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Is Investment-Cash Flow Sensitivity Caused by Agency Costs or Asymmetric Information? Evidence from the UK 投资-现金流敏感性是由代理成本还是信息不对称引起的?来自英国的证据
Pub Date : 2005-02-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.664981
G. Pawlina, L. Renneboog
We investigate the investment-cash flow sensitivity of a large sample of the UK listed firms and confirm that investment is strongly cash flow-sensitive. Is this sensitivity a result of agency problems when managers with high discretion overinvest, or of asymmetric information when managers owning equity are underinvesting if the market (erroneously) demands too high a risk premium? We find that investment-cash flow sensitivity results mainly from the agency costs of free cash flow. The magnitude of the relationship depends on insider ownership in a non-monotonic way. Furthermore, we obtain that outside blockholders, such as financial institutions, the government, and industrial firms (only at high control levels), reduce the cash flow sensitivity of investment via effective monitoring. Finally, financial institutions appear to play a role in mitigating informational asymmetries between firms and capital markets. We corroborate our findings by performing additional tests based on the stochastic efficient frontier approach and power indices.
我们调查了一个大样本的英国上市公司的投资-现金流敏感性,并证实投资是强烈的现金流敏感。当拥有高度自由裁量权的基金经理过度投资时,这种敏感性是代理问题的结果吗?或者当市场(错误地)要求过高的风险溢价时,拥有股权的基金经理投资不足时,这种敏感性是信息不对称的结果吗?研究发现,投资-现金流敏感性主要来源于自由现金流的代理成本。这种关系的大小以一种非单调的方式取决于内部人的所有权。此外,我们得到外部大股东,如金融机构、政府和工业企业(仅在高控制水平下),通过有效的监控降低了投资的现金流敏感性。最后,金融机构似乎在缓解企业和资本市场之间的信息不对称方面发挥了作用。我们通过基于随机有效前沿方法和功率指数进行额外的测试来证实我们的发现。
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引用次数: 249
A Reconsideration of Tax Shield Valuation 对税盾估值的再思考
Pub Date : 2004-08-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.492603
E. R. Arzac, L. Glosten
"A quarter-century ago, Miles and Ezzell l1980r solved the valuation problem of a firm that follows a constant leverage ratio L e D/S. However, to this day, the proper discounting of free cash flows and the computation of WACC are often misunderstood by scholars and practitioners alike. For example, it is common for textbooks and fairness opinions to discount free cash flows at WACC with beta input β" S e [1 p l1 - "τ"r"L"]"β" "u" , "although the latter is not consistent with the assumption of constant leverage. This confusion extends to the valuation of tax shields and the proper implementation of adjusted present value procedures. In this paper, we derive a general result on the value of tax shields, obtain the correct value of tax shields for perpetuities, and state the correct valuation formulas for arbitrary cash flows under a constant leverage financial policy." Copyright Blackwell Publishers Ltd, 2005.
25年前,Miles和Ezzell在1980年解决了一家公司的估值问题,该公司遵循恒定的杠杆比率(L / D/S)。然而,直到今天,自由现金流的适当折现和WACC的计算经常被学者和从业者所误解。例如,教科书和公平意见通常用β输入β“S”e [1 p l1 -“τ”r“L”]“β”“u”来贴现WACC的自由现金流,尽管后者与恒定杠杆的假设不一致。这种混淆延伸到税盾的估值和调整后现值程序的适当实施。在本文中,我们得到了关于税盾价值的一般结果,得到了永续投资税盾的正确价值,并给出了恒定杠杆金融政策下任意现金流量的正确估值公式。版权所有布莱克威尔出版有限公司,2005。
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引用次数: 138
Paying People to Lie: The Truth About the Budgeting Process 花钱让人撒谎:关于预算过程的真相
Pub Date : 2003-09-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.267651
M. C. Jensen
This paper analyzes the counterproductive effects associated with using budgets or targets in an organisation's performance measurement and compensation systems. Paying people on the basis of how their performance relates to a budget or target causes people to game the system and in doing so to destroy value in two main ways: (a) both superiors and subordinates lie in the formulation of budgets and, therefore, gut the budgeting process of the critical unbiased information that is required to coordinate the activities of disparate parts of an organisation, and (b) they game the realisation of the budgets or targets and in doing so destroy value for their organisations. Although most managers and analysts understand that budget gaming is widespread, few understand the huge costs it imposes on organisations and how to lower them. My purpose in this paper is to explain exactly how this happens and how managers and firms can stop this counter-productive cycle. The key lies not in destroying the budgeting systems, but in changing the way organisations pay people. In particular to stop this highly counter-productive behaviour we must stop using budgets or targets in the compensation formulas and promotion systems for employees and managers. This means taking all kinks, discontinuities and non-linearities out of the pay-for-performance profile of each employee and manager. Such purely linear compensation formulas provide no incentives to lie, or to withhold and distort information, or to game the system. While the evidence on the costs of these systems is not extensive, I believe that solving the problems could easily result in large productivity and value increases - sometimes as much as 50-100% improvements in productivity. I believe the less intensive reliance on such budget/target systems is an important cause of the increased productivity of entrepreneurial and LBO firms. Moreover, eliminating budget/target-induced gaming from the management system will eliminate one of the major forces leading to the general loss of integrity in organisations. People are taught to lie in these pervasive budgeting systems because if they tell the truth they often get punished and if they lie they get rewarded. Once taught to lie in this system people generally cannot help but extend that behaviour to all sorts of other relationships in the organisation.
