I propose to identify announcement-specific decompositions of asset price changes into monetary policy shocks exploiting heteroskedasticity in intraday data, accommodating both changes in the nature of shocks and the state of the economy across announcements. I compute decompositions with respect to Fed Funds, forward guidance, asset purchase, and Fed information shocks from January 1996 to December 2019. The decompositions illustrate which announcements of unconventional policy measures had significant effects during the Great Recession. Overall, forward guidance and asset purchases have significant effects on yields, spreads, equities, and uncertainty, but the effects of monetary policy vary over time, particularly asset purchases.
{"title":"Announcement-Specific Decompositions of Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks and Their Effects","authors":"","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01315","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01315","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 I propose to identify announcement-specific decompositions of asset price changes into monetary policy shocks exploiting heteroskedasticity in intraday data, accommodating both changes in the nature of shocks and the state of the economy across announcements. I compute decompositions with respect to Fed Funds, forward guidance, asset purchase, and Fed information shocks from January 1996 to December 2019. The decompositions illustrate which announcements of unconventional policy measures had significant effects during the Great Recession. Overall, forward guidance and asset purchases have significant effects on yields, spreads, equities, and uncertainty, but the effects of monetary policy vary over time, particularly asset purchases.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132240041","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This paper combines several large-scale surveys and empirical strategies to shed new light on the determinants of cooperative behavior. We provide evidence indicating that the level of trust maximizing subjective well-being tends to be above the income maximizing level. Higher trust is also linked to more cooperative and pro-social behaviors, including the private provision of global public goods such as climate change mitigation. Consistent with “warm glow” theories of pro-social behavior, our results indicate that individuals may enjoy being more cooperative than what would lead them to maximize income, which can be reflected in higher levels of subjective well-being.
{"title":"Trust, Happiness, and Pro-Social Behavior","authors":"Stefano Carattini, Matthias Roesti","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01303","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01303","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper combines several large-scale surveys and empirical strategies to shed new light on the determinants of cooperative behavior. We provide evidence indicating that the level of trust maximizing subjective well-being tends to be above the income maximizing level. Higher trust is also linked to more cooperative and pro-social behaviors, including the private provision of global public goods such as climate change mitigation. Consistent with “warm glow” theories of pro-social behavior, our results indicate that individuals may enjoy being more cooperative than what would lead them to maximize income, which can be reflected in higher levels of subjective well-being.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"43 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135598812","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mu-Jeung Yang, Marinho Bertanha, Nathan Seegert, Maclean Gaulin, Adam Looney, Brian Orleans, Andrew T. Pavia, Kristina Stratford, Matthew Samore, Steven Alder
Abstract We provide a method to track the active prevalence of COVID-19 in real time, correcting for time-varying sample selection in symptom-based testing data and incomplete tracking of recovered cases and fatalities. Our method only requires publicly available data on positive testing rates in combination with one parameter, which we estimate based on a representative randomized sample of nearly 10,000 individuals tested in Utah in May and June 2020. We validate our method using external studies in Indiana in April 2020 and two counties in Utah in March 2021. In all three locations and times, our estimates of latent prevalence are within the 95 percent confidence intervals of prevalence estimates from randomized testing. Applying our method to all 50 states, we show that true prevalence is 2-3 times higher than publicly reported.
{"title":"What Is the Active Prevalence of COVID-19?","authors":"Mu-Jeung Yang, Marinho Bertanha, Nathan Seegert, Maclean Gaulin, Adam Looney, Brian Orleans, Andrew T. Pavia, Kristina Stratford, Matthew Samore, Steven Alder","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01302","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01302","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We provide a method to track the active prevalence of COVID-19 in real time, correcting for time-varying sample selection in symptom-based testing data and incomplete tracking of recovered cases and fatalities. Our method only requires publicly available data on positive testing rates in combination with one parameter, which we estimate based on a representative randomized sample of nearly 10,000 individuals tested in Utah in May and June 2020. We validate our method using external studies in Indiana in April 2020 and two counties in Utah in March 2021. In all three locations and times, our estimates of latent prevalence are within the 95 percent confidence intervals of prevalence estimates from randomized testing. Applying our method to all 50 states, we show that true prevalence is 2-3 times higher than publicly reported.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"140 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135598952","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Anselm Hager, Lukas Hensel, Christopher Roth, Andreas Stegmann
We conduct a natural field experiment with a major European party to test whether giving party supporters more voice increases their engagement in the party's electoral campaign. In the experiment, the party asked a random subset of supporters for their opinions on the importance of different policy areas. Giving supporters opportunities to voice their opinions increases their engagement in the campaign as measured using behavioral data from the party's smartphone application. Survey data reveals that giving voice also increases other margins of campaign effort as well as perceived voice. Our evidence highlights the importance of voice for increasing political engagement.
