Pub Date : 2019-06-27DOI: 10.4067/S0718-090X2019000100023
Tiffany D. Barnes, Tomás Ciocci, Débora Lopreite
What explains women’s inclusion in sub-national cabinet positions? While much of the existing literature has examined women’s appointments to national ministerial cabinets, scholars have not considered women’s access to provincial level cabinets. To address this gap, we adopt the conventional wisdom of a supply and demand approach to evaluate the ndings at the subnational level. Using an original time series dataset from 1992-2016 across all 24 subnational jurisdictions, we find that demand factors are more relevant as the probability that women are appointed ministers increases when cabinets are larger, when there is a female governor, and when the governor belongs to a peronist coalition; conversely, a larger legislative contingent of the governor’s party decreases the probability of appointing women.
{"title":"Evaluación de la presencia de mujeres en gabinetes subnacionales de Argentina (1992-2016)","authors":"Tiffany D. Barnes, Tomás Ciocci, Débora Lopreite","doi":"10.4067/S0718-090X2019000100023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4067/S0718-090X2019000100023","url":null,"abstract":"What explains women’s inclusion in sub-national cabinet positions? While much of the existing literature has examined women’s appointments to national ministerial cabinets, scholars have not considered women’s access to provincial level cabinets. To address this gap, we adopt the conventional wisdom of a supply and demand approach to evaluate the ndings at the subnational level. Using an original time series dataset from 1992-2016 across all 24 subnational jurisdictions, we find that demand factors are more relevant as the probability that women are appointed ministers increases when cabinets are larger, when there is a female governor, and when the governor belongs to a peronist coalition; conversely, a larger legislative contingent of the governor’s party decreases the probability of appointing women.","PeriodicalId":279932,"journal":{"name":"Revista de ciencia política (Santiago)","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126049177","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-06-27DOI: 10.4067/S0718-090X2019000100075
Matías Bargsted, Nicolás M. Somma, Benjamín Muñoz-Rojas
Through an age-period-cohort analysis applied to survey data from 1994 to 2015, we seek to understand the decline in electoral participation that has occurred in Chile during the current democratic era. Our analysis confirms some previous hypotheses, but it also illuminates some new trends. First, we find cohort effects indicating that the generations that voted during the 1988 Plebiscite tend to vote more often than those who became eligible during the democratic era. Second, Chileans’ propensity to vote increases with age, although this effect is much more pronounced among cohorts born after 1970. Finally, we find a strong and negative linear period effect, whereby the propensity to vote among all age groups has declined universally.
{"title":"Participación electoral en Chile. Una aproximación de edad, período y cohorte","authors":"Matías Bargsted, Nicolás M. Somma, Benjamín Muñoz-Rojas","doi":"10.4067/S0718-090X2019000100075","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4067/S0718-090X2019000100075","url":null,"abstract":"Through an age-period-cohort analysis applied to survey data from 1994 to 2015, we seek to understand the decline in electoral participation that has occurred in Chile during the current democratic era. Our analysis confirms some previous hypotheses, but it also illuminates some new trends. First, we find cohort effects indicating that the generations that voted during the 1988 Plebiscite tend to vote more often than those who became eligible during the democratic era. Second, Chileans’ propensity to vote increases with age, although this effect is much more pronounced among cohorts born after 1970. Finally, we find a strong and negative linear period effect, whereby the propensity to vote among all age groups has declined universally.","PeriodicalId":279932,"journal":{"name":"Revista de ciencia política (Santiago)","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122362755","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-06-27DOI: 10.4067/S0718-090X2019000100099
J. Lindh, J. Fábrega, Jorge González
This article presents evidence of political, socioeconomic and generational polarization among the Chilean population between 1990 and 2017. Using data from the Public Opinion Survey of the CEP, the ideology of the individuals is estimated indirectly using the methodology developed by Poole (1998). The main findings are the following: (i) in 1993, adherents and opponents of the current government initiated a process of ideological distancing that was consolidated in mid-2008; (ii) the ideological distance between high and low socioeconomic levels began to increase from 2005 onwards; and finally, (iii) the generation born before 1955 began to distance itself ideologically from the one born after 1980, since 2011.