本文分析了在组织绩效评估和薪酬体系中使用预算或目标所产生的反生产效应。根据员工的表现与预算或目标的关系来支付薪酬,会导致人们在系统中进行博弈,从而从两个主要方面破坏价值:(a)上级和下属都参与预算的制定,因此,破坏了协调组织不同部分活动所需的关键公正信息的预算编制过程;(b)他们操纵预算或目标的实现,并在这样做时破坏了组织的价值。尽管大多数管理者和分析师都明白,预算博弈很普遍,但很少有人了解它给组织带来的巨大成本,以及如何降低成本。我在本文中的目的是解释这种情况是如何发生的,以及管理者和企业如何阻止这种适得其反的循环。关键不在于摧毁预算系统,而在于改变组织支付员工薪酬的方式。特别是为了制止这种高度适得其反的行为,我们必须停止在雇员和管理人员的薪酬公式和晋升制度中使用预算或目标。这意味着从每位员工和经理的绩效薪酬档案中剔除所有的纠结、不连续和非线性因素。这种纯粹线性的薪酬公式没有提供说谎、隐瞒和扭曲信息或玩弄制度的动机。虽然关于这些系统成本的证据并不广泛,但我相信解决这些问题可以很容易地提高生产率和价值——有时生产率可以提高50-100%。我认为,对这种预算/目标系统的依赖程度较低,是创业型和杠杆收购公司生产率提高的一个重要原因。此外,从管理系统中消除预算/目标诱导的博弈将消除导致组织普遍丧失诚信的主要力量之一。在这些普遍存在的预算系统中,人们被教导要撒谎,因为如果他们说实话,他们通常会受到惩罚,如果他们撒谎,他们会得到奖励。一旦在这个体系中学会撒谎,人们通常会情不自禁地将这种行为扩展到组织中的其他各种关系中。
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引用次数: 371
A Conditional Assessment of the Relationships between the Major World Bond Markets 对世界主要债券市场之间关系的条件评估
Pub Date : 2003-06-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.586562
Delroy M. Hunter, David P. Simon
This paper uses a bivariate GARCH framework to examine the lead-lag relations and the conditional correlations between 10-year US government bond returns and their counterparts from the UK, Germany, and Japan. We find that while mean and volatility spillovers exist between the major international bond markets, they are much weaker than those between equity markets. The results also indicate that the correlations between the US and other major bond market returns are time varying and are driven by changing macroeconomic and market conditions. However, in contrast to the finding that the benefits of international diversification in equity markets evaporate during high-stress periods, we find that the benefits of diversification across major government bond markets do not decrease during periods of extremely high bond market volatility or following extremely negative US and foreign bond returns.
本文使用二元GARCH框架来检验10年期美国政府债券收益率与英国、德国和日本政府债券收益率之间的先行滞后关系和条件相关性。我们发现,虽然主要国际债券市场之间存在均值和波动率溢出效应,但它们远弱于股票市场之间的溢出效应。结果还表明,美国和其他主要债券市场回报之间的相关性是时变的,并受到不断变化的宏观经济和市场条件的驱动。然而,与股票市场国际多元化的好处在高压力时期蒸发的发现相反,我们发现,在债券市场波动极高或美国和外国债券回报极端负的时期,主要政府债券市场的多元化好处并没有减少。
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引用次数: 58
Who Controls Us? 谁在控制我们?