{"title":"Voice and Political Engagement: Evidence from a Field Experiment","authors":"Anselm Hager, Lukas Hensel, Christopher Roth, Andreas Stegmann","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01320","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01320","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We conduct a natural field experiment with a major European party to test whether giving party supporters more voice increases their engagement in the party's electoral campaign. In the experiment, the party asked a random subset of supporters for their opinions on the importance of different policy areas. Giving supporters opportunities to voice their opinions increases their engagement in the campaign as measured using behavioral data from the party's smartphone application. Survey data reveals that giving voice also increases other margins of campaign effort as well as perceived voice. Our evidence highlights the importance of voice for increasing political engagement.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"82 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124576362","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract We exploit an unanticipated labor market reform to estimate the effects of pro-cyclical changes in long-term unemployment assistance (UA). In July 2012, Spain raised the minimum age to receive unlimited-duration UA from 52 to 55. Using a difference-in-differences design, we document that shorter benefits caused (i) shorter non-employment duration, especially among younger workers; (ii) higher labor force exit and other programs' take-up, especially among older workers; (iii) lower wages upon re-employment. The reform induced moderate government savings. Our results highlight the importance of considering the interplay with labor market conditions when designing long-term benefit schedules that affect workers close to retirement.
{"title":"Bringing Them In or Pushing Them Out? The Labor Market Effects of Pro-Cyclical Unemployment Assistance Changes","authors":"Gerard Domènech-Arumí, Silvia Vannutelli","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01310","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01310","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We exploit an unanticipated labor market reform to estimate the effects of pro-cyclical changes in long-term unemployment assistance (UA). In July 2012, Spain raised the minimum age to receive unlimited-duration UA from 52 to 55. Using a difference-in-differences design, we document that shorter benefits caused (i) shorter non-employment duration, especially among younger workers; (ii) higher labor force exit and other programs' take-up, especially among older workers; (iii) lower wages upon re-employment. The reform induced moderate government savings. Our results highlight the importance of considering the interplay with labor market conditions when designing long-term benefit schedules that affect workers close to retirement.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135598951","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract We document the effect of unemployment insurance generosity on divorce and fertility using an identification strategy that leverages state-level changes in maximum benefits over time and comparisons across workers who have been laid off and those that have not been laid off. The results indicate that higher maximum benefit levels mitigate the effects of layoffs. In particular, they mitigate increases in divorce associated with men's layoffs; increases in separations associated with women's layoffs; reductions in fertility associated with men's layoffs; and increases in fertility associated with women's layoffs.
{"title":"Stable Income, Stable Family","authors":"Jason M. Lindo, Krishna Regmi, Isaac D. Swensen","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01304","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01304","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We document the effect of unemployment insurance generosity on divorce and fertility using an identification strategy that leverages state-level changes in maximum benefits over time and comparisons across workers who have been laid off and those that have not been laid off. The results indicate that higher maximum benefit levels mitigate the effects of layoffs. In particular, they mitigate increases in divorce associated with men's layoffs; increases in separations associated with women's layoffs; reductions in fertility associated with men's layoffs; and increases in fertility associated with women's layoffs.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135698389","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract We show that over the 20th century, in Switzerland the ratio of private wealth to national income, βpt, did not follow a U-shaped pattern, thereby contrasting the evolution in most European countries. Instead, the ratio was exceptionally stable at around 500%. We argue that this consistently high βpt was the result of geopolitical factors combined with Switzerland's capital friendly policy-making. Since the turn of the century, however, βpt has been on a rapid rise to reach 793% in 2020. This exceptionally fast increase is mainly driven by large capital gains, especially in housing wealth.
