This paper presents a new approach to the construction of game theoretic metamodels from data obtained through stochastic simulation. In this approach, stochastic kriging is used to estimate payoff functions of players involved in a game represented by a simulation model. Based on the estimated payoff functions, the players' best responses to the values of the decision variables chosen by the other players are calculated. In the approach, the concept of best response sets in the context of game theoretic simulation metamodeling is applied. These sets contain the values of the players' decision variables which cannot be excluded from being a best response and allow the identification of the potential Nash equilibria. The utilization of the approach is demonstrated with simulation examples where payoff functions are known a priori. Additionally, it is applied to data acquired by using a discrete event air combat simulation model.
{"title":"Game theoretic simulation metamodeling using stochastic kriging","authors":"Jouni Pousi, Jirka Poropudas, K. Virtanen","doi":"10.5555/2433508.2433687","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5555/2433508.2433687","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents a new approach to the construction of game theoretic metamodels from data obtained through stochastic simulation. In this approach, stochastic kriging is used to estimate payoff functions of players involved in a game represented by a simulation model. Based on the estimated payoff functions, the players' best responses to the values of the decision variables chosen by the other players are calculated. In the approach, the concept of best response sets in the context of game theoretic simulation metamodeling is applied. These sets contain the values of the players' decision variables which cannot be excluded from being a best response and allow the identification of the potential Nash equilibria. The utilization of the approach is demonstrated with simulation examples where payoff functions are known a priori. Additionally, it is applied to data acquired by using a discrete event air combat simulation model.","PeriodicalId":272260,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 2010 Winter Simulation Conference","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115240962","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2010-12-05DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2010.5678999
S. Abourizk, S. Hague, Y. Mohamed, A. Fayek
We present the development of a bidding game application designed to improve the decision making skills of students in estimating classes by allowing them to compete both against each other and against a virtual player developed using fuzzy logic concepts. The High Level Architecture (HLA) was used to develop a distributed model of the bidding process using different components (federates) that can cooperate in a large simulation model (federation). Each federate represents a role in the bidding process: general contractors, bank, virtual players, etc. These federates simulate bidding cycle activities and can each be run on separate computers. The Bidding Game is developed in the COnstruction SYnthetic Environment (COSYE), an integrated construction simulation platform; its development was used as part of a simulation course to teach the students how to develop collaborative simulation models and how to produce a final product as a team.
{"title":"An HLA-based bidding game with intelligent virtual player","authors":"S. Abourizk, S. Hague, Y. Mohamed, A. Fayek","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2010.5678999","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2010.5678999","url":null,"abstract":"We present the development of a bidding game application designed to improve the decision making skills of students in estimating classes by allowing them to compete both against each other and against a virtual player developed using fuzzy logic concepts. The High Level Architecture (HLA) was used to develop a distributed model of the bidding process using different components (federates) that can cooperate in a large simulation model (federation). Each federate represents a role in the bidding process: general contractors, bank, virtual players, etc. These federates simulate bidding cycle activities and can each be run on separate computers. The Bidding Game is developed in the COnstruction SYnthetic Environment (COSYE), an integrated construction simulation platform; its development was used as part of a simulation course to teach the students how to develop collaborative simulation models and how to produce a final product as a team.","PeriodicalId":272260,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 2010 Winter Simulation Conference","volume":"43 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127429651","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2010-12-05DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2010.5679140
T. Bergen-Hill, E. Page
This paper revisits a technique for determining structural equivalence between simulation models. Specifically brought under scrutiny are the restrictions for applying a rule that expands a compound event vertex when converting a simulation graph model (SGM) into an extended SGM. By checking for interdependencies of state variables within the vertex, one can ensure that the logical structure of the original model is preserved during expansion, allowing for “out-of-order” execution of events - thus permitting a greater class of models to be deemed structurally (and behaviorally) equivalent. An example is provided of establishing structural equivalence between two discrete event simulations derived from the same model, which benefits from the revised expansion rule.
{"title":"Out-of-order execution and structural equivalence of simulation models","authors":"T. Bergen-Hill, E. Page","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2010.5679140","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2010.5679140","url":null,"abstract":"This paper revisits a technique for determining structural equivalence between simulation models. Specifically brought under scrutiny are the restrictions for applying a rule that expands a compound event vertex when converting a simulation graph model (SGM) into an extended SGM. By checking for interdependencies of state variables within the vertex, one can ensure that the logical structure of the original model is preserved during expansion, allowing for “out-of-order” execution of events - thus permitting a greater class of models to be deemed structurally (and behaviorally) equivalent. An example is provided of establishing structural equivalence between two discrete event simulations derived from the same model, which benefits from the revised expansion rule.","PeriodicalId":272260,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 2010 Winter Simulation Conference","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127524257","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Models of dynamic systems are often constructed to improve system performance by identifying and modifying structures and parameters that drive system behavior. Once identified, these can be used to design and test policies for performance improvement. A preliminary step in developing policies is the identification of high leverage parameters and structures, the influential model sections that drive system behavior. The current work describes the use of statistical screening as a tool to improve model understanding, explanation, and development with a six step process. Statistical screening offers system modelers a user-friendly tool that can be used to help explain how model structure drives behavior.