Pub Date : 2003-06-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.399801
Yoser Gadhoum, Larry H. P. Lang, L. Young
Berle and Means asserted that US corporations typically have dispersed shareholders; their evidence did not support this conclusion. Today, 59.74% of US corporations have ‘controlling shareholders’ who hold at least 10% of the shares; 24.57% are controlled and managed by a family; 16.33% are controlled by a widely‐held financial institution; 13.55% are controlled through family trusts. In all size ranges, the USA has more corporations controlled by families than by financial institutions. In almost all size ranges, it has a higher percentage of family‐controlled corporations than any of next four largest economies.
伯利和米恩斯断言,美国公司的股东通常是分散的;他们的证据并不支持这一结论。如今,59.74%的美国公司拥有至少持有10%股份的“控股股东”;24.57%由家族控制和管理;16.33%由广泛持有的金融机构控制;13.55%通过家族信托控制。在所有规模范围内,美国由家族控制的公司多于由金融机构控制的公司。在几乎所有规模范围内,美国家族控股企业的比例都高于排名其后的四大经济体中的任何一个。
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引用次数: 99
Investor Sentiment and the Closed-End Fund Puzzle: Out-of-Sample Evidence 投资者情绪与封闭式基金之谜:样本外证据
Pub Date : 2002-12-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.394960
John A. Doukas, Nikolaos T. Milonas
In this paper we examine the proposition that small investor sentiment, measured by the change in the discount/premium on closed-end funds, is an important factor in stock returns. We conduct an out-of-sample test of the investor sentiment hypothesis in a market environment that is more likely to be prone to investor sentiment than the USA. We fail to provide supporting evidence for the claim of Lee et al. (1991) that investor sentiment affects the risk of common stocks. Consistent with Elton et al. (1998), who show that investor sentiment does not enter the return generating process, our tests do not detect investor sentiment in a capital market that is more susceptible to small investor sentiment. Our results provide additional support against the claim that investor sentiment represents an independent and systematic asset pricing risk.
在本文中,我们研究了一个命题,即小投资者的情绪,由封闭式基金的折扣/溢价的变化来衡量,是股票收益的一个重要因素。我们在一个比美国更容易受到投资者情绪影响的市场环境中对投资者情绪假设进行了样本外检验。对于Lee et al.(1991)认为投资者情绪影响普通股风险的观点,我们没有提供支持性的证据。与Elton等人(1998)一致,他们表明投资者情绪不进入回报产生过程,我们的测试没有检测到资本市场中更容易受到小投资者情绪影响的投资者情绪。我们的研究结果为投资者情绪代表独立和系统的资产定价风险的说法提供了额外的支持。
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引用次数: 75
Diversification, Ownership and Control of Swedish Corporations 瑞典公司的多元化、所有权和控制权
Pub Date : 2001-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.291572
John A. Doukas, N. Travlos, M. Holmén
We study the short- and long-term valuation effects of Swedish takeovers. Using a sample of 93 bidding firms that acquired 101 targets between 1980 and 1995, we find that diversifying acquisitions lead to a negative market reaction and deterioration of the operating performance of the bidder. Announcement and performance gains in each of the three years following the acquisition occur only when bidders expand their core rather than their peripheral lines of business. Our findings suggest that focused acquisitions lead to greater synergies and operating efficiencies than diversifying acquisitions. Intra-group acquisitions, however, show that bidders do not realise significant gains whether they adopt diversifying or focusing investment strategies by purchasing firms controlled by the Wallenberg and SHB conglomerate groups. Intra-group targets realize significant gains regardless bidder’s investment strategy. Finally, the evidence does not support the view that intra-conglomerate acquisitions are associated with expropriation of minority shareholders. However, they appear to enhance the control rights of large shareholders of the bidding firm.
我们研究了瑞典收购的短期和长期估值效应。以1980 - 1995年间收购101个目标的93家投标公司为样本,我们发现多元化收购导致了市场的负面反应和投标人经营绩效的恶化。在收购后的三年中,只有当竞标者扩大其核心业务而不是外围业务时,公告和业绩才会有所增长。我们的研究结果表明,集中型收购比多元化收购带来更大的协同效应和运营效率。然而,集团内部收购表明,无论是通过收购瓦伦堡集团(Wallenberg)和SHB集团控制的公司,采取多元化或集中投资策略,竞标者都没有实现显著收益。无论投标人的投资策略如何,集团内部目标都能实现显著收益。最后,证据不支持企业集团内部收购与少数股东被征用有关的观点。然而,它们似乎增强了投标公司大股东的控制权。
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引用次数: 65
Do Insider Trading Laws Work? 内幕交易法管用吗?