{"title":"Wealth-Income Ratios in Free Market Capitalism: Switzerland, 1900-2020","authors":"Enea Baselgia, Isabel Z. Martínez","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01313","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01313","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We show that over the 20th century, in Switzerland the ratio of private wealth to national income, βpt, did not follow a U-shaped pattern, thereby contrasting the evolution in most European countries. Instead, the ratio was exceptionally stable at around 500%. We argue that this consistently high βpt was the result of geopolitical factors combined with Switzerland's capital friendly policy-making. Since the turn of the century, however, βpt has been on a rapid rise to reach 793% in 2020. This exceptionally fast increase is mainly driven by large capital gains, especially in housing wealth.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"51 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135698391","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues, Adrian L. Torchiana, Ted Rosenbaum, Paul Scott
Satellite-based image classification facilitates low-cost measurement of the Earth's surface composition. However, misclassified imagery can lead to misleading conclusions about transition processes. We propose a correction for transition rate estimates based on the econometric measurement error literature to extract the signal (truth) from its noisy measurement (satellite-based classifications). No ground-truth data is required in the implementation. Our proposed correction produces consistent estimates of transition rates, confirmed by longitudinal validation data, while transition rates without correction are severely biased. Using our approach, we show how eliminating deforestation in Brazil's Atlantic forest region through 2040 could save $100 billion in CO2 emissions.
{"title":"Improving Estimates of Transitions from Satellite Data: A Hidden Markov Model Approach","authors":"Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues, Adrian L. Torchiana, Ted Rosenbaum, Paul Scott","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01301","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01301","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Satellite-based image classification facilitates low-cost measurement of the Earth's surface composition. However, misclassified imagery can lead to misleading conclusions about transition processes. We propose a correction for transition rate estimates based on the econometric measurement error literature to extract the signal (truth) from its noisy measurement (satellite-based classifications). No ground-truth data is required in the implementation. Our proposed correction produces consistent estimates of transition rates, confirmed by longitudinal validation data, while transition rates without correction are severely biased. Using our approach, we show how eliminating deforestation in Brazil's Atlantic forest region through 2040 could save $100 billion in CO2 emissions.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"319 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125842150","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
I show that U.S. corporate elites use contributions to political campaigns as a tool of political influence by leveraging a new panel on the contributions to members of U.S. Congress (MCs) from 401,557 corporate leaders of 14,807 U.S. corporations over 1999-2018. Donations increase by 11% when a politician is assigned to a committee dealing with policy issues relevant to a corporate leader's company. The effect is driven by donations to MCs with the greatest power in the committees. I estimate that, absent an influence motive, donations from corporate leaders during this period would have been lower by $20 million.
{"title":"Influence-Seeking in U.S. Corporate Elites' Campaign Contribution Behavior","authors":"Edoardo Teso","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01321","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01321","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 I show that U.S. corporate elites use contributions to political campaigns as a tool of political influence by leveraging a new panel on the contributions to members of U.S. Congress (MCs) from 401,557 corporate leaders of 14,807 U.S. corporations over 1999-2018. Donations increase by 11% when a politician is assigned to a committee dealing with policy issues relevant to a corporate leader's company. The effect is driven by donations to MCs with the greatest power in the committees. I estimate that, absent an influence motive, donations from corporate leaders during this period would have been lower by $20 million.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"146 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115786210","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Gabriel Chodick, Yoav Goldstein, Ity Shurtz, Dan Zeltzer
Abstract We examine how physician decisions are impacted by difficult cases—encounters with newly diagnosed cancer patients. Using detailed administrative data, we compare primary care physicians' decisions in visits that occurred before and after difficult cases and matched comparison cases by the same physicians on other dates. Immediately following a difficult case, physicians increase referrals for common tests, including diagnostic tests unrelated to cancer. The effect lasts only for about an hour and is not driven by patient selection or schedule disruption. The results highlight difficult encounters as a source of variability in physician practice.
{"title":"Challenging Encounters and Within-Physician Practice Variability","authors":"Gabriel Chodick, Yoav Goldstein, Ity Shurtz, Dan Zeltzer","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01314","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01314","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We examine how physician decisions are impacted by difficult cases—encounters with newly diagnosed cancer patients. Using detailed administrative data, we compare primary care physicians' decisions in visits that occurred before and after difficult cases and matched comparison cases by the same physicians on other dates. Immediately following a difficult case, physicians increase referrals for common tests, including diagnostic tests unrelated to cancer. The effect lasts only for about an hour and is not driven by patient selection or schedule disruption. The results highlight difficult encounters as a source of variability in physician practice.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"100 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135698387","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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