infrastructure systems 基于弹性的城市基础设施系统抗震改造
Pub Date : 2023-06-29 DOI: 10.20517/dpr.2023.07
Chuang Liu, Min Xu, Shenglan Hu, M. Ouyang
Earthquakes are among the most devastating natural disasters, posing a significant threat to human life and property. With the rapid pace of urbanization, urban risk against earthquakes has increased, making them an increasingly pressing concern for human society. Urban infrastructure systems (UISs), such as electric power, water supply, and gas systems, are essential to the smooth functioning of modern society but are highly vulnerable to ground shaking, resulting in service interruptions to customers and triggering negative impacts on society. This article focuses on the seismic retrofit problem, which intends to enhance the resilience of UISs against seismic hazards. First, a two-stage stochastic programming model is developed for the seismic retrofit problem, where the first stage seeks an optimal seismic retrofit strategy under a limited budget, and the second stage attempts to identify a repair sequence to maximize the system resilience under the given retrofit strategy. Then, this article introduces a heuristic algorithm based on the scenario reduction method and integer L-shaped method to solve the formulated model. Finally, numerical experiments on the Qujing power transmission system are conducted to validate the proposed algorithm. Results show that they can be applied to the resilience-based seismic retrofit problem of large-scale UISs.
地震是最具破坏性的自然灾害之一,对人类生命财产构成重大威胁。随着城市化的快速发展,城市的地震风险日益增加,成为人类社会日益迫切关注的问题。城市基础设施系统(UISs),如电力、供水和燃气系统,对现代社会的顺利运作至关重要,但极易受到地面震动的影响,导致客户服务中断,并对社会产生负面影响。本文重点研究了地震加固问题,旨在提高美军基地对地震灾害的抵御能力。首先,针对地震改造问题建立了两阶段随机规划模型,其中第一阶段寻求有限预算下的最优地震改造策略,第二阶段试图确定在给定改造策略下最大限度地提高系统弹性的修复顺序。然后,本文介绍了一种基于场景约简法和整数l形法的启发式算法来求解所制定的模型。最后,在曲靖输电系统上进行了数值实验,验证了算法的有效性。结果表明,该方法可应用于大型usis基于弹性的抗震改造问题。
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引用次数: 0
Welcome to the new journal of Disaster Prevention and Resilience 欢迎来到新一期的《灾害预防与恢复》杂志
Pub Date : 2021-06-22 DOI: 10.20517/dpr.2021.01
Jie Li
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引用次数: 1
Compounding challenges for disaster resilience in small island developing states 增加了小岛屿发展中国家抗灾能力的挑战
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.20517/dpr.2021.04
Denise D. P. Thompson
No country will escape the ravages of climate change, but some, like small island developing states (SIDS), will be less able to withstand them. Their fundamental characteristics in essential domains pose existential threats for them. The paper borrows from Lukka and Vinnari’s work on domain and method theories as a lens to conceptually explore the question, “Is it possible for SIDS to become disaster resilient?” It turns out that SIDS might be too small, too isolated, too economically and institutionally weak, and too exposed to become disaster resilient. Their developmental state, economic, institutional, and community attributes are causes of significant vulnerabilities and undermine disaster resilience efforts. The challenges from climate change alone highlight the herculean task ahead for these small and tiny developing islands without transformative actions. The advantage for SIDS is their solid social system. Their populations are resourceful, and they can pivot if they need to. However, the lingering question remains whether that will be enough to mitigate the weaknesses in other critical resilience domains?
没有一个国家能够逃脱气候变化的破坏,但一些国家,如小岛屿发展中国家(SIDS),将无法抵御气候变化。它们在基本领域的基本特征对它们的生存构成威胁。本文借鉴了Lukka和Vinnari在领域和方法理论方面的研究成果,从概念上探讨了“小岛屿发展中国家有可能变得具有抗灾能力吗?”事实证明,小岛屿发展中国家可能太小,太孤立,经济和制度太薄弱,太容易受到灾害的影响。它们的发展状态、经济、制度和社区属性是造成重大脆弱性的原因,并破坏了抗灾努力。仅气候变化带来的挑战就表明,如果不采取变革行动,这些发展中小岛国面临的任务将十分艰巨。小岛屿发展中国家的优势在于其稳固的社会制度。他们的人口足智多谋,如果需要,他们可以转向。然而,一个挥之不去的问题是,这是否足以缓解其他关键弹性领域的弱点?