{"title":"La fragilidad de los consensos. Polarización ideológica en el Chile post Pinochet","authors":"J. Lindh, J. Fábrega, Jorge González","doi":"10.4067/S0718-090X2019000100099","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4067/S0718-090X2019000100099","url":null,"abstract":"This article presents evidence of political, socioeconomic and generational polarization among the Chilean population between 1990 and 2017. Using data from the Public Opinion Survey of the CEP, the ideology of the individuals is estimated indirectly using the methodology developed by Poole (1998). The main findings are the following: (i) in 1993, adherents and opponents of the current government initiated a process of ideological distancing that was consolidated in mid-2008; (ii) the ideological distance between high and low socioeconomic levels began to increase from 2005 onwards; and finally, (iii) the generation born before 1955 began to distance itself ideologically from the one born after 1980, since 2011.","PeriodicalId":279932,"journal":{"name":"Revista de ciencia política (Santiago)","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121715701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-08-01DOI: 10.4067/s0718-090x2018000200281
Jonas Wolff
{"title":"Ecuador after Correa: The Struggle over the “Citizens' Revolution”","authors":"Jonas Wolff","doi":"10.4067/s0718-090x2018000200281","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4067/s0718-090x2018000200281","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":279932,"journal":{"name":"Revista de ciencia política (Santiago)","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130773484","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-08-01DOI: 10.4067/S0718-090X2018000200155
M. Centellas
The year 2017 was marked by growing uncertainty about the future as Evo Morales continued to prepare for yet another presidential campaign despite growing resistance and a 2016 referendum in which voters rejected a constitutional amendment that would allow Morales to seek a fourth term. The year was also dominated by plans for the December judicial elections, which were just as problematic as they had been in 2011. While economic indicators remained generally positive, there was also growing concern about the future of the economy. 2017 was also the first year that the quality of Bolivian democracy declined significantly, suggesting that 2018 could be a defining year for the country.
{"title":"Bolivia in 2017: Headed into Uncertainty","authors":"M. Centellas","doi":"10.4067/S0718-090X2018000200155","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4067/S0718-090X2018000200155","url":null,"abstract":"The year 2017 was marked by growing uncertainty about the future as Evo Morales continued to prepare for yet another presidential campaign despite growing resistance and a 2016 referendum in which voters rejected a constitutional amendment that would allow Morales to seek a fourth term. The year was also dominated by plans for the December judicial elections, which were just as problematic as they had been in 2011. While economic indicators remained generally positive, there was also growing concern about the future of the economy. 2017 was also the first year that the quality of Bolivian democracy declined significantly, suggesting that 2018 could be a defining year for the country.","PeriodicalId":279932,"journal":{"name":"Revista de ciencia política (Santiago)","volume":"49 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126170172","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-08-01DOI: 10.4067/S0718-090X2018000200361
M. Arce, José Incio
The popular Peruvian saying that “one suffers, but enjoys” summarizes the year 2017 nicely. The year saw numerous social, political, and economic difficulties in Peru. The incumbent government had to face the ravages of El Nino, ministerial crises, and vacancy requests, among other things, while at the same time the economy was slowing down and poverty increasing. However, we believe that for most Peruvians, 2017 was also a joyous year, especially considering the agonizing classification of the Peruvian team in advance of the World Cup after 36 years of absence. In this article, we summarize the social and political context of 2017, focusing on the executive-legislative axis that determined the most important political events during the year of analysis. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/s0718-090x2018000200361
{"title":"Perú 2017: un caso extremo de gobierno dividido","authors":"M. Arce, José Incio","doi":"10.4067/S0718-090X2018000200361","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4067/S0718-090X2018000200361","url":null,"abstract":"The popular Peruvian saying that “one suffers, but enjoys” summarizes the year 2017 nicely. The year saw numerous social, political, and economic difficulties in Peru. The incumbent government had to face the ravages of El Nino, ministerial crises, and vacancy requests, among other things, while at the same time the economy was slowing down and poverty increasing. However, we believe that for most Peruvians, 2017 was also a joyous year, especially considering the agonizing classification of the Peruvian team in advance of the World Cup after 36 years of absence. In this article, we summarize the social and political context of 2017, focusing on the executive-legislative axis that determined the most important political events during the year of analysis. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/s0718-090x2018000200361","PeriodicalId":279932,"journal":{"name":"Revista de ciencia política (Santiago)","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133950517","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-08-01DOI: 10.4067/s0718-090x2018000200409
J. Buxton
{"title":"Venezuela: Deeper into the Abyss","authors":"J. Buxton","doi":"10.4067/s0718-090x2018000200409","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4067/s0718-090x2018000200409","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":279932,"journal":{"name":"Revista de ciencia política (Santiago)","volume":"60 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122843854","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-08-01DOI: 10.4067/S0718-090X2018000200125
Carlos Freytes, Sara Niedzwiecki
The Cambiemos victory in the midterm elections was the most important political event in Argentina during 2017. The government achieved this result by managing the inter-temporal dynamics of economic adjustment. Before the elections, the government deferred unpopular measures and pursued an economic policy that, beyond empowering the winners (mainly the agricultural sector), compensated the losers (workers, seniors, and the informal sector) by increasing their income. The counterpart of this strategy was a significant increase in the external debt stocks and the deterioration of fiscal and external accounts. After the elections, the elderly, the informal sector, and the middle class suffered a greater imposition of costs. This report analyzes Argentina’s government policies before and after the elections, paying particular attention to its strategy of deferring the costs of adjustment and its negotiation with winners and losers. Going forward, the government faces the difficult task of solving accumulated economic imbalances without eroding the social support that allowed it to prevail in the legislative elections. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/s0718-090x2018000200125