{"title":"Improving model understanding using statistical screening","authors":"Timothy R. B. Taylor, David N. Ford, A. Ford","doi":"10.1002/SDR.428","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/SDR.428","url":null,"abstract":"Models of dynamic systems are often constructed to improve system performance by identifying and modifying structures and parameters that drive system behavior. Once identified, these can be used to design and test policies for performance improvement. A preliminary step in developing policies is the identification of high leverage parameters and structures, the influential model sections that drive system behavior. The current work describes the use of statistical screening as a tool to improve model understanding, explanation, and development with a six step process. Statistical screening offers system modelers a user-friendly tool that can be used to help explain how model structure drives behavior.","PeriodicalId":272260,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 2010 Winter Simulation Conference","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125374029","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2010-12-05DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2010.5679113
J. Miller, Jun Han, M. Hybinette
Progress in programming paradigms and languages has over time influenced the way that simulation programs are written. Modern object-oriented, functional programming languages are expressive enough to define embedded Domain Specific Languages (DSLs). The Scala programming language is used to implement ScalaTion that supports several popular simulation modeling paradigms. As a case study, ScalaTion is used to consider how language features of object-oriented, functional programming languages and Scala in particular can be used to write simulation programs that are clear, concise and intuitive to simulation modelers. The dichotomy between “model specification” and “simulation program” is also considered both historically and in light of the potential narrowing of the gap afforded by embedded DSLs.
{"title":"Using Domain Specific Language for modeling and simulation: ScalaTion as a case study","authors":"J. Miller, Jun Han, M. Hybinette","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2010.5679113","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2010.5679113","url":null,"abstract":"Progress in programming paradigms and languages has over time influenced the way that simulation programs are written. Modern object-oriented, functional programming languages are expressive enough to define embedded Domain Specific Languages (DSLs). The Scala programming language is used to implement ScalaTion that supports several popular simulation modeling paradigms. As a case study, ScalaTion is used to consider how language features of object-oriented, functional programming languages and Scala in particular can be used to write simulation programs that are clear, concise and intuitive to simulation modelers. The dichotomy between “model specification” and “simulation program” is also considered both historically and in light of the potential narrowing of the gap afforded by embedded DSLs.","PeriodicalId":272260,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 2010 Winter Simulation Conference","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125722329","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2010-12-05DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2010.5679104
W. Song, Yi-chun Chen
This paper presents a user-friendly display, in a ten-by-eight matrix format, of a collection of 80 univariate distributions and their interrelationships. A simplified five-by-five matrix, showing only 25 families, is designed for student use. These relationships provide rapid access to information that must otherwise be found through a time-consuming search of numerous sources.
{"title":"Simulation input models: Relationships among eighty univariate distributions displayed in a matrix format","authors":"W. Song, Yi-chun Chen","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2010.5679104","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2010.5679104","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents a user-friendly display, in a ten-by-eight matrix format, of a collection of 80 univariate distributions and their interrelationships. A simplified five-by-five matrix, showing only 25 families, is designed for student use. These relationships provide rapid access to information that must otherwise be found through a time-consuming search of numerous sources.","PeriodicalId":272260,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 2010 Winter Simulation Conference","volume":"62 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126586872","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2010-12-05DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2010.5679110
P. Fishwick, A. Coffey, Rasha Kamhawi, Julie Henderson
Computer simulation has been widely deployed by the military for force-on-force based training but only more recently for training researchers, analysts, and war-fighters in matters of cross cultural sensitivity. This latter type of training gives the trainee a sense of “being inside” a target culture. We built the Second China Project as a hybrid immersive, knowledge-based software platform for use in cultural training. Is this training effective? More specifically, what are the effects of immersion on memory and other cognitive variables? We chose to base our research questions, not around a specific user group, but more generally around a category of training system—one involving the use of multi-user virtual environments (MUVEs). We present the architecture of an experiment designed to test whether MUVEs are effective training platforms, and to explain the process used in developing a testing environment to determine the precise nature of that effectiveness. We also discuss lessons learned from the earlier pilot study and ongoing experiment.
{"title":"An experimental design and preliminary results for a cultural training system simulation","authors":"P. Fishwick, A. Coffey, Rasha Kamhawi, Julie Henderson","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2010.5679110","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2010.5679110","url":null,"abstract":"Computer simulation has been widely deployed by the military for force-on-force based training but only more recently for training researchers, analysts, and war-fighters in matters of cross cultural sensitivity. This latter type of training gives the trainee a sense of “being inside” a target culture. We built the Second China Project as a hybrid immersive, knowledge-based software platform for use in cultural training. Is this training effective? More specifically, what are the effects of immersion on memory and other cognitive variables? We chose to base our research questions, not around a specific user group, but more generally around a category of training system—one involving the use of multi-user virtual environments (MUVEs). We present the architecture of an experiment designed to test whether MUVEs are effective training platforms, and to explain the process used in developing a testing environment to determine the precise nature of that effectiveness. We also discuss lessons learned from the earlier pilot study and ongoing experiment.","PeriodicalId":272260,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 2010 Winter Simulation Conference","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124876860","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2010-12-05DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2010.5679103
R. Kress, Alma Cemerlic, Jessica Kress, Jacob Varghese
Particular applications require analysts to estimate plant throughput from external observables via inverse modeling techniques. For example, auditors, law enforcement personnel, and financial planners might need to perform these types of analyses. Researchers at the SimCenter at The University of Tennessee Chattanooga have elected to model several simple basic production models as well as a fictional bicycle factory to do a preliminary investigation into the viability of implementing an inverse model using a discrete- event simulation software package. The fictional bicycle model will eventually include several simulation features such as a discrete event component, a flow portion, an agent based part, equation based power portion, and optimization. The results indicate that the approach is viable and that inverse modeling can be used to estimate internal activities. Future work will involve more detailed models with larger parameter sets.