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引用次数: 1
Fréchet-derivative-based global sensitivity analysis of the physical random function model of ground motions 基于frsamet -导数的地震动物理随机函数模型全局敏感性分析
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.20517/dpr.2023.13
Z. Wan, Wei-Feng Tao, Yanqiong Ding, Lifeng Xin
Randomness in earthquake ground motions is prevalent in real engineering practices. Therefore, it is of paramount significance to utilize an appropriate model to simulate random ground motions. In this paper, a physical random function model of ground motions, which considers the source-path-site mechanisms of earthquakes, is employed for the seismic analysis. The probability density evolution method is adopted to quantify the extreme value distribution of structural responses. Then, the sensitivity analysis of the extreme value distribution with respect to basic model parameters is conducted via a newly developed Fréchet-derivative-based approach. A 10-story reinforced concrete frame structure, with nominal deterministic structural parameters and subjected to random ground motions, is studied. The results indicate that when the structure is still in a linear or weakly nonlinear stage in the situation of frequent earthquakes, the model parameter called the equivalent predominate circular frequency is of the most significance, with an importance measure (IM) greater than 0.8. Nonetheless, if the structure exhibits strong nonlinearity, such as in the case of a rare earthquake, the equivalent predominate circular frequency remains highly influential, but the Brune source parameter, which describes the decay process of the fault rupture, becomes important as well, with an IM increased from around 0.2 to around 0.4. These findings indicate that the IMs of basic model parameters are closely related to the embedded physical mechanisms of the structure, and the change in the physical state of the structure may provoke the change of IMs of basic inputs. Furthermore, some other issues are also outlined.
地震地震动的随机性在实际工程实践中是普遍存在的。因此,利用合适的模型模拟随机地震动具有重要意义。本文采用考虑地震震源-路径-场地机制的地震动物理随机函数模型进行地震分析。采用概率密度演化法量化结构响应极值分布。然后,采用一种新提出的基于fr -导数的方法,对极值分布对基本模型参数的敏感性进行了分析。研究了具有名义确定性结构参数并受随机地震动作用的10层钢筋混凝土框架结构。结果表明,在地震频繁的情况下,当结构仍处于线性或弱非线性阶段时,等效主导圆频率模型参数最重要,其重要性测度(IM)大于0.8。尽管如此,如果结构表现出强烈的非线性,例如在罕见地震的情况下,等效的占主导地位的圆频率仍然具有很大的影响,但描述断层破裂衰减过程的布吕纳源参数也变得重要,IM从0.2左右增加到0.4左右。这些结果表明,基本模型参数的IMs与结构嵌入的物理机制密切相关,结构物理状态的变化可能引起基本输入IMs的变化。此外,还概述了其他一些问题。
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引用次数: 0
Modelling of multi-sectoral critical infrastructure interdependencies for vulnerability analysis 为脆弱性分析建立多部门关键基础设施相互依赖关系模型
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.20517/dpr.2021.05
Jiwei Lin, T. Pan
Critical infrastructure such as the transportation, power generation, water supply, telecommunications, security and health services/systems, etc. are essential for providing a reliable flow of goods and services, crucial to the functioning of the economy and society. These infrastructures are closely linked and dependent on one another, and these interdependencies need to be modelled in order to analyse the disruptions and vulnerabilities of critical infrastructure networks as a whole. With increased, investment and complexity in the coupling of gas and electricity network, limitations and vulnerabilities of the coupled networks are becoming increasingly relevant to the operational planning of the critical infrastructures. Current modelling of a coupled gas and electricity network will be used in conjunction with nation input-output interdependency model to model physical critical infrastructures and critical infrastructure interdependencies, respectively. This research work will tackle two possible scenarios that might happen in the gas network while evaluating the cascading impact both in the physical model perspective and input-output interdependency model perspective. The results will provide insights on how disruption in the gas network affects the electricity grid and its corresponding economic impact on all economic sectors in a nation.