{"title":"Argentina 2017: la dinámica intertemporal de la reestructuración económica","authors":"Carlos Freytes, Sara Niedzwiecki","doi":"10.4067/S0718-090X2018000200125","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4067/S0718-090X2018000200125","url":null,"abstract":"The Cambiemos victory in the midterm elections was the most important political event in Argentina during 2017. The government achieved this result by managing the inter-temporal dynamics of economic adjustment. Before the elections, the government deferred unpopular measures and pursued an economic policy that, beyond empowering the winners (mainly the agricultural sector), compensated the losers (workers, seniors, and the informal sector) by increasing their income. The counterpart of this strategy was a significant increase in the external debt stocks and the deterioration of fiscal and external accounts. After the elections, the elderly, the informal sector, and the middle class suffered a greater imposition of costs. This report analyzes Argentina’s government policies before and after the elections, paying particular attention to its strategy of deferring the costs of adjustment and its negotiation with winners and losers. Going forward, the government faces the difficult task of solving accumulated economic imbalances without eroding the social support that allowed it to prevail in the legislative elections. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/s0718-090x2018000200125","PeriodicalId":279932,"journal":{"name":"Revista de ciencia política (Santiago)","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131132005","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-08-01DOI: 10.4067/S0718-090X2018000200335
A. Carrizosa
Paraguayan politics in 2017 was dominated by two central events: 1) the attempt to modify the constitution to allow for presidential reelection, and 2) party primaries in anticipation of the 2018 general elections. The amendment to allow for reelection was not approved, but the informal procedures through which it was advanced resulted in the destruction of the Congress building and the loss of a life. On the other hand, the same factions that competed over the reelection amendment also competed in the party primaries but in an organized and peaceful manner. By summarizing the main political, social and economic events that happened in Paraguay in 2017, this article suggests that institutionalized processes allow for the resolution of conflicts in a more constructive way. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/s0718-090x2018000200335
{"title":"Paraguay 2017: competencia política en las Cámaras, en las calles y en las urnas","authors":"A. Carrizosa","doi":"10.4067/S0718-090X2018000200335","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4067/S0718-090X2018000200335","url":null,"abstract":"Paraguayan politics in 2017 was dominated by two central events: 1) the attempt to modify the constitution to allow for presidential reelection, and 2) party primaries in anticipation of the 2018 general elections. The amendment to allow for reelection was not approved, but the informal procedures through which it was advanced resulted in the destruction of the Congress building and the loss of a life. On the other hand, the same factions that competed over the reelection amendment also competed in the party primaries but in an organized and peaceful manner. By summarizing the main political, social and economic events that happened in Paraguay in 2017, this article suggests that institutionalized processes allow for the resolution of conflicts in a more constructive way. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/s0718-090x2018000200335","PeriodicalId":279932,"journal":{"name":"Revista de ciencia política (Santiago)","volume":"31 2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124659569","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-08-01DOI: 10.4067/S0718-090X2018000200181
Pedro Feliú
The year 2017 demonstrated the capacity the Brazilian president to approve his governmental agenda and secure solid, majority support in the National Congress. Despite the unfavorable economic and social situation, as well as very low popular support, Temer approved a deep labor reform and rejected denunciations of corruption in the legislative branch. Through the distribution of important ministries to allied parties and the formation of an ideologically homogeneous partisan coalition, President Temer demonstrated the governability of Brazilian coalition presidentialism. Recent policy changes, including to foreign policy, have exemplified the president’s dominance in Brazilian politics, especially the ability to mobilize the resources of the office in the delicate task of organizing a coalition in a context of high party fragmentation. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/s0718-090x2018000200181
{"title":"Sobreviviendo a reformas, impopularidad y casos de corrupción: el presidencialismo de coalición del Brasil de Temer","authors":"Pedro Feliú","doi":"10.4067/S0718-090X2018000200181","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4067/S0718-090X2018000200181","url":null,"abstract":"The year 2017 demonstrated the capacity the Brazilian president to approve his governmental agenda and secure solid, majority support in the National Congress. Despite the unfavorable economic and social situation, as well as very low popular support, Temer approved a deep labor reform and rejected denunciations of corruption in the legislative branch. Through the distribution of important ministries to allied parties and the formation of an ideologically homogeneous partisan coalition, President Temer demonstrated the governability of Brazilian coalition presidentialism. Recent policy changes, including to foreign policy, have exemplified the president’s dominance in Brazilian politics, especially the ability to mobilize the resources of the office in the delicate task of organizing a coalition in a context of high party fragmentation. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/s0718-090x2018000200181","PeriodicalId":279932,"journal":{"name":"Revista de ciencia política (Santiago)","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124909799","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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