Pub Date : 2000-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.248417
Arturo Bris
By calculating an estimated measure of undetected insider trading, this paper shows that profits made by informed corporate insiders prior to tender offer announcements increase after the first enforcement of insider trading laws. I analyze the effects of Insider Trading regulation on a sample of 5,099 acquisitions in 56 different countries, and estimate the profits due to insider trading from the abnormal volume in the weeks prior to the announcement, under the assumption that insiders purchase those shares at the prevailing price and hold them until the public announcement. I find that laws that prosecute insider trading fail to eliminate profits made by insiders, and make acquisitions more expensive. Therefore, by increasing the market reaction to an acquisition, insider trading laws make it profitable to violate them.
通过计算未被发现的内幕交易的估计测度,本文表明,在首次执行内幕交易法后,在收购要约公告之前知情的公司内部人的利润增加。我分析了内幕交易监管对56个不同国家的5,099宗收购的影响,并从公告前几周的异常交易量估计内幕交易的利润,假设内部人士以当时的价格购买这些股票并持有到公告发布。我发现,起诉内幕交易的法律并没有消除内幕人士获得的利润,反而使收购变得更加昂贵。因此,通过增加市场对收购的反应,内幕交易法使违反这些法律变得有利可图。
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引用次数: 178
The Impact of Macroeconomic and Financial Variables on Market Risk: Evidence from International Equity Returns 宏观经济和金融变量对市场风险的影响:来自国际股票收益的证据
Pub Date : 2000-08-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.249330
Dilip K. Patro, Yangru Wu, John K. Wald
Using a GARCH approach, we estimate a time-varying two-factor international asset pricing model for the weekly equity index returns of 16 OECD countries. We find significant time-variation in the exposure (beta) of country equity index returns to the world market index and in the risk-adjusted excess returns (alpha). We then explain these world market betas and alphas using a number of country-specific macroeconomic and financial variables with a panel approach. We find that several variables including imports, exports, inflation, market capitalisation, dividend yields and price-to-book ratios significantly affect a country’s exposure to world market risk. Similar conclusions are obtained by using lagged explanatory variables, and thus these variables may be useful as predictors of world market risks. Several variables also significantly impact the risk-adjusted excess returns over this time period. Our results are robust to a number of alternative specifications. We further discuss some economic hypotheses that may explain these relationships.
本文采用GARCH方法,对16个经合组织国家的股票指数周收益率进行了时变双因素国际资产定价模型估计。我们发现国家股票指数回报对世界市场指数的敞口(beta)和风险调整后的超额回报(alpha)存在显著的时间变化。然后,我们用面板方法使用一些特定国家的宏观经济和金融变量来解释这些世界市场的贝塔和阿尔法。我们发现,包括进口、出口、通胀、市值、股息收益率和市净率在内的几个变量显著影响一个国家对全球市场风险的敞口。通过使用滞后的解释变量也得到了类似的结论,因此这些变量可以作为世界市场风险的预测因子。在这段时间内,几个变量也显著影响了风险调整后的超额回报。我们的结果对于许多可选规范都是健壮的。我们进一步讨论了一些可以解释这些关系的经济假设。
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引用次数: 46
The Deterring Role of the Medium of Payment in Takeover Contests: Theory and Evidence from the U.K. 支付媒介在收购竞争中的威慑作用:来自英国的理论与证据
Pub Date : 2000-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.231839
Dušan Isakov, P. Cornu
The deterring role of the medium of payment in a takeover contest is analyzed from the point of view of the bidder. Cash, debt and equity are considered as alternative mediums of payment, and the bidder equilibrium strategies are specified following the Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium requirements for a signaling game. The model predicts notably that cash offers signal a high-valuing bidder, strongly determined to acquire the target firm.
从竞买者的角度分析了支付媒介在收购竞争中的威慑作用。将现金、债务和股权作为可选择的支付媒介,并根据信号博弈的完全贝叶斯均衡要求指定竞标者的均衡策略。该模型特别预测,现金报价表明出价高的竞标者有收购目标公司的强烈决心。
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引用次数: 18
期刊
Wiley-Blackwell: European Financial Management Journal
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