关键的基础设施,如运输、发电、供水、电信、安全和保健服务/系统等,对于提供可靠的货物和服务流动至关重要,对经济和社会的运作至关重要。这些基础设施紧密相连,相互依赖,需要对这些相互依赖关系进行建模,以便从整体上分析关键基础设施网络的中断和脆弱性。随着天然气和电力网络耦合投资的增加和复杂性的增加,耦合网络的局限性和脆弱性与关键基础设施的运营规划越来越相关。目前的耦合天然气和电力网络模型将与国家投入产出相互依赖关系模型一起使用,分别模拟物理关键基础设施和关键基础设施相互依赖关系。这项研究工作将解决天然气网络中可能发生的两种情况,同时从物理模型的角度和投入产出相互依赖模型的角度评估级联影响。研究结果将提供有关天然气网络中断如何影响电网及其对一个国家所有经济部门的相应经济影响的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Predictive models for the run-out distance of clay slopes based on material point method 基于物质点法的粘土边坡位移距离预测模型
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.20517/dpr.2023.14
Yu-Han Zhao, Qiang Wu, W. Du
This paper aims to propose run-out distance predictive models for clay slopes using the material point method (MPM), which can simulate the progressive failure process of slopes considering the strain softening effect of soils. A suite of 100 ground motions is selected from the NGA-West2 database and then scaled for conducting the dynamic analysis of slopes. The permanent slope displacements (D) can be classified into two categories, namely the “un-failure” category with D smaller than 0.4 m and the “failure” category with D in the range of 10 m to 15 m. It is found that peak ground velocity (PGV) exhibits the highest correlation with D for the “un-failure” category, whereas all ground-motion intensity measures (e.g., PGV, peak ground acceleration) are less correlated with D for the “failure” category. Therefore, the run-out distance of collapsed clay slopes is more related to the failure model rather than the triggering shaking intensities. Moreover, thousands of slope models with various slope angles, slope heights (H), soil densities, and peak and residual strength parameters are developed based on MPM. The run-out distances for the slopes being collapsed are then collected. Predictive models for different slope angles are proposed, which predict the run-out distance as a function of H, unit weight, residual cohesion, and residual friction angle. The proposed models are applicable for clay slopes with slope angles in the range of 30° to 45° and H in the range of 10 m to 30 m.
利用物质点法(substance point method, MPM)建立了黏土边坡的跳动距离预测模型,该模型可以模拟考虑土体应变软化效应的边坡渐进破坏过程。从NGA-West2数据库中选择了一组100个地面运动,然后进行缩放以进行斜坡的动力分析。边坡永久位移(D)可分为两类,即D小于0.4 m的“未破坏”类和D在10 ~ 15 m范围内的“破坏”类。研究发现,在“未失效”类别中,峰值地面速度(PGV)与D的相关性最高,而在“失效”类别中,所有地面运动强度测量(如PGV、峰值地面加速度)与D的相关性较低。因此,粘土边坡崩塌的跳动距离更多地与破坏模式有关,而不是与触发震动强度有关。在此基础上,建立了数千个具有不同坡角、坡高(H)、土密度、峰值和残余强度参数的边坡模型。然后收集斜坡坍塌的跳动距离。提出了不同坡角的预测模型,该模型预测了以H、单位重量、剩余黏聚力和剩余摩擦角为函数的跳动距离。所建模型适用于坡角为30°~ 45°、H为10 m ~ 30 m的粘土边坡。
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引用次数: 0
The role of social institutions in community resilience following extreme natural hazard events 极端自然灾害事件后社会机构在社区恢复力中的作用
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.20517/dpr.2023.01
E. Hassan, H. Mahmoud, B. Ellingwood
Social institutions such as hospitals and schools are among the main pillars of community stability. A drop in the functionality of hospitals and schools is likely to have short-term and long-term effects on a community, including a reduction in medical interventions, an increase in unschooled children, and population outmigration in search of essential social services. However, comprehensive community resilience models that consider the role played by social institutions in community stability following natural disasters are scarce at the present time. This paper provides a literature review and critical appraisal of previous studies on the resilience of hospital and school systems and their impact on community well-being. The review encompasses existing resilience models for single hospitals and schools, their role when connected with other hospitals and schools in a network, their reliance on each other as interdependent systems, and their role in community resilience and stability. Different mitigation strategies and policies to enhance hospital and school systems’ resilience after extreme natural hazards are also summarized. The paper concludes with a series of recommendations to improve current models for social institutions, enhance the connection between existing hospital and school resilience models and community resilience frameworks, and develop social stability indices that policymakers can use in preparing and mitigating future extreme events.
医院和学校等社会机构是社区稳定的主要支柱。医院和学校功能的下降可能对社区产生短期和长期影响,包括医疗干预减少、失学儿童增加以及人口向外迁移以寻求基本的社会服务。然而,考虑到社会机构在自然灾害后社区稳定中所起作用的综合社区恢复力模型目前很少。本文对医院和学校系统的弹性及其对社区福祉的影响的先前研究进行了文献综述和批判性评价。该审查包括单一医院和学校的现有复原力模型,它们与其他医院和学校在网络中连接时的作用,它们作为相互依赖的系统相互依赖,以及它们在社区复原力和稳定性中的作用。本文还总结了在极端自然灾害发生后提高医院和学校系统抵御能力的不同缓解策略和政策。本文最后提出了一系列建议,以改进当前的社会机构模型,加强现有医院和学校复原力模型与社区复原力框架之间的联系,并制定社会稳定指数,供决策者在准备和缓解未来极端事件时使用。
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引用次数: 0
Non-emergency responses in the 311 system during the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic: a case study of Kansas city COVID-19大流行早期311系统的非紧急响应:以堪萨斯城为例
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.20517/dpr.2022.08
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引用次数: 0
Unconditional and conditional simulation of nonstationary and non-Gaussian vector and field with prescribed marginal and correlation by using iteratively matched correlation 用迭代匹配相关法对非平稳和非高斯的矢量和场进行无条件和条件模拟
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.20517/dpr.2022.01
M. Y. Xiao, H. Hong
In many probabilistic analysis problems, the homogeneous/nonhomogeneous non-Gaussian field is represented as a mapped Gaussian field based on the Nataf translation system. We propose a new sample-based iterative procedure to estimate the underlying Gaussian correlation for homogeneous/nonhomogeneous non-Gaussian vector or field. The numerical procedure takes advantage that the range of feasible correlation coefficients for non-Gaussian random variables is bounded if the translation system is adopted. The estimated underlying Gaussian correlation is then employed for unconditional as well as conditional simulation of the non-Gaussian vector or field according to the theory of the translation process. We then present the steps for augmenting the simulated non-Gaussian field through the Karhunen-Loeve expansion for a refined discretized grid of the field. In addition, the steps to extend the procedure described in the previous section to the multi-dimensional field are highlighted. The application of the proposed algorithms is presented through numerical examples.
在许多概率分析问题中,齐次/非齐次非高斯场被表示为基于Nataf平移系统的映射高斯场。我们提出了一种新的基于样本的迭代方法来估计齐次/非齐次非高斯向量或场的潜在高斯相关性。数值计算过程充分利用了采用平移系统时非高斯随机变量可行相关系数范围有界的优点。然后,根据平移过程的理论,将估计的底层高斯相关用于非高斯矢量或场的无条件和条件模拟。然后,我们提出了通过Karhunen-Loeve展开对模拟的非高斯场进行细化离散网格扩展的步骤。此外,还强调了将前一节中描述的过程扩展到多维字段的步骤。通过数值算例介绍了所提算法的应用。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
Disaster Prevention and Resilience
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