{"title":"Inverse discrete event modeling for facility parameter estimation","authors":"R. Kress, Alma Cemerlic, Jessica Kress, Jacob Varghese","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2010.5679103","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2010.5679103","url":null,"abstract":"Particular applications require analysts to estimate plant throughput from external observables via inverse modeling techniques. For example, auditors, law enforcement personnel, and financial planners might need to perform these types of analyses. Researchers at the SimCenter at The University of Tennessee Chattanooga have elected to model several simple basic production models as well as a fictional bicycle factory to do a preliminary investigation into the viability of implementing an inverse model using a discrete- event simulation software package. The fictional bicycle model will eventually include several simulation features such as a discrete event component, a flow portion, an agent based part, equation based power portion, and optimization. The results indicate that the approach is viable and that inverse modeling can be used to estimate internal activities. Future work will involve more detailed models with larger parameter sets.","PeriodicalId":272260,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 2010 Winter Simulation Conference","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121943064","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2010-12-05DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2010.5678862
T. B. Brito, R. Silva, R. Botter, N. N. Pereira, A. C. Medina
This paper aims the development and employment of a computational tool to support strategic decisions about the planning and sizing of the logistics and production elements of a steel plant (stockyards, transportation fleet, etc.). This tool corresponds to a hybrid software application able to analyze and evaluate the complex logistic problem proposed by combining the techniques of Discrete Event Simulation (DES) Modeling and Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). Also, are presented the proposed steel plant logistic system characteristics, as well as the methodologies applied to build the computational tool and to analyze the simulation results. The study concludes that the DES model combined with MCDA methodology is highly efficient regarding complex logistic systems major characteristics assessment.
{"title":"Discrete event simulation combined with multi-criteria decision analysis applied to steel plant logistics system planning","authors":"T. B. Brito, R. Silva, R. Botter, N. N. Pereira, A. C. Medina","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2010.5678862","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2010.5678862","url":null,"abstract":"This paper aims the development and employment of a computational tool to support strategic decisions about the planning and sizing of the logistics and production elements of a steel plant (stockyards, transportation fleet, etc.). This tool corresponds to a hybrid software application able to analyze and evaluate the complex logistic problem proposed by combining the techniques of Discrete Event Simulation (DES) Modeling and Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). Also, are presented the proposed steel plant logistic system characteristics, as well as the methodologies applied to build the computational tool and to analyze the simulation results. The study concludes that the DES model combined with MCDA methodology is highly efficient regarding complex logistic systems major characteristics assessment.","PeriodicalId":272260,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 2010 Winter Simulation Conference","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122766510","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2010-12-05DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2010.5679114
Ross Gore, P. Reynolds
Stochastic simulations frequently exhibit behaviors that are difficult to recreate and analyze, owing largely to the stochastics themselves, and consequent program dependency chains that can defy human reasoning capabilities. We present a novel approach called Markov Chain Execution Traces (MCETs) for efficiently representing sampled stochastic simulation execution traces and ultimately driving semiautomated analysis methods that require accurate, efficiently generated candidate execution traces. The MCET approach is evaluated, using new and established measures, against both additional novel and existing approaches for computing dynamic program slices in stochastic simulations. MCET's superior performance is established. Finally, a description of how users can apply MCETs to their own stochastic simulations and a discussion of the new analyses MCETs can enable are presented.
{"title":"Improved methods and measures for computing dynamic program slices in stochastic simulations","authors":"Ross Gore, P. Reynolds","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2010.5679114","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2010.5679114","url":null,"abstract":"Stochastic simulations frequently exhibit behaviors that are difficult to recreate and analyze, owing largely to the stochastics themselves, and consequent program dependency chains that can defy human reasoning capabilities. We present a novel approach called Markov Chain Execution Traces (MCETs) for efficiently representing sampled stochastic simulation execution traces and ultimately driving semiautomated analysis methods that require accurate, efficiently generated candidate execution traces. The MCET approach is evaluated, using new and established measures, against both additional novel and existing approaches for computing dynamic program slices in stochastic simulations. MCET's superior performance is established. Finally, a description of how users can apply MCETs to their own stochastic simulations and a discussion of the new analyses MCETs can enable are presented.","PeriodicalId":272260,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 2010 Winter Simulation Conference","volume":"55 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122829378